Who are the rebels threatening Assad's grip on Syria?
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This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. I'm Crassie Twigg, and on the documentary we zoom in on the backstory of the Syrian militant group that led a coalition of rebels to take control of Aleppo. Once an offshoot of al-Qaeda, HDS rebranded itself in its desire to be seen as a credible governing body.

To listen to this episode of The Global Jigsaw, where we look at the world through the lens of its media, search for the documentary wherever you get your BBC podcasts. When I started at the VA, my initial position as a clinical pharmacist was just to see patients for prescription renewals. Now we're looking at the patient in a different way, in whole health.

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The 13-year civil war in Syria has unexpectedly sprung back into the spotlight. That's after rebel groups launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo, one of the country's largest cities. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to crush the rebel uprising, prompting airstrikes from Russian forces allied with his regime.

And this was an unexpected resurgence of a conflict that has largely been dormant for years. So who are the rebels who have seized control of Aleppo? And will this redraw the lines of Syria's long-running civil war?

Now with me today is Meena Alami, who is a jihadist media specialist with BBC Monitoring. Hi, Meena. Hi. And we are going to be joined a little later in the episode by BBC correspondent Barbara Platt-Usher, who's been monitoring events from Beirut.

But before we get to what is happening in Syria right now, I think it's important to remind everyone who is listening about what happened in the country for the past 13 years since the civil war began. So, Mina, could you take us back to 2011, to anti-government protests and how this all started? So in 2011, as you mentioned, there were anti-government protests. They started small in Daraa, in small pockets in Syria.

And then they grew, and of course it was in the context of the so-called Arab Spring, so they were really inspired and galvanized to do something similar to what happened in Egypt and Tunisia, and of course they did want to topple the government of Bashar al-Assad. The response was very strong and aggressive from the Syrian government, and they were

And there were more and more officers defected. There were rebel groups who rose in Syria. But it was really tainted eventually because the jihadists came in. So we had al-Qaeda and we had IS.

And even countries that initially backed some of the rebel groups at the time, it was known as the Free Syrian Army, that no one really wanted to touch any of the opposition and the rebel groups because they feared that the weapons that they were providing or any of the funds would eventually end up in the hands of the jihadists. And that's actually what happened in many of the situations.

And so it was really hijacked. The revolution was hijacked by the jihadist groups. And there were players, external countries involved as well, weren't there? Because not only were there those loyal to Assad, the rebels, foreign fighters, there were also countries like Iran, Russia, a group like Hezbollah, which is prescribed a terrorist organization by the US, the United Kingdom and other Western countries.

They were parties that Assad was depending on. Absolutely. And that's what complicated the situation in Syria. As you said, there were many players, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, were supporting President Assad. And actually, they are the reason why he managed to hold on to power and eventually regain a lot of the territory that the rebels had taken. And then, of course, rebel groups, various rebel groups, I wouldn't say the jihadists, but some of the Islamist groups,

They were supported by a variety of international players from Turkey to Gulf countries and

Like I said, eventually the support decreased because of the jihadists coming in. But in the past few years, the Syrian government has managed to retake most of the areas that the rebels had taken in the early years of the civil war. So the country, you know, eventually was divided into various pockets. The majority of the country has been controlled by the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iranian militias.

And then there are small pockets of opposition areas in the north. So in the northwest, notably, it's been controlled by the group called Hey at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS, a small pocket in northern Syria controlled by Turkey-backed rebel group.

formerly known as the Free Syrian Army. And then in the northeast, it's controlled by Kurdish-backed rebel groups. And just to really emphasize the stakes here of why there's so much attention to what happened and what is happening now, this was a really brutal and violent war. Could you remind us of some of the horrific scenes that we were witnessing day in, day out? I mean, of course, it was for years. Many will remember, you know, the barrel bombs,

Used by the Syrian government, the intensive bombardment of civilian areas, various areas held by rebel groups.

We heard the first blast and I asked my husband to go and get the kids off the street. And suddenly it hit us. It was like someone picked me up and threw me inside. There were lots of civilian casualties. There were accusations of use of chemical weapons. You know, that really exacerbated the tensions, the hatred, the animosity. It really created also communal tensions.

between communities that continued to be ruled by government forces and rebel areas. And so a peace agreement had never been reached, of course, and you're talking about the way that the country was sort of factionalized this way. But the war had essentially been dormant, it felt like, the past few years, with Assad and his government in full control of major cities and

What has been happening during that relatively quiet period? So around 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered some kind of, not a peace deal, but a de-escalation, kind of a buffer zone in northern Syria to make sure that the opposition groups and the government forces do not clash. And of course, over the past five years, there have been skirmishes and there have been definitely in recent months, bouts of Syrian government forces bombing areas in Idlib and

But during that period, the group Hey at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS has been trying to reinvent itself. You know, it's trying to move away from its jihadist past. It used to be known as Nusra Front, which was al-Qaeda's branch in Syria. And now,

Since it severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, it created a front group called the Salvation Government. So it's a kind of a de facto authority within Idlib and the rebel-held areas. And they created also what they called ministries, Ministry of Health, of Media, of Human Rights.

And they've been really trying to project this image that they are the legitimate rulers of this area. But also they've been trying to say that, you know, we have no lasting jihadist links. We don't have any global jihadist ambitions. It's really part of the ongoing Syrian revolution. But what they failed to do in the past few years, and this is the difference that we've seen since last week,

they failed to get other rebel groups to come under their banner and do something together. So they've been trying for years to achieve what they call unity. But of course, the rebel groups have been very wary of HTS because they think actually either they still have jihadist links or they're really trying to kind of spearhead something and then take all the political gains for themselves. So HTS,

What really held back the rebel groups or the opposition is the utter fragmentation of these groups. So the difference now is that they have managed somehow to come together and to agree on a certain objective, which is to recapture the areas they lost to the Syrian government. And so what do they want exactly? And who is their leader? Do they have a big figurehead who is leading this?

So with the latest offensive, what they declared is that they simply wanted to recapture Aleppo province. But I think the speed and the momentum took the rebels by surprise because government forces collapsed very quickly. And so from then on, they marched to Hama and areas of Idlib. And then all of a sudden it became, oh, it's possible.

actually, you know, maybe in the near future to take over Damascus. They felt like there was momentum. There was momentum. Of course, the overall, you know, goal of not only HTS, but all these rebel groups is to topple the Syrian government. That is their goal. And what they've been trying to do as well, they have this very slick PR organization

operation. And they've been trying to put out messages to the international community, to even adversaries like Russia. You know, they told Russia, we don't intend to harm, we have no ambitions beyond Syria. And in fact, in future, we do want good relationship with Russia. The same with Iraq, they said, please do not allow the Shia militias to come through the Iraqi borders, because we want to have good relationship with the Iraqi authorities. The same with the Kurds,

and the same with messages to the religious minorities. Now, in terms of who's leading this, it actually has a very clear leader who craves the limelight. And that is someone called Abu Muhammad Jolani. Now, Jolani was the head of al-Qaeda's

Syria branch, Nusra Front. But in the past year, you know, he's gone on a charm offensive to try to reinvent himself as this moderate militant figure. But they have these jihadist roots.

They do, and HTS is still prescribed as a terrorist organization by the US and the UK. But you can see, for example, in recent days, you can see Jolani in videos that HTS has been putting out on the phone with the militants on the front line saying, oh, please make sure to not harm the civilians. You know, make sure that, you know, you conduct yourself in a certain way that is not intimidating. We are not here to intimidate the people. We are here to liberate them, according to him. So they've been really trying to kind of

play that PR and media game to make sure that they get some support from, if not support, that at least no one works against them. And Mina, what is it like living under Assad's Syria? Why has there been so much violence? Why has there been this effort to protest? I think, like I said, people were really dazzled by...

by the achievements or the gains that protesters in Egypt and in Tunisia achieved. And it was through really kind of grassroot organization through social media. And I

I think it became just for the first time. And I remember, you know, I am from the region. I remember thinking, wow, I never thought that people could organize themselves in such a way because it is terrifying. I grew up, you know, under the Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, and I would have never thought that people, ordinary people, could take to the streets and risk their lives and, you know, and speak out against the government. And so I think Syria, where also there is the Ba'ath Party regime, similar to Iraq, is

You know, people for the first time felt that actually they could do something and they could pressure the government and that these governments could be worried now for the first time and they might at least...

carry out some reforms. And I think that's what the people in Syria were initially calling for, reforms. What kind of reforms? What was it that they were so worried about in Syria? I think some of it has to do with political freedoms. You know, a lot of it was the economy. People were just, you know, in countries like Tunisia and Egypt, it was the economy, but also political freedoms. People, you know, with the advent of, you know, the internet, globalizations, people were seeing what was happening around the world, what the possibilities were.

And they wanted that and they wanted some of that kind of those freedoms that other peoples in other parts of the world enjoyed. So we've looked at why there's so much attention around events in Syria and who the rebel groups are who've launched this surprise offensive. Next, let's look at the surprise attack, who is involved and how President Bashar al-Assad may respond. ♪

I'm Crassi Twig, and on the documentary we zoom in on the backstory of the Syrian militant group that led a coalition of rebels to take control of Aleppo. Once an offshoot of al-Qaeda, HDS rebranded itself in its desire to be seen as a credible governing body. To listen to this episode of The Global Jigsaw, where we look at the world through the lens of its media, search for the documentary wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

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I've been speaking with Meena Alami and joining us now is our BBC correspondent on the ground in Beirut, Barbara Platasha. Hi, Barbara. Hello. You've been monitoring everything that has been happening in the last few days. So could you explain what we know about the situation?

about what has happened, who has carried this offensive out and what territories have been gained. This offensive was carried out by a rebel coalition which is led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HST. Now HST controls a sort of

stronghold of the rebels in the northwest of the country. It's the province of Idlib where the rebels had been pushed over the past decade of civil war and basically that's their area of control. What they have done is moved out of it with the help of other rebel groups so it's a coalition of

And they have launched an offensive against the Syrian regime, managed to get to Aleppo, and then also further down south on the way to this, the fourth largest city, Hama. So they've moved out of their northwest area, sort of east and south, and captured territory in a lightning kind of operation that I think probably surprised even them, given how much

territory they controlled. The advance seems to have slowed for now, but they are holding on to the ground that they've captured. And you mentioned that they were surprised by how quickly Assad's forces fell in those areas. And we heard and we saw those images of rebel forces seizing Assad's own tanks. Allahu Akbar, this is a tanker.

How much of a surprise was this for Assad and his allies? Well, from what we understand, this rebel coalition led by HST has actually been preparing for this offensive for quite a long time. It's been building up its military capability. It's been training fighters. It's organized quite a sophisticated media campaign. It's set up this joint operations command with other groups. So I think people who watch the region closely could see that something was coming.

What I think surprised them was how far the rebels got and how quickly they got. So the regime really does seem to have been caught on the back foot. They met almost no resistance. The Syrian forces seem to just melt away. They started this offensive on a Wednesday, and by Friday they were in the middle of Aleppo, which is Syria's second largest city, and now they've pretty much taken control of that city. So I think the surprise really was how quickly they were able to make these gains. Aleppo, such a symbolic city.

where now we're hearing explosions once again. Could you explain why that's significant? Well, it's Syria's second largest city, so an important economic centre and strategic area just in and of itself. But it's important for the war also because the battle for Aleppo, if you may remember, in 2016 was the turning point. The Russians had joined the war just the year before to help the Syrian forces against the rebels who were on the front foot.

And then there was a long battle for Aleppo in which the city was under siege for many months. And once the Syrian regime won that battle, that was essentially the point where the rebels were clearly losing at that stage. And as I said, began to be pushed more and more into that northwest corner of Syria. So it's quite symbolic as well.

for the rebels to not just take territory, but to actually show that they can take this city, the size of it, the symbolic importance of it is a huge blow to Assad. It's an embarrassment and it also just exposes how weak his regime has become. And so, Barbara, you're there in Beirut. What do you make of the timing of this? How much does what's going on in Gaza, in Lebanon, all the diverging priorities for Iran affect the situation?

So as I said, it has been planned for some time, but I think that the rebels are taking advantage of the turmoil in the Middle East and how that has affected Iran because, of course, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah are very important, have been very important, I should say, in helping prop up the Syrian regime. The Syrians would not have won against the rebels without the help of Iran and Hezbollah.

But they have now been weakened by Israeli military operations and strikes over the past year, but especially over the past months against Hezbollah in Lebanon, of course. But also the Israelis have been striking Iranian targets in Syria. So they are on the back foot and less kind of focused on the Syrian regime and helping the Syrian regime than they might have been. You also have Russia attacking.

Bashar al-Assad's other key ally, who's busy with the war in Ukraine. So you have his main supporters distracted and busy with conflicts elsewhere. So I think that has helped the timing of an operation that had been planned for some time. Well, so to that point, how do you think...

this fallout could impact the wider region? You know, you're in Beirut right now and Lebanon is home to so many Syrian refugees who've had to flee the conflict in their home country in the first place. So how would that instability in Syria have an impact across the region? Well, we're waiting to see how this plays out. But I think what you can say is you're looking at a conflict that is in Syria, which was largely dormant.

And the focus was on Gaza. The focus was on Lebanon. And now this has been revived at a time when the Middle East is already really in turmoil. And the conflict in Syria does have direct links to what's been going on till now through Lebanon. So Hezbollah has been fighting for the Syrian regime. Iran has been using Syria as a route to send weapons to Hezbollah.

And so it has those links already. And now that the violence there has ticked up, this just compounds the volatility of what's going on in the region. It just throws another element into the mix. I think what you can ask, I mean, when you look at where we go from here, Iran and Russia are important to follow. So they've said that they will continue to support Assad, the Assad regime. But the question to ask is how much they will do that and how they will do that. We have heard Iran's own foreign minister, al-Akhchi, express his support for Assad's

as he saw rebels claim control of Aleppo and Idlib. I clearly delivered the message of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Bashar al-Assad, a message of resistance, steadfastness and the support and backing of Iran for the Syrian government, the Syrian army, the Syrian people and Mr Bashar al-Assad.

The rebels will be confronted and I am confident that this phase, like the previous one, will also be passed with pride by the government, the people of Syria and the Syrian army. And yes, while we know that Russia is distracted with what's going on in Ukraine with their invasion, we have heard from the spokesman for President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov.

saying that Russia is committed to supporting Assad. Of course, we continue to support Bashar Assad. And at the appropriate levels, we will continue our contacts, analyze the situation, and a position will be formed on what is needed to stabilize the situation. Will they be able to send reinforcements to help Assad regain territory?

or will they just decide to focus on defending Damascus and the strategic areas along the coast rather than push for a major counter-offensive against the territory already taken? I think the other question to ask is whether this will be a catalyst to push Bashar al-Assad for a political settlement with the rebels. You know, you've had Turkey strongly pushing for that over the past year, and it's widely believed that this offensive could not have happened sooner.

without the tacit support or at least the approval of Turkey, because it backs some of the groups in the rebel coalition. And the idea is that perhaps this was seen as a way to put pressure on the Syrian regime to try to get that settlement. So the three of them are meeting about this now, the Russians, the Iranians and the Turks.

And we'll need to keep a close eye on that. But what you're really looking at, I think, is a sort of scramble or a struggle for this new balance of power in Syria. All right, Barbara, thank you for all that. I know you need to get back to your reporting on the ground in Beirut. So appreciate your time. My pleasure. Thank you.

So, Meena, when you look at Bashar al-Assad and the options he has on the table, the resources, how different is the picture today as he contemplates his response compared to what happened before? Of course, he will be relying heavily on support from Russia and Iran and Hezbollah.

But, you know, the opposition or the, you know, the offensive currently, they had that in mind specifically because they figured that Russia will be preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, Hezbollah in Iran, if not preoccupied now with the, you know, war in Gaza in Lebanon, but at least weakened by it. So they reckon that maybe all of the big backers of Assad will be too distracted and preoccupied with their own issues to come to his aid.

And I think the quick collapse of Syrian government forces in Aleppo gave the rebel groups more

hope, I guess, to kind of to move on to other areas. But of course, the fact that they've now captured Aleppo, you know, large parts of Aleppo and some parts of Hama and Idlib doesn't mean, you know, I think what the main thing is, will they be able to hold on to it? Because already the Syrian government and the Russian Air Force has been pounding certain areas in Aleppo and Idlib.

Iran is sending some of its own advisers on the ground. Exactly. So it really remains to be seen whether they will be able to hold on to these areas and also who, you know, if they have support from, you know, regional backers.

And in the meantime, there are civilians who will remember what has happened before, will remember the terror of the years, the height of that civil war, who are now facing another question, which is, will they have to go through it all over again? The people there, they were like surprised about

what's happening. They are like blocking the street and trying to understand the situation that they are in. I spoke to a woman and she said that they are feeling scared about the situation. They don't know what to do. I think the difficulty for people on the ground is that

these areas are constantly changing hands. So it was, of course, the Syrian government, then the rebel groups, then the Syrian government, and now the rebels again. And even with the reassurances that, for example, rebel groups are giving to the locals, and even when the Syrian government comes in and gives reassurances, I think the difficulty is that even if no one directly harms them, they could be caught in the crossfire. And I think that's what the locals are worried about, about being caught up in the bombardment between these two forces. So it is

indeed, you know, very difficult time for the local population. Mina Al-Ami, thank you so much for your time. Thank you.

And thanks so much to you for listening. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at theglobalstory at bbc.com or you can send us a message or even a voice note on WhatsApp. Our number is plus44 330 123 9480. You can find those details in our show notes. Wherever you're listening in the world, this has been The Global Story. Thank you for having us in your headphones. Bye for now.

I'm Crassi Twig, and on the documentary we zoom in on the backstory of the Syrian militant group that led a coalition of rebels to take control of Aleppo. Once an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, HDS rebranded itself in its desire to be seen as a credible governing body. To listen to this episode of The Global Jigsaw, where we look at the world through the lens of its media, search for the documentary wherever you get your BBC podcasts.