cover of episode Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

2024/11/19
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Key Insights

Why has the war in Ukraine transformed life in Russia?

The war has led to increased repression, economic shifts, and a pivot towards new trade partners like China, altering daily life and political culture.

Why were pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong sentenced to prison?

They were found guilty of subversion under the national security law for organizing an unofficial primary poll, which Beijing views as a threat to order.

What are the potential economic impacts of Trump's proposed tax cuts?

Extending current tax cuts could increase the national debt by over $4 trillion, potentially leading to cuts in government programs and affecting social security funding.

How might eliminating taxes on tips affect the labor market?

It could lead to more tipping in non-traditional sectors and potential wage manipulation by employers, costing the federal budget about $100 billion over ten years.

What is the significance of Russia's updated nuclear doctrine?

The new doctrine allows for a nuclear response to conventional attacks supported by a nuclear power, signaling a potential escalation in response to U.S. missile support for Ukraine.

How has the national security law changed Hong Kong's political landscape?

The law has effectively crushed dissent, leading to the imprisonment of key activists and a subdued civil society, sending a message of strict control from Beijing.

What are the implications of Trump's proposal to eliminate taxes on social security benefits?

It would reduce funding for the social security trust fund, potentially causing it to run out of money two years earlier than projected, affecting future retirees.

Chapters

The war has drastically changed Russia's geopolitics, domestic political culture, and economy, while devastating Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry claims Ukraine used American-made long-range missiles, prompting Putin to update Russia's nuclear doctrine.
  • Russia's defense ministry claims Ukraine used American-made long-range missiles.
  • Putin updates Russia's nuclear doctrine, expanding options for nuclear strikes.
  • Russia has pivoted to new markets and trade partners, often in China.
  • Russian society is claimed to be united behind the war effort, but there is significant repression and opposition.

Shownotes Transcript

It's been a thousand days since russia began its full scale invasion of ukraine.

The war has devastated ukraine and transformed life in russia. How much further could IT, especially as moscow warns that U. S. Missiles could trigger a nuclear response?

Laila foldit, that's special, Martin. And this is up first from N. P. R. news. In hong kong, g dozens of pro democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was the political poll considered a threat? And what message is china sending that .

these vertical and president electron p is laying out big promises for tax cuts?

We will have no tax on tips, no time on overtime, and no tax or in social security.

Sounds appealing, but could, as plan, blow a hole in the federal budget. Stay with us will give you the news. You need to start your day.

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Today Marks a thousand days since russia launched its full scale invasion of its neighbour, ukraine. The war forced the displacement of millions of ukrainians from their homes. It's LED to the death in memory of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

But the war has also brought immense changes to life in russia. And in the past hours, a possibly significant development during us to talk about this is in paris, moscow correspondent, child's mains. He's reported out of russia at the beginning of the conflict.

Any theater tell us more about this child's good morning. Hi there. So before week to the thousand days tells what you can about this breaking news.

Well, russia's defense ministry today said ukraine and Carried out its first attacks on russian territory using american made long range attackers. Now, according to the ministry, ukraine fired six of these missiles on russia's western brands, korean, five of which russia ir defences destroyed in flight. In the sixth the ministry claim to have done, and no injuries were reported that we don't have any word front we key of yet. But if the claim is true, IT appeared to be the redirect result of the bite administration's decision reported by N, P, R. And others that he had lifted restrictions on ukraine's use of long range western weapons to target inside russia.

Has there been any response for the criminal?

Well, not directly, but russian president was, were put in today, find a decree updating his country's nuclear doctrine in, in effect expanding russia's options. A for Carrying out a nuclear strike and what would appear response to u. The U.

S, S. Decision a under the new changes, russian hours serves the right to respond with a nuclear strike to conventional attack by county, supported by a nuclear power. Now I should have these changes had been previously announced, but it's hard not to see the time of its signing as coincidence.

Meanwhile, as all this is happening, we are marking a thousand days since russia first launched its full scale invasion. You've been living there. How do you think the war has changed the country?

It's transform russia, ardly everything from its geopolitics. Rush now embraces military alliances with anti western rogue states like iran in north rea to its domestic political culture in the russia under president, and was never a liberal basin. But the repression of seemingly any dissent since the war started make the earlier put new things comparatively free.

And then there's the economy. Today, russia is the world's most sanctions state, but those are largely western imposed sanctions. So big name western companies like mcDonalds, apple and starbucks, theyve all left, but the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in china. So the result is that most of what you buy, what you say, read and watch, it's all changed. So do we have a .

sense of what russians think about all this, something you've very much describe, just kind of the repressive political atmosphere here there. But is there anyway to know how russians feel about the war, how they feel about all the changes it's brought?

Ah you know the government claims that russian society is united behind the war effort, then the poles would support that um but someone can certainly point to the repressions that you mention you know meanwhile, we have got tens of thousands of russians who fled the country in opposition to the war. Thousands more we've gone to jail for civil disappearance at home, just in conversations I have regularly with people who aren't government critics are politically active per. They just tell me they wish the whole thing would end.

And across president elect, trump is going to be returning to the White house. He has said that he will negotiate with putin to end the war. Do we have a sense of how this is being seen in russia?

You I think it's fair to say there's been a certain confidence in moscow with trump suggestions that may and military support to ukraine, a big part of IT. But there's also just a feeling that russia, which faced repeats setbacks early on in the war and now just out last ukraine, whatever trumps of doing that is in place.

Charles s means in moscow. Charles.

Thank you. Thank you.

s. Government, which is controlled by china, sense forty five pro democracy activists to prison sentences of up to ten years each.

yeah. They were found guilty of subversion of state power this year in a landmark court case that governments, including the U. S, have condemned for criminalizing free speech and political activity. The activists were settled ed for their roles in an unofficial primary poll held in twenty twenty empire.

and only fan covered that primary and the months of anti government protests from hong kong leading up to the arrests of these activists. And she's with us now to tell us more about.

Good morning, Emily. Good morning.

Would you first tell us about this primary poll? Why is IT considered survive?

Well there essentially being sentenced today for us, a version for trying to win in election. They wanted to pick the most popular candidates until held this poor that you just mentioned, and six hundred thousand plus people took part. That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates.

And he was a watershed moment. IT was a moment when this pro democracy coalition really felt like the at a chance of actually in a legislated sleep in hong kong, and they were well organized and the enjoying popular backing. But that's what is being called a version now under beijing's national security law, because this coalition could actually have one, a legislative seat. Ultimately, we know what happened. Half year later, nearly everyone who helped organize that pole, or was a candidate in that pole.

has been arrested. So what does tell about the political .

IT tells us that what was once this lively, often rebound cious civil society in hong kong, g is now entirely leery, because almost all of the most influential activist there are now facing years more behind bars. Among the sentence today was Joshua wong. You may recognize them when he was just a teenager.

He was leading big protest, demanding direct democratic elections back twenty fourteen. And what's now called the umbra movement, well, he's facing multiple charges, but today he just got another four year, eight months sentence. And another person who got sentenced is danny thi.

He's a former professor, really conceptualized the umbrella movement veteran, protest organizer. And he got the longest sentence today for organizing that twenty twenty primary. He is facing a decade, a decade behind bars.

So today's sentencing really shows how were down these activities are as well, because among the forty five sentenced, about three fourth of them plead guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times. Theyve been waiting almost four years behind bars already. yeah.

Has the chinese government responded in in some way to this?

They stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequipped from the start. In beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security law are trouble makers. They are criminals who incited violent protests that diminished ed hong kong as a global financial center. And so they've applauded the security law that snaps ed these forty five people and said, IT is a much needed measure to return hong kong to order.

So given up all you've told us about, just the level of repression there, is there anyway to know about how people in hong er feeling about this? And might there be any more protests?

There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison.

So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance. Winner H. O, who grows the prominence as a journalist and then became an activist.

SHE was one of the people's sentenced today with a seven year prison sentence. Supporters of hers released a statement on facebook and what SHE actually expressed pride at what he achieved. And he said, for these values, IT was worth to dare to act. And that's why that SHE quote, dare to suffer.

That is, appears. Emily and Emily. Thank you.

Thank you.

On the campaign trail, Donald trump promised to put more money back in americans pockets by cutting their taxes.

Here is at an event in rally, nor Caroline of the day before the election.

my plan will assist ly cut taxes for workers and small businesses. And we will have no tax on tips, no tax on overcast, and no tax or in social security value.

So what will a second trump presidency mean for your taxes? IT might mean a lower tax bill, but IT could have drastic consequences for the national budget.

To explain all this is Laura walmsley y, who covers personal finance for N P.

R. morning.

okay. So trump making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know? Well.

the biggest thing is that trumpet is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in twenty seventeen. That was a pretty sweeping law and a did lower most people's tax bills for households that say you make sixty to one hundred thousand dollars a year. Extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about a thousand extra dollars a year ah, but wealthy people saw the most benefit.

For those who are who make more than a million dollars IT means reducing their tax is on average by about seventy thousand dollars. And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package to but all these cuts are expensive. Extending the twenty seventeen law could increase the national debt by more than four trillion dollars over the next ten years, and that really matters less. Taxi of the new coming in means cutting government programs. For example.

let's talk about some of trump's other proposals for, for instance, no taxes on tips. What sort of impact would that have yet?

This is a tax cut that made big headlines, but that only impacts a small part of the labor market. Only about two and a half percent of all jobs and many tipped workers over a third of them earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax. So now there aren't too many details and how exactly all of this would work, but eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some kind of squaring effects.

For example, say, I hire a guide to trim the tree at my house, and that something I usually pay him five hundred dollars to do. Now he might tell me that IT cost three hundred dollars to trim my tree, but that he expects a two hundred dollar tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen IT before.

And employers could also attempt to replace assif y employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage. And for that, the federal minimum wage right now is two dollars and thirteen cents an hour. And like the twenty seventeen tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about one hundred billion dollars over ten years.

Trump also says he would start taxing social security benefits. What sort of effects would be see from that?

Well, for most current retirees, IT wouldn't have any effect. Only about forty percent of people who get social security pay federal income tax on IT. But again, the effects of this change would be huge, and IT would make things worse.

For those of us were still years away from drawing social security. That's because I A big chunk of those taxes on social security goes straight in defunding the social security trust fund. So eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for social security. And that's a program that's already at risk. If no one pays taxes on their social security benefits, that fund is going to run out sooner, perhaps two years earlier, then it's already on track to do that.

Is appears, Laura.

warmly lower. Thank you. come.

And it's up first for tuesday, november ninety.

I'm macho Martin and i'm laa folded for your next listen. You should consider consider this from A P. R.

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