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You're listening to Fox News Radio. I'm Ben Dominick. The alarm bells are ringing for Democrats, and they are ringing loud and clear. Just listen to this commentary from Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a Democrat-leaning analyst who definitely has approached elections during his time in multiple different entities, including the New York Times, from a perspective of trying to give the best possible spin in favor of the Democratic Party.
Here's what he wrote at his sub stack, which you can find at natesilver.net. So my view as of six weeks ago, he writes, was that it was probably just too late to replace Biden. But as Biden's polling numbers gets worse, his approval ratings are near their lowest ever number. I've been increasingly hedging on that. Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden, but they're also taking a huge risk by nominating him. There's no getting out of this.
Politico's Jonathan Martin does have inside knowledge. He's one of the more well-sourced reporters in the business. So when he wrote the following paragraph this morning, Nate Silver writes, it set off my internal alarm bells. He quotes from a Politico magazine piece on the reelection challenges that Biden faces, where Jonathan Martin wrote, that's in part for reasons Biden refuses to accept his capacity to do the job.
The oldest president in history, when he first took the oath, Biden will not be able to govern and campaign in the manner of previous incumbents. He simply does not have the capacity to do it, and his staff doesn't trust him to even try, as they make clear by blocking him from the press. Biden's bid will give new meaning to a Rose Garden campaign, and it requires accommodation to that unavoidable fact of life.
Silver writes, It's not entirely obvious how to regard this claim. Martin is usually a fairly straight reporter, but this is a more opinion-y piece in Politico magazine. If this is just Martin's view, it's still worth listening to because he's a well-informed observer, but not necessarily something that should change anyone's plans. If this is a consensus view, a widely acknowledged truth that other people are too afraid to say, including people in the White House,
then that's enough to pull me off the fence, Silver writes. It would be extremely foolish to nominate an 80-year-old man who is not up to the rigors of a modern presidential campaign, even more foolish than replacing him, which, just to be clear, is also an extremely foolish thing to do. As Democrats are warring back and forth over the potential ramifications of replacing Joe Biden,
There's a new entrant into the conversation about presidential politics who himself represents a real new development in terms of the 21st century approach to politics. Someone who, in some ways, could represent the first possibility for an outside candidate, someone external to the two-party system, of having an actual shot at the presidency.
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you, Joseph Manchin III. I got into politics because of an argument I had 40 years ago with my dad. John Manchin owned a furniture store in Farmington, West Virginia, a small coal mining town of hardworking people. And one day our local state representative came in and asked dad for a favor, saying, you owe me for all the things I've done for your little town.
When the man left, I turned to my dad and said, "Now wait a minute. Isn't helping Farmington that man's job?" That moment defined the difference between self-service and public service. When I told my dad that I was going to run for office, he said, "Oh, Joe, politics is a bad business. I'm telling you right now, stay out of it." I didn't disagree that often with my father, but that time I did. I reminded him of the famous line from President John F. Kennedy's inaugural address:
Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country. I was 13 when I first heard it, and I'm still inspired today by it. My family were devoted Catholics who immigrated from Italy and Czechoslovakia. So to us, President Kennedy was held in the highest regard, and I knew President Kennedy's words would sway my dad.
It took him about a minute, but my dad said that he would support me running if I made a vow to serve all the people, friend or foe, and not just myself. That promise made to my dad all those years ago has been my guiding light. I've never cared about where good ideas came from, and I never blamed one side for creating a problem, nor believed that only one side could fix them.
When America is at her best, we get things done by putting country before party, working across the aisle, and finding common ground. Many times this approach has landed me in hot water, but the fight to unite has been well worth it.
Today, West Virginia is attracting more investment, opportunity and jobs than it has in decades. Here at home and across the country, we are building more roads, bridges, manufacturing plants and energy infrastructure than almost any time in America's history. After months of deliberation and long conversation with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia.
I've made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for reelection to United States Senate. But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together. More of the Ben Domenech podcast right after this. This episode is brought to you by Shopify. Whether you're selling a little or a lot.
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In the Senate, Joe Manchin was the definition of the swing vote. He opposed President Obama's energy policies, but blocked repeated attempts to repeal Obamacare. He supported President Trump's border wall and immigration policies and judicial nominees. But he voted against the 2017 Trump-Ryan tax bill and voted to convict Trump in both of his impeachment trials. He voted for Brett Kavanaugh, but he also voted for Katonji Brown-Jackson.
More recently, in what turned out to be a major regret for him, he was a sponsor of the Inflation Reduction Act. On foreign policy, he has opposed most military interventions and pushed for withdrawal from Afghanistan, but he's also been a firm supporter of Ukraine and Israel. And of course, as he stresses in every ad, he is a big supporter of the Second Amendment.
I'm Joe Manchin. I approve this ad because I'll always defend West Virginia. As your senator, I'll protect our Second Amendment rights. That's why the NRA endorsed me. I'll take on Washington and this administration to get the federal government off of our backs and out of our pockets. I'll cut federal spending and I'll repeal the bad parts of Obamacare. I sued EPA and I'll take dead aim at the cap and trade bill.
because it's bad for West Virginia. And the governor says he has no regrets about releasing one of the most explosive ads of this election season. West Virginians have never seen their governor quite like this, leveling a rifle at the agenda of his fellow Democrat, President Obama. Don't you think it's a little bit over the top to be firing a gun when you're talking about the president and his policies? When we're talking about the president, we're talking about cap and trade.
Cap and trade is dead on arrival, should be. The ad is a calculated move by Manchin, who may have earned high marks for his handling of mining disasters. And the rescue teams are prepared. They've been, they're charged up, ready to go. But in ad after ad, his opponent calls him a roughshod.
for stamp for President Obama and it's sticking. Being a rubber stamp for Barack Obama. Republican industrialist John Racy has run for Senate twice before. He favors abolishing the minimum wage and likes to joke that he's to the right of the Tea Party.
Governor Manchin was a great advocate of the stimulus package and used it extensively throughout West Virginia. Didn't every governor do that? Oh, no, no. National Republicans didn't do Racy any favors when a firm they hired to produce this ad... We better keep Joe Manchin right here in West Virginia. Away from Washington. ...put out a casting call for, quote, "hickey blue-collar types."
That upset me terribly. Why? Well, because it portrays West Virginia as being redneck and they're not. There's all kinds of educated people here. Manchin's decision to retire from the U.S. Senate is not surprising. The tea leaves have been there for a long time. But what is surprising is how immediately and explicitly he's made clear that he is entertaining the possibility of entering the 2024 presidential contest.
It is a decision that could prove monumentally important to the 2024 outcome. And unlike most third-party candidates, Manchin has a real shot at being more than a protest vote.
For the last true independent-minded moderate in the Democratic Party, it should be an easy choice. He has every reason to run for president. The Republicans and the Democrats are both headed toward nominating two of the most unpopular politicians in America. The challenges that they face are unique and unavoidable. Donald Trump will be running under a cloud of pending convictions, perhaps convictions that he's currently appealing.
that every poll indicates will render him toxic to independent voters. While Joe Biden will be doddering through an election where it seems like he has no idea where he is at any given moment, and as we've learned through this whole process, he really is someone who is incapable of even running a campaign, of going out there and making himself available to the voters, even in the sense of clad-handing along various rope lines.
Americans want someone else, even to the degree of entertaining the possibility of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has never been elected to anything and is someone who, given his past, should be anathema to a lot of different segments of the political fray, except that
It turns out that he is a canny and articulate, good podcast guest, someone with different ideas and someone with ideas that are particularly compelling in the wake of the pandemic and all of the overreach that we saw during that period.
Early indications are that he takes more from Trump than he does from Joe Biden, but RFK has limited resources and is anathema to the mainstream media, while Manchin is someone who has cultivated that same media, proving his capability on that national stage as he operated in so many instances at the center of the conversation in Washington, waiting to see what he would determine ought to be the course.
The typical reasons that prevent politicians from running on a third-party ticket simply don't apply to Joe Manchin. Rather than have to go through the heavy task of gaining ballot access, he has the well-funded no-labels effort waiting eagerly for him.
There is already an awareness that a significant amount of center-right donor money stands ready to flow to a candidate who is interested in running for president and is not Donald Trump. And he doesn't have to worry, in Joe Manchin's case, about his political future. If he's truly at the end of his political career, he loses and then he can just go home and write the book that he would have written anyway about his time in politics.
We are entering a period where the party machines, which were once essential to winning elections, have been thoroughly weakened. The party organizations are largely ineffectual or incapable of motivating voters. The great cultural sort has led to a significant opening in the political middle, one which has only increased in the wake of the Dobbs ruling and the takeover of the Democratic Party by the radical, racialized cultural left.
These are all factors that play into Manchin's decision to potentially run for president. Manchin is uniquely positioned to take advantage of all of this. If he avoids a key mistake, he should immediately dismiss the gadfly effort to have him run on a ticket with Mitt Romney. For the record, Romney's people have denied any of the reports that have come out suggesting that he was angling for some kind of role in a Manchin campaign.
But the truth is that, you know, you do not have anything that is added to you by bringing on someone who has that amount of baggage. Instead, I would hope that someone like Manchin would look to the fact that there is an availability here for him to appeal to both sides. As much as he is considered a conservative by the mainstream media and by his fellow Democrats, he's really a moderate and he's left of center from the perspective of Republican voters.
That's me shooting the cap and trade bill because it was bad for West Virginia. Hey, I haven't changed. I might be a few years older, but I'll still take on anyone that messes with West Virginia. Now the threat is Patrick Morrissey's lawsuit to take away health care from people with pre-existing conditions. He is just dead wrong, and that ain't going to happen. I'm Joe Manchin, and I approve this message because for me, it's all about West Virginia.
Joe and I grew up together in West Virginia, and he never forgets where he came from. He loves our state. He's dedicated his whole life to West Virginia. I swear that there's no one that loves the people of West Virginia more than Joe Manchin. I don't have a better friend or know a better person than Joe Manchin. My friend Joe works with Republicans and Democrats to get things done. And I'm proud to tell people that Joe Manchin is my U.S. Senator.
I'm Joe Manchin and I approve this message for all West Virginians. The idea that he would run for president and just add someone who was from his own party and try to do this, you know, independent lane in a way that would navigate that just seems to me to be laughable. He needs to add someone who actually has some credibility when it comes to their appeal to the right side of the aisle. While Manchin is far more level-headed and physically healthy than Biden or Trump, he
Whoever he chooses to run with must be someone who is younger, someone who's media savvy, someone who appeals culturally to his political right.
In his Wall Street Journal op-ed announcing his move, Manchin holds up his attempt to codify Roe in the Senate, only to be blocked by Democrats who wanted more extreme legislation, as an example of his moderation. That type of move would be totally repugnant to pro-life voters post-Dobbs, who might otherwise entertain voting for a third-party ticket.
This does not mean that Manchin needs to choose a conservative. There are a host of moderate politicians who could satisfy the concerns here without turning off potential Republican-leaning independent voters. For Manchin, any path to winning involves maximizing the support of independents, bringing over enough of a percentage of partisan voters who've been turned off by both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
and appealing to voters who have been turned off by politics to the point where they feel like they are bound to no party label. In the assured event that Joe Biden continues his obvious decline, and in the likely event that Donald Trump is convicted in the courts on at least one, if not more, of these various accounts,
It makes a Joe Manchin campaign the greatest possibility for a third-party presidency since Ross Perot in 1992. It's a challenging task, but it's not impossible. And for someone who has talked for so long about the toxic nature of the two-party system, it would be Manchin putting his money where his mouth is.
I'm Ben Domenech. You've been listening to a Fox News podcast. You can check out all of our podcasts at foxnewspodcast.com. We'll be back soon with more to dive back into the fray. Listen ad-free with a Fox News podcast plus subscription on Apple Podcasts. And Amazon Prime members can listen to this show ad-free on the Amazon Music app.
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