Shownotes Transcript
Forecasting resources
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (amazon) goodreads))
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (book) by Nate Silver (amazon) goodreads))
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (book) by Douglas Hubbard (amazon) goodreads))
Planning Fallacy) (article) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Discusses Inside/Outside view as well.
Self calibration
AirTable calibration template) by Ben Pence
Notion.so calibration template) by Ben Pence
Credence Calibration Game) by Alexei Andreev, Zachary Alethia, and Andrew Critch
Decision Journal) (more qualitative)
Prediction Markets
InTrade) (inactive)
Prediction Markets) (article) by Gwern
Music
Intro music: Vlog Music Cafe Type Hip-Hop Instrumental Chill Lo-Fi Beat by Oliwia Orłowska)
Outro music: Game Over [Super Mario World Lofi/hiphop remix] by Neighborhood Vandal)
Transcript available at https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting)