cover of episode Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

2024/11/13
logo of podcast Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Podcast
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
G
Gwern Branwen
Topics
Gwern Branwen认为匿名的最大好处在于避免人们的主观臆断，使人们不得不认真对待他的观点。他认为公司自动化将从底层员工开始，逐步向上发展，最终由人类高管监督AI团队。他预测未来公司将由人类CEO负责战略规划，AI团队负责执行。在AGI到来之前，他将专注于AI无法替代的领域，例如个人偏好和价值判断。他认为写作是影响未来AGI发展的重要方式，可以确保个人的价值观和个性在AI的潜在空间中得以延续。他认为长期稳定的个人特征可以从写作痕迹中恢复，而短暂的、易忘的记忆则难以恢复。他对人类智能和神经网络智能之间的关系存在持续的疑问。他喜欢深入研究各种话题，并将此视为生活中最重要的追求。他从小就对各种话题充满热情，这种习惯一直延续至今。听力障碍使他成为一个书虫，并影响了他的语言表达方式。编辑维基百科是他重要的学习经历。如果没有互联网，他可能会从事学术研究或在大型科技公司工作。当前的AI模型缺乏足够的训练数据来实现真正的自主性。他认为写作是影响未来AGI发展的重要方式，可以确保个人的价值观和个性在AI的潜在空间中得以延续。他从与网民的争论中获得了很多益处。他对网站设计投入大量时间，是因为他个人喜欢，而不是为了社会效益。他的主要收入来源是赞助和储蓄。AI模型在认知方面比人类更加多样化。GLP药物的减肥效果让他感到惊讶，并认为这将对人类意志和功能产生重要影响。他相信环境中存在某种物质对人类健康有害。他对使用精神药物持谨慎态度，更倾向于使用营养补充剂。他对人类自身的一些重大问题感到好奇，希望在2050年之前能够找到答案。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Gwern discusses the benefits of anonymity, including reduced projection and the ability to hear all perspectives without immediate dismissal.
  • Anonymity reduces projection and allows for more genuine interactions.
  • People can't slot you into a preconceived identity, leading to more authentic engagement.
  • Anonymity allows for hearing all perspectives without immediate context-based dismissal.

Shownotes Transcript

Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog), you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive.

In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter) voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed.

After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here) to contribute.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts), Spotify), or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here). Follow me on Twitter) for updates on future episodes.

Sponsors:

  • Jane Street) is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go here: https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh)

  • Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at )turing.com/dwarkesh).

  • This episode is brought to you by Stripe), financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.

If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page).

Timestamps

00:00:00 - Anonymity

00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs

00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress

00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence

00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early

00:21:04 - AGI Timelines

00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI

00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing

00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence

00:33:52 - Rabbit holes

00:38:48 - Hearing impairment

00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing

00:47:43 - Gwern.net

00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers

00:54:30 - Borges & literature

01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process

01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern

01:17:50 - Gwern's finances

01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds

01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity

01:31:08 - Drug experimentation

01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships

01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe)