Will Trump & Musk Send the US Government into Shutdown?
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Today, US lawmakers rush to avoid a government shutdown, Western diplomats meet Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, and the UK names its next ambassador to the US. From TLDR News, this is your daily briefing for Friday 20th December 2024.

US politics is in a frenzy today as Congress has to find a way of keeping the government open after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted down the latest funding bill, despite it being supported by President-elect Donald Trump, exposing significant rifts within the Republican Party.

An earlier bipartisan funding bill negotiated by Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, and which had the support of congressional Democrats, was torpedoed after Trump and his allies, especially Elon Musk, came out strongly against the bill, convincing enough Republicans to vote against it.

That bipartisan bill, which would have funded government agencies at current levels and provided $100 billion for disaster relief, $10 billion for farm aid, plus a range of other unrelated provisions, was rejected on Thursday, with 174 votes for compared to 235 votes against.

A slimmed-down Plan B that was more palatable to Trump and co was cobbled together by Speaker Johnson. It included a three-month government funding extension, the same disaster relief and farm aid, and, as Trump had demanded, a two-year suspension of the debt limit.

However, Trump's debt limit demand rankled many Republican lawmakers, 38 of whom joined with Democrats to defeat the Plan B bill on Thursday, leaving the divided Republican caucus scrambling for a Plan C, with the government shutdown deadline, the end of Friday 20th December, fast approaching.

While it remains to be seen if, how and when a deal is reached, the dramatic and rapid series of events highlight some political dynamics that may dominate Trump's incoming presidency. First, while Trump has certainly reshaped the Republican Party in his image, he by no means has total control of congressional Republicans, who he'll have to work with to pursue much of his agenda. And this is only made more difficult by the Republicans' incredibly narrow House majority.

And second, if there was any doubt as to the huge political influence of billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk, this should put it to bed, as Musk mobilised a considerable number of Republican lawmakers against the original bipartisan bill. There's more on the way, but remember to subscribe and ring the bell for more Daily Briefing next year. Plus, if you want to support the channel like Dan Gardner, then consider joining the TLDR Daily Membership Programme for just £1.99.

US President Joe Biden has sent diplomats to Syria to meet the country's de facto leader, Islamist rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, now also known by his real name Ahmed al-Sharar. Barbara Leaf, the US State Department's senior Middle East official, will lead a delegation into a formal face-to-face meeting with al-Jilani on Friday, in the first official in-person contact between the US and the HTS rebel group that led the offensive that toppled President Bashar al-Assad two weeks ago.

It comes as al-Jalani is urging Western governments to lift sanctions on Syria and remove the terrorist designation on HTS and its leaders that has been in place since 2018. The US has already said it's prepared to consider lifting sanctions on Syria if HTS proves its commitment to, quote, inclusive rule and maintaining stability. The US diplomatic visit to Syria's capital, Damascus, follows similar visits by the UK, France and Germany this week.

The EU is planning to reopen its legation, a diplomatic office similar to an embassy but of a lower rank in Damascus, while Turkey and Qatar are also reopening embassies that they shut after the Syrian civil war. Another story from Trump now, who on Friday issued a stark warning on truth social to the European Union, stating that the bloc could face tariffs unless it significantly reduces its trade deficit with the United States by buying more American oil and gas.

Trump's threat follows overtures already made by Brussels offering to buy more US liquefied natural gas, which has been a lifeline for the bloc after Russia squeezed supplies of fossil fuels following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in November that the EU would consider buying more gas from the US. Trump, who's set to take office on January 20th,

has vowed to impose tariffs on most imports, suggesting that Europe could face heavy penalties for its long-standing trade surplus with the US. He's already pledged tariffs on major trading partners including Canada, Mexico and China. In the wake of Trump's comments, European stocks suffered significant losses, with the pan-European Stocks 600 Index dipping 0.8%.

indicating the worst weekly performance in three months. Major European indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 both fell around 1%. Investor sentiment was further shaken by concerns over US inflation data, which could impact future interest rates. Syria's largest oil refinery, the Baniyas facility, has ceased operations following a critical loss of crude oil supplies from Iran, which previously provided about 90% of the nation's input.

General Manager Ibrahim Moussalam confirmed that the refinery, capable of processing up to 100,000 barrels daily, produced its last batch of petrol last Friday. Currently, maintenance work is ongoing in anticipation of future crude oil availability. Under Syria's new government, formed after the recent ousting of Iran-backed President Bashar al-Assad, hopes are pinned on the potential lifting of sanctions to secure oil imports from non-Iranian sources.

Members of the interim leadership, composed largely of officials from the Salvation Government, have expressed optimism about acquiring necessary parts for refining operations. However, significant challenges remain. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken identified fuel shortages as a critical issue that must be addressed to restore essential services and revive the war-torn economy.

The country is also grappling with acute electricity shortages, with the interim government struggling to stabilise basic services and manage the winter fuel demands. Syria has only one other refinery in Homs, which operates at reduced capacity. The interim government is reportedly exploring options for importing both crude oil and its derivatives to meet the needs of a populace facing dire energy constraints.

Moving to the UK now, where former New Labour spin doctor Peter Mandelson has been appointed as the UK's next ambassador to the US. He's best known for his work for Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, with his ability to spin news stories earning him the title the Prince of Darkness. He'll take the role of US ambassador in early 2025 as Trump enters the White House.

Now, usually UK ambassadors are career diplomats or civil servants. The selection of Mandelson is, therefore, something of a strange choice. The Starmer government has stressed that his selection shows just how important we see our relationship with the Trump administration, with them adding that we're sending someone close to the Prime Minister with unrivaled political and policy experience, particularly on the crucial issue of trade.

Now, just a heads up to all of our viewers that this is the last episode of the Daily Briefing of 2024. We just want to say a huge thank you to everyone who's watched, commented, liked or subscribed this year. Your support has been key to growing the channel and we can't wait to continue in 2025. Have an amazing Christmas and New Year and we'll see you again in January.

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