Bitcoin is Manifest Destiny
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Welcome back to the breakdown with me and L W. It's a daily podcast on micro bitcoin and the big picture, powerless PS remaking our world. What's going on, guys, IT is monday, november eighteen th. And today we are talking about bitcoin and manifest destiny before we get into that.

However, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to IT, give IT a rating, give a review, or if you wanted, dive deeper in to the conversation, come join us in the breakers discord. You can find a link in the shown that you're going a bit that I slash breakdown pod, all right, friends. While we are still coming to terms with the post election bitcoin in environment, and at least for one person, they have never been more bullish.

Speaking with cnbc late last week, Michael sailor dismissed fears of a major correction, stating, I don't think it's going to sixty k. IT is not going to thirty K. I think IT is going to go up from here. Sailor said that the red wave is probably the biggest thing that has happened at bitcoin over the past four years, adding, I don't really see any threats on the near term horizon.

Speaking for a mainstream audience, sailor noted that microstrip gies planned to raise forty two billion dollars to buy bitcoin in was, quote, the same as, say, we're going to buy every bitcoin mind for the next three years at eighty five care more. So there's a lot of bullish things going on in the market right now. Speaking more closely to Price target, sailor commented, i'm planning to one hundred k party and i'm thinking it's probably going to be new.

Yeah, leave at my house. So I wouldn't surprised if we don't go through one hundred k in november or december. The interview then turned to the bitcoin strategic reserve, and in many ways, that offered a glimpse on how the policy might be presented to the public.

Sailor said that being sponsored by senator lums from wyoming and he understands the value of the frontier, the united states was built by purchasing manhattan. Then we purchase ed a lousianner territory. Then we purchase california and texas in alaska, the next great frontier cyber space.

In the obvious thing to do is to own cyberspace by the future. I think it's a great idea. I think that will happen.

I think it's important into the united states because its immense U. S. Control over the future world reserve capital network senator limits bill offset sixty and trillion of our debt.

According to my models, I think it's economically wise. It's technically wise. Victorin is manifest destiny for the united states. So like I said, when IT comes to how a strategic pickin reserve might be positioned, this is really interesting.

Are these just sailors words? Are these teams that are being hit on behind the scenes by people who are supporting the big coin reserve? Is that the type of thing where even if IT is sailors words, they get adopted because they have so much narrative power.

There is a very short window, in my estimation, to really get momentum for a strategy pickin reserve. So IT is worth tracking closely how this conversation comes up right now. Now one of the things that we've been watching throughout this cycle is the interesting anomaly in that Prices were reaching all time highs without there really being a return of retail investors in any meaningful way.

However, with the post election surge, retail traders do appear finally to be coming back to bitcoin. According to the coin base APP rank bot, the APP hit number one in the category late last week. IT peaked out at number eight across all laps and now was falling to around the seventy a trank.

Still, just a few weeks ago, the coin base APP was struggling to hold onto a place in the top five hundred. Google searches for big point of also hit a new cycle high, quite roping since the election. An account called trade travelled child took closer.

Look at google trends writing, people are saying retail is just arriving now because the search for bitcoin, google trans, is waking up. But what if we've been searching for the wrong thing? He found that searches for salona hit and all time high in march and remained elevated ever since.

Searches for meme coin ts had been making higher highs ince may twenty three and back at their march peak, SHE concluded. Maybe retailer arrived months ago, but they're just not looking for big coin until now. We're also starting to see evidence of small buyer showing up in the blockchain data.

According to crypto o QA, tt transaction volume below one hundred thousand has hit a three year high of around three billion in total. Elevated on chain activity is a nominalist in any period of strength, only lasting a couple of days in march in coming nowhere near close during the run up late last year. Conversely, on chain transactions above one million barely off the floor, suggesting that whales aren't yet info distribution mode, kao believes that retail is going to drive next like higher writing.

I think big coin surprises everyone when IT crosses one hundred k and strap passed that and doesn't look back. It's been such a mental milestone for so long that it'll bring retail fom a back in full force when IT happens. There are also more structural reasons that more investors might be getting involved in bitcoin options.

Trading on the bitcoin etf is one step closer. After the cftc grants approval on friday, the regulator issue to a staff bulleting, which read in light of relevant precedent in the courts, which is substantially likely, the spot commodity etf shares would be held to be securities. Therefore, the cftc's position is that the listing of these shares on sec register national security exchanges does not implicate the cftc's jurisdiction.

Essentially, the cftc has looked at the option of applications and sees no reason to stand in the way with the S, C, C in the c ftc giving the Green light. All that's left is for the options clearing corporation to take the final box and bid quene T, F. Options can go live reviewing the news.

Bloomberg s inie etf analyst pokus rote, the second hurdle they needed to clear after the c ball now in occ s court, and they're into IT, so they'll probably list very soon. Baluns gave no estimated time line, but I could be measured in weeks, days. The O, C, C is a private company, not a government department, said they really don't have a good reason to hold back his colleague James safar unit up.

Here we go opinions on how etf options will change because market structure have covered the entire range. A lot of people are on the nothing burgers side of the argument. They granted their opinion on the fact that there are many ways to get access to kick in options already would put their bit in the C.

M. E. Hosting decently sized markets. Jeff parked the head of alpa strategy a bit wise, came in right on the other side of the argument back in september.

He called this quote the most significant market structure change for big coin since the etf launch. He wrote the big point, tf options market is the first time the financial world will see regulated leverage on a perpetual commodity that is truly supply constrained. Things will likely get wild in such scenarios, regulated markets may shut down.

His point was that other options markets are relatively niche and inaccessible compared to options listed on the major stock exchanges. A big influx of liquidity could drive huge volatility over the short term. I could even lead to a massive games eez as markets kers get caught outside and need to aggressively hedge.

Mark noted that unlike the game squeeze we saw on me, stocks like game stop. No one can truly shut down bitcoin markets and more stock can be issued regardless of whether you think etf options or blusher or not. This should be a major shift in the liquidity profile of the market, iterated trades wrote.

This is a massive deal spot in tf options, will supercharge the derivatives market and attract even more institutional players. This isn't just polish for bitcoin, it's a liquidity bomb for the entire crypto ecosystem. The occ is likely to move quickly as they've shown their on board with the lining traditional finance crypto products.

Once these options hit, expect a significant hedging activity in volatility Spikes as institutions position themselves. Now speaking of that, thirteen f filings for q three show the slow accumulation of bitcoin continuing at major U. S.

banks. Bank of amErica and Morgan stanly held their E, T, A position steady from the previous quarter. Golden sx nearly double their holdings, taking the position to seven hundred and ten by the end of the quarter.

James fans threatens senior analyst to coincide k said thirteen, nine filings mirror the tepid Price action in bitcoin and q 3， most institutions are slowed to deploy capital into observe trends and didn't take the initiate to front run. A historically bullish queue for these positions likely reflect bitcoin I T. Fs, held on behalf of wealth management clients are inventory waiting to be sold to those clients.

One investor who is far less habit in q three was paul tuto Jones. Jones talked his book in october stating that, quote, all roads lead to inflation, and that is long, big coin and gold. According to the filings, his hedge fun increased their bitcoin position to five times the size over the past quarter.

They now own four point four million shares of a bit around one hundred and sixty million, worth enough to make the fund top ten holder. Ibt is now the third largest position for the fund, behind S M P index funds. And in video, although each is similar in size, other major thirteen disclosures came from a lena who double their holdings to eight hundred and fifty million and capel a capital who brought their exposure up to six hundred million 的 because is up forty percent。

Since the reporting deadlines of these numbers are all much larger now, maker scope wrote two to thirteen filing last week, as important should be mentioned, its portfolios watched closely by asset managers, especially hedge funds. If you've been wondering who is buying during bitcoin, sm are trading range. You can now put tutor on the list.

Based on its surge. Ince september is possible or even likely the bitcoin is now to ters largest reported non options position. That's a big deal over on the etf side of the world, a soft til last week's snow wave of redemptions.

Etf fund saw seven hundred and seventy million worth of outflows across thursday on friday, breaking a sixty inflow streak. This was in fact the largest today net outflow on record fidelity are, can bit wise, all set single day outflow records on thursday, which was the third largest outflow days. Launch coin dex.

James, when stratton looks through the history of Price action around major outlaws for the etf, the only days with larger outflows s on thursday occurred on november fourth and may first, each mark a short term bottom with a strong rebound over the following days, he wrote, we will have to wait and see if the etf low signal another bottom in history repeats itself. Now over in the world of what happens next when IT comes to politics, J. P.

Morgan. Analysts recently looked at six major changes they expect from the trumpet administration. Firstly, they see critter legislation moving forward rapidly.

Analysts identified the market structure bill, the stable coin bill and an entire BTC bill is the most likely to see passage through congress over the short term. Another big shift will be a change at the heart of the S. C.

C. Analysts expect the point based lawsuit to be soften, settled, even dropped. They believe that wealth notices against Robin hood unis, wap and other firms will be resented. Rather than moving to litigation, banks could rush to offer crept custody. With the repeal of SAB11， we've already seen a handful of bank granted exemptions from the S C C.

Accounting rolled, but a full repeal would open the flood gates, combine this with a change of leadership of the banking regulator, and we could see traffic stimulation in the industry in a big way. Analysts also believed that etf are going to be a big theme. Over the past few months, we've seen etf applications filed for all mineral coins, which have only increased election.

The report also predicted a surge in crypto venture ma and IPO activity analysis that clear regulations will make deals easier to underwrite, helping the capital flow. But finally, the big one, J P. Morgan.

Analysts believe there is a low probability of the U. S. By coin reserved being established through sinaloa ses bill, which calls on the government to acquire five percent of all bitcoin over five years.

They remain silent on the odds of transportation of the reserve where the government retains seized bitcoin. However, if the U. S.

Government does start to purchase by coin, analysts believe that will kick off. A global fly will effect. Basically, they think other countries will follow suit.

So little tifany the queen status as a reserve asset. So that's all the what could be. But in the meantime, what people are really watching our appointments.

Former S C, C chai M A N J. Clayton has been tapped to become the U. S. Atterley for the southern district of new york, which is an interesting one during his time at the S C, C.

Clay and saw the production of the downed report, which claimed jurisdiction over a broad range of cypher to he was on record stating that he believed most ics were security offerings and famously approved the rip lawsuit on his final day at the agency. Since then, claims expressed to more middle of the road approach to cyp to stating, I think our security laws have stood the test of time and we should continue to have them. My message to regulators would be to stick to your principles, but accommodate new technology.

Claim took on advisory roles at electric capital and fire blocks. And so we'll see he's certainly in an active spot at the S. D, N.

Y. Claim will be focused on criminal prosecutions rather than regular or enforcement. The manhattan branch of the D, O J is one of the busiest financial crime jurisdictions in the world. You might remember IT from such cases as S P F and alex machine key.

Now though IT seems the S D N Y will be shifting their attention away from cypher during an event on friday's cott harm in the coach of the security and commodities fraud task force said there will not be as many cases coming out of his office, adding, we've brought a lot of big cases in the wake of crypto winter. There were a lot of important fraud cases to bring there, but we know our regulatory partners are very active in the space, and we don't have a lot of people crypt or lawyer Gabriel superior believes clayton is a solid choice tweet. Jay clayton did, did nothing wrong in my opinion, and should not be black board ico are literally clearly security transactions, and he used to light touch ever on those.

He let us have the sufficient to centralization doctrine for when a token is not covered by security laws, and let him in declare ethon on security. No lawyers I know were surprised to offended at the ripple suit back then. X, R, P is highly centralized and at the time had a validator said that was literally decided by rip.

Ripple was also the king of trying to get government regulation against other chains due to P, W. It's only due to against broader anteco, pto, sweep and ripple retrospect, clive's being perceived as part of that that the ripple case came to be seen as a grave and justice. Now when IT comes to the other bigger positions, we don't yet really have the info forma cy ftc chair egypto dad Christian carlo is ruling himself out of the running for the c.

He waited. As for reports that i'm in the mixture on the S. C, i'd made clear that i've already cleaned ed up an earlier gary against their message cftc, and don't anna have to do IT again?

Dc rumors that are interested in some crypt to role that U. S. Treasury are also wrong.

So no information yet there. The treasury y secretary race, meanwhile, has been blown totally open. This morning, as I was prepping this, I saw elon musk tweet about IT.

So, you know, there's some crazy stuff going on behind the scenes. According to the wall street journal, there has been a messy fight over the crucial economic position that has irritated the president elect in his team in recent days. Sorry, cow.

Ryan sala, who of course, comes at this from a crypt of vantage point, put together a lanky thread on why this position is so important and why is extremely important to get right. He wrote, one of the only disappointing parts of the tram transition process so far has been the game of thrones that's emerged for the top economic job in the cabinet. Treasury secretary, we will keep an eye over the next couple days on how that evolves.

But for now, that is going to do IT for today's breakdown. Appreciate you listening, as always. And until next time, be safe and take care of each other. peace.