Welcome back to the breakdown with me and L W. It's a daily podcast on micro bitcoin and the big picture, powerless PS remaking our world. What's going on, guys, IT is tuesday, november twenty six than today.
We are talking about, well, basically the same thing we've been talking about forever. Michael saylor buying bitcoin etf lows, heating records bitcoin not quite hitting one hundred thousand before we're going to do that. However, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to IT, give IT a rating, give IT a review, or if you want to dive deep into the conversation, come to us.
You can find a link in the showers. You're going a bit that I slash breakdown pod. How are my friends? Well, for the third weekend row, Michael sailor has bought several billion dollars with the big coin.
Last week. Purchase was another record for microstrip gy, acquiring fifty five thousand and five hundred big coin around five point four billion. Their average Price was ninety seven thousand eight hundred and sixty, the highest yet.
The purchase was funded by two point four six billion and stocks cells alongside the three billion in convertible notes issued last week. Sailor is reinforcing what he said way back in twenty one. I'll be buying at the top forever.
Mico strategy has now purchased twelve billion dollars with the bitcoin over the past three weeks, growing their stack by around thirty five percent in bitcoin terms this month. They now own around thirty eight billion dollars with the bitcoin. This is a massive acceleration of th Epace, the forecasts during their october earnings report on that investor call.
Sailor let out the plane to issue twenty one billion and equity and twenty one billion and death to finance the next three years of big coin purchases. The twenty one billion dollar equity shelf offering was the largest in the history of U. S.
finance. Less than a month later, approximately forty percent of the equity has been sold in fourteen percent of the dead. Way ahead of the forecast pace.
The question, of course, becomes, can this pace of buying be sustainable? Or will sailor eventually run out of willing capital to fund this perpetual motion machine investment backburner? Seem seems to think there's plenty of runway left.
On monday, they boosted their Price target on microstrip gy stop from two hundred and ninety dollars to six hundred dollars. That's a fifty percent jump on monday's close, but only ten percent higher than last week peak burn, seene said. They expect microstrip gy to own four percent of the world's bitcoin by twenty thirty three.
They currently hold one point seven percent, so are well on their way there. Broker can accord took a similar view with analyst writing traditional p nl earnings metrics no longer really applied to microstrip gy, given the software companies business only accounts for a single digit percentage of current enterprise value. They added that, quote, dollar zed, bitcoin equation per share captures everything going on a microstrip gy.
And that equation is running at an incredibl Epace. Yesterday, bitcoin yield is at fifty nine point three percent, and in october, the company guided a target of between six percent and ten percent for the next three years. Now history, ally, it's never been a good sign when analysts say that the rules of company evaluation or longer apply, but there is a sense in which that's true.
Microstrip gy is now being Price based on how much biton they expect to hover up, combined with the projection of bitcoins Price. While traditional financial analysts are calling micro strategy a bubble that is runs course that's far from clear, the massive sell off from thursday seems to have been caused by a change in margin rules. The leverage microstrip gy etf were limited by their prime brokers, so had to buy call options instead of swap these funds currently on around fifteen percent of the float.
So it's a pretty massive headwind until they can find a way to get more lending capacity. Reports on twitter also suggested retail broke ages have increased margin requirements. In other words, the story of last week seems to a bit of forced to leveraging rather than a sentiment top. However, IT could cause permanent issues for micro strategies run up as leverage may be permanently limited. If that happens, sailor might have to revert back to the old fashioned way.
Boost in the dark Price borrowing money is zero percent by more bitcoin wanting to watch will be whether microstrip gy continues to sell stock at these levels and at what Price the logic of the shelf offering was to allow the company to sell stock regardless surprise movements, rather than only being able to raise capital at the top IT will be extremely telling to see how much Taylor about this week once reports again on monday. The other thing that has been nearly as consistent, although not quite as consistent, as sailor global critical etf hit a new record last week with a monster three point one billion worth of inflows. According to coin chairs data, weekly inflows have been above two billion dollars in four out of the last six weeks.
U S, based bit coin t fs also had a record week, recording three point four billion worth of inflows. Around two billion of that was just from black cross. Y, tf.
Coin chair had a research, James butterfill l put the record breaking year in context. Writing year today, inflows now standard a record thirty seven billion, driven primarily by bitcoin, far outpacing the debut of U. S.
God tfs, which attracted just three hundred nine million in their first year. Monday saw a major puke with over seven hundred million being drained from non black rock funds. Blackrock added two hundred and sixty seven million, but these flows are likely to delayed reporting from friday.
Either way, last week, the etf took in almost thirty five thousand bitcoin compared to the three thousand one hundred and fifty that were mind historically, there's only been so long that divergence can last. And yet despite microstrip gy in the etf buying at record pace, quite punch through one hundred thousand after trading relatively flat all weekend, bitcoin do below ninety three thousand on monday, representing the largest daily pullbacks since election day. We saw a slight recovery overnight, but many are perplex about who could be selling at these levels.
A big part of puzzle is simply leverage to wipe outs over one hundred and fifteen million, and logs were liquidated on monday, the biggest flush almost two weeks. Cala edge of alliance style basically called the play in the morning tweet. I think people are going to ever long in an attempt to knife catch.
That's exactly what happened as open interest ramp ed up in to the downturn before the final drop in the afternoon. The other big cohorts of sellers of the long term holders cashing out on chain data showed this COO hord had sold three hundred and sixty six thousand big coin so far this month. The higher cell pressures since April.
Bloomberg, erik, about kunas route. I see a lot of cypher twitter baffled and frustrated as the house sailor can buy five billion a bit coin, but the Price doesn't move up, which is the same thing I hear sometimes about etf after big flows. Here's data showing what i've been saying.
The call is coming from inside the house, its long term hot lers. Interestingly, this narratives Spark debate about who should be classified as a long term holder in the data analysts like we believe the utility of the data is important. Tweet one hundred and fifty five days is technically where I see changing behavior happens all time.
Bit corners like denmark to, however, believe being a long term holders as a badge of honor and shouldn't use likely in my opinion, that's not long term. I would named the cohorts something else either way. We're talking about holders who bought over five months ago and in this case, almost exclusive the people who bout between fifty five k and sixty k back in q one around the launch of et.
Essentially, the selling pressure is from people who put the trade on earlier in the year and are now taking profits of fifty percent or more, an analyst checkmated wrote, blame the bitcoin sixty eight k gang. They saw a hundred and ninety eight thousand B, T, C. In november.
The other dynamic coding Price below one hundred k is a massive cell wall. At that level, as much as six hundred million was sitting in order books over the weekend ready to sell one hundred k. While many are calling this the larger cell wall bitcoin has ever seen, neil Jacobs has a different take tweet.
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Get yours to day online and amazon best buy or bit key dot world that's B I T K E Y dog world. One more interesting thing on bitcoin tellers reportedly in talks to partner with counterfeits geron, the multibillion dollar big coin financing business, the bitcoin lending division was teased by ctrace CEO Howard letta bitcoin ho. In july.
He said the facility would start with two billion in liquidity, what could grow to tens of billions over time? Over the weekend, the while state journal reported the counter had acquired a five percent stake and tethered, making their relationship a strategic partnership. Having tether on board could make the facility more likely to be set up, providing a ready pool of capital that is willing to land against big coin zero head rights, big coin is about to become safe collateral.
And going back to the sailor theme, alternative video streaming company rumble has become the latest to adapt the between treasury strategy. After teasing the idea last week, CEO Chris pats love ky announced plan on monday the company will allocate a portion of their cash reserves to bit point up to twenty million in total. In a press ss statement, p love skii said, we believe that the world is still in the early stages of the adoption of bitcoin, which is recently accelerated with the election of occupants of friendly U.
S. Presidential administration and increased institutional adoption. Unlike any government issued currency, bitcoin is not subject to delusion. Through and money printing, enabling IT to be a valuable inflation hedge and an excEllent edition to our treasury.
We are also excited to strengthen our ties with cypher and to bolster our efforts to become the leading video in cloud services platform for the cypher to community. He later added in a tweet, I wasn't joking when I said I was going to be laser focused on the crypto in gaming communities. It's a new era.
Hot of fifteen capital who tracks corporate pick treasury's welcomed drumle to the group. They noted that IT only takes forty five bitcoin to make IT to the top thirty, highlighting how early we are there twenty million dollars spent rumble could accumulate over two hundred bitcoin accurate Prices. And right now, the market is still rewarding. Bitcoin treasury announcements boosting the stocks by sixteen percent across the trading day and into after market hours. Lastly, a kind of insane one mean coin launchpad pumped out fund might have finally cross the line as their streaming video feature went way off the rails.
Pub dot fund has long been viewed as the four chain of the crypto world, but things took a turn for the worse when the platform at a live streaming last week, IT started off with some relatively harmless financial crime with a thirteen year old kid rug ging a meme coin live on stream of flipping off the the thirty percent, and profit hardly seemed worth that as the point up fox on the back of the entertaining content from there, though, the content got dramatically darker, we add people sifting through their catalogue, only two thousand shock videos and all manner of unseemly content. Someone tied up their girlfriend in a basement threatening harm if their token didn't hit a million dollar market cap. There was another person watching a chicken live on stream.
Someone features a gold fish with a gun, and one me coin features a game lock in a cage with unseen mely tasks to perform at certain market cap targets. Spice to say the cute animal mean coin seem extra harmless right about now, pumped up fun claimed to have an active moderation teams. So either they were not competent or the volume of content got way out of control.
Hoo of kato analytics posted a charter of social media sentiment around pumped out fund IT showed a huge bike in post and the largest ever negative sentiment is the live streaming meta spun out of control edi illegal internet q prefer to the future as a pipeline of fellini regarding one particularly disturbing lifestream pudgie penguin in safety manager bow route, absolutely hate. And that needs to come down and see if you can get them help shut down the live stream future. This is out of control.
Crip lawyers spent the day thinking about how many different ways this could end badly for pumped out fund founders. Present burn rote pumped out fund is a lot very increase from a social media law point of view. No terms of service.
No D, M, C, A, registration and copy policy. No privacy policy, assuming its U. S.
bed. These are careless, stupid emissions. I wonder if the site is planning on sticking around for long on fighting out.
The company is incorporated in the U. K. He added yae's way horse for them.
If true, there's really only one country that will tolerate low level of content moderation. And it's not the U. K.
Mego tomo warned that the worst elements of crypto reflect on all of us tweet pumped up fun has two options. The site keeps no moderation. True to the nature of kro anarchic gets closed down fast by police.
The site closes the streams and gets closed down later after regulators wrap their head around IT. Within a few years, I advocate for freedom of speech, but these streams are causing practical issues where people are breaking the law in live broadcasts. This will trigger a shut down when the main train media catches wind of this.
They will become an easy target for career politicians in police to go after and further crypts. Only for criminals earlier in the day is the feature spiral, that of control. The team members called the lawn route.
Let me make IT abundantly clear. We actively moderate or the comments on the site that includes images, videos, s lifestream and comments. Although we strongly stand for free speech and expression, it's our responsibility to ensure that users don't see clearly repulsive in dangerous content and that bad actors aren't given a platform to act as they wish.
By the evening, the feature was taken down and egypt s brief period of utterly unhinge content, at least until the next time a protocol ads. This feature that, however, is going to do for today's break down. Appreciate you listening, as always. And until next time, be safe and take care of each other. peace.