cover of episode China's Implementation of the Global Security Initiative in Southeast and Central Asia

China's Implementation of the Global Security Initiative in Southeast and Central Asia

2024/12/4
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Bates Gill
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Bates Gill博士认为,中国全球安全倡议(GSI)的主要目标是重塑国际安全秩序,使其更有利于中国的国家利益。GSI旨在为中国在国际安全事务中,尤其是在发展中国家,扮演更大角色创造更有利的环境。GSI为中国安全部门与其他国家,特别是发展中国家,开展合作提供了机制和资金渠道。GSI与"和平崛起"叙事相似,旨在为中国在国际安全领域日益增长的作用创造更易于接受的国际环境。GSI并非完全取代现有安全合作,而是将既有活动纳入其中,并为未来更多合作创造可能性,例如警察培训、智慧城市技术、湄公河沿岸执法合作等。中国在东南亚和中亚的安全利益主要在于应对跨国非传统安全挑战(网络诈骗、人口贩卖、毒品和武器走私、恐怖主义),防止这些挑战蔓延至中国境内。东南亚和中亚国家总体上对中国全球安全倡议持正面态度,但同时也存在一些担忧,例如长期以来对中国野心的担忧;领土或资源争端;对过度依赖中国的担忧;担心中国利用该倡议扩大政治和外交影响力;担心该倡议可能导致公民社会发展、政治改革和法治倒退。澜沧江-湄公河合作机制是全球安全倡议的试点项目,通过为小型项目提供资金,支持警察培训、打击网络诈骗等活动。中国计划在中亚地区开展大规模执法人员培训项目,作为全球安全倡议的一部分。上海合作组织声明中未提及全球安全倡议,这可能是由于多种因素造成的,包括印度的反对以及中国对上海合作组织作用的重新评估。俄罗斯仍然是中亚地区的主要安全伙伴,中国全球安全倡议不太可能取代俄罗斯在该地区的影响力。中国与俄罗斯在中亚地区的合作更多体现在"软安全"领域,例如警察培训和技术销售。中国全球安全倡议对美国在东南亚和中亚的利益构成挑战,因为它挑战了美国主导的国际安全规范,并可能导致一些国家在政治改革和法治方面倒退。美国及其盟友可以与东南亚和中亚国家合作,应对网络犯罪、贩运等问题,并进行高层接触,以避免将该地区的安全领域完全拱手让给中国。 Bonnie Glaser主要对Bates Gill的观点进行引导和补充,并就一些细节问题进行提问。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the main objectives of China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI)?

The main objectives of China’s GSI include resetting the terms of the international system to be more favorable to China’s national interests, creating a more justifiable atmosphere for China to expand its security role, especially in the developing world, and establishing a bureaucratic and financial channel for concrete security cooperation with other countries.

How does the GSI relate to pre-existing Chinese security activities?

The GSI is being used to relabel and integrate pre-existing security activities, such as border guard training and low-profile security force presence, into a new framework. It also creates a pipeline for new security-related activities, including police training, smart city technologies, and law enforcement cooperation.

What are the key security interests of China in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and how is the GSI being used to promote them?

China's key security interests in these regions include addressing non-traditional, transnational security challenges like cybercrime, trafficking, and terrorism. The GSI is being used to assist neighboring governments in mitigating these issues to prevent them from spilling over into China.

What are the concerns of countries in Southeast Asia and Central Asia regarding China’s GSI?

Concerns include historical tensions, territorial disputes, fear of excessive Chinese influence, and potential backsliding in civil society development and political reform. Despite these concerns, most countries are open to cooperation with China to address internal security challenges.

How is the GSI being funded and implemented in these regions?

The GSI is funded through a budget managed by the Chinese foreign ministry. Local governments can apply for funding to undertake small projects like police training and technology exchanges. There are also larger initiatives, such as training 3,000 to 5,000 law enforcement personnel, which are more centrally controlled by China.

Why was the GSI not mentioned in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) joint statement?

The GSI was not mentioned in the SCO joint statement possibly due to protocol reasons, internal decision-making processes, or lack of consensus, particularly from India. China may also be shifting focus to other multilateral platforms like the China-Central Asia Summit for GSI implementation.

How does Russia view China’s GSI in Central Asia?

Russia does not see the GSI as a significant threat to its dominant security role in Central Asia. Regional governments still look to Moscow for security, and China is cautious not to alienate Russia. China’s security cooperation in the region is more focused on softer forms like police training and technology sales.

What are the implications of the GSI for U.S. regional interests in Southeast Asia and Central Asia?

The GSI challenges U.S.-led norms and approaches to international security, promoting a narrative that criticizes U.S. alliances and policies. It also helps authoritarian governments strengthen internal control, which runs counter to U.S. interests in promoting political reform and civil society development.

What should the U.S. do to respond to the GSI?

The U.S. should engage more actively in addressing the security needs of countries in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, such as cybercrime and trafficking, through capacity building and high-level strategic dialogues. The U.S. should also work with allies to ensure that these regions do not become solely dependent on China for security cooperation.

Shownotes Transcript

China’s push to revise the international security order entered a new phase with the launch of the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022. A few months after Xi Jinping proposed GSI, host Bonnie Glaser did a podcast episode with Manoj Kewalramani to discuss the drivers behind GSI and analyze the initial statements outlining its content. 

More than 2 ½ years have elapsed since then, and scholars have begun to investigate how China is implementing GSI in various regions around the world. A new report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines how GSI is being operationalized and received in two priority regions of Chinese foreign policy: mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The study draws on field research in both regions. The report is titled “China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia.” The report has three authors: Bates Gill, Carla Freeman and Alison McFarland. Bonnie Glaser is joined by Bates Gill for this episode to discuss the report’s findings. 

Bates is a senior fellow with the National Bureau of Asian Research, a Senior Associate Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, and associated with USIP.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:53] Objectives of China’s Global Security Initiative 

[04:22] GSI as an Additive or a Replacement

[07:21] Fieldwork in Southeast and Central Asia

[12:06] Concerns about China’s Intentions and Influence

[15:24] GSI Initiatives and Sources of Funding

[19:58] GSI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

[23:55] Moscow’s View of GSI 

[29:27] Implications of GSI for the United States