19 Days to Go: Early Voting, Dance Parties and Third Parties
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Over the past few days, It's the enemy from within, all the scum that we have to deal with that hate our country. That's a bigger enemy than China and Russia. Donald Trump became more and more erratic on the campaign trail. I am running to be president for everybody. But I am clear-eyed about the history and the disparities that exist for specific communities, and I'm not going to shy away from that.

Kamala Harris pursued a strategy aimed directly at Black men. Tonight, more than 5 million Americans have already voted in early voting, a record-breaking first day of voting. And the first wave of early voting offered a look at the energy level of the electorate. Today, we make sense of all of that with three of my colleagues, political reporters Lisa Lair, Shane Goldmacher, and Rebecca Davis O'Brien.

It's Thursday, October 17th. As you can all see, we have...

Hit the big time. There are daily mugs in front of you. How many have you made? Because if I steal them, are you going to have some left over? I don't think we have enough to steal. Oh, it's not a souvenir much? No. Oh. You know, they give you a discount when you make more of them. I know. What happened to the bulk discount? Yeah, bulk discount. Okay, let's get started. Welcome to our fourth, but by no means final, campaign roundtable.

Lisa Laird. Thanks for having me. Nice to have you here. Rebecca Davis O'Brien. Hi. And Shane Goldmacher. Hello. Okay. As always, I'm going to timestamp this conversation in case something happens after we talk. It is around 1 o'clock on Wednesday afternoon. That's when we're having this conversation in case the world changes profoundly afterwards.

Onto the roundtable. It feels, friends, like we're seeing in this final stretch of this race these very heightened versions of the two candidates' behaviors. One deeply disciplined, the other not at all. So let's start there with the truly erratic and for some alarming behavior of the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, over the past few days,

What happened? What explains it? Why, if at all, does it matter? So I think you're right. This is erratic, but also deeply on brand for Donald Trump. And it's a number of things. But the most striking one happened on Monday night where Donald Trump was at a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania. And that's, you know, a normal kind of campaign thing. People ask questions. He responds. It went a little awry early. Two people passed out. They had to pause it. Also something that

Sadly enough, it happens pretty frequently. People are waiting a long time. It's hot. They're standing up. Yeah. You know, older people, it can be difficult. But then it went really awry. How about we'll do a little music. Let's make this a musical fest. Oh, looky, looky.

Basically, 30 or so minutes in, Donald Trump sort of stopped the entire event and decided that the whole audience would listen to his Spotify list. So put on Pavarotti singing Ave Maria. Nice and loud. Turn it up louder. We want a little action here. He didn't just do like a musical interlude. No, it was extended. This is a man's world.

It was almost 40 minutes of him playing DJ, which he likes to do, but just usually not in public. So what's happening on the stage? He's dancing. He's dancing? Yes. Kirstie Noem, who is supposed to be interviewing him at this event, is also dancing, kind of trying to follow his moves, you know, the fist pumps, the hand waves. But this went on for an extended period of time. It's not generally what a past...

and or future potential president does in the final three weeks of an extraordinarily razor-tight campaign. I just like to imagine what the average voter would think seeing Donald Trump with his kind of hands splayed while Kristi Noem looks confused. And then he just ends it. I mean, it's a very strange—I mean, we're laughing, but it was also part of a week of strange and alarming behavior. Right. Right.

But I do think there's an importance. So while he was dancing, I was with Harris on the other side of the state at a rally event she was having in Erie, Pennsylvania, which is a really important swing county, particularly for Democrats. And she is on the stage.

assailing him as erratic, which was the word we use here, and also as like a really fundamental threat to some foundational American principles. So he was really playing into this choice that she's trying to present to voters in the final weeks of this election. I mean, what's really interesting is that

She's made two cases against Trump, both that he is personally an unserious man, but also that he poses a serious threat to the country. And then across the state, he's, of course, giving evidence, at least of her unserious claims, as he's standing, swaying, dancing at his own rally. Right. And on the serious threat claim...

I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within. He's also feeding into that claim as well. And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by national guard or, if really necessary, by the military. You know, he was out this week in an interview on Sunday talking about how he would potentially deploy the military to target liberals who oppose him, including some members of Congress. Adam Shifty Schiff, who's a total sleazebag, is going to become a senator.

But I call him the enemy from within. That, Lisa, is not just erratic behavior. Arguably, that's potentially a profound abuse of presidential power if he were to win. Yeah, and it's also a ginormous shift in how we think of American government and democracy, right? A foundational tenet of American norms and American government is that you do not use your power to pursue your political enemies. Right, and this is not isolated. We just did an episode a few days ago with our colleague Mike Schmidt –

about how central promises to pursue Trump's enemies not only are to his rhetoric, but were in the first term and maybe in the second term something that he inspires others in the administration to actually carry out. Shane.

This behavior of Trump's over the past week or so, not all of it was public. You were part of a team of reporters who discovered a recent meeting between Trump and his wealthiest donors that turned oddly and very nasty, and I think fits into the larger tapestry of what we're talking about. Yeah, so at the end of September, Trump had a dinner with some of the biggest names and biggest donors in Republican politics, and

And at this dinner, he was not in a good mood. These are people who are big contributors to the party, but who he felt should be doing more to help him. And he told them so. He was complaining about the Jews. He was using negative terms about Kamala Harris. He called her retarded. Wow.

And he was snapping, basically, at these major political contributors. And it's about where this race is on the money front. He is far behind Kamala Harris. She has raised a billion dollars in less than three months as a candidate. I mean, that's just worth saying again, a billion dollars in less than three months. Completely unheard of. It's more than he's raised the entire year.

as of the most recent report, it is the fastest anyone's ever raised that much money when they just start their campaign, and it's double what he had raised in July and August and September. So he's furious at his donors because they're not raising enough money. He wants the big donors to give

even more money. And we have new reports showing some of them are. Elon Musk has given $75 million to support him to a super act. Miriam Adelson has given $100 million. But he wants even more from some of these big contributors, and he's not happy that they have not stepped up, in his view, sufficiently to do so. Okay, so let's put all of this behavior that we're talking about together, because I want to try to understand if there's a strategy here.

What we can all agree on is that this race is going to hinge on persuading just a handful of still persuadable voters. And is anything that we're talking about here, especially some of this very erratic behavior from Trump in public, is that intended to do that? It doesn't appear to be. Or is there something strategic going on here?

I mean, I think you have to differentiate the candidate and the campaign for Donald Trump, which is his campaign has a plan to try to reach those voters. They have...

that they would like Donald Trump to deliver. He does not always deliver the messages that they would like. You just have to divide the campaign and the candidate for him. And you see with Harris, there's not that clear divide between what the campaign wants her to be doing and what she's actually doing. There's a more unified way. And that has come back, I think, I mean, it's important to note that supporters of Donald Trump have said, you know, she's so staged, she's so scripted. This becomes sort of a theme for her. And he is sort of the anti-scripted candidate. But it is also...

a liability. He has lost or his party has underperformed in every single election since 2016. And in part, it is over the stylistic questions on measures of character and temperament. He scores lower than she does. So it's what his supporters love about him. And it's what hurts him with, you know, or has historically hurt him with

some persuadable voters and particularly women, which we definitely see in this election. So let's turn to Kamala Harris and this far more strategic, far more intentional behavior that you've all been alluding to over the past few days. I think that was very clearly demonstrated by the way in which she has been focused this past week on a single constituency, and that is black women.

Polls show, and you guys can better explain this than me, she's vastly underperforming Joe Biden with that group of voters. A very complicated thing to contemplate given that she herself is black and Joe Biden is not. And she went on The Breakfast Club, a show hosted by Charlamagne Tha God. It has a very large black audience, large male black audience. And I want to talk about what that tells us about her strategy.

She has spent much of this week trying to make these inroads with black men. And this is a constituency that's historically been a bastion of the Democratic Party. She will win a majority of black men. The question is, is some portion, a larger portion, either voting for Donald Trump or deciding they don't want to vote at all? So she's been trying to win them over. And it's largely through policy plans. She's been talking about, you know, economic policies.

plans, housing cost plans, all sorts of things like that that she thinks will benefit them. But she's also has an ad out. They've ran out a new ad that's really directly addressing black men and sort of hints at this idea of sexism, that maybe there's some sexism implicit. What does the ad say? Yeah, so she actually has multiple ads right now dealing exactly with this. And it's different people for different states.

So she has one ad running in the Philadelphia market with a black man talking about the need for black men to step up for Kamala Harris, that women have carried the load and it's time for them to step up for her too. And a similar ad running in another state, in one of the other blue wall states. So,

This is a surround sound approach she has. And I think it's even not just her appearances. It's Barack Obama who made his first appearance on the campaign trail last week. And he talked about the need for black men to step up. You have explicitly, very explicitly in ways that I think was surprising, right? This is not. Can you just talk about that for me? Because I was struck by the manner in which he talked about it. It was not just explicit. It was kind of scolding. Yeah. So he went to the Pittsburgh area.

And went to a field office and gave a speech.

And he basically said, you guys got to step up. There is not a reason not to be voting for Kamala Harris and that black men in particular need to do this. And it's interesting coming from Obama, who, of course, is a black man, but who didn't speak to that constituency very often as president in that kind of way. I heard something else in Barack Obama's message, Shane, which was not that black men just needed to step up, but that he suspected sexism.

He said, I worry that Black men in this country are struggling to envision electing a Black woman.

And there were some concerns that maybe that was not the best tone to take. And you saw a little bit of an effort to kind of clean that up, I think, on that interview on The Breakfast Club. Right. Where you had Charlamagne Le God come out and say, When are Liz Cheney and Hillary Clinton going to wave their finger at white women? When are Bill Clinton and Joe Biden going to wave their finger at white women? Why aren't they scolding white men? Why aren't they scolding white women? Well, I think what is happening is that

We are all working on reminding people of what is at stake. And, you know, Harris really didn't bite at that question. Well, even when she, on The Breakfast Club, when a caller who called in and said, you know, what are you going to do economically to help support Black men? My plan includes...

making sure that for first-time homebuyers, they have a $25,000 down payment assistance. And she answered with her list of economic measures that she's laid out in her campaign over the last few weeks. And Charlemagne, they got, actually, it might have been

I forget which of them pointed this out, but those were not racially specific. They're for everyone. And that was sort of her point. It's like in helping all of middle class and helping all working Americans, she is helping black Americans. Everything I just talked about will benefit everybody. Small business owners, whatever their race, their age, their gender. I think she kind of repeatedly on this interview took a specific question or specific perspective

targeted audience and broadened it to say, like, actually what I'm trying to do is help everybody, not just black men. Well, how's that supposed to work if the point of going on a show like that is to reach a particular kind of voter? Why not be specific and pointed? It's also who she is. Like, she is not someone who really likes to talk about identity in those kinds of ways. And I think we're seeing that throughout the campaign. And I think there's reasons—

It's not just personal. I think that is a reflection of who she is. It's also a calculation, obviously, as all things in campaigns are. And so they don't want to do anything, I think, that would alienate anybody. To Lisa's point, for Kamala Harris's whole career, she's been breaking barriers and not talking about it. She's downplayed that her whole career, this has not been how she's pursued her career.

higher office. And look, that's important in this race where she does need black men to turn out in high numbers. She needs to win them overwhelmingly to win this election, but she also needs a whole bunch of other constituencies. So this is all a balancing act for her. Right. This is not just about Kamala Harris's nature not to emphasize that she might be the first person to do something. It's strategically designed not to alienate

specific voters that she might need as much, if not more. If you're Kamala Harris, you need parts of every demographic group to win. I mean, let's just think about Pennsylvania, which is where Trump was swaying and where Harris was in Erie. And that both candidates would do anything to win. Would do absolutely anything to win. She needs to win black voters in Philadelphia by large numbers. She needs to win suburban voters in the

collar counties outside of Philadelphia by large numbers. And that's really appealing to suburban white women. She needs to lose by less in the rural areas throughout the rest of the state. She actually needs to squeeze out extra votes in the fast growing Latino heavy towns in eastern Pennsylvania. And she has to do all of those things to win that state and all the other swing states on the map. Rebecca. Yes. We like to nominate people to take us to the ad break. Oh, what do I do? You just have to say we'll be right back. Okay. We'll be right back.

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Rebecca, right before you absolutely crushed the we'll be right back, we were talking about Pennsylvania. And it's always been very clear that for Kamala Harris in particular, victory relies on winning the upper Midwest, winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. You have been reporting very specifically on an unforeseen obstacle for Harris there, third-party victory.

I think an issue a lot of us forgot about when RFK Jr. dropped out of the race. Tell us what you found. Yes, so...

you know, behind the scenes, I mean, of course, Kennedy was sucking up a lot of oxygen in the third party independent candidate space. And as soon as he left the race in August, people were like, oh, that problem's gone. But that's not true. Jill Stein is on the ballot in dozens of states in the Green Party. Cornel West got on a bunch of ballots. And there's also the Libertarian Party, the Constitution Party. There's a Socialist Party whose candidate is on the ballot in a bunch of states as well. In Wisconsin alone, there are

eight presidential candidates on the ballot, including six third-party or independent candidates. And this is going to be a similar situation in Michigan, where this could potentially be a real issue for Vice President Harris. Just explain that. It's a real issue for Vice President Harris because in Michigan, as we've seen, there is a

sizable number of voters who have said they are not going to support her because of her stance on Israel and Gaza. There's a large Arab-American community, and there's a lot of disaffection with the Democratic Party and their overall approach to this war. Right. We've done an episode about this. There's a group of voters that are calling themselves the uncommitted, and they are uncommitted to either side.

because they're very angry about this war. And the expectation traditionally has been that many of them would support the Democratic candidate. Yes, so these voters may either sit out or they might just choose a third-party candidate as a protest vote, essentially. Right, and now they have many, many options, you're saying, to...

pick a third party. Right, and let me just be clear about something. Our latest polling shows that Jill Stein is polling at about like 1% nationally, but the narrative is Jill Stein's a spoiler for Democrats. It's a very big source of concern. Earlier this week, the DNC actually put out its first ad in these swing states, and

that said a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump, which is about as clear as it gets. I mean, the action speaks louder than anything else, right? It's the Democratic Party that's out there talking about the problems of these third-party candidates. It's the Democratic Party putting out an ad attacking Jill Stein. It's the Democratic Party that didn't want Cornel West to get on the ballots in these states. Their behavior tells you that they think this is a concern because they want voters who might not love Kamala Harris and before that might not love Joe Biden to say it's Donald Trump or

or, and you don't want a third alternative in that debate. You want them to pick. Right, because the suspicion here, especially when it comes to the uncommitted voters in Michigan, is that they don't really want to vote for Donald Trump. He's even further to the right and pro-Israel than Kamala Harris is. So the notion is

If you just give those voters two choices, they're very likely to pick Harris. If you give them eight choices, who knows? Right. The biggest motivator for the Democratic Party over the past eight years has been none other than Donald Trump. They have fueled their wins on this very strong wave of anti-Trump sentiment. And even now, views about Trump are really cemented. Like there's a really, really, really small number of people who are like, I don't know what I think about Trump. So in some ways for Democrats, this is

Okay.

Moving along, this is the very first time on a roundtable that we can really talk about early voting because we now have hard numbers. They're starting to come in because people are actually early voting. We got our first real batch of those numbers on Tuesday night out of Georgia, and the numbers were pretty eye-popping. Let me just summarize them for you. By the end of Tuesday, more than 300,000 voters in Georgia had cast ballots, and

300,000 compared with 136,000 voters the first day of early voting in 2020 and 134,000 first day of early voting in 2022, which basically means more than twice as many people voted early this year. I think that tells us something, but what does it tell us? What does that mean? I mean, my...

How do you add a record-shattering first day early voting? I understand we are in a neck-and-neck race, razor-tight margins, margin error every state, as you said, and we are all desperate for things to grab onto that will tell us where it's going. You're about to tell me that the first day doesn't matter. I mean, there's a lot more days.

Right? We don't know what's going to happen all these other days. We don't necessarily know who those people are who are voting. We don't know how they voted. Well, we know, historic patterns tell us, that early voting and mail-in voting tends to trend significantly Democratic. Yes. However...

Our big marker on mail-in voting is 2020, which, if you may recall... Was anomalous. I believe you were in your closet studio then. We were not in this beautiful place. It's a pretty... I mean, it was a once-in-a-century pandemic. So it's not like you can glean that much data from that experience. So I just think let's not... You're caveating it. Let's not overdo it. But, Shane, to the degree it tells us anything, I have to imagine it tells us something about...

Democratic Party energy in a state like Georgia, because I'm just thinking back four years ago, half as many people voted early in that state. We believe many of them were Democratic voters. Joe Biden won that state over Donald Trump. If that number is twice as big this year, I just wonder if that starts to tell us something about the way we should be thinking about Georgia, a state that for the longest time we thought of as Trump's

I think it tells us about the total amount of energy versus the Democratic or Republican energy, because the Republican Party has been trying to get voters to vote early. They have been scolding voters that actually you can vote early, despite what Donald Trump said in 2020. They've been pushing. And there's a really sort of mechanical reason why this matters, even if it may not tell us anything about the result, which is the most organized campaigns have a list of

of voters that they would like to get to the polls, right? And for those states that say who actually has voted, they can cross them off the list so you don't knock on their door again. You don't send them another mailer. You save money. Your targeting becomes more sophisticated. It's a smaller and smaller universe, and you can go after them more and more. And so in the states where each individual person who's voted is crossed off those lists, it's an advantage for the more organized campaigns to make sure they focus on the lower propensity voters that they think are going to make the difference.

Right. And can't we all just find something to celebrate in the fact that people are voting? It's great. People are voting. We still have a democracy. I mean, Trump isn't just a unifying thing for the Democrat. He has brought more people out to vote since he's come on the scene. We shatter record after record for turnout. People are more engaged in the process of voting than they were before. Just to close out the early Georgia voting story. I'm sure you all know this. One of those early voters was none other than Jimmy Carter.

who just turned 100, voted early. We understand. Long live the former president. I love that.

Okay. To end this conversation, I want you all to kind of give our listeners a little bit of advice at this late stage in the campaign. Nate Cohn isn't here, so we can talk about him behind his back. And it's about polling. At this point in the race, which, as we've said over and over and over again, is a statistical toss-up, how important is it to keep looking at polls that just keep telling us that this race is really, really close?

Do you guys look at the poles really closely at this point? What's a useful way of thinking about the role of poles right now? I've been asked this question a lot in my day-to-day life, as you can imagine, and my advice is disembark from the polar coaster.

Don't do it. Look at the averages. Fine. I mean, if this is satisfying to you, if you enjoy looking at polls, which I suspect everyone at this table does because we're geeks, then fine. Continue. Continue with your happy poll viewing. If it causes you anxiety, if you're not sleeping at night, we're rapidly turning into a mental health podcast. Don't look.

Right.

to get off the polar coaster. Don't pay attention to Nate. That's what you're saying. I try to get my polar coasting in only like lunch hour, like not after dark. It's not good. It's not healthy. Okay, so no pulling after dark, no pulling while driving. Thank you guys. Just exquisite advice. Rebecca, Lisa, Shane, thank you very much. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks for having us. Thank you. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Wednesday, Italy's conservative government passed a law that makes it illegal to seek surrogacy in foreign countries. The law is the government's latest crackdown on LGBT families. Surrogacy is already illegal in Italy.

But the government of Prime Minister Giorgio Maloney has now broadened that ban to punish Italians who seek surrogacy in countries where it's legal, including the United States. The law, which is expected to face strong legal challenge, will make it virtually impossible for gay men in Italy to have children. Today's episode was produced by Olivia Nat, Mary Wilson, Sydney Harper, and Alex Stern.

It was edited by Devin Taylor and Paige Cowan, contains research assistance from Susan Lee, original music by Dan Powell and Marian Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

Oh, this is some crowd. What a group. I know so many of the people. Oh, these people. They're tough as hell. They're from Georgia. They should be tough.

— On Tuesday, I was at the Trump rally in Georgia. — Early mail-in voting in your state is now underway, and early in-person is underway. But I'll tell you what, I'm hearing very good things now. — A state he lost by around 12,000 votes in 2020, and which became the center of his claims that the election was stolen. — So if you have a ballot, return it immediately. If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can. Go to the polls and vote.

Trump went after Republican state officials and voting machines, many of the people and systems that are still in place there. For the next 21 days, get everyone you know to get out and vote. We don't want to take a chance. We can't lose this country. Which raised the question of how he would navigate that in 2024, asking people to participate in the system he says is rigged.

This rally gave us a clear answer. We want a landslide that's too big to rig. Too big to rig. Nothing will sway us, nothing will slow us, and no one will stop us. We will press forward to our magnificent American destiny, and together we will fight, fight, fight. Today, inside the Trump ground game in Georgia.

and why state Republicans are confident that 2024 won't be a repeat of 2020. From The New York Times, I'm Astead Herndon. This is The Run-Up. — All right, y'all. Hey, thank you guys. — I'm giving it to you. — If you wouldn't mind hanging up on the phone calls just real quick. We're going to get started here in just a second. — I spent a lot of time reporting in Georgia back in 2020. And one thing I've noticed is that from four years ago till now,

There's been a big change in how both parties are thinking about their voting coalition. Thank you guys for coming. This is our phone bank, huge bag of phone bank, day of action. We're knocking doors. We're making calls for President Trump. We're three days out from early voting, so we're getting fired up for the president. We're going to get him elected, right guys? Let's get it done.

Back then, Democrats relied on the playbook made famous by Stacey Abrams, who argued that Georgia was an artificially red state. And if Democrats registered more voters, especially Black, Latino, and Asian voters, they'd turn it blue. So here with us today, we have State Representative Jordan Ridley. He's going to say a few words, so I'm going to pass it over to him. We're going to get fired up for President Trump today, so let's get it going. Woo!

Today, polls tell a different story. We appreciate y'all being here today for this day of action. They show Trump doing better than expected among minority voters, which has helped him gain an edge in the more diverse battleground states, like Georgia and Arizona.

While Harris does better in the wider ones, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. We got to get Donald Trump across the finish line. We got 24 more days left. And it's the people like y'all that are going to get us there. Every phone call matters. And that's what led me and my colleague Alisa

to a Trump campaign office in the Atlanta suburbs this past weekend. Y'all are reaching to those low-propensity voters, those swing voters, the ones that we know. We have to talk to them. We have to talk to them two and three times to make sure they're going to vote for Donald Trump and that they actually show up and vote. So everything you're doing is highly important. And thank you all for being here today. Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

State Representative Jordan Ridley, who'd been canvassing that day with the state's young Republicans, spoke to volunteers ahead of the phone banking to remind them of what's at stake. And when we talked to him, it was clear Republicans had their own theories about why Georgia flipped four years ago.

2020, we had COVID. We had a whole list of different things. People didn't want to go out to the polls. People did mail-in voting. So this year, no one's taking it for granted, while four years ago, I think there was some factor we're taking it for granted. Tangible differences, you didn't see these offices here four years ago. They're everywhere in metro Atlanta and across the state now. There are volunteers being out in the community. So that's the tangible differences. According to Ridley, the Trump campaign is now using a multi-pronged strategy.

First, getting the most people out to vote early as possible. Every day the Secretary of State's office puts out who voted. So when you vote and you vote early, we know it so we can go target those people who aren't. Because once we get people to the polls to vote, then we know we got them locked in and we can focus our efforts on those who haven't voted.

One of the things I wanted to ask also is that I remember being here in 2020 and part of the story of both those Senate races and Georgia's flip was in the suburbs kind of shifting. And some of those were, you know, places like this who seem to be a little annoyed with Trump or at least less interested than they were in 2016.

Have you been able to win those people back, you think? I think so. I think people who may not have been happy with Trump in 2020, they voted for the new option. They've seen the new option isn't that great. They see all the problems, all the failures of the Biden-Harris administration. So if they were even annoyed with Donald Trump, they know his policies work and they're going to come back and vote for us in 2024. The second prong is targeting people known as low-propensity voters.

People who don't always vote. People who are low propensity, they may have that hiccup or they may be people who want to be involved. They support Trump's America First policies, but they're just like, I'm busy, I can't do it. So when Trump's trying to reach out to them, like, hey, you like my policies, I need your vote this time. We saw what happened in 2020, anomaly, whatever you want to call it. We got to make sure we don't do that again. So we need you to come show up because if you like my policies, the way we continue for four more years is you show up and vote.

A big piece of how the Trump campaign is targeting these low-propensity voters is something called Trump Force 47. It's an organizing program where people can sign up to phone bank or door knock in their communities with a special focus on people who don't vote consistently.

Jay Wilson and Lori Wood are Trump Force 47 captains. I was curious to hear about their experience.

and what it's like trying to convert people to Trump's side. Some undecided voters, when I start talking with them and I bring up the economy and I bring up Trump's policies versus Biden's policies,

The last four years have been very difficult for a lot of people. They can't afford groceries. They can't afford life anymore. And how I position it with the voters, and it's been very effective as I tell them, I said, if you want eight years of this, that's what you're looking at with Kamala Harris taking the reins. She would be in office for eight years. We know Donald Trump's policies work. You might not like his personality, but his policies absolutely worked well.

and we'll have him for four years. He's not a dictator, that's the media throwing that out there. And he would be there for four years and then you get all new leadership in four years. It's like a fresh start for everybody. And when I did that, I've talked to many voters. I had a woman yesterday, as a matter of fact,

She was on the fence. And at the end of our conversation, she said, I'm voting for Trump. And she took two Trump signs from me and bumper stickers. And when we left yesterday, we were like hugging it out. One of the things that the state rep mentioned as he was talking, I was the low propensity voters, people who don't come out.

Big part of it. And so I was going to ask, as you all are calling and if you're on doors, how much of your convincing effort is about getting people to vote at all versus the two? I spent a couple of hours on a corner of the street in my neighborhood. I put out a sign that says register here. You know, that's all I did. I put up some balloons and I put up a Trump sign and I sat there with a stack of three part paper.

whatever it is, application for voter registration. And people would just come up and say, I had a lady come up to me and say her dad was 90, her mom was 84, she was their caretaker, and they had never voted before. And she wanted to find out how to get them involved in being able to vote. So we're seeing things, I'm seeing things that...

are people that don't normally get active or getting more active. It's been a big part, I think, of the Trump campaign here recently and certainly ours on the ground that we've got to find these people that maybe not necessarily would have taken the time in the past, but convinced of it early.

because it can rain on election day. We got to bank the vote, and I think that's been a big play on the campaign. Is it hard or difficult convincing people to vote early, considering that four years ago, I know a lot of people were nervous about some of those things. No, they weren't nervous about it, but it's changing. They're not anymore. You're saying you don't run against any opposition when you vote early, or for people who may have been skeptical of that four years ago? Generally, it's improved, I think. And we think, here's what I think.

I don't know if you agree. We have to outvote

The margin that normally they get away with in inner city and other precincts, they get away with a certain amount of this kind of stuff. And it happens behind closed doors. And it's all Democrats that run the administration from up till down. So people like us, we feel like we got to get more than the margin of cheating. I'm really confident that we're going to be able to do that. I mean, the groundswell is there. I mean, we're hopeful, I think.

When you think about the pitch that you make to people, whether it's on the doors or calls, are you mostly saying what Democrats are doing right now is bad? Or you're saying here's what Trump is going to do and that's good? Which pitch is more effective? I try to focus on what he can do that's good. That's what I would try to focus on. But there's so many other rabbit holes to go down. It's hard. But what you do is you show up and say, who do I want to put first? I want to put American citizens first.

first, legal American citizens first, whoever's in the productive class. I don't care what race, color, creed. I don't care about any of that. Are you part of the productive class? Do you put in more than you get out? That is what he cares about. So, so anyway, I tried to focus on what he would do. We got to close the border. We got to focus on Americans. You know, that, that, that's really where I would go, but there's so many other rabbit holes that go down. Somebody

use this analogy on me and I thought it was a good one when you're picking a surgeon and I personally had this experience I had to have some sinus surgery years ago and I had to pick a surgeon that

that was confident because they were going to drill a hole in my head. Okay. And the guy that is the most confident in Atlanta, he's so cocky. You don't call him for an appointment. Your doctor has to call him for an appointment. And I didn't want to go to him. So I went to somebody else first and guess what? It didn't work. And then I had to go back to him and I went back to him and he fixed the problem. And I should have known I should have

Just swallowed my words and just gone with the cocky guy with the horrible bedside manner, but he's a gifted surgeon. That's what I look at President Trump. He's the cocky guy, but he gets the... But the better option. Better results. It's better results. Can we get to like a mini little role play? Like, let's say I'm some voter or some person you're talking to on the doors. And I agree with you all mostly that Trump's policies were better than...

that I don't really like how things are going right now. I'm unsure about Harris or whatever. But say, like, the thing that makes me nervous is January 6th. Or the things that comes in my head when I think about it are what happened at the end of the last one. I didn't like how 2020 ended. What would you say to me? I think it's Congress's duty to secure the Capitol. They should have had people there. I, you know, I think January 6th, I think...

There's a lot more questions than there are answers. If you did break property, if you did hurt somebody, you absolutely deserve to be in prison. I support that 100%. And all my door knocking, I can honestly say, I think I've only had one person bring up January 6th. Only one person. The biggest rejections I see are from super nice people

I've met several nice ladies, nice women. You can hear they're family women, but they're scared and they're worried about, you know, the kind of the abortion question. That's what that comes up a lot more. That's what I hear. And the only thing I say is that abortion is not going away. Trump is not a pro-abortion. He doesn't have that ideology, anti-abortion, no abortion ideology. He doesn't have that. He doesn't have a pro-abortion ideology. He doesn't.

He didn't care. He wanted to get it away from what everybody agreed that the Roe v. Wade decisions, 1973, the year I was born, was bad law.

Those were men in robes making that decision for women. We have states that can make those decisions. But if I was a voter who was saying, you know, I'm worried about abortion access and Trump installed the judges that put that into question, your response would be what?

I would say it's in the States. And now you've got a local place. You can go to your state house. You can get fired up and signs and protests and demonstrate and write letters to the editor right here in your community. And you can have a greater impact on your access to abortion or if you're in opposition to abortion right now. There's never been more.

possibility for you to affect change in the world that matters to you? I also believe IVF should be covered by insurance. I was fortunate back in 1999, almost 25 years ago, that my IVF procedure was covered through insurance. It was a blessing beyond belief. You are upset at the Republicans who don't necessarily agree with that because it's been an open question about IVF and abortion. Some loud Republicans that are...

Of course, Trump has been in a different place. We know Trump has been in a different place. There are some people that are like, oh, abortion. But that's not... I don't think everybody that's involved in... Trump has changed the dynamic on everything. It's no longer the evangelical Christian Republican Party. It's no longer the country club Republican Party of the rich businessman. It's no longer that. This is now the party of the working person and the reasonable America-first people.

Not everyone at the phone bank was as experienced as Jay and Lori. Take Julia and Sean Banks. They're a married couple who are both Black and caught my attention in the room. So after talking to two experienced phone bankers, I wanted to talk to them, rookie campaign volunteers.

who are both part of a closely watched demographic this election. As polling shows, Harris' support with Black voters in swing states, slipping below expectations.

I've always been more conservative as black people. I think black people in general are more conservative, but we get pushed into this Democrat plantation from, I guess, the 60s or whatever, and then it just continued generation after generation. Did you grow up as a Democrat? Yes. My family, you know, they're probably still Democrat, unfortunately, but, you know. When was the first time you remember voting for a Republican?

I voted for George Bush when I first could vote and then I unfortunately I repented every day for it. I voted for Obama twice. And then you voted for Trump in 2016? Yes. What was it happened between 2012 and 2016 that made you think I'm going to back to Republican?

So Obama, to me, first of all, I feel like he betrayed us. Some of the values that I have, he was like, I don't stand for this, I don't stand for that. And then once he got in office, he did everything for the gay community. He did nothing for black people. He was against gay marriage, and then he was for... Yeah, and he did that to get the Christian vote, the black Christian vote, and then he just like

Oh, this is who I am. And he took off his suit. His devil horns came out, you know. Interesting. Does your, did you vote for Obama? I did vote for Obama the first time. I actually voted third party the second time. And I realized both sides is tainted, you know, left wing, right wing, same turkey. And I always agreed with that. But to me, Trump was sort of a wild card. A wild card is good.

The wild card is good. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, some people can say wild card. I'm just clarifying. You're using wild card as a hypothesis. Yeah. A lot of people would say that a bull in a china shop is bad, too, right? Right. But I believe he's a bull in a china shop. And sometimes you've got to break eggs to make an omelet. That's what makes me like him. Why do you think such an overwhelming amount of black people vote for Democrats? Well, I hate to say it like this, but...

They've given us things, whether you want to say it's welfare, but they've given us certain things. They've looked at us as defranchised, and I think they're replacing us with the illegals. So now we got, I want to say what I want to say, but now we got some new people to give stuff to.

And I think they thrive and they give stuff to people they think they need it. You know, it's like a lost puppy or whatever. So I think that's why we normally vote that side, because we look at the Republicans as being the elite.

the rich white men who don't care about nobody else but theyself, which they still paint Donald Trump as. I don't see it that way. - I would say, 2004, I imagine black Republican was a more lonely position. Do you talk to more people about it now? Do you think things are changing? Do you think the relationship between black folks and Democrats or Republicans are changing?

I think Trump is changing that. Anytime I see a lot of these podcasters go out in the street and ask people, a lot of times they go to the black neighborhoods, to barbershops. And what you're hearing from a lot of young black men like my age and middle age, what they're saying is things were better economically under Trump. And I think it's not just black men, it's white men too, white young boys too. And I think why they're gravitating towards Trump and not gravitating towards Harris and Walsh is the fact that

Deep down inside, young men want to have a wife and take care of their family. You know, we have this whole thing with Andrew Tate or Jordan Peterson teaching men to be men again, but

The Democratic Party seems like they want to call that, you know, they want to say that's toxic. What's toxic about a man being a man and taking care of his family? And I think the Republican Party shows that strength. I mean, it's one thing to vote for him. It's another thing to be at a phone bank and kind of put yourself in a more active position. Why did you decide this time I want to be someone who's organizing votes? I want to be an ambassador for Trump rather than just organizing.

I'm voting for him in the booth. So to me, it's Kamala Harris is so, so bad. And she's fake. I don't think she's qualified to run the country. It's not because she's a woman. I don't care about. I'm going to try to put a filter on it. I don't care if she's black or not. Her policies are bad.

And do I want to see a woman in the, I don't care if a woman is president or not. I want someone qualified. She's not qualified. And I will add this to it. Obama actually, we saw him campaign. We saw him earn the spot that he got. I don't see that with Harris. I see more of it's been given. She ran for president. She got knocked out and then all of a sudden get picked up only because of what she looked like.

in her gender. That makes me feel like she didn't earn it, just like she didn't earn the presidential candidate. The guy dropped out, you're the next one up. You all are doing these kind of efforts. I'm curious, like, what comes up as you talk to people about trying to convince them to vote for Trump? What are some of your interactions like and how have you, what strategies have you used? Do you have some go-to things that you say to say, this is why I think you should vote for Trump?

Well, for me, one of the things that come up is he's a racist. So I'm able to pull up the thing that they use to say he's a racist and show the whole clip. Like he didn't. Oh, there is people, good people on both sides. He specifically said, I am not talking about the white supremacists or these other people. He said, I'm only talking about there were people that protested because they wanted to keep the statue. Everybody that was there was not bad.

So when you hear people say, I don't know, Donald Trump's racist or I won't vote for him because that you like you go back and say, hey, what do you think about Charlottesville actually wasn't what he fully said. Do you have a go to strategy that you said? I can't convince my own family, but they think he's racist. My mother said and my mother voted for Bush.

because of his policies. But for some reason, she said she hates Donald Trump's voice. She doesn't like it. And me and her, we stay away from that conversation. I appreciate it. This is really helpful. I think we're just going to sit and listen to some people make some calls now. Thank you all for helping. So Julia and Sean may not represent the low propensity voters the Trump campaign needs the most.

But their story — and transition from Obama voters to Trump volunteers — speaks to some important themes that will shape this election, as do their efforts to convince their family members and friends. Four years ago, Georgia's demographic shifts seemed to spell doom for Republicans. Now, the party is working to bring these voters into the fold — efforts that seem to be reflected in the polls.

And it's part of the reason Republicans are confident that 2020 will go down as an outlier, as long as their party remains united and energized. After the break, the first day of early voting in Georgia, and the first clues on whether they actually are.

Okay, so what's our plan for today? Well, currently we're at the Red Eye Mule Diner in Marietta, Georgia. And today is Tuesday, October...

And it's the first day of early voting in Georgia. So after spending the weekend hearing the strategy from the Trump campaign on how they were trying to reach people who don't traditionally vote, or maybe people who are more interested in Trump more this time than they were last time, we wanted to see if we can find a voter who really represents someone

who has heard that message and responded by voting early. The Trump campaign mentioned over the weekend the importance of early voting because they're trying to have these votes banked so they can increasingly target voters as they get closer into Election Day. And it's something that the party's really shifted on. So we're going to go around to this all-important county in the state and see what the early voting sites look like. And then we'll finish the day at Trump's event, which is also in Cobb County.

We started at a rec center in Cobb County, an area of metro Atlanta, just outside the city, which went for Biden in 2020 by a margin of 56% to 42%.

And for many, especially Democrats, it was about convenience. One thing I do is I check the map to see what the wait times look like. And it's five minutes. Yeah, he said, so it's time to act right now. I'm retired. I have all the time in the world off. So I decided, let's get it done. I think it's going to be very contentious. I think the lines are going to be pretty intense.

And I had the opportunity to do it. I'm on break right now, fall break. So I wanted to avoid the chaos, the crowds. The contention. Yeah, well that and people just get crazy, especially in Cobb. The main issue was whatever we needed to do to stop Donald Trump. But for many of the Trump fans we spoke with...

Good, how are you all? We're from the New York Times. We're talking to people about early voting and what decided to make folks come out on the first day of early voting. You all have a couple minutes to chat with us before you head inside? Sure, but now you can't campaign, you know, we're within the spot where you can't campaign. We're not campaigning or anything, we're just talking to people about their decisions and what may, yep, and about early voting generally. Well...

The reason I came for early voting is because of 2020. 2020 was a big factor, too. What do you mean? The fraudulent ballots were counted. So were you someone who didn't vote early last time? Did you vote on Election Day last time in 2020? I'm saying, how did it make you think, OK, this time I want to go early? Because for one thing, I don't trust the Dominion machines. It is fraud.

It's fraud. So when you vote early, even though it's going on the machine, they're supposed to count the number of ballots and the number of people who voted and make sure that's equal.

So it'd be a lot easier for them if people come and vote every day rather than just the last day. So that's another reason. One question I have, though, is how do let's say let's say your candidate is not successful. Is there a way that you would still trust that it was fair if your candidate loses? I'm not sure, because if they're going to use the same machines that were crooked last time, why won't the same machines be crooked this time?

Thank you so much. You're very welcome. Hi, how are you all? My name is Estep. This is Alisa. We're from the New York Times. We're talking to people about early voting, what's the top issues that matter to them in this election. If y'all maybe have five minutes, we would love to chat with you all. Georgians have been so nice to us today. Sure. Why did you decide to come on the first day of early voting? I just wanted to make sure I got my vote in. Have you typically voted early?

In the past, I have a couple of times where I'll go on voting day. But this time you wanted to make sure? I just wanted to make sure I got it in. Are you a Democrat or Republican? Have you identified with any party? I'm independent, but I'm voting for Trump. How did you come to that decision? Is there a top issue that mattered for you that really closed the deal for you? Economy, immigration.

I voted for Trump since the first time he came down the escalator. So it's been 16, 20 and this time. Yeah. Cool. One thing I was going to ask is, I remember four years ago being in Georgia and there was concern among Republicans about trust in the electoral process. I'm wondering, how do you feel now? And do you think that issue is still kind of top of mind for people?

I am worried about it. That's actually one of the reasons I wanted to come and vote early. The last time I voted, I felt there were some strange things that happened when I was voting in Cobb County. Kind of felt like my vote really might not have been counted. And you were voting early four years ago or that was on election day? It was still early. I think more Republicans are thinking like that this time.

I do. And I think a lot of Republicans feel that the last election was stolen. Relating that to this one, how is this going to be trusted? I guess kind of the way I want to ask it is, is the only result that's going to be trusted a Trump victory? Yeah. I'm hoping that he has a land side victory so there's no questions about it. But you feel like if we come to, you know,

November, if we come to election night and it's, you know, a slight Harris victory like last time, you think those same things will pop up? I won't believe it. I just see all of the rallies Trump has and everyone that I talk to that's voting for Trump, even people who in the past were Democrats. My family's always been Democrat. My mother, strongly Democrat, is voting for Trump. So there's a lot more people getting out and voting now, I think, for Trump. Which leads you to feel like the result you'll trust is a Trump victory. Yeah.

Cool. You got any more questions? We got it. Thank you. Thank you so much. We appreciate your time. Hey, how are you? My name is Ested. This is Alisa from the New York Times. We're talking to people about early voting and what their top issue is in the election. We were hoping to just talk with you maybe for five minutes. Georgians have been so nice to us today. Can you tell us why you decided to come on the first day of early voting?

Well, the Republican Party of Georgia wants people to go ahead and if you vote, then your vote is then, it is counted and it is banked. And the Republican Party then does not have to continue to reach out for people who have not voted yet and spend money and time and effort contacting them. So that's the theory behind it. And

And so there's also the idea that they wanted to have a lot of people vote on the first day just to show the enthusiasm for Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance. Did you vote early four years ago? Yeah, I did. You did. So you've typically used the early voting option. Yeah, but not like on the first day. I just write on the first day kind of because of that specific request from the Republican Party. Right. Sure.

the idea of voter integrity in Georgia is paramount and people have got to really understand that we are having free and fair elections because 2020 was an absolute disaster and a chaos. What do you think the effect is? I mean, because you're laying out what I think is the kind of the MAGA argument of how they seem the last four years. Do you think that kind of MAGA base

will have trust in the results of this time around? It depends on how transparent it is. So the question is, you know, there are a lot of people looking this time.

It won't be a question of trusted results. It'll be a question of we've got to see the evidence and we've got to be able to count it. And just last, which we say we I'm saying, are you working with a specific organization? Have you like or you're just someone who has been. I'm somebody that goes down to the state election board meetings, that stands up and says something about it. I'm a guy that shows up on the first day of voting as asked to be able to do this. I'm somebody that I'm.

I'm an eighth generation Georgian. And the idea that this state has got the worst, the most, the least transparent voting process in the country is beyond preposterous. But the whole idea, as Trump has said, and other people in the great state of Georgia said, we've got to make...

we've got to make the turnout too big to rig. It's got to be too big to rig. — And so that's the focus right now? — The focus is right now is to, yeah, to have the Republican base turnout big. — Thank you so much. We really appreciate your time. — You're welcome. — All in all, the message from Republicans was coming through loud and clear. But we still had one more stop before our day was over.

What are we walking by now? It is late Tuesday afternoon and we are outside the Trump event in Cobb County, Georgia. He's doing an event to encourage people to early vote, which coincides with the first day of early voting here in Georgia. And we're here, though, to continue our search for

Someone who really matches up with what the Trump campaign was saying as their target, like their most interested voter for November, which is someone who either obviously flipped from voting from Biden to Trump from 2020 and 2024, or someone who wasn't voting at all, one of those low propensity voters who they've encouraged to get involved.

So we're going to talk to some people, try to see if there's anyone here who fits in that category and maybe didn't vote last time but is voting this time. The Line for Trump's event snaked around the building with no end in sight. And it had all the usual signs of a big MAGA gathering. A lot of red, white, and blue. A lot of t-shirts railing against Democrats. Hi, how are you? And a ton of red hats. Which is when we met Caleb, a 27-year-old who works in auto sales.

And was standing in the line alone. Can you just tell me a little bit why you came? So I came because I was bored, honestly. I saw an ad on Instagram, and I do support Trump. I had nothing else better to do, so I was like, come on out. And I'm interested in politics. I would love to be a politician one day.

But I've never been to a rally, so... Can you tell me how old you are? 27. 27. Are you someone who just has been a Republican and that's why you're interested? Or is your interest more in Trump than the Republican Party at large? So I would say it's more in Trump than the Republican Party at that point. So I don't identify with any party. I just like some of the things he says.

I'm only 27, so I think Trump first got elected in 2016 at that point, so I was a freshman in college at that point. I wasn't, had no parent support anymore, so I was living on my own. They still paid for school, but I had to buy my own gas, things like that. I've noticed that things have been increased since then. I get less money in my paycheck than before, and it doesn't go as far, which...

I'm not saying Trump's going to fix everything at that point by any means, but I think he'll be better off than Kamala Harris would be in office. Did you vote previously in 2020 or in 2016? So believe it or not, the only time I voted have been in my local government. I've never voted in a presidential election. Why is that? So the biggest change comes from local government, in my opinion. Like a lot of people push change, push change, push change, but they don't do anything local at that point. I mean, I think change is from ground up.

Not from top to the bottom? It's not like it's one or the other. You could vote in both of them, right? Like, I'm curious, why didn't you at 19 when you were hearing, yeah, or in 2020, the last two times Trump was running, it doesn't seem like you took...

So I'm saying, what was it that made you not participate? Honestly, I thought Trump was going to win by a landslide in 2020. Yeah, last time. I am going to vote this year at that point, but I thought he had for sure going to win last time. So you partly didn't vote because you just thought he had it in the bag? Basically, I just thought he was going to win. So what did you think about it when it happened?

I was surprised at that point. I wasn't as surprised as some people were, but I was genuinely surprised. I mean, I don't think there was like any cheating or anything done like that, but you never know. I mean, I wouldn't put it past anybody, but I'd say I was just, you ever like been watching the news and be like, oh crap, that happened? And then the next day you just kind of forgot about it?

- That's how you felt about what? About the election? - Kinda sorta, yeah. I mean like, oh crap, he lost. And then I just went on with my day. 'Cause I can't do anything to change it. - Yeah. One thing that, you know, there's a lot of talk about kind of people who irregularly vote. Honestly, people like you. And you know, what motivates them to get involved versus what doesn't. So for you, what's made you say, I'm for sure gonna vote this time when you haven't voted the last two times?

So a couple of different things. The number one reason, honestly, is because of my mom. She's African-American and a lot of black people have died for black people without the right to vote. She got mad at me last time for not voting. So, which I mean, I guess a lot of Trump is going to win. But this year I will vote to make my mom happy. And also I've learned that, I mean, one vote does make a difference. I used to believe that it didn't make a difference. But at the end of the day, I think it somewhat does now.

Is it easier to believe that your vote matters because Georgia is a swing state and is close and important in the presidential election? So I am actually a registered voter in South Carolina. Oh, okay. I'm just in Georgia for work at the moment. Correct. That's interesting. Okay, so would you describe, you mentioned kind of prices, would you describe your top issue as like inflation and the economy? Is that what's really driving some of your support for Trump or are there other issues that also matter? I mean, so there's a

couple other issues as well. I think Trump is an outsider and they don't like that as well. I'm a big conspiracy theorist depending on what it is, but I like conspiracy theories. And I think that him being an outsider kind of scares some people in politics who've been lifelong politicians. And especially this past, I'd say year and a half going on. I mean, I don't think Joe Biden's controlling the country anymore. So I'm kind of curious who is at this point. And

if whoever is controlling the government or country at this time would not have an influence over Trump. So you're saying all of that kind of leads you, if I hear you correctly, to be more interested in someone who you think is an outsider.

Correct, at that point. Not necessarily the Republican Party, just in general. I mean, because I'm a vote Democratic. The next four years, you never know if I just like the person running. You're saying you don't consider yourself, you're saying it could be very, you could see yourself in four years voting for a Democrat for president if you like the individual person. Correct. I am not loyal to any party. Thank you so much. We really appreciate your time. That was awesome. So Caleb isn't technically a Georgia voter.

But he does represent the type of person who both campaigns will spend a lot of time targeting in the race's final weeks. Someone who's pretty sure they're going to vote, and pretty sure who they're going to vote for, but may leave it to Election Day itself. But one thing I learned from my time in Georgia is that early voting efforts help with that cause. A record 300,000 people cast ballots on the first day of early voting, according to state officials.

Which means the campaigns can focus more on the Calebs of the world, people who could be the deciding factor in a razor-close race. This is essentially what Democrats did in 2020, and what Republicans refused to do at the time, led by Trump, who often railed against early voting and encouraged his base to only vote on election day. But all that has changed now that November 2024 is around the corner.

Republicans, including Trump, are all in on early voting. And they found a message that resonates with their base. Don't vote early because you trust the system. Vote early because you don't. That's The Run-Up for Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Now, The Rundown.

Only three weeks to go to the election. Will you commit now to respecting and encouraging a peaceful transfer of power? Well, you had a peaceful transfer of power. On Tuesday, former President Trump did an interview with the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News. You had a peaceful transfer of power compared with Venezuela, but it was by far the most, the worst transfer of power for a long time. Thank you. I appreciate that because...

This is what they like to do. This is what they like to do. And you know, it's very interesting. The question to President Trump is, would you respect the decision? When I found out about this interview, I did a little check. He's a man that has not been a big Trump fan over the years. So I had a choice. Do I do this interview or not? I'm glad I did it. Trump would not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. If you think an election is crooked,

And I do, 100 percent. If you think the day it comes when you can't protest, you take a look at the Democrats. They protested 2016. They're still protesting it. Nobody talks about them. And VP Kamala Harris, who will be in Georgia this weekend.

did an interview with radio host Charlemagne Tha God. It's two very different visions for our nation. One mind that is about taking us forward and progress and investing in the American people, investing in their ambitions, dealing with their challenges. And the other, Donald Trump, is about taking us backward. The other is about fascism. Why can't we just say it? Yes, we can say that. Where she went further than she has before in casting Trump as an authoritarian leader.

We are 19 days from the election. See you next week. The Run-Up is reported by me, Ested Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Landman, and Alicia Baitube. It was mixed by Afim Shapiro and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halfinger, Maddie Maciello, Mahima Chablani, Nick Pittman, and Jeffrey Miranda. Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at therunupatnytimes.com. Or better yet, record your question using the Voice Memo app on your phone, and then send us the file. That email again is therunupatnytimes.com.

And finally, if you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y'all.

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