The Pressure is On Pennsylvania For a Trump Victory
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We are four days out. Can you believe it, Blake? And this is the longest election I've ever been part of. This election has been going pretty much since the last one ended. It really has been four years, and we have four days left. Needless to say, everybody, if you haven't voted, you need to go vote. In fact, right now, I just chased under the ballot. There's somebody in Arizona that was like, I don't know if I'm going to go vote. And I said, oh, no, you're going to go vote. And we had a very stern conversation on my morning walk, and I just sent them the address, and boom, plus one for Trump in Arizona.

Look, everybody, I recently went viral yesterday for a couple days ago for saying, look, the early vote is a little bit tilting feminine. Now, mind you, this is to be expected. Young ladies and women in particular tend to be more compliant with paperwork and very interested in the micro and understand that.

One of the differences between men and women is that men are more focused on the macro and women are more focused on the micro. Men tend to procrastinate more. And the data shows that they will always show up later on Election Day. However, there is a risk involved in that. Isn't that, Blake? Because what if you have a 1% male decrease? 1% could just hand the entire election to Congress. Yeah, everything here is won and lost on the margins. I like to say...

Basically, each candidate has 45% of the vote entirely locked in. And so something that affects only half a percent of the vote, a quarter of the percent of the vote, is actually a much larger share of the vote that is actually up for grabs in the race. And so you can't do these things that just throw away a percent here, a percent there. That loses you the election or it can win the election. It is all about get driving turnout these next couple of days.

And right now, Mikey and our team just said, finally got this couple, their first time voting. They keep on making excuses. I told them I'm driving them at 5 p.m. today, and one of them voted for Biden in 2020. That is the way. That is the way. Just like, go find first-time voters. They were Biden voters. Get them in the car. We're going. Like, that is how you get new voters. Yeah.

And understand, we are getting closer and closer to game day where, look, I'm not going to go state by state. I'm going to make predictions. I'm not going to make predictions. However, it's fair to say, Blake, if we win Pennsylvania, the likelihood of us winning at this point is very high. Is that a fair analysis? It is emerging as...

In any model you run, it is by far the most important state where you say, if the candidate wins this, they are more likely to win the race. I think in like 85% of projections or so, the winner of Pennsylvania ends up winning the race on Nate Silver. And that's because North Carolina and Georgia have been looking fine. I wouldn't say they look great. They look fine in early voting, but we need to have a big election day in North Carolina. No slacking in any state. There's no slacking allowed anywhere.

whatsoever. I want to repeat this for those of you keeping score at home. Coming up on Tuesday, if we have a sleepy Tuesday, Kamala Harris wins. If we have an average Tuesday, we are going to have a knife fight of 10,000 votes here, 10,000 votes there, and Kamala might squeak it out. But if we have a triumph, if we have a historic,

surge on Tuesday. Then mind you, a lot of you guys deserve credit. You've done the work early. You've gotten low props out early. And that's what's so beautiful about early voting. Everybody is. I don't have to worry about those people now coming into Tuesday. Those are crossed off a list for all of you that got first time voters already. And there are tens of thousands of you.

How awesome is it now? You don't have to worry about them on Tuesday. You can go find another one. You can go find another low-propensity voter. You can now go nag somebody else. Now, it is really becoming battleground Pennsylvania. Do you have some of those numbers, Blake? If not, I can approximate them. I want to just walk through this, everybody, because if you've ever been to Pennsylvania, you have a friend there. If you live there – by the way, if you live in New Jersey, if you live in New York, if you live anywhere in the Eastern Corridor –

get in a car with your family and go have breakfast in a random diner in Scranton, wear a MAGA hat, be there for an hour and talk to 100 people. I'm not kidding. This is the whole civilization is around the Keystone State right now. So, Blake, walk us through the numbers. All right. So, first of all, I just kind of big picture. One reason we're going to be talking about this that we want to emphasize. Pennsylvania is where we can do

have the most impact right now. In Arizona, I think over half the vote is in, or around that, maybe more. Yeah, we're waiting for the latest drop. In Nevada, I think like 85% of the election will be in. This is the smartest point. It'll be in by election day. In a lot of states, we have a very high early vote volume.

In Pennsylvania, it's proportionally quite a bit lower. We've talked about this a bit in private. Pennsylvania has weird rules. Voting in person early. It's cultural. Voting in person on election day is like culturally. There's a bit of the cultural, but also it's just it is hard to vote in person early in Pennsylvania. That's why we had that mess in Bucks County.

Like you have to go to the county building. You have to fill out basically the mail ballot application and then they'll like do the whole application and then they'll give you your ballot and you have to fill it out right there. It's a it's a process. So what I'm saying is in states where we have very robust early voting like Arizona, we've been running ahead of Democrats. It's great. Pennsylvania, we are down there and they're getting optimistic about this right now.

The numbers about now are Democrats have 947,000 early votes in Pennsylvania. Republicans have about 553,000. So that's just under 400,000 vote gap. However, in 2020, it was 1.1 million. It was 1.1 million. So it's much closer than it was before. That doesn't mean, oh, we made a gain of 600,000 because you have to figure we have taken some Election Day voters and moved them early. That's just how it is. For sure. We don't know how much.

Yeah, I mean, definitely it is a good trend, but you don't want to overread into it. And so when you have that much, you can also think of it this way. In 2016, that's probably a better comparison than 2020 because turnout was supercharged in 2020. So we can maybe assume it'll be closer to 2016's numbers because you don't have COVID, everyone locked in, everything burning down. In 2020,

2016, you had 2.97 million votes for Donald Trump. You had 2.92 votes for Hillary Clinton. We won by total. Yeah. And with Biden and Trump, it was like 3.6 to 3.5. It was way more. Yes, it was 3.4 and a half to 3.7, three and a half. So and so you have you can kind of think of it as Democrats have banked about a million votes and they're going to need about three million, we'll say.

And we've banked about $500,000. So if we could get – there's some independence, but we won't sweat that too much. And by the way, just to be clear, some of the Dems are actually Trump voters. But let's not even count them. Let's go strict partisan analysis because that is the fairest way to do this. Yeah. So let's – and then there's about – let me check here the number of nonpartisan voters. That's 188,000.

So yeah, let's assume they're about 50. Let's just for arguments. Let's just for arguments say 50 50. So what you've got is you can imagine if we get it 50 50 the Republicans are at about 650,000 votes actually in. So if you want to put it this way, if we get two and a half million people to vote on Tuesday for Trump for Trump, we win.

I think that's a pretty safe figure to say. And the Democrats would struggle to match that. Is that correct? I think they would have. We've seen the signs in Pennsylvania where they're worried they're not getting the turnout that they would usually get. But that would only get Trump to 3.1 million, which is... So we're trending for lower turnout in Pennsylvania than 2020. I think...

generally people are expecting lower turnout. And if I feel like that makes it, maybe we want to target the 2020 numbers. That'd be great. So it's project 2.5, everybody. Not project 2025, project 2.5. If we can get 2.5 million people to vote for Trump on Tuesday in Pennsylvania, he's president of the United States.

And I'm not saying that as a proclamation. If Georgia holds, North Carolina holds. There's not a surprise anywhere else. But those are, we're talking about moving averages. That's a good, that's a good bet to make. It's a good bet to aim at, I think. So 2.5 million. And is that an unrealistic aim based on what we've seen? I don't think so. I think we've seen, I feel, the reason to feel optimistic, I think, is when we have places with good numbers like Nevada, we're seeing really high rural turnout. We're seeing great turnout from people who are our biggest base.

and in Pennsylvania...

We would see that, I think, pushed towards Election Day for the factors that we mentioned. And Trump has spent a ton of time. So if we can just see tons of people voting on Election Day in Pennsylvania, and we're emphasizing that because I believe in Pennsylvania, early voting is done. You can do it in Bucks County today, but it's done. Unless there's late mail returns, which are actually favoring us. Yeah, yeah. Late mail returns. So this data set. If you have a mail ballot, get that in. This data set is largely finito. But yeah, but you can't, like, we keep saying vote now. If you're in Pennsylvania and.

And you're living, you know, in Allegheny County. You, I believe, can't just go vote right now. You have to vote on Tuesday. That's right. And so don't make plans for Tuesday. No, not only that, if you live in Pennsylvania, I want to hear from you. Freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. You guys need to take Tuesday off and you need to go find every living human being. I mean, this is it. I mean, and by the way, I'll tell you a thought on this.

Rarely do we know the determinative state before election day. Usually it's like, oh, you need a combo of this, this, and this. Guys, it's all in. It's the poker chips. However, Kamala, she needs to defend three. We just need to win one. That was a great analysis, Blake. Thank you.

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We just got the latest Arizona early voting data file. Now, I need to double check this back against the file because this is from Seth Keschel, who's terrific. But I need to go into the back end and double check this. So take that because I have not independently done that. But I trust Seth. He's a great man. Republican lead in Arizona is now 176,000 above Democrats. At this time, we were down 70,000 votes to Democrats in 2020. So that is...

What is that? Three hundred forty thousand. No, two hundred forty thousand vote difference. Yeah. Versus 2020. Right. Because I'm just not. I missed the numbers. I was looking at the thing. I think I'm right. Yeah, I'm correct. And that is Republican plus eight point one percent in Arizona in early voting. And we have a lot of voters left that have yet to vote on my morning walk. I asked five men.

Have you voted? Oh, I'm voting this weekend or I will vote Tuesday. I got in their face and no, no, no. You need to get in the van. I know. Exactly. I said, get in the unmarked van. And again, in Arizona, it's a different culture because we have mass mail-in voting. We are using mass mail-in voting technology.

To our advantage in Arizona. It is a flawed system. There's an article today that's like how the right took over podcasting, the left's favorite vehicle of getting news. We want the articles about that for early voting. Like how the right weaponized early voting. Look, I don't love it, but I'll say this. If you outnumber the other side, it can be used to your advantage. Yes. If you have bodies and do the work. And yeah, it's just...

Use every tool available to you and don't leave anything on the table. And then the side that has more passion, more intensity, more sympathy from the public, it can help you a lot. And normally we would say, like, you know, maybe if it was only on election day, it would probably be great for the side that has the most passion. But what we're seeing is it seems the left has the advantage with the absolute politics fanatics.

Whereas we have the advantage with a lot of people who are just like, oh, wait, yeah, the economy was a bit better under Trump. I feel like I had more money then. And with a month of early voting, we have a month to find those people, nag those people, seize an opportunity to get those people to vote, whereas we would not be getting that if it was only on Election Day. So I want to just – I want to reiterate this, everybody. Yeah.

is that if you are not actively doing something to contact voters every minute from now to Tuesday, you're a spectator, not a participant. Well, postcards are a little late right now because you don't want a postcard arriving on Thursday. And Tuesday is drop-dead day, everybody. And I want to just contextualize this. Look at our movement from the Golden Escalator to Trump defeating 18 people in the primary in 2016.

From getting into the arena, being a great president, impeached twice, and the COVID stuff, and then all the nonsense of the 2020 election, and then January 6th, and they thought he was in political exile. And we climbed out of that hole. We climbed out of that ditch. We were, as a movement, in political exile. Is it ALBA? Is that right?

Elba or Alba? I always get that wrong. Elba and then St. Helena. But Helena's where he died, right? St. Helena's where he died. Elba's where he did the comeback and we don't talk about how it ended. So we were in Elba. And we rose and it'll be a better situation. We're going to win at Waterloo.

We're going to avoid Waterloo. Well, we'll win. Wasn't it that there was a very steep incline to the hill and they never should have fought that battle? Is that correct? You might be thinking of Pickett's Charge. But Waterloo was... We don't need to go on... That's a Project 2025 thing. Wasn't it a strategic issue? He probably should not have fought the battle. Hubris? Yes. Napoleon was a very confident man. Yes, to say the least.

And he wasn't as short as people say. No, he was like average height. It's all just British newspapers. Fake news is very old for the press. It's fascinating. They just caricatured him as short. And so this is the time, everybody, to really understand the Trump political movement has four days left. Now, of course, if he wins the presidency, it goes on in a different fashion. But him as a candidate has four days left. He's been shot.

indicted four times and facing 700 years in federal prison. Guys, this is the time for urgency and action. And also I want you to just enjoy these next four days, not as a spectator, but with joy that the other side doesn't have. I want you to think about this. You'll never get a chance to knock on doors for Donald Trump again. You will never get a chance to go tell someone to go vote for Donald Trump again. You will never, ever, ever get a chance to go talk in a diner, to go ask a neighbor to go vote for Trump again.

Ever. And for those of you that are super fans, for those of you that are 10 out of 10 super voters, you could be a part of history. Because after Tuesday, it's all about of, it's all looking backwards. Oh, Trump was, Trump was. Even if he's president, the political movement that was boring down that golden escalator has an end point.

And then it will be the birth of something new, God willing. The birth of an administration where we take back our country. And that's a whole different dynamic. But you guys are still in the driver's seat. There is time left on the clock. You can find those new voters. You can download the Turning Point Action app. You can chase ballots. But this nine-year movement has four days left.

Before I get to Steve Moore here, people say, but Charlie, the numbers in Pennsylvania, we are down. Yes, we expect to be down in early voting in Pennsylvania. We are down by 700,000 votes less than we were in 2020. That's the kicker. So the table is set that if we surge, we can win Pennsylvania. Joining us now is a great man and super smart.

economic analyst, someone I've known for a while, and fellow Chicagoan Steve Moore, author of The Trump Economic Miracle. Steve, welcome back to the program. Hey, Charlie. Good to be with you, by the way. Here it is. I love it. The Trump Economic Miracle. And by the way, guess who wrote the foreword to this book, Charlie? President Trump. He did. So we're honored to have him do that. He gives you a lot of credit. Great to be with you.

He really does. He gives you a lot of credit because Steve Moore was one of the people in the room that helped shape the Trump economic miracle. Steve, I want to get to the news today of the job reports. But first, I want to have you address there's nonstop propaganda that the Democrat super PACs are running, saying that Trump will crash the economy if he's president. This is a complete fabrication. Can you just address that right out of the gate to give our audience some intellectual ammunition to fight?

So I just wrote a column on this. So thank you for asking. This is precisely, I went back to 2016. Do you remember? This is exactly what they said. Remember, Charlie, in 2016? Oh, my God, Trump's going to cause a second Great Depression. He's going to crash the economy. He's going to crash the stock market. It's going to be worse than the Great Depression. And of course,

It turned out to be exactly the opposite. Trump caused an economic boom when he became president. And so what's so interesting

unbelievable is that the same people who got it completely wrong in 2016 are now saying exactly the same thing in 2024. Oh, my God, he's going to cause a Great Depression. He's going to crash the stock market. No, nobody could do more damage to the economy than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have done over the last four years. There's also a bunch of these Nobel Prize-winning

economics winners who basically said, oh, Trump's going to cause inflation. These are the same people when Biden came in. They all signed a letter in The New York Times saying, don't worry, but Biden's policies won't cause inflation. So they don't know which way is up either. Yeah, it's just it's pure propaganda. What do you have to say when they run these ads saying that Kamala Harris is for the middle class and Trump is only for the billionaire class?

Well, that's why we wrote the book, The Trump Economic Miracle, because the real miracle is that for the first time in decades, we saw substantial gains of income for the very middle class, working class people that you're talking about, Charlie. You know, I was on Sean Hannity's show last night on Fox, and I mentioned that if you go to – and you've been traveling around the country a lot, as I have –

I don't know if you've noticed this, but if you go into the really, really rich areas, the very wealthy suburbs, Beverly Hills and so on, all you see is Kamala Harris signs. But if you go to the middle class, working class areas of the country, all you see is Donald Trump signs. So I think that all you have to do is ask the American people and they will tell you. And incidentally, you've

Just some polls came out in the last 48 hours. Two thirds to three quarters of Americans say the economy is going in the wrong direction. Their personal finances are bad and the country is going in the wrong direction. So why don't we ask real Americans, not these so-called experts? Yeah, that is exactly right. And so let's play some piece of tape here of this is the last economic data right before the election.

This used to be like a big deal in the election. Now the media has suppressed it. Let's play. I believe Rick Santelli we have here. Let's play cut 101. It's an awful jobs report.

Jobs report and the prophecy came true. Jobs like twelve thousand, twelve thousand and nonfarm payroll. That is the light is going back to December of 2020. So give us a summary, Steve. What was the news today? Yeah, it was. I can't do better than Rick Santelli, although I was on Fox Business News when he was reporting that.

But we have the same impression that and this is just a fact that the private sector lost 40,000 jobs. By the way, do you know the one sector of the economy that grew in this report? Government. Yeah, government. Here we go again. You know, all they've done is grow government and grow debt and grow taxes and grow spending. And so that is what has led the economy all the way in the last three and a half years.

is big, massive increases in government spending. Incidentally, we ran a $2 trillion deficit in 2024, the fiscal year just ended. This is a dismal, dismal record. Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. A large retail store just canceled a huge order, leaving my pillow with a ton of extra pillows.

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Kirk. So Steve, for someone that doesn't understand the economic data as well as you do, can you go through some of the policies that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden did that drove the specific actions that have ruined our economy and increased inflation?

Well, that's an easy one. That's a layoff question for me, because, you know, the the and I think most of your listeners probably know the answer to this, which is Biden. Remember, we had a one and a half percent inflation rate when Trump left office, one point five percent. Eighteen months later, Biden and Kamala Harris come in and they wrecked the economy so badly. We're at nine point one percent.

So how did they do that? Well, they came in and they went on the biggest spending binge in American history, spending money on everything from green energy programs to massive welfare benefits to student loan bailouts. And they were just passing out free money. And how did we accommodate that? The Fed just printed money to pay for it. And everyone knows this from their Economics 100 course. Inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods. So when you print that kind of money, it's obvious you're going to have inflation.

quote-unquote inflation reduction act. And so just to repeat, the private sector lost jobs, this report. Is that correct, Steve? That's

That's right. In fact, manufacturing, construction and business services, three of the most important industries for, you know, upper middle income and middle income and working class people. We lost 100000 jobs in manufacturing, construction. Those are a lot of the union jobs. Sorry, Kamala and Joe Biden, you keep talking about how much you care about working class Americans. Those jobs were lost.

Yeah. And it's the worst jobs report since the height of COVID is what we are seeing. That's right. And so now let's get into some specifics here, Steve. What if Donald Trump becomes president, would you advise him to do out of the gate? What policies is he going to do to reverse course? One great thing about Donald Trump is, you know, I've loved working with, you know, with him for the last eight years and giving him advice. But the truth is, you know, he

He doesn't really need my advice. He knows what to do. He has great instincts on the economy. And so we're going to do right out of the gate. He told me he's going to have a stack of executive orders, two inches thick, first hours in the White House. And we're going to reverse a lot of the crazy things that Biden has done. We're going to build the Keystone. Remember the Keystone XL pipeline? Yes. We're going to rebuild that thing. Yes.

We're gonna get America out of the anti-America climate, what is it, the Paris climate change. Remember, Trump got us out of it and Biden put us back into it. So we're getting out of it again. We're going to relieve a lot of the regulations

For example, that you have to you can't have a gas stove or that you have to buy EVs. I mean, I don't I don't mind people having EVs. My wife and I have a have a hybrid. We love it, but we don't want the government telling us what kind of car we can buy. The electric vehicle mandate from the end. Just let's talk about energy in general, Steve. Just the amount if we can get back to energy independence and supremacy. Just talk about the ramifications throughout that.

the economy? Well, when you asked me about inflation, I should have added that another thing that contributed to inflation was that we dramatically reduced our energy production. And energy obviously is the input in every single thing. Every job in America is tied to energy and every product produced is tied to energy. So if energy prices go up, food prices go up, computer prices go up, your mortgage goes up, housing costs go up.

And so Trump is totally committed to using everything we've got, using our oil, our gas, our coal, our nuclear power. And not only that, but minerals. You know, you probably know this, Charlie, but the United States has five trillion dollars of minerals. We are the most mineral rich country in the world. And yet we're importing them. We're importing minerals, even though we have more than anybody else.

And so Trump is very much in favor of us using getting, you know, our copper and our uranium and our lithium and all this stuff, the precious metals. Why would we want to get those from China? It makes no sense. That is such a such a great point. In closing here, Steve, the economy is the number one issue on people's minds. President Trump is doing very well with it. The Trump economic miracle is.

what is an element of data that you have not mentioned in this discussion that you wish every swing voter knew? What is one thing that you wish they knew that is in the book, Trump economic miracle that you think is the most persuasive and important? Uh,

I think that the game set match statistic is basically that the average family, median family income, rose by $6,000 when Trump was president. After inflation, $6,000. That was the biggest ever. You know what it is under Biden?

Biden and Harris? I think if you count inflation, they're $10,000 poorer. Well, not $10,000. They are poorer, though. We've had a little bit of growth in the last nine months, but the average family has lost about $2,000 in purchasing power. So that's an $8,000 swing for the middle class. In other words, what I'm saying is the average family today is poorer than they were the day that Joe Biden came into office after four years. That's pathetic.

Steve, excellent work. Thank you so much. Trump economic miracle. Thank you. See you. Have a great one. Thanks. Let me synthesize what Steve just said. Would you go and vote if you got an $8,000 raise? Would you go and vote right now if you got an $8,000 bonus? That is what Donald Trump, that's what's on the ticket. You vote for Trump, you get an $8,000 bonus in purchasing power. And that's not a bunch of hocus pocus. That is strict economic data. That is the blue collar boom.

That's a great tweet, by the way. We should get that up. Again, that is not a bunch of woo-woo, as Blake would say. That is not a bunch of stuff in the clouds. That is an $8,000 bonus. Not to mention you get a border and not World War III. Again, if we get our message out, everybody, individually, the question is, are we going to have enough ground troops and out-of-state warriors

that are going to go to Pennsylvania this weekend. Listen, we have fans in Delaware right now. Get in the car and go to Pennsylvania this weekend. Say, hey, we're going to go to a diner and we're going to go to a restaurant. We're going to talk to people, wear MAGA stuff. Even if it's just one voter. If you live in rural Ohio, get in the car and go to Pennsylvania. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. I want to read Pamela's email here.

Charlie, I belong to a grassroots group in Allegheny, Pennsylvania that has a large number of members, over 500. Our group has been working tirelessly with door knocking, lit dropping, calling, texting, letter writing, and everything else that we can to help Trump. As I'm watching you right now, I am texting independents and undecided voters as the last push. Most of us are poll workers and poll watchers. I even trained to do tabulation poll watching on Tuesday. The reason I'm telling you is that a majority of members are voting on Tuesday. It's interesting. So these are high prop voters, majority of which are voting on Tuesday.

There are many intelligent women and men that are voting for Trump and have. We have Democrats that have joined our group. Wow. If we are any indication of the rest of Pennsylvania, we should be able to steal the deal. I asked the question, you are a great American. Does it feel better than it did in 2020? She says, yes. The momentum is with us. Pray, pray, pray. We have to fight until the last minute and then give it to God. She says also, one more thing our group has done. We filled out affidavits for 25,000 people, removing them from the voter rolls because they no longer lived at the address stated.

That's really good. I mean, this is a super... I want to meet Pamela. That's amazing. It's really great. So, Pamela, God bless you. You are what makes this country tick. Truly. So, the map is shrinking for us. And...

Again, don't sleep on Wisconsin. I also want to be very clear. If all of a sudden the news in Pennsylvania is not great, we can still win if we win out west and win Wisconsin. And you can vote this weekend in Wisconsin. They have early vote through Sunday. And also, Arizona has emergency voting, they're calling it this weekend. Yep. Did you know this? I don't. They just sent out a press release. We now have emergency voting. Amazing. Thank you. By the way, thank you, Maricopa. We'd love to have more in-person voting. We outnumber Democrats, so...

The more voting centers, the better. Why don't you just put one on? I'm not kidding. Yeah, I just want to emphasize that again. Michigan and Wisconsin, I checked both of them. They end early voting on Sunday. So there's a little break on Monday. And then, of course, there's Election Day. I love it. And so I want to read some of these other emails here. This is...

uh from north carolina my name is emily uh my huge greek and spanish family are all mega conservatives met a low prop voter and got them out to vote told me uh that if i would not have he asked if his friends had voted i said no i said we will give you this is the reason to vote anyway i'm going to go vote uh emily mega conservative mom and grandma god bless you that's great

Paul says here, Charlie, have a voting day party. Call your friends and say, hey, we're all going to meet this specific poll location at a specific time. That's great. I love that. Guys, we have done well with early voting, and now it's all eyes on this weekend. And then we need to have a triumph on Tuesday. We need to have just an explosion, a surge, the likes of which the nation has ever seen. And I just want to be very clear. We've never been in the driver's seat like this, guys.

We have never been in the driver's seat where I can say confidently, if we hit our turnout numbers, we win. That's really, really, really good. Right, Blake? I mean, the independent numbers are good enough.

It's good enough. You know, Nevada is looking incredibly good. Let's read that number. Just we have the turnout for low propensity voters in Clark County. Yes. Las Vegas. Las Vegas. Nevada. Like I said, Nevada has had great data because we know everyone's party. We have very high early turnout and we know how much they voted in the last few elections. And this is from open source zone. But I assume he's channeling someone like Ralston.

And so for people who have voted in zero of the last three elections, so they didn't vote in 22, 20 or 18, I'd imagine that.

For Republicans who match that, their turnout is 28%. For Democrats, 20%. If it's one or two out of the last three elections, so occasional voters. Republican turnout, 47%. Democrat turnout, 36%. So if we are just beating Democrats in our turnout with these marginal sometimes voters, and then if our always voters turn out,

We win. We flip that state. I don't want to give anyone too much, like, hopium, but Nevada, if we're surging in Nevada, which is considered the bluest of the battlegrounds. A month ago, this was the most likely of the seven for Harris to win. There might be something happening.

There might be. I'm just saying there might be something. You ask me a lot how I feel about it, and I go back and forth. Sometimes I feel better. Sometimes I feel worse. And one of the biggest things that makes me feel good about the race is I just have to do the sanity check, which is in 2020, we felt terrible. The polls were awful.

All these trends were against us and we barely lost. So compare 42,000 ballots in three states. So compare four years later. Does it seem what does the environment seem like? Well, it seems Trump's more popular with all of these groups. He's more popular with Hispanics. He's more popular with blacks. He's more popular with young people. All these groups, you see all these signs that the intensity is there, that the rural vote is stronger, that the early vote is stronger.

Almost every trend that you compare to 2020 is better. So I just have to do a sanity check. Why wouldn't we be able to win then? Because it was so close last time. It's a turnout election, which means you have to work for it. People just don't show up on their own. They have to be bothered, nagged, and just drag them to the polls. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening, and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.