The Risks and Opportunities of an AI Future — with Eric Schmidt
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Episode three twenty six, three six zero o serving southwest and oh and one nine hundred and twenty six. The first SAT took place latest exam for me of prostate exam. My doctor told me it's perfectly Normal to become aroused and even ejaculated. Having said, I still .

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Welcome to the three hundred and twenty six episode of the property board. In today's episode, we speak with arched a technologies entrepreneurs. He also previously service google chief executive officer atam prefer them at attack company.

He can ask to go there and type in your own name and you see what the world things of you, uh, later, he was the executive chairman and technical advisor we discuss with directed dangers and opportunity they I present in his latest book, genesis, artificial intelligence. Hope in the human spirit lets that sounds like a show on the hallmark channel uh in hell okay, what's happening um after vegas this week i've been at summit. It's beautiful.

Here is lovely. I love canada western bahaa skylight and a retire here when I retire mexico tics that the food amazing the people are incredibly cool. The service goal, I no joke, think that mexico is the best vacation deal in the world.

Anyway, when I headed to next, I got a vega tonight. Now that you ask doing a talk there tomorrow, they just trying to wait. Not so much fun, not so much fun.

That definitely kind of an unusual vive there. And then I go to L. A.

For a couple of days that the Better swimming. I say, hi, i'll be the guy alone at the bar. Love eating alone at the polar around.

Uh, how do you know if I like you? I stare your shoes and my mine anyway, then i'm back to vegas for a formula one which I am so excited about. I love IT that the city comes alive.

And then just because I like to keep on my travels, I heard the sample. O with the nicest hotel in the world is right now, I think the rosewood and sampo. I think rosewood is actually the best brand and high and hospitality isn't good to know a lot of inside here, a lot of inside IT.

Let's move on some news in the media and entertainment space. A netflix said that a record sixty million households world wide tuned to watch the boxing match between jake parameter. I'm sorry, i'm sorry. I just a quick announcement. This is very exciting. Um I just struck a deal as I told them i'm going to lie and you the first to know that who who is announced to be live streaming a fight between me and Jimmy Carter.

By the way.

if you get paid twenty million dollars, I must pay, I think, is twenty million. You have an obligation to either kick the shit out of someone or have the should kick out of you this kind of jb snored through your nose and just stay away from the guy. I don't buy IT.

I don't. I want my twelve dollars back. Netflix, uh, despite the disappointment in the fight, uh, jackpot did in fact defeat my tyson and eight rounds. Can you even call that a win, can you? The five was shown in over six thousand bars and restaurants across the us, breaking the record for the biggest commercial distribution in the sport.

But the record numbers came with a few hiker s views reported various tech issues, including slow loading times, picks, lab screens and a male functioning airpix ce from one of the commentators. And so we are one of male functioning a piece from one of the commentators. Data from down detector revealed that user reported out or just picked more than ninety five thousand around seven P.

M. Eastern time, frustrated fans flooded social media, criticized netflix for the poor streaming quality. Netflix, C, T, O, Elizabeth one, soon to be probably former C, T, O route to employees.

I'm sure many of you have seen the chat in the press, in the social media about call of the issues. We don't want to dismiss the poor experiences of some members. And now we have run for improvement, but still considered this event a huge success. Now there was a pretty big fuck up for you missed, specifically netflix, a tries to garner evaluation not of a media company, but of a tech company, which means jax is has to be pretty good at the ship.

And didn't you know exactly how many people are going to show up for this to you? Kind of weren't you able to start to estimate pretty accurately just exactly how many people would be daring and exactly the same time, and then test the ship that you beginning to smell a little bit like twitter in a presidential announcement that this is unforgivable for a fuck and tech company. Come on, guys, what you do? This isn't the first time netflix s is fumbled with a lot event last year.

Their love is blind. Ren atua faced a similar situation, leaving viewers waiting over an hour before recorded version was made available. And this brings up a bigger question with netflix is pushing in the live sports, including in a file game scheduled for Christmas and a major deal with uh W W E starting next year, can they deliver the kind of quality viewers expect that they get from breast cable? IT looks like what's old is new again and that we have taken for granted kind of the production quality of live T V.

And how difficult that is. That's one thing i'll say about morning joe or the view or even I think fox is a great they take they're great delivering T, V live and think CNN also does a fantastic job. Netflix isn't alone.

Other streaming platforms, including costs peacock, have also been getting in the live sports earlier this year. p. Cox, january staff came between the country city chiefs and miami dolphins, drew twenty three million viewers, which broke records.

Internet usage in the U. S. Get this. The game is responsible for thirty percent of internet traffic that night. That's a quick games.

This is all proof that the market for live sports on streaming platforms is a massive opportunity and companies are going to spend big. According the walls y journal, netflix is banging around seventy five million dollars for on a file game in the season. They also recently signed a ten year, five million dollar deal with W.

W, B. Used to be the live in sports were sort of the last, and the walls to be reached in broadcast cable, like we always have sports. And then the people with the cheapest st capital in the deepen st.

Spokesman t up and set take thursday night football. He will take the logan poll or j poll to take or logan and I can remember us, I mean, literally broadcast cable television right now. It's cyma twin said about going bankrupt.

IT was slowly than suddenly were in the suddenly stage of the decline of linear ad supported TV. IT has gotten really bad in the last few months. I had a breakfast with a former CEO CNN who is a lovely guy, and he said that CNN viewership versus the last election has been cut in half.

Can you imagine trying to zer? Our viewership is off fifty percent since the last time where attack on election advertising. My theory is that the unnatural, unearned torrent of cash at local new stations have been earning for the last twenty years about to go away.

What do we talk about, Scott? Tell us more what you saying. Effectively, a lot of smart companies, including I think, horse and others, i've got around and bought up these local new stations.

And why? Because they're going they, well, yeah, they are. But old people watch local news mostly to get the weather in local sports.

And because that Jerry dumpy is just so likeable in that how little number? There was a some old guy with good hair and rod shoulders who makes you feel comfortable and safe, and some some hot woman and authorities who still waiting for the call up to do daytime TV. Uh, and everybody, all people love this.

Uh, and old people vote. Now, what's happening? okay. So the numbers are in a million people watch the best shows on M S N B C, the average to seventy. It's mostly White and its mostly women.

So a seventy old White woman podcast, thirty four year old mail. Think about that also desire guys is different. People got a cable news to scientific their religion, or specifically to politics.

People come to podcast to learn the right guys is different. We tried to present our guest in a more aspirational light. We're not looking for a gotcha moment to alive on tiktok.

It's not, say, a twister phrase jad done in six minutes because we got a break for an open, induce constipation commercial life of, we don't do that shit. We sell zebra cooter. And I let the Greens and fundraising different kind of modern cool stuff like that.

Us of you, i'm wearing very shorts right now. By the way, I fuck and love this athletica. I get more.

My god, I look so good in the shirt, and no one looks not really looks good. No man looks good athletica. But I look less bad than I look at most athletic.

I love the fabric ics. Not even getting paid to say this weren't IT right now. So let's talk a little bit about netflix. It's up eighty one percent year today. Three story influx to ten bugs to share that a good news.

The bad news is I sold IT at eight box to share, and now at eight hundred and forty doors, dad, daddy would be live broadcasting of from his own fucking and glory. Am right now how I not been said, I want to time machine, get and go back, find me, kill me and then kill myself. Eight choices, good.

Anyways, amazon is up thirty four percent. I don't know that stock. Disney up twenty two percent.

My stock pick for twenty twenty four one of brothers. Discovery, down twenty two percent. Jesus, Chris malone, you fired the wrong guy.

Paramount, but always as of the guy who has overseen the destruction of about six years, seven percent, a shared hoder value sense. He talked too much as stupid people in the why this merger made any fun sense. Wait too much dead.

He's managed to pull out about a third of a billion dollars despite destroying a massive mana sharell der value. Paramount is down twenty eight percent year. Today, comcast is down two point three percent.

Comcast I think is arguable the best run of the cable folks um obviously not including netflix, which is just a ganger uh run company. So netflix has about two hundred fifty million users. Amazon prime video has two hundred million.

It's not fair though because you just automatically get IT with prime disney plus one hundred and fifty million a max ninety five I love max. I sold we sold our our series into netflix are big tech drama. Uh, well, I think most of us would have liked H B O because H B O has a certain culture that feeds kind of the water cooler.

K, that is you're talking about something um in streaming media, you're usually talking about something on max. But netflix is also got bigger reach. These are good problems. Who lose paramount is at sixty three million a who to forty nine peacock, twenty eight uh E S P M plus twenty six apple TV at twenty five I end and stars remember them at sixteen million. Effectively these guys have cheaper cap, but all they are absolutely killing lending TV.

Does that mean it's a bad business? Now there is someone's gona come in and roll up all of these assets between the back on my asset and Turner, uh, all the disney shit uh A B C, you're going to roll in ala no computer cash while cut cost faster, then the revenue declines. These businesses, while they seem to be going out of business pretty fast right now, I will probably level out out A, L still a small but great business.

I think that is something like four, five hundred million dollars in a day, because were still lot of people that depend on A L and rural areas for their dialog, for their animated. And you know, some people will kind of hang in there, if you will, but this is gonna be a distress play to stop this concentrate lucena. That these things you can never grow again to consolidate them, to start cut and cost one of the best investments ever made.

Yellow pages. We bought yellow pages company for about two or two and half times cash flow. Yeah, it's going it's going down by eight to twelve percent a year. But if you got cost faster than that by going and buying the other city yellow pages companies and then consolidating the staff, which is later for layoff people, and you can cut cost fast than eight percent, you have an increase in event to every year.

I still find across the entire asset class, and this is all rap ub uh in general, a basic aim that I have found holds water through the test of time around investing as the sexual is the lower the R Y. And if you look at asset classes in terms of their sex appeal, then for investing or Angel investing is fun. And for what I call fps, finally, important people that to and or but be clear, the only return to IT is a terrible asset class even if something works.

And at that stage, IT is very hard to predict. You're talking about one and seven maybe do well. And even at one company, likely you'll get washed out along the way. A little bump in the vcs have showed up in the washing out. IT is a very tough asset class to make money.

Venture does Better, but the majority of the returns are only crowded to a small number of brands and get all the deal flow, but a small number partners within that small number of firms. And then you have growth, uh, I think that's Better than you have IP s unfortunate. IP s uh, that winter is really ugly right now.

The IPO market, basically men in a prety big deep freeze for several years now, people keep thinking it's gonna back. We ve got excited about redit, but not a lot followed. And then you go into public company stocks.

It's impossible to pick stocks by index phone, then you get into distress or mature companies dive in place. And then what I love is distress. I find the distressed is the best asset class.

why? What business has the greatest likelihood of succeeding anything in senior care? why? Against the above, the less succeed. As people who want to be around old people reminds him of death, they're generally pretty boring. I know until to say they are just have so much experience times and people want to avoid them.

People want to hang out with hot Young people, right? And people want to hang out with hot Young companies specifically, capital wants to hang out with hot Young grown companies. And they don't like the way that old companies smell, so to make so they avoid them.

And that's why there's a great return on investment in distress. What's the learning here? Sex appeal and R I are inversely correlated. So yeah, if you want to invest in a members club downtown for the fashion industry and music industry have added, but keep in mind r line sexy al inversely correlated will be right back for a conversation with the action mate. Support for property comes from mint mobile.

You're probably paying too much for cell phone plan is one of those budgetary ary line items that IT was looks pretty ugly and IT might feel like there's nothing you can do about IT. That's where mint mobile has something to say. Mint mobile is latest deal.

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Support for the show comes from the new season of crucible moments, a podcasts. m. Sycophant capital, did you know that youtube started as a dating site? Probably not because I didn't go well. So how did the company pivoted from that failure to become the household name? IT is today on this reason of crucible moments, they're going to give you an inside look at that story and more, offering an unvaried history of some of tex influential companies told by the founders themselves.

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Welcome back is our conversation with mid a technologies entrepreneurs thrive and google former CEO air R Q. As I can find you.

i'm in boston. I'm at harvard and giving a speech to students later today.

No, nice. So let's just try. And do IT you have a new book out that you co author with the late Henry kiser titled genesis, artificial intelligence, hope in the human spirit. What is IT about this book? Or give us what you would call pillars of inside, here, around that'll help people understand the evolution of ai.

Well, the world is full of stories about what I can do, and we generally agree with those. What we believe, however, is the world is not ready for this. And there are so many examples, whether it's trust, military power, deception, economic power of the effect on humans, the effect on children that are relatively poorly explored.

So the reader of this book doesn't need to understand the eyes, but they need to be worried that the stuff is going to be unmanaged. dr. Kissinger was very concerned that the future should not be left to people like myself.

He believe very strongly that these tools are so powerful in terms of their effect on human society. That was important, that the decision to be made by more than just the tech people. And the book is really a discussion about what happens to the structure of organizations, the structure of jobs, the structure of power and all the things that people worry about. I personally believe that this will happen much, much more quickly. Then societies are ready, ready for, including in the united states, in china, it's happening very fast.

And what do you see is the real xing special thread here is a, is a that IT become santis is a misinformation incoming, equality, loneliness? What do you think are the kind of, first and foremost, s because concerns you have about this rapid evolution of ai.

There are many things to worry about before we testy the bad pins, let me remind you enormous improvements and drug capability for health care, uh, solutions to climate change, other vehicles each discovery and science, greater productivity for kind of everyone, a universal doctor, universal educator.

All of these things are coming um and those are fantastic, a long way you come with with because these are powerful yet especially in the hands of an evil person. And we know evil exists. These systems can be used to harm large numbers of people.

The most obvious one is their use in biology. Can these systems at some point in the future, generate biological pathogens that could harm many, many, many, many humans are today were quite sure they can't, but there's a lot of people who think that they will be able to unless we take some action. Those actions are being worked on.

Now what about cyber attacks? You have a long actor, a terrorist group, north korea, whom ever, whatever your evil personal group is, and they decide to take down the financial system, uh, using an a previously unknown attack vector so called zero day exploits. So the systems are so powerful that we are quite concerned that in addition to democracies using them for gains, dictators will use them to agree ate power, and they will be used in a, in a harmful in military context.

So i'm freak about about these A I girlfriends. I would feel as if the biggest threat in the U. S. Right now, longer, lonely, leads to extremism. And I see these, A I girlfriends and A I searches popping up.

And I see a lot Young men who have a lack of romantic economic opportunities, turning to A I girlfriends and begin to sequester from real relationships. And they become less likely to believe in climate change, more likely to engage massage genius to content to or from school. Their parents were in some, they become really shady citizens. And I think men Young are having so much trouble, that is, low risk entry into these foo relationships is just onna speed ball loneliness and the externalities of lonely your thoughts I completely .

agree there's lots of evidence that there's now a problem with Young men. Um in many cases the paths of successful Young men has been shall we say, they made more difficult because they not as educated as the women are. Now remember there more women in college than men, and many of the traditional paws are no longer as available. And so they turn to the online world for enjoyment and student, but also because of the social media algorithms they find like mighty people who ultimately radicalize them, either in a horrific way, like terrorism, or in the kind of way that you're describing, or they just now adjusted. This is an a good example of an unexpected problem of existing technology.

So now imagine that the A I girlfriend or boyfriend of the huge A I girlfriend as an example is perfect, perfect visually perfect emotionally and the A I girlfriend in this case captures your mind as a man to the point where see or whatever IT is takes over the way you thinking you're obsessed with her um that kind of obsession is possible. Special of people who are not fully formed. Parents are going to have to be more, more involved for all the obvious reasons.

But at the end of the day, parents can only control what their sons and daughters are doing within reason. We ve ended up, again, using teenagers as an example. We've all sorts rules about age of maturity, sixteen, eighteen, what have you? Twenty one in some cases.

And yet you put a twelve over thirteen year in front of one of these things. And they have access to every evil as well as every good in the world and not ready to take IT. So I think the general question of, are you mature enough to handle IT? Sort of the general version of your A I girlfriend example is unresolved.

And so I think people most people would agree that th Epace o f A I i s s cary, and that are institutions and our ability regulate are not keeping up with th Epace o f e volution h ere. And we see what perfectly they what happened with social around this, what can be done, how, how what's an example or a construct or framework that you can point to, where we get the good stuff, the drug discovery that help with climate change, but attempt to screen out, or at least put in check, or put in some guard rails around the bad stuff. What's what are you advocating for?

I think IT starts with having an honest conversation of where the problems come from so uh you have people who are absolutely on free speech, which I happen to agree with um but they confuse free speech of an individual versus free speech for a computer. I am strongly in favour of free speech for every human. I am not in favour of free speech for computers.

And the allegorist ms are not necessarily optimizing the best thing for humanity. So as a general point, specifically, we're going to have to have some conversations about what is what age are things. And we're also going to have to change some of the laws for examples, section to thirty, to allow for reliability in the worst possible cases.

So when someone is harmed from this technology, we need to have a solution to prevent further harm. Every new invention has created harm. Think about cars, right? So cars is used to hit everything, and they were very unsafe.

Now really, quite safe, truly, by comparison to anything in history. So the history, this in inventions, is that you allow for the greatness, and you please the guard technical, the guard rails. You put limits on what they can, they can do, and that's an appropriate debate, but it's one that we have to have now for this technology.

I am particularly concerned about the issue that humans, and earlier, about the effect of on human psyche. Doctor passenger who study can't was very concerned, and we write in the book at some length about what happens when your world view is taken over by a computer as opposed to your friends. You're isolated.

The computer is feeding you stuff. It's not, it's not optimized around human values. Go to bad. God knows what it's trying to do is trying to make money or something.

That's not a good answer. So I think most reasonable people would say, okay, some sort of thought. Fossil fuels are neck, I would argue, pesticides or not, but we standards and N, F, D, A.

Most people would, I think, loosely agree or mostly agree that some sort of regulation that keeps these things in check make sense. Now let's talk about big tech, which you were an instrumental player and you guys figured out away, quite Frankly, to over on washington at lobbies and avoid all reasonable regulation. Why are things going to be different now than what they were in your industry when you were involved in IT?

While president truong has indicated that he is likely to repeal the um executive order that came out of a president biden, which was an attempt at this. So I think a fair prediction is that for the next four years, they'll be very little regulation in this area as the president will be focused on of the things. Um so what will happen in those companies is if there is real harm, this liability, there's lawsuits and things.

So the companies are not completely Scott free. Our companies remember our economic agents and they have layers to jobs, protect their intellectual property in their goals. So it's going to take uh, i'm sorry to say, it's likely to take some kind of a calamity to cause A A change in regulation.

And I remember when I when I was in california, when I was Younger, california driver's, uh, licenses, the address on your driver's license was public and there was a horrific crime where a woman was followed to her home and then he was murdered based on that information. And then they changed the law. And my reaction was, didn't you foresee this right? You put a millions and millions of of license information to the public, and you don't think that some idiot whose horrific is gna harm somebody.

So my frustration is not that will occur r because i'm sure I will. But why did we not anticipate that? As an example, we should anticipate make a list of the biggest arms giving another example, um this system should not be allowed access to weapons.

Very simple. You don't want the A I deciding win the launch missile. You want the human to be responsible. And these kinds of sensible regulations are not complicated to state.

Are you familiar with character? Ai, I am really a just a horrific incident where a fourteen year old thinks establish a relationship with an A, I agent that he thinks he's a character of the game of for ones he's obviously unwell, although he minor standing us from his mother who's taken the song as the issue, understandably, uh, he did not qualify as someone who was mentally ill, establishes his very good relationship with obviously very nuance character and the night effect is he he contemplates suicide and SHE invites him to do that.

And you know, the story does not end well. In my view, eric, is that for waiting for people's critical thinking to show up or for the Better Angels of CEO of companies that are there to make a profit, that's what they're supposed to do. They're doing their job that we're just going have tragedy after tragedy after tragedy.

My sense is someone needs to go to jail. And in order to do that, we need to pass laws showing that if you're reckless with technology and we can reverse engineer to the death of a fourteen, that you are criminally liable. But I don't see that happening.

So I I would push back on the notion that people need to think more critically. That would be lovely. I don't see that happening.

I have no evidence that any c of a tech companies going to do anything but increase ed the value of their shares, which I understand that is a key component of capitalism. IT feels like we need laws that either remove this liability shield. I mean, does any of this change until someone shows up in an orange jumpsuit?

I can tell you how we do with us a google. We had a rule that in the morning we would look at things, and if there were something that looked like real harm, we would resolve IT by noon and we would make the necessary adjustments. The example that you gave is horrific, but it's all too common, and it's gna get worse for the following reason.

So now imagine you have a two year old, and you have a the cold land of a bear. That is the two year old's best trend. And every year, the Better the bear gets smarter and the two year old gets smarter, two becomes three, four, five.

And so fourth, that now fifteen year olds best trend will not be a boy or girl of the same age. It'll be a digital device. And such people in, highlighted in your terrible example, are highly suggestible.

So either the people who are building the equivalent of that bear ten years from now are going to be smart enough to never suggest harm, or they're gone to get regulated and criminalized. Those are the choices. The technology used to say that the internet is really wonderful, but it's full of misinformation, and there's an off button for a reason.

Turn that off. Can't do that anymore. The intern is so intertwined in our luck daily lives, all of us, every one of us, for the good and bad, that we can't get out of the suss pool if we think it's access pool and we can't make IT Better because IT keeps coming out of the industry.

To to answer your question, the industry is optimize to maximize your attention and monetized. So that behavior or is gonna continue? The question is how do you manage the extreme cases? Anything involving personal harm of the nature that you're describing will be regulated one way or the other?

Yeah at some point this is the damage and current til then, right IT. If we've had forty congressional hearings on child safety and social medium with .

a zero laws in fairness that um there was a there is a very, very extensive set of laws around child sexual abuse, which is obviously as well and and those those laws are univerSally um implemented and wallet here too. So we do have examples where everyone agrees with the harm is I think all of us would agree that a suicide of a teenager is not okay.

And so regulating the industry so IT doesn't generate that message strikes me as a greiner, the ones we should be much harder aware. The system has, has essentially captured the emotions of the person and is feeding them back to the person, as opposed to making suggestions. And that, and we talk about this in the book, when the system is shaping, you're thinking you are being shaped by a computer.

You're not shaping IT. And because these systems are so powerful, we worry in, again, we talk about this in the book, of the impact on the perception of truth and of society. how? Who am I? what? What do I do? And ultimately, one of the risks here, if we don't get this under control, is that we will be the dogs to the powerful A I as opposed to us telling the A I what to do.

Um a simple answer to to the question when is the industry believes that within five to ten years these systems will be so powerful that they might be able to do self learning and this is a point where the system begins to have its own actions, its own religion. It's called evolution. It's called general intelligence. I as is called and the arrival of agi will need to be regulated. Will we write back?

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We know that social media and a lot of these platforms and apps and time on, time on found. Is this not a good idea? Curious what you think of my colleagues were JoNathan height.

And that is, is there any reason for anyone under the age of fourteen to have a smart phone? And is there any reason for anyone under the age of sixteen to be on social media? Should we age gate, pornography, alcohol, the military, shouldn't we? Specifically, the device makers and the Operating systems, including your old firm, should they get in the business of age gating?

Ah they should an indeed, Johnson's work is incredible. He and I wrote an article together two years ago, which called for a number of things in the area of regulating social media. And we start with changing a law called copa from thirteen to sixteen.

And we are quite convinced that using various techniques, we can determine the age of the person with a little little work. And so people say, what? You can even IT what that mean? You shouldn't try. And so we believe that at least the principle effects of this technology on below sixteen can be addressed. Uh, when I think about all of this, to me, the the we want children to be able to grow up and and grow up in with humans as france.

And i'm sure with the power of A I arrival, if you're going to see a lot of regulation about child content, what can a child below sixteen see? This does not answer the question of what do you do with the twenty year old, right, who is also still being shaped. And as we know, uh, men develop a little bit later than women, and so will focus on the other development, who's having trouble in college or what have you? What do we do with them? And that question remains .

open in terms of the idea that the genius is out of the bottle here. And we face a very real issue or full term attention, and that is we want to regulate IT. We want to put in guard rails at the same time.

We want to let our you know, our sprinters and our IP and our minds and our universities and our incredible for profit machine, we want to let IT run, right? And the fear is that if you regulated too much, the chinese or, you know, the islam republic isn't quite as concerned and gets ahead of us on this technology. How do you baLance that tension?

So there are quite a few people in the industry, along with myself, who are working on this. And the general idea is relatively light regulation, looking for the extreme cases. So the worst, the extreme events, would be a biological attack as cyber attack, something that harmed a lot of people as opposed to a single individual, which is always a tragedy.

Any misuse of these in war, any of those kinds of things we worry a lot about. And there's a lot of questions here. One of them is, do you think that if we had A H. I system that developed away to kill all of the, all of the soldiers from the opposition in one day that I would be used. And I think the answer from a military general perspective would be yes.

The next question is, do you think that the north koreans, for example of the chinese, will debate the same rules about when to apply that? And the answer is, no one believes that they would. They would do IT safely and carefully under the way the U.

S. Law would require. U. S. Law has A A law called person in the luper meaningful human control that tries to keep these things from going out of hand.

So what I actually think is that we don't have a theory of deterrence with these new tools. We don't know how to deal with the spread of them. And the simple example, and sorry, for the diversion for a sect, but there's close source and open source.

Closed is like you can use IT, but the software and the numbers are not available there. Other systems called open source, where everything is published, china has now has two of what appeared to be the most powerful models ever made, and they are completely open and, uh, grab acy. You are not not in china.

And I don't know why china made a decision to release them, but surely evil groups and so forth will start to use those. Now maybe they don't speak chinese or or what have you, or maybe the chinese just discount to risk. There's a real risk of deliberation of systems in the hands of terrorism.

And the prolific is not going to occur by misusing microsoft, google or what have you is going to be by making their own servers in the dark web. And an example, a worried that we all have, is exploitation of the models. Or give an example, google, microsoft or OpenAI spends two hundred million dollars or something to build.

One of these models are very powerful. And then some evil actor manages to exhilarate IT out of those companies and put in on the dark web. We have no theory of what to do when that occurs because we don't control the dark web, we don't know how to detect IT and so forth.

In the book, we talk about this and say that eventually the network systems globally will have fairly sophisticated supervision systems that will watch for us because it's another example of proliferation. It's analogous to the spread of interest uranium. If anyone tried to do that, there's an awful lot of monitoring systems that would say you have to stop right now or in a shoot.

So are you make a really cogent argument for the kind of extension al thread here, the weapon zone of A I by bad actors. And we have faced similar issues before. My understanding there are multilateral treaties around bioweapons, or we are nuclear arms treaties.

So is this the point in the time and time where people search yourself in our are our our defense infrastructure should be thinking about or trying to figure out multilight tal agreements? And again, the hard part there is my understanding is, is very hard to monitor things like this. And should we have something along the lines of interpol? It's basically policing ness. And then you fighting fire with a, with fire using A I to go out and find scenario where things look very ugly and move in with some sort of international force if feel like a time for some sort of multi national CoOperation is is upon us.

See your thoughts. Um we agree with you. And in the book we we specifically talk about this in a historical context of a the nuclear weapons regime, which darter kiser, as you know, invented largely.

What's interesting is working with him, we realized how long IT took for the full solution to occur. AmErica used the bomb in one thousand hundred and forty five. Uh, russia or union demonstrated to nine, nine, forty nine. So that's roughly because there was a four year gap and then there was sort of a real arms race.

And once that IT took roughly fifteen years for an agreement to come for limitations on this thing, during which time we were busy making an enormous number of weapons, which ultimately were a mistake, including, you know, these enormous bombs that were unnecessary. And so things got out of hand. In our case.

I think what your thing is very important that we start now. And here's where I would start. I would start with a treaty that says we're not going to allow anyone who is a signal of trying to have automatic weapons systems.

And by automatic weapons, I don't mean automated, I mean ones that make the decision on their own. So an agreement that any use of A I of any kind in a conflict sense has to be owned and authorized by a human being who is authorized to make that decision. That would be a simple example.

Another thing that you could do is part of that is say that you have a duty to inform when you when you're testing one of these systems in case get out of hand. Now whether this country treaties can be agree to, I don't know remember that I was the horror of nuclear war that got people to the table and IT still took fifteen years. I don't want us to go through an analogous bad incident involving an evil actor north korea again. I'm just using them as bad examples um or even russia today, we we obviously don't trust I don't want to run that experiment and have all that home and then say, hey, we should have been seen this well.

my senses. When we are Better to technology, we're not in a hurry for a multi lattle treaty, right? When we're under the impression that are nuclear scientists are Better than you were, are not too so smarter than you're not just kind of thing that we like.

We don't want a multiple old tree because we see and cares if you agree with this. We have Better A S than anyone else. Does that get in the way of a three? Or should we be doing this from a position of strength? And also, if there a number two and maybe you think we're not the number one, but assuming you think that the us.

Is number one of us. Who is the number two? Who do you think poses the biggest threat? Is that their technology or their intentions are both.

Who, if you were to here that one of these really awful things took place, who would you think most likely are the most likely actors behind? Is IT a rogue state? Is IT a terrorist group?

Is IT a nation state? First place, I think, that the short term threats are from rogue states and from terrorism. And because there, as we know, there is plenty of groups that seek harm against the elites in any country today, the competitive environment is very clear that the U.

S. With our partner, U. K, are giving example. This week, um there were two like libraries from china that were released open source. One is a problem solver is very powerful and another one is a large language model that equal I in some cases exceeds the one from meta with which they use every day is called lama. Three, four hundred billion.

I was shocked when I read this because I had assumed that are in my conversation with the chinese that they were, uh, two to two to three years late IT looks to me like it's within a year. Now to be fair to say, it's the U. S.

And in china within a year's time, everyone else is well behind. Now i'm not suggestion that china will want a rog attack against us. American city, I am, are legging that is possible that a third party could steal from china because it's open source or from the U.

S. If they're my level. And and do that. So the threat, the threat escalation tion matrix goes up with every improvement.

And today, the the primary use of these tools is to so misinformation, which is what you talked about. But remember that there is a transition to agents and the agents do think so. It's a travel agent or its you, whatever.

And the agents speak english that you give them english and the result they respond in english so you can can can catch ate them. You can literally put agent one, toxic agent two tox agent three tox agent four um and there is A A A schedule that makes them all work together. And so for example, you could say to these agents, design me the most beautiful a building in the world.

Go ahead and file all the permits, uh, negotiate the fees of the builders and tell me how what it's gona cost and tell my account that I need that and out of money. That's the command to think about that. I think about the agency, the the ability to put an immigrated solution that today takes a hundred people.

They were very talented, and you can do IT by one command so that acceleration of power could also be misused. Or give another example, you were talking earlier about the impact on social media. I saw a demonstration, uh, in england.

In fact, the first command was build a profile of a woman whose twenty five has two kids and SHE has the following, a strange beliefs, and the system wrote the code and created a fake persona that existed on that critical social media case. Then the next command was, take that person and modify that person to every possible step, type every race, sex, so er and so on, age everything with similar views and populate that. And ten thousand people popped up just like that.

So if you wanted, for example, today, this is true today. If you wanted to create a community of ten thousand fake influencers to say, for example, of IT smoking doesn't cause cancer, which, as we know is not true, you could do IT. And one person with a PC can do this. Imagine when the a eyes are far, far more powerful than they are today.

So one of the things the doctor kiser was known for, quite Frankly, appreciate with this notional rail politic. Obviously, we have aspirations around the way the world should be. But as a relates to decision making, we'll also going to be very consistent of the way the world is and makes them I mean, he's credited with a lot of very controversial slash difficult decisions depending on how you look at IT.

What i'm hearing you say leads all these roads to one place in my kind of critical thring king or lecture of brain. And that is there's a lot of incentive to kiss the makeup with china and partner around this stuff that if china in the U. S.

Came to agreement around what they're going to do or not do and bilateral ally created a security force and agreed not to sponsor proxy agents against the west each other, that we d have a lot that would be a lot of progress. That might be fifty six, eighty percent of the whole shooting matches. If the two of us could say we're gonna figure out a way to trust each other on this issue and we're going to fight the bad guys together on this stuff. Your thoughts.

So doctor ican reports, was the world's expert in china. He opened up china, which was one of his greatest achievements, and but he was also proud american, and he understood that china could one where the other. His view on china was the china, and order to whole book on this was the china wanted to be the middle kingdom is part of their history where they sort of dominated all the other countries, but it's not like america.

His view was they wanted to make sure the other countries would so so felt to china. In other words, do what they wanted. And occasionally, if if they didn't do something, china within extract some payment, such as invading the country, was roughly what Henry would.

So so he was a very much a real alist about china as well. His view would be at odds today with trumps view in the U. S.

governments. The U. S. Government is completely organized today around decoupling. That is literally separating. And his view, which I can report actually, because I went to china with him, was that we're never going to be great friends, but we have to learn how to co. exist.

And that means detailed discussions on every issue at great length to make sure that we don't alarm each other or frightened each other. He is further concern was not that present SHE would wake up tomorrow and invade taiwan, but that you would start with an accident and then there would be an escalating latter. And that because the emotions on both sides, you'd end up just like a war, war one.

We started with a, uh, uh, a shooting in syria. Vo, that ultimately, people found in a few months that they were in a war, war that they did not want and did not expect. And once in the war, you have to fight.

So the concern with china would be roughly that we are co dependent and we're not best friends. Being dependent is probably Better than being completely independent. That is not independent because IT force, this is some level of understanding and .

communication emit is a technologist, entrepreneur, philanthropist, twenty twenty one. He founded the special competitive studies project and on profit, initiated the strength in america's long term competitiveness in A I and technology more broadly. Before that, eric service is google's chief executive officer and chairman and later as executive chairman and technical advice, or he joins us from boston air in additional intelligence.

I get to send your hearts in the right place. You're using your human and financial capital to try and make the world a Better place. Really appreciate you and your work.

Have happened and at this um gathering called summit and i've been struck by how many people are successful, or at least the appears to make successful such rich kids but they do seem to be economically secure or over educated. Interesting, some of them started sold businesses. But what he sees a lot of people searching, i'll say shut like while i'm just taking here to really focus on improving my sleep.

Okay, no, that's sleep supposed to be party your arsenal and somewhere you're fighting this war. You need good sleep, but I don't think you should take a year to focus on any somehow. But this notion of finding a purpose, what I have found ders, and this is probably one of the accusations of A A prosper society, is ask yourself, do you have the wrong amount of money? Do you have just the wrong amount of money? What I mean by that? Obviously, the worst amount of money is not enough.

But a lot of my friends and a lot of people, I think, at this summit suffer from just having the wrong amount of money. What do I mean by that? They have enough money so they don't have to do something right away, but they don't have enough money to retire or going to philanthropy or really pursue something creative, not not make money.

That's exactly the wrong amount of money. And I would say a good fifty percent of my friends who kind of hit a wall, god stock experiences the first failure. H, sit around and wait for the perfect thing and wake up one, two, three years later, and really don't have a professional purpose or a professional source of gravity.

And you know, that kind of basic stuff, right? Uh, do something in the end, save others being service to others. But more than anything, I think the call sign is uh, just now and that is don't at perfect be the enemy a good and uh give yourself a certain amount of time to find something.

And within that amount of time, when IT collapses, take the best thing that you have and IT might not be the IT might not put to the expectations that you have yourself or be really exciting or dramatic or really lucrative. But they think about working is IT leads to other opportunities. And what I see is a lot of people who kind of are cast into the wilderness and then come out of the wilderness with no fucking on skills, and that, as you would be surprised, how much of roller cks and your skills are attack phy.

And so what is the key? Do you want to write a book? Do you want to start a podcast? Do you want to try and raise a fun? You want to start a company? What is the key? What is the critical success factor? Is that finding the right peoples, that finding capitals in thinking through is a positioning.

The concept is IT doing more research. Now the key is now you want to write a book, open your bucket and laptop and start writing, and it's going to be shit. But then when you go back and edit will be less shitty.

And then if you find someone to help you review and you find some people, it'll get dramatically, even less a shadier, right? You want to start a business. Nobody knows the only way you have a successful business as you start a bad one and you start hit orating.

But here's the key starting. You want to be an an on profit. You want to start helping other people will start with one person and see if, in fact, your infrastructure, your skills, your expertise, tangible change, the community, the environment or their life.

What is key to all of these three words? First in, second, o third W I have so many people I run across who are searching, not because they're not talented, not because they are not opportunity, but they're thinking they're going to find the perfect thing. No, find the best thing that is now and get started.

This episode is produced by Jennifer sanchez and Caroline chagrin. Joe burrow is our technical director. Thank you for listening.

The property power from the box media tork. We will catch you on saturday for no more, no more borton and please follow our property markets. Pod, whatever you get your pods from new episodes every monday and thursday.

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