#1434 Anthony Pompliano & Phil Rosen | Bitcoin & Stocks LOVE Donald Trump Right Now!
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What's up, guys? Today we ve got an awesome episode with fill. Rose and fill is the cofounder and editor in chief of opening bell daily. In this conversation, we talk about the new trump presidency is hero cks. What's bitcoin doing and how is your investment portfolio to be affected in this conversation?

I do my best to unpack what I think gonna, which I think are going to how I see investors to themselves to ensure IT from trump. And then we talk about some of the risks, including well, inflation come back or not, all of that in this episode will fill. So sit back, relax and hear us out of Anthony poplin o runs pump investments.

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Okay, so trump t just one in a landslide against Harris. And I want to start with what he's about to inherit in the financial markets from the bide administration. Right now, we have bitcoin at a record high.

The stock market is at a record high, gold is near a record high, and bond Prices are crashing. With all of this said, um what do you make of the state markets that trumps about to walk into? If you go back and you .

look at the last fifty years, every single president except one is overseen a stock market and they went up during their ten years and entry Price really matters. So if you start with a low Price in terms of when you take over the president on stock market, it's obvious ly much easier for you to go higher.

Now what I will say is the reason why the stock market is at all time has the reason why biton is at all time high is because people are waiting for their anticipating trump to take office. So people are saying, let the good times roll. Well, i'm not wait for the good time to get here and then bitcoin or stock when everyone else has a figured out that the good time for coming.

And so I do think that in a weird way is kind of like, uh, he's a victim of his own success because everyone is predicting that he's going to be good for the stock market, good for bitcoin, good for financial assets. And so they start to position themselves in anticipation when he actually takes office, which will be in january, uh, he is probably gona still have record hide Prices and they're going to be higher than where they are right now. And so that just means is going to be even Better.

But that's not unique to him. If you remember when, uh, joe biden came in the office, some of the stock market index is right all time high as well. And so I don't think that this is necessarily something that is unique or uh, never happened before. It's just if you're gonna good for stock Prices, if you're going to be good for financial asset regardless where you start things that would go up into the right over the four years of your president.

Yeah, I think that's true. And a the bitcoin jump on election night was one of the crazier moves I i'd seen in a long time.

Lot more fun going up and what is going down?

Of course, a seventy five day right away. I think that's prety believable.

They say, stairs on the way up, elevator on the way down. That is fun on the way down, my friend.

Well, I think from everyone i'm speaking with now about bitcoin and stocks, everyone's very optimistic about these next twelve months here. Uh, something that suit out to me is this jump in born yields we've seen. And I think that's telling us that there are inflation expectations that are sort of creeping up and maybe the fed will have to cut rates less under a trumpet administration. Did you are looking into this at all?

So inflation is this kind of very weird thing because first of all, what is inflation today? Nobody knows. The C, P, I, number is wrong.

True flag tells you different number. Uh, if you look at money supply growth, that tells you different number. We don't agree on what the actual inflation rate number is.

And so immediately, the fed has put an impossible situation, which is look at a one of different data points and nobody knows whether the active or not and try to make a decision today, it's going affect the future. So I don't envy being in that role. The second thing that I would say is, uh, trumps policies which are very low growth, pro business, pro investment, yes, can lead to a consume inflationary pressures.

Now the beauty is that if you actually deregulate some of these industries, if you actually are pro technology, those can be deflationary forces. And so you can actually help to baLance out. Take artificial intelligence as an example.

If we see things like what clovio, which is a publicly traded company who has started to implement a lot of A I and our customer service department, and they say that they would ve reduced that, I believe, their customer service cost by forty percent if you're able to use the technology that artificial intelligence to create that deflationary pressure. Now all of a sudden, your pro growth policies actually can get negated out. And so you don't get that high inflation environment.

The number one thing a Donald trump can do to actually create massive inflation is to print money. And so if we have these huge fiscal packages, we we're going to go are going to spend a lot. That's a big problem.

But instead, what do we hear from the campaign so far and their campaign promises? So we going to do IT, but I interviewed how lta he's talking about. We're going to go slash five hundred billion dollars off of the annual deficit.

Is elon mos going to come in around the department of government efficiency? Then they're talking about using the government baLance to generate another, uh, one trillion to one point five trillion dollars of revenge so they can go and cut into that deficit again, maybe even get us into some sort of slight surplus. They're talking about trying to cut actual tax recedes.

Well, how do you do that? Well, maybe we need terrorists. S actually increase revenue and replace IT with.

What is that tax revenue as you start thinking about this is a machine. A lot of complexity. Things are interrelated. So if you take one level and pull let, you may affect somewhere else. So you got to understand that stuff.

But I do think that, uh, deflation from technology in particular is going to actually end up allowing for some of these pro goth policies. H that can really help to spur economic activity, regardless of whether inflation is one point five to two point five, three percent. What I do know is we are about to experience an economic explosion.

Donald trump, just by walking into the room, everyone starts thinking, money. He's gona fall from the sky. He's the this this entire career and the people who don't like him don't want that this conversation because they like to point to all this casino in bankrupt or this happened or whatever you got a guy who is worth approximated to seven billion dollars.

He has made an element amount of money for a lot of people over time. But why is IT that when he becomes the president, stocks rip? It's because people realize if disguise in control, if disguise in power, if disguise leading the american economy, things are going to go up.

In terms of asset Prices doesn't necessarily mean things get Better, right? Because if asset Prices are going up in the dollars being devalued, the people without investments there actually not getting Better right is are suffering at the hands that devaluation. But when Donald trump comes in, the power people say, if you hold investments, things, you're going to get good and that is before you ever implemented anything.

That's the part that I think people realized is like it's kind of your reputation proceed. Investors right now are trading on Donald trump reputation and they're saying this guy set in the stock market higher. Remember, back in his first a presidency, he was tween stock market Prices almost on the dealer week basis.

He was talking about the he was tweet at the central bank, tell them to devalue the currency or strength in the dollar. It's such like this guy thinks of markets. And one of the critique of them was he equates the strength of the stock market as the strength of the economy.

The stock market is not less is a piece of the economy. And so you get into this yourself, if what's going to trade on reputation? He got deliver right, because if he doesn't deliver, people are going to be nett long.

They're going to be out there ready to take risk. And he doesn't deliver a lot of people. You lose a lot of money and therefore your reputation takes a hit, right? People stop believing that you're the pro business, pro investment guy and a kind of run ravels from there. I don't think that will happen, but IT is a risk.

So one criticism i've seen an obama speak about was he gave trump this great economy, this great market. All that stuff. And I think we will hear critics say that this time around cause trump is walking into uh, strong G G D P.

growth. You know everything is going up right now and the job market is solid ish. I wouldn't say it's determination, but it's solid ish. And the fed has already started cutting grades to those people who would say, well, trumps got got an easy path, ford, because everything's good.

What would you say? Well, right, when you think that it's gonna easy and good time, you know, are inevitable. Obviously, that's when you get the risk of a downturn.

Now the nice thing is um as an investor who is not worried about thirty years from now but simply saying under Donald trump was gona happen, Donald trump is not going to have another four years as president after he sees through this term so we know that Donald trumps political career ends four years or now that means he is innovate where's good or bad to devalue the currency, suppress interest rates, pump asset Prices and walk out the door and four years with all time high stock Prices, create tons of wealth on paper for gn investors, and say that, everyone, look what I did, regardless of what the long term impact is. Now that unique, Donna trump, because every politician, pretty things, things that way. I just hate, what's my time? How do I walk out the door with a good legacy? But I do think that is an investor. Do not underestimate the fact that trump knows this is his last term and so he is likely to do things that are going to lead or increase the odds of higher asset Prices when he leaves.

Well, that's a very good point that I I have not thought about. This is the four year deadline from oran.

He's got four years as president. He's also seventy seven, seventy eight years old. So I mean, the guys got energy for days, so maybe he's got ninety ninety five hundred. Imagine world were down one hundred and ten, I don't know, but it's not twenty five. He's not forty.

And so I just think that there is this a kind of natural human incentive system that takes over where you are in your late seventies, if you know only have four years, if you run your entire campaign on, I am going to bring back the american economy, i'm going to make an affordable and going to bring down inflation. I want to create you homes that you can uh, get access to him and to shot the border. I M A, do these things? Did you go all out? right? It's like the last two raw.

And so um I think that's where people say, okay, well, if you do that then is inflating going to be a problem? Um the wild card there is, can you actually use the deflationary forces of technology? You think of spaces and how deflationary IT is for cost. IT used to be twenty five, thirty, thirty five, fifty million dollars, depending on the different space, have drop the cost in the early days, like six million hours.

So to me, it's ironic that trump has essentially l an entire campaign on fighting inflation because inflation hit nine percent under biden and trump said we're bringing IT back down however, his critics are very uh you know they keep pointing to his inflationary policies uh, terrify uh, deporting undocumented immigrants. If you add to take an over under on whether inflation was higher or lower a year from now, where would you go?

Well, inflation are already elevated, so have used no C, P, I, or core and cores at three point three percent. A, C, P, S at two point four percent. And so it's very elevated. So I just come back down the kind of their targets that, that would be lower. Um what I do think is a an important detail is when trump left office, even good prepare delic.

Uh he had been in an office for three years and he had had a great economic policy in terms of stacks were going up, everything was strong and he's tweet about IT everyday and inflation was under two percent before the pandemic. And so you know it's kind of like look like we've seen this play before. We know what he did.

No, does that mean going to do IT again now? But to a lot of the critics, my first response to be you actually don't understand how inflation works because the same critics are usually the people who are saying inflation. They were telling us, don't worry, we're printing trillion and dollars by confliction is not coming right there.

The one who we're telling us like it'll be OK, it's the surprises go up and not come back down. The Prices didn't come back down. Inflation didn't come back down.

And actually the U. S. Dollar, twenty five percent of its purchasing power in five years. And so the critics might not understand how inflation works. And if Donald trump already did this for three years before the pandemic, and he didn't have high inflation, but he was slowed to get economic growth, I wouldn't be so a convinced that that means we absolutely you're going to get higher inflation.

Um and then if we do have higher inflation, who's the blame? Is that trump or is the fed the fed is that a fifty basis point cut? They um could be doing more throughout the end of the year.

Who who ends up being the blame impossible to point one or the other. And so it's more about the machine than anything. But my guess is that we do not see the high inflation that people are worried about the .

next wave months we just saw a few years of was a republicans trying to blame bit in foreign tion and then democrats blaming the fed. And I bet that will flip if we see high inflation.

And of course, hundred percent. And you know one of the interesting things is um life is all about paradoxes. And so the inflation reduction act was really the inflation creation act, right? You can to go to all these examples um but the truth is like who created inflation?

The fed and the politicians and so politics in general is very partisan. Are you read or are you blue right? Um no, actually the nine percent flag was red and blue.

There was both sides. They are both voting for the spending bills. They were both you know advocating for lower interest rates, etta, and so you get this explosion. But of course, if you're unna campaign, you verse me a good people look for me and american people when they delivered a resulting verdict last night.

So something interesting um about this landslide election was how critical the elect the betting markets were kelsi and ploy market. They were essentially calling the vote state by state, way ahead of traditional media. Um what did you make of that? You know, that sort of new a piece of the puzzle to this election.

Free market italy. M. S, again, right. Polls are both shit. Just call what IT is. Everyone's like all the polls, like do these people are literally just asking a bunch people their opinions and then coming up coach any proprietary model and look at our smart I am and seller careers over done.

She's the woman in iowa who know the death moon registered whatever she's ppos to be this great post to everyone was like, go SHE has uh, Harris said plus three three percent of points 啊。 Look at this, 然后 don't worry about the big red sweep， all this nonsense, whatever the emerson poll, the same people in the same area polling were at plus ten trump. So in a thirteen point spread, IT ended up being like a seventeen or eighteen spread because also was plus three and trumpeted up winning by fourteen, fifteen points.

So you are wrong. And so what is up happening is people always do this. You'll say that one time you were right and everyone else was wrong. You're genius.

What do you think this time? Something in investing there are people who got the housing trade right, where they shorted the housing market two thousand and eight. They haven't had a single big trade go since.

And people will still say to them, oh, here's the fame investor who got the housing market right. great. You should get credit for that thing that you got right. But let's not make the intellectual error of extrapolating that mean that you're always right. The prediction markets are much Better because they look at real time data and people are wagering capital.

And any time you get free market capitalism at play, IT is going to be more accurate because there is something that is painful on the other side, if you're wrong, skin in the game and cell or has zero repercussions for basically not knowing how to do a job. If you think about IT, right, how is that your entire job is to pull this one state and come out with IT and was crazy. Is is not like all I was plus three Harris and was plus one.

I was off buying in two points. Just take the real simple element review. You said he was gona win in trump one percent points.

All that matters just you are dead wrong and so come like economists who are like, oh, and october job growth going to go up after the visions are done is gonna negative growth. So your whole job is to spend all this time. Energy is such a to try to figure out our jobs going up or are they going down again.

Forget the magnitude of right or wrong, just like it's a zero or one. If you say one in a zero, I have a lot of questions, right? Like again, IT goes back to one of the things that trump s said again, regards whether you like him or not, that I thought was very smart of him on the campaign.

Tro, he kept saying I fired people who I didn't think we're doing a good job, who did they fire which a lot of people don't like that rhetoric because it's like all people lost their jobs that I get that right. There is like a social component to not wanning people you know, fuel economic pain. But the point is, do you hold people to a standard or night? And if you look at areas in the economy and in society that are losing trust, there is no standard that are being held to.

So if you look at the most extreme mainstream media outlet is activism are being held at the standard of journalism. If you look at the polestar name, one post, they got fired because they were wrong. If will get economist, it's a strategy.

What if you just making shit up? And so how is that? That they all look at the same data point and they come to these vastly different conclusions and sometimes the right sometimes they're not ah you know I looked my finger and put in the air.

And so when you look at that stuff, you're like that's not how the real world works. That is a fantasy, academic, theoretical world that is literally created by people who want to feel important. The real people take me or any other investor, I have an opinion.

I put money on IT. If i'm right, I win. If i'm not right, I lose money. Guess what? I do way more work than if i'm just partial ating about what I think something gona be because I don't want to lose money. And so if you have a system where there is no repercussions and there is no punishment for being wrong, whether IT is at your job is a personal of capital or whatever, of course, people are not incentivised to be as riga as possible, and they don't learn from their mistakes.

And so I think that's basically what we saw on this election, is that the people, the prediction markets such that had skin in the game and some sort of punishment, they ended up being more accurate, something with the big one, investors, they're buying bitcoins. They think charms going to win and they think bitcoins is going to go up. If they are wrong, going to goes down, they lose money.

Or here in my polls, I won't tell you my model. You know, let me do some simulations. Okay, here's gonna in crazy.

So I think someone who got a lot of heat on election night and the day after is this guy, uh, night silver, who is pretty famous as as a pollster or reporter, would have become for this model that he has and he said, right for the election we ran eighty thousand simulations. Harris, one like fifty point one percent of the time and is exactly what you're saying. There are no repercussions to him being wrong and I would I would guess he has no skin in the game to the election like that.

So here's the anything I actually really like um five thirty eight a blog that uh he created i've read for years I think very highly of IT. Um I think he's very smart. He recently came out with the new book is a nice neon Green cover called on the margin on read dad that was very good a tweet IT hey, this great book I read is super pokers big, big nate server.

Fan mate server, I think, suffered in this election from the classic data problem, bad data in to any model give you a bad output. And with the problem with polling is people lie to you if you go, when you ask them, what do you think Donald trump broke all the models because people say i'm undecided or on voting for Harris. And they go in the ballot box. They take out their nice number two pencil, and they scribble in a little bubble for Donald trump.

And they look over their solder, make sure other neighbors around, they take that ballot and they go put in the machine and they go home and they tell their wives, I voted for hairs and they didn't do IT and they going to go and they're going to talk to their friends and down couple weeks later, they going to have some beers and one of them to get too drunk and say, don't tuning well, but I vote IT for trump in the other one else say, no shit. So did die and next of the whole bar, so did I. And that's how you get the landslides, because nobody wants to admit to their neighbor, their wife, their kids, whatever.

But when push comes to shove, truth wins. And I think that is, honestly, what happened is, how is that possible that every single demographic voted more and trumped needed last time? How is that possible that he swang so many? They said, you've seen new york flipped.

He came pretty close. He came pretty damn close. Think of how what IT takes to do something like that. And so I I just think that if you are a poster, if you need so over whatever, we can yell, scream and say, hey, you're wrong, whatever, it's just a classic problem.

You, you you put bad dad in the model and is that you're fault? It's just you're asking about a topic that no one is going to tell the truth about. And so that's the case.

All the models are rendered useless. But guess where is not in a productive mark? Put money in. They gna lie when they, when they wait their money.

why? I think at this point, people really got their first example of how accurate this prediction markets can be and that makes me think um next election, we will have far fewer people relying on these polls and hopefully fewer media uh outlets will be relying on the polls. Um do you think is there a future where we do away with pulling all together? No.

I predict those can be more polls in the future, not less. Because all the people who are polling now, key polling, got lose their jobs. I got to give up their power, their influence.

They get ta go hang out their family vacation twice a year, and they get to everyone. I'm a poster and that Carries weight in a certain academic community, right? And there a lot of people say, you guys are so dumb, look wrong.

I want to be the Better polar. They go and they create. And so actually we're going to see to see more polls, not less polls.

If you go back at in history and you look, we actually have more polls today than we used to have more people as more information, as more tools, more access to the data, there's more people who can spend up their models. And so the fact that the poll, uh, kind of takers and creators were wrong means me. More poles, not less, you can create more noise.

But I also think that the internet can be fooled and the mainstream media support the business model. If every time a new paul comes out, you can write article, can talk about on T, V, get hope you was attention, email. Put another ad to a podcast of IT.

Follow the money. Follow the incentive, the prediction markets. I don't care that.

And so how is IT that little meet? Remember people talking about the fact this will can be a closely as people in this office? No, this could be a landslide vibes.

The vibes don't lie, but the post. And so why were they sense to be a close race? Do you really think that the haris administration dogs will be closure? Ies trump crack?

I don't of people really pay attention, but two days before the election he was up on stage and he said something to the effective i'm not supposed to say this no ah, we're doing real good. All the early vote strong. He was winning in all of them.

They knew that there was going to be a landfill. There was a report on twitter denied the election that they were prepared to accept the nomination, uh, as president of the win. After midnight, people were thinking, even I was taking, may be I can take to wednesday, thursday, maybe friday, whatever you.

They knew this on landslide, on clean house, not worried about IT at all, good vibes only. So if they knew, you tell me me that the mainstream media really thought was a neck neck race, or is a Better entertainment value to get everyone bought into this idea. That is a real cause.

When you Better watch tonight, you want to save to two o'clock. I need you to watch for eight hours because you never know how I might go. Come on, it's all business, which is fine.

Because, guess what, I watched them until, you know, twelve thirty IT was super entertaining. Guy hammer on graph was cool. But at no point was that closely.

They all wanted you to think. And so I think that we just have america. People got to remember it's entertainment.

That's fine. entertaining. So people watch the production markets bitcoin skin in the game, that's the signal can be fine.

So we're moving forward now under a trump administration, if you had ten thousand dollars to put in the first day he gets into office and you take IT out on his last day, what is that investment look like?

Triple ever D J, not just just getting just get IT just getting. Now I mean, look, uh, it's very hard to predict. Uh, if I had to guess, um you are likely to see uh, maybe three different types of assets.

Do well think big one is going to do very well. I think that small cat like russia, two thousand type you know index or whatever IT will do very well under uh, a adminstration did last time right? He's really h performed well there.

Um and then I think that, uh, technology companies are gonna do very well as well. And so um does that mean that you're gonna perform the best? Impossible to tell. But I think what you're gonna is you're going to see the regulation.

I think you're going to see uh, ftc get changed around a little bit where there's gonna able to um kind of in the middle and lower lot more M N A activity in centrum. Um I think you're going to see the small caps benefit from monetary policy, cheaper cap ital interest rates all. Um and then I think the bitcoin it's it's going up regardless.

And the nice thing about bitcoin is bitcoin isn't competing with the long tail of of cyphered assets. Bitcoin is competing with the traditional market. And so you know right now the coins up like our eighty eighty five percent year, the dates is going up a lot real fast today.

So who who knows um goals up like thirty percent this year. Goals have been a monster year but peanut s compared to bitcoin. And so bitcoin doesn't have to be Better than salona theory.

Anything else got to beat the traditional assets that never be like, wow, look, this big coin thing. And so I think that bitcoin went about performing most of the trail assets. But if stacks got twenty percent year, then they going goes up even twenty percent year, still fifty percent higher return each year than stocks. Pretty good.

So if I had to A I don't want to put you in a corner here, but I feel like you would say the same answer for every president. No matter who was common in office, he would still put that ten thousand dollars in the same places.

It's because the president doesn't matter as much uh, for the investment portfolio, people wanted to there are small things like trump would be Better for us two thousand harra but be continue to be successful regardless, right? And I continued to say into the election I ue, after election, the federal reserve chairman is way more important than who the president is for your investment point, folio your local city councils more important than who is in the White house.

For a lot of things in your local community, right? Housing was the present going to do executive water, some small town in north CarOlina and say, you guys got a little more housing? no. So to get to d regulate on a local level, right? And so I think that's the type of stuff that people you know is is fun to talk about, go to the warehouse.

But more importantly, I think, is we're going to come down to what is the fear serve to are they going to continue to cut interest rates? Are they going to continue to help the money supply grow? If so, currently, the basement assets like bitcoin gold stocks that are going up.

And I guess is that there will continue to devalue the dollar. And so just I paul toter Jones, I got gold, I got bitcoin, I got stocks. I got so commonly, I got no fixed income.

That's what he said. What I got. I got a little bit stocks. A big coin was right. Uh.

okay, well, on that, no problem. Thanks so much. Free time.

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