People imagine a recession is when masses of people are being laid off and so consumer spending isn't just negative, it must be crashing. While those can happen in a downturn, they tend to show up at the end. So, if you're waiting for those to make a determination you'll be way too late. Evidence consistently and conclusively shows hiring not firing creates the recession environment that is marked by a drop in real spending. We have both.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment∗https://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdf
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Announced by US-Based Companies Surge in August 2024; Hiring Falls to Lowest YTD Since Challenger Began Tracking in 2005https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-in-august-2024-hiring-falls-to-lowest-ytd-since-challenger-began-tracking-in-2005/
NYT Layoffs Are Few. So Why Are Jobs Harder to Find?https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/business/economy/layoffs-jobs-economy.html
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