Post-Election Market Outlook (guest: Tony Greer)
28:29 Share

Welcome to the market haddo plus on patch arsa with our weekly thirty minute catch up interviews with past guests this week, we welcome back to the show one of our favorite, tony gray founder, T. G. mr. Great to have you back in the show to it's .

great to hear that my favorite show is one of your favorites and i'm one of your favorite guess. So that's really fun to hear men.

awesome. But I don't always glad to have you back. It's nice to have a fellow chartist come on there and use some crayons and we're going to know check out some of these charts.

okay. So listen, I I thought this was a great time to bring you on, uh, because you are always bullish. So there's something to talk about on the markets and we had this election, uh, it's been beaten to death um like a dead horse just in terms of the outcomes.

So we're not going to get into the election itself, but rather the outcome of IT. Now going into the election, there was huge anxiety, a lots of hedging, high volatility, lot of people in the wrong sectors, and when they became clarity as to the come of the election, suddenly the animal spirits just came alive and the market just shot higher. But IT was not just the S.

M P, but rather specific sectors within the S. M. P. That made these big moves.

And I feel that a lot of our listeners are asking the important question like what started what new trends have begun? And uh, are they sustainable? Is this is this a new trade? Or are is do we fade them? Let's just go through and talk about IT. So where do you want to start.

tone? Oh, man, you know, I would say we should start with the trades that, that started showing up as trump break out trades way before the election was decided, right? And a lot of people noticed that on october first, things changed in in the markets, right? I I read a couple of bloggers like alio show that notice that things change on the data. On that around then is when I was writing about that, the polls had just gone in trump s favor.

And coincidentally, right in the first week of october, there were three screaming breakouts within technology, software, cyber security and cloud computing, right? All three subsectors, literally like, just as trump took the lead on poly market, they broke out of a year long consolidation that, as you know, within a bull market, right? So I jumped into those as potential moves um that were per sensing a trump election because i'm over here betting on a trump election and you know sensing that that's what the markets are sensing and i'm betting on that in the markets.

And so i'm really sensitive to everything that's going on. And so getting into that break out and and staying on and managing the risk at the time was saying, okay, is this preempting like, you know what we're going to see and what's gonna be next? And then bitcoin broke out of the of the long consolidation pattern that I was in. And I guess middle .

a let's pull up that chart. I'm going to pull up the big coin chart here because like, uh, I mean, this was one uh one clear consolidation. Like at first, we we had a big ball market in two thousand and twenty three going into early two thousand and twenty four.

And then we had go through what was basically like almost a year long consolidation, like eight, eight months or whatever. IT was that just trading sideways. IT was left for dead.

Nothing was happening. And then, like you were saying, things started to happen in october, right? And I was already editing higher before that election. But uh, how do you see this now? Like what's what are your thoughts here about, uh, where this is going?

Well, so that that you know that was another one that you know i'm guessing is sensing a trump Victory. And you know, whatever that's going to mean his support, IT said. That one breaks out. I got clients into that at the end of october. And so you know now you starting to see the writing on the wall with the election and with a few things that the market finally legs up to a new high.

And so that you know that now you're on your toes for what's gona happen when the election hits the tape and all the real flood of money comes in, right? This this is just like, you know early markets telegraphing not massive volume, just markets kind of doing their thing. And as you know, a lot of times, markets are just waiting for excuse and they don't know what excuse IT is, but that's what the excuses, right? And things change and they go, so you get into those markets.

And then after the election, we saw, I think the most pronounced move was, to me, golbin sax gaping to five hundred dollars. That wasn't sane. That was mental, right?

That was like a statement, like market ism is out for now, okay, capitalism is in right the markets are saying, trust me, look who's going to make a bloody fortune in the trumpet administration with deal making and reassuring of U. S. Industry and a new energy policy and they are licking their chops and um they forget their new address and all the dress, eighty five broad street. I was going to say if they are not there anyway, that move was pronounced. Financials break out like a sun of a bitch, right? So now you're like all a sudden, you know you following leadership on the year and I was originally semiconductors and nobody else semis up forty eight percent on the year right explained now over said and this is this fascinates me um oh if if you see what what's in the race for the year now broker dealers I A I is the ticker they've caught up to semiconductors neck and .

neck on the year wow and so so these broker dealers, um obviously there's it's been a great trade. I mean, we can look back and say they've done great.

But the bigger question is for someone that's listening is the question is, is is there any gas left in the tank or is there more money to be made? Is this a trade that you should be getting into at this level? Or h or you know, do you wait for pull back? Like what's your approach to these a broker dealers here?

Well, you know yeah obviously this this two looks at IT in my opinion. Um first, the perspective that like is this a trade that you should get into period IT feels like with the money flow that we saw that came with the day after the trump election, right, the first market opening after the trump win, um that was twenty two billion dollars of inflows into etf, right? If you follow those flows, that's a good week in etf inflow.

So this is all came in one day that leads me to believe that there is cash posted up on the sidelines waiting to buy dips in all kinds of different markets, right? So I think that's the reason why we want to not be afraid to play these break outs. Now play these break outs, I don't necessarily mean go and pay the high and tomorrow Prices, and that's going to be a great trade.

I will say that this is a trade that I respond to on day one because I do believe that that reaction was a day one reaction, inning one reaction to the trump in. So I have a starter position, like literally a placeholder. And now I literally we've going to coach my clients, which i've been saying, we ve got to get into this industry because clearly we are going to sell broker trade and clear the living crap out of a trumpet administration if these stocks are going to preserve, right?

So and you know now what's wait for a pull back and in the moving averages for me and then manage the risk, you know so whatever that means, I can see the numbers on the chart now, but that's fine. Um you know whatever the Prices were from the fifty down to the two hundred day, pick your risk a perimeter and get into the family and see what happens. So unless of course, there's a world changing and then going on, right? And not seem to buy them during the world war three announcement or anything like that.

You know what i'm saying so right, that's where we are. And then, you know you can look at things, the response, look at the fighter response, right? The poster child for for Robert Kennedy is appointment to make amErica healthy again.

You know like you ever saw anything like the tweet that he's put out that gave me frequent chills um when he was elected to that office. You know about how all of the things that we're putting into you, our system now that are bad, are going to come out right and we're going to start taking care the right things. And by the way, people that have done this Better packing your bags, right? So he's got an enda fazer. The vaccine company is running like a scared cat from a dog.

And he broke, and he broke to a fresh new fifty two week low. That this isn't just like A A small breakdown. This is uh this is like them taking out previous slows and they're obviously not the only farmer.

In fact, even biotech broken like you got a very broad selling that has come in, in the space. Now the question I would have for you is this obviously, the first reaction is we have to sell because we don't know what's about to happen. And and clearly, this trend may even potentially rain main in place for the remainder of the year until the administration comes in. But at some point, you know with all the lobby's and all the other things that go on, is there a point where, uh, you know, there's a lot more talk than what will actually be action as they're going to be a point where these farmers stocks are going to be buying opportunities at some point? Or or or you just going to avoid the space uh, on the intern.

Well, no, you know it's going to be interesting. Tell on fizz and know some of the other companies that ever responded bluntly like this um to the Kennedy appointment will know you you're going to look at that chart and just like what jumped out of you, Patrick, new low, this is a serious is breakdown. This could be a new range of entering, right? I say the same exact thing.

Now what you can do as a technician, if market prove you wrong, you will know what a false break down will look like, right? And if this thing finds a bottom in a false breakdown with the Kennedy appointment, and this thing is guest on the downside and starts recovering, I will jump in and trade that from the long side faster than your head will spin. And I hate the company like, I hate liver, you know? I mean, so.

That's where I think the opportunity is. I think we're going to a get a big tale on this move. And like you say, if if IT starts providing observation evidence that it's going down, we might be able to ride this soccer into the bottom of the new range.

whatever the hell that is. Now if here I just pulled up a chart here on the biotech, because clearly the the the major farmers like devices were and even the Johnson and Johnson, everything just got slam straight across the board. A by biotech just started in the last a week, just a nasty breakdown, uh, in this.

And so this is making the entire health care space pretty much a no goes zone very quickly here. Um what do you make of this breakdown? Is this something that you uh is a big red flag for you in terms of .

IT just sounds like the whole structure of the way things go on in amErica here from you know the from the food to the um farmer to the medical industry is all gonna change during the thumb administration.

And maybe these are just new york reactions I really do this industry patch I know less than zero about, right? All I tell you is what the headlines mean to the moves, right? So i'm no expert all, but I have to think that it's the whole you rebuffing of the deck that they're responding to, right in everything that's gna be sensitive like that. Insurance companies like things like that, like those eventually will have ripple effects if they actually enact half of the things that they say they're going to win act, you know like they say they're gonna stop putting like, you know that the yellow, the red died number forty in the yellow number five into our food, you know that they're actually going to tried to like not force seventy percent of the country to be obese, right? So that's a real game change across a number of industries.

right? And so basically, we can conclude that right now, these prevAiling trends you think are going to be more less don't this is a no goes zone basically for the a short term. But so let's talk about some of the things that did turn positive, like now one of the interesting things to me is what's going on in the energy space.

okay. Like because let's start off with just looking at crude oil because crude oil's chart is been pretty weak. There's no there's is very hard to say anything bullish about this chart other than that it's got a support line that's that is established on a low.

Um uh but if you look at energy stocks, they didn't get the memo. Uh, you know so the correlation between like energy stocks and an oil seems to have the coupled on on the trump period particular let's just look at the the majors with XL and and we can see that uh, the theyve gap tired. They're broken into multi months and pretty much it's been day after a day buying um what's you how do you size up the energy moves and and what your thoughts here?

I think that they look like a sort of eastern euphoric type of moves in response to trumps energy appointment. You know I think Chris ride is is like one of the probably lower profile but most important cabinet picks that trump is made.

And I think it's literally unbelievable that how selective he was able to be where if you look at right to resume, you see you know a guy that was involved in the development of the shale industry, right? You see a guy that is you know currently working at uh, our partners partner with in some way um a small modular nuclear reactor company, right? So he's in the uranium industry, you know and you've got a guy that you know they wrote he wrote an amazing paper um it's called a GTA think of the name of IT but that he's got the ten basic principles of like you know what what energy should is as about and what IT should before and he's a guy that starts with knowing that the least fortunate of the global population depend the most on an extremely efficient energy policy globally, you know and starting from that starting point, right down to the point of recognizing that nuclear energy is going to be massively important in the transition and that fossil fuels are not bad, they're also widely efficient. This is biden admin.

On its head, right? So he's not a climate change guy at all, you know, like he's he's not supportive of the entire thing, not supportive of the science. And like IT or not, people are going to deal with trump with what he's doing, you know. And this is an a credit guy that he's put in this position.

And it's that I think that the energy stocks are celebrating the fact that they are gonna to now instead of having their hands in their pockets because the administration hates their guts and is basically trying, you know, even though there are you, we're pumping a record, you know they're not investment spending and the stocks to go and really nowhere or had been um before this. And so now I think it's kind for their trends to restart. And maybe you know these appointments or the trump election is the thing that breaks exile out of a three year arrange that it's been .

in yeah the the interesting part about that is, is like, you know there was obviously a huge movement uh to uh kind of get these kind of stocks out of portfolios with this esg movement, right? So basically, you know avoid stocks, dirty stocks in their portfolio.

And I think that um we're seeing almost a Normalization of that where where some of these are going, the money is going back into, uh, well, we got to invest money where the money is being made as opposed to um you know having this kind of an agenda. Bigger question is, obviously these are breaking out, but not all energy stocks of breaking out. And so you obviously the majors have been the big winners, right?

X on resize shaver's been up along the top and the rain gic, these big boys are are making the money. But then there are other stocks offshore still deep down along its lows. You have um you know that gas stock, some of them i've turned up, but you have you have the oil service stocks. Well, like let's let's see i'm going to use the O I H. But like O I H has been in an awful downtrend and has has really been able to to turn. So how do you kind of reconcile, uh, the different spaces within energy? Or do you think that this is now the turning point of the broad trade and that just some legends are gonna take a while to to catch up up like or is this a selective energy market where you got ta focus on the majors that are getting the flow?

Yeah, no, i'm going to follow my nose or follow the markets, you know as they say and see which one tells that is worth being in. You know like i'm not small enough to figure out which one is going to benefit the most from the new energy. All see her um but i'll know when the sector shows up on my rate or screen as a break out and if IT looks like a break out and smells like a break out on the headline as big as a new energy policy.

I would imagine that that something that you shouldn't fade after the xi has been bottled up and arrange for three bit at four years now. No, I am able. The reason that I think that you shouldn't fade that if this is the headline driven break out is because i'm a believer that like sectors that consolidate for three years, like this one did and breaks out, this one can rally for three years now, and that would perfectly fit with the new administration that turned the last administration policy on its head. So that's the trade that I yes.

and the the and the sentiment couldn't be more negative. And energy like a IT, the the amount of people that are convinced that oils going to go down to forty and that um and that energy sectors dead money uh when you hear that kind of sentiment, you know that it's uh it's gotta be close to uh wash out with anyone that was not onna be in IT is already out right like it's the the shellers i've already sold.

So you will be interesting how to place that, by the way. So let's let's talk these defense contractors. Obviously this has been a hot sector for a while because obviously, uh global geopolitical tensions escalating over the last few years as uh been a profitable business for the space. Uh but um IT did gap higher on um in the post election period and still testing moving averages here. Is this uh something that you feel that that uh can persist? Is this still a sector that because IT seems like uh, there's been a lot of other trans of a or patterns that of reversed on the trump t election, but this one seems to be more like a continuation pattern of a trend that is already been in place to have any opinions .

here yeah I mean, I would stay bullish this sector. You know, Patrick, I just called up a little bit of larger term short than you. I goes back to the locked down law twenty twenty. Pull out up there. no.

And let's talk about that trend right? Because now you've got I see this thing consult, like I just said, about consolidation periods to me this thing consolidated basically for twenty, twenty one, twenty two and twenty three and broke out at the end twenty three right this things on a run. Um I wouldn't fade this unless we are outlaw lobbying in the united states of america.

So I don't see that happening anytime soon. That's why I I wouldn't mess with that bullshit and all other than try to be in IT. But if I can, I can participate and sleep .

at night in that sector. So when when you have this kind of pull box, uh, is IT usually around this fifty and one hundred day moving averages where you would be deep buying .

or work for the last year? You know, I am not i'm not anything, but i've been in things that break out and do that. And I sit there and trade the moth, the moving averages for as long as they'll let me now, now.

And so so here I have, like that, tested that fifty day on a pull back. Let's, uh, let's see if that train continues. Now let's talk, and likely let's talk the shiny metal gold now, uh, this thing starts ripping to the upside in the middle year and uh and there was a point where I couldn't find a single person that was barish gold when I was up at twenty eight hundred.

IT was uh, a consensus trade but obviously in a primary bull trend, we had a pretty quick two week wash show here like IT was just A A very typical mean reversion. You can see how nicely IT stopped at the hundred day moving average. So you like to track your. Um what's you're taking on gold? This seems like .

a fair orderly pullback in a market that guide a little bit over the skies. But to me but it's within you know the most important thing it's within the break out of the the through eighteen hundred finally, you know and within within that range, it's you know doing what I should be doing. It's trending.

It's getting away from the moving averages. You know it's got a pretty good fundamental story behind IT. Well, I mean, really good fundamental story behind IT, depending on how you look at IT.

I mean, there's some gold balls that they IT should be a twenty five car ready and I don't disagree. So you know who knows? We will see what happens.

but that looks great. And are you um is there any particular gold miners that are in your mind or or like any of the other precious metals? Or is IT primarily like looking at the the gold itself?

Yeah, gold is like another one that you know the trend is your friend and if you trade IT within your view of being long and like that's one of the positions that like the first position I put on the view matrix and my newsletter was gold because I was like, this is going to be a position that we're going to have to manage for the entirety of my life as a news letter author were long physical gold where we are trading long from the long side goal.

I have gold in my portfolio. It's everywhere. So let's manage IT. And you know IT was interesting to see to do nothing for a while and now finally break out. So um I haven't followed I don't trade the gold miners right because I am I have no idea why I want to complicate the story of this is the death thy at currency happening before your eyes everywhere you see and gold going up, you know anything going going up, right? I don't want to have anything to do and and that may sound lunk IT IT, may sound fro ish, whatever.

I don't want to have anything to do with all of the risks that the that the miners have to manage in order to pull the goal out of the ground to the point that, you know, guy, in very recent history, they're totally uncorrelated to gold performance, you know. So it's like if if if they're lagging that badly, then why I trying to, you know, pick the scrape, scrape the best, one of the bottom, trade this sector and right, I threw IT out the window. You know, I threw out the window from probably from getting burned so many times from the wrong side. You know, in a prior phase of my trading life.

most people would choose gold miners simply for the higher implied, right? You know, the relative move. But the question then is, is so I would assume that you're that kind of person that you'd rather trade two times leveraged on gold versus owning a one time leveraged on the miners and just play the gold itself is at a fair assumption of the way you would look at IT.

That's totally fair. That's totally fair. You know, when I I when i'm this bullishly the commodity for for enough reasons technically fundamentally eeta and and like you know like I said, like visibly like observation ally, you know I mean these things you're going up because the dollar is in cinerary, right? And the currently is in cinerary everywhere you look.

So that's the trade I want to have on. And I don't want to have to I don't want to have to listen to A C E. O. That that, that just complicate my view, right? This is the view that I have and keep .

in appear are awesome. Listen, we're going to have to wrap up soon, but I want to hit you up with go back to that uranium trade that you were talking about ah now uranium is not so easy to trade the way gold is like. What's when you are looking at uranium? Which way do you play? What is what is that? That you keep in an eye what playing?

We've been from the wrong side for the trend, for the idea that nuclear is coming back in a very serious way. And there's gonna a bigger industry around IT and more demand. And that will eventually create more liar, which will eventually, you know make IT more efficient things like that. So I think that's still I think we're in the first innings of that acceptance trade where you know .

that looks like but do you play IT through like the etf.

like the U R here. So i'm i'm wrong um you know to disclose S R O spite physical trust, S R U ft the physical um and also one uranium miners in my newsletter. So right right .

yeah so so like this. This a recent upturn, obviously that was quite volatile in the last little period. Uh, with that dip was quite the duty of a turn. You here we have that consolidation right at the moving averages right up along there. A, is this the set up for a breakout?

It's an amazing set for the break out. If you look at, you know, when I got above the moving averages, IT broke hire on the microsoft three mile island. Headline, no, yeah, that's when, that's when IT right? You say, you say no that he didn't. No, no did.

Yeah yes.

So I can. So that's why you know that was the to me that's a little bit of a game changing headline, right? We haven't heard that any other tech companies partnering with a nuclear source of, uh, power for their A I semi conductor generation.

That's interesting that that causes that move. And then you got you even got the full pull back to the break out level to shake out all the assos. You know that that just follow the thing in the last once in and then you've got IT holding where I should in resuming trend.

So to me, this is that was a game changing headline. This is a really good reaction to that headline, right? You know, reaction, pull back and action again. So that's the kind of thing that I kind of sink my teeth into while it's proving itself to be right.

right? Well, tony, listen, uh, I wanted to thank you so much for coming but before I let you go, where can our listeners ers find you and follow your work body?

Yeah yeah. Um you can follow me on twitter at T G macro and you can go to my website T G macro. Dcom has some of my work on if you want to subscribed to the newsletter.

I do a good podcast um with jared Dylan to try to compete with guys like you who are like monsters in the business because you need worthy competitors if you want to grows something real um and so that's where you can find me in my views. We published that every week and I also do an oil ground up podcast for the clear commodities network. That's a lot of fun. We interview all kinds of different people in the oil market specifically and contribute to a huge pool podcast. So it's really, really fun and never awesome.

Tony, listen that. Thank you so much for coming back on the show. You're one of our favorites, but and thanks for the update.

Thank you. My main you guess the best absolutely love the DDL.

right? Well, thanks for tuning into the market hudden plus a we back next week another episode. Cheers, everyone.