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Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we are headed once again to America's dairy land, Wisconsin.
Since we last talked about Wisconsin, the Trump-endorsed businessman Tim Michaels won the Republican primary to face Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers. And there have been a rash of polls showing that Democrat Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes has a real shot against GOP Senator Ron Johnson. But one thing hasn't changed. Wisconsin is still an evenly divided and crucial state this election cycle.
So for this week's group, we took the temperature of a bunch of Wisconsin swing voters, all of whom voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Once again, I am joined by the Bulwarks, the one, the only person I know from Wisconsin, Charlie Sykes. Hey, Charlie, thanks for being here. Well, it is great to talk about the cheeseheads. Good to be back.
So what is it like up there in Wisconsin right now? Like, what's the vibe? Is it like fall? Is it nice? Like what's happening? It is fall. Over the weekend, I was down in Austin, Texas, where it was 98 degrees and come back here and it is a hardcore fall temperature in the 50s. Sounds great. Wisconsin, it's September, October. What can I say? Are those like your best months? Is that like when Wisconsin really shines?
No, we have about six weeks of great summer. Those are our best months. Okay. But that's just me. Got it. Got it. Okay. So this is your third time on the show to talk about Wisconsin. You know more about it than anybody else that I know. But before we talk about Wisconsin, I'm sorry, we just have to quickly talk about Florida. I'm sorry. This was the first group we had done since the Ron DeSantis immigration stunt. Yeah.
And so we didn't want to miss an opportunity to ask these swing voters what they thought about that. And immigration is now sort of back on the top of people's radars. It's even been eclipsing abortion as the top Google search. And it's mainly because of this Ron DeSantis, Martha's Vineyard stunt. You know, immigration kind of popped up at the top of the group with one guy bringing it up. Nobody mentioned abortion. And we found that this group didn't.
did not like the DeSantis stunt. They really didn't like it. But some of them still said they wanted to see more of a focus on the border from Biden. So let's listen. It's absolutely pathetic. I mean, I understand the, well, I don't really understand the message he's trying to send, but like, this is everybody's problem with something. I mean, they're human beings. Like, I don't care what country they're from. That is very much the state of the Republican Party. It's going to be Trump
or it's going to be DeSantis. That will be your choice as a Republican voter. It's horrible. I don't have anything else to say other than that. I mentioned before that Biden wasn't the biggest fan. And still, the thing with immigration is, if I remember, he asked...
Vice President Harris to take control, go down to the border, let's fix this. And it's been two years now, and I don't think anything's changed. If anything, it's gotten worse. So we have a lack of a national focus on what's going on with immigration. So these guys, Abbott, they're just taking themselves and just saying, well, let's do this because it doesn't really matter. No one cares. So I'm going to do this just to spite you.
So it's going to be a lack of national focus on what we're supposed to be doing. What's the issue? I mean, do we have a policy or don't we have a policy? And I don't see anything. I just like feel bad for these people. Cause like, I think this is all sick. Just using these people as political pawns. Like,
These are people, you know, and they don't know better because they just want to be here because they think we are the best country ever. Their situation is terrible. And, you know, like DeSantis and Abbott are just using it as like just trash that they can throw aside and to make a point. And it just makes me feel really bad for these people. Yeah.
So I was very interested to hear what swing voters were going to say about this DeSantis thing, because I could have seen it going either way, but they were pretty firmly mad about it or thought it was a gross thing to do. What did you think about what they said? No.
No, I thought that was interesting. The juxtaposition of the two positions that this was a manipulative stunt, but also there's a problem at the border. You can hold those thoughts in your head at the same time. And I think that that sort of, you know, captures some of the division here in Wisconsin. But it is interesting how this has penetrated through and that people did get the scam element of all of that. We'll have to see how it plays out because
These are swing voters. And I was really struck by the fact that these are very, very thoughtful people who have really been locked into the news and have been clearly disillusioned with some of their previous votes and were willing to be more open-minded about it. I don't know how it plays out with the hardcore MAGA voters, you know, the Trump-Trump voters in 16 and in 20, the people who are going to turn out and vote for Ron Johnson again, whether or not they see it the same way. I just don't know.
Yeah, I mean, I suspect the hardcore Trumpers think it's great. They love all this hardcore trolling, using real people in their trolls. But, you know, I'm always interested in these swing voters. And I'll just say about this group in particular, you mentioned that they were a thoughtful group. They were quite a thoughtful group. But
But they are like most swing voters that we see, these sort of Trump 16, Biden 2020 voters, in that they still are oriented as Republicans. Like they all voted in the Republican primary, but they spent a lot of time voting.
lamenting the state of the Republican Party and lamenting the state of the country, how divided we are. This is also like a quality, I think, of the swing voting groups who like change their vote from 16 to 20, where they're just like, oh my God, what is going on? Let's listen to how they were talking about what a polarized, divided time we live in in this country.
to watch that country mourn the loss of their queen and everyone to wait hours and days in line and walk miles, like that really stood out to me. And I'm like, I wish we had that, you know, to be so just concerned that you've lost this person that was a good guiding force in your politics. Like
Why can't we have that? I mean, granted, I feel like with the whole mega thing, that's kind of where they think they are. But like, why can't we have something like that where we truly respect our politicians and truly respect our president? Because I don't feel like there is any respect anymore.
I'll agree with that, but I don't think it is the people don't respect the politicians anymore. It's like I don't trust them anymore. And I'm seeing this race for governor. I'm seeing this race for Senate. And in Wisconsin, it's like the ads are unbelievable. And there's so much divisiveness right now. Yeah, England came together for their queen. Would we come together for the president? No.
Not in that respect. I really doubt it because there's just too much separation between left and right.
I remember as a kid, 9-11, you know, how we all came together. Like one side of my family loved Bush and the other side hated Bush. But in that time, we knew we had to come together. And if something like that happened now, I don't think the country would come together. Like the country didn't come together for Corona. And I think, you know, the United States hurt because of it. You know, I really wish there was someone that can work together
Even if they are conservative, that one moment, they can come together and work together. And Biden can't do that. You know, sometimes I find myself just marinating in the lamentations of the centrist voter because, like, I just...
I feel it so hard. But they raise an interesting question. Like, I just wanted to ask you, what do you think would happen if like Joe Biden died or Donald Trump died? Like, how would we as a country react to that? I think that's an excellent question because you really sense that, you know, first of all, the exhaustion with our politics, but also that sense that nothing is going to bring us together, that we're not going to experience anything like the national unity, uh,
mourning the queen, that we are just too divided. There is really nothing that's going to pull us together. We didn't come together for COVID-19. It's almost inconceivable to imagine the country coming together after 9-11 again. And, you know, this is what really struck me about this part of the discussion, how deep that yearning is for
some kind of sanity in our politics. And I think that that's an underappreciated political phenomenon, not just in Wisconsin, but that people are looking around whatever side of the divide you're on. You're going, this is bad. This is dangerous. This is getting worse. It didn't always have to be this way. I wish I didn't have to argue with members of my family like this. I wish I could turn on television without being absolutely inundated with negative, toxic ads about
So this is an interesting question. Where do those voters go? Where do those exhausted, disillusioned voters actually end up? It's weird because it is both a very real phenomenon, but it is one that you hear primarily from this kind of
slice of swing voter-ish that is willing to vote for both parties. Like people will say in the more partisan groups, right? If you're just like always a Democrat, always a Republican, they'll say like we're too divided, but they'll also kind of be like,
We shouldn't be so divided, but also everything is that other political party's fault and those jerks and blah, blah, you know, there's something about the swing voters where it's, it's deeper. But I also think that there's a tendency to overestimate how many of these people there are. Like, I think sometimes people like my beloved Larry Hogan will talk about the exhausted majority vote.
And I'm worried that it is an exhausted minority, that there's like, you know, that it's still like an energized majority on both sides that are hyper-partisan. But like, these are our people who are like trying to muddle through wishing for sort of a kinder, gentler America. But this is where leadership could make a huge difference, right? As if somebody sort of tried. Yeah. Yeah.
to tap into this. That phrase kept popping up as I was watching the focus group. These are our people here. And, you know, just a note about Wisconsin. One of the things that I think has been a fixed reality since probably 2010 has been how small the group of swing voters has been. I mean, our polls don't move very much. I remember when Scott Walker was the governor here, there was virtually no one who was undecided.
Mm-hmm.
There is that sort of underwater exhaustion because particularly here in Wisconsin, this has been going on a very, very long time, as you know, and it feels like it's ratcheting up. But you're right. I don't know that it's the majority who is exhausted, but there is a minority and it might be larger than shows up in the polls.
And I think the real big question in a midterm election is how many of those just decide, like, screw it and stay home. Yeah. As opposed to vote. And even if there's a small group who just say screw it and stay home, who are just too exhausted, who just, you know, a pox on both your houses, that could be decisive in a state where our statewide elections are decided by roughly 20,000 votes. Yeah.
If you want to listen to the rest of this episode, and believe me, you do, you need to go sign up for Bulwark Plus at thebulwark.com. Charlie, because we're going to talk about all kinds of things. We're going to talk about Ron Johnson and Tim Michaels, and you've got all of your Wisconsin knowledge to impart.
And they should become Bulwark Plus members, don't you think? I think they definitely should become Bulwark Plus members because they really do want to hear our conversation about Wisconsin politics, about base politics, about crime, and about the furries. Really. I don't know if you listened to the Tim Alberta episode, but Tim Alberta's pitch for why people should join Bulwark Plus is to make sure that you were clothed and fed. He just wanted to make sure you were taken care of. That's so kind of him. I appreciate that. Yes.