Is the Economy on the Brink of Another 2001-Style Crash
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Good evening, everyone. Welcome to euro university. You've got a lot to talk about, especially given the situation in certain market places and the interpretation of maybe a huge change in the political situation, the united states leading to a potential rebound and economic fortune and circumstances. I think that that the so called trump trade has gotten not just quite a lot of attention, but that seems to have gotten a lot of people believing in IT.

Um and it's understandable with why that would be because anything different now given where we just came from, seems like IT has to play IT has to plan out sively um after the last several years of at best slugged h growth and at worst economic and labor market circumstances that seem to be heading for a recession um just changing things up and IT seems like you know political um government uh policies and everything else appear to be substantial enough to anything different is interpreted as good. So whatever you believe about the prospects for the trump administration of what I wanted to do here today is to review where we are in this process before we even get to IT. So regardless of what you think of trump is what his potential policies might be, we do need to understand and really appreciate that there is a fast difference between twenty twenty four, the new trump administration coming in twenty five versus where he was in twenty sixteen.

We really stop and look at things. The current, the real comparison isn't two, twenty sixteen and where where trump started the first administration and more or more resembles two thousand, one at the very least. And they'll see I i'll show you what I mean in just a moment.

So it's understandable that a different administration, something different, must be good. And while that could potentially be the case, the chAllenge facing that new administration, regardless of how different that is, is far greater than is being appreciated, which means of eve, a much bigger hole to dig out um starting this time around versus other other periods. That's why again, IT looks IT resembles a lot more of the bush administration than not um so that make a compare sincere we'll compared to what's happening today with twenty sixteen when trump started the first time.

So you can see the differences there with the the contrast really, really sharpens what we're talking about as well as we'll do some persons with two thousand, one superficially as well as more than just you know the incoming bush administration got the markets excited about the prospect of something very different because the last year of the clink administration in two thousand was a lot like twenty, twenty three and twenty twenty four things. We're going wrong. And there was a lot of hopes pin down the brain, new supposedly business friendly bushed administration changing things up before things before the situation got to be what I actually became in two thousand one.

So is lots of comparisons that fit more over two thousand, one and twenty sixteen. And then beyond both of those, we've got we ve got much, much deeper and really a bigger chAllenges far as the structural problems that are facing not just the U. S.

Economy, but the entire global economy related to the leftovers from the supply shock of the last couple years. This is the nominal versus real problem. And IT is a very real problem and a very big one for anybody to face, little alone governments. I mean, first of all, I think we give any administration, any governmental situation. We give them way too much credit, way too much we've too much blame at times for the their ability to either impact the economy or is a lot of people believe that they actually change, they actually run the economy.

Um so there's a lot of things that we need to take into account before even get to what the new incoming trump t administration might, might, might look like and what that might be able to accomplish because like I said, the overwriting theme here is that the chAllenging the chAllenge facing the administration as IT comes in is far greater than is being appreciated right now. IT starts with the signal stuff. So if we compared just twenty twenty four to twenty sixteen to get a sense of what I mean here, just just sort of calibrated expectations, look back at twenty sixteen versus twenty twenty four, IT starts with what a lot of people are, are using as a basis for comparison with twenty sixteen.

And that's to sell off in the bond market because in twenty sixteen, we also got the same thing that was triggered in large part by trumps shock win in the twenty sixteen president for contest. And then IT was the same idea that after the malaysia of the obama ministration. And by the way, this is not a partisan thing all at all.

For anybody that has watched this channel or knows me, has followed me for a very long period of time. They know that I don't care which party IT is. So as far as i'm concerned, they both absolutely suck.

When IT comes to economic, I we say there's differences in other, other, other areas. But as far as economics go, this is a bay partisan failure. Open all all across the board.

So when trump was elected in twenty sixteen, there was the same immediate impulse that maybe something different would be Better than the obama ministration. And let's let's also remember that obama inherited great, not recession from the bush administration. So bipartisan failure up all along the entire of entire history to twenty tens.

So there's a major cell off in the bond market, especially long term industry. Tes in october in heading IT in really november of twenty sixteen. Same thing is what we have seen here though.

The cell off in twenty twenty four goes back to september of twenty twenty four, which wasn't necessarily triggered, in my opinion by the rising prospects of a true Victory so much as IT was the usual historical pattern。 And you'll see what I mean, when do the two thousand one comparison? But other than that, super that that relative relatively superficial comparison.

Notice that the rest of the marketplace looks nothing like twenty sixteen. Where's in twenty sixteen? We had short term rates that we're starting to rise. Fed starting to raise rates because the cycle head shifted from a downturn in two thousand fourteen, two thousand fifteen. In the early part of two thousand sixteen, the fed begins raising rates because during reflationary peers, that's what the food does.

They were recognizing the improving conditions that started to turn around before we've even got to the real meat of the election season in twenty sixteen. Where is in twenty twenty four? We're going in the opposite direction.

And not just in terms of federal sir policy, but federal err policy that is a recognition of these cyclical conditions. So already beside they sell off in the long term part of the year curve. The short term part of the year curve could not be more different, which is again the suggestion of the cyclical differences here.

Comparing some of the macro statistics, you also see big change, big difference using the establishment survey payroll in twenty sixteen, twenty fifteen and to twenty sixteen. You saw some in the labor market, but IT wasn't ever wasn't ever really too close to the to the recession danger zone, certainly not the establishment really little. A different household survey is usually as is usually the case where is in twenty twenty four, especially over the summer time, we can see a real drop in payer and the payroll numbers as a shown in just a minute here.

It's it's even worse manufacturing and benchmark visions that are coming. There's much more of a sync ical downturn evident and the payroll numbers in twenty twenty four versus twenty sixteen. When we look at some of the other ones, you can see that in actuality, things were beginning to improve, not this year of the housework survey, the household survey in twenty and twenty four, much worse than in twenty sixteen.

In fact, it's been worse for a lot longer. Even though there's a lot of variation in the household survey, the average is close to zero. In fact, employment in the housework survey going back to last year is actually slightly negative. So for a thirteen months period, employment according to the cps numbers is lower, wherein twenty sixteen IT had kind of back and forth.

There was a little of an upturn late in twenty fifteen and early twenty sixteen and then back into maybe a little bit slower of of employment growth in the latter part of twenty sixteen, but not really the same type of sharp cyclical downturn that you see currently in twenty twenty four. So much bigger danger this time around the unemployment rate, however, going in different directions that continue to move lower during twenty fifteen, though a lot of that had to do with labor force participation. We still have this labor force participation problem here in twenty twenty four.

But the unemployment rate, even though it's low over the last couple months, that is continuing to be on the upside as well. Another cyclical indication that unlike twenty sixteen, twenty twenty four is already moving in the wrong direction toward the downside incomes, which is a huge one. Um use and using the six months change, you can also use the three months change.

You see the same thing. You can also see the incomes which had slow down. Now the primary reason why there was such a big downturn heading into twenty fifteen, IT already begun to turn around in the middle of twenty sixteen before even get to the election.

So nominal incomes were already starting to rise in the middle twenty sixteen, wherein twenty twenty four they're going in the opposite direction. source. That's another one that suggests the signal part of the economy, of the cyclical forces in the economy are moving in the opposite direction here in twenty twenty four veris what they were doing in twenty sixteen.

Same thing for real incomes. Um real persons incomes are excluding transfer receipt, which is one of the income statistics that the mbr uses to judge uh, official recessions. Not that we necessarily care about the nbr, but this is A A very critical indication of how much income the private economy is generating and putting IT in real terms.

Not that there was a huge amount consumer Price changes or inflation in twenty sixteen, but again, you see that there was a definitely a slow down in twenty fifteen consistent with the downturn, but IT in the another slowdown in early twenty sixteen. But I never went any farther than that. And by the later middle part of twenty six cent into later part before we get to the election of prob, IT was already moving back to the plus side.

Where is here in twenty twenty four? Real incomes are actually worse than you can see in the chart here really understates the weakness. But on and a signal basis, like all the rest of dead that we're going over here from the beginning of twenty twenty four and really the middle part of twenty twenty four, we're moving in the wrong direction.

The signal direction is lower here, not heading back higher again. Energy Prices um energy Prices were moving up off the bottom in twenty sixteen. Where is in twenty twenty four? They're moving in the opposite direction as well. And again, for the same reasons back in twenty sixteen, while everybody blame low energy places, oil and gasoline and a supply gyr doing the same thing in twenty twenty four, it's really about demand. And so demand was beginning to come back.

Or at the very least, the energy marketplace in early twenty sixteen forecast that demand was started to come back and not just in the us, but globally, especially in china, as i'll go over just a set here. So energy Prices were on the rebound, which sounds like it's a bad thing. And IT is in terms of individual consumers, rising gasoline Prices are always attacks and consumer spending power, but the circumstances that lead to energy Prices going in one direction of the other are what we're really interested in when when oil Prices are going up.

That usually means that because demand is rising due to the fact that the economy is, in this case, rebounding in twenty sixteen, where is in twenty twenty four? And this is not just about china. Weakness across the global economy, including the night status as we see in gillion Prices, is leading to a downturn in energy cost, which is again sounds like a good thing for individual consumers.

But the reasons why energy Prices are moving lower, that's what we're concerned about. And it's consistent with the the different, different stage of the cycle, twenty sixteen versus twenty twenty four, twenty sixteen things we're starting to pick up by the middle the year. Where is in twenty and twenty four, we're still heading in the wrong direction.

It's got to the point where the W T I. Curve is also nearly back in content ago, which is not just a seasonal the usual seasonal pattern that we see at this time of year. Um the the entire energy market around the world is expecting that there will be a oversupply situation in the relative the return future.

It's more about lack of demand than IT is necessarily about supply coming back from OPEC or replacement supplied. Various places around the united states and especially united states becoming the world's largest producer. Essentially, we have again twenty sixteen versus twenty and twenty four energy Prices on the upside and twenty sixteen heading into the election on the downside and twenty twenty four and that didn't change with the election in twenty twenty.

Now the one coper to gold, that's a ratio I point out all the time. And coper to gold in twenty and twenty four has compared to the levels in twenty sixteen. Back when china was falling off, emerging markets were experiencing conditions that were consistent with depression.

So copper, the goal got really low and then suddenly started to surge higher around september and october of twenty sixteen. And we did take a big leg higher around the election because that was another thing that was different. But I don't necessarily believe that was because of the trump l election as IT was.

Chinese stimulus spending was back with beginning to have a major impact in the general economy around the rest of the world, including it's affects on copper well as a little bit of a depression and gold Prices too. So copper to gold and copper Prices, that's why copper to gold, the ratio was rising. Copper Prices really began to sore september into october of twenty sixteen.

Where is in twenty twenty four, despite the fact that chinese are on the surface appearing to do the same levels of stimulus, at least the numbers being thrown around, nothing the same. I can tell. I can show you that.

So despite the fact that the chinese is doing a tremendous amount of stimulus here in twenty twenty four, the copper market, the gold market, they are not really buying. And even though the copper and gold are both down over the last several days, copper is down more than gold is, which brings the copper, the gold ratio back down tard. It's twenty sixteen lows or it's twenty twenty lows or late two thousand and eight and early two thousand and nine.

There is nothing that has shifted as far as the copper and gold Prices that would suggest things are turning around. Again, another key cyclical indicator that we're still heading in the wrong direction as far as these cyclical swings go in. One last thing comparing to twenty sixteen chinese bonds. As you can see there, chinese bonds have begun to sell off a rate around the time the copper shifted. So september and really october, heading into november of twenty sixteen, the chinese bond market began to sense that there was a at least a short run impact from chinese government spending.

The major stimulus pack package that was unveiled in two thousand six started to have an impact in the middle part of that year, which is one of the major reasons why, one major reasons that contributed to the cyclical upturn, the economy, heading into late twenty sixteen and into twenty seventeen, what became called globally synchronised growth. Where is in twenty, twenty, twenty four? We don't see again the same type of response from the bond market, really any market outside of the stock market where IT indicates a shift in the cycle from a downturn previously toward an upturn heading into the later part this year, next year, quite the contrary from chinese perspective as well as all the others are gone over bar signals that suggest the signal ical part of the U.

S. And global economy remain on the down swing. Very different circumstances in twenty twenty four versus twenty sixteen. There's not one thing or another we're talking about coppa goal, which is more global the'd focus out on china chinese bonds, therefore, A A an indication of how the marketplace is viewing the potential for the chinese government plans, which don't really amount to all that much energy Prices on the upswing in twenty sixteen, on the downswing, in twenty twenty four, the labor market in the us.

Of big one, especially nominal incomes, nominal incomes are slowing way down into the danger zone, wherein twenty sixteen, they were kind of on the way back up already and they would continue to rise, especially in appeared where consumer Prices and inflation was much less back than verses now, which is why there is a big difference in in terms of of real incomes. As so we step back and look at where we are in twenty and twenty four years of twenty sixteen. There are not a lot of similarities.

In fact, there really aren't any in terms of signal conditions in the economy. Twenty twenty four looks like it's heading lower. Where's twenty sixteen? Was as I said, keep saying it's IT was having higher, which suggests a whole lot of similarities not with twenty sixteen more so with two thousand one and more than you think two you think back to two thousand one if you're old enough like me remember IT um two thousand one started out with under the cloud of suspicion recession, but also there was a burst of optimism because of the incoming bush administration.

As I mentioned in the introduction here the last year, the clinton administration was not a good when you had a dot com boss, you had economic indication suggesting a downturn was coming. And then along comes the bush administration and saying we're going to be be more business friendly because everyone always says that. But they also introduced especially major tax cuts.

So along with long with the tax cuts, other policies that were promised and implemented IT sounded like maybe something big was happening positive that could could get the U. S. Economy out of its brought before recession, actually developed.

And so when we look at what happened in two thousand, one verses twenty twenty four, you do start to see a lot more similarities, ties because of that. Where we were two thousand one in the cyclical process is a lot of cyclical indications like two thousand, one in twenty twenty four, starting with the bad market. And what you see in particularly that the cell off that we've we're experiencing right now in twenty twenty four is not unique.

And I pointed the sound in the recent video. We also saw a massive cell off in the early part of twenty two thousand one. And IT was tight to, first of all, the federal err rate cuts.

There was more optimism than an aggressive response by the fed might be enough to to also head off a recession before having because remember, record two thousand one, there was a lot more faith, a lot less doubt and skeletons ism about intestate policies coming out after ninety eighties and the great so called moderation. So you heard rate cuts from the fed, and he had a major shift in what was what was deemed to be more accommodative fiscal policy, tax cuts from the bush administration. And this should sound really familiar.

So you had a more than eighty basis point sell off in the ten year U. S. Treasury between march of two thousand one, in may of two thousand one, even though those were the first three months of the that come recession.

So you have a sole in the bond market based on hopes that stimulus, whether be central bank policies or government policies, might actually work. Here we are in twenty twenty four with very, very similar cyclical indications and a short run period where long term rates are rising. At the same time, short term rates are going in the other direction.

That's also a key similarity now versus then, short term rates are moving lower using the three month treasure bill rate here. Where is in twenty twenty four doing the same thing? So the yellow curve overall from the very front to the bag is really steep, pining out, which is a consistent downside cyclical indication as well.

Payroll reports of more similarities with establishment survey and twenty four versus twenty sixteen and actually even more of a there's even more similarities when you consider that um benchmark revisions mean that the current the current statistics that we had for the payroll numbers are widely overstating what is already a weak case. And just plug in a hypothetical plug for the Q C E W, not even getting into some of the other revisions and overstatements, there's a lot more similarity than even looks at just from the from the estimates we have in hand from the bls. So the payroll reports that we've gotten recently started to look more like the end of two thousand heading into two thousand.

One, two, nothing like twenty sixteen, a lot more like two thousand one. Same thing with the households survey though. Again, the household survey looks worse in the current period. Then in the months leading up to the dock commerce session, again, lack of payroll, a lack of employment growth from the housework survey is one of the defining features of the labor market over the last year.

And going to goes along with the fact that at the very least, whatever we think about layoffs um and remember, recessions are triggered by lack of hiring and that's what the household survey has shown and then some consistent with past recession periods like two thousand one. So the lack of hiring that we have in twenty twenty four is actually even worse than heading into the two thousand one the commerce session. So not not a positive cyclical in comparison there.

The unemployment rate, which was much was slightly higher in the two thousand one err than twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. But still similarities in how the unemployment ate is behaving in the very least, of moving in the same direction. Unemployment rises well in advance of the start of recession.

In fact, IT rises not all at once, but in a sort of gentle beyond ing increase over the really a year. So before we ever get to the recession and and off, that's exactly what we've observed at the unemployment rate over the last thirteen, fourteen months, more than a year before the the current statistics that we have for october. So another similarly at least in the direction as well as the behavior of the unemployment rate incomes.

As I said, nominating comes incredibly important. And nominating es, after A A big jump at the end of one thousand eight, ninety, ninety and early two thousand, and lot I had to do with the dot com air, the tail. And to the dot com air, that was one of the reasons by the year two thousand was um as concerning as IT was because the labor market wasn't deed really slowing down.

We saw that in terms of nominal income, which is which is always a recession trigger and I D like twenty sixteen and twenty twenty four, I pointed out before, nominal incomes are slowing down and they slow down quite a lot over the last several months. You see this even Better under three months change, but even on the six months change, slowing down heading into what looks to be A C A further cynically downturn here in twenty twenty four. And of course, really comes same type of thing we have coming down from the high rate in the area, late ninety, ninety, ninety, early two thousand.

And then similar, though not nearly as good in terms of real income, will be twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty three comparing to twenty two thousand versus twenty twenty four comparing to two thousand. One, the similarities ties there. Again, another cynically indication that suggests the economies behaving like the early stages of the dog common session rather than coming out of the twenty sixteen slowdown in the course.

Another big one that a reserve fed a reserve cycle is no is is nothing like twenty sixteen, where the fed was beginning to was just starting into the right high. Cycle, recognizing the cyclical reflationary upturn, wherein twenty twenty four, it's like the fed in twenty, in two thousand and two thousand one or in two thousand and seven, two thousand eight, where they are beginning to cut rates, recognizing the weakness that we see in the signal parts of the economy, especially the labor market. So we look back through all of these cyclical indications.

There is a lot of similarities, ties with two thousand, one versus twenty sixteen. What that means is that the trumpet administration, by the time we had, is worn in the january. The economy is already heading in the wrong direction before we even get there.

That's not we have even got til the worst part yet, which is the structural and baLances that are the really, really the biggest chAllenge facing anybody. Uh not just trumpet administration, the U. S, but any governments around the rest of the world at the same issue.

But I just a single account, uh, whether be markets, uh, bond markets, energy markets, whether be economic that especially labor data, the economy in twenty twenty four is heading in the wrong direction before we even get to considering what trump t in his administration might be doing. Different on an economic an economic basis. But the real big chAllenge, the real big difference here with everything, because we haven't seen a supply shock like this in several generation, really go back to the early one thousand nine fifties.

This is nothing like the great inflation of the one thousand nine seventy. This is supply shock case. And this is really the reason why trump won the election to begin with, because in poll after poll after poll after poll after poll after poll, american voters have said their number one issue is the economy.

And what they meant is exactly what you see in the start that i'm showing you here, number of incomes, which most economists and politicians have been pointing out, saying, look, what is everybody complaining about? Nominal income growth has been relatively good, but most people don't feel the the nominal income. They feel the real you do feel IT in real terms.

And the difference there is gigging tic. And so the chAllenge you for the trumpet administration is to somehow close that gap. And the problem is that is not enough to have consumer Price rates start to slow down.

And then real terms, you know the the real just magically closes with the nominal. That's not how this works. Instead, what what happens is, as we're seeing in the labor statistics, the nominal series begins to slow down and roll over.

And while those two never, never necessarily. Urge and now but ones gonna gona move closer to the real one rather than the other way around. That's the cynically danger that we just went through.

So we start from a huge gap between not just perceptions of income, but real purchasing power. That's what most people have complained about, is that they've lost so much purchasing power. And here you can see IT just in one single turn.

This is exactly the problem that LED to the election results that we just got. But solving this is not as easy as just switching presidents and congress and politicians around. It's not like you can just cut rates because red cuts never work.

IT takes something much bigger, especially given the fact that the could shift the second shift, the economy is in the wrong direction on top of everything. So the trumpet administrations got a couple different chAllenges that are much bigger than is being anticipated currently in the afterglow and euphoria, the last recession. And you can look at this um you said the difference between nominal and real is just is just enormous.

You look at this in terms of spending too um IT isn't quite to the disparity that we seen other places around the world like japan or europe where japanese and the europeans are spending more by getting less. That's true in the goods economy, but in services, not quite the same in baLance. But even here you can see what americans, american voters I have been up in arms about.

Now middle spending is way up here, but in real terms, its way down here. What that means is americans perceive that they're spending a lot more and paying a lot more, but not getting as much as they had before. This is again, lost purchasing power IT.

IT may not be and may not seem that big of a deal. Just looking at looking at IT on the static chart here. But this is a gigantic difference, and IT means everything. And so the chAllenge here is to close that gap.

And the way you close that gap is to have incomes in the labor market continue to grow and rise and quicken when, as I keep pointing out, those things are moving in the opposite direction. Analysts are moving in the opposite direction and have been moving in the opposite direction for a long period time. It's not so easy just to turn around.

Even if you believe even if you believe trumps policies will be effective in the real economy, they're going to take some time to have any positive impact anyway. So in a lot of ways, IT is like to two thousand, one circumstance sole, the tax cuts really didn't have that much effect. And IT might actually be like the nineteen eighties where the incoming regular administration had a similar chAllenge, though different, different background circumstances, a great inflation versus supply shot, but the same kind of results where the early one thousand nine and eighty saw repeated recession before the economy finally got going.

For a variety of different reasons, a lot of about having to do with the europe system. Reality reorienting itself, but the same type of signal in structural combination stands the comparison there. The early one thousand nine hundred eighties, we had a recession in one thousand nine hundred and eighty.

During the last year, the Carter administration, that really sealed the deal for regan's Victory. And then you had another deeper recession in the middle part of one thousand nine hundred and eighty one, before the regular administration really got its feet. Underneath that, the economy just completely not really collect.

But I came close to that. IT was the worst recession that we had seen the postwar era up until two thousand seven. And that was where they brand a lot of faith, a lot of optimism, the brain, new regular administration.

But in the short run, whatever you think about the government's ability impact the economy, in the short run, it's it's very limited to say the least. So we look at all of these chAllenges facing the incoming trump administration. They're enormous.

There are nothing like that we saw in twenty sixteen in many different ways there. Certainly, the structural chAllenges are are a lot worse. And I want to leave this with an example that came from the auto industry, which is what I I keep pointing out, the auto industry because it's the best example of this Price illusion nomo versus really that we have.

And also in capsule tes, everything we're talking about as far as voter anger and the chAllenge is facing the incoming crop administration as bloomberg road earlier this month, people that are starting to buy cars, those who were the last group that were were purchasing automobile iles before the pandemic, absolutely shocked to learn that new car Prices are way above what they thought they were thinking is, uh, admins doc com survey showed most people are thinking new cars and should pay around for thirty five thousand, when in reality, most new car places, on average around around fifty thousand, is not a problem of expectations, nor is IT necessarily a problem of Prices. The supply shock in the lost purchasing power is really about incomes. As I showed those charges, incomes have not kept up with Prices.

And so again, the chAllenge for the trumpet administration is to whatever whatever you think, his ability and the administration's ability to change economic circumstances. And I I remain very dubious about those, but whatever you believe about him, the chAllenge is that the disparity between where Prices are, you can see the chart here, new car Prices absolutely sold in twenty twenty one and the other part twenty two. And we've leveled off and gone slightly lower since then.

His demand has cooled and in some places is really starting to fall off and invitation oris begin the pile up. But you'll notice that Prices aren't you're not collapsing. You're not falling. And we should not expect that Prices across the economy are ever gonna go back to where they were in twenty nineteen. So the chAllenge isn't to get Prices to come down.

The chAllenge here is really to get incomes in nominal as a steady, Normal incomes, but really in real terms to not just stay where they are, go higher, but to go a lot higher, they have a lot of ground to cover, to get back to where american, not just consumers, but also businesses, can be made, hopefully made whole from the supply shock in the Price illusion. So like I said, the chAllenge here isn't Prices are not going to go back down, unfortunately, to to get the incomes to stay higher and to do so with the signal part of the economy turning down, where businesses are already trimming their costs, controlling controlling their payroll, their workforce are trimming hours. Um all of the things that we the opposite of what we need to see in the U.

S. Economy to get to to have any chance of closing this purchasing power gap. So whether be cyclical or structural, like I said, i've repeated myself a bunch of time here for for emphasis. The chAllenges facing the incoming prompt administration are far, far away greater than they were in twenty sixteen. And I believe that there are well, they're well more than most people believe, certain ly those in training in these markets that have gone completely crazy over the over the election of trump and lot of that you know getting past the uncertainty of the election, everything else. But on purely an economic basis there, the signal comparison is with two thousand and there's way too many similarities.

They are not saying we're going to we're going to have the same type of two thousand one recession um or you think because you never have uh you know history never repeats exactly but i'm saying is that the sick these cyclical indications look like they're heading into a recession in the same way that they did in two thousand one. There's a lot of similarities to thousand seven as well as one thousand nine hundred and eighty nine and early one thousand nine and ninety. So that once already that once already working against trump to begin with.

And then you have the major structural and bounce from the supply shock, which is an enormous chAllenge for anyone and is not something that any governments gona be able to solve anyway, in my opinion. So there's a lot of stuff working against us here, whether there might be a lot of positive expectations for the government being different in the last four years, but that doesn't necessarily that doesn't necessarily face up to the real, real dangers that we have and the real, real economic and baLances that just you just can't be cleaned up by, right, just by a switching um from one president to the next. In fact, again, when we give governments and president way too much credit to begin with, a lot of lot of downside potential here.

And even like I said, even if even if you are even if you do believe the trumpet administration is going to do a lot, that's right and they do do a lot, that's right. It's onna. Take some time for that up to actually bear fruit.

And the clock on this economy is already ticking. That's why we see energy Prices going lower. That's why we see, outside of the current short run, sell off in the tragedy, market interest rates tend to be going lower.

Even the federal reserve recognizes the dangers in the downside here. That's why they are cutting rates. Um so a lot of stuff pointing in the wrong direction. And I think it's it's worth stopping here before we even get to january and recognizing the direction that everything is heading as well as where we're starting from.