The Trump Trade 11/06/24
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Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to a half time report. I'm Scott. Walk in front and center of this hour.

What else the markets they are surging today as dota trump is elected president once again, the investment committee here to discuss the road ahead for your money this hour joining me joe Turner, a Carry fire stone, Jason's snipe, Steve twice. Check the markets up by now. You know the story.

We're certainly you're getting caught up on IT because we have two percent gains for the S N. P. A little Better on the nasdaq and the dows up a little Better than three percent as well as we say, I mean, joke, the trump trade is on, okay, ten years surging.

The dollars have its best day since mid june of sixteen. Still, stocks up, banks up, small caps, ripping, teslas, ripping, bitcoins, ripping industrial new high. I mean, staples are weak. Utilities aren't great, more tariff prospect, higher rate IT and both of those spaces. But what's on your mind today?

But I mean, everyone's calling that a reflation trade. We're basically inflation equities right now and we're inflation a bull market. And I think these areas of the market where you look at, you say, okay, we're validating some of the performance that has already occurred so far year to date.

Midcap large cap, that is your equity size class area of focus as you move into twenty twenty five financials industrials, jot etf, we have twenty eight percent waiting in each one of those sectors. I think the Price action today and the um election of of Donald droppers before seven president and united states, I think that validates the move there. I think because other areas of the market where you're getting nothing more than a mejor reaction, the response that we saw overnight in the rusal, let's keep money had a lot of quark trading, a lot of algos that we're participating, pumping up the Russell.

It's pulling back a little bit here today. You're certainly gone to see some pressure overseas because of a higher dollar on the emerging market as class, that is for sure. I know ti pascal point to this out, but japan is a beneficiary of this.

I think that ignites a the opportunity that you're seeing there. And at last point I make is, I think tomorrows fellow reserve meeting, we just elevated the importance of IT. And i'll tell you why, because rates, you ve got a ten year approaching four point five o at some point, rates rising, it's going to matter. The equity is bark. And I just wonder if chairman power in this commentary tomorrow does something to communicate, maybe walking back and pushing .

against this rise and you so get you you ort of answered everything .

in entry show.

Thank you very I don't want to hear about that. okay? Either or either one of those accounts Carry. Speaking of ti pascal, in the so illicit that joe just delivered to us, he also said i'd be inclined to press on the prevAiling trends that follow from these results.

This argues for a broad set of reflation trades that play on proc policies and high us namal GDP growth. That sound right need lean into these these moves that I documented at the top of the show and and joe documented IT as well. Yeah, i'll be in in .

greater detail. So so god, here's the way I would look at IT in a very positive way about us equities, particularly the biggest equities we've had over the last four years, considerable amount of regulation. It's the justice department, the S C C, the ftc.

And if you look at the companies in the top seven who have reported that apple will test about i'm i'm going talk about ten. So apple, microsoft, meta, google and anaya, they collectively produce four hundred and fifty billion and sales up twelve percent over last year. They have a twenty two percent net profit margin that was up about twelve percent.

And they do that in an environment that is that has been restrictive and has been seriously looking at them in terms of regulation. They're going to have less regulation and they're going to have regulation that we think is gonna be able to make them grow to the extent that they happen. And that's positive for these stocks .

is a pretty interesting since we're talking about and where we're going to move ahead in a moment. But I do want to tell you what mark zuker berg has just posted on threads. Congratulations to president trump on a decisive Victory.

We have a great opportunity ahead of us as a country, looking forward to working with you in your administration. The reason why that is interesting is that is red stocks is made us red down one of the quarter percent. IT is one of the only large cap names, certainly in tech that is down the day, which I find interesting in of itself.

You have had at times, uh, president trump criticize meta facebook, mark ocbc himself. He was going to get in the octagon for crime out loud with the elon musk at one one point time to musk status elevated. Now within a second, trump administrations out why the stock was down to, I find IT very interesting.

Why is you want to, you know, just think about certain trades that are going to work? I didn't intend to get to tech quite yet, but we are because of the sun, tweet or post on threads, excuse me, in which he wants to try and work with the administration. Be interesting to see how all of these .

relationships develop. Yeah absolutely. And there's another large cap stock down, which of course I own and that's taiwan seme for different reasons. But lets go back to Better so matter also.

Part of that IT is there was a strong set that with by party agreement on banning tiktok that you will get instagram and reals that would do much Better pick up share. So trump's latest statement is that no, a mca ban tiktok. But going forward right now, the market is lifting all boats except for that and on and of course, we're seeing with solar and Green players.

Yes, that's today that's going to change over time as we look for there's only so much you do. The quick as pixies, of course, are getting little rid of lina, which never shoot IT. We never shoot a bit in the position, and I grew that.

So that's a quick kest one. Once that need legislation will be different, once that need budget fixing, that alone, moscow targeting will be different and neck us to defense. People think i'll cut the defense budget.

I don't defend company, defend department defense. One of biggest customers. He's not going after them.

So we'll get back to this conversation in the midnight. I do want to bring in our steep quebec, our technology reporter, of course, he's been looking at this space and wondering what you make of the zuker burg post on threads. Given the historical context in which these gentlemen have had their know at times trained. I think if you want to even call IT whatever relationship IT, is that just just mosque? But the interaction that that marking and trump have had oh over the years yeah .

yes got part of that is I mean, I think trump even and kind of threatened to take legal action or throw mark zuker g in jail. And since we have kind of these reports, reve been seeing a number of ceos already coming up this morning, a kind of praising trumping will work with them, just baoding also tweet something about IT. But I also want to talk about this because this is kind of getting lost in the conversation today around ema.

And and I trust and what that looks like under the next trust administration, those four big government, and I trust cases against amazon, alphabet, apple and meta, those all actually began under trumps first administration. And IT wasn't until bindings administration that the lawsuits are ready and actually filed. Let me give you a quick recap of these cases.

Ftc vers amazon alleging stiffening a competition and and blocking lower Prices on the platform. Then there's the D O J versus alphabet on search. We know that alphabet, of course, lots that case. And meantime, the D O, J is considering a break up of google on that, so waiting for the judge to decide another alphabet case, stepper from that is against its advertising, still waiting for a ruling on that case.

And then the spring we got the D O J versus apples and a trust case focusing on the monopoly at the high end of the smart phone market, including some policies around the APP store, among other things. And then there is the f receive vers meter that laws' IT actually came out at the end of the first truck administration. There is some back and forth there.

IT was going to be dismissed still being worked out. As for trump though, we know he's been, like you said, a big tech credit for years. At the same time, his future vice president, jd. Vance, has praise ed distract regulatory regime and biden that includes ftc, Cherry, lina con. But trump has also said recently he spoke with OS of some of those companies that includes alphabet to deppa chi apples, tim cook, the washington a post reported amazon CEO andy Jessie recently spoke him as as well what to look for next, though it's who gets appointed to run these agencies, who is going to be the N. I trust chief at the department of justice, who's gonna the ag, and who's going to be the new chair of the ftc.

replacing consort t. yeah. Last to chew on, Steve. Thank you. Steve kob, you know, Jason sy, notable amazon hits a record high today, and video enters the dough on friday.

I've also been thinking about OpenAI, just given the fact that musk, sam altman don't exactly seem the C I. I. On a lot of things. Musk, his own ambitions as a relates to A I, too, with his own X A I. So I ve just thinking about all these kind of things as we try and digesting the sect where your money is going to work in these in these spaces. Now.

yes, so when I think about tech, I think about and and I think about obviously the news that we got today. You know d regulation is obviously that thing when the republican comes to the office and and I will play out through multiple sectors these and I trust overhangs existed prior um you know and I think as we go forward, they will obviously be looked upon I think still makes a great point took thinking about Linda and who will be the new chair of that potential community.

But when I think about A I and I think about those teams and power behind them, I don't think that train stops anytime soon. Um I don't think anything will get in the way of that. So I am very confident that those things will continue to work. So i'm not I think the noise around regulation of these areas is doesn't have a lot of conviction for me at this day. I think those those names can continue work.

Carry. Have been trying to figure out you know how the the biggest money managers around you're thinking about. What is going to transpire now you see the market is obviously placing its bet in in one direction. We don't know whether IT is gonna be a republican sweep. We think it's gna be. We don't know um to the extent that they have a supermajority um by what margin is going to be in the house that matters um if it's let's just for argument sake, say a the seven seat majority um that matters more for certain kinds of policies that could potentially get through if it's a to c majority in the house. I'm just tell me these are the kinds of things that very well known money manager think are thinking about as they trying to figure out where the market you're going to go be ond today beyond this move today um they're gonna be checks any checks on on the president you have that if you have just a two seat majority in in the house because you potentially have more moderate members coming maybe from the state, california, we just don't know. But these are the kinds of things that they are trying to game out.

right? exactly. And we might have had the same article, but definitely who takes some of the districts in california is very important for the numbers. And california republicans may be less conservative than some of their constituent. But I would say if we're looking at um financial, I mean, you just brought up um the whole world, I would save you. Private equity is as an example, we would think that we definitely will have a window open for more realizations of companies that have been in a propose that they have not been able to sell, whether to someone else in private company or to an IPO yeah and an IPO that has got to be a positive terms of election.

That's why wells fargo's mike male says a game changer for the financials. Um woolf is talking about those today. I recall the conversation I had with taught bully of eldridge beverly hills a few weeks back in which he described the animal spirits coming back.

On that note, I want to bring in Leslie picker, who's watching all of this up for us because IT feels like lesly this really is private equity is moment. There's been all this pent up demand drive powder um waiting for the markets to reopen in a sense. Is this that moment IT certainly .

feels that way. Whether IT turns out into actual transactions, of course, remains to be seen. But to your point, Scott, the animal spirits alive and well, the emini ecosystem getting a significant boost today, private equity firms like Apollo cardio and K, K, R are higher, as are the bankers that advise on such transaction as goldman sax Morgan, stanly, J P.

Morgan, up significantly as well. Now the markets expectation is that changes in washington would be more favorable to the overall economic backdrop, the d regulatory environment as well as tax policy unleashing a wave of ema activity. And while the anti trust environment under bitten has been undoubted stricter, take a look at this.

The level of ema was actually pretty comparable to the amount we saw during the last trumpet administration. Now to be sure, once inflation and interest rates Spike during the latter half of biden's term, IT became harder for companies and private equity firms to value predict finance transactions, causing deal making to fall. So today's moves in the stock markets suggest optimism that some of these more recent trends could verse in a new trip. Administration.

Scott, yeah. And not just private equity, obviously. Lesly, thank you.

That's lesly picker. Golden sex, you guys see, go my sex and day. go.

Sax is up twelve percent. yes. J. P Morgans, up ten percent. Morgan stanly up twelve in a thirty percent as well. We do have golden ownership on the death voice we have in multiple places. But you want to discuss this this window, as kerry said, opening, if not the door being posted in.

well, at least every bank I spoke to thought that first, second quarter, generally second quarter was that you would see IT open. So the questions have you pulled that for? I'm not so sure.

Because what i'm looking at is the ten year i'm looking at rates and rates, what IT caused to do an acquisition is perhaps the the central point of any thesis. When you're doing, you're dcf, you just got cash for analysis, your present value, you look at rates, the cost of bartering, that's got worse over the last three weeks. And I think that's a reflection just we pulled forward some equity market forms. We've also pulled forward some of the inflationary policies that trump is talk. So that's the .

impact you know what is good for private credit, which which like these companies are like falling all over themselves to continue that that dream of capital, which now they get an even higher return on where they were thinking about. Well, maybe we need to rethink what was a thirteen, fourteen percent return on that, on that capital, on that credit you that they're lending out to. Maybe we need to rethink. It's like go nine or ten, maybe eleven. Now there are well, okay of the goods days back.

but let's talk about the the imminent that's true. Private credit just keeps going and going and going. And by the way, the dome, sayers and I was wonderful early on.

The credit quality is not really taken a hit. I'm seen massive right offs of IT, but on MMA that you know anti trust me to hasn't prevented mostly MMA. We'd see that these private equity firms do the big deal, sure.

But the smaller one thing, she's not focused on those. Now where does play out a couple like g XO, right? There's a reason that's up today.

Sure that in good quarter. But now think of who could buy in our ups, fedex and not saying they're interested or others. Dh l could not buy them before.

Now they can that couples in play, you take a look at healthcare. United healthcare was being sued, right? Because buying the dark practicin texes that's going to fall away. So you do open up these things. And I think let's going very positive for the bankers.

And that's my death, Jason. Mean Apollo record every day, high day, day. Yes, they had earnings. But all of these stocks as we as we suggest, it's areas today, it's K, K, R, basically any of the public, blackstone.

palo, I mean, great quarter, obviously. I mean, they be on top in the bottom line, but origination, global wealth and capital solutions all did very well. A U.

M. Was up sixteen percent year over year. You know they have quite a lot, a few, quite a significant amount of inflows, forty two billion dollars of inflows.

But again, when you think about private, that when directionally, when I think about race, they are headed lower. Yes, yields have surged over last few months. But I think when you go into twenty, twenty five and you think about net realization was Carry mentioned earlier, and I think that you will see .

a significant upswing. And that's why like these vate financing these deals with treasury, your car, what hag to that's going on. Like one more thing I could go, which I forget to got to mention, let's not forget that part of what got trump, a good part of what got reelected, is playing to the populist person, to the person on the street.

So the average wage journal loves who lives paycheck to paycheck. I do believe that they will continue going after the large mergers that raise costs for those people. That is base. That must be the democratic base. Now is the republican I .

an he doesn't need to get reelected again after that.

I understand. But also there's an ego there. Ego is that he wants to be the one that says to google, says to the others, no, you only do that out of five.

What you do IT. So it's not business as usual in terms of prelude. No.

but I think he wants to as some I think maybe IT was moss who put out that you know are a nation of builders right now. It's time to build again. yes.

Like I think they are going to embrace that what was perceived to be and not even a perception reality of a hands off business. Don't you know terms of we're not going to put ARM around yet at all. Why are finger at you? We're not gonna g IT. All to now what is going to be a bear hug of corporate amErica again in their mind.

this in the weeds on every single company that he run. Six companies, I mean, which is the one is gone to suffer when he takes some of that time that he's got twenty four hours mapped out perfectly to the second who's gna surfer as he spends more time.

I an believe not I mean.

let's say that very let's see.

Let's see. I think you could certainly make a case that if you're looking at the publicly trade to one tesla, I mean, today, you think what do they get? Just a today thing.

Now I think you will continue until the results come in. But keep mind, he's game screen. So you trump is tesla is Green, right? So subsidy that we see for those cars, do they stay in the trump to trump up? Because most of friends shop.

I say they do well to must have .

access to the over office, whatever he wants.

No, but i'm just saying it's not as clear as today as you believe.

I was just going to be up thirteen percent every day. But you know .

is a cause .

of the fact the the small caps by the way, we were talking about financials regionals are ripping um small caps are having a day tommey told me last night um he's still sticking with his massive run that these things can have we don't need to play the sound again. But he was pointing out that they raced forty percent in twenty seven trading days in a few years ago that he thinks they could have a big rip tube.

Since we're talking about that, oh yeah, the fed meeting, the fed decision is going to be tomorrow. That's why we bring in Steve leevin, now our senior economic exporter, and how he is thinking about all of that, which is very interesting, Steve, because now I wonder, though, I don't expect the chair of you talk about the election and in any great context at all because that is not what he does. Um I do wonder whether the trump trade itself is so called reflation.

Trade of yields going up, the economy picking up, perhaps even more steam means the probability, not possibility, the probability of even fewer cuts than we thought. VS, a president who loves rate cuts and low interest rates. So I don't have to think about that. You probably .

do well. I wish I did. Sky, a couple, a couple things are sort of aligning together, which is that the market before the election in the results, kind of maybe sifting out the trump Victory here was already increasing yields.

And we show show a couple times showing the relationship between the ten year yield and the probability of a of a trump Victory. So and I also think the market was becoming more in line with the fed's own outlook for next year. I think we're probably on track for two more cuts this year, one tomorrow to be announced in, one in december.

And then the market has a pause built in. And I kind of think that power and company due to IT wouldn't be a bad time to cut by what would a mount to one hundred basis points take a look around and i'll give you little sneak peek from our fed survey, which was done obviously before the election, Scott. But our respondents solve the fed going into an every other meeting regime, which kind of make sense.

If you think about real rates and you wanted to bring down the restricted this of IT, you would take up down downpayment on that. And then you go meeting every other meeting with potential corner points. Now look at the november twenty, twenty five fed funds quack, I can show you first.

Look at the january contact relative to december and and november, you'll see that, that probably of a quarter point is now way down to thirty percent. That's exhibit number one. Exhibit number two is look at november twenty, twenty five feet from cutting that on your screen.

Right now, the higher that is, the fewer cuts the market things the fed is going to do. That's up near what is that? I can't read IT on my screen as if three eighty or something like that.

Three, eighty five IT tells you that gere's another hundred, yeah hundred to go from here. So that means that within the next year, the market is seeing, at least if you use that as a proxy for a terminal rate spot, that a many fewer cuts in the dim. Remember that number was one hundred basis points lower, say, back in september or so before things started to turn around.

So yeah, I would think about IT in terms of fewer cuts. Now the fed itself, I believe, will be reactive to fiscal policy IT will not be proactive. Everything I know about power, everything I know about the fed, suggest they're not going to front run fiscal policy. They're going to let fiscal policy take shape, see what happens, and they're gone to change their outlook and then they're gone to react to the data. Those will be the determinants of what .

the fatty does. I get IT. I think one of the things we try and do also and that certainly the market does see that discounts things in advance. So the market moves well ahead of whatever perceived policy mayor may not get done, in which case the ed could have to be reactive to that that sort of thing too, which just complicates the question of whatever a trump trade means for the trajectory of interest rates at a time where we know just based on you know who he is in the living that he's made as a real estate development, he likes low rates, is going to be leaning on the fed to cut rates and keep interest rates low.

He does, but he's going to have a problem. One of the interesting ideas floating around the economic world is the effective tariff s on the ability of the us. To finance its deficit.

Think about IT. We import an enormous amount capital in order to fund our deficit from overseas. A twenty percent tariff on all imports is essentially the same math, or similar to a twenty percent tax on that capital we need to import.

The presidents can ask her choices to make the new congress solution choices to make about how much he wants to pay, how much he wants to do in terms of deficit spending, does elan must come along? And to find two trillion dollars to cut from the al spending, what's the deficit impact of higher tax, of lower, lower tax? Continue the twenty five tax cuts, adding in the no taxes on tips, no taxi.

So security. I did talk to a former trump official this morning and he said, don't underestimate president trumps determination to follow through on his campaign promises. So if your bet is higher interest rates, it's probably not a bad one at the moment.

Well, that's why I suggest very talk about the the idea of what the majority is. If they, in fact, to have the house is is that begins at a couple seats is IT harder to get stuff to say steep. Thank you.

As always, we'll see a lot tomorrow. Obviously, Steve has been senior economic supporter coming up. We're making down more of the trump trades, bitcoins, riling big time health, not to surging. C.

N, B, C, has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm c, nbc's Jessica, adding to follow and listen to c, nbc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

find out how our traders are up playing all those moves and speaking the moves. I've got a newby from White and i'll document that next.

right. Welcome back. We have some committee moves to tell you about. Number one, Jason snake fie serve newby.

Newby for me was our final trade. Actually last week, OK sucks up fifty percent year today. So I know it's obviously moved a lot so far this year, but margins are now at forty percent.

Operational margins out of forty percent clip. E, P, S, H growth is between sixteen and seventeen percent. And I think over the last few years, revenue growth is still bit in low single digits, but their margins are continuing to grow. I look at them as a DNA of payment processing.

So I like, okay, why you bought C, R, H, which is a record day high? Yes, rich of stine recently at that, farmer jim recently bought that. Um why did you now buy IT? Well, rich, decide for the fact that you're easily influences by of the current number.

Please put that out on the day. Me jam boit no.

with Richard .

actually flag up when he brought IT up and discuss this, a new position for him. I thought of made sense. I like when companies that are good companies, and this is a good company list in the us because it's a bigger market than than europe in the eu, and they do a lot of their business in the us, and you get a bigger audience for the shares.

So I like the company. I like my management is running IT. It's not a big position yet because I hadn't done all the work I need to do on IT.

But look with growth plans, I do believe will see that this will play right into that and infrastructure here really need some rebuilding. So we'll see if that's where the trumper visage chooses spend. But you know, I think this will be a perfect player there. And so there are new us listening, and I think it's very attractive. It's not the cheapest in the group, but I think it's very attractive with m sorry.

we will keep her either. Stocks having a nice game with just about everything, everything else in the market today, including care, which is ripped the day Carry. I love your view on on the space.

Now you own united health. You know Better than anybody this this group of stocks, health equity. Abbot, would you add more of this group now?

Yeah, I think what we're seeing is a perhaps the turnaround. We've needed health care to get some catalysts with drugs. Fitton starts this year.

This is good news because on the one hand, there will be less regulation probably related to these insurer as result. The trump feeling that we're doing too much, just cut back, cut innovation, affect the the channels by which these guys make money. So U N age biggest of insures IT had a dip over the last quarter.

Two, it's coming back. It's approaching its all time high, still a great growth company with enormous potential in terms of building out autumn and that sort of the H. M. A set of their business. Health equity is a health savings plan company and both high rates are good because they have have a lot of money that they keep on deposit and they get.

But I also think this just grows as an avenue in which employees are able to save an investor for whatever needs on the healthy care side they're going to have in is more is pushed toward personal payment of their own health care expenses. You're gonna have these guys do well on the above ze. On the drug side, I think that we're flew with the fear that has been for three years of fixing costs, having caps on the Prices of more and more drugs. We put some of that in place. I just can't see that going much further over the next year.

Two arki today says its most positive for the big insures, united health human cbs, most negative for the hospital stack. So we're going to watch all of those savana now is watching the headlines force today.

What do we see? Savana, hi. After election draws to a close, us cyber security chief jane ezy said this morning that election infrastructure has never been more secure. Although israel did not mention the election related bomb threats emailed across several states, the FBI side of many of the threats appeared to our gate from russian email domains. CAnniest stocks are dropping as measures to legalize marijuana a failed in three of the four states that put the issue on the ballot tuesday.

Voters in florida, north and south tekoa voted no on measures to legalize recreational marijuana, while in nebraska, voters approved a pair of measures to legalize a medical marijuana and regulate the industry. And the supreme court began hearing arguments today in, that is, attempt to avoid a federal security front lawsuit. In the zoo, shareholders accused the social media platform of misleading them about the twenty fifteen data breach involving british consulting firm canberra, ala, that affected more than thirty million facebook user. Scott.

you, so I wanna thank you coming up trading the crypt.

C, N, B, C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I C N B C Jessica adding a follow and listen to C C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts .

surge bit coin soaring to a fresh record high day days. So how I can, I actually go will debate that next.

It's almost not enough show to get to every asset class that is ring hard today. Bitcoin certainly among them take a look, almost seventy five thousand as investors are betting on a friendly or environment for that industry under a second trumpet administration. Macan sic cigala is following that story for us. Meenie.

hey, god. Bitcoin briefly surging to a new record high as investors bet the Donald triple deliver on his procyta promises, especially with our republican control senate behind him. And after getting more than twenty five million dollars from cyp, do donors now trumps main pledges to fire S.

C. Chair gary ganger, who brought more than one hundred enforcement actions against industry leaders like coin base and Robin hoo. Those stocks are pumping twenty five percent and seventeen percent respectively today, with Robin hood on pace for its best day in over two years.

Bitcoin miners are also getting a boost this morning, with trump having promised on the campaign trail that all future bitcoin will be mind. In the U. S. Marathon, riot, ambit, digital are all trading up more than fourteen percent and driving small caps higher as well. Now in terms of the market outlook, multiple analysts are expecting bitcoin will hit one hundred thousand dollars before trumps and accurate, especially if he delivers on promises like launching a strategic national crypto stockpile with the fifteen billion dollars with the big coin that IT already has on its books from asset seizure. And Scott bitcoin, now sixty eight percent year today, after briefly hitting that new all time high overnight.

Good look at that for mechanism. Thank you. Sega s, you just bought coin base in the rebaLance of the joke. The .

ultimate momentum, a trade when you think about .

little did you know going like this well at listen.

you can talk about coin base as a momentum play. It's also improved this baLanced dramatically. It's got a billion dollar by back is raising its cash levels.

It's talking about generating ten billion dollars worth of cash in twenty twenty five. Are there executing cost discipline? They're talking about raising capital to invest in growth. There's more of the story with coin base than just Price moving from the lower left to the upper right. why?

How are you thinking about cyp to?

I'm thinking right now today, i'm sad. I don't know if that i'm thinking, but I do think you can buy more for trade here. I mean, clearly from zone, you know family crypt of business going so you can read between the lines there he's going to get IT going.

I still don't see what the utility is. I don't see to restore value. I don't definitely don't see is the currency.

But and there's a lot of steps to go through. He can't just created as a currency on his own right, even as president. So but I still take a trade tires. No reason for to go out this.

but he can also remove some of the the guard rails that are in place now .

from a regulatory state.

Yeah, that's that's i'm channeling.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So no.

that's what is really did you say you would do that on day one? Yeah, you, the crypt, the people .

are calling for a bit to be a hundred thousand. Three years go. Four years.

Hundred ninety thousand. I think that's going to happen. I think one hundred is probably .

the next stop, our next stop. What do you next?

Are I were back. Our senior markets commentator, mike sand totally joins us now with his midday word. I'm just going to give you the .

floor yeah I mean, that look, it's not much going on today's Scott that you would necessarily want to get in the way of the market is being very aggressive in repricing things according to this anticipated sort of new policy mix. But as much as you would look at a thirteen hundred plus point gain in the dow and say this is an all in rally, IT really isn't. It's much more earning IT separating winners from losers.

It's like sixteen hundred stocks up on the new ork stocks exchange, eleven hundred down. Rate sensitive stuff getting hit, I think big picture, we didn't have the makings at all of a bear market in our future even before yesterday, right? You had the economy doing what it's doing pretty solidly loose financial conditions.

Credit markets were great seasonal. All of IT was lining up, including earnings. Therefore, if you didn't have that big downside shock waiting for you somewhere, you have the the big rerir king that could push things from this love.

I do wonder if IT limit exactly how much me we can gather. Maybe we don't have the makings of a twenty seventeen ahead of us after trump was elected the first time, which was a straight up market with no volatility. IT would seem strange from this starting point to get there, but for now, IT looks like pretty clear on what he thinks it's getting.

He does have winded at his back, so it's big. I mean, he's got A A strong economic backdrop, a fed that's cutting interest rates. He doesn't have he's not necessarily on the wrong side of the fed this time. Now all signs are sort of pointing in .

that direction. No, IT is much more about the conditions before yesterday, which is more expensive. Market yells already higher.

We already had some inflation. We've been trying to get under control. So what is expansive policy due to that? I mean, this is not today's business. This is down the road.

I think honestly, the first hurt will have to jump is if sentiment starts to get a little bit over excited. We're not there now. We're not starting from a place where people are already, uh, super risk on. So I think there's room to run on that.

Good stuff. My thank you. I'll see on closing belt, of course, couple hours. Let's mix and tally up next for trading some big committee movies on this record day on wall street, at times back after this.

How I look back, big movers today include super micro o yet again, but a big move almost every day. New fifty two week load, they ve got downgraded to a cell today at J P Morgan. Um so your hands are kind of tired. I mean that the .

problem I keep guiding the viewers, it's not in the penalty box, it's spended for a year. Think about today, okay, the Price action that we have today, you have the rustle up five percent, you have an as like up two and a half percent. The market cap in the stock is now thirteen billion dollars is down twenty one percent on a daylight today.

So listen, I don't know if the stock is going to get the listed are not going to go down that road. I have no clue, but take this name off of your screen. Do not try and catch the following line if I keep repeating myself.

The reason why I say your hand retired is because you already done your rebaLance. It's in the tea. You can do anything. You, yeah, I know what that is. I just to understand why you still, because you have .

to do IT annoys me to see IT on the ledger. For sure. I got you.

What about first solar on pace for the worst days since talking about solar stocks earlier today?

Yeah, this one I annoyed me as well. In q two, you had an eight week period with a stock ran up from one or nine to three o sex and that got all the momentum funds, that got all the the momentum rules excited about this name. And that's why we had the participation in the name is falling back. Clearly, we can get into the fundamental arguments what's going to happen with solar under president in trumps administration. I don't think it's gonna as ominous as people are forecasting is still to think they're na see revenue growth.

But clearly the moment may shadow here alright, wise transition they report tomorrow before the bell. You own that stock.

I do. I do. It's located IT IT staff from ties and transport. Important to understand this is run like private EV firm is over forty separate companies. The management lets them run each ed by themselves.

They have strangest pricing power because some of the companies theyd buy are the only supplier for those aftermarket parts. They also have defensive exposure. So this is a permanent compounder.

I think it'll do well into any administration. So i'm staying with IT. The quarter a has typically been good. Management typically does what they say they'll do or surprise the upside. I can't guarantee it's can happen any particular quarter to a rest.

I'm sorry. Let's jump to a rest and networks tomorrow after the bell record day high today, Jason snipe, you own the stock, which has been a nice winner for you.

Yeah, it's been a great winner. Stocks up seventy eight percent year day. It's the leader in cloud and A I networking. I think we will be a court if you hear from all the high per sis and all the capex span that's going on there. They also introduced a new either link um either link brand this summer that I think also be very positive.

And after the bottle of joe just take that .

quick cybersecurity name, they have to come with a good earnings report. The earnings important August was IT just recreated the entire fundamental stories surrounding the cybersecurity company in place in the same category as crowd strike and power out.

No, right. We will step for a couple and we'll come back with final trace next.

Are you following the half time report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting APP. Follow the half time podcast now.

Trace the final hour of trade today with a big panel. Rick reader is going to join us today, rich clara, stephane linked in Greenhouse. Chris Hardy, I hope you'll join me then because we've a love to discuss and know what happens with these markets and that fed meeting tomorrow, the decision and thereafter final trade from Steve voice, first.

I want semi. This is not a chinese company. You do have a couple of is there. But this taiwan, these company with our anti china policies, the truth has I think we'll protect them until critical elements to all of our comic.

okay, Jason, night polo, alto networks.

a lot of momentum. And there are new go to market tragedy.

I like this one here are writing and .

Carry shred of communications. This stocks seems to be making a turn that reported lower capex than expected in more sups.

Yeah, I mean, a lot of the media stop moving today on just regulate relief thoughts and possible deal making IT. It's big. Our parent company is up to, by the way, joy.

no of the sector benefits worth than financials from president trump.

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