What to expect next year: Global predictions for 2025
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Hi there, I'm Azdeh Moshiri from the BBC World Service. This is a special edition of The Global Story and our 2025 Correspondence Look Ahead.

Now, if this year was the year of elections, around half of the world's population went to the polls this year alone, then 2025 will be the year the election winners try to deliver on their promises. Among them, incoming US President Donald Trump, who's criticised the status quo both domestically and abroad. The world will also enter 2025 with wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan. Could there be any breakthroughs?

And we'll be discussing something that affects the whole world, climate change. Over the course of the next hour, some of the BBC's top correspondents will be giving us their predictions on what they think will happen in the next 12 months.

Now let's start with the United States. A lot of what happens in 2025 will be determined by what Donald Trump does as he re-enters the White House for a second term. He's promised a huge overhaul of government, has two big wars to deal with, not to mention a potential trade war if he carries through with his tariff threats. Let's bring in Anthony Zerker, the BBC's senior North America correspondent who's in Washington, D.C. Hi, Anthony. Hello. Great to be here.

So, Anthony, Donald Trump has made some interesting choices when it comes to his cabinet. What can you glean in terms of what priorities will be for Donald Trump in 2025?

Well, I think what you saw from some of his earliest picks was that his focus is going to be on what he campaigned on, and that is restricting immigration, undocumented migration into this country, and addressing trade deficits and using tariffs and trade in order to give the United States an economic advantage. People like Stephen Miller were named to the White House, very much anti-immigration, anti-undocumented migration advocates.

outspoken advocate within the Trump circle. Tom Homan, who was also one of the ones who spearheaded the family separation policy where undocumented families that came across the border during the first Trump administration, the parents were separated from their children. He is now in a key immigration role. On economics, some of the top picks

such as Tom Besant for Treasury Secretary. He's more of a traditionalist, but down below, people like Peter Navarro, very much an advocate of using tariffs to generate revenue, to protect American industries. So I think you're going to see that be a priority for this administration. And then there's some other interesting picks.

Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence. She has been very critical of an interventionist American foreign policy. And you see people like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being appointed as health secretary, someone who's a vaccine skeptic, someone who is very much against vaccines.

big pharmaceutical corporations and big agribusiness. So you're going to see a lot of different things pulling this administration in different directions. But I think the through line for all of this is a lot of the people being appointed to key policy positions, key cabinet positions, are people who are sharply critical of what the government is doing now. So they could be tearing things down and reframing how this government works from the ground up and from day one.

Also, when it comes to tearing things down and overhaul, this isn't Donald Trump's first rodeo. It's his second term in office. So do you think that he'll have a better grasp of and more power to enact some of what he wants to do, some of those priorities you just talked about?

I think there were some lessons learned from the first time around. There wasn't a lot of preparation made running up until Donald Trump's victory in 2016. He came into office without kind of a core of experienced supporters and advocates, but

who were willing to follow his marching orders and and shared his ideological outlook so he leaned heavily on more institutional establishment republicans and that created conflicts within the first trump administration those people are gone they're not even in the republican party anymore so donald trump is surrounded by loyalists he has

a group of people who all share his ideology, who are all very much in favor of this kind of conservative populism that Donald Trump has spoken about. So the staffing is going to be different this time around. And I think there's an awareness and a preparation that has gone in the past few years

to have an agenda that they can enact and avoid some of the roadblocks, avoid some of the procedural and legalistic obstacles that were put in the way the first time around. This time, they don't think they will get derailed by lawsuits as much as they were the first time around. They don't think they will be derailed by the internal bureaucracy as much this time around as last time. You have a plan, and when you put it in action, things can change. But at least this time, they're more optimistic about being able to hit

And so when it comes to foreign policy, in his victory speech, he said, I'm not going to start a war, I'm going to stop wars. And of course, the US has been Ukraine's biggest backer since Russia's full scale invasion in 2022. So I wonder what you think Donald Trump wants when it comes to Ukraine and Russia and perhaps what his plan might be.

Well, he's always had a more sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and Russia in general. And that dates back to before his first term in office. He has said kind things about Vladimir Putin, offered praise on him. He seems to have. He touts the fact that he has a good relationship with the Russian leader. So, yeah.

I think coming into this, there's going to be more skepticism on Trump's part and the people around him towards long-term support of Ukraine and the Ukrainian war effort against Russia. You know, he campaigned on ending the war on day one, even before he took office. Now, everyone said that that was unrealistic, but I think it shows where Donald Trump's

priorities are that he is more focused on ending the hostilities, even if it's on terms that are not great for Ukraine, rather than the Biden administration policy, which was to give Ukraine as much military support and allow them to fight for as long as they could, because the American position up until now was that Ukraine

would be the ones that set the terms of the end of the war and Ukraine wanted to maintain its territorial integrity. That could change. The reality is shifting, obviously, if American support is curtailed, which it looks like it might be, because not only is Donald Trump skeptical of continued American support for Ukraine, but the Republicans in Congress who control both chambers of Congress are much more skeptical as well. So the ground beneath

defeat in this conflict is changing. And I think that is going to force Ukraine and the Ukrainian leaders and Vladimir Zelensky to take a look at finding a way to extricate themselves from this war on the least bad terms possible. But it is a different sort of negotiating framework that I think we had up until now. As we record this on December the 19th, our BBC Russia editor Steve Rosenberg is at Vladimir Putin's annual press conference in Moscow. But

I did catch up with him yesterday and this is what he had to say. Steve, this isn't the first time Vladimir Putin is preparing for Donald Trump to enter the Oval Office. But what do you think is different this time compared to 2016?

Well, I think this time around they're keeping their expectations a little bit lower. I remember in 2016, Russia had very high hopes that Donald Trump coming into the White House was going to overnight transform US-Russian relations. They thought that Trump was the man who was going to be friends with Russia and do everything to help Moscow. And I can remember how a pro-Kremlin party leader in parliament

here ordered over 130 bottles of champagne to celebrate Trump's victory in 2016. But you know, the bubbly went a bit flat because relations actually got worse under Donald Trump Mark 1. That's when you saw more sanctions being introduced. So it didn't quite go right. Now this time round,

I think Trump will have a little bit more freedom. He won't be as constrained as he was in his first presidency to carry out the kind of policies he wants to. So if he does want to carry out a more pro-Moscow policy, you know, the Republicans now have won control of the Senate. They've maintained control of the House. They've got

the White House, of course, then that may be more possible. And I think the Russians are still hoping that's the kind of President Trump Mark II that they're going to see, someone who is wanting to mend relations with Moscow. If you listen to what Trump said on the campaign trail, he never criticised Vladimir Putin.

He criticised Joe Biden a lot, but not Vladimir Putin for Russia's war in Ukraine. And if you listen to what members of Trump's team say, for example, Donald Trump Jr., J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, they've been publicly very critical of President Zelensky of Ukraine. So I think that's why the Russians are hoping that Trump Mark II will actually be good for Russia.

Well, so to that point, earlier this month, Donald Trump said that Vladimir Zelensky wants a deal to end the war. Do you believe Putin wants a deal himself? And if so, what would it look like? I think if Vladimir Putin was sitting here instead of me, he would tell you, of course, I want a deal. Of course, I want peace. But if you look into the details of what kind of a deal he'd like, I think it would look like the capitulation of Ukraine. I mean, the Russians have already said...

They want to keep what they call the new regions of Russia, basically parts of Ukraine that they have occupied. So in other words, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, and not just the areas they're occupying, but the parts of those regions that are still under Ukrainian control. They've said that Ukraine mustn't join NATO. It should be a neutral country. It should give up hopes of joining NATO. And they're demanding that Western sanctions be removed.

Put all that together, that would look like total victory, I think, for Russia and the capitulation of Ukraine. In terms of how this would play at home for Vladimir Putin, are there deals that would look like a failure for Putin? Are his hands tied in some ways?

To an extent, for example, if Russia were to agree to Ukraine joining NATO, I think it would be very hard for the Kremlin to spin that domestically as a victory for Russia. Anything else, I think he can present to the Russian people as a victory. I detect...

in Russia from people we speak to, there is a fatigue definitely with the war. People are tired after three years of war. People want some hope here for the future and that's why I think people would be ready to be sold.

a victory by the Kremlin. All right, Steve Rosenberg, thank you so much for all your insight. You're welcome. Well, so that's the view from Moscow. Anthony, I wonder what your reaction is to some of what was said there, as well as how you view the relationship between Trump and Putin in 2025.

I think Steve hit on something very important, and that is how Donald Trump has talked about Russia on the campaign trail or not talked about Russia. He never blamed Russia for invading Ukraine. He never condemned it. He never said it was an illegal war. He really only talked about all the bloodshed, all the violence that has happened since the invasion and how that has to stop.

and the horrible burden that has been placed on Ukraine. So this pointing the finger towards Russia and saying that they're responsible for this and therefore they should pay a higher price or they should face some sort of consequences. None of that talk came out of Donald Trump's mouth. Right.

And we could talk for hours, Anthony, about what Donald Trump will and won't do. But one thing Donald Trump has talked a lot about are tariffs, both on the campaign trail and afterwards. I wonder whether you think that he would follow through with some of those threats.

Yeah, that's a big question. On the campaign trail, Donald Trump talked about what a beautiful word tariffs are and how that they could be used not just as a tool to achieve policy ends, but as a new kind of reality for how politicians

in the United States deals with not just adversaries and competitors like China, but even allies like Canada and Mexico and Europe. He talked about the revenues, all the revenues that could be generated by tariffs that could then be used to fund businesses

programs here in the United States, whether it's child care programs or support for farmers or any of the tax cuts that he's talking about over the course of the campaign. It'll be interesting to see whether he follows through with that, because that would be a fundamental reshaping of the current international economic order.

Well, it's impossible to talk about China, at least, without bringing in the BBC's China correspondent, Laura Bicker, who is in Beijing for us. Hi, Laura. Hello. How are you doing? Good. Well, I want to get your reaction to something that Anthony just said. He talked about, he used the words campaign bluster. I wonder whether politicians in China see some of the threats he's been making about tariffs as campaign bluster or whether they're taking them seriously. Yeah.

Oh, they're bracing themselves here in China. They've experienced the first trade war. They've learned from that and they're getting ready for a second if it comes. Yep, the big question is, as Anthony's just said, is this a threat?

Is this a way of getting China to perhaps play more fairly? Or is this a real campaign threat that's going to be carried out on day one? We just don't know. But so far, China has been incredibly bullish. They have bristled at the mention of tariffs.

There have been many speeches by the foreign ministry and others talking about win-win cooperation and how a trade war would hurt both countries. So the warning is there, but there will be real fear. Look, when you speak to people on the streets, whether it's businesses, whether it's people in the park, the one thing that they are worried about is the economy, because domestically the economy is not doing well here in China. You've got house prices that are

incredibly low. You've got high unemployment rates among teenagers and the low 20s, people coming out of university. There are many, many issues that they're trying to grapple with. So there is a real worry that tariffs might hit their economy. So they do not want another trade war. But it comes back to what I just said. They learned from the first time around. So what they did was they diversified. China has...

extended its arms across the world. It has made friends with Brazil. It's just recently repaired its relationship with India, Australia. It is making an outreach towards Southeast Asia. It is also re-establishing its ties with Korea, with Japan. It is determined to diversify its relationships.

Trump's. Take soy beans, for instance. This is something that America used to be the number one supplier for here in China. It no longer is. They go to Brazil, they go to Argentina, they go elsewhere. So what China is saying is, look, you hit us with tariffs, we will find other ways to do business. And that's exactly what they've done. In fact, Donald Trump has a nickname here in China. It's called Chuang Chiang Kuo. What it means is Trump

the Chinese nation builder. And the reason they've called him that is because first time round, they believe that he helped the Chinese nation find ways to diversify, to make more high-tech products and to find other markets for them. So that's how they see that here.

Well, and China has made no secret that it wants to minimize U.S. influence globally. And it's part of that so-called axis of power. And you've talked about friends. You know, we can talk about Russia. We can talk about Iran. I wonder how you see all of that playing out in 2025 and how that so-called axis of power is actually faring.

So, I think I have a very different view of this access of power. I've heard a lot about it and certainly in the West it's a phrase that's used to describe China, Russia, North Korea and Iran and their relationship. There's no doubt.

China is close to Russia. America has accused China of helping supply components that Russia is using in its war. Obviously, North Korea is a key neighbor. Obviously, it has a relationship with Iran. But that is not the kind of relationship that President Xi wants the world to see. President Xi wants China to be a global power

a global leader. It does not want to be seen on the same podium as a country that has gone to war in Ukraine, and that now includes North Korea. So I think although the West sees it as this kind of, I've heard the phrase, axis of evil, China would not see itself as part of that. President Xi would continue and will continue in 2025 and onwards to try to project China as this global leader. And that is why.

You have seen President Xi travel more than any other Chinese leader. That is why they have created a Chinese media to try to propagate China's message right across the world. And that is why you've seen him create alliances from the BRICS alliance that we've seen to kind of making outreach towards the global south and extending their belt and road. These are investments abroad, and that includes the likes of Africa, South America. They believe these are places that America does not have

have influence anymore. And if you go to certain places, you will see that the bridges, the streets, the roads, all the transport networks have been made by China. They send their labour, they send their people over there, they build these massive projects and in return they have this relationship. So I think what you'll see from President Xi is an extension of that. They will continue to do that throughout 2025. And I think when you see Donald Trump

enter the White House, President Xi will try to compare himself and in contrast, and if Donald Trump starts a trade war or if he starts causing problems, not just around the world, but here in Asia, President Xi will try to perhaps make more of an effort with the likes of his Asian allies.

Xi Jinping in 2017 did host Donald Trump for a state visit. That was pretty much the peak of their relationship during that period. I wonder what you think Xi Jinping actually wants from his relationship with Donald Trump. What he would want it to be like?

I think so you saw the 2017, I mean it was a massive kind of state banquet. Donald Trump was allowed into the Forbidden City, very very, in fact I can't remember the last time we've seen a leader allowed into the Forbidden City. It was a massive event here and I think when you look at that and you see the high point and then it really went downhill when it came to Covid and

And he called it the Chinese virus. He blamed China for covering it up.

And since then, the relationship between the United States, even under President Biden, has really not been great. In fact, it hit another low. Remember the spy balloon that flew over North America? And then not long after, Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. I spoke to the U.S. ambassador just earlier this year, and he said at that time there was very, very little communication between the two sides. He said it was really difficult to get a conversation with any Chinese official. Now, since then, ties have stabilised.

So Donald Trump is inheriting a better relationship with China than perhaps they've had since 2019. What they do with that, well, there is an opportunity. And I know that President Xi will have been watching the election campaign very closely. He might have been listening to Donald Trump and his admiration for President Xi. And there's an opportunity there perhaps.

for President Xi to say, look, let's try to stabilise ties. Let's try this win-win cooperation that they keep talking about. But who knows how it will go, especially if there is a trade war, because I mentioned bristling. I think China will certainly bristle and will retaliate if Donald Trump does start another trade war. And that will be the key. And we'll know that day one.

Okay, Laura, I want to bring in Anthony because I wonder what you think in terms of how high China sits in Donald Trump's inbox of priorities.

Well, you know, Donald Trump has given mixed signals on China. As Laura mentioned, on one hand, he's been very critical of what he thinks is a raw deal that the United States is getting from China. In particular, he blames Joe Biden for walking back some of the things that he did during his presidential administration. He went out and actually invited President Xi to come to his inauguration, which was a break with protocol. Usually foreign leaders aren't invited to presidential inaugurations, Xi recalls.

respectfully, I understand, declined that invitation. But it does show that Donald Trump wants to try to extend an olive branch to President Xi, that he seems to feel like he has a decent relation with him. On the other hand, Donald Trump is

filling his administration is foreign policy team with China hardliners Marco Rubio the senator from Florida has been nominated to be US Secretary of State he has been sharply critical up China over the past number of years Michael waltz is a congressman from Florida he has been picked

to be Donald Trump's national security advisor. Michael Waltz was one of the first members of Congress to call for the United States to boycott the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing several years ago. He is viewed also as very much a Chinese hardliner. And there's a strain within the Republican Party, within the conservative movement that looks at China not just as a commercial, an extradition,

economic rival, but as kind of the central focus of political evil in this world. Right. You can't see this, Anthony, but Laura's been nodding vigorously throughout that answer. Anthony, Laura, thank you so much, both of you, for your time and your predictions. My pleasure. Thank you. Lovely to speak to you both. So that's the United States, Russia and China covered. Next stop, Europe. And we'll be back with the BBC's Europe editor Katja Adler very shortly.

I'm Nicola Coughlan, and for BBC Radio 4, this is History's Youngest Heroes. Rebellion, risk and the radical power of youth. She thought, right, I'll just do it. She thought about others rather than herself. 12 stories of extraordinary young people from across history. There's a real sense of urgency in them, that resistance has to be mounted, it has to be mounted now. Follow History's Youngest Heroes wherever you get your podcasts.

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This is The Global Story. We bring you one big international story in detail five days a week. Follow or subscribe wherever you listen. We've just heard about how Donald Trump might shake things up both at home in the US and abroad in 2025. So let's turn our attentions now to Europe.

Two of the continent's biggest economies, France and Germany, will enter 2025 in political turmoil. I'm joined now by Katia Adler, the BBC's Europe editor. Katia, just give us the background on what's been happening in Germany and France and what might happen next. Basically, what you're looking at in these countries is lack of stable government. So in France, there was a snap parliamentary election held in the summer called by President Emmanuel Macron.

These elections didn't go as he'd hoped. His party actually lost support in Parliament and you effectively got a hung Parliament divided between the far right, the far left, more or less, and a centrist grouping. And it just sort of stayed stuck there.

So you've got one prime minister who just about survived barely three months. Now you have another prime minister. And, you know, the general word on the streets in France is he's not going to last the winter. This is a problem. This is a problem in France. It's the second largest economy in the Eurozone currency. And it's part of the so-called motor of Europe, along with the biggest economy in the Eurozone. And that is Germany. Germany's government collapsed.

just when Donald Trump was re-elected to the White House. There was a three-party coalition that dissolved and you have snap elections called now for February. Now, you could just say this is political turmoil. We've seen a lot of this throughout Europe. So, you know, it's not as if these countries are kind of crumbling as we speak. There are no sort of mass demonstrations on the street. You have caretaker governments when actual governments collapse. So what's the big deal? Well,

It's many fold. Partly it's a very big deal because, as I say, these two countries are seen as the motor of Europe, the heart of Europe. And we live in very unstable geopolitical times. And so when you have these two, the biggest countries, very much inward looking because of their own domestic problems.

That gives a sense that the EU is rudderless. It's kind of lacking leadership when it really, really needs it. And looking on from the outside, you have countries like Russia and China who want to see the EU and Europe more widely and generally the West more divided and

fractured and weakened. And they look at Germany, they look at France, the effect it's having on the EU and on leadership inside the Defence Military Alliance, NATO. They look ahead to Donald Trump re-entering the White House in January and the divisions that might cause within the West. And they're not exactly disappointed at what they're seeing.

Also, to that point, when you're talking about the kind of influence Europe can have, especially given France and Germany, as you say, are two dominant forces in Europe. What does this all mean when it comes to Donald Trump's relationship with Europe? Well, turmoil in Europe doesn't directly affect what Donald Trump is going to think. He's no fan of the European Union. He's made that much clear. He is a fan, he says, of Europe.

He says tariffs are the most beautiful word in the dictionary as far as he's concerned. Donald Trump, as we know, doesn't believe in win-win situations where both parties in a negotiation or argument, if you like, can win. He believes there is one winner and he wants that to be him.

He wants that to be the United States. He looks at Europe in two ways, and it makes him really cross. Number one, defence spending. Donald Trump, and he's not alone amongst US presidents, by the way, who feel that Europe for far too long has kind of been freeloading off the United States, frankly, within the NATO military defence alliance, not spending enough themselves on defence and just relying on the United States to have that military muscle. On the practical point, we can see that in Ukraine, frankly,

There are 50 countries that have been donating AIDS to Ukraine, military and otherwise. When we look at the military aid, the U.S. is by far and away the biggest donor of aid. More than 50 percent is by the United States. And he says, well, guys, this is not fair. This is a war that's going on in Europe. You can't expect us to do this.

The other point that makes him very mad, if we want to use an American term there, is when it comes to trade. He does not like trade deficits. If you have a look at the EU, also the UK actually, the US is the biggest trade partner. And when it comes to the EU, there is a trade deficit. So the EU exports more to the United States than it imports from the United States. When Donald Trump was in the White House before, he was furious about that and made all sorts of threats.

and impose tariffs on certain sectors like the steel sector, for example. This time, he says he wants to impose blanket tariffs, 20% on all imports, possibly more when it comes to electronic vehicles or something like that. That has Germany's economy, which is already shaky and weak, really worried because it relies very much on its automobile industry. And so you see kind of a

panic in Europe at the moment. What can we do to show Donald Trump that he is a winner? Well, when it comes to defence, if you have a look at the new Secretary General of NATO, who is the former Dutch Prime Minister, so he knows the European position well, he's trying to already say to Donald Trump, even before he enters the White House, he went to see him in Florida at his Mar-a-Lago estate and

and said to him, well, look, because you told us to spend more on defence, we are spending more on defence. And by the way, Donald Trump, if you're thinking about America first, don't think that Ukraine is just about the continent of Europe, because behind Russia and helping Russia in Ukraine, you have China, Ukraine,

you have North Korea, you have Iran. And America does not want those countries to all feel victorious. So it's in your interest to help bolster Ukraine. When it comes to trade, what Europe is trying to say to Donald Trump is, look, we'll buy a lot more of your LNG, your liquefied natural gas. We'll be buying more military equipment from you as well as we boost our defence spending. So don't give up on us. And of course, Europe is also looking for

Trump whisperers, people who can talk to Donald Trump and be a bridge between Europe and the United States. But they definitely won't be coming from France and Germany right now. All right. So you're describing a lot of panic, but also a lot of high stakes there. Katja Adler, the BBC's Europe editor. Thank you so much for that. Thank you. Thank you.

Now let's turn our attentions to the Middle East. This year saw Israel's war in Gaza, triggered by the Hamas attacks in 2023, extend into Lebanon and also saw Israel trade direct fire with Iran. Then earlier this month, the world was caught off guard as President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in Syria, bringing new uncertainty to the region.

So let me bring in Lise Doucette, the BBC's chief international correspondent, who joins me from Damascus in Syria. Hi, Lise.

Good to speak with you, Azadeh. Good to speak with you from Damascus. Well, absolutely. And we're going to talk about Syria in a moment. But, Lise, as we're speaking on December the 19th, there are rumours of a potential deal that would see an exchange of Israeli hostages, any surviving hostages in Gaza, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and a ceasefire. Lise, from your point of view, what are the chances of that deal being agreed?

Azadeh, what they are saying today is the deal is 90% done but we have heard that for many months now. The deal is we're closer than ever. It's almost done. It's 90%. And as they always say it's the last mile which is always the most difficult because they are dealing with the most difficult of questions.

But as we are recording it is clear that despite the language, all too familiar language they are closer than ever before and that is partly because President-elect Donald Trump has given an ultimatum he wants it done that has sent a clear message both to Israel and to Hamas and also because the war has ground on. As we speak the last issue seemed to be about how many hostages are still alive can they give proof of life

What about the prisoners that the Israelis will release in exchange? Where will they go? Who will they be? And what about Israel's continuing demand that they want a presence, a military presence in the Gaza Strip? But the devil is in the details and I think we'll definitely see in 2025, that seems to be a certainty, a deal which will at long last bring

the remaining hostages home to end the agony of families and at least it brings closure to the families who desperately want to know if their loved ones are dead or alive. And it ends this unprecedented suffering for the Palestinians of Gaza and the wider, wider anxiety across the region as well as the insecurity caused by this war of all wars. Well, so you've said a deal seems certain.

2024, we've seen Israel's war in Gaza, of course, but we've also seen the front with Lebanon and we've seen Israel exchange direct fire with Iran. And we've also now recently seen their own attacks in Syria. Lise, from your point of view, do you think that militarily this is sustainable in 2025?

Well Israel has made it absolutely clear that it will act in its own self-interest whether that means it was in 2024 the ground invasion the attacks right in the heart of Beirut it means attacking the Houthis of Yemen wherever they're attacking Israeli targets from

It means coming into Syria even as Syria is celebrating the end of a half century and more of the Assad's family repressive rule. A very sensitive time as well. Israel has carried out hundreds of missile strikes and has encroached on Syrian territory and occupied the buffer zone despite calls from the United Nations and other countries to pull back.

2024 was a year in which every red line was crossed and Israel has made its own red line that it is not going to allow any threats on its sovereignty. And so I think that will continue and it has made it clear that it will continue attacking in Lebanon if it feels that its interests are threatened again. This is a very emboldened Israel and a very assertive, aggressive Israel putting Israel first.

So you use the word emboldened. One of the most important allies, if not the most important ally to Israel is the United States. And of course, we'll see Donald Trump reenter the White House in 2025. Do you think that that would embolden Benjamin Netanyahu or hold him back?

Israeli cabinet, the prime minister, are delighted by this election result. Although they know that support for Israel is rock solid and bipartisan, that in the United States policy towards Israel is not foreign policy, it's domestic policy.

But it's undeniable that President Trump's first term brought Israel some of its longstanding demands, moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli control over the Golan Heights, pushing for what were called the Abraham Accords, which brought a number of Arab states to normalize relations with Israel. All of that will continue. And what is even better in Israel's eyes, in the eyes of

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his far right wing cabinet is that the new team thinks the same way as Israelis do in that far right wing. The nominee to be the American ambassador to Israel doesn't recognize the West Bank as the West Bank. He calls it the biblical name Judea and Samaria. He's a big supporter of settlement building. So this is going to be an administration which

Prime Minister Netanyahu knows that President Trump can also be unpredictable. So it's not necessarily going to be

a clear path or a path without problems, but he has a team in place now that will make it very much easier for Israel to achieve what at least the Israeli government in power now headed by Prime Minister Netanyahu with the far right wing ministers involved in it to pursue the continuation of settlement building in the West Bank. There's talk now as 2024 ends of

a settlement building that's already been approved on the occupied Golan Heights, even been incursions into Lebanon by settlers who want to settle there and talk of settling in the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Netanyahu said settling in the Gaza Strip is not on the agenda, but 2025 is shaping up in Israel's eyes to be a very good year for those in power in Israel now.

And a moment that took the world somewhat by surprise was the fall of the Assad dynasty. There you are in Syria. How do you envision that situation unfolding? What are the stakes for Syria in 2025?

Even as Syrians, it's quite extraordinary. They're still celebrating as we speak. It's more than a week on, and yet the happiness is still palpable. And they are watching with every day, every step, every word,

of their new caretaker administration. It's still not clear where the de facto ruler who now calls himself, not by his nom de guerre, his name of war, Abu Mohammed al-Jilani, he calls himself Ahmad Sharra, he's in civilian clothing, not military fatigues. He talks about recognizing the diversity of Syria, the need to protect minorities.

But as this year ends, he has a caretaker administration which is only comprised of members of his Islamic group, the Hayatari Al-Sham.

And he has not moved to broaden it. And so not only will the Syrians be watching closely, neighbours will be watching closely. Countries like the United States, which will have to play a major role if the terrorist designation is to be lifted from Ahmed al-Shara himself and from Haithali al-Sham. They want that. That is the main demand for sanctions to be lifted. This is a country that needs everything. And they can't have everything unless what is regarded as

the most complicated and extensive network of sanctions anywhere in the world, until that starts to be disentangled, Syrians will not see the prosperity, even the basic food needs. The huge economic crisis here with 90% of Syrians under the poverty line. So there's a lot of questions as the year ends and a lot of uncertainty, even though

Syrians can't allow themselves to think. Millions of Syrians here, millions of Syrians who are now refugees abroad, they can't allow themselves to think this is not going to work out. They have suffered too much and waited too long and it's been too, too much pain for them not to think it will be better.

And finally, Lise, there are other countries who've exerted their own form of influence this year. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar have been key mediators during the conflict in the Middle East. Why? What is in it for them? And do you think they'll continue that role in 2025?

Qatar certainly sees itself as a mediating power. That's why it plays on both sides, has very close relationships with the United States as a major military base on its territory. It also has given refuge over many years to Taliban before they came to power, Hamas before there were the

the tensions of late. It's now promised to set up an embassy here in Damascus. It will continue this role. Egypt has had a long, long role when it comes to Gaza. It borders Gaza, so it's in Egypt's interest. It doesn't want Islamic militancy and extremism to cross into the Sinai, where Egypt is already battling its own ghost. And also, Egypt also wants to be on the good side of the United States because it means the pressure is lifted on Egypt

when it comes to its own human rights violations. So everyone wants to get along with the United States, even as they try to establish their own interests in the region. So it's going to be a very, very difficult diplomatic dance across the region. Right. Events in the Middle East can change week to week, so surely 2025 will have a lot in store. Lise Doucette, thank you so much for your time and your analysis. Thank you, Azadeh. Happy New Year.

Let's now look at Africa. 2024 saw the ANC lose overall control in South Africa after 30 years in power. We also saw a horrific humanitarian crisis fuelled by civil war continue to unfold in Sudan. With me to talk about that and lots more is Alan Kasudja, presenter of the BBC's Africa Daily podcast.

Hi, Alan. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Let's start with South Africa. We mentioned the ANC there. And we also saw in May a government of national unity formed in South Africa. So how do you think that that is holding up? And what do you see in store for the government in 2025?

So let's just go back to the May elections. We all expected, a lot of people watching South Africa knew that the ANC was struggling. They were struggling on many fronts. They'd lost a lot of key seats. And people were expecting that they'd struggle to make it past the required minimum in order to form the government. What we didn't expect, though...

was a 40% result, 40% of the election result. And that was a bit of a shocker for a lot of people. So the ANC's hand was obviously forced and it had to get into bed, if you will, with a party that had been

going up against it for most of the last 30 years, and that is the Democratic Alliance. How are they doing so far? A lot of people who I have spoken to from South Africa are pleasantly surprised that it's a successful union of sorts. It's working at the moment, tithing problems, challenges with policy, especially in areas like education. Should Afrikaans continue to be a language of instruction? The DA thinks it should. The ANC is opposed to that.

But on many things that the DA would have normally been on the other side, it's aligned itself with ANC. So they seem to be collaborating effectively in many respects. And people are surprised. It might be down to the fact that they're both centrist parties. The ANC might be seen to be a centrist left party and the DA...

And Sudan often gets talked about as a forgotten wall, but it's impossible to talk about the continent without talking about the humanitarian crisis that continues to unfold there.

There have been talks of potential breakthroughs or peace talks in other major conflicts in the world. But do you see anything happening in Sudan that could break that cycle? It's horrible what's going on in Sudan. There's no other way of describing it. We've just had that 11 million people have been displaced. A lot of the refugees have found themselves in Egypt.

A lot of them are internally displaced. Many of them have ended up in Uganda, where I come from. There are certain neighborhoods of Kampala where you just find Sudanese people settled there. A lot of them have gone into Kenya as well. It's a crisis. It's a problem that has displaced a lot of Sudanese people. And there were talks in August. People didn't show up for those talks. The contradictions continue, and we expect that these contradictions will continue way into next year. Some analysts think that the next year is going to be even more difficult for

So, it's a tough place for Sudan. The humanitarian crisis will continue. There's been a bit of opening up at the moment with trucks allowed to deliver food in certain places. Airports are back in some parts of the country, the northern part of the country. The airport is open and it's allowing the flow of humanitarian support. But, by and large,

Until the war stops, it's going to continue producing a lot of problems for that country. Now, Africa is the world's youngest continent, and we've seen a number of protests in Kenya, Nigeria in 2024, mainly from millennials and Gen Z voters.

And they're frustrated, it seems, by the lack of opportunities. That's what they're saying. So do you see that as something that can be resolved in 2025? Or do you see that frustration continuing? It depends. It depends. Nobody expected that the Kenyan problem would continue until now. It started with the introduction of a finance bill by the government.

A lot of young people took exception. They felt like the President William Ruto government was overtaxing people already. And people are struggling. There is generally a real problem with the cost of living around the world, not just in Africa, but everywhere, even here in the UK. These countries have been struggling. Now, when you find...

that young people are the majority, they have no jobs, and the ruling class, the political class is showing very high levels of ostentation without regard for the plight of the majority. It's always bound to cause problems. And so that's where the protests began. Young people from every social placing, every sector of Kenya's society came together and they united around this idea that their future was being robbed.

from them, and they needed to do something about it. And so that happened in Nigeria as well. And it will continue to happen across the continent, unless governments demonstrate some level of responsiveness to the plight of young people. You know, you had ministers showing off their expensive belts and watches in Kenya on television. And these young people are like, hold on a second, why are you wearing a $50,000 watch when I can barely afford food?

And so when I attended the demonstrations at the Kenyan High Commission, which is not too far from where we are sitting right now in London, it was interesting to see young people from wealthy families coming together with people from families that are less well-to-do and just protesting and saying, now, if we don't stand up against the government now, the problems that we'll inherit will be much bigger than what we see at the moment. Now,

Ending on some somewhat good news. When it comes to sub-Sahara Africa, it's one of the areas that's the most affected by HIV and AIDS in the region. But we've heard some promising results when it comes to a new drug, when it comes to the prevention of transmission of AIDS and also treating HIV. What would that mean for the region if it comes to fruition? It's going to be a game changer.

I have been affected by HIV because I know family members who have died from it. Every single person that I know in Uganda where I come from has been impacted. Everybody I know knows someone who has died from HIV. And so for us, this is a deeply personal thing. I come from a time when people thought that HIV was a death sentence.

One of the only people I've ever met called Alan Kasuja was a little child who I held in my arms, maybe four months old. And at a time when there was no solution for HIV and this child had picked up AIDS from the mother, it was obvious that they didn't have much time left.

So for us, this is an existential thing. It's important that we get a solution to the HIV/AIDS situation. So when you hear that there's a drug that is going to be taken twice a year as opposed to tablets being taken daily, that is a game changer. The tablets have brought us a long way in the sense that people can now live their lives fully and knowing that there's medicine for them.

coming from a time when there was nothing. But then there's obviously the problem of compliance. You know, will you take your medicine every day when you're required to take it? And so that has been a problem. When medicine is missed, it causes all sorts of complications. But when you have a solution that comes in form of an injection to be taken twice a year,

That's brilliant. And we hope that it's affordable. It's still quite expensive at the moment. I think it's 40,000 per person per year. $40,000 is way beyond what many Africans can afford. But we are hoping that the call by the United Nations, especially UNAIDS, for the generics to be made available.

available is going to help make the medicine more accessible. Right. And so people are going to be paying very close attention to what happens with that drug, linacapavir. Did you notice I was avoiding the name linacapavir because of... I know. I had to double check the pronunciation, but... It's a tough name. It's a tough name, but it's an important one to get right, clearly. Absolutely. Alan, thank you so much for your time. Thank you.

Now, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that's the climate science body, has said that before 2025, greenhouse gas emissions must peak to give the world a chance of keeping global temperature rises within the 1.5 to 2 degree limits that were specified in the Paris Agreement. That was back in 2015. So the BBC's climate editor, Justin Rolat, joins me in the studio here in London.

Hiya. So the key question here, are we on target to meet that goal? No, because it's almost the end of 2024 and we have not reached peak emissions. That said, the International Energy Agency, which is a kind of global watchdog on energy, an expert body, say there is a chance...

that we will peak in 2025. So we're a year off. And to be honest, in climate change, we almost always miss our target. So coming within a year is actually not that bad. And I think we should also see the fact of peaking emissions. It's a civilizational moment. Our entire economy has been based on fossil fuels.

The emissions trajectory has been up relentlessly, literally since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. If we peak and begin to reduce emissions, that is an amazing achievement of society. So a bit of hope there. How does China fit into this? How important are they when it comes to reaching a lot of these targets? Because they are also responsible for a lot of green energy as well. China's got a huge industry producing the equipment for green energy. It's also got by far the largest installed capacity industry.

of wind and solar, it produces more batteries than anyone else, more electric cars. It really is the world leader on green energy, but it is still a huge producer of emissions, the biggest producer in the world. Passed America back in about 2006. It's about 35%, so a third of all world emissions come from China. China's still building coal plants. So the question is, will that huge investment in renewable energy begin to bend the curve downwards?

And again, it looks quite likely. I mean, there's an online publication called Carbon Brief. It's dug in, analysed the statistics. It believes this could be the year. China's government isn't boasting about this, but this could be the year that China also begins to peak. And that would be very consequential for the world economy because of that huge investment in renewables. We could see not a

super rapid, but we could see quite a rapid decline in China's emissions. And that would obviously, because it's the biggest emitter in the world by a huge margin, would have consequences for global emissions. So really good news if that happens. Well, speaking of consequential, Donald Trump returns for his second term in office in the White House, and he hasn't exactly been the biggest emitter.

advocate when it comes to green energy. So what could his return mean for the fight against climate change in the short term at least? Well, in the short term, he said that he's quite sceptical on a number of occasions about climate change. He's also said that he likes green energy on other occasions. It's not entirely clear where he stands, but he has been pretty clear he's going to roll back

a lot of the Biden administration's policies. There's a huge policy called the Inflation Reduction Act to invest in green technology. A lot of that money has already been spent, but he says he's going to roll back on that. He says he's going to drill, baby, drill. He's going to really emphasise the production of oil and gas. America's already the biggest producer of oil and gas in the world. And again, you know, like there's questions about how much he can achieve there because the oil and gas industry will only want to produce oil and gas if they think it's profitable.

So it may be that whatever he does, they'll say, well, actually, you know, we think where the market's saturated and we're not going to produce any more at the moment. So it's not entirely clear how much change he'll make. He's also, you know, he's a businessman. He's got Elon Musk as one of his lead advisors now. Elon Musk, obviously heavily invested in renewable technology through Tesla. He's also got solar businesses. One imagines that he'd be saying to Donald Trump, listen, you know, green techs are

An interesting new market, certainly made many, many billions for Elon Musk. And Trump, as a businessman, would probably say, look, this is something America should be involved with. So it's not entirely clear where he stands, but definitely the trajectory for America won't be as clearly towards the kind of green transition as Biden talked about doing. Right.

And 2025, a lot of big climate change related events. Let me tick them off for you here, Justin. You've got the UN Initiative Climate Promise, the Global Climate Summit being held in Oxford in the UK and COP30 in Brazil. Of course, you know all of this. But is there any sense that these events will bring about any meaningful change?

This is a really important year for the UN, the Intergovernmental Process on Climate Change. So this year, under the Paris Agreement, every five years countries agreed that they'd come back and set their own targets for carbon emissions. This is the deadline year, so by February all the countries of the world need to produce their nationally determined commitments. Those are the commitments they make to cutting carbon. That's really important because that will determine the trajectory of those countries, will help determine...

the trajectory of those countries for the next five, ten years. So, you know, hopefully we'll get a sense of how ambitious countries are being. That happens in February. They're to be delivered to that big UN conference, the COP conference, COP30, which will happen in Belém in Brazil in November and they deliver them there and hopefully, you know, we'll see the world rallying around and making ambitious

carbon cuts, whole economy carbon cuts. So these are more ambitious targets than they've done before. So yeah, it's a really consequential year for climate change. It follows disappointment in Baku in Azerbaijan. People said that 300 billion sounds like a huge amount of money, doesn't it?

But they said that wasn't as generous as developing countries would have hoped. And it's true that when you kind of add in inflation, it doesn't look as generous as perhaps it seems, given that the world is already committed to 100 billion a year. So, you know, disappointment there. That money was supposed to be invested in developing countries to give them more space to kind of reduce emissions, make it easier for them to reduce emissions. Will the NDCs, their commitments to cutting carbon, be less ambitious as a result? One would imagine the answer to that is yes.

in which case, yeah, we might have a disappointing round of emissions commitments. But, you know, I mean, the people who've come forward, the countries that have come forward so far, they're quite ambitious. The UK has come forward. America published it a couple of days ago. And these have been quite ambitious. So hopefully that'll set a trend for the rest of the world. Justin Rowlatt, our climate editor, thank you so much for your predictions. My pleasure.

And that's all we have time for in our Correspondence Look Ahead to 2025. A big thanks to all our correspondents who've joined me over the last hour.

And thanks so much to you for listening. And I wish you a happy and healthy 2025. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at theglobalstory at bbc.com or you can send us a message or even a voice note on WhatsApp. Our number is plus 44 330 123 9480. You can find those details in our show notes. Wherever you're listening in the world, this has been The Global Story. Thanks for having us in your headphones. Bye for now.

Yoga is more than just exercise. It's the spiritual practice that millions swear by.

And in 2017, Miranda, a university tutor from London, joins a yoga school that promises profound transformation. It felt a really safe and welcoming space. After the yoga classes, I felt amazing. But soon, that calm, welcoming atmosphere leads to something far darker, a journey that leads to allegations of grooming, trafficking and exploitation across international borders. ♪

I don't have my passport, I don't have my phone, I don't have my bank cards, I have nothing. The passport being taken, the being in a house and not feeling like they can leave.

You just get sucked in so gradually.

And it's done so skillfully that you don't realize. And it's like this, the secret that's there. I wanted to believe that, you know, that...

Whatever they were doing, even if it seemed gross to me, was for some spiritual reason that I couldn't yet understand. Revealing the hidden secrets of a global yoga network. I feel that I have no other choice. The only thing I can do is to speak about this and to put my reputation and everything else on the line. I want truth and justice.

And for other people to not be hurt, for things to be different in the future. To bring it into the light and almost alchemise some of that evil stuff that went on and take back the power. World of Secrets, Season 6, The Bad Guru. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.