cover of episode Semiconductors, Tariffs, & Chip Restrictions Under Trump | Chris Miller

Semiconductors, Tariffs, & Chip Restrictions Under Trump | Chris Miller

2024/11/11
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Demetri Kofinas
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Demetri Kofinas：本期节目讨论特朗普2024年大选获胜对半导体产业的影响，涵盖产业政策、国防开支、关税、出口管制、贸易战等多个方面，深入探讨半导体供应链、芯片法案资金分配、美国国内半导体制造进展、台积电亚利桑那工厂挑战、英特尔困境、对华半导体出口管制效果、中国芯片生态系统建设、以及人工智能数据中心规模化限制因素等议题。 Chris Miller：奥巴马、特朗普第一任期和拜登政府在补贴国内制造、限制中国和关税方面，政策走向惊人一致。特朗普政府可能会延续前几届政府的政策，但在关税和芯片等问题上的力度可能会有所不同。自《芯片战争》出版以来，美国与中国的紧张关系、人工智能的投资激增以及全球电子产品供应链的转变，都对半导体行业产生了深远的影响。半导体行业需要适应与中国竞争和限制的新环境，而其他行业则需要理解对人工智能和数据中心的投资。中国在半导体领域的投资大幅增加，但在高端芯片制造方面仍落后于其他国家。中国在低端芯片制造方面的投资最多，未来几年其产能将大幅增加。中国发展低端芯片制造，部分原因是为了在与西方国家潜在冲突中保持独立性。中国在低端芯片领域的巨额投资对西方公司在该领域的投资产生了抑制作用。美国《芯片法案》等措施旨在抵消中国对低端芯片市场的补贴，但中国补贴的规模远大于西方的补贴。美国政府正在考虑对中国芯片征收组件级关税，以应对绕过直接进口限制的做法。精准打击难以奏效，未来可能会出现更广泛的禁令。中国控制某些细分市场可能会对西方公司和政治产生影响。关于中国能否在人工智能方面超越美国，需要区分战略利益和经济利益。美国希望其公司在人工智能基础设施方面保持领先地位，以确保其在未来人工智能领域的监管和能力方面拥有影响力。对中国的出口管制在一定程度上奏效，但同时也存在明显的漏洞。中国对人工智能芯片的需求量很大，这表明出口管制对中国造成了影响。数据、计算能力和能源是人工智能发展的三大关键限制因素。发达国家对机器人的需求可能比发展中国家更大，因为发达国家的劳动力成本更高。出口管制对某些类型的工具（如EUV光刻机）非常有效，但对芯片制造工具和GPU的管制效果较差。中国利用空壳公司和台湾的生产能力来规避制裁。出口管制漏洞未能及时关闭的原因包括行政能力不足、市场准入问题以及对中国报复的担忧。美国可能更多地使用天然气来为数据中心供电，即使这会影响碳中和目标。中国目前似乎没有像美国那样大规模建设数据中心集群。中国政府对人工智能的消费者应用持谨慎态度，这可能是导致中国数据中心集群规模较小的原因之一。美国对数据中心能源供应的监管可能会与中国类似，因为缺乏政治支持。

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Chapters
Chris Miller discusses the potential implications of Trump's 2024 election win on semiconductor industrial policy, including tariffs, export controls, and trade wars with China. The discussion covers how these policies have evolved under recent administrations and what a second Trump term might mean for their future.
  • Trump's potential impact on industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, and trade wars is uncertain.
  • Recent administrations have shown surprising unity on semiconductor and China policies.
  • Trump's focus on tariffs raises questions about the level of restrictions on China and domestic manufacturing subsidies.

Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 388) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with semiconductor expert Chris Miller about the state and future of the semiconductor industry in the context of Trump’s 2024 U.S. electoral victory, with all its implications for industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, export controls, trade wars, and much more. This conversation is a deep-dive into the semiconductor supply chain. Kofinas and Miller discuss how money is currently being allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, the progress being made in domestic U.S. semiconductor fabrication, the challenges facing TSMC’s Arizona facility, and the troubles at Intel. They also take a hard look at the outcomes resulting from the U.S. semiconductor export and end-use controls implemented against China, how effective or ineffective they’ve been, and ways to improve them. They also assess China’s own efforts at building out its domestic chip ecosystem and some of the loopholes that Chinese companies are systematically exploiting in order to become fully independent of and eventually overtake Western chipmakers and equipment manufacturers. They discuss the three largest limiting factors to scaling AI data centers, the national security threat posed by Chinese companies leapfrogging their U.S. competitors in the race toward AGI, and much more. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts) | YouTube) | Spotify) | Stitcher) | SoundCloud) | CastBox) | RSS Feed) Write us a review on Apple Podcasts) & Spotify) Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/) Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas) Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io) Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 11/06/2024