$100k Before Trump’s Inauguration? | Crypto Town Hall
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right? How are you?

Good, good.

We surprised by you have been kind of them in a coma since the the election that I just collapsed and I couldn't function for today sleeping pad in a screwed. So I haven't really been keeping up other just reading the news, so will probably do a recap for the audience of the of the scripts in extreme. Well, just talk about the markets in general what to expect and do a recap.

Over the last couple of days, I saw etf inflows and massive. But before that, just on a political from political perspective. And brian, your thoughts at the results was a surprise you as well. The the margin uh trump's favorite.

So his win wasn't as surprised because I always saw close. Um but I I do think like the margin in the fact that he went a popular though that that's .

very surprising me and the house and the senate .

yeah he's gonna be able to do quite a lot of is what he wants to do in first.

Are you right? Another question, are you as a critical of trump now as you were a few years ago, as you perspective changed a bit because i've seen a lot of people that we're very critical of them. They kind of seeing they are a bit more optimistic and they seeing a different side of him.

So i'm critical of him as a person. I think that I agree with his policies regarding bitcoin. Uh, I think that we definitely to cut our cut our deficits of how we're going to do. That's going to be interesting.

I I think that having much in that position, I I think could be a positive is, is just that there's going to you know like for every reaction is an equal of reaction and how that's going to impact other people, you know IT is really is yet to be seen. Uh, I I think that there's a lot of his policies I disagree with. Uh, I will continue to push back on them. the。

Yeah, agree either way is you're working. Can you hear me? Yeah, you get how perfect. cool. Well, let's into cyp to dave.

Can you give us a quick of you as many more of selfish perspective as more people join the last two days, what we've seen immediately after trump? So when remember me, you and Scott were talking about where there's been Priced in? I was surprised when Scott said I was Priced because IT didn't make sense.

How can pricing something that no one knew was gonna en? You know, on Polly market trumps up by at one stage two days before the election to two, three days was lesson ten point, then picked up again to about twenty points, but still was a toss up, according to mose polls. But that was a surprise when Scott said IT may be Priced or ready. So your fault in the markets reaction is not getting ahead of itself? Or is that the beginning of a pretty spectacular able run?

I mean.

I hate when you ask questions that can be answered yes or no. Uh, so as a about Priced in, first of all, obviously IT wasn't uh, you don't have to be a rocket scientist.

You you remember on what was on monday, I said if trump wins the election that you will see a rally and the rally will be predominantly it'll be more of a rally in high quality all then I will be ambiguous in, well, you know, seven days, a syrian s of fifteen percent verses the point of eight, uh, sona up almost twenty percent. So, okay, check that one. Ah, that was always seen, not Priced in.

The most important observation I would make for you, marry with this, however, often when there is news, that is, when news is Priced in in any shape, perform the pattern you see is by the room or cells we've seen here is by the rumor. Hold the news. Buy a little bit more as the rumors get, get, get clear, hold the the news.

And as IT gets there, you know you start taking a grinding higher. We're now this rally looks so much Better technically than a rally that is the approval of the the, the etf and waiting, you know, that sort of thing. This is not a one off.

This is A C change in what's going to happen. And so patients is required. Remember something, acid allocators take time to make a allocation decisions. You're seeing what you're seen over the last three days is the beginnings of acid allocation.

I know that this sounds crazy given the amount of money that's gone into bitcoin, but the truth is that you've seen that, I mean, it's going still below eighty thousand. There is no way in hell that anybody is that allocating anything on the basis of the lemons bill because no one really believes is going to pass at best. They're hoping that, that means they won't sell the silk road coins and they won't trick be a signal to the world.

There's a very material change. There will be a state of the world and that's not Priced in bitcoin far as a thereon theory um make sense because you know multiple major financial players are have announced they are going to be using IT for things that will now be legal. You do not forget, people should remember the most important thing about what what trump is said, what S C.

Commission ers said, what all the republicans are said with the fifty twenty one bill said, which, by the way, now they are going to get greedy and they are going to go back and rebuild that. They include d five. But the most important thing of that was the safe harbor I E.

No regulation by enforcement and a path of regulation. John redd stark said, IT, well, on your show, you know, the cases are going a good ground to screeching halt in january. So now the question is, what does that mean for innovators, for entrepreneurs that can actually use crypto to? And the answer is a quite a bit I personally have quite a lot investing in this.

This will be talking about over the coming weeks, but i'm not surprised at all by a rally. Actually, if anything, you're not what you're not seeing is arguably more important, right? We've not seen major short liquidations, right? You look at the short there was one graph, there was one big major short liquidation day, which was which felt huge given how little we've seen since you know whatever but historical isn't.

We had four and twenty six million and short liquidations on the day of the election and twenty four our period we've had days in the past of ralles with billion dollar ones. And since then, it's more or less back to trend. So you're not seeing a lot.

You're seeing the funding rates are, yes, they're a bit higher, but i'm checking out but nothing to speak up. I mean, you're not seeing big funny way. You're not seeing people loading up on formal because every time people have load up on formal theyve got ten their heads, the ended to them.

And and what you're seeing is the trend. You know, this morning we get dom below seventy six thousand and the U. S. Market opens, etf flows started in and all of a sudden bomb back back over seventy six thousand.

So if we're building a believe in or not, this feels more like bathing for a rally than a rally least in bitcoin, and we'll see I think the creams is going to rise for the top. I'm sure, mike, I are going to have a fun conversation about this on monday as well. But I think the beef is being shown to, to quote phrase.

mike is in the audience. Like i've saying, if you want to come up as well, i'm not sure if you're on the stage, I can't see .

you color love to get your thoughts morning. Look, following along with what they have said, I would encourage everyone to check out, uh, john starks most recent space he did yesterday where he essentially acknowledged and I have to give him credit for that, you know, we've had him he's been on many panels and we know his position on crypto, but he acknowledged that the war on crypto to is over and that the S. C.

C. Has essentially been gutted. And if you want to understand the dynamics of how this is gonna, I would encourage you to listen to the first thirty minutes of that space because he he probably knows the into working of the S.

C. C. Better than anybody in this space. And he kind of breaks down how the sausage is made and what it's going to look like between now.

And ah can you break IT down for us? What do we expect? How fast will you get rid of gangs iller? How fast will policy change? To what extent will they still be resistance within nec? Is that really going to be that drastic of a shift from being completely antigay pto, completely making the U. S. The capital of cyp to the worlds capital of cypher?

yes. Um I think and I have to agree with john, that going forward, there's going to be absolutely no incentive for the S C C. To bring any further enforcement actions in the critter sector. Uh he clarifies that IT IT is vie and never been tested whether trunk can actually force ganges ler to resign because he has a term and he he can theoretically serve out the the remainder of this term.

However, john very clearly, you know, lays IT out that that's probably not gonna happen because trump could appoint an interview which could then completely evita ginseng as power to run the agenda at the sec. And that intern would probably be one of the two republicans who sit on the S. C.

C. commission. And more than likely what's going to happen is, is that games onna resign because is between the fact that the the, the, the, the republicans now control probably both houses of congress and the White house effective january on inauguration day. He's really gonna have no Mandate at this point.

And what the other thing is interesting about IT and and why I encourage people listen to IT is because he sort of breaks down the fact that the esc chair has never been this visible of the figure and this this controversial of the figure. And he has never, in his experience, which goes decades, serving under several S. C.

C. Chairs, he has never seen this much dissent between the commission members with respect to how they are approaching digital assets, has never seen dissenting opinions like this come out. And and clearly this strategy by ginza er has completely backfired. And I anticipate my humble belief, I think we will probably see.

And I know this is probably very, very you know, I think this is probably a little bit hyperbolic, but I think we're onna probably see them dismiss the spending suits against coin base ripple and crack in in seta because there's just no momentum for me this anymore. They failed and and for john, start to acknowledge the war on crypto o is over is a pretty important thing for him. I don't think his views on crypto to have changed, but he acknowledges that the voters had spoken.

He was impressed with the fund raising efforts in the cyp to sector and how they were able to change, narrated and flip critical seats. And trump is behind crapo. There's nothing more to debate anymore here. I couldn't be more bullish on the sector .

yeah at all. carla. You know we are on the same page. I just want to clarify a couple of things having done with the sec and but in that building so many times over the years, first gary's term is as A S C C. commissioner.

Er he could say if he wants but he will on january twenty first, not be the commission, not be the chair uh but if he does, then by law then cranch's gone because they have to be, you know, by law there there are two democrats to republicans at all times. And and the chair serves at, is appointed by the president and generally is either independent of the president's party. Now it's important for people to understand jay clain was an independent and mary shapiro, who preceded him, was an independent.

So we've often had independence. We've also often had partisans. I think considering where we are, I think it's highly likely that we will get a republican as opposed to an independent a under trump.

But he has not said bo about IT. My guess is that highly likely if you get an independent IT will be someone who is pro digital asset, pro innovation, pro which therefore transit procyta. So that's the actual thing.

So gerry can be forced out as a commissioner, that's true, but he absolutely can be forced out as chair. He's gone on day one of of of of of the trump administration after he swing in. And he knows that. So the question that is his political calculus. He Better off serving his term and waiting IT out until there is a chance of the democratic senate.

So does that mean the S, C, C will be dropping? And kind of illegal question here, the S, C, be dropping all .

the existing, because I was my third point.

Yeah, got to my .

second point, which is very important, is something that on this show, john, I had a really good interchange. He was in july. I remember IT because I complimented john on something and he had to admit was right, which is when he was directly enforcement in the c.

Pretty much every case was based upon provable harm to investors are fraud. And that matters. That is exactly where it's going to go back to. There will be cases in the crypto world, a hundred percent. They're gona go after Fosters.

They're going to go after people who either are accused of manipulating the markets, and they're going to go after people who are coming fraught and investor harm. So if you're planning if people think that this is going to be a free for all, no, IT will not. But what IT will mean is the entire enforcement divisions, available manpower will be able to go after fraud as opposed cue technical violations that are after jurisdiction.

So what does that mean for the existing cases? IT means rip. We will get settled on the you will that settlement will go through because if you remember, the basis of the settlement was discouragement and personal and profits made based on bad disclosures, and that's highly likely to go to you.

I don't think that brad is is going to want to fight that, but I think everything else, the appeal that the ecc just found will i'm almost certainly be dismissed. I'd be stunned if coin base and cracking where there's no allegations of harm uh same with open sea and and IT were all of them you know made a sketch a those are going to go go bye bye because there has been no allegation of investor harm. And so that's where caro and I agree, and that's a small new ones.

But it's kind of an important one for people in the space because actually, if what have what happens is what I think is that means there will be more enforcement efforts against potential fraud, right? And that that's kind of which which is definitely good for investors. Now at the same time, what what hester basically promoted ted and mark IT is is behind and the sedat trying although they're onna got the fit act and we do IT uh was a safe harbor for firms that that are deemed to be security, digital security of some sort, giving them time ah to help them craft new laws that will actually work.

Meaning if you want to be a broken dealer in the crypto space is going to the open season. And you can hear a lot more for me about that is as the week's role on. But IT is there was a lot of potential businesses.

I mean, people made forgot to made the tweet. I think IT was they may be an eric, uh, Turner from a sorry thing. Meet new york is can be open for business if you need help relocating here yottle, I know, I don't know personally.

I like no taxes, uh, no, no state income taxes in miami. Uh, I will see. But you know all the promise that was existing four years ago, you're going to start to see a land grab in united states.

All of this is long term on the cyp dal markets. None of IT affects, you know, day one. And so day one, you're seeing people you fork that U.

S. People might be able to investigate and that will happen. But it's gonna. There's going be a lot of new.

So I am a cola. I want to go to you and then I see mike here. And by the way, there's also an interesting tweet from Dennis port.

I want to digging into a bit later shuffle guys saw IT he he treated, let me open IT up whether that there IT is braking. I can confirm that in twenty twenty five, multiple states will have strategic bitcoin reserves reserve legislation introduced. Just came up from the supporter earlier today, but i'd love you or comments on on what they've just said.

And then I don't want this to become a kind of an echo chAmber of optimism. I want to get a different perspective, mike, if you do have a different perspective of if you've changed your mind on the outlook. But let me go to color first and then we're go to you.

mike. Yeah, I love what dave said, and I have a question for day and and and kind of a general thought if if this is the direction it's going in and if if we have a complete sea change in how these assets are being looked at, would IT be the cftc that is going to be more involved in the investigation of fraud because the s Mandate is to investigate fraud when IT comes to securities.

But if we're gonna finally get beyond this nonsense about the how we test and the desensitized nature and all of this that has been bantered about, and if you're going to finally get clarification that the vast majority these tokens are not security but are instead commodities, is that going to change the enforcement agenda for the S. C C? Yes, I agree.

Theyll have more resources now to actually go after fraud when IT comes security. But are they going to still be? Are they gonna regard the vast majority of tokens as being security? I think that's a big on answer question, which again has huge consequences for their for their Mandate and for the sector. What do you think that?

Because i'm curious on that. Well, I mean, I in october, I had conversations with both republican commissioners of the cftc and conversations around the S. C.

C. I think that there is a belief among the republicans that there is a need to work together to the liniment. But understand when you invest, when the S.

C, C investigates fraud, like ponzi schemes, a ponzi scheme, could I could have to do with just about anything IT doesn't matter if the underlying was a security, is still an investor that becomes an investment contract. So people who are raising money, by definition, raising money from investors for something they can, they can go after that. But I do think that what you're going to see is more coordination just between the two.

They don't neither one has infinite resources. I think that, that will be interesting. The cftc and sec division on on how to oversee markets for market manipulation. That's a much more interesting question.

I think at this point, IT feels like it's gonna mostly cftc, but we don't know until the first hundred days comes and goes and the team that trump promised um which you know I have obviously very strong thoughts, defines what's a security and what's a commodity. And you know the safety sees Mandate is very clear on commodities ivax at less clear on commodity spot. And you know, we'll see how all this goes.

But instead of IT being adversarial, I think it's going to be much more CoOperative. Uh, IT just IT just makes sense for you to be that weight and common sense, I think going to be the halma. K, I mean, you know you could believe them or not, but I think that that's kind of been the montreal on the transition team members that i've talked to.

So I do think that there will be both. So the real question is where the cftc um how will they be visible foreign derivative exchanges that are do not have their fcm and other sort of structures or to be carbs for us people to be able to invest you know abroad or on defi exchanges of seta, that could start getting much more to say. That is not clear at all.

And the reason is not clear at all, to be blunt, because of lobbying, right? You know there is a lot of money being made by by the U. S.

Uh, financial markets in the divider space. And so there is going to be that's going to be IT. That's a story for another day. But I think one hundred percent, you're going to see more CoOperation between the two. And they're not they're going to do what they're best to avoid letting bad actors kind of escape because neither one believes that the other is going after. And I think that that's going to coordinate designers.

yes. And let me go to my mike. Know you, David, going to debate this on monday, but we can press this today. Where do you stand on the latest developments and the markets reaction to trump swing?

Well, no debate with dave and this one hats off today. They've nailed this um and he completely gets to credit ford and it's about movie forward now and to me, this is a major paradigm shift in a global stage reelection of mr. Trump is president.

It's a completely shift um I can dig into what that means for commodities but for hyped as I keep completely agree with what day is set in for the technology the overwhelming technology of this and you know not finally you know people like trump that pushing back on what's great for the U S. Dollar and toga ization and everything. It's probably quick for good for the all, although they have been another performing erie.

But the main problem I have with bitcoin, as I be and putting on the finishing touches on a note I have tomorrow, is sometimes bitcoin trades more like digital goal and sometimes IT trades more like leverage data. And right now, it's clearly trading more like leverage data. Meaning, and David, i've discussed before that I think it's been a great thing for portfolio and say, if you have one hundred units in a portfolio, chunk in one big coin in there, you can eliminate a decent portion at portfolio and still have paid on the upside with less star exposure.

But that's the problem. Now stock market made new highs. Bitcoins made new highs. And i'll keeps saying the same thing. I think bitcoins fine as long as stock market it's going up.

But the problem is, if you look at the last time, now we have a complete consensus in the human nature, have be careful of what's going to happen now compared the last time president trump got elected. Now we ve got a complete boost consensus for the equity market in bitcoin. Yes, I get IT, but the markets are so stretch.

One good examples and putting this out now is when president trump was elected, the last time at the consensus was barish in the stock mark was basically hovering nine, one, two, five hundred and two hundred and week move and ever just great. Now it's a twenty six percent premium. That's just a relative thing IT.

We'll go back there IT. At some point we'll get some kind of trigger. I don't know what it'll be, but um that's the problem.

And the same time, the key thing i've been watching overall, everything all the time, still watching, worried about is a bit point to goal ration. Sure, finally catching up. But no, finally, we added that definitive election. Good reason takes some profits and gold, but that's where i'm still quite concerned about things like that.

So i'm um you again, hats off today with the problem again, I point out is which point as a risk asset is I think most managers get IT know the sixty accordions the highest ever on the way up with. Beta bait is going up to bitcoins going up. And and to me, it's the next big trade is when we have a bit of a backup, we flush out some of these aggressive laws and all risk as its.

And that's a good opportunity to questions how and when that happened. So i'll take over the key thing. I been in different somewhat between what's happening ing with big queen record eyes and same thing with copper. And he has a very high correlation to stock market in in slagging um still quick bosh goal, still barred things like crude oil. But again and again we have you.

Can you give a say IT might just also you said earlier, you you can comment a lot on the commodities. What that means for commodities is trump swing. Can you expand on that a bit more being very briefly because .

this is a ecliptic show. Yeah so it's his focuses basically been drilled at will. And the thing is what's piece and and just the uncertainty of a trump and administration potential for more greater geopolitical tension um will fit into an endurin trend in commodities.

Is gold going up, crucial going up? And that would been happy to key crisis. What stops? I think this trump is real election just excelled. The key point is if we we are seeing a global recessionary contraction, deflation and kicking on a global basis, if you look at comedy, go up, most comedies down, most most cruel.

And what is a real election is doing this with the pars was really pressured most noted the most largest um importer uh exporter of good C U, S, china press in heart, it's bad for the globe economy. You see that every day that we have to depend more seamless from china, more cuts through back to keep things just stable, which is bad. So to me, the child I see is the tip towards global um deflation and that will probably be on the back of cop.

Copper has to go up and it's not. And then you have bitcoin in goal in the middle. Let's where I look at bitcoin is the leading risk.

Acid is making record highs. It's great. But it's been like in gold from a three years now and gold has been outperformed there to be five hundred from most three years now.

That's not good. And that's why I look at bitcoins, a great lead in indicator. It's popped up in needs and makes sense that should have.

But remember, remember what's happening here. People are jumping on the last big trade, and we all learned the lesson from that. We know that lesson in life.

And that is, stock market is so expensive when we have a little bit of Normal back control. Quite important to be the way then. This is only a few days since we have at this paradigm of a reelection of daemon.

Yeah, I do you want to digging to the etf and flow as well? You respond quickly. Do you have I think he joked out where is andrey Andreas y to get digger to the record inflows that we saw yesterday in day before. But you go had David .

respond to really nore someone is ah i'm going to ignore everything he talked about with oil geologist all that i'll say that for monday I say long conversation. But the quick comment is bitcoin being made levels beta the word beta for those who do not mean IT means correlation to you, is the magi ude of its correlation to other assets. Uh, I think bitcoin biggest beta is to its own adoption and that matters.

And I know i'm ceiling Simonon thunder. I can see one hundred percent. I kind of want a Simon to say IT, but because I like to listen other people who agree with me at times.

But that to me is a big difference. And that is the major sea change here. Uh, in terms everything mike said, oil no doubt is going to be under pressure for a lot of reasons, will talk about that in detail on monday.

Uh, the fact is I think the trade and I know trump l want to hear IT, but I think the trade right now is probably uh, long bitcoin, uh, against a basket of equity that report that are the most stretch in terms of valuation as mike was putting in because I think that that at a certain point, stocks are tethered to their valuation and bitcoin is tether to what what is IT actually backing. And we all know that there are fifteen times upside on bitcoin to become digital gold. So it's not really tethered to anything. So that kind of the point the metal point, and i'm going to let everybody all stop now.

Yeah, Andrew, I only take into more exciting. You have got a record inflation yesterday. again.

Always appreciative of someone forbid was being on stage with a suspicion on days like today. We would love to get your analysis on the discussion so far. The marketing general, of course, the info that we yesterday.

Yes, thanks for the input by very happy to be here. And I just want to quickly have have a comment on mike thoughts about gold, right? And big one is digital goal.

I mean, obviously, big coin is not yet digital gold and not yet a kind of safe havens or value. But what we've been seeing structurally is, of course, like the character of big coin has been changing, right? I mean, we we are looking at an asset that had a realized volatility of around two hundred percent right in twenty twelve.

And now if you look at realized volatility, it's around fifty to sixty percent, right? So the character has been changing and bitcoin has been has become more like a safe and kind of store value with less realized volatility. And my personal expectation is that this trend will continue this kinds structural trend, right, this downtrend and realized volatility and big bitcoin will become less of a risk asset and more gold like over time, right?

I mean, obviously, we all know stock to flow area is already double as high as stead of gold. And uh, talking about inflows, I mean if you compare bitcoin basis gold etf flows for instance, we can talk about uh trading launch inflows big congress is gold but also a year to date inflows since uh the scope c big in E T S launch. I mean um they've been twenty times as much.

I am looking here at the data um across all kinds of gold. F C P. If i'm wrong, mike, but i'm i'm seeing one point one billion net inflows into global golf E T S versus twenty eight point six billion into global big point E T P.

So includes your includes U S asia. And so it's twenty times as large. And um I think you've all seen the the charts about um the uh first year flows, second year flows and so on, right?

I mean and I mean the trading launch knocked IT out of the ball park, right? I mean, even if you adjust for inflation, it's been the most successful etf launch ever. And of the big bitcoin etf flows year to date, already surpass gold etf flows in year one right by factor ten times exactly yes question.

They are so earlier that IT takes time for for for for big fun managers to start shifting the allocations to spit going three d yet does that mean the info that we saw just knowledge in an initial reaction to a long term and no continue continuing record highs over the next few months?

I mean, ah it's it's point obvious that there's so much money is washing around. Just if you look at the trading on itself, how much money has already has already been funded into big coils. But even if you do a very simple calculation rate, for instance, if you just look at passive uh, etf wealth in the U S alone, right, based on I C I data, I mean if even if you do tiny allocations and tiny substitutions of this passive etf wealth into existing U S.

Topical etf, I mean the numbers are huge, right? I mean if you look for instance, at um let's say um U S etf allocators invested twenty send right uh let's say to saw every every fifth acid allocators decided to invest right? And they decided to invest around three percent of their wealth, right, which is a very conservative assumption because we've seen R R I S that allocate up to ten percent for instance as well right we've seen a delmon funds that invest between five and ten percent.

So but let's say they invest between um they just around three percent and only every fifth, so to twenty percent of existing investigation, which is also very reasonable assumption because we know retail uh adoption U S was around twenty percent trade. And so the amount of passive etf wealth in the U S is around nine point one trillion us dollars right nine point one only passive investments. And so if you multiply this high number nine one one trillion by twenty percent for insinuations, three percent location, you already end up with a very, very high a number, which is around fifty trillion, fifty, fifty eight billion.

So just by, just by substitution alone, I mean, we've already seen um let me check the latest numbers. We've already seen around twenty uh seven billion twenty seven point five billion net inflows since train launch, right U S. Pop on etf. If you assume that this substitution continues, right of this specific products and then they are still around thirty point seven billion left, rich, around twenty eight percent .

of those on bason servais estime three percent?

Yes, exactly.

So okay, so that means but so what you sing inflows you double with half way there based on the assumption.

correct? Yes, we're not even half way there.

okay. So does that. So so what does what would that mean? How much blind pressure would that bring to bitcoin? Ts, so if you had to base IT on that assumption, all of being equal, what would that mean for the Price of bit point in the market?

So if you do a quantitative analysis um on the sensitivity of bitcoin s performance with respect to um global bitcoin etp at inflows, it's around a one to one relationship. So for every one percent increase in global A U M um you it's it's associated with a one percent performance per week that's at least historically.

I mean, okay, so based on that, we to based on that based on this assumption again, what the what would the total percentage be?

But based on this assumption loan, you can expect that around twenty eight percent upside just by the substitution flows loan. But we have to keep in mind that, I mean, the pie is growing, right? The global health pie is growing.

This passive etf pie is growing this nine point one trillion. I mean, if equity markets keep rally the pie role, right? So even more potential looking at.

But based on that, so and over the two last questions and then i've got one more etf question, all about potential sAlina etf, for example. If that is, is a likely od are seeing that, but even the metal E T some people talking about just to get really a really dig here. But just one more, one more question.

Over what period of time if you had to make another assumption, tattoo up previous assumption of what party time would you expect to see those inflows and being less same model conservative? Because based on what you've said, there's surprise action that will bring IT going to all about just under one hundred k. So and that's all of being equal.

Not are in pressure. Why not increasing further? So yeah my curiosity I was over what period of time could we see that again being conservative?

So I think because we've seen twenty seven point five billion in net flows strain on and over the past, yeah around eleven months .

rate over during a by an administration and against the C I mean and during .

a sideways market, most of the time right sideways chop market. And so i'd say because we're entering a bull market and it's not only about E T S, I mean, it's generally this kind of supply shock, right, that emanated from the harbin originally right, which happened April. And based on our statistical analysis, uh, the having effect usually starts to become statistically significant around hundred days after noting is not felt immediately to starts to accumulate over time and only gradually starts to kick in right and where I think around two hundred two days after having after the twenty and April and now IT starts to become increasing significant. I and I think based on this supply shock alone, we should approach hundred k by the end of this year and two hundred k by the end of next year. But with that being said, I think the the uh etf demand over and that we're seeing right now, I mean, just yesterday, uh, E T S port, I think by a factor of uh thirty thirty six, I mean the etf the month was higher by a factor of thirty six higher than daily production road. I mean, the demand overhang is so significant that this just adds to the supply shock narrow for IT.

So let me let me dig in to find i've got an interview. You have to go to driver, see, fifteen minutes. So over the next five minutes, I do you want to have a discussion with tom, I and about you as well.

I see your hands up, tom, my next question, and thank you around for this. All of us. He was really, really using analysis and from from the etf and floor of practice, us again, president, all as being equal.

And what you could expect in and talking about one hundred thousand, as I put in the title one hundred k before inauguration, know it's it's outside fair kind of a fair goal to have in and a pretty pragmatic assumption that IT is possible. Obviously, many factories in playing as pretty on more on the optimistic side. And but I do want to go to tom, tom, general thoughts on the discussion.

But more importantly, if we can begin to the rest of the markets, we've talked a lot about bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance still not not too far off sixty percent even though also ring. What do you expect that would what would happen for the rest of the markets? What think that would happen to mean? Coin ship performed really well.

I think that would mean to, I think, VC back projects member, I think I have you said prior to the elections saying how if camera wins, not all outcome, ines will be impacted equally. And he said that define and deepen probably hit the hardest from regulatory perspective. But now that we've got gary gang's ler on his way out and we've got trump administration coming in, what does that for VC back projects that mean and you guys that massive ventures investing and because different yeah yeah, a lot of impact .

acker and I had on some of the points before. And so we were really vocally long, actually at least some of the the teams P S. Leverage long into the election to really confident sort of the polling data and not only which I think is still being a bit underestimated, a trump in, but a win in the senate and the house.

Someone that can mean for not only cro a risk assets more bradly. So when you have a united government, particularly under republicans, you have about a twelve percent annualized expected return that's over the past seventy years. Um you've seen the return profile and a lot of that comes actually within the first nine months of the republican administration when the united to have a lot of front looted kind of Price action.

So you know you ve seen these moves, but I think you're just getting started. You've seen in a bitcoin, but alt um you know so wana and theme followed. But if you look at kind of like the mid to look cap, also really haven't.

Yes, I think that's probably still to come as folks are unwinding a lot of the the trades they had. So the popular trade kind of going into this year would be like short, there am long, whatever pick your other alone, like long, so a or long pick whatever. And you've seen a lot of the online of that, uh, a thereon trade.

And then additionally, I think you're going to see everyone keeps talking with the institutional money through the E T. S. Or otherwise. But I was at the thai event, which is an institutional fox event, where, you know, big names s uh, in the top ero spoke my never gots like all of the big trade, five kind of adjacent allocators some the focus in this this room are there.

And everyone was talking about, you know, that morning in the day, top yo said it's specifically, I got no calls from twenty percent of L. P. S. Saying how I get more allocated kind caught flat footed. So everyone's trying to figure out now from the trade by side is like, oh, crap, I need to get risk on.

I need you really risk on like how do I get in the cypher and the easy way to do that is like OK hell me, just like snacks and eat and bitcoin expression etf, and then leg out through my V C founder, through my, a hedge funder, whatever. So like we talk about this, those is coming. Like I can tell you, the flows are actually coming now because people understand how risk on trump is going to be a more broadly for the administration and just had a bit more colour to that.

So we actually did a survey of one hundred allocators with in uh crp do so hedged funds and VS to see like how ub bullish folks were and how over allocated they were a among other questions we asked, become monday folks interested. But and in the Price targets, actually really low for for allocators on in the space the the top most people thought her bitcoin was one hundred one hundred twenty five k range uh a theoria focus only thought I was getting to like five to seven thousand. So you know just put all together you have allotted ors um even within cyp t over underalls ted not as as bullish as you probably thought and then you have all this trade for money that's scrambling. They like, oh my god, how do I get exposures of asset class. So like a really, really strong signal for um for awkins going into the next kind of month or two, especially books try to get exposure before the year and and and kind of really and when you .

think that would be for startups as well, thought that we most bullish ed for me points and even more so for for startup s in the ecosystem yet. We haven't seen that shift yet.

I do not have look at the markets in last couple of days, but have we seen beyond the top one hundred else? Have we seen startups launch that launching the last cycle, launching the last few months start to perform Better than they have been over the last eight months? Or do you think that will take longer .

flat to down for most of those tokens?

That why exactly? That's what we do want. Why is that? I think that be benefiting the most.

Yeah, it's really tRicky. It's because of the attention economy we live in right now. We're still kind of P V P trading and people are just kind of leveraging ing up on the majors right now.

It's going to come to those other assets. But now it's all the marketing game. What I what I think is actually more uh, interesting to invest in this new projects that are launching that have that attention.

Like grass is a great example. Grass is a deepen. All one focused on no one other things, you know leveraging computer from from local resources.

I think that launched forty x or something.

Yes, there are around the three billion range they launched that a hundred million valuation. You're about to see all the projects that have delayed from April to now launched .

the next six weeks because saw launch immediate after trump. Trump s swing this shit over the next forty eight hours. We saw a whole butch of money.

It's like went IT paused for two days prior. I was looking at IT yesterday. IT paused for the two days prior. The election. Ea, waiting for the results.

And as soon trump point, we saw lot of projects launch, but the performance is still not what you'd expect, at least not a mania phase, but i'd expected to at least improve. okay. And talking about me conscious, well, what's you not not an area to too deep in, but your thoughts what that will mean for main coins.

not a real high conviction play here on means I think meme coins have gotten weight for school. And I think um if I that on a current administration doing something on the way out of the door would be something surrounding me quints. Um so I I would I would be very trade for later.

Yeah, the only point i'd make on mean points and too early is the one thing you can be certain ough in terms of regulation in the us and in terms of where things go is that this nonsense where people, you know, because of how we test effectively, created mean coins to try to build communities which explicitly cut investors away from any economic value, is gonna go away.

And so what does that mean? That means that projects are means that build communities that actually have the ability to monodist. Those communities are going to be the ones that ultimately win.

It's gonna take long, but IT means that ones are we are buying IT as a bini baby. And you know you don't know the tokonoma, you don't look like you don't know the bags that could be dumped done you by the initial holders. Those are all are gonna be real problematic.

And the next time when the bull market slows, those are the ones that you could be looking at, ninety nine point nine, five percent, you know, drops. So I do think there's a sea change going on. So the ability to create, and I love the way tom said.

And when we talked about IT, you know, at magnet, the attention economy is very real, and you could monitise that. But if you can't, the ones that don't are gna get slaughter, I mean, I can slaughter mediately, in fact probably won't get out at all. You'll get swept up with with the rising tide as things are going up. But um when the music stops, that's where the that's the distinction that I think IT is really important from an the best one point of view to keep in mind from a trading point of view, trade them, have fun investing. You really want to be careful.

I was read for me when we saw that the immediate reaction of the markets that mean what is really well say that's not really surprising. But then you saw all these different outcomes. And i'm talking about projects, startups that launch over the last six, twelve, even three years have just not perform well at all. And and that's something so not sure you sexy a shift. And as tom said, do you expect the administration to make an example in in corn while there a lot more friendly to start ups and building to think that.

that they're gonna after fraud and and you will see what actually happens to me, you know depends how things are marketed. I mean, look in crypto people, there is one thing that people encrypt kind to a take advance to take IT for granted that were IT to be securities and or investments in any any form would be absolutely verboten.

Which is the notion of that the whole culture of telegram groups, coordinated pumping and all that sort of, you know, market dynamic, uh, that is not going to be looked upon favorably, will just leave at that way. And you know, I think that they're going to trying to make an example about that till let people go back to investing based upon what's real news and what's real, real economic value. Mean this going to take time? But when you say I want a regulate structure, I forgot who said that in the beginning, but it's very true.

What you're talking about is that you're talking about giving people enough information and not have hoards of people to pop something up. Those those sorts of things uh are not legal under U S. law.

And Frankly, they are not legal under quite a few uh of uh of the investment laws around the world. So we will see what happens. But I suspect that you're going to see the coins that are dependent upon you know promotion under perform, the ones that are dependent upon actually delivering value.

And let me go to a you you you made a tweet and very similar to what we put in the headline. You are general thoughts on the markets and when you think we will hit one hundred k to kind of rap up the space in the initial discussion.

Thank you. Are let me tell you um the ed, the fed made up made up a serious mistake. Um you know there was a discussion earlier today that I might even be why would you want to lower rates if we're going to deregulate and we're going to increase business activity? We're going to keep the trump tax cuts, keeping the competitive edge that we have over the other thirty seven oecd countries that Janet yelling tried to destroy.

Um the fact is liquidity is to rocket fuel for big coin. Bitcoin arrived as an asset in november of twenty twenty one. You have a perfect teeth up in a hand or now going all the way to that last high.

Um and then you have one even less a even more recent that took place, I believe in when we cross up any thousand I believe in may, I forget one was exactly um IT just looks good. The regulatory environment now is going to get is going to be great. Lina cons going.

So as gary dansellon, uh the only the only person standing will be A A little bit warn and and I think that with robbert Kennedy and and with with president trump, you're going to see bitcoin become a bigger part of of what is happening. But what is interesting is bitcoin was created to be a counter to the fed. And I don't know.

I just felt like yesterday the fed fired a shot with a unanimous vote. Uh, I I trust power as as as as an honest man and and he's and he was doing a great job. But I I am wondering if there's something behind this move of lwr ing rates when we're going to have increased economic activity.

IT doesn't add up. It's only going to add fire to BTC and BTC. Gonna probably hit one hundred as early as this year after thanksgiving or as late as the first quarter of next year.

I just don't see how we're not gonna there. We get another right cut in december that's more fuel to the fire. We're going to to see big coin hit one hundred k early in twenty twenty five.

Interesting in forest, you dave color. And then then I sorry, I didn't go to you earlier. Then I want your comments on denis is discussion, but then I will do that on monday. And because I do have to jump up, but I want to get you general force in the markets. And also the question I want to asked the rest of the panel maybe can pick off is if I asked to predict when you would hear a hundred k right, would you say before trumps inauguration? So do you expect in the next couple months.

Go to talk first.

Yeah, please go head done. You got on you. If you might work, go home.

Yeah, I think IT will. I don't think there's any reason to wait for inauguration. The headwinds have shifted. I think there's a clear Mandate going forward. We have clarity that we are going to see Better uh, regulation and legislation. So yeah I think I think absolutely between now and inauguration day, I think we can definitely see one hundred .

thousand agree on dry dave.

Uh, yes, agree because uh even by the splash of alone right, which is which has been building up in the background by the supply shock alone, if you look at quantitative models for having supply shock IT, they apply hundred three thousand in december, right late december ready. So that means before inauguration day.

Dave rapped up for us.

sorry. The only reason that I hesitate to the specific is because so many people believe that I will go there. But I will continue to tell to say that I think a hundred giver take is sort of natural trading. And if Dennis correct and if what happens evolves, uh, the way I think I will be, I think that game theory says that in addition to more corporate allocating, which is not in any of the in any other conversations we talked about and sovereign locating to IT, I don't think any of that is in the Price. And so I think we could see a very interesting first quarter of next year as this story developed. But between now in the end of the year before the curation IT feels technically like we could get there, my gut tells me will probably under perform, you know, in the short run because those things won't be definitive unless somebody does something definitive. I mean, if there are if a sovereign decides to start putting money in or the states actually passed the things that is talking about now, uh, that is a very big signal because game theory means that you want to be the first, you don't want to be the last to put your, you know your strategic reserve in .

bitcoin in said in last quick question, dave, and bitcoin dominance up or down?

Well, I my prediction, i'm not changing anything. I think bitcoin dominance will ultimately go down slightly as the the all clear is given for more all line projects of quite. If i'm right on the next bull run, bitcoin dominance will go up again. As you know, if it's driven by sovereign alth and corporate baLances adaption because .

one of the call on that point, everyone else, we'll see you again on monday. I think we've discuss the there's a few more points you needed to discuss today. Do IT on monday. Congratulations on everyone.

That was we don't had their bags pump after the trump selection and will dig in to I wanted diggin to the rest of the markets a bit more on monday, so I will be my main focus. Scott will be back with us as well. Appreciate all. Thank you so much for joining us and enjoy your week and congratulations by everyone.