2024 analysed: Netanyahu's year
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, James Hansen and Alex Dibble. As 2024 draws to a close, we are bringing you a series of episodes looking back at the last 12 months. Yesterday, we discussed what the past year has meant for Donald Trump. Today, we're looking at

Benjamin Netanyahu. It's been another eventful year for the Israeli Prime Minister. He's managed to hold together his fragile coalition government and he's received credit within Israel for the assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

However, he's ended the year on trial for corruption, and in November, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him. Our guest today is The Times' Israel correspondent, Gabriel Weineger. Gabriel, does Netanyahu end the year stronger than he started it?

I think he certainly ends it stronger than he started it. This year that started in January, let's say, let's just call it January, even though we could start it in October 2023 when Hamas infiltrated all those villages on Israel's southern border. He

He was so bogged down in the early months of war. He was bogged down in Gaza. He was bogged down in Lebanon. There was no end in sight for either of these conflicts. 1,200 people murdered, 240 kidnapped. It was a dreadful start to the year. Of course, there was a deal in November that released about half of them, but there were still at least 150 hostages come January. Tens of thousands of people, of Israeli citizens, evacuated from their homes, homes destroyed,

along the northern border, along the southern border. Israel had basically been cut in half in something that hasn't been seen in Israel's history, coming under attack across the country from Yemen, from Iran-backed militia in Syria and Iraq, direct attacks from Iran. It was something that I think was unimaginable to any historians, any journalists, any civilians, any onlookers. What was happening here was just shocking. And now...

as we come to the end of the year, we can see a Netanyahu that on one hand is standing trial, not only domestically, and we're seeing him in the docks, but also internationally with an international arrest warrant against him. He's still in the strongest position we've seen him in a long time. And this is a person, we have to say, who always seems to land on his feet. He is still in power.

When you look at recent polls within Israel, it doesn't look like he's dropped too much in popularity and people are still touting and singing his praises. And he still might take another election if there was to be one now. I think there are elements, certainly there are sects of Israeli population who would say differently, say that Netanyahu has completely failed them and he has had a terrible year and so

He's doing nothing to help the hostages in Gaza, doing nothing to end the war in Gaza. He ended the war with Hezbollah too early. But I think from an outside perspective, he's decimated Hezbollah. Iran is the weakest they've ever been. He's taken what Israel's called preemptive action in Syria. And

And is that really the key? Because prior to October 7th, Netanyahu's sort of political brand was that he was Mr. Security who could keep Israelis safe. And clearly the horrors of October 7th seriously undermined that.

But given Israel's success this year at targeting the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, and given the weakening of Iran, has he been able to re-establish that reputation? I think that's such a good question. You're right, he was known as Mr. Security, and that did trash his image.

But if you ask, and I have asked, residents of the North who still haven't gone back to their homes and residents of the South who still haven't seen an end to the war in Gaza, they don't feel any safer. They don't think that these conflicts are over. They think that there's kind of been a lid put on it in some way. Yes, he has killed and decapitated Hezbollah's leadership. Yes, he has killed the top at least two, if not three, of Hamas's leadership.

And he's taking credit for all of that. But while those leaders might not be in place anymore, some people say you cannot kill an idea. And Hamas is an idea. And Hezbollah is an ideology. The residents of Israel don't feel that that has gone away. Many, many people who I spoke to who are currently basically refugees within their own country and taking shelter in Tel Aviv instead of moving back to the northern border say,

they say that this hasn't been solved. It's just been put off for another day. And actually, that is kind of Netanyahu's status quo in a way. He's not one to start wars. He is hawkish, but he likes to see the end of wars very quickly. And that's been quite different this time because it's been one of the longest wars that Israel's ever fought.

One thing Netanyahu hasn't been able to achieve in 2024 is the return of the remaining hostages in Gaza. How much does that issue continue to haunt him? I think the families of the 101 hostages who are still held in Gaza wishes that the issue haunts him. We've heard from many, many families who feel that Netanyahu has not done enough. And not only has he not done enough to return the hostages, but actually actively

doesn't want to do a deal with Hamas to return the hostages because that would compromise his position as prime minister and compromise his hard right coalition government who have threatened to resign should he go ahead with some kind of deal with Hamas. So,

The families of those hostages don't feel like this haunts him in any way, and they don't feel like he's doing anything to bring them home. He's had several, several deals on the table, including a Biden deal, a Biden-backed deal. And when you look back at the previous hostage deal struck in November and also the hostage deal struck previously with Hamas in 2011,

The deals more or less always look the same. There's a few changes of wording here and there, but the basics are unchanging. So it's really about when he wants to do a deal and to make it happen, just like he chose when to do the deal in 2011 to swap captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit with thousands of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

The timing is up to Netanyahu and he is a master of that. And he will pick the right time that will keep him in government and not challenge the composition of his very delicate, hard right coalition government.

You mentioned earlier that he is ending the year facing corruption charges in Israel. And in November, the International Criminal Court issued that arrest warrant for him. But do either of those things really matter to him? I think they both matter quite a lot. But do they matter to Netanyahu? It doesn't appear so. He's done everything to avoid domestic trial, including moving, saying that the original location of the court in Jerusalem was not safe enough and having it moved to an underground location in Tel Aviv.

At the moment, we don't really know what's happening with those charges. We're just hearing arguments in court from the lawyers at the moment. But the images aren't good of having a man in the dock. But he survived it before and he'll survive it again. And the same with the ICC warrant. I imagine that he's counting very much on America's support.

to get him out of this quandary and out of these arrest warrants that are being fought against him and against Yoav Galen and possibly other military and senior officials that we don't yet know about. He seems to have somewhat taken it on the chin and...

called it a Dreyfus trial, basically saying this is an anti-Semitic accusation against him and will in no way admit or agree or see in any way that those accusations are correct. He's being accused of war crimes in Gaza. He's being accused of intentionally starving the civilian population.

These are things that he would never, ever admit to. And I don't think he'll ever stand trial for. He'll do everything in his power to avoid it, just like he'll do everything in his power to avoid going down on these domestic charges of fraud and corruption. And in the meantime, while he's standing trial domestically and potentially internationally, he will continue his efforts to eradicate media freedom and pull the reins in on the Supreme Court as well, which is the

highest bastion of democracy in Israel. And just finally, what will Netanyahu's main objectives be for 2025? As always, Netanyahu will be hoping to stay in power and he will do absolutely everything in his power to keep his position as Prime Minister, to avoid jail, and he will do everything he can to stay in the position that he's in now, to keep Gaza in this

holding pattern where the military will stay there and it will look more and more like the military occupation of the West Bank. And we can imagine that he will also be waiting for President Trump. And hopefully he will think that Trump will back him on any efforts he

he sees for Israel to go up against Iran. He's already kind of prepping journalists and saying that this is something that's going to happen and they're going to cut off the head of the snake. Now we've seen so many of the proxies go down. He will be waiting to see if Trump will support him on any joint American-Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities. And I

potentially look to claim victory over Iran and topple their regime as well. The question is, will Donald Trump buy this when he's quite clearly said that he ends wars and not starts wars? But we can be sure that Netanyahu will push for this kind of attack.

Gabrielle, thank you. That's The Times' Israel correspondent, Gabrielle Weinergap. Tomorrow, we will be looking at how 2024 has gone for Benjamin Netanyahu's enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah. So do join us for that with The Times correspondent Richard Spencer. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. At Leidos, a brilliant mind is smart, but a brilliant team is smarter.

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