Trump and Shadow President Elon
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Welcome to econ one or two where economist noise Smith and I makes sense of what's happening in the news, technology, business and beyond through the lens of economics, let's generate IT.

alright. yeah. Anyway, so are you happy with .

the election result? So we're speaking, you know, the morning after the election and i'll say, you know, i'm happy, but mix, I think one thing i'm happy about is that IT was a blow out. And I think the worst case scenario would have been a contested election on either side that you know would have drawn this, you know, out for months.

I think I would preferred red a mila blow out to a trump narrow Victory that sort of divided the of the nation terms of who won, I think other things to be excited about, or i'm excited for the democrats to regroup and have a stronger candidate. And just kind of start first principles on, hey, what do we stand for right now? What's popular, what can win? And how do we how do we fight back? Because IT seemed like the current approach wasn't doesn't working.

I think i'm definitely nervous about all the things that we've been talking about in terms of will elon really have influence? Well, you know, it's trm going to turn on everything that he, everybody that he that helps helped him win that you know yeah know the tariff on. I mean, a lot of things that we've been talking about that you've been writing about, they're real concerns. So know some things to you know, I could have been much worse, some things to be happy about, but you know, is elan really helping around the country right now? If so, that's .

exciting. Save less shadow president elan, that's that's basically the idea and how it's like, yeah, elan would fully allow high skill immigration to continue camped down on tariff s and do more fiscal austerity as opposed to rampant deficit blow out. That's the the hope, right?

That's the hope I think I think which shows the high variance option. And with high variance, there's real this real risk we're not returning to Normal sey as as as we mentioned, the approach could could been. So now you know things are things are up in the air and we'll see what happens.

And right now, the day before the election, you wrote common will preserve our democratic institutions while she's trying to jail her political opponent proposed state run censorship and the bank or political enemies. Is that true? Was that was that really true?

That was me mostly just venting at, I felt there was an N A cemetery, how both sides were were covered, not come out herself. But but I did feel that both parties were playing sort of below the below the belt. But if you're feel free to, you know, tell me I was wrong or tell me out you out of line or but I well.

no, I mean, I don't know about that because, you know, I was I was struck by how bindon's justice department refrain from going after trump himself very aggressively. He was invited in state courts, but the justice department, mary garlin didn't didn't really go after, right? basically. Yeah, so so that was one, that was one thing about this narrative of going after your political opponents.

Y, I think that conservatives and republicans tendency everything from, you know, will style to, like university humanity professor saying crazy lefty shit, to palestine protesters, to state attorney generals, to like, you know, whoever their mother in law as like one unified progressive enemy block, and that whatever any of those people do was done by the whole left know where, as I think that the bite administration did not go after trump was, there was state ages who went after him. And there's a limited degree to which the administration controls the state guys. You know, like they're going to do what they're going to do and state run censorship.

I'm not actually sure. I do think that I saw tim walls proposed that. So i'll i'll give you that one. I'm pretty worried about like you know hate speech laws basically like of being a back door for for censorship and but then but the debt political enemies, I don't actually know about that. I have no information about whether that happened. I know that during the twenty ten there are some effort to like kick you know some people out of like various like catch on and stuff like that, but I don't actually know about D, K, D, banking, political enemy. So if you know about that, and I don't that you have something to teach me.

I will contest to just venting on on acts after after a debate A I was having with a, with with a friend I think, you know, I was worried for what would happen to elon in a, in a common when maybe nothing would have happened.

And, you know, maybe like more cuban, you know, just did elon might elon, I wouldn't have been as magas as cuban and say, congratulations, very square, which which props to cuban, by the way, for doing that but and maybe come we've just said, no elan now it's time to join us and let's make this country great or know maybe there would have been some if like biden wasn't particularly friendly to to elon, both in terms of some of things, he said but but also IT seems like elan, you know, his companies weren't recognized and weren't sort of didn't seem like most collaborative relationship, which is maybe why he was so going home on trump. And so I I think you wrote the other week in laws, one of the most important people in in in in our country right now, if not the most. And so we need you on and administration that is excited to work with elan and and maybe come a would have been to basically .

safely shadow president elon, that's the name of this episode save us shadow president ella. I think it's it's kind of funny because, you know, will stand call this this sort of online shouting kind of guy who who try to win a democratic primary and lost kind of a twitter act of this type.

And I like and I have affection for him, but I you know, i've don't think he's always like this markest guy, but he's you and banging on and on elon's really running the show. It's elon. It's shadow president elan. And what i've tried to convey to him is that the almost no one who hears this will think that's a bad thing.

Like this is this is you just take upon like why tech people or so you know a lot of tech people went so hard for trump, like because they they believe in shadow president in on theory or at least shadow president vance and techy friends of vance theory, right, which is not a one hundred percent shadow of president elon though he's the most for one. But like, yeah, basically I think that the idea that that writting tech people are going to be able as secretly and control of the administration is the great hope of elite te trumPeters. I think and that's that's interesting because I think it's you're starting this is the counter to education polarization.

The education polarization has deprived the conservative movement of its smart people, and not all of them, but a lot of them, like back in the days of regan, smart people tended to vote republican more than democratic mocs at the party, the working class, whether the educated people were republican types. And and that's totally shifted, totally flipped, you know, since then. And it's worrying because I think that i'm going to write a lot more about this, but I think that the progressive, educated, sort of upper the class of very out of touch, in fact, camera one, SHE one voters making over hundred k year and SHE lost voters making fifty one hundred k and voters making less than fifty k SHE actually lost them.

Our right to trump. H, according to exit polls. Now, exit polls have a margin of era.

You know something, they sometimes get corrected. response. Rats are read. But that's like the democrats are no longer the part of the word in class of the party, educated, upper class progressives.

I'm worried about that because I think that educational progress, progressive live in a bubble. Now writing, tech people live in a bubble too. And writing, you know, like great.

When decks, people may feel that they have some sort of spiritual connection with the great masses who vote for the same candidate that they do. But you know, like like angry cab drivers yelling about how much immigration there is are not going to herriton. alright? They're they are not coming to they're not coming to like .

our parties or .

whatever yeah parties yeah and so yeah like there's that was going to say they're not going to the interview yeah class .

divide there, right?

There's a there's a big class vide. I don't know that I don't know that even shed a president, elon has will knows how to help the real work in class. Obviously deregulation would would help in in some things, right? But then, you know, in terms of just the basics that benefit the word class, I thought biding was really good.

I thought sort of a prince ship programs like do do the lighting tech people really understand the value of those are pretty ship programs. You know, everybody says these these pains to you. They they pay their respects to the idea of people who work for a living instead of going to college because they know that college people tend to vote democrats.

But at the same time, like, how are those people going to get to a boost IT? The regulation isn't always enough. You like a apprentice programs can really help people a lot and also can build our manufacturing workforce, occam education, stuff like that, will they really like? And biden was all in on that. You know, like, so what will the what will the approach to be for that? I don't know.

I wish biden was five years Younger or ever. Like, I, I was a great candidate. You know like I I think he appeal.

He like thread the middle in in a unch to interesting ways. And it's it's really unfortunate that IT played out for the democrat the way I did with they. Not only could they not get by in, but they could sort of do the first principles. Let's let's get the best you candidate possible.

And I made a big mistake when he picked commons VP, which was done for identity politics tics purposes, right? Know he promised to pick up black woman. And IT was either commonly heroes like sty abms, whatever.

Obviously, Michelle obama is the correct pic. But but yeah. So you know, IT IT was stupid. IT was a product of twenty twenty workers. And democrats are still paying the Price heavily for for the woke era.

But at least this is an opportunity for reset, a strong opportunities reset. And so let's talk about that reset. If how do dams read group right now? What do you think should be the the strategy, the issues to focus on the type of candidate? How do we, you know, make twenty, twenty eight very different? But and you not just the material.

Is that right? Like know where do we go from here? I saw i'm actually .

i'm in the middle writing this post to unfortunately, it's not going to come out as early as I wanted because I have all these doctors points today. But yeah, I sort of come out this evening, I think, but I basically have have two sort of less immediate lessons from the election. The first one is appealing to, especially his panic voters and asian voters as racialized blocks is a feeling strategy.

The idea that there's unified latino community that you have to talk to and and approach with sort of protein o ethnic targeted policies is broken. I saw exit poll showing the trump won a solid majority of his panic men in america, fifty four percent according the washing post example, but which is probably the best example you are going to find. And although exit ples are the limitations of 宝， but winning, actually winning his panic men in the country, that makes you think about the the republican opposition fear of immigration, like who's coming over.

It's a panic. Of course it's their kids. I'll be able to vote. And how of them? Movie women bobble, but like this sort of fear of hesba ic man, is this invading army?

Military age men like you just won those military age men bra like that, who vote for you and like that. That was the big shift. In fact, Harris, one more White vote, a larger percent of the White vote. And by IT was the big shifts among, and to a smaller degree, in black boats. And of course, asian votes, but with a smaller number. But manic vote was a big shift IT with this panic, men won this for trump, you know? And a despite, and like put a rican shift of massive to trump despite, like the stupid comedian called that a garbage .

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And IT is IT because there was just more socially conservative. You think is the why did is panic ship shipped?

I mean, social and conservative is one thing. I think that his panics vote as individuals, and we democrats stop treating them as individuals. Conservative values are one aspect of people's individualism.

I personally believe in traditional marriage. I personally believe that a man can become a woman or whatever, right? Like they.

They have these values and you can yell them, say it's anti L G B T Q. But more to the point, it's individualist. IT is what people believe as individuals and then also economic mobility.

So I think you've seen massive economic mobility by hispanic people. Economic research suggests that his panic can comes across the generations are converging with White incomes. It's only continued immigration of poor people that keep the average lower, right? If you look at core wise, you see that, that panic incomes are converging toward the White average.

And if you if you win immigration from that america, sort of how you'll see the sion in the average too because his spanx are very upright mobile. There's been a massive, massive explosion of his panic. Starting businesses, high growth entrepreneurship, sure, but but small businesses, which are the majority of businesses by far overwhelmed majority businesses, starting a small country is small local business.

And David just been on a chair. And then his panic home, moerner creates a rising education, rose like heisler ics are following the success sequence of the american dream. And if IT is rewarding them with increased income across the generations, speaking english basically by by the second generation, but especially about the world, like people also speak english, you know.

And so the the democrats have completely botched this. They completely ignored this economic success and conservative values. They've ignored IT because theyve insisted on treating his panics like a race ized minority group. They have insist on treating his panics, how black people have been treated throughout american history, and the fact that they wanted to give them goody's like you know D I benefits or special government contracts or whatever, that's a boobie prize in american life.

That's what that's that's not even plan b that's like plan like dear after like that's that's that's what you get when there's there basically some like barriers that are so hard to overcome that they will never be like they will be overcome in the in the near future that sort of racal zed pro hipster discrimination. That's what democrats are offering. And I think that, that deeply popular.

I think you saw this by, you saw the the, the the word latte inks, or I guess it's supposed weve finance, the latinic mountain of fuck, because, you know, this word is stupid or prancer. However, I feel so. But the word attacks, the more ismania people heard this, the less they voted for democrats.

IT caused a statistically ally significant shift during the republicans to hear this term. And the people there's zo, it's because it's an LGBT custom. No one knows that.

No one knows that why the x is there. They they hear that. They hear racialized exclusion.

They hear someone treating them as a member of a block instead of as an individual racial block. And you can hear this in the way democrats constantly talk about communities. The latino community know.

Kala released her economic plan for the latino community. But latino are not a community. They are individuals.

They are part of the american community or the local communities in which they result. They reside, you know, the hideo like community, like, you know, the santa ono community. That's a communities more or less america's community.

The lino community is not really community. And treating IT as a community singles out and others and excludes people. If you want to use some academic sociology language here, IT tells you you're a, you know, you're not part of the american mainstream.

You're not you don't stand on your own two feet. You stand as a as you exist as a finger or a tentage of a racialist block that's bigger than you and that's just the way your life is. And then, you know, maybe we will give your racial block some goodies if democrat win.

I don't think that most of bank people want to be treated like that. I want to think about that. That's not the story that they came here for.

Their ancestors came here for their grandparents and parents came careful. That's not the story that they came over the american dream for individualism, which includes ideological individuals and which which includes individuals m of success. So I think that democrats need to start thinking about the spending.

And agents, by the way, know, I know there's stop and hate boba, and I know that they need to start things in these people's individuals. Ethnic politics come emerge from threat. The reason you saw asian ethnic politics kick out a bunch of progressives in the bay area was because asian people were collectively and threats from crime.

Absent that threat, asian people would vote much more individualism ally. And they do you know there is an asian shift to d trump, although it's harder to see because this fewer people to people. But there is an agent shift of trump t and a lot of IT was overcrowded.

You've seen asian voters worrying about crime. And but then you know asian people as much as suspending people have and starting from a higher base, have succeeded economically in america. Not all.

Obviously some people don't. But but overall, that's the story. You know, the american dream. I remember in twenty fifteen, the university of of conference issued guidance to faculty saying that you should never tell your students that amErica is the land of opportunity because that minimized at the history of racial exclusion, bobbi law, and that this bulch amErica is the land of opportunity.

I can prove IT with numbers, right? And i'm i'm fighting about like for for you know african immigrants to LED of opportunity. And you know it's it's democrats have gotten away from that story of of do IT yourself upward mobility.

So so essentially you encouraging encouraging upward mobility in our existing system, you know helping people start a business. Now I think that commonly here I did support small business, but that didn't make IT through the noise. You know, he talked a lot about small business for economic policy plans, had a lot of stuff for small business.

But I think that, that hasn't necessary made IT. That hasn't cut through the noise. Metal take, metal take a long time before people know that if you're a small business person, democrat on your site.

And so I think that sort of support for you know so don't treat people like a permanently disadvantaged racialized group. Treat them as people who can succeed on their own two feet because it's it's largely true. You know, obviously, black people may be be different because there's there's at least black people who aren't decended from recent immigrants.

Aos, if you will, do you one of these neologisms that's different? And so so black people still vote ninety percent for for democrats, right? Although drop me a little bit of in the rose of black men, I think something like maybe twenty percent of black men did vote for trump. And then like seven percent of black women of three percent, some ridiculous is small number a black women voted for trump. But then some black meant is, so there were some inroads, but overall, largely, black people do vote still as a homogeneous racial block in support of the democrats.

And so democrat messaging to black people has to be different than their messaging dispended s and agents, basically, should their message for black people should be different than a different mess, there should be a special message for black people, then a message for for overall people, you know, including black people, but including everybody. So that's the best I can come up with because, you know, of course, when you have a minority like by people who votes ninety percent democratic, that's party your base, right? You have to cater that base in some way, but and that's unavoidable, right? But then at the same time, that can't be your dominance.

And you can't just cookie cut or copy that approach and apply that every quote, quote community. And so that's that's my first suggestion. First, before you go to number two, what do you think about like my full of crap peer?

Well, I just want to echo that from personal experience. My mom is his band. You e's a colombian immigrant from colombia, and her siblings moved to miami, moved to florida, and they're all trump them in their family are all all chop supporters.

One of them actually works for the R N C. On beale of the expansion division and so and doing communication stuff. So they would echo everything you just said. And IT IT, IT seems like what you're recommending is accelerating the shift from sort of in a race based sort of edo identity politics to more class based approach and in a focus on economic opportunities. Is that I could a good summary of where you think the party needs to go.

I say class based, yes, but then but a lot democrats, a lot of times when they hear class based stuff, they think about the unions. You know support unions support has been massively roading. You know some unions refuse some prominent unions refuse to support the democrats.

Union sports been rooting and organize. Labor is not a big force in the private sector. Most unions are government unions.

That means their educated professionals. They are not the real work in class. And this is the most annoying thing that i've encounter from professor als, progressive culture. Well, maybe not the most, knowing that among the most annoying is the educated professionals have started treating themselves as the working class and believing that they're the working class because they are in a union, a government union, a teachers union, a graduate student union for god sake like that, doesn't make you work in class. The fact that are in the union, and in fact fd r was opposed to government from any reasons, but when they're not really working class.

And so I mean, to the degree that we have you going to have a working class, the the private sector is mostly non unionized and the unions that exist are often more skilled workers in some sort of small protected classes of of private occupation like duckworth or something, right? That's not a government union, but IT is a there are monopoly there that make IT a little bit like a government. The the overall like private sector unitization amErica mostly died.

And I mean unionization, the car industry would die if we stop billing out the car industry like there's almost nothing left. There are private and union ation democrats have just really gone in hard for unions because they think that's the working class. But this is another manifestation of of the attempt to treat people as members of groups instead of individuals.

The idea that unions are your key to your labor community, if you will. And so the working class, you know, back in marches day IT was clear what what I meant to be. Working class, right?

It's IT meant you works in factory, your poor labor, usually in in the countryside, who goes and works in one of these. Like dirty, dangerous, looping factories of the eighteen hundreds. That's what I meant.

And there were a lot of those people, and there were pretty genius class, like you could just classify them, say, look that those guys, you know, those factory workers from the countryside who came worked in these orrible sweatt shops like, yeah that he was a class nowadays and manufacturing increasing automated. And you know the diversity of occupations has has grown. Most people working services.

And what that means means anything from like an email job to like IT for some consultancy or like you know for the I don't know anything medical stuff, obviously be a receptionist to cashier somewhere or you know all these these service industry occupation, these far flung you a waiter, obviously it's trying to think of of cool examples, but yes, boring. These are all very different from each other, though know people's lives are different. Their incomes may be somewhat similar, at least in the same bulker, same general region, the same bulker, but like they're not as unified a class.

The idea of class politics is we can still do class politics, but it's not that's not a silent people don't think of themselves as I am labor. I am the workers the way they did in one thousand, nine and thirty. It's not like i'm a factory worker who works in a heavy industry plants and know i'm ready to lay down my tools and strike like that's just not how most people are.

Any more of the people we call working class. Working class become a name for a region of the income bell curve or sometimes are a references to people who didn't go to college. But people who didn't go to college don't feel kincher with each other.

And you didn't go to college, I didn't go to college. They are great college. You didn't go to go blue.

Not like that's not how things work. And so so like these aren't classes. So so I think class focus politics is not necessarily the way you want to think of this either.

I think basically you want to think about a like being pro free enterprise and and pro you know sort of individual initiative success by block IT easily pro individualism. And I think that a lot of the successes of liberalism is opposed to progressive ism. So I think we start realize there's a distinction.

Which of those do things? I think that a lot of this came from individualism. So with the civil rights movement, obviously, the famous mark love of king line treat you based on the content character, not the color skin. Bob ba, that was the message of anti racism.

If you're anti racism in the seventies, he meant you should have the opportunity, stand in your own two feet, be instead of being treated as a, as a racing, as a member of a racial block, you should be treated as an individual and that morphed into, oh, actually, you should be treated as a member of a preferred racial block and get all these racial block bonuses. No, we've got a right the first time, like the the individualism of the civil rights movement was, I think, key to its widespread acceptance. When we need to go back to that individualism, the idea that racism is should be treated not as a thing we need to harness for good, but as a bad know, like racial discrimination is not a forced to be harnessed for quota anti racism.

Racial discrimination is actually just something that keep people from being able to live lives as individuals. And we need to reduce IT. I'm writing all this in my post. It's going to be sort of a long round will .

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yes. So I hear that on on a sort of rededicate s or spirit al level. Where do you think that river hit the road in terms of policy, in terms of for the democrat sort of plan going forward? You think there's any major changes on a policy level? Or do you think you know it's mostly on a on a redirect and spirit al level?

I think that, that commonly have has had the basic had the basic policy stuff, had the basic ingredient ents of a successful policy program. And I think that people don't care about policy programs that much. Look at reagan.

Reagan talked about getting the government off your back. Did he actually shrink government spending? now? He did not.

He cut taxes and then raised them again when deficits got too high. But then, but he didn't. He didn't get government off your back.

He appointed some deregulatory minded people, or some people who were inclined to enforced regulation, more relaxed, right? He did that. But he did not actually deregulate anything like he didn't.

Carter did all the big deregulatory actions, right? Carder regulated trucking and rail and natural gas and coal and oil and electricity and beer, actually, which is why we have all these microbes, es, and you, all these things. Carter deregulated these and banking.

Carter deregulated finance. Read didn't regulate shit. He just appointed some people who are a genuine friendly to regulation by temperament, but he didn't really deregulate regular, just talked about this. And I think that this didn't break through the Harris, partly because you didn't have enough time and partly because IT wasn't a big enough IT wasn't an important enough message.

I think that americans are not their chief problems, are not insufficient support for small business or whatever vocational education training out to know that's not their mean problem in life. It's something you want to do. It's good, but it's not going to be sufficient, right? Or housing in bi stuff that's good, you need to do IT.

I think that message will resonate increasingly breakthrough. But you know you're going to need you're going to more than that. You're going to need a coherent story.

Rhetorical c matters more than policy. I think in presidential politics, national al politics, I think at the city level, urban politics, you pay people out, you pay out favorite groups. That's often unfortunate, although sometimes that lets you get things done.

But it's often, unfortunately, as we intend to go, have found. But but I think that at the national level, you need to tell the story about what kind of amErica you want to create. And the democrats basic story is broken.

The democrats basic story of, you know, racialized exclusion that Sarah is broken. We, we could be a Better country. But, you know, we need to tell the story about how to how to be a Better country. I'm not saying this countries perfect.

I'm saying that the things that are annoying people in their daily lives, and also, I think, by the way, the other big lesson is going to say we need to learn from this election, is that people care about inflation more than an imployment. Unexpected inflation reduces real wage and reduces real incomes. IT makes you poor.

And IT does that to everybody in the country. Whether unemployment only affects a small number people. Even in depression, even in the great recession, unemployment on the affected ten present of people and under employment, six percent more, right? But ultimately, I think that, but, you know, inflation piece the people off, because IT just hurts everybody.

And, you know, IT causes uncertainty. Ty, in a way, unemployment feels like something you have more control over. You don't have control over your grocery Prices, right? You have maybe you work really hard.

You can keep your job, you can avoid the layoffs, maybe you have some control, but then but then in with inflation, there is nothing you can do. It's just it's an act of god. You know, it's like you have no control.

So I think that people don't like that lack of control just like that's why people are more afraid to flying their plane, no than to drive a car, right? Because car maybe it's more dangerous to drive in a car then to take an airplane, but people feel like they have control like i'm a good driver. I'm not going to wipe out on the road.

I'm not going to drive drunk. I'm not going to fall asleep with the wheel, right? Like i'm i'm going to personally avoid the things that so I think that inflation make people mad because I lost control and people inflation make people mad because of it's much broader impact.

But I think that at this point, what's interesting is that in economics, there's this idea that we need to treat a point of inflation and a point of unemployment as the same thing. Like you just add these two things together, it's called a loss function. We need to start thinking about, for political purposes, inflation being more damaging than unemployment.

We have to wear about inflation more than unemployment. Maybe tighter money is is going to be important. And of course, I worry about this with the guards to trump, you know, whether trump could force the fed to lower interest rates. And if shadow president ellis listening to this, I really hope that he stops trumps attempt to force interest state flower, because that's gonna a shit.

If you does that, the main macroeconomic mistake, the natural predator of of authoritarian regimes, by the way, is macroeconomics like the way you lose power? Is you scrip the economy and then you're in trouble or do want to almost feel pray to this. And so having to like raise interest rates the whole lot, obviously this destroy like chavez M A do whatever.

But then yes, so so watch out for that macroeconomics. yeah. I think that democrats need to be able to tell a positive story about what what could be Better about this country.

Obama told a positive story. IT wasn't just, you know, hope is just a word. It's something you can put on a poster.

But hope for what? Well, I think that, you know, for some people, obama, symbolic, represented the hope for sort of racial healing. And I think that that was part of the story, but I that was not all the story.

Getting out of the iraq war was a huge part of obama's appeal. That's why he beat hilly in the primary in two thousand eight because he was against the iraq war and he was going to get us out of that war. That was really important to people.

Afghanistan wasn't as important, whatever ukraine. People don't didn't care about IT. But like, but but iraq was a big deal.

And and people wanted out of that war. And and he got them out. And so the other thing was the great recession.

So so there been a financial crisis, right? There was the economy was absolutely crashing to two thousand eight. And IT was obviously due to the finance industry.

Obama was going save us into a large extended did baillot really saved, just people don't want to hear that, but the bailouts save america's economy. Fed stuff saved us. You stimulus ped IT helped a bit.

IT wasn't big enough bit, helped a bit, you know. So between all that stuff, obama, obama didn't save us, but obama helped us a lot. And we ended up having a lost four years instead of a lost decade, right? Good outcome.

Obamas rewarded with three election. And I think that that people memory hold that and think obama is an identity politics president. But he was the reason people elected obama was not because he was black.

People celebrate to the fact that he was elected in spite of being black, which people had thought would be a barrier before that, you know, he broke down that barrier, but he didn't break IT down just by being black. He broke the barrier by getting inside of the iraqis and by promising to save america's economy from a crash. That was what there was hope for, hope for the economy, hope for peace.

That was what hope was about. Obama, his first term government, is a conservative. He set a bunch of conservative, retorted, and then he really cracked down immigration.

You know, mass deportation. People know that this first term, obama deported four hundred thousand people. Did you know that?

I didn't even know that? I didn't. I did. Obama is the most inspiring president as a speaker that at this i've seen in my lifetime, I remember when he got elected I was a sort of I was in college and and miche again and you know sprinting to the diag to celebrate because he he had captivated me. He got me into politics. I haven't seen inspiring ing speaker like like that sense yeah and .

that's that's rare. You can't just say nominate the best speakers because they're few in farber ring, right like he was a great speaker bit but you know Kennedy was a great tour but but they're kind of rare, right? I guess regime was pretty good people like these speeches but then yeah so like those are those are pretty rare figures, I think.

And you want to omino them when you get them right. You want a prize speech making because those soundbites really travel, I think, including in the tiktok age. But so the substance of the stories important and it's not we get confused between policy substance and story substance. Reagan didn't actually get the government off your back, but he said that's what he was about. He had rtc ical substance, story substance, if not policy substance.

And I mean, part of the reason he didn't actually do this because democrats, congress locked, but he had he had story substance that was a substance of story about, here's that your life will be Better and simply, a laundry list of policies does not actually cut IT. You know, bill clinton ton had a very strong story about what he was going to do. I was a kid, so I don't rumble entirely clearly, but his basically bill clinton story was that you're all gone to get jobs as computer programmer.

The economy is going to work for you. This, this is your future. Your future is a computer program. We're we're going to baLance the budget. We're going to do all the economic stuff that then are are fundamental economy.

Strong technical timm that was bilk linn's story, competent management of the macroeconomy, so you can go become a computer programmer or are you to start a business, whatever. But then and then, yes. And then bill clinton was going to fix the deficit.

That was a big thing. People don't remember that he was. He was the austerity candidate, actually. Roster is there. Ross pro got a significant chunk of the vote heat.

Ross puro was an even bigger sterility candidate, and probably ross road and take more votes from clinton than he did for bush because he was said they were both about austerity, right? Actually, you know, George hdb bush would love to do austerity, but had become the deficit candidate because regan polices were deficit policies, and h hw. Had to defend them.

So he became the deficit, unwillingly became the device IT candidate, even though he was a fiscal conservative himself. So that election was about austerity is like we're going to get rid of the deficit. You know we're going to and then of course, bill clinton later cp ign on ending welfare as we know IT bobbi. Which he did under republicans. Sure, but he did. But then basically the the message of optimism was not just like you don't just put hope on a poster, right you you tell people what to be optimistic about like i'm sure that many the kids in the diag e in two thousand eight were optimistic because of the symbolism of a black man getting elected meant that amErica was at post racism races and done guys.

And i'm starting to think they were less wrong than we have said, because in a deeply racist country with trump, t really be winning his panic men, would we really in in a country defined by racial conflict? Would we really, you know, where a firm of action has been cancelled in bobo h, would we really see substantial shifts of nonWhite voters to Donald trump despite, like you know, comedians joke about the rec s an ireland of garbage, whatever? Would we really be seeing that in in a country whose main conflicts of racial in nature? Maybe not, i'm not going to a save.

Racing does exist. AmErica is a problem. But but the progressive narrative of the twenty tens of the late twenty tens, you know, the post obama period, the progressive narrative of that period was that racism was still was structural and is basically pervasive in american life, like this unrepressed force that just oozes out of every poor and exists in every milk and crane with american life.

When we've gotten like send out the you in brim Candy types to like expunge IT in the D. I. People to just expunge IT from every point of amErica line.

And I don't think that, that is going to I think that can cut IT. So good. Is your candidate .

on on the left that that excited you that you think represents this like doing? Shero is interesting candidate in terms of personnel. How do you think about that going forward?

Ah I mean, I think SHE pears an obvious consideration and I think that everybody thought that he was that that Harris didn't choose him because of lefties who didn't like a prois formerly prois rail jew's guy. Again, somewhat pro is real, less empty as well, jewish guy, you know, on the ticket and the left tee's forced come of him. I'm starting to think he turned her down.

I'm starting think he said they offered him and he said, no, maybe I don't know about that. Maybe not, but I think maybe he would have turned IT down because now he has a chance to go for walls. Is his toast? Probably, but but trip or actually has a chance.

And so maybe he's that guy like he he he has a sort of obama like speaking style. I don't know if he's quite as inspiring, but then and he also gets things done. You know you repair that collapse high way, really quite so. And you know, in is a crucial swing states. I think people will be looking at superior for sure.

People be looking at Gavin, do some given new some needs to craft a message that is not just like I will baLance the competing special interests of california a but if given some can come up with an idea of what is about whitmire visibly is going to be a person that they look at. So there's actually a decent number of people. A lot of these people were sidelined from consideration in twenty twenty because they were White eyes, right? People didn't want a White.

I maybe they sort of want to book this because is gay White guy. But identity politics really took over. And the reason comment was select is because biden promised to select the black one. It's a identity based that needs to go. But now I think democracy, me think king, let's get a White man still.

I didn't be based, but at least less like like picking White men as White man dumb to right but but at least i'll consider why me but then, you know, democrats have a fairly deep bench, I would say, and republicans honestly don't. You know, trump is a singular figure, I don't know, hand the other people are about j events beyond tech community and then most republicans are sort of not. You know, there are there are old schools, fire breathing conservative types who maybe you're little Better in touch with the less educated people of amErica and certainly buying to some of the same like pod guest bullshit, but but definitely are not the same kind of like randa scientists kind of lot, right?

Greg abbot, I don't know, doesn't inspire a lot of people. So so we're and then the trumpet, the people who explicit fall on the trump get like mac gates you know and mtg and all these people like these are obvious like creeps, which is what the reason I don't like trump, the pull, all the worst people is orbit and then you've got, I don't know, and the guys like dan kencho on tom cotton and these sort of like, you know, those those are not aligned with the trump camp. So I don't know, know the democrats have a deep bench because there are a strong party there, a unified party.

And as a strong party in unified party, they need to change their fundamental message. Identity politics gotto go. Inflation got to worry about that.

But I think democrats will have a new biden did actually beat inflation and it's going to take people while to realize that if trump raises inflation again, democrats have chance and they'll be like hope for low inflation, right? Like remember biden, he beat inflation. Trump raised IT against trump raised inflation. I think that could that could really hurt republicans. I think that unless shadow president in line and restraining trump may do things that incase in station a lot.

Let's go back to this prompting of if we could tell if if state the shadow president elon, is is listening, we talk what what could we put in his year to tell trump we talked about, you know, interest rates. what? What are the other things? Of course we can talk about terrorist m, we can talk about you don't deport people of the things that you think are most important thing to you.

Yeah so so obviously, infrared rates can be forced to lower. Inflation will Spike you deregulation, i'm sure he's already do that. Focus on that housing deregulation that's going to be important.

Land use focus on nipa, you know, not just not just whatever. I mean, obviously space ex has been nipped before, so so nursing nipa would be really useful for shaw present you want to do? Let's see high still immigration, it's got to be important and that's know yeah I think I think that maybe racial depolarization ation will make republicans is less worried about that.

But elan certainly exist in the tech business that knows how important skilled immigrants ZARA america's technological stuff. So that's that's I think what what chat president elan should should do all that, whether we will or not is another question. I think that you know we like to think that iran is a very business focus guy and and he still that he thinks about business.

But then I think that to some degree, he's ut very caught and cultural worst stuff. There's once you've made two hundred billion dollars like you move on to the next round of mazes, hierarchy to self accusation, which we've learned the means ship postal. And I think a lot of elan's behavior in politics have been driven not necessary by like overregulation of village businesses, whatever, although that certainly didn't have right.

But I think a lot of us is just cultural worst stuff. I think his kid is trans, you know, he's he's mad about that. He's mad about a lot of stuff, mad about weakness.

And and I think a lot of a lot of his actions will be cultural or related, which trump is totally greece with and and then know I also think, shut up prison elon may have a shelf life like unless trump dies in office very soon and jd vands takes over in which the shadows sit in on could remain but I think that trump is not gonna lera at present time for very long and as long as he live. So I think that shaw present in on may have a shelf life here. So I think it's in the first year. We're really gna matter a lot.

We talk about how the the clinton election was that was no what the major word is, austerity. The obama election, one major theme was iraq. What do we think looking back at this election, the major story will be that guided so so many voters for for chop is or appeal of bookers. Is that immigration?

And is that something else? I mean, immigration inflation. Other two things say.

yeah.

immigration and inflation are the two things, are the two those are the two big things. I think. And I don't know, you know, not a political scientists. I don't know that that I I don't know that I can tell you definitively if that what matters people may be using those as proxies for being upset about culture wars.

Know people may just use that as proxy for not like a common areas as a person or then just or just the you lingering anger ver weakness or maybe that those really matter a lot you like. I think if you just look at the the polls, immigration, inflation dominate what everybody says is the most important issue in those people voted for trump. I think that inflation had reduced a lot in civilians by the time of election.

They left a bad taste people's mouth. But I think IT the the silence of IT was far reduced. But I think that you immigrations got to be a big one.

So I think that that you know, democrats have to to pivot to encourage, you know, encouraging legal immigration and then and then being and I like they've got a fixed the silent thing. And fortunately there the trump is sort of created opening for them to do that because he hasn't really yet proposed to fix the asylum law. That is the root cause of all this.

He's just taking executive actions to start to stanch the flow of the people across the border. But he hasn't really he hasn't really addressed the fundamental rule. The problems of democrats could maybe flanked by doing that, but I think ultimately what the democrats story is going to a be in two thousand twenty eight will be based on whatever trump does, this a mistake, if trump makes big mistakes.

And in trump is an old guy and he has some dumb ideas and he surround themselves with a lot of the worst people. If trump makes big mistakes, such as a return of inflation, such as crashed and economy, some other way, such as stoking sort of some sort of mass conflict fighting, trump spends whole time like fighting with the military, you know, or trying to like, change the electronic systems so nobody can vote or whatever. Like if he does these things, the people will be angry about those democrats can run on a reaction to those things, just as obama ran on a reaction to the financial crisis in iraq war.

Just as the clinton ran as a reaction to do is just as trump ran as a reaction to inflation, immigration, right, or the, you know whatever, like people run just as as regan ran as a reaction to like overbearing government and inflation and things like that and the sop union. So and and also is the possibility we might see a world war, in which case all these things are moved. And we talked about out on another .

represent just so that we end on a more, more optimistic note, although that is a good, good clipping. Her, I just want to send and we can do IT epsilon this two. But let just say word about a couple minutes about same tesco's because there was a we foot the supervisors IT seems like there was A A big moderate win last night and maybe we should have a good friend Michael lie, or someone .

a lamu one, my, my, I one. We had a blamor mood fundraisers at my house.

amazing. Should people be we at? Why should people be excited about what? What changes do we expect to happen?

Now I think I could possibly get us a really good .

yes to that amazing that it's do get chance oh.

that be great. Get a chance of us yeah or yeah. Or at least definitely such an agrawal who is another like sort of college friend of mine who runs grasp anyway, people are pissed at the progressives and they kicked out the impressed, and they kicked IT like they gave iron pest in the boot chain, lost like a bunch of, I think jackie fielder is the only real major progressive Victory on the board.

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