Deep Dive
Why has the war in Ukraine taken an unexpected turn just weeks before Trump takes office?
The war has escalated with missile strikes across the border, the Biden administration allowing Ukraine to use American missiles for deep strikes inside Russia, and Putin revising Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear use, signaling a more dangerous phase of the conflict.
What was the turning point in the war that led to a shift from trench warfare to more aggressive actions?
The turning point was in early August when Ukraine invaded Russia's Curse region, capturing territory and delivering a significant blow to Putin's image, which prompted a Russian counteroffensive and the introduction of North Korean troops on the Russian side.
How did Trump's election victory impact Ukraine's position in the war?
Trump's victory was seen as bad news for Ukraine as he had promised to end the war in a day, which was interpreted as being open to a deal that could sell out Ukraine to Russia. This raised concerns among Ukraine's supporters that American support might wane under a Trump presidency.
What steps did the Biden administration take that signaled a significant shift in policy towards Ukraine?
The Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use American-made ATACMS missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory, a move previously resisted due to fears of escalation but made in response to Russia's introduction of North Korean troops.
How did Putin respond to the Biden administration's decision to allow missile strikes inside Russia?
Putin revised Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear use and explicitly threatened to attack the U.S. if it continued to support Ukraine with weapons. He also launched an experimental ballistic missile, signaling a readiness to escalate the conflict further.
What are the key factors that could influence the potential end of the war in Ukraine?
The key factors include Russia's desire for a deal that ensures Ukraine never joins NATO, Ukraine's need for security guarantees, and the willingness of Western countries to provide those guarantees without Ukraine being part of NATO. The tenacity of Ukraine's will to continue fighting also plays a crucial role.
What does the recent escalation in the war mean for the possibility of a peaceful settlement?
The recent escalation makes a peaceful settlement more challenging as both sides are pushing hard to gain or hold territory before potential negotiations. Putin's aggressive actions and nuclear threats complicate the diplomatic landscape, making it harder for any incoming administration to negotiate a favorable outcome for Ukraine.
- Missiles flying across the border between Russia and Ukraine.
- Biden administration allowing Ukraine to use American missiles to strike inside Russia.
- Introduction of North Korean troops in Russia.
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