Bitcoin Smashes $94K ATH! Is $100K Around the Corner? | Crypto Town Hall
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Happy wednesday morning, everybody. I know this is gonna as a surprise, but spaces are watching stocking. I know I went to, as usual, hit the mike to speak and my mike wouldn't go on.

Ah we've had a number of guests also saying that they are glitches. So we are waiting to get some more people on stage. But who needs more people on stage when you have both might and dave vice gram, we can effectively just talk about macro, my youtube show and what Better day to do IT.

Because as you guys made a bet, I believe, in march, whether bitcoin or gold, but out perform for the next year. And we are really, really close to the exact same levels on that bitcoin golden ratio as we were back then. So I got to say to go either way, I think i'm obviously in team big coin, but I think when you made the bet, the bitcoin golden tio is about thirty four hours, twenty about thirty five point six. But today you are underwater pretty much since the bit until the last two weeks yeah.

you know, I should be doing this. This was video, I would have done IT from my roof. Dex, so I, you can look at this game bay, and, you know, you see me, I do IT from large chair because I.

to be dramatic.

never, never really fluster about. I felt just like you did that the fourth corner will be the start of the rally. And you know, maybe I maybe i'm wrong, but I think the first quarter of next year is with the blow off top.

And if we're not anywhere, you're a blow off top, and we are not by any metric. And I heard you talking with Christ's morning. I think that know he and I aligned very well on the as far as the charts go, but IT goes beyond that.

I mean, in term, the only thing that they only really fluffy part or you you know bubble part of what's going on now is in the U S. And that's the way the the C M B futures are trading at extended premiums. And the reason for that is still that a lot of the mark makers for bitcoin, uh, B I T B and whatever, you know the on the U T, A and I bit options.

Uh and future is basically only way they can head is in the future market because they not allowed to touch the going spot. So we don't have a lot of bubble stuff going on. We've seen little mini Spikes and funding rates, but nothing major.

So yeah, I have really changed my opinion. I mean, I called for two forty and the blow off top, everyone thought I was crazy. People still think i'm crazy, probably for good reason, but nothing has changed. As far as unconcerned IT doesn't mean we're going to go there on the straight line. Now this is one thing we know that won't be the case.

My car turn.

Well, i'm good at losing bets today. Ve, hats off today.

And they ever yet.

yeah. Well, I Willy can see that already. We need you to come down in miami. Scots, we could have a nice steak dinner and me over everyone to eat.

but very, very much. Let, let us know.

We could even take all guys have spent engh time, myself, self, I think that.

So the key thing is the world changed that no november fits. I did not expect mr. Trump get elected. Wrong, stopped up, move on.

Role change is a matter time. But when gets the underground? What is beyond that? They might have Better idea than me.

And I just look at the specular. Access are quite extreme. This is quote for microsatellite this morning, criticized in morning buffet for destroyed value.

Mean, I worked for the japanese firm in the nineties, firms. And I remember hearing things. Same thing, japanese.

I remember here in same thing in two thousand, nineteen ninety and nine and two thousand and seven, and just have to be careful about this provo. And that's visual signs of pigs. But this right now has a good the reason to keep running.

Now I think it's a matter time. Gold gets three grand. What's the key risk is if we wake up when morning mr.

Z E picks up the phone calls, mister putins is not done. Sorry, with this limited friendship, I wanted be a friend. The us, no more cobo, which go day time.

And that's a risk. But overall, to meet the biggest risk for all risk is is and goal is to me as look as more of a put. And that's me, five under.

And I look at treasury bonds, more puts on this. Me five hundred is U. S.

stock. Mark has keep going up yet. I hear so much.

Should people making expectations for next year for all the markets? And I just assume stock markers can keep setting record highs. So that's great.

I hope that happens, but we are getting pretty expensive. So but I think we've raised pretty a significant bond billi vigilante type in faction point. Now we've had the fed cut seven, five bed points yet Bonnie's tanee s they're up about twenty five pots.

That's a really bad time. Sure, we have truck and got elected. Which I had point out from terms of gases and desole and crucial could be very deflationary.

But this is also a bad sign that, that a market is reaching an inflection point. We're right now we're at at twenty two year low with the earnings wheel that next one p five universe, the tanno ill. There's a certain levels that put in investors.

I think our final turnings like bitcoin, not gold yet in the us because gold etf are still outflowing. But to me, that's the biggest macro R O for everything. And I see IT in commodities.

I just look at a you know one year basis, gold up a third and rules down ten percent, our north down twenty percent. So i'll end with this for me everything i'm a commons guy and you try to figure out the quin. But the bottom line for me is everything is still to down to one major commodity that has to go up now, and that's copper because the doctor is showing signs of fAiling. And if IT goes down and means we see a little bit more correction in equities, um bon yields for what's happening in in china and there's a bitcoin cared not at all amazing how it's just showing that negative bate to gama is doing nothing but going up, it's quite impressive.

Well, one thing I I am curious, uh, if you read uh, because it's the second time now that black rock has come out with the these is that aaes something that i've said, uh, years later? Uh so in the recent theses, uh, blackrock went on the spirit defensive White bitcoin will ultimately not be a risk set and probability be lumped with risk assets. Now i'm serious what you thought about that because we won't know anyone has listen to us.

And i've said IT trades like an option I don't want to go through the whole, whole analysis now, but IT trades like an option on its own adoption, which makes IT risk key. It's not really a risk asset and believe that it's just to reach escape velocity and IT will transition. And there's trying to call for that, whether that happens the cycle or not. I do think that's very relevant from from a macro side.

It's what you expect from a cell started to sell the product. I think we have to be careful with the source. And I don't disagree with IT, but it's still three kinds of all to the go.

Next to five. We still haven't had a ten percent correction S P five hundred for over a year. Let me get through that to see a sign, at least that a little more to see a sign that is nicking.

It's could be like a treasury bond. And then I rote about the five years ago to becoming more treasury bonds and gold. But IT is just such a spect with your friends, you right now day.

But I don't disagree with that. I got to see. But IT was considered for us. I mean, I A cell I remember to the same thing on decide you need the.

Product to be. I'm not defended analysts uh, in terms of their their motivations. But I think the reasoning the blackrock said in that report I thought was fairly rational and sounded a lot like things that i've been saying for last couple years. So confirmation bias here, I apologize everyone on the panel on the as I am guilty of that as much as the next guy.

So you guys involved the name of Michael sailor, who stop by or strategy, is currently trading at four hundred and eighty three american dollars for those counting, that's up twelve percent on the day. IT is up one hundred and twenty percent on the month, but early trading at two hundred a thousand a month ago, trading up one hundred and seventy eight percent for six months, trade up six hundred and two percent year to date, and trade up eight hundred and forty six percent in one year, uh, five year, uh, casual, three thousand, seventy three percent more of the bitcoin in capturing all of the upside and more people talking about the infinite money glitch.

Uh, at what point does this microstrip gy move start to yet scary? Or is that every already blown through microstrip gy being scary here might you can jup IT on now? And if you d like.

well, I have personal experience. I mentioned this is the only stock in my entire forty, about forty years in the business. I've had two fathers and the same, different occasions definitely asked me about their son's holding this stock.

IT was strike cut shocking. But you know what is at four times a market value of bit. Now it's quite it's frothy. I get if you're going to buy bit going now you find a microscope.

There was some great opportunities by one of a bit of discount but I thought I was in the morning the chat we have a finance and cypher chat and bomberg which I actually start in two thousand eight um and um one guy was seen, yeah I want some microsoft sign in and buy other proxies for bricks so I think that makes sense. But what you're seeing there, I think part of this guy has got to be some major source, get getting hambard doing the ARP. And that's a key thing about this page is from a trading standpoint is the best place in the world to be a trade into our of its futures and all that's coming out. But i'm sure there's some gonna says there's some painting this microstrip gy traded the moment. Just I just know few Young people, but have my age you've been who bought IT or smart and held on with them, you know, iron hint god was I think what's .

interesting is last time we saw the shorts getting squeeze heavily on microstrip, which was very public fun blue up because I think they had basically dollars liquidated on that recovering that position. We saw big winter down.

Obviously the reason being you kind of talked about that arbed trade might if you're going na be short microstrip gy, you're probably long bitcoin, right? So if you're covering the short of mico strait should be selling bitcoin this time. Bitcoin continues to rap IT up as micros is just wrap rocking up more so sort of a different a different situation yeah so it's one .

those license I learned as an next tech phone, next trader using light of averages and and no sympathy for people losing money and leverage. But there is guaranteed there's a good school eze going on. And I think from the guides who possible long in the good traders who are not skin squeers know that you post to light up and look for other proxies for that positive bated to positive delta to be on and just get quite extreme.

maybe saying past four hundred, I said yesterday at four eighty six now I think IT past three hundred last monday and two hundred, like I said within a month.

So I I think I thought was expensive, around two hundred there.

You O K, so are very different things. You you can be right without, you know, without calling this up there. But I think, you know, take you look at bitcoin trade now at ninety four thousand eight nineteen looks right to push through ninety five, a hundred very squarely in the sites.

I think there was a idea earlier in the year when a lot of us said a hundred by end of year wasn't to craig's target. People thought we were not. Certainly over the summer, I said now you're, uh, you know, uh rounding year on a day's Price action away from hitting that level whether IT does or not in the ninety five is pretty much a hundred right in my mind.

Uh, and I guess a lot of debate after what will happen if when we get to a hundred thousand, is that going to be a major syloson ical level that we are of get rejected for a while? We've never gone back to retest to seventy four thousand all time high uh from march as support that usually does happen with with bitcoin. Uh, anyone here have specific thoughts on this sort of hundred thousand level if IT is meaningful, if IT is not, get at love your opinion.

This I your buyer at all Prices. You talked about this a lot. I know you're actually now they testing that biton algorithm pretty heavily, uh, for buying awesome stuff. I mean, what what do you look in add here now that we're about ninety five thousand or of head into the last part of the.

Well, trying to figure out this microstrip gy trade is run away from me. A bit of I got into a month, maybe less a month ago on options and the equity. Uh, do. It's not sure i've ever seen a run like this.

I can you buy me a plane? Just one small .

place yeah well not sure all about your plan but you know about the plane is lazy of running the mother focus expensive um but you know or you got see that can you just send or you get seen in a rotation from microstrip gy to the or of minor two microstrip gy IT seems like that happening mostly scope.

We're going to get to a .

hundred grand, right? We're going to play with ninety five, one hundred grand here before. Thanks for giving s next weekend, you know next two weeks uh just so much buying and um so I don't i'm most certainly I I don't know how microsoft fails here.

I do appreciate my saying, hey look and you know and president in topping ss um but what what like what makes this market go down here, right? Don't really know. I'd love somebody tell me why would this market sell off twenty years .

thirty percent? I A O just the market in general.

Well, I mean bitcoin is really, you know yeah I mean bitcoin I so much 你 demand yeah like and there's no headwinds， guys. There's like we'd have to have a nuclear bomb drop.

I mean, the only thing I would say is I haven't looked and I know that dave does, but I don't know how much open interest is or how heavily leverage people are long. But you know if we did see something, my dad, I think you would be just sort of a massive flesh and you know, back the other way, think would .

be exciting. I I love to see that. That's what I would like.

Somebody say, hey, look, this should correct twenty or thirty percent. I've got some fresh powder. I need to figure out when and how to deploy IT .

or do I just jump on the man wagon, right? yes.

I will tell you that I have been a long time, but I have visual memories in two thousand uh in the last couple months of the internet bubble and IT was day after day like this. And in fact, I said this last week so that you get to rally on monday. Tuesday is a reversal day because people that consolidates wednesday, whatever happens on wednesday as the trend for the rest of the weekend, and I will continue through friday.

Now the repeat the next week, uh, and most of those weeks, wednesday were up and there for thursday and friday were up. And I I can't tell you how many times I heard people say the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solve in from people who are on the short side. And that is the trading pattern that we're in.

And so that is different than bitcoin ins ever had because game theory tells you. And you know, this is when I talked about IT, uh, there's a lot of people out there who don't consider bitcoin all as festivals as they would like because there's not as much liquidity as they would like to get. Well, that is not the kind of thing where that's not where botton reformed.

Just leave at that. You know you need higher Prices to get that look, attract that liquidity. And now I think is playing out now. Uh, you know if that is that not in the strain line, but that's .

what IT feels like.

Then yeah morning guys just just want to tell me a couple of key matrix that I check uh, when I wake up in the morning. Obviously Price in asia. So it's a little different. Um it's eleven forty almost here at night.

Um government so I check uh that are important uh etf inflows and then the number of bitcoin uh on exchanges number of bitcoin changes is quite important because that's the number is effectively available you to buy um the number of big coin available exchanges you can check on. I think it's like no or um that has come down by about in four hundred thousand bitcoin over last month from about two point seven million bitcoin available exchanges to about two point three million available now. You know I have some bit of changes to do to clatter ze my trades.

And you know I gona show you they are not for sale. So there's a lot of those big they are all exchanges that are not available for sale, but for IT to come down by four hundred thousand big coin of last month. Um I think it's really I think the supply side um tightening is very much real and the etf inflows are incredible real.

Um and you also to remember that um the etf are not available as I just tried to purchase some I bit call options through my broken sexy and they not available there either. So I think the demand side for microscope part of IT is that a lot of people are unable to access the etf or you know other products like like that. And so I think that's the reason it's going into microscope.

And I think there is almost h almost unlimited bid on on microphone right now. And there is very clearly a limited of big. So it's something this is my third crp cycle.

And I remember that in a bar in column in twenty seventeen, watching biton Price go up by a thousand you know in the space of a few minutes, as I said, I watched and that's when he was trading around five six thousand laws. So as a percentage, that's quite substantive. Um so I think yeah I think we're seen the things that we've been predicting for a while, which is supplies I choked and almost unlimited demand.

I think that's what leading to the situation of seeing. I don't really see a situation where we pulled back unless as something very significant that happens. So today, SHE moving his coins would obviously be a massive thing that would cause a set of a massive floor in the software, you know, as some bug. I I put this massive, I don't think they going to happen, but that's the only thing that I can think of that mind. See A L of here.

James, you nice folks this morning on youtube, obviously in everybody talking about the options, I mean, objectively, yesterday was a monster day for notional volume on the ebit options now were getting get wise options today. And others, I mean is about two billion, as you told me. But what kind of struck me when we spoke was how heavily that is waited towards calls right on betting on much higher Prices in the future.

Not much evidence that IT was the Carry trained with people short in the country and getting long spot. I mean, people are speculating and much, much hier Prices, right? I know you up, and here we are.

Sorry, sorry, no, sorry. That must I know? I see. I saw your mustache from november today on youtube, and I know that I just got in the way of the my button.

yeah. I couldn't figure out how to turn the mike off. Oh my god, it's my fault. Yeah I mean, the numbers are were extremely impressive.

I mean, so you said you're right, it's about two billion dollars a notional change volume um if you put down in the context vito, which previously had been the number one way to trade options on the trade buy marketplace for bitcoin, that's the big coin futures etf that traded about three hundred sixty million on the same day. Uh, GLD, the most liquid gold D T, F for the most liquid options market traded about five billion. So I bit on day one trade a just shy of two billion, when gold GLD usually trades five billion.

So one smashing success. Honestly, it's T, S, are just yet every time they look at something new, they kind of break the old record. We don't really have a record of the first day trading volume because it's not typically something we pay attaching to these etf.

Go through a special approve process, which we've talked about on these spaces many times. They also have to go through a special proof process for options, whether like the microstrip gy two x elaborate etf had the options the day and listed. So there is not really clear to get um to know exactly what the record is. But as you said, it's heavily skew out of the money calls.

Like all the trading, the vast majority of training was in contracts of fifty five dollars a share for I bit or higher and fifty five dollars a shares to move into like ninety seven ninety eight k and one of the most strait strike Prices was the hundred dollar strike Prices, which is equivalent to one hundred seventy six thousand dollars per bitcoin. Obviously a lot of those are sort of call options, but I am that was in line with with days view on on where bitcoin could be going. So people are obviously taking shots and that's the further out you can go on the strike Price basis.

So um were very early days. We have a bunch of other etf options coming online today. So I bit was available yesterday.

Today, you will have both great scale products with options. You have bit wise product and you have for this product and you have arch product. So we're very early days and seeing what they do. But I you'd be crazy to assume that, that options positioning the heavy skill out of the money calls did an impact are causing the the helping raise bitcoin to new all time eyes yesterday and today.

And you mentioned also they're still very, very uh, low size that you're allowed to trade, right, twenty five thousand contracts or something?

Yes, exactly. That's a good point. So the S C C and C F T C, I don't know exactly we went implemented, but usually there's always position limits on these options contracts. You can only own so many options, right?

Uh, for most etf, the vast majority eighty percent plus or more that have options strating the position limits or something like two hundred thousand contracts or two hundred fifty thousand contracts. There are some with smaller limits at like seventy five, fifty thousand, but the smaller limit is twenty five thousand. I mean, if you look at the volume and liquidity available, I been an F P T C, even bit b, an arc b IT would justify much higher position limits.

But the sec is worried about manipulation of the underline spot prize. I guess I worry about gama squeezes. Who knows exactly what they're worried about, but they're worried about manipulating the underline big point Price and they've set the limit at twenty five thousand.

So there there's basically um you know there's a way being held around how much these options can be used. I don't know how much of the impact that had on day one. Um but the other thing I would say is I begot the launch their options before all the other E T of issuers.

And ironically enough, that position limit if somebody is actually bumping up against IT um IT IT probably push the liquidity to the other etf isr. The other etf isr should be happy that there's twenty five k physical limit on these contracts as far as i've concerned. And the other impact of that is we're unlikely to see, you know uh, as many bitcoin covered call bitcoin structured product outcome etf until that position limit is raised until we get flexed options. Uh, but I think all of that is coming. It's just a matter of time.

But this sexual the turnaround to get this trading was pretty fast once we saw the election, right, because I think there is the sort of notion the S C R C F C, in this case, take their sweet time, right? And uh, seems like they kind of ended up trading overnight from when we heard that, that could happen. They were proved months ago.

yeah. So this process is rather unique. So with the etf is really just the S C, C and multiple divisions at the S C, C. That are proved the listing of the E T S for options on one nine hundred and thirty three actor commodities based trust shire.

You have to go through the S C C, A division of training and markets, and you have to go through the C F T C and the O C C. So what we we had the approval of these things a couple of months ago, like you said um from the S C C, but we don't have thing from the cftc. The problem was we had plenty of examples of other etf that just never got through the cftc approval process.

Um I my expectation was I thought I would happen in q one of twenty five, but I always said that could happen in in twenty four. And I guess yeah, you're right. Things just happen rather quickly.

So cftc approved last week, we got an occ letter essentially yesterday saying they were ready to go. And I was scrambling to figure out, does that mean they are to start trading tomorrow or just this week? And sure enough, they started trading literally the next day. So um we're in the sample with these other these other contracts now we have the other E T train the contracts today, so was rather quick. I don't know that was the election that did IT, but they maybe they just wanted to get in off their plates, but yet happened rather quickly.

Here I head that before .

yeah it's just gna say, I feel like it's it's just been a perfect storm gary was kind of asking earlier like, well, you know what what stops is train from hiding one hundred k and then going down from the or crashing and I mean, Michael say a going on vanik uh space lost not I don't know if anyone here listen to that. That was hugely interesting. Um he's really clearly explaining his strategy and how microbes rosta teach is going about this.

And i've seen so many interesting takes on x in the last forty eight hours um you know very, very repeatable um traders economist kind of saying, you know when does the microstrip gy bubble burst and Michael sailor saying IT does not i'm not expert on this stuff but I mean I he really has cracked this infinite money glitch and I feel with microstrip gy what they're doing uh the amount of publicity that they're getting on that um sale is bullish ones. Uh his uh announced that he's gonna doing a presentation to the microsoft board, uh, next month and talk to the bitcoin bull in january. This just so much bullish headwind that IT just seems inevitable that the Price will go past one hundred thousand dollars.

And I mean, it's great to James as yeah, you could talk a bit more probably about the inflows. The E T. S. yesterday.

I I can't remember I saw the tweet earlier this afternoon, but you know this, I need so many big coin being mainly every day, and is like nine hundred bitcoin being brought up yesterday by the 呃 bitcoin E T S cumulo vely。 So this just such a massive demand for bitcoin at the moment IT does seem inevitable and that the reality is like the Michael sale is raising a lot of money to buy a lot of bitcoin and is still pales in comparison to what you know. These are big financial institutions and asset managers are doing.

So it's it's just honest. The rate at which things are going right now is is quite crazy. And I mean, I been watching the microstrip gy stock today like and with IT with a range .

of trading ety .

where five hundred dollars already, it's unreal .

yeah Michael sailors last purchase of four billion bitcoin just the other day. And by the way, I just rates, I think one point eight point two because so much raising million, but I think the last purchase alone was you know three to four months worth of mind. Bitcoin like the the next three to four months worth of mine, big quid.

So from the perspective of mining and the having, yes, I think that a the supply is effectively gone, but we all know that there's a lot more supply and market mind because huge is that to tion. I'm going to let James and dan jump in, in one second. But mike, when you you hear things because i'm going to let you would be the bad guy instead of me, would you hear that you like infinite money glitch and he's so bullish that he says he can't ever go down. What stop is train laugh. Uh, I I have been here as long as you but um you know those are the same signals that make me buy things when everybody tells me they're dead and going to zero so yeah I kind of feel i'm not saying you should sell IT, but those feel like cells have you ever nothing goes up forever is .

a lesson I learned in the train bits in turn. Certainly, with customers is a great way to stay, and businesses take profits once a while. How much you nail that? I promised to the question. We all know the rational money managers out there is you if you're going to do in this environment, you use an option strategy and options open up, mean you have careful excuse, you know, as an exact trade.

I knew I find a lot of ways be selling calls and buying something against IT and locked in some good profits but this is classic classic extreme stuff um and you want to be the first guy buying here but you know that's key thing. And careful about all everything I seen prick now is so polish and it's great IT should be IT had a great exchange for the world, the world change on november fifth. But as you said, you know that this is certain times you know open markets ended, etta, and we're definitely eur A I mean.

you know you something can go up and continue to go up and trend up, but twenty percent a day gets a little scary, say at least for a flash you know up to general uh, comment on the path. But IT starts to get the spider sensus tingling, James and.

Yeah, I mean, I I if commenting on microsoft quick, I mean onest ly, I thought the thing was expensive hundreds of dollars ago for share. So i'm not necessarily the right person to talk about IT, but I will say it's likely to be added to the q so it's right now in the nasdaq stock market index, which is the broad index hold a whole bunch but the q the next one um this thing is I mean, is that guaranteeing obviously things can happen, but in december is likely to be added.

It's going to across that uh， rebaLance ed data reconstitution date for that index, and it's likely to be added to the use, which there are hundreds of billions of dollars that track that index. And then you ve got to talk about the fact that IT has the possibility of getting into the SMP5 undered as well。 So um that said, the S M P five hundred community has a little more direction and they didn't add tesla for forever.

And but you could be looking at microstrip gy being added to the two biggest U S. Indexes um at some point the next year. So which is another tail. And on top of whatever, I want to be clear yeah I .

want to be clear. I this is my friend friendly with Michael sailor at the bingers house a bunch times with talk big when i've had him on my shows, I absolutely think that he is a legend. Will go down in the angles of history as a warn buffett level investor, that doesn't mean it's like the stock can ever go down or flush out uh, some of the some of the excess. I think the path continues to be up for a very long time, especially if we consider that the crypt ble market is likely just getting started. I'm just saying in a vacuum, the terminology infinite money glitch and can't ever go down are usually uh, signals if I could have .

down yeah I wanted to .

a correct garet. He he understated the etf inflows by by telex that the numbers of bitcoin acquired by the etf yesterday was uh, around nine thousand. There's about four or fifty new bitcoin mind, but the nine thousand swept up by the etf, just the E S.

Alone at twenty times the daily issuance, right? And you forget about everybody is disc the the retail people are details a massive amount you have other companies are requiring a microstrip gy are also requiring. So it's feasible that yesterday I have seen a month worth of new bitcoin taken off and and put into cold storage.

This simply cannot continue for now forever. Um as I said, this is the supply shock. Um we spoke about IT for a long time. Bicknell spoke about and said this going to happen um yeah I want to created IT IT was a twenty times the daily issuance of bit was swept up by the E T. S.

Yesterday on I missed zero. My apologies.

It's easy to happen in this markets. Uh gave go .

head yeah I I agree with you when you say, look, infinite money glitch and all the other stuff look his prior meeting. You know it's it's you take the series three. It's right there.

You know its leverage job as the Price goes up, the underline collateral is still what IT is as long as it's the discipline on microstrip. Gy is enforced by the market. However, it's not reckless permanent.

So uh to put an example, you know the the audience is that you are talking about this morning that on a day when the market goes up so much to get liquidated on the long side because they do fifty x leverage, IT drops three percent in a small correction, the day when he goes up ten percent, I mean, you get knocked doubt. Yeah, okay. That is the fuel for the flushes is that you generally see the difference between there are two points of microstrip.

Gy, the first thing is there is no scenario short of the capitalism, short of there is a flaw of a major black swan such as, I forgot who was talking about them. If Justin bonds is right, there's in in his stuff. And a lot of what he says when uses words like bank run that makes my head head because it's it's unbelievably ignorant.

And i'd love to debate that with him, but he's not here. I I want to go there. But the fact is microsoft leverage is not the kind that's gonna get wiped out even when a doubt went below twenty in the F, T, X melt down, he wasn't really close to getting stopped out based upon the bond convenience that that that he signed.

So I think that it's it's not really as bad to the downside. But AR as the upside is concerned, there is a limit to what he can do relative to bitcoin. But a bitcoin does a ten X.

I mean, is IT unreasonable to think microsoft do another twenty to thirty x? Of course not. And you know there's a lot of people playing that trade and there's all sorts of interesting dynamics around there.

But what you have is a moving target. It's not a fixed ratio and a lot of of not new by traders. Look at IT as a fixed ratio.

Look at the market cap is too high relative to IT, except for when bitcoin goes up, he can buy more. And so it's not a money glide. It's not perpetual motion. Obviously, if if we get another stalled out, IT will stall out.

But IT is in leverage play in a fairly well baLanced way of doing so far more so the most of the leverage T S, which use futures and have enormous role costs to bake in which where they get they get wiped out. Microphone doesn't have that components. So if you're looking for a leverage play as being managed somewhat professionally, IT makes sense and that's why the demand is there. I mean, look, i've you know i've had IT in my retirement fund for the last year. Obviously, it's my best performing uh you know holding but you know so beit right you know but that that's the theory behind IT.

My question is, does that become the inherent risk in the system? Then if something does go bad and you know everyone just sells old, he is does does that change anything? And also does micros strategy um become uh a secondary play for everyone that can't get bitcoin anymore? If the Price just goes completely parabolic, it's a lot more affordable to just buy microstrip gy shares for the common man that's giving you indirect exposure to bitcoin, knowing or banking on the fact that is just gonna ue appreciating in value. And let's say the bitcoin ball gets passed in january next year and the Price goes in you know h into the hundreds of thousands of dollars per italian.

I mean, i'll take IT a walk and answering. I think that there's two pieces here. First, uh, will people use IT as proxy? Yes, uh, but I think that that a lot more will and in fact the the numbers bear this out.

A lot more are using the etf to be a direct proxy. Ones are more aggressive who want someone to manage eleven fund, no will will go there. And so I think that there's different use cases for different things. The more interesting question about microstrip gy is, is what we're seeing over the last week to two weeks a trickle or the beginning of a flood of corporate CFO s saying, you know, wait a minute, this guy is on to something. We should do something with our our cash that .

what does that do? The microscope stock of ten other companies start raising convert notes to buy the it's ratio it's .

it's outperformance of bitcoin spot will slow, but bitcoin spot will will, jim, therefore, in absolute terms that will do well.

So the morning and and that's why Michael sailor hasn't stopped sharing his playbook, right? I mean, he's just shouted from the rooftop, which is been amazing to me. You think if someone figures out something you know this smart, like they wouldn't offer IT everyone else and that's he's just gone on every podcast, every available platform and told everyone what he's doing.

Look, yeah, that's because his his Mandate, his goal. And i've had this conversation, gary, we were together in all nature and one of the two, and when we cut a chicken and know you took a meeting, he just wants to sell bitcoin, not is, but he is. He used himself as the world leading salesmen for bitcoin.

He wants every country, every company, every person to buy bitcoin. And that is what he's trying to do. And, you know, I see the laughing faces, but I think he'll basically tell you that, I mean, his goal is to get as many people on planet earth, including institutions and countries, to buy big point. So none of that conflicts with the interest .

of microsoft ue. But there's an all the axim when when in trading is ever bad to be first? It's terrible to be last. You know if you're the last buyer, but you know, being buying first is always good. Which, by the way, applies to the game theory with regard to strategic reserves, whether the trump team will do something there, states that are looking to do with other nation states of their companies in seta. So I mean, once you establish position, I mean, you've been all sorts of of of examples historically ally good and bad of people who establish positions and then talk about that. I think in his particular case, he's clearly a missionary in in in his belief system and and I understand that and you say and I can be genuine that but you don't get poor uh by buying first than having other people I after you yeah then yeah .

just to come back on the great point .

um he said what would happen if people start selling off microstrip gy shirts? I think if people start selling off microstrip gy shares, that's not gonna ank the Price of bitcoin. All that will do is reduce the premium that is treating that um if if microscope starts on in bicoastal completely .

fact yeah but I can't imagine IT right I mean, with that I don't never do that. You never know. But right is still buy and curly .

they so what we've done now to build up a massive kind of danger risk now with my day, one day, Michael said, wakes up in the size, mick, in big trouble. So IT is a huge rest is a concentrated risk having that much big with born person um we are put in faith in somebody which is you know against the initial idea of big coins will be decentralize and no people like is off to the cycles we've seen.

Whoever makes himselve the main character usually ends up in prison, right? Um not saying I expect that's going to happen, Michael. Uh, anything, but we do have to be on the fact that make a holding that money, bitcoin is a tangible risk, is a real risk. Um I don't .

lose sleep over IT dos block one on more big in the micros, say to have .

those numbers from the E S I C. Uh, I think as I recall from same today, um it's satory than baLance than microscope. Gy, I could be wrong.

It's interesting me, as I tell you talking about that we are obviously clearing for trump and the republicans to propose a strategic reserve of bitcoin, uh, which could start obviously with not selling off what's left from silk road and other uh you know confiscate bitcoin but being proposed to buy you know one million, two million more bitcoin for the united states.

Interestingly, as much as we cheer for that, and I think you will be amazing, we've seen in this country that when there is regime change, and I know that nobody wants to hear, but one day there will be a democrat, pressure power have no idea what that will happen. They can just change the laws and sell all of that off with that. Be a similar risk then I exactly say about with microsoft ted states of lip you get actually.

If so, any one person holding that much bitcoin is a risk that mean that's just mathematics is just obvious. Um yeah, it's coming. I mean, we saw germany dt all of that in um a while ago, right? They don't something like fifty k which is records, but um IT is a rst.

We also we've had for ages the idea of the mount dox coins coming back online and then being old and always these ways, then we have the bit fenix getting their bit going back and you there's always this when you have constructed holding um you know it's it's not essential can be coordinated that they want to sell off yeah I propose the idea of the U. S. Building up a massive reserve and then staying office at least four years away. So hopefully then we ve got mass you know hyper big consideration whatever. But yeah it's it's obviously with that's not you know pretend that is not.

But what can I say sky? Can I just say, like I do appreciate the gentleman comments. There is risk when there's consolidation.

But to play that we're doing is we're moving from a highly centralize government. We don't even know who to blame, uh, massively centralized. We know the money is monopoly ly money.

And i'm OK moving to a group of people cohorts to actually you're going to advantage themselves against the government. What I want more companies find by going like this. I think it's really good that we have some multiple lion dollar entities that can offset this crazy government policy, uh, basically just burn in money up to do nothing.

So I I for me, the risk is are moving into a new money system. That's the way I look at this. And do I have some possible risk, of course, but I I already know I have all that risk. We're being a blood rated here .

every day is the only way to shore fire, lose money is to keeping your bank account and have the person power eroded every year through inflation. So sitting on cash is the only one hundred and share way to lose money, right? So I agree you i'm just pointing out that having some person hold a million bitcoin is a risk if if that's something that can be collectively sold at a point, having a million people hold one bit on each is far less risky than having one point.

Yeah but i'm saying the only way to show file money, stay in, treated well, said he said was sitting on, was at half a billion dollars of cash melting ice cube um so I great look and I think is Better if more companies by then you have that diversification, you have that distribution. Um but yeah, if one day he mark straker does decide to sell, we're going to be in big trouble. It's it's just .

a fact yeah i'm looking at the now uh so microsys mid three hundred thousands, I ChatGPT IT a bitcoin. As of november seventy, there was three hundred and thirty one thousand and six, actually about more. Since then, a block one holds one hundred and forty thousand people in.

But just so people know, block one one hundred and thousand. And that is from the ico of eos, which was the largest ico ever that never did anything and now they're sitting on a piles of one hundred and forty thousand eight. One just case are wondering how nonsensical uh, crypto can be.

Uh that may be the most absurd uh, thing that we have in this entire space, maybe ever, but guess a nice poon to them. I mean, anybody else here worried about concentration risk? I mean, if you're worried about, you know, this is so you want to have a million big coin in IT. Seems like you should be worried about anyone having big in IT go head, James.

Yeah going to say I I agree that it's kind of like it's always a little unsettling to me when somebody y's you know hungry, hungry hippos uh, as much bitcoin as seller and microstrip gy I have taken control of. But imagine the one point one million satoshi bakino. I mean, the U.

S. Body etf are likely to pass the toshi in ownership of bitcoins in the next couple of weeks. Last I checked, there were just shy.

They're over one point zero seven million bitcoin in the U. S. Pop coin, T, F. So they're nearing in on as a group passing to toshi estimated big line others.

but they held on the behalf their clients.

The clients that decide to sell them know that they're not held by by black room themselves. So I still would be a distributed effort to sell them.

correct? That's exactly true. But I would I would you could also make the argument that technically microstrip gy big owned by their shareholder, not necessarily, but it's it's more concentrated risk on to .

who control the rip as if they were to be seized by a government. I think is is more likely the sea. Something since most of them are custody.

That coin base does a concentrator? Is there of something happened to covas? Is, uh, custody?

Yeah I mean, the number one complaints I got before the etf, there was a whole bunch of like B S complaints about what the E F are going to do to manipulate the markets. But the one that the couple of concerns you just hit him, one concentration in both uh, coin base custody that definitely a legitimate concern to be worried about. It's pretty much all there and it's not just the U S.

T. Is also White global institutions for the most part. A lot of the bitcoin is custody at coin base. Um and the other one is, like you said, the one we call the the the same problem with like gold bugs. A lot of true gold bugs don't like gold etf because they don't have the.

Dual gold and they're like, if anything goes wrong, I want to have the actual gold and like, okay, that's a legitimate concern. If you if you are worry that the governments gonna seize your bitcoin like they did sees gold and and stuff like then yeah, you the etf is gonna a be disadvantaged for holding bitcoin itself directly. So those are the few, like, in my opinion, legitimate criticism s and reasons why you wouldn't want to hold an etf.

But there's plenty of, you know, accounts and people who literally do not have the ability to hold the coin because they are not allowed, you don't have access to or simply have taxed and accounts and they lean on that stuff that way. But also probably, as we said earlier, why a lot of people are buying microstrip. Gy.

yeah, I put the out of either those events happening at below one percent, significantly below that. But if they did happen, they would be catastrophic. So i'm not losing anything with that.

I'm still irresponsible. Long bitcoin hold sport bitcoin options. Uh, the rest of IT, uh, I just think IT doesn't all favors in in moments of you for this, to be honest about the .

risks I am. I remember last photo, people not realizing what the risks were. The comedy, they were right.

Uh, both of us, right. Uh, very few people. F, X, coming, for example. So want to know we got to rap in a couple minutes, but did want to just point out we've had a lot of conversation here, dave, you and I especially about about luck, uh, sea of core fits, jailed and where he would land.

A lot of people thinking that he would ended up being treasure a secretary, the treasury ended up IT looks like you'll be leading the department of of commerce, the commerce department, which is basically trade and terrify today. I mean, what do you think of that appointment? We knew that equation somewhere. He was, you know, pivotal in the transition team here. Um and what does that mean .

for for crypto? Well, you know having a big coiner and a supporter of non government runs stable coins as the secretary of commerce is undeniably a good thing. I think that there will be a lot of interesting questions of what's under history diverses others but the real thing that everyone cares about is are we going to get all the yours pulling pulling together or not and I look I don't know uh personally uh or very much about a couple of the people being talked about for both treasury in the S C C.

But I think that the most important question is how philosophically aligned are they going to be and where will you be and and how our opinions changing so like for example, you know what the S C C people are. You very concerned that, uh, mr. Stevens is a candidate because he was the G C.

Under jake laden who filed the ripple lawsuit. And you know it's extra human iai audio. Ta don't forget at the same time trump himself said bitcoin was worthless uh, and the whole world is basically said, okay, well, he's been converted so and we all sit so j.

Clay and go from not allowing heston's safe harbor, which I will contend and always will, that with the biggest mistake he is made and arguably the biggest thing that that that is screw over the crypto industry for the last six years. But he went from that to advising companies in know, in the cypher sphere to, you know, go digital. So people do change and we don't know what their actual opinions are going to be until you start making policy.

So right now, there's just lots of handwringing IT are over the question of are they all going to believe the same thing with how a lot met? You don't have that question. We we know where he stands and I think that that's important that he has that cabinet seat and he's sitting there. So I do think it's very real.

I'm yet to see a cabinet employment of someone who is not outspokenly procris pto or big win in some way they perform in amy position.

right? I need, I need. Look, the clipper community wants to see bilham ity. Uh, because you, I I reposted something you know from he was national or he just miserable warns you discussion you know her her entire position on bitcoin and crypto but mean he's very, very clear.

I think a lot of people you know think that that Scott descent would be very, very good. I am not sure he pronounced his name. I'm sorry if I put to, but I think we all have to take a way and see attitude. I mean, some of us want to see change. So like you know, the thing that drives me crazy as we talk about S, C C and C F T C, and we have somewhat we have the vaccine on mosk, neither one of which probably thinks they should be two agency.

Now whether they they'll be able to work for commerce to change that or not, I don't know, but that's a major if you want to make government more efficient, don't have to redundant overlapping fighting agencies in charge of financial markets when no one else in the world does that. So who knows what's gona happen? I think I think we all around the way to see stage with significant.

they were going to a move to rap. D, B, you haven't, uh, really had chance to speak. I just happen to pop onto your profile while we were talking and you did just the favor of posting that chart of top B, D, C holders.

What I find, what you were just discussing, the obviously what I find interesting is here, here is that you have current base one, obviously. So the total is private finances on behalf of their customers, black rocks on behalf of their customers. So it's really microstrip gy and toi at the top two who have actively on their own behalf purchase this much bitcoin as you go down.

It's just largely exchanges and etf, right? So is very few entities that are even close to the size we have actively like manage and bot bitcoin for personal position, even if you consider microstrip gic up half to share all this right, it's really interesting chart. T V.

Yeah yeah for sure. And onest ly, i'm just here for the ride right now. I'm i'm the tech guy and I enjoy listening to these brilliant analysts. So this this is the point in the cycle where I just sit back and tech isn't very useful building .

the bear but exactly .

that's that's when you study that's when you do all what I do and yeah, use these chats are great. I'm not high enough to be in the round table chats, but uh, also not an analyst enough to be here sometimes.

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