cover of episode Turning Point: A New Security Order in the Middle East? | Joshua Landis

Turning Point: A New Security Order in the Middle East? | Joshua Landis

2024/10/28
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Demetri Kofinas
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Joshua Landis
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Demetri Kofinas: 本期节目讨论中东未来的两种可能性:持续冲突与不安全,以及建立在妥协和地区安全基础上的脆弱但充满希望的和平。讨论内容涵盖以色列与伊朗之间的战争、黎巴嫩战争、加沙战争、约旦河西岸定居点扩张、巴勒斯坦独立建国运动的未来、以色列政治的右倾转变、亚伯拉罕协议以及美以沙之间新的安全安排和伙伴关系的可能性。 Joshua Landis: 以色列在黎巴嫩和加沙的军事行动展示了前所未有的强大力量,这颠覆了真主党及其支持者关于其导弹技术能够保护黎巴嫩的信念。虽然暗杀真主党领导层不会摧毁真主党,但它确实展示了以色列的强大力量,并改变了中东地区的现实。美国过去二十年在中东的干预(包括伊拉克和叙利亚)并未带来积极成果,反而加剧了冲突和不稳定。中东国家内部的深刻教派和种族分裂削弱了它们有效应对挑战的能力,化解地区冲突是最好的办法,但这需要时间。美国未能促成中东和平,反而支持以色列获取更多领土,这导致了持续的冲突。巴勒斯坦问题没有得到解决,因为以色列没有放弃被占领土,并且在这些地区建立了定居点,这导致了持续的冲突和巴勒斯坦人民的压迫。以色列的安全担忧是真实的,但解决巴勒斯坦问题可以减少伊朗等外部势力对该地区的影响。许多美国人对以色列的看法仍然停留在奥斯陆协议时期,这与以色列当前的政治现实脱节。以色列政府的目标是吞并约旦河西岸,驱逐巴勒斯坦人,这表明以色列政治发生了根本性转变。美国对以色列的支持根深蒂固,这与美国社会对犹太人的普遍好感以及宗教和政治因素有关。

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The attacks on Hezbollah revealed the limitations of their rocket strategy against Israel's superior power. The devastation inflicted on Hezbollah demonstrates a shift in the balance of power, raising questions about the future of Lebanon and the effectiveness of resistance tactics.
  • Hezbollah suffered significant casualties and damage in the attacks.
  • Israel demonstrated overwhelming military power.
  • The effectiveness of Hezbollah's rocket strategy is questioned.
  • The future of Lebanon's political landscape is uncertain.

Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 386) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis about two possible futures for the Middle East: The first will be defined by perpetual conflict, insecurity, and the specter of nuclear proliferation. The second would be defined by a tenuous, albeit hopeful, peace built on compromise and regional security. Professor Landis explains why he believes that this choice is now upon us and that we are at a turning point in the Middle East that provides us with a glimpse into what the future of this conflict-ridden region will look like and how it will fit into the larger global security order (or disorder) that is currently emerging. Between the first and second hours of this conversation, Dr. Landis and Kofinas discuss the wider war between Israel and Iran, the implications of the ongoing war in Lebanon, the Israeli war and occupation of Gaza, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, the future of the Palestinian movement for independent statehood, the rightward shift in Israeli politics, the status of the Abraham Accords, and the prospects for a new security arrangement and partnership between the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia that could result in a historic reset of the political and economic status quo in this still vital region of the world. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts) | YouTube) | Spotify) | Stitcher) | SoundCloud) | CastBox) | RSS Feed) Write us a review on Apple Podcasts) & Spotify) Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/) Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas) Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io) Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 10/23/2024