cover of episode The battle for Congress

The battle for Congress

2024/10/22
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Burgess Everett
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Matt Friedman
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Matt Friedman:新泽西州第七选区是决定2024年众议院控制权的关键选区之一。该选区曾是共和党票仓,但在特朗普时代,随着郊区富裕选民和受教育程度较高人群向民主党转移,该选区已成为竞争选区。共和党候选人汤姆·凯恩试图塑造温和派形象,但他缺乏政治天赋和口才,难以有效回应批评。民主党候选人苏·奥特曼则强调堕胎权利,并利用凯恩在关键投票中的立场来攻击其温和派形象。凯恩则试图将奥特曼与激进立场联系起来。最终结果将检验郊区选民和女性选民的政治倾向变化。 Burgess Everett:2024年中期选举中,参议院的控制权至关重要,因为它关系到总统任命内阁成员、法官和最高法院大法官的确认。由于结构性原因,今年参议院的竞争与众议院和总统大选不同。民主党在参议院的优势很小,需要在一些红州取得意外的胜利才能保住多数席位。德克萨斯州的参议员泰德·克鲁兹虽然在2018年只以微弱优势获胜,但他依然面临挑战,因为他的极端保守立场使其在摇摆选民中不受欢迎。民主党候选人科林·奥尔雷德则强调克鲁兹对选民的忽视,并突出自己的两党合作形象。佛罗里达州的民主党候选人黛比·穆卡塞尔-鲍威尔面临着更大的挑战,她的知名度和筹款能力都相对较弱。民主党在参议院面临着严峻的保卫战,除了蒙大拿州和俄亥俄州等红州,他们还在宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州和密歇根州等传统战场州面临竞争。由于参议院选区结构的原因,共和党更有可能赢得参议院控制权,但民主党仍有机会,这取决于他们在一些关键州的意外胜利或民调出现重大误差。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is New Jersey's 7th District considered a key race for control of the House?

It's a competitive district that used to be solidly Republican but has shifted towards Democrats in the Trump era, making it crucial for determining House control.

Why did some traditionally Republican districts turn back to red in the 2022 midterms?

Some districts that turned blue as a reaction to Trump shifted back to red, indicating a subtler realignment that didn't result in a predicted 'red wave'.

Why is Tom Kean Jr.'s public speaking ability a concern for his campaign?

He's not a good public speaker and struggles with off-the-cuff questions, which could lead to gaffes that harm his election chances.

Why does Tom Kean Jr. avoid taking questions off the cuff?

He's cautious and rarely takes off-the-cuff questions to avoid gaffes that could jeopardize his election.

Why is Sue Altman's past association with the Working Families Party a liability?

Her opponent uses her past positions, like supporting defunding the police, against her to portray her as a radical liberal activist.

Why is the Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred significant?

It's a test of whether demographic shifts towards Democrats in Texas are enough to flip the state, potentially altering the Senate balance.

Why is Rick Scott's candidacy in Florida considered less favorable for Democrats than Ted Cruz's race in Texas?

Rick Scott's opponent, Debbie Mucarcel-Powell, is less polished and not raising as much money, making a Democratic win in Florida less likely compared to Texas.

Why is Sherrod Brown's reelection campaign in Ohio considered a toss-up?

He's running against a well-funded, attack-oriented candidate in a state that President Obama won but Trump did not, making his reelection uncertain.

Chapters
The episode discusses the key races that will decide control of the House in 2024, focusing on New Jersey's 7th District and the challenges faced by Republican Tom Kean Jr.
  • New Jersey's 7th District has shifted from solidly Republican to competitive due to demographic changes.
  • Tom Kean Jr. is a moderate Republican trying to hold onto his seat, but he faces challenges in public speaking and media interactions.
  • Kean's cautious approach and avoidance of off-the-cuff questions have become a liability.

Shownotes Transcript

Republicans are projected to take the Senate in November, but Democrats have a fighting chance to win the House — if they can turn out a broad anti-Trump coalition.

This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Peter Balonon-Rosen, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Matt Collette and Amanda Lewellyn, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Kristinsdottir, and hosted by Noel King.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)

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Republican Congressman Thomas Kean Jr. at a memorial for Ukrainian soldiers. His contested House seat is key to the control of the House of Representatives next year. Photo by Serhiy Morgunov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images.

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