cover of episode Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?

Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?

2024/10/9
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Money For the Rest of Us

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David Stein: 本期节目探讨了现代投资组合理论(MPT)的局限性,以及如何在投资中平衡风险厌恶与高回报机会。MPT 追求最大化预期收益,但忽略了人类因素和单次投资的现实。A.D. Roy 的“安全第一”理论强调了单次投资结果的重要性,以及在不确定环境中生存的重要性。许多富裕人士通过非多元化投资,例如高杠杆房地产投资或押注单一公司股票,获得了财富,这并非 MPT 所倡导的策略。作者本人也分享了自身通过高杠杆收购获得财富的经历。虽然存在幸存者偏差,但非多元化投资仍然是许多人致富的关键因素。美国财富分配数据显示,大部分人口净资产较低,而高净值人群通常采取非多元化投资策略。为了获得高净值,大多数人需要承担一些具有高回报潜力的风险投资。人们既害怕破产,又渴望高回报的风险投资,这体现了人类的双重性。前景理论解释了人们对正偏态投资的偏好,以及人们对损失的厌恶。Chhabra 提出了一个投资组合框架,包含三个目标:避免贫困、维持生活水平和追求财富增长。这三个目标对应三种风险:个人风险、市场风险和抱负风险。这三种风险需要平衡,避免过度依赖抱负风险,但也不应完全忽视抱负风险。

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Why we need distinct risk buckets: balancing our natural loss aversion with the allure of opportunities that offer the potential for massive upside.

Topics covered include:

  • What is modern portfolio theory, and what are some of its flaws
  • Why so many people have gotten wealthy by being undiversified
  • How to balance personal risk, market risk, and aspirational risk
  • How prospect theory explains our attraction to positively skewed opportunities
  • Why most people won't get wealthy unless they take some aspirational risk

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Show Notes

Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz—The Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Mar., 1952), pp. 77-91)

Safety First and the Holding of Assets by A. D. Roy—Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Jul., 1952), pp. 431-449)

The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson—Hachette Book Group)

Beyond Markowitz: A Comprehensive Wealth Allocation Framework for Individual Investors by Ashvin B. Chhabra—The Journal of Wealth Managment, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp 8-34, Spring 2005)

The Wealth of Households: 2021: Current Population Reports by Briana Sullivan, Donald Hays, and Neil Bennett—Census.gov)

Average, Median, Top 1%, and all United States Net Worth Percentiles—DQYDJ)

PROSPECT THEORY AND STOCK MARKET ANOMALIES by Nicholas C. Barberis, Lawrence J. Jin, and Baolian Wang—NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES)

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