cover of episode Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner

Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner

2024/8/9
logo of podcast BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Bill Gurley
B
Brad Gerstner
Topics
Brad Gerstner认为近期市场波动是健康回调，但需关注税收、盈利、AI市场风险、地缘政治等因素。他根据风险回报比调整投资策略，并认为美联储降息对市场影响有限，经济增长、失业率和通胀才是关键。他还分析了AI领域的资本支出和营收匹配风险，以及大型科技公司对独立AI公司的潜在压制。最后，他讨论了日本日元套利交易逆转对市场的影响，以及AI搜索引擎的市场前景和用户参与度问题。 Bill Gurley则关注AI领域的供需错配风险，以及大型科技公司在AI领域的快速反应和积极投资。他认为，当前AI增强型搜索引擎的用户参与度和留存率不足以使其成为颠覆性产品，未来的突破性进展可能在于个性化AI助手。他还分析了谷歌反垄断案的裁决及其潜在影响，并对科技公司采用‘take under’而非直接收购的方式来规避监管审查表示担忧。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent market downturn, comparing it to the 1987 crash. It discusses the S&P and Nasdaq drops, the impact on various sectors, and the shift in risk-reward ratios from early 2023 to early 2024. The discussion also touches upon the importance of active management and adapting to changing market conditions.
  • S&P down 8%, QQQ down 11%, MAG7 down a trillion dollars
  • Market up 60% since Q1 2023, Qs up nearly 80% at peak in July
  • Shift from positive to negative risk-reward skew
  • Reduction in units of risk from 9 to 3

Shownotes Transcript

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss the Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling, Search GPT & more Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:27) Public Market Reset 

(13:04) Corporate and Individual Tax Cut Expiration

(16:40) Indicators of Economic Health

(30:40) AI Air Pocket

(46:02) Japan Yen Carry Trade

(50:34) Navigating Market Volatility 

(56:30) $GOOG Ruling & Monopoly Status 

(01:05:21) Search GPT and Evolving AI Landscape

(1:18:17) The Need for Regulatory Clarity in AI

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com)

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap)

Bill Gurley @bgurley)

BG2 Pod @bg2pod)