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All right, welcome in Inside Golf Podcast, WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Championship Betting and DFS Preview. My name is Andy Lack.
This podcast is presented by RickRungood.com. If you have not already signed up, I would highly recommend that you do that. Coupon code Andy. That is the important part. But you will be getting all the stats and tools that I will be talking about today, a bunch of written content, plus a very active Slack channel where you can ask me questions
anything, anytime. It is a really small investment. You can try it out for a week. It's seven bucks. If you like it, if you find it useful, awesome. If not, no worries. But I have a feeling if you enjoy this podcast, you will also enjoy all the stuff we got going on over there. It seems like the
the DFS article on Wednesday is really helping people. My guy, uncle, big Nick took down a round two showdown contest this week. I wish I could say my week was as successful, way too much Molinari in my case. I do not know what I was thinking with that one, but let's move on. Let's move on to the Valis bar actually first. So I'm back in New York, busy couple of days, fun couple of days, but,
I went to see John Mayer on Wednesday night at the Forum. I mean, I'm biased. I've been a massive fan of his forever. I've seen him probably six times. I got to say, I think this time might have been his best. And I'm going to do a podcast segment on this probably next week with Scott Holdridge, who's a great Twitter guy.
and is far more well-versed in music and guitar playing than I am because we both just think Mayer is fascinating. He's had a weird career. You go through John Mayer's Wikipedia page, it's like, holy shit, this thing happened, then this happened, and then he said that, and then he dated that person.
There's a great documentary just sitting there that I hope like an HBO Max makes someday. It's a really weird career arc, but I think he is actually one of the most talented musicians to ever do it. He might have been born too early. He might have been born too late.
I'm excited to break it all down. He's definitely made some weird choices and had a lot of different career kind of mini phases. But some of the shit that he can do on guitar that you have to see live is pretty damn special. Just listen to what Eric Clapton has to say about John Mayer. You find it on YouTube. But he's like, this guy's a fucking master. I've never seen anything like it. And I think he's right.
I think he's right. It's absolutely intoxicating and remarkable when he riffs on songs like Belief and then changes speeds and goes completely into acoustic within your atmosphere and just does something completely different. So Scott's seeing John Mayer in San Francisco this weekend. So we'll expand on our thoughts probably next week. We'll put it at the end of the
Valero, Texas open pod, because the week after that is the masters and we'll put it at the end, just like we did with the euphoria stuff, which the seven people that stuck around to listen to the euphoria stuff seem to love it. All seven of them, believe it or not, I actually get more positive feedback in DMS when I talk about other shit than golf, way more than anything.
Anything I do related to golf and I have some great sponsors and partners now. So I'm not really in the phase anymore of having to worry so hard about monetizing and growing the show. Of course, I'd like it to continue to grow, but whatever.
I'm going to talk about what I want. If I want to deep dive John Mayer's career arc, I'm going to do that. But don't worry, we'll still put it at the end. Golf will always come first. All right. Speaking of golf, Valspar. So I'm recording this early Sunday morning. No idea what's going to happen today. My guess would be Justin Thomas wins, but crazier things have happened. You know, I think a lot of us were very surprised about how easy this course is playing.
I'm kind of kicking myself for that one, to be honest. I generally pay a lot of attention to the weather. And I kept seeing and hearing that, you know, this area has gotten some rain recently. It's more wet. But I still didn't expect the greens to be this receptive, even more so than last year, which also played on the easier side.
And a lot of the time, if a course plays somewhat differently than I thought it was going to play, I try and think back and see, you know, would this have changed my picks in any way? And most of the time, like, eh, probably would have picked the same dudes for the most part. But this week, I think I definitely would have gone in a different direction. I mean, I'm super proud of my guys. I've got Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, and Norrin.
Have all stepped up to the plate. They've all shot at least 10 under par. So I've got three guys in the top 12 and they don't have a fucking chance today.
That's just not who they are. Like if you're asking me at the beginning of the week, would you sign for Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, and Norrin all at 10 under or lower heading into the final round at the Valspar? I would say yes. I would absolutely sign for that. But those guys aren't going to go out and shoot 62 or make 25 birdies in a week. That's just not their game. They're all so much better suited to
For a harder test. And that's not what we got this week. Honestly. I'm surprised those guys have been able to keep up. As well as they have. I will say. Even knowing that the winning score could be 20 under.
I don't think I'll be losing a ton of sleep if an 11-1 Justin Thomas beats me. And this is coming from somebody that has been saying on this podcast, JT is really close. He is really close and it is coming soon. It is coming. It is coming very soon. And I said, in December, Justin Thomas is going to win the Masters. And I still feel really good about that.
He's just been percolating and percolating. And I think he's finally peaking at the right time. Unfortunately, if he does close it out today, we will not get a bettable number on him at the Masters. If he wins today, I think there's a pretty decent shot that he'll go off as a favorite to win the Masters.
I mean, we already started to see Rom slip up to 14 last week. And at some places, JT and Morikawa both went off as either co-favorites or ahead of Rom at the players. And Rom sucked at the players. And now JT does this. I think he'll probably be the favorite. Now, Rom could go out and win the match play and change that, which I think is very much in play. I like him a lot this week.
But you know, it's funny with the ROM thing. Like now people are just kind of over it after a couple bad weeks. And it's like, yeah, I've been, I've been saying this for months. Like he was never going to be as good as people thought he was. He was never going to take the mantle from Tiger.
He's never going to be world number one for years on end, right? He was never going to be a guy that wins four times every year for the next decade and goes down as this all-time great. He's not as good as Seve or Phil or even Vijay. It was never going to happen. But now, once again, as it always does, the pendulum is starting to swing a little bit too far in the other direction.
where now it's like, Rom sucks. He can't chip. He can't putt. He's got the yips. He was on the right side of the draw at the players and he didn't do shit. He's out there making nines, embarrassing himself, hitting fans. Cam Smith's actually the best player in the world. Scotty Scheffler's actually the best player in the world. All right, Rom will be fine. And to be honest with you,
I actually think, I actually feel more strongly that he's going to win the Masters today than I did at the beginning of the year when everyone was blowing smoke up his ass. And like I said, he was never going to be this guy that was just going to take the best player in the world mantle and fucking run away with it for the next decade. And the conversation is just over. And he's just in this tier by himself. That was never going to happen.
My argument the entire time has simply been there's no gap, right? Like he is in the conversation for the best player in the world. And at worst, in my opinion, he is a top five player in the world. But if you think he is head and shoulders above everyone else, you are mistaken.
And now it's like, okay, I think people have realized that he's not head and shoulders above everyone else, but let's not get it twisted. At minimum, he's a top five guy, minimum. And the top five best players in the world right now, in my opinion, are John Rahm, Colin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Victor Hovland. And I don't know what the order is.
I think the order will switch multiple times throughout the season. And maybe after this week, JT takes it and then Rom takes it right back.
And then Colin takes it back. It's obviously wide open right now. It's wide open right now. You could make the case for any of those five guys. You could also make a case for Cam Smith if you wanted to. You can make a case for Scheffler. And if you are under the belief that despite what they have been up to recently, that Dustin Johnson's ceiling or Brooks Koepka's ceiling is actually the best,
you could make that case too. I think JT is firmly going to enter the chat if he wins today, especially also because he had that crazy round at the players where everyone's fawning over him and he had all those different shot shapes and he was flighting it down in the wind. Everyone's going super crazy over him. And it's like, oh yeah, like Justin Thomas can do things with a golf club that very, very few people can do. He is a special talent. And if he wins today,
That's 15 wins under the age of 28 with a major end of players. There's like three other guys to ever do that. It's Tiger, it's Jack Nicklaus, and it's Johnny Miller. So Justin Thomas is still on like an all-time pace and he's doing it in a more difficult era. He could go down as one of the greatest players of all time based on the pace he's at. He's only 28 years old. He's got to add a few more majors, but he's doing it, right? But again, you know, let's not forget
Rahm is still dangerous as shit. And you want to talk about a gap. Well, statistically, John Rahm actually has created a gap with what he's doing off the tee right now. I mean, it is at a completely different level than anyone. He finished 55th at the players gained 7.2 strokes off the tee. He's like averaging plus four, plus five, plus six, plus seven off the tee right now.
I mean, he hasn't lost strokes off the tee since 2019. It's insane how much of a weapon that club is for him. The issue is he can't chip or putt right now, but I do not think his putter is broken. I do not think that he suddenly lost his touch around the greens. I think he was due for a little bit of a statistical regression. I didn't know how it was going to happen. And actually, you could make the argument
The ball striking has gotten even better. It's just the short game and putter has gotten so much worse. And that happens to guys all the time. They just go through phases where they can't putt. And I have a ton more confidence in somebody who can't chip or putt than somebody who's going through a swing change. He's going to figure it out. And he's going to figure it out soon.
And right now, if you told me JT was 11-1 to win the Masters and Rom was 16-1 to win the Masters, I think I'd probably bet Rom. That's how tight I think it is right now. And again, that's just been my point the whole time is that it's really tight at the top right now. And I think people so badly...
Want to say, oh, this guy's clearly the best. No, this guy's clearly the best. No, let's anoint this guy. When the reality is they're like eight fucking guys that are amazing and no one is head and shoulders above anyone else. And that's why I've always been someone to wait on major futures, right? Because I'm telling you right now, there is going to be a very elite player that you will be able to get a very good number on.
on Masters week, on Masters Wednesday. If JT wins today and Colin or DJ or Cantlay win the match play and Rahm doesn't get out of the group stage, which is a very realistic scenario, both in the case of JT winning today and that happening at the match play. Is anyone surprised if Rahm ends up at 18 or 20 to one? Think about it. You have to keep speed high at the Masters.
Spieth will be sub 20. Right now he's 12, which is terrible. He'll probably quote unquote drift to 18 or 20, but they're going to keep Spieth high at Augusta. They're going to keep Cam Smith high too, who just won the fucking players and has been incredible at Augusta.
They're going to keep Rory high too because people love betting Rory at Augusta and people also love betting Victor Hovland, right? And what happens if Bryson shows signs of life at the match play, right? Like what happens to him? What if Brooks goes out there and wins the match play and looks awesome? He'll be fucking 11 to 1 to win the Masters.
Even if he doesn't win the match play, but makes it to like the semis and looks great, they'll drop him like a rock at these majors. They're more scared of him here at the masters than they are at the Honda or the CJ cup as they should be. Same with DJ who will be 12 to one in a fucking heartbeat. If he looks great in Austin. So my only point is, you know, somebody's going to have to fall in the other direction too. And there's a good chance that,
that of all the guys that I just mentioned, somebody will fall in the other direction too. And that's why this match play tournament week is really interesting because you're getting all the big guns outside of Rory and Cam Smith and whoever plays really well or poorly, like that's the narrative that they're going to get heading into the masters. Now, will that narrative be a dumb overreaction to a weird tournament? Yes.
Of course, but that's just how it goes. And I think you'll probably be able to capitalize on it Masters Week because one of the top guys, probably a few of them, are not going to make it out of the group stage this week. And they're going to lose a match to a random EuroTour guy that you've never heard of. That's just how it works. So anyway, let's talk about it. Let's talk about the match play. Actually, let's talk about our partners first, Juice Reel. So...
I've mentioned this app last week. I tweeted it out too. I'm actually going to meet with these guys in person when I'm in New York. I'm just incredibly impressed with what they've got going on. So essentially, anywhere you bet, whether it's DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, Barstool, whatever, even offshores, you can sync to. All of your bets...
All of your bets and your bet history automatically loads into this app in seconds. So you can sync all of your bets in one place. You can keep track of everything. It also gives you all of your analytics. So you can see here historical profits and losses, how you've done on straight bets, first parlays and teasers, even like what your worst teams are. So if you want to find out
which is very enlightening for me. How much money you've lost betting on the next, you can do that. And if you want to find out like, hey, are these parlays that I keep doing, are they actually working? Are they actually working? You can find that out. You can actually figure out is the way that I'm going about this betting thing, is it smart? Are there certain things I do that cause me to lose money? Are there certain things I do that are working?
So I've always been a big proponent of keeping track of stuff, right? That's why I always post my record every week, even though hashtag units Twitter can get a little cringy at times. I still think it's important to be accountable. And I still think if you're listening to this podcast and taking my information, I think you at least want to know that the stuff that I'm doing is working, right?
And I've had everything recorded for years. So I wish I had juice reel from day one because it would have saved me a lot of time.
But that's really just the tip of the iceberg with what you can do with them. You can line shop. They have this live value tracker that tracks the real-time value of your bets with every single play. They set up arbitrage opportunities for you. I was shocked to see how advanced their technology was and how I hadn't heard of them, but they're pretty new and I think they're going to be really big. I really,
I really believe that. So go download Juicereal in the app store. It's completely free, and I'm really excited for what's to come with them. All right, let's talk about the match play. WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Tournament. It has been held since 1999. It is the only match play tournament on the PGA Tour currently, and since 2016, it's been held at Austin Country Club.
So, the match play format, it used to be a lot bigger than it is. It really fell out of favor with the growth of television. The PGA Championship used to be match play all the way up to 1958. But with the growth of television, they kind of realized that you could get some real...
It's not always great TV. It can be great TV, but a lot of the time it's not great TV. So it kind of fell out of favor as a real format on the PGA tour. And then I kind of said, all right, we want to have at least one match play tournament. So they brought it back. It basically started in 1999, the first couple of years.
Didn't catch a lot of steam, but then they started going to Dove Mountain in 2007. And many of the best until then, many of the best players turned down the tournament and it kind of had this hard time getting off the ground. But when they moved it to Arizona and the fact that Tiger Woods started winning it every year also helped.
The best players in the world started to say, okay, money's good. Arizona is a very convenient location for most of these guys. And from 2007 on, it has mostly had a field with the best players in the world. But there were still a lot of weather issues in Arizona and not a lot of people were showing up to the tournament. So in 2015, they said, we're going to reboot this whole thing. We're going to move it to Harding Park in San Francisco and
So they changed the format. So the field was split into 16 four-player groups played on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with the player with the best record advancing. And then the knockout rounds are split over Saturday and Sunday. So they basically did this so the spectators could at least see the whole field the first three days. They didn't want a situation where early on Wednesday morning,
Antoine Rosner is eliminating like Rory and then Rory's just done for the week. But after one year in California, the tournament moved on the schedule again. It moved to March with a new long-term home of Austin Country Club and a new title sponsor, Dell Technologies, which is also conveniently located in Austin.
And since 2016, it has been held at Austin Country Club. So I wouldn't really look at too much stuff before 2016, but here are the guys that
that have won since 2016. So last year, Billy Horschel over Scotty Scheffler in the finals. 2020 was canceled due to COVID. 2019, Kevin Kisner over Matt Kuchar. 2018, Bubba Watson over Kevin Kisner. 2017, Dustin Johnson over Jon Rahm. 2016, Jason Day over Luis Jason. And the one thing that stood out to me, even looking back a little bit further, is
I think this tournament is a little bit of a crapshoot in certain respects. But one thing I know is we've never had somebody above 80-1 win in the last 10 years. And we've only had two guys above 50. Now, we've had a ton of guys in that 20-50 range win here. So if you figure that trend is going to continue,
And you knock out all the guys above 80 ish to one. And even Kisner who had the longest odds of the bunch, it wasn't really a huge shock to see him win considering he had just finished a runner up the year before. And, uh,
If you expect that trend to continue, that kind of knocks out like half the field. Now, we've had some long shot guys go on some nice runs here, and certainly there are going to be a ton of upsets. But it's kind of like the NCAA tournament in the sense that in terms of actually winning, your OWGR manipulators, they're not actually winning.
So that's just something to think about. One more formatting thing before we get to the course. So how you qualify the field is the top 64 players in the official world golf ranking. If anyone in the top 64, in this case, I think it's like Rory, Cam Smith, Harris English are not available. Then the next highest player in the ranking just gets his spot. Oh, Hideki too is not playing.
And then the players are split into 16 groups of four players, and each group has a player seated. And then they play this round-robin format over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Remember, it starts on Wednesday this week again. So once again, two days in between when we get odds and pricing and the tournament starts, which is fantastic.
Tough sledding for people like myself that have to put out six different pieces of content during that time. I really appreciate and need the three days, but we'll somehow make it work.
But starts on Wednesday this week. And one point is rewarded for a win. Half point is rewarded for a tie. And the guy with the most points after he plays everyone moves on to the Sweet 16. And if two or more players are tied at the top of the group, there is a sudden death stroke play tiebreaker played to decide who progresses.
And then once we get to the sweet 16, as we call it, the round of 16 and the quarterfinals are played on Saturday. And then the semifinal, the third place, and the final are played on Sunday. So the final two days are 36 holes.
All right. So you got the format down. Remember, it starts on Wednesday. Group stage, first three days, 36 holes over the weekend, knockout stage. Let's talk about the golf course. So Austin Country Club.
was designed in 1984 by Pete Dye. It's a par 71. It measures just 7,108 yards on the scorecard. A couple holes on the back nine flank Lake Austin. And it is absolutely a good golf course for match play. It's a course that very much rewards risk reward play.
And in preparation for the 2016 event, the golf course underwent
This big restoration and the greens were relayed with Tiff Eagle Bermuda grass and overseeded with that same Poet Trivialis that we've seen the last two weeks, both at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook and TPC Scottsdale and PGA West and TPC San Antonio also have that overseeded Bermuda grass.
The fairways are Bermuda grass overseeded with perennial ryegrass fescue blend. And the rough is two inch Bermuda grass. The rough is not very thick here at all. It's not a huge problem here if you're in the rough. And the greens are only 5,500 square feet on average. So very small greens. There are a ton of bunkers here.
in play on this course. So I will be looking a bit at sand saves and water comes into play on seven holes. I would say that probably the biggest defense of this course, it can get a little windy, but in reality, this course really isn't all that difficult. I mean, PTI courses are
All have tricks and visual intimidation stuff, but it's not a long course. Pretty much every hole is designed to give you an opportunity to make birdie. And yeah, of course, you can absolutely get yourself in trouble here. But if a stroke play event was held here at this golf course, I think it would be an event that guys would get to 20 under at.
Honestly, I think the best comp is the stadium course at PGA West because that features the exact same agronomy. It's also P-Dye. Ton of risk reward. And what else? Sawgrass, right? Like, I think sawgrass is another pretty decent one. Same thing. Very similar agronomy. Ton of risk reward. And then...
I'd throw TBC River Highlands in there too, which is another shorter Pete Dye course. I think those three are the best ones. Stadium course at PGA West, TBC Sourgrass, and TBC River Highlands. If you want to look at TBC Louisiana too, I like that one as well. It's a little bit longer. TBC Louisiana where they do the team event, but that's a very good one. Same agronomy, Pete Dye, ton of risk reward.
I don't love Harbor town as much, um, which kind of just revs up the positional and the, the tree lined aspect of it, but they're all fine. I think probably Highlands where they have the travelers, PGA West stadium course in Sawgrass are my favorite, but essentially, uh,
I just want good iron players and guys that can play aggressively and make a ton of birdies this week. Like I'm keeping it pretty simple here. I don't think you have to be super accurate here or a bomber off the tee by any means. Guys like Horschel and Kisner and Kuchar have been so good here. So I'm barely putting any weight into off the tee.
I think approach will be super important and I'll have a heavy weight on approach, a little bit of short game just because these greens are very small, but mostly I'm just going to look at sand saves in that category because of all the bunkers. I'll look at putting at these same five group of courses, right? That have the overseeded Bermuda, the guys who've putted well at Sawgrass and Innisbrook and PGA West and Scottsdale and
Right. And Valero. And I'll put a heavy emphasis on stats like birdies are better gained and opportunities gained. That should help me be able to identify guys that can really heat up and give themselves a ton of scoring opportunities.
And then, like I said, I'm going to throw in how players have performed at those comp courses. Right. And how guys have performed in this tournament since 2016. And that'll be about it. Right. I, I will absolutely lean on my model, but I don't really think that you have to make a model this week. I would say, trust your gut, you know,
Don't just pick all the favorites because that's not how it works. Don't just pick upsets for the sake of picking upsets. In fact, probably consider the fact that a lot of the really elite players, you know, it's an interesting schedule spot is right before Augusta. Right. And I think that's maybe part of the reason why the last three years you've gotten the 32nd, the 48th, the 35th seed have won.
And those guys have all been above 50 to one. You know, you're Kisner and Horschel and Kuchar type that maybe aren't saying to themselves, I'm going to win the Masters, but are still like good players, right? That can step up to the plate. And this is a good golf course for them. Once say that.
One thing I will say that I'm not going to be really entertaining too heavily is the idea of like, okay, is this guy a good match play player? Like I'm sure, I'm sure a lot of people are going to look at Ryder cup performance this week. I don't really love that to be honest with you. I think the Ryder cup is such an isolated thing.
and strange and different tournament with such a distinctive environment and the atmosphere is it's usually played on such a completely different golf course i mean i went this year and it's like you got the whole team cheering you on on every single hole and following you and you got like phil in your ear who's telling you what shots to hit and they have these pods in the team room and
It's just it's different. It's different. And I bet you the narrative is going to be ramped up even more this year because Pete Dye also designed Whistling Straits. Let me tell you, this course is nothing like Whistling Straits. Whistling Straits is 800 yards longer than this course and places a huge emphasis on power off the tee and long iron play. And that's why I thought the Kevin Kisner Ryder Cup arguments were so fucking dumb.
It's like, oh, he's a good match play player. It's like, yeah, he's a good match play player when he's on a 7,000-yard Bermuda course. That doesn't mean he's going to be a good match play player when he's on a 7,800-yard course with a fucking long iron in his hands on every hole. You know? So...
I think there are some exceptions that don't necessarily prove the rule, but maybe like Ian Poulter is an example who actually also sucked at whistling straights, but just for whatever reason is so good in this format, he definitely gets a bump, of course. But even the idea that like, oh, let's try and figure out like, is this guy a dog or he's tough and a good match play guy?
Like, how do you expect to quantify that? Like, does Matt Kuchar strike you as tough because he's been awesome here? Just Jason Day or Luke Donald or Hunter Mahan?
I don't think we can quantify how a player's personality might translate to them being a good match play player. I think we can quantify how a player's skill set might translate to them being a good match play player. And that's why I'm still looking at certain stats this week. But I'm not too concerned with like, oh, this guy's been good at the Ryder Cup. It's so, so different. It's such a different atmosphere and setting and golf course. And the whole Ryder Cup thing is,
is predicated on this team element, which is completely what drives the players. And they're all in this team room together, right? And feeding off each other and feeding off each other's energy. And the event is just nothing like that, right? So a couple examples of what I'm talking about here.
Matt Kuchar, awesome here, not great in the Ryder Cups. Dustin Johnson, who's also won here. Up until this year, he's had a pretty mediocre historic Ryder Cup and President's Cup record. Jason Day, another example, pretty mediocre Ryder and President's Cup record. He's 5-11-4 in President's Cups and been awesome here.
So my only point is, I just don't think it's completely translatable. I think the setting and the environment of this event is just, it's very different. Of course, there are examples of players that are both good in this match play and good in the Ryder Cup. Ian Poulter, for the most part. Luke Donald has been good here and good in the Ryder Cup. But I would just much rather look at how players have done
on this golf course in this event. And if they also happen to be good in the Ryder Cup or the President's Cup, or they won a match play college event or the USM, that's a great bonus, but it won't be enough to put me on or off a guy.
And that's an edge I think I may use. I think you're going to hear a lot of, look at this guy's historic match play record. And people are going to really use that to make decisions. And I'm more so of the mindset of, actually, let's just look at how this player fits on this golf course. And who knows? Maybe that will help me differentiate a little bit on draft kicks. Maybe. Who knows? That's just what I'm doing. I could be wrong. But personally, I would rather just have guys that I think are
fit this course really well than guys that have played well at the Ryder Cup or have like the feel of a good match play player. I do think history at this course matters, but even so, Billy Horschel never made it out of the group stage here before winning. Never.
Um, but look at the corollary courses and he won the Zurich classic and he's been really good on some of these other shorter positional courses. Bubba lost in the group stage. Um, wasn't good here the two years before he run, but he's like the king of the travelers. DJ who also won here, won the travelers good at the players. Brian Harmon, who's been great at this event.
Awesome at the Travelers and the Players and the Amex, right? So I think looking at tournament history is kind of tricky because what if you played really well that day and you just got unlucky with playing somebody that was better than you? So I think that happened at Cantlay last year where someone was calculating the true strokes gained and Cantlay was up there, but he didn't make it out of the group stage.
So I want you to have played Austin Country Club before, but I also do think that we can gleam some more info from how you've played at some of these corollary courses.
And then like form to like in 2016, Jason Day came in really hot. He won the week before DJ came in really hot. He went third, third win and then won this. Bubba had a win in his last three starts. Kisner even had five top top 30 finishes in a row prior to his win.
Billy had a runner up in his last three starts. So I really just, I want to identify players that have ideally played well at this course or the other courses that I'm looking at are coming in with good form and are really good iron players who make a lot of birdies. So that's it. I'm keeping it pretty simple this week. All right, let's look at the model. Well, I should say somewhat simple because I still simpler than most weeks, but I still have
you know, I'm looking at all the different putting splits from how these guys have done it. Sawgrass and Innisbrook and PGA West and TPC Scottsdale and TPC San Antonio. But to get all of the actual weights and dispersions, check out my article on rickrungood.com, coupon code Andy. But not very heavy on off the tee, pretty heavy on approach, a little bit of sand saves.
fair amount of putting, right? I think you got to roll the rock at an event like this. Pretty heavy on scoring stats, like birdies are better gained, opportunities gained, and then looking pretty heavily at the comp courses, like TBC River Highlands and TBC Sawgrass and PGA West Stadium course and how guys have performed on that. And I threw all that together and here's who it shot out. So for the first time,
In weeks. Honestly, I think that the first time in as long as I can remember, Jon Rahm is not number one in the model. See, he sucks now. He's slipping. He's number two. Justin Thomas is number one. I have Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Victor Hovland, who...
As one, two, and three, who I think are the best players in the world right now. And then number four is Russell Henley, who gets him a little bit later, I guess. But five is Bryson, who I think is very interesting this week. I think this is actually a pretty good spot for Bryson if he's healthy. So I'm very curious to see where the wind blows with Bryson this week because there's a lot of concerns about his health, but he's in the field.
Six, I have Adam Scott, which is a little surprising to me. Adam Scott usually doesn't pop up this highly for me. Sam Burns is number seven. Patrick Cantlay is number eight, which is a little worse on Cantlay than I thought. And then you have Scheffler, Berger, DJ, Paul Casey. All of that checks out. My guy, Tom Hoagie, Shane Lowry, Taylor Gooch, Colin Murakawa, Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson, Will Zalatour, Sung J.M.,
Not a ton of surprises. I guess maybe the fact that JT rated out a little bit better than Rom, that Henley was so high, that Adam Scott was so high. I guess that Colin was a little bit lower than I thought. But let's talk about early leads, which our hands are a little bit tied with this segment because I can give you players that I'm targeting, but if the
Two or three of the guys that I talk about are in the same group. Obviously, I'm going to pivot. I don't recommend that you bet multiple guys that are in the same group. I wouldn't do that. But let's talk about a couple guys that if they have the good side of the draw that I'm going to have my eye on. So I already mentioned Rom. You know, if Rom's like 16 to one, I'm going to be very interested in him again. You know,
He lost, like I said, he's gotten 7.9, 5.2, 4.5, 7.2 off the tee. It's the best stretch off the tee stretch of his career. The last time that he lost strokes off the tee was the 2019 Tour Championship, right? So when guys are hitting it this well, I'm just going to keep playing them.
Um, for better or worse. And, you know, at least the putter like improved a little bit at the players. Um, you know, he's lost over stroke putting in four straight starts, but it got a little bit better at the players. I don't think there's like anything wrong with his putting stroke. When I watched him, they're just not going in right now.
So I'm going to keep playing him. I don't know how you don't. And I think we'll even get a bit of a price decrease because people are so fed up with him. And, you know, maybe we get a 16, 17 to one. We'll see. I'm going to keep my eye on that one. And then Russell Henley, who just rates out.
so damn well here. He's not long off the tee, but he's extremely accurate. One of the best iron players in the world. He's got a really good short game. He's a good putter too. And he gives himself, because he's such a good wedge player, he gives himself so many chances and he converts on them too. Like he makes a lot of birdies. He's been good on these overseeded Bermuda greens and good at this type of course as well. I think he's
I think he's really the type of player that you want to be looking at on shorter Pete Dye courses. He's been great at the Travelers, 14th at the Amex this year, just finished 13th at the Players. And he gained 11.5 on approach at the Players. And he's just 11.5 on approach at the Players. He's been playing some really incredible golf for a really long time now. First of all, he hasn't missed a cut since the fucking British Open.
And then this season he's gone second, which should have been a first 14th, 33rd, 33rd, 13th, 13th. And I mean, I was on him at the Sony, like I think a lot of people were. And, you know, he just completely folded down the stretch and he could have, you know, he could have really kind of like gone into a cave after the Sony. That was that was pretty devastating. He was up five with nine holes to play and he gagged it.
And since the Sony isn't finished outside the top 30 in five starts in all in really damn good fields. Right. And I think that says something. I think that says that he's just a really good player. And I think that this course is a perfect fit for him. I think he's in playing incredible golf right now. I understand he's a little shaky off the tee, but I don't think that's all that important this week. And I think what he's been doing with his irons right now is pretty next level stuff. He hit the ball well enough to win the players last week.
And I legitimately believe Henley is good enough to win this. So he will be a bet for me, probably, depending on the draw. But he's in that kind of Kuchar and Kisner and Horschel mold where he'll probably have the same odds as one of those guys. Not a super elite player, but good, trending well. Probably not have to worry about like,
he's gearing up because he thinks he can win the masters. Like he just wants a win and it's a good golf course for him. So I like Russell Henley a lot. And then three other guys that I'm kind of interested in, uh, depending on their seating and their draw. I like Zalatoris here. I think he, I think this is a pretty good spot for Zalatoris. Um,
He continues to hit the ball great. He went 4.4, 2.9, 4.4 off the tee, 2.9 on approach. The ball striking actually got better for him. And he remains one of the best ball strikers in the world this year. But for the fifth consecutive week, the reason why he keeps suckering Mian is he's not like...
What's so interesting about Zalatoris is that pretty much every week for the past five weeks, he's lost between 1.3 and 1.9 strokes putting. So he's not like hemorrhaging strokes on the green. He's really not far off from putting well.
So I'm going to continue to trust Zalatoris' ball striking and play him here. He's a Texas guy too. That'll be another fun narrative after Scheffler almost won last year. So maybe that helps. Who knows? But I think if the number is right on Zalatoris, I could actually see Zalatoris winning this thing. I think it's a good spot for Zalatoris. I like this kind of like
mid-tier, not super elite player that I could see really sneaking up and winning this thing. Another guy like that is Leishman, who he's coming off a miscut at the players, but he's
barely right he missed the cut on the number and he was on the wrong side of the draw so i'm not really going to put a ton of stock into that whatsoever and i like the fact that he's been great at the travelers he's playing some great golf to start this year and he's made the knockout stage here twice so the stats are fine with him it's more of a a gut play than statistically based but i could just i see leishman winning this thing
All right. So I like Wiesman. He's another guy on my radar. And then I mentioned Adam Scott, who, you know, I was a little surprised how well Adam Scott rated out for me. But, you know, digging into it.
he gives himself a ton of birdie looks because he's, he's a really good wedge player and he's actually had some really nice success putting on these overseeded Bermuda greens. I do think he can get it done on this surface. Um, few players have been more consistently strong at TPC sawgrass and he actually finished 13th at TPC river Highlands last year. So here's another guy that missed the cut at the players. Um,
But I don't know. He was pretty popular at the API and I guess a little bit the players. I'm not going to say buy low on Adam Scott, but I think it's a pretty good spot for him. His irons were still great at the players. And I actually think he can absolutely play well in this course. So I could really see him winning this type of tournament. He might be a bet for me. I think he's a very solid DraftKings play too. But those are the guys that I'm kind of targeting.
Rom, Henley, Leishman, Scott, and Zalatoris, depending on where they are with the draw. Those are the guys I'm looking at. And a couple lower-priced guys that I'll throw out there for DraftKings. I like Max Homa a lot here. I like Hoagie. I like EVR. I like Siwoo Kim. I like Seamus Power. I like Luke Less, and I like Ian Poulter.
I think those guys are all going to be below 7.5 and I like him for DraftKings. So we're DraftKings week, by the way. We'll have to see what, yeah, so the tournament starts on Wednesday. So I usually release my DraftKings final thoughts article on Wednesday on rickrunkids.com.
Maybe a little bit shorter this week, but there's some interesting game theory strategy going on this week that I will definitely touch on. I guess I'll probably have to put that out like Tuesday afternoon. And then that will do it. You can check back on this podcast feed. I'm very excited for the bracket show. So the brackets, they get released on tomorrow, I think at like
noon Eastern. Right. And so this show, this tournament last year was the first time that I actually put out a real podcast with a guest. Um, so we're at the one year anniversary of inside golf pod. And of course, for this occasion, we're bringing back my original first guest, Luke sweated out to do a bracket show. So that is going to be very fun because we will
basically fill out our brackets and yell at each other the whole time. So that should probably be out Tuesday morning, right? Because we'll record that Monday evening and the brackets will come out on Monday afternoon. And then Scramble, Tuesdays and Fridays, we'll probably do some fun bracket stuff on there. Odd Shaker Articles,
Tuesdays and Fridays again. I probably have to like, cause I can't do round, round one, three balls. So I'll probably do like maybe a best bats out of each group. I think that'll be a fun article to write for them and full course preview as well available on rickrungood.com. I know I didn't do like a ton of deep divey stuff on the course. It's just
We don't have a ton of stats on it, but I expand on my thoughts on the course a lot more on that article on Monday. So check that out on rickrungood.com-andy. And that'll do it for me. Best of luck with all of your bets this week.
And we'll see you next time. Cheers.
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