cover of episode North Korea's role in the Ukraine War

North Korea's role in the Ukraine War

2024/10/19
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Fyodor Tertitskiy博士
韩国国家情报院
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泽连斯基政府和韩国情报机构声称朝鲜向俄罗斯派遣了超过10000名士兵支援乌克兰战争,这将是史无前例的举动。这一说法得到了部分西方媒体的报道支持,但同时也遭到了俄罗斯和朝鲜外交官的否认,以及部分西方官员的质疑,他们认为缺乏证据支持大规模朝鲜士兵参与战争的论断。 美国官员则警告说,俄罗斯和朝鲜之间的军事合作正在加深,朝鲜向俄罗斯提供了大量的军事物资,包括炮弹和导弹。英国记者的报道称,朝鲜提供了俄罗斯军队在对乌战争中每年使用的约300万发炮弹中的一半左右。 Fyodor Tertitskiy博士对朝鲜派遣大规模军队的说法表示怀疑,他认为这与朝鲜以往的军事策略和行为模式不符。他指出,朝鲜通常只派遣少量高级军官到国外进行军事援助或培训,而且需要最高领导人的亲自授权。朝鲜向来谨慎避免向国外派遣人员,特别是携带武器的人员,以防信息泄露。他认为,韩国国防部长关于朝鲜军队参战可能性很高的说法令人惊讶,并指出韩国在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰问题上的立场相对温和。 Tertitskiy博士还分析了俄罗斯与朝鲜、韩国以及中国之间的复杂关系。他认为,韩国试图通过与莫斯科保持关系来使其远离平壤,但这一策略似乎失败了。他还讨论了韩国可能向乌克兰提供武器以及俄罗斯可能向朝鲜提供先进技术的问题。他认为,朝鲜很可能在利用“萨拉米战术”逐步获取俄罗斯的技术。 Tertitskiy博士还分析了中国在俄朝联盟中的作用,他认为中国对俄朝军事合作持默许态度,因为这符合中国的利益,即维持朝鲜政权的稳定,避免战争进一步升级,并确保地区稳定和粮食安全。 最后,Tertitskiy博士分析了俄罗斯从朝鲜购买武器弹药的情况,他认为俄罗斯主要从朝鲜获得的是炮弹,而非先进武器,而且朝鲜可能会出售质量较差的弹药以获取利润。他还指出,俄罗斯和朝鲜之间的合作关系并非基于牢固的友谊,而是基于交易。 Fyodor Tertitskiy博士详细阐述了俄朝关系的历史背景,指出两国关系长期以来都充满了不真诚和欺骗。从1945年苏联占领朝鲜半岛的一部分开始,朝鲜在苏联和中国的支持下建立了政权。在苏中分裂后,金日成巧妙地利用两国之间的竞争,同时从两国获得援助。1990年,莫斯科和北京都与韩国建交,这激怒了平壤,导致朝鲜经济崩溃。此后,俄罗斯对朝鲜的政策基本保持不变,直到普京意识到朝鲜可以帮助其在乌克兰战争中取得胜利。 Tertitskiy博士还分析了朝鲜媒体对普京和俄罗斯的报道,指出朝鲜媒体在报道中会使用敬语来表达对朝鲜领导人的尊重,而对其他国家领导人的报道则相对克制。他认为,朝鲜媒体对普京的报道中,称俄罗斯人为“同志”是象征性的姿态。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

In the past few days, both the Zelensky administration in Kyiv and South Korea’s national spy agency have said that they believe North Korea has decided to send more than ten thousand troops to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. On October 18, following an emergency security meeting called by South Korea’s president, the country’s National Intelligence Service released an assessment claiming that the North is sending four brigades of 12,000 soldiers, including special forces, to Ukraine, which would be an unprecedented move, if true.

Diplomats in Russia and North Korea say these reports are false.

Meanwhile, American officials have warned repeatedly of the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, saying that Washington has observed signs of increased material support to Moscow, including both artillery shells and missiles, such as KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles that have been recovered from wreckage in Ukraine. According to British journalists, North Korea supplies Russia with about half of the approximately three million artillery shells that Russian forces use annually in the war against Ukraine.

However, Western officials have expressed skepticism about the claims that North Korea is sending large numbers of soldiers, apart from smaller groups of engineers and observers. For example, just the other day, NATO’s general secretary spoke at a press conference right alongside Zelensky and directly contradicted him, saying there is no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight.

For a crash course in Russian-North Korean relations and a hard look at recent claims from the Ukrainian and South Korean governments of thousands of North Korean soldiers flooding the battlefield in Ukraine, The Naked Pravda welcomed Dr. Fyodor Tertitskiy), a lecturer at Korea University and a leading researcher on North Korean politics.

Timestamps for this episode:

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(3:15) The historical context of North Korea’s military strategy

(5:41) South Korean diplomacy

(7:45) Potential military aid and consequences

(9:38) North Korean diplomatic tactics

(12:06) China’s role in the Russian-North Korean alliance

(14:46) Russia’s weapon purchases from North Korea

(19:12) The historical context of Soviet/Russian-North Korean relations

(25:04) Symbolic gestures for Vladimir Putin

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