Putin's foresight: how 2015 Syria plan is aiding his Ukraine war
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis with Alex Dibble. This week's rebellion in Syria saw a vicious response, not just from President Assad, but also from Russia, whose bombing, according to the civil defence force run by the Syrian opposition...

has left 56 people dead, including 20 children. It's a familiar tale for Russia, which has used its support of Assad since 2015 for its own gain. Today, it's becoming increasingly clear that Vladimir Putin's military campaigns in Syria have been used as a proving ground for generals and an opportunity to test new weapons in real-life combat situations, and it's borne fruit some 1,200 miles away in its war in Ukraine.

Our guest today is retired Major General Rupert Jones, who was the deputy commander of the US-led coalition which defeated ISIS. Rupert, firstly, tell us how exactly Putin has done what we've just described, training up generals and testing weapons in Syria.

I mean, no question. From 2015 onwards, that's exactly what the Russian military had done. This was their first big deployment beyond their near abroad. It was a huge surprise to everybody when it happened. And in the years that followed, you know, during the top end of the civil war.

The Russians did all of the things you just described. They undoubtedly were testing weaponry, developing weaponry, marketing weaponry. Let's not kid ourselves. They were, you know, they were putting in the shop window that they could then sell because look how effective they've been in

in Syria. But as you say, they were also undoubtedly blooding, developing their soldiers, but critically, their senior commanders and many of the senior commanders who we've seen in Syria popped up in Ukraine. You'll remember General Serovkin, who was commanding Russian forces when I was in Iraq and Syria, dealing with ISIS.

And a great many of them kind of came back and forth between Syria and other duties and then in Ukraine. So no question, this gave them considerable operational experience. Now, of course, many of them had had operational experience previously in Chechnya and elsewhere. But this, if you like, took it to a different level.

And do you think all along, as long ago as 2015, that Putin might have been thinking about Ukraine and his plans when doing that? It's hard to know, isn't it? Because looking back on it, it feels as though that might well have been the play. But I wonder, because people may well disagree with me, but I've always seen Putin as more of an opportunist than a strategist.

Assad was under significant pressure. It was in his self-interest to go and prop him up. There were lots of other opportunistic benefits on which we've just talked about. Then an opportunity arises to go into Ukraine, into Crimea specifically, and nobody does anything about it. So there was an opportunity there. He went straight in through the front door.

I struggle to think that he would have then thought that the West would have left the door so open that he could go again with his recent incursion into the heart of Ukraine. The door was left open and the international community's collective lack of action back in 2014-2015

Putin to believe that they wouldn't act again and he misjudged that on this on that occasion but you know I always view Putin as a opportunist he's all about you know his own survival so would he have loved back in 2014 to think that he could ultimately try and take large swathes of Ukraine I'm sure he would but whether whether he thought that was feasible hard to know Rupert

But to me, Putin's interest in Syria has appeared clear secondary in his mind, given one story this week that he fired his general in Syria, who had already been effectively demoted from Ukraine for doing basically a terrible job there. Yeah, really telling, isn't it? You know, it does point to...

institutional failings in the Russian military, and we've talked about this all the way through, that what the Russian military have been unable to do is to conduct the theatre of war, orchestrate all the tools that give you success on the battlefield. And their big moment when they first invaded into Ukraine, heading towards Kiev, their total inability to orchestrate all of those things. And oh, by the way, it's hard.

No civilian should ever underestimate how difficult it is. It is what sets out really, really good from not good militaries. But my God, the Russians have demonstrated an inability to do that, to bring the air, the engineers, the infantry, all of these assets that you bring together in time and space to have an operational effect. The Russians have demonstrated an inability to do that.

Well, the reason they can't do that is that their leadership's not good enough. They're not agile enough. They're not dynamic enough. And so we see that. The proof of the pudding is the generals aren't good enough, and they'll fail in Ukraine. They'll fail in Syria. And they were able to hide a bit more in Syria because, of course, the adversary was weaker. It's a much more open battlefield, and it was much more about just dropping ordnance from the sky.

Finally, Rupert, how worried do you think Putin will be about Syria and the resources he's having to use in Aleppo in particular? Because, you know, he surely needs Russia's sole focus to be on Ukraine at the moment, doesn't he?

Yeah, I mean, it's certainly an additional headache he could well do without because, you know, we've talked often, haven't we, about in a way what's going on in Ukraine is a battle of industry as much as a battle of humans. And, you know, Russia has been consuming ammunition at a much, much higher rate than the Ukrainians, but they had a much bigger reserve to go to, you know,

But there, the ratio of munitions...

between them and the ukrainians has been dropping over the months and that points the fact that the the russians are you know they haven't got as much their their stockpiles are reducing and air delivered munitions are are even harder to produce you know a dumb shell is quicker to produce that than an air delivered munition and that's kind of what they need um uh in syria and and those are not quick are not quick to produce so it at

At least it's a logistics headache to him. But also, as we've seen elsewhere, you know, leaders, you know, Putin runs wars in a very centralized manner. You know, most things come up to him for decision making. And now, you know, he's got, you know, he's been pulled in different directions. That will always be a challenge for a leader.

Rupert Jones, former British Army Major General, thank you very much for joining us. Now on yesterday's episode we were discussing the apparently increasing possibility that the Ukraine war will end in negotiations. But was there a missed opportunity to hold those at the very start, avoiding a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and left nations across the world counting huge and varied costs?

Lord Richards, who was the Chief of Defence Staff from 2010 to 2013, has said analysis of Russia's position when its so-called special military operation began in February 2022 failed to spot an early chance for peace. He was speaking to Times Radio.

really right from the beginning, and it's born of many, many years studying it and doing war in various kinds. I felt that we had underestimated Russia's resolve and the fact that for Russia, it is an existential issue, the status of Ukraine, and it clearly is for Ukraine, but it never has been for the West. So

What we've done, sadly, is encourage them over two years to carry on fighting without ever giving the very brave people in question the means to win. And so I feel, and sadly, like a prophet without honour in my own land, because I felt there was a moment back in 22 when Ukraine was, if you like, at its high water mark.

when they should have negotiated, but they were encouraged not to and persuaded to carry on fighting. My own view is that Russia was never going to be defeated in the sense that we were all being led to believe, i.e. that Ukraine would regain the four oblasts in the east and Crimea. As I said, for Russia, this is an existential issue. It was beyond the pale for them

the very thought that Ukraine should be a member of NATO, for example. So they were, even if you did drive them out, they weren't defeated in the classic sense. No one was going to advance on Moscow and hold them to ransom. We were going to have a very embittered Russian bear who would have come back harder and with greater resolve still. So I never was in that group.

I felt that we should have gone on to what in the military we call a strategic defence back in 22 and made it impossible then for Russia to gain any more territory. And then maybe Putin, having realised that, would negotiate as it looks like he might be prepared to do now. That was former British Chief of Defence Staff Lord Richards, for whom hindsight appears as clear as his 2022 foresight when it comes to Ukraine.

That's it for today. Thank you for spending 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

We all want to enjoy food that tastes great and is sourced responsibly. But it's not always easy to know where your favourite foods come from. McDonald's works with more than 23,000 British and Irish farmers to source quality ingredients. Becky Berry is a beef farmer in the Wiltshire countryside who supplies beef to McDonald's for its iconic burgers. I'm part of a group of farmers and we've been on a journey that McDonald's have sponsored to help us with learning more about regenerative practices...

and how that can benefit us, our farms, the people and the animals that we're producing. It's a way of McDonald's giving back to the whole industry. What we're trying to do now is move the cows from where they've eaten and they're moving into a longer, lusher pasture. And part of that reason is to help the biodiversity.

As you can see here in the long grass, we've got moths and butterflies that have just hatched out. We can hear in the hedgerows around the outside of the field the birdsong. Change a little, change a lot. Find out more about McDonald's plan for change on the McDonald's website. What makes a great pair of glasses? At Warby Parker.

It's all the invisible extras without the extra cost. Their designer quality frames start at $95, including prescription lenses, plus scratch-resistant, smudge-resistant, and anti-reflective coatings, and UV protection, and free adjustments for life. To find your next pair of glasses, sunglasses, or contact lenses, or to find the Warby Parker store nearest you, head over to warbyparker.com. That's warbyparker.com.