The Fate of the Rally 11/18/24
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complex. So much welcome to half time report. I'm sout walk in front and center of the fate of the rally, the post election pop definitely cooling off.

I'll discuss where things are likely to head from here with the investment committee joining me for the hour today. Joe or nova, Steve White, prime bells key shine and to koshi want to check the Marks here. We do have a bit of a mix day.

IT is the nasdaq, which is the big winner today. The Russell as well. S, N, P is positive.

Two, about twenty five points. Ts, I do want to discuss the job. The fact the this pop that we ve got right up to the election is certainly cooled off.

As I said, if you look at the three days immediately following election day, I want to show you those because know we're off to the race, is almost immediately when we had this clearing event, a clean election, and you had three days, subsequent three days, that dows up four point two percent. Sp, nearly four as that four and a half. And the Russell are certainly ripped the last week that sort of turned around.

And i'm trying to figure out what that means, if anything, for where we're gonna over the next five to six weeks. You have a sense of why you think things have cooled the way they have. Well, I think you .

could point automatically towards chairman power's commentary on thursday afternoon is one of the reasons why the rising yells as well. But I also think tactically, the market was due for a little bit of correct of type behavior. Let's put in context though, the fifty day move over average is still well below current Price at fifty eighty.

You now have a Price gap from thursday afternoon to friday mornings. S N, P. Price action from fifty nine fifteen and to fifty nine and fifty.

So I think we're kind of running in place. I still think were okay. I think the bullish momentum in the narrative surrounding closing out the year very strong.

I think there's a lot of validity to that. I do think they're wednesday is critically important in videos. Earnings are important to the market, not even so much for just the overall waiting of invidia in the indexes themselves, but the semiconductor trade. And we haven't been really talking much about the semiconductor trade, I think will do so today. But the semiconductor trade x in video really is correcting, and it's one of the areas of the market that's down the most since the election.

So why sculpins twenty pascual thinks there's gas left in the tank that those are the words that he uses to describe what he thinks socks are going to go into year. And I remain he says, quite, I remain of the view that U. S.

Assets remain the weapon of choice. Open heima says. The top isn't here yet. You know, maybe it's because yields have been backing up, right? The two years at four thirty, the ten years at forty five.

Chair pol did make IT clear last week that there are no real rush to do a bunch of cuts. I think they're still some trump h cabinet. Uncertain ty to we don't know who the treasure secretary is. Gonna be is important for wall street to have a least a sense of how that's gonna ay out now IT, maybe there been a few curve balls in that conversation, but are all three of those issues the reason why we sort of had our big run and then we pulled some back and now we're trying to figure out what's next?

Yeah, exactly a bright. I was just talking in that there's more uncertainty in the market now than we could ever recall all in our careers. And sure, you had some uncertainty.

Is brand point down two thousand eight? That was a single point, and that was a baLanced issue. Now we don't know.

We know that taking cost of the government will be a good thing, but we don't know which companies will be affected, how they will be affected. We don't know if lena can, if you like, they will continue as jd van set. So it'll definite be some positive coming out of this administration terms of where to best.

But there also could be negatives. And with the uncertainty there, makes me very difficult to deploy capital, and you won't know until we go through confirmation. So even though the names that have come out and two, the largest employers in the world, health and human services and defense, we just don't know if they'll make IT, we don't know what the possible.

So that's why I think caution approaches here. Absent that, you do have I focus on rates, and rates have backed up next, a good everything. But he list mark groin, mark rone said.

I don't know why the first been such a rush to lower rates. The economy is very good. Why take them down that somebody who benefits tremendously from lower .

rates except private credit, they benefit from higher rates. And that's now become a significant part of of all of those businesses.

high margin business. And it's easier to around those that book that is to manage companies that to buy and own for five, seven years. So that creates a nice, you know, a nice margin for him. So I stand. I think I dosy.

what? What's your take here? Again, we have this big birth and now we're cool. And now what well.

I think from until year and we're still very violation terms of seeing sixty one hundred and year. And in the next year, we just publish our year head peace for twenty twenty five talking about a sixty seven hundred target on the S P. Five hundred.

And so I think next year, quite Frankly, is an opportunity to really kick start Normalization. What's Normalization? High single digital debugger performance, earnings growth, treasuries in a trading range.

We've haven't had this type of type of deliverable from the market really since the eighties and nineties. And for all intensive purposes, since the fed started quantity using in two thousand and seven, we have not been Normal. So lets get back to Normalization.

Um we're not going back to zero percent interest rates. If you look at the last ten bol markets in the thousand and fifty, Scott, this high teens, low twenty years multiple, pretty Normal. But we think from an asset perspective, we think equities in amErica or one a canada one b and we think that equity is are going to be the chosen .

asset class for if what if are not going back to what you think is, is Normalization. I mean, i'm just thinking you you have what someone suggest or who someone suggest is the most disruptive force in politics that we've seen in many, many decades. Okay, could be a second trumpet administration.

He you know he's going to be out spoken in the things that he argues for. He's going to pick people in in areas of leadership who are going to be advocates for, know a lot of his policies, maybe some of those who aren't you know going to lead to the kind of Normalization you you expect we're going to. He wants to read the tax cuts.

He wants to add on to the tax cuts. Maybe they are not as concerned in the near term with the deficit and things like that. Do you need to rethink what you think Normalization actually is? And none of those things that I just said, you construe a bad i'm not saying it's a bad outcome. I'm just laying the facts bear on the table of what what that all could mean for for economic policy, for the way of fedex s going forward and what that means for earnings in the markets.

It's a wonderful way to laid out. Come back to what Steve said in our off camera conversation about the most uncertain time. I think there's a lot of positive variables and a lot of negative variable.

So in that scope of things, what's your process? Your process for us is control, which you can control. And by those not just saying high quality, what is high quality? High quality.

Your names that are Operating an inefficient matter that earnings are discernable, that valuations attractive. And i'm not going to let politics take over what i'm saying from an investment strategy standard. Y I never have and I never will.

Politics with policy.

Politics and policy can impact things once you know what IT is. But to react, I think we actually absolutely, positively have to be slow to speak in very, very quick to listen and not anger on this where we had become such a reactive market, Scott, the last fifteen years to variable that we can control. So here's what you can control.

Buy really good assets in by high quality. And again, I just go back to just keep IT simple equity in the U. S.

For the best asset, the world. I an that what you would think that the pascual's and the open hymns are are looking at, that there is a lot of gas left in this tank. Certainly, the prevAiling thought initially was election day to inauguration day. You have a window of opportunity that's going to be powerful. Does that still exist?

Yeah, I think I think that, that period still exists. I don't think that it's going to be without some fits and start, Scott. And obviously, we have some market moving potentially market moving events coming this week.

But you know, I think if everyone thought that this was going to be kind of a straight line to the top, especially with how fun loaded this at rally was, I think that's a bit naive. The real question becomes, I love brian statement about talking about politics and policy. We have been actually in an environment over the last two years where we have been reactive to policy, but it's spent monetary policy, it's spent the fed.

And so what I see, Scott, as I see a very short term kind of focus on what's going to be on the platform, who's going to be in the seats from a cabinet perspective, what's going to be this potential policy for twenty five. And then I think we actually go back to, okay, what's underlying the potential for earnings growth, what companies are already well positioned and could potentially get an additional tailwind? And that tail when could come with come from multiple expansion.

IT could come because they have Better opportunities for ama. But I think if we disregard all of the policy from a fiscal perspective, I actually think that it's going to encoder us in from finding those companies that are already well position that could get this little bit of a boost and that could be the broadening out that you see next year. It's not just large cap to small cap.

It's not in just in certain sectors. It's really companies that are already executing that now. It's just going to be easier for them to execute even Better in new environment.

Alright, looking ahead, twenty twenty five target. You just put out your new outlook for twenty five, right? That's one of our headlines today.

Up sixty seven hundred. Is your number got ubs with a sixty four hundred, so you going to start getten ese in years? Is you know probably gonna up IT towards the top end of where the ranges are. That's how you like .

to do to you.

I know I would do. I would to why sixty seven hundred? So know where we at now or fifty nine, that's just called fifty nine. So we're going to go to sixty seven in twenty five. Laid out well.

do you think the great financial crisis spd, the twenty five years secular bulb market that we've been talking about since then, inside secular balls, you can have seco bears. And cyclical balls were in year three of the new coal ball would be twenty, twenty five. Go back to the thousand nine hundred and fifty, the average cyclical mom for year three or six percent.

We think we can get a little bit more. Or why? Because we think earning growth that actually understand with the multiple actually can come down. But more importantly, we see up the badding out effect to be real, be real natly from a performance standpoint.

But from a fundamental perspective, we take a look at the other four hundred ninety stocks in the s of p of five one hundred, their earnings growth is expanding a lot faster than the top ten, number one. Number two, it's the second and fourth quintile of growth is where we're seeing the best growth. And I think from a sector perspective, we're seeing obviously, we talk a lot on this program and joe loves talk about dispersion.

Dispersion is is amazing. This is where you want to be a stock picker, not because of technical dispersion, but because of fundamental dispersion. And I think this is where you really can can make in the market.

Would your outlook have been different with a different political outcome to the election?

Probably not in in the reason is, is that we actually think that the train has left the station shannon talked about about this is really the markets are impacted by monetary policy, actually. And we had in twenty twenty one was a combination of fiscal and monetary policy, which was the gas and then that was too much gas in twenty twenty two. But if you look at monti policy and fiscal policy, that's what really drives markets in the train, the station with respect to monetary policy becoming more loose.

yeah. I mean, the debate centers around just how fast the train is gonna start of pick up steam down down the tracks, right? Is that that the crux of the debate, which you know obviously, you have people pretty optimistic about what the new administration is going to mean for the economy, for earnings, for markets. But that josh put IT well, when he when he suggested the two score cards that an incoming president trump's gona care about most, most of all of the gulf one and the the stock market one.

Yeah, I discrete that, by the way, he goned onto the stock market one because IT was working. If the stock market were down, he blamed somebody else and say, that doesn't matter. That's very clear. We've seen him do that with everything in his vision.

cares about what the keys in.

but he cares about. My point is, is that that's not can be as focus because that works. Focus IT wouldn't be let's cut tax everywhere.

We don't have to get into that. okay? The fact are that if rates move up measurably and if we stop easing, that the markets not can do so well because the trade .

off rates to think about this target guy next year sixty seven.

I really do think impossible telling and to chance point, not so short companies that are best positioned before IT will be best position. Now take a look at booz Allen hamilton. Stock was on a media right, you know just flying and flying flying liquid some of last few days because they're going to go after go through contractors, so they're not position.

So you really got to a pick and choose ones that that aren't involved in the orbit that they have. Now you can find some healthier companies do that. You could find some ununited companies and defensive do that. But you have to stay, wave those areas. I in order.

fifteen percent sound doable, right? I mean, you ve got a lot of calls that say after you know twenty plus and twenty plus percent for the S N P, that now you've got the the prospects of lower returns. The fifteen percent sounds pretty, pretty good.

Good fifteen percent sounds, fifty percent sounds good to get to fifteen percent that we need that the tarriff are not going to be as extreme as expressed during the campaign season. That's one of the the things that I have concern in. I somewhat disagree because I do think that the opportunity with president tromp sl electric sus, if ice president Harris had been elected, surrounds the regulatory environment. And I think that regulatory environment feeds directly into your thesis that the .

market road I don't disagree with. I don't disagree with that. However, I only giving politicians any credit. Number one. Number two, on the regulation front and on the sector front, I think we can get to sixty seven hundred with different sectors in different places relative to where we are now. Our sector stuff in our positioning does reflect with respect to president trump. Ning, however, um I still think the overall market would have been positive with respect to what's happening just in terms of I think we would have different parts of .

the with harassing. I mean, your strategy is to own the winners like tech, right for growth and be contrarian financials for .

for value that contrary .

anyone know sten.

so we said, we said, you know we use David burn from the shocking heads same as that ever was. If it's, if any broke, don't fix IT. And guess what? Technologies is working.

Our thing for technology. E, E, has been, uh, on the big, big stuff for those. There are new consumer stables move down into the second layer of tech for winners financials.

We believe, based on our conversations within social investors around the world are still barely market weight. They need to get more. They have not distributed in terms of where they are, the very concentrating a few names.

They've been slow to get into the regional banks, and they certainly are not into the small, small little banks. So I think there is a really great theme there. Also, I could the directionality.

Our work shows you absolutely, positively have to have a barbell here. So on one side, you get amazon on a tesla, but on the other side, you get an amazing amount of companies in consumer directionally that are showing recovering earnings and very attractive valuations. That's where you want to be.

In consumer depression, sixty seven hundreds require the AI trade stay intact.

I wow, yes. But at the end of the but but a is beginning distributed across all sectors. And we know that hasn't it's not just about in video. It's about all these other names like oracle .

could be one of the biggest names.

But listen, but listen, I am an investor I don't really care about today. I care about the end end of next year. And I think stocks will be significant.

Much more important with like is the facts, our regulations will be coming off. And if regulations come off, those costs and some of those are the biggest cost. Next, technology in any company, if you remove all those regulations should make no sense, then you should see the economy benefit from that. And as first text me is just a brenniman winner, as IT always has been and as IT will be. And even if you bring this of .

the winner is the degree at which you think IT might out perform.

I think IT, I think it's it's just a permanent compounder that's continually at formed. And even if they break them up, which I don't see happening, some of the parts is just greater than than gal than the whole. In other words, you go to part break IT out, you'll see the valuation of those companies just take over this valuation.

simplify the math of thirty percent of the markets going to all perform the markets .

going to be well. That's I mean, that's a of that's a kind of market you had for you know a good portion of of this year. And last, obviously, IT in video is going to play a big role in that earnings.

Wednesday, obviously, stocks up thirteen and five percent over the last three months. We get debate how hide the bar is, but we don't have to cause Christinia parts and ever losses with this here. It's great to see you back.

Thank you. I mean， what do you think about the bar this time going in? It's always high. Now we have to bed sues around some of the black whelk chips. We can get you in a minute. But how how are you thinking about this in your own mind? For somebody who knows the space.

think just what happened last quarter and the bar was high. They hit, uh, the numbers, but they didn't hit the whisper sides of bad sides. And then you saw the stocks sell off.

So that could be the case again. Because the magnitude of the beats is diminishing, and that's the problem. We have these high expectations going into IT. And to your point, you bring a black hole, which is the latest iteration of their GPU, the one that is really gonna future growth. And there's so much writing on that particular chip.

One is how bigger the rap gona be? When are we going to see the billions and billions of dollars of revenues? Is that going to be, you know, starting into this quarter, leading into early next year or they're going to be delays? And that leads to, I guess your points got about uh, a report today right uh from the information saying that .

the batting .

yeah so there are seventy two of these chips to go into iraq with some CPU, and they're working through IT in video downplay IT so far. They put a statement saying that .

this is quite Normal .

and expected and then maybe it's damage control. But you also had Michael dell, a customer, tweet out yesterday that the black world chips are shipping and that he is they are thrilled about the quote from his tweet core. We ve put out A C A statement as well.

Um and i'd like to propose so that this issue right now that the information is talking about is about overheating. I know in August you guys talked about IT. There is the problems with t see and delays over there, but in videos saying that, that was just on fixing the yields. And these are two different issues. But i'm sure on the call, we're going to hear a lot about how this is not going to create delays because we are buying into this future growth coming from blackwell.

the markets not making a joke, being no sumption. That is gonna ad a huge place because if if that were the case, the stock would be we often more than what IT is now, which is looks .

like one of not defending the company, Christina, but isn't IT rather common place that and in video, talk about issue there are so complex to G B two thousand. So you need the co engineering with the customer for for integration. You can expect that you're going to have full integration on on for all clients. Is that commonplace that .

exactly that they said the rest of that statement was just they are working with the cloud service providers. And because you're not just taking one particular chip and sticking in, in you have the seventy two, which is in the name. You have the thirty six CPU as well.

You have all of the, simply put, the connector. So when they're launching a new chip that is higher memory, more power, they're saying there's going to be symmetries. They're still working through the kinks, but IT shouldn't create a massive delay. And to your point, seems like the analyst stock are seeing the same.

However, the stock is really sold off since the early August when that first, you know, the rumors of the the delay and mazovia, for example, was saying that maybe this is just a lot of tourists that I entered the name because it's been all over the headlines. They don't understand the fundamentals. And every time you see an negative headline.

they sell up. You know when you worry about when you should worry about delays is when there's competitive come in and fill that time gap that you're losing out on. That's not the issue here.

They have the most events, chip. There's nobody out there who can take their place in the supply chain with customers. So if doesn't en this quarter on with you, IT doesn't matter what quarter is the point this is that not this quarter of the next quarter?

Alright, Christina, thank you. Get a email back, Christina. Parts of this as we look ahead to in video, I want to get a couple of other stocks which are also important in this market palelo.

IT also reports on wednesday, joe, you own IT. I think people know that bells key. You owe IT.

Um it's up sixteen percent. Three months, year to date, up thirty two percent. How are we thinking about palelo?

You want to see the continue move away from hot ware towards software, towards cloud. I think that's what's critical in the earnings report, and you have to beat on revenue to accelerate a lot of the strong momentum that the stock has had over the last eight weeks.

belsky. Also on IT, I think, is testimony .

to that trade in the theme of moving down in market cap relative to the big guys go and quote. And also with respect to the trends going forward in terms of cyber security and global and arrest, I think that makes lot of the crowd strike.

Speaking of palo alto, s, as you look at cyber target up today, three seventy two at bark lays target to three fifty five at Morgan Stanley. Joe.

what about that one? It's basically recovered all of the loss that we saw from july and clearly make an attempt to to move back towards three ninety eight. Once again, as brian has said, the cyber security thesis well entrench contact when they could get add a name. Now for consideration for investors, as I don't have you won a prime, but it's fortune t. Fortune t is working remarkably well and arguably has a strongest baLanced between power to one crowd.

right? Let me.

let me ask you about pantier. Let's take a look at that chart, please, because I have been the worst day, at least IT was since may. It's not as the stocks not doing as poorly as IT was earlier in the session, you see IT has had a little bit of of a bounce.

Why the big pullback? What is about? I mean, there were some insider sales, they're moving in the listing, transferring its a new stack. Is that is that why or is that just because the stock is up fifty percent month to date, so it's just a little peel off .

of the top because I think is more than anything else, the the mechanics of the market. You know, you're into the sixties now. This is a stock, and Stephen knows this IT was added to the etf and the teens for a so this stock has had a remarkable appreciation year to date.

Is IT overbought on a technical basis, absolutely fundamentally could IT grow into a very extreme valuation over the coming years? That certainly can. But owning this volatility is the Price of admission. And I don't think you could be surprised to see a pool back like this when you know that there's extreme exuberance in this stock and a lot of other stock OK .

hundred and thirty five times he would. It's grown into an extreme valuation. You don't see that in the market in many stock, you know. So all right.

we'll take a quick break. A will come back with our chart of the day. I don't think it's gonna surprise anybody argument spend the charge of since the election.

It's tesla. It's up yet. Again, there's more news around IT, but it's the stock that's falling around that news, which has us interested. We're back after this.

Squat box tomorrow lifestyle icon Martha store a wide ranging interview about one hundred with book and business empire was robo ck CEO on the company's latest safety controls stay ahead of the market school box tomorrow six and tram C, N B C.

Right chart of the day probably won't surprise anybody's. I said in the teeth there IT is tesla ts up seven and thirty percent. Pull IT out from election day.

You can see a story that's just unbelievable. I mean, this I think that talks up fifty percent or there about since the election, for obvious reasons, maybe not unbelievable, maybe was expected, I don't know. And that thought this is following a report that the incoming trumpet administration wants to like self driving car rules.

So let's stock is up. You can see the run since election day. What is that? Thirty seven percent, something like that.

That follows a report from reuters on friday that they want to end the evy tax credits as well. So uber is down on this news belsky. You own uber.

How we thinking about this whole deal? You don't own tesla, but it's the uber move on. The self driving thing that seems to be a more interesting .

yeah is interesting from a sector perspective. We ve on uber now because it's what went into the industrial sector and we needed some more growth there in the industrial sector in party. I think that from from this type of weakness year longer term, we've really, really like the name. This has been a name that we would be looking to add under this just because I think this two shell pass is probably more of a reactive move to the outside.

Is that how you see h you this to show pass?

This is a hard conversation to have um because it's difficult for the viewers to do sometimes what we do in being tactical. And when we had that breakdown post earnings, I came on air and said, okay, I want uber via the etf. And I also owned uber persons.

And I had owned uber since the mid thirties. I sold uber at seventy three, fifty. And it's interesting because a personal friend of mine who's not in the financial services industry is nothing to do with wall street.

He he texted me that afternoon and said, oh my god. So tesla, that's one of my best positions. What do I do? And I said, no, you stay in IT because I am with their faces.

Brian, long term investors want to be anchor to this name. This is this is a verb that is clearly, this is clearly over the next coming years in a good position. But you yes, you can be tactical.

You can be tactical and recognize that when you have moments like you had post earnings, you see that gap lower. You see the u for you. You know that the crowd, everyone's wrong.

The name, you understand that there needs a little bit of an online. So here IT is sixty three, thirty three. Do I buy back my personal stake in IT? I'm not ready to do that. I think for potentially IT could move into the lower sixties and i'll reestablish a personal position there.

No, I agree that I mean, I think you have to have a process in the discipline when you are an investor. And again, the come in, in terms of of letting this settled in there, I think you absolutely positive have to do that because think about what word does in his mark position is, is lift gonna. It's pepsi to versy ke? I don't know.

I don't think I maybe lift doesn't going to be able to continue to compete with uber. So uber has a market, it's got a product, it's got a service, it's got great leadership. Um and so this again, well, we'll see how this come on.

Why is there is there any fall out though for um if if tesla and various parts of their business ambition, aspiration has changed meaningfully because of the mosque trump relationship and I mean the willingness of of mosque to be as politically engage as he obviously seems to be. That doesn't seem to me to like be winning anytime soon.

right? It's hard to see with this new um doge a role where or not it's going to be a prononce role well or .

not it's a temporary role that has nothing to do with the no it's it's .

way too early. It's way early. And talking perfectly with respect to muslim his role, I just think from from I think what's going on with tesla is more important to what's happening in consumer discretionary, quite Frankly, as the sector overall relative to what's happening with zuber.

I really believe that this is just too soon. We don't know what robot taxi. We don't even know if they could be profitable because of all the attend cost of drivers absorb at uber versus uber absorbing.

So how is tesla gona deal that? But what will be good is when they do have a national plan for self driving, that'll benefit a lot, and they can force that nationally because they control the federal government, controls spending for federal highways and roads. They get all these grants so that it's not that difficult. The technology is just not there for robot tax e's yet. Una belief.

alright, conTessa brew has the headlines is .

for a hydras, a high sa governor on centers says marco reviews replacement in senate will be named by the beginning of january and a post on x to sentence that you received strong interest from several possible candidate, rubio said to resign from the senate to assume his duties as the secretary of state when president elect trump s. Takes office. Nearly one hundred trucks Carrying aid were violently looted in gaza over the weekend.

Several U. N. Aid agency said that convoy was told by israel to leave under short notice through an unfamiliar route. The agency said some members of the convoy suffered injuries, though they didn't specify what kind israeli military has yet to comment, and it's not clear who was behind the looting.

In new york, voluntary evacuations remain in place and a state of emergency has been extended for orange county as firefighters continue to battle the Jenny's creek fire, which they say is burnt fifty three hundred acres and is eighty eight percent contained in new york. Some relief might be on the way forecast call for rain the region thursday and friday. But Scott, as you know, we're going to need a lot of IT to counteract the .

effects the drought. I can just thank you. Can just a rule I coming up. Cnbc, throwback.

this is a gold bullion bar. Here is twenty five pounds. It's worth about one hundred ninety thousand dollars. And i've got three of them here, along with a lot smaller amounts of gold as well as these two burly guards i've been married .

to for the last hour hour of soni is standing by on the big milestone in the gold market is celebrating today. Etf h is next.

Experiences the power of C N B C Price best deal of the year track your portfolio from every angle on one optimism terms strict back on half time gold .

catching a bit the .

day as the gold market celebrate a big anniversary to bop zon IT out today's etf edge bob, you know, have any gold bars though?

Around a day, feeling a little less so got the granddaddy of gold d tf turns twenty today the spider gold shares, or GLD, is is called when public at the N. Y, S. C. On november eighteen, two thousand four, and for the first time, gold could be owned and traded in every day just like a stock. IT was the first commodity etp and IT revolutionized gold investing today. IT is the largest gold etf in the world's seventy five billion dollars in assets to understand how revolutionary IT this was, take a look at a clip from the very first day of trading twenty years ago.

Normally, I talk about the stock market. today. We're going to talk about something totally different.

I'm going to talk about this, this, this is gold. This is a gold bullion bar. Here is twenty five pounds. It's worth about one hundred and eighty thousand dollars. And i've got three of them here, along with a lot smaller amounts of gold, as well as these two burly guards i've been married to for the last f hour. Thank you guys. Why am I talking about gold today? Because finally, a gold etf is available today for the first time, thanks to the world gold council and state street, you were able to buy gold just like it's a stock.

And let's talk with the founder of gl GLD, George milling. Stanley y was with the world gold council when I want, and launched the god in two thousand four. He's now chief gold strategy with state street global advisors.

And he runs the GLD. George. You showed the path for a new way to own commodities.

This revolutionized everything. Gild and gold was just at an historic high. Tell us how the gold D T F. Changed the investor base for gold. What did this do for gold investor?

Twenty years ago, when we launched in the investment was about ten percent of final and years of demand with jury of four eighty percent. That's now change jeweler's down to about fifty percent, maybe even less. And investment has gone up from about ten percent to twenty five thirty, sometimes even as much as forty five percent. So it's been a revolutionary from .

that point of view. And central bank investing is now a major party wasn't twenty years ago. Why are central banks buying gold so much?

I think they have their way over exposed to dollar and nominated debt in their official reserves with still more than about two thirds of that, and they still have less than five percent on average in gold. And I think that's a baLance that they're trying to address. They think that's a dangerous .

imbaLance in jewelery. Still fifty percent of gold demands india, china, they're the biggest investors, right? They own gold as part of their household network. How is that business doing or they're still strong there?

Oh yeah, they're doing very well. India just reduce tariff s in the last budget and also reduce capital gains tax on gold. That has been been going like an express train. China was going very, very strong in the early part of the year, then IT tailed off a little during the summer. But the stimulus measures that the government has taken, I think you're gonna bring prosperity back and that will help you there too.

So the investor basis expanding through the etf central banks is still stronger. The men in india, in china out there. I think that's totally important at this point here. So go to the patch recently, we knew high going into the election is so off about fifteen percent. It's then what's happening.

I think that the love of investors went ganga o for risk, and I think that was really the deal. And gold, as you know, is the risk off asset. So I think that's why I came down, but it's already started to claw back some of the ground of IT lost, I think, looking good going into the end of the year and for next year.

Two, yeah, it's very clear that the gold E, T, F help expand the investor base that we can see. But inflow in the bitcoin etf have been huge this year. I'm just curious, is bitcoin really a kind of competition for gold? How do you view IT?

I don't think I think of gold mainly as a protective asset offering your protection against equity weakness, against inflation, against currency weakness. Bitcoin and the other crypto products out there are all about return, and I think that's really the issue. Returns have been pretty good except for twenty, twenty two when they weren't so good, but returns have been pretty good, and I think that's why they're .

doing well right now. Yet flows of slow down in the last month or two in the gold as the bitcoin etps have rally bank rather dramatically. That that is competition, right?

I guess. I mean, I don't think it's direct competition. I think they do totally different jobs.

okay? We have a lot more coming up with George on the tail winds and the headwinds for gold, and that might be facing in twenty twenty five jugs are going to be joined by tod's, one etf strategist at ratifies. That's etf h that cnbc dot com. And of course, we will be talking about this for the next twenty years because goals not go going away.

It's is, are bob. Thank you. As pop zon is coming up, we're got to set up on this week with retail earnings will trade more stocks to that are on the move next.

Alright, let's stock netlik new record. I A day. Two percent of sixty million people, sixty million households worldwide watched that fight on friday night. New record. Hide today. I said, R, O.

what do we think here to right now, total addressing market? Sixty million people watch the fight, two hundred eighty million subscribers. Christmas day watched .

the event was a really a fight, and I never go .

head ahead. Christmas day, texas ravens chief stealers beyon. Now the half time show during the texan's game, think people are going to tune into that. I know I certainly will.

I mean, how much of that is now? How much is in the stock?

Um I think the what's not in the stock is the continued opportunity for netflix to continue to participate in live events, OK, sports, entertainment, news.

whatever IT might be.

Yeah I mean seventy million uh ad tear a subscriber or Scott. I mean, I think this is an example. Every single chAllenge that netflix is faced since the finding of this company, they've basically been able to overcome and thrive. And I think that you know the most recent one has been being able to be profitable in doing what they're doing, which to jose point, allows them to now go into and four into areas where others are not profitable. So it's a huge opportunity.

You could raise Prices here. I mean.

what's one of your largest positions?

Yes, absolutely. And I could backup because got wait too big. But look at this way, they have such pricing power and they've got scarcity to this model. And when you take a look at sixty four percent .

earnings .

growth this year, yet forty six percent cash flow growth, the estimates for next year only twenty cents, I guarantee you that they will be much hired net.

So stock very change subject you just the .

big coin and gray .

scale position continues A A A ua lot X R P. But there's like a another record hide today.

It's one the safest theory, strangers that sounds because I still don't believe in IT. It's when the safe star is to invest in under trunk crypto, see crypto because he so simple, he's got his own crypto business. And the people that are sitting with them like a mosque are in favor of IT. So you'll get regulations, you'll see IT more expand more institutions. And believe me, I don't feel right saying that no, because I understand use .

cases yeah and milk cent toe his middle words next. We are backing your markets, commented to mix anti, as you see, is sitting with us at post nine. So what do you thought here as this new week begins? Obviously have a video middle k, and we've certainly cooled from the the post election burst for sure.

And market really seems to be regrouping. I mean, every update is sixty percent up. Every downs like sixty percent down. I I see IT as the market, trying to be pretty discerning and rational as post to this kind of all in burst of enthusiasm are worrying about anyone thing. The fact you've got a little bit of a bit in treasuries probably helped today.

The yields seem like they are at a point where they should start attracting some real money buyers, and maybe that's happening right now. Bigger picture, I don't know anybody has strong conviction of exactly how policy sups going to play out, but real strong divergency es. I mean, if you look get bank for this health care on the since since november forth stark right.

I mean it's the whole game um that being said, this idea that we're gone to get this mad chase into the end of the year, i'm not sure if that's true. I think you have upside IT. Seems like things are falling into place, but nobody has to buy here. I think question is starting to get a little more demanding.

You know it's a crazy market when White says that crypto is the safest yeah to making the market and he's still isn't. Never use a story.

There was a story. C how microstrip gies bitcoin reserve is bigger than the cash holdings of companies like that. Well, it's not cash. okay. I mean, like you you know nike's cash, he doesn't get to go down fifty percent and I draw .

down and and I cases for the profits I .

make on the train, you do actually do as always. You know this is the use size.

This is the exactly right.

Well, thank you. We'll see a little bit later. We will do finals next.

right? We're back. We're going to do finals in a moment, but let's do some setups first. Tomorrow we got lost belt key reporting everything .

love loves our value. In our divided growth, a portfolio is trading at a five multiple .

points lower than home deep jot, jot in the jot walmart.

yes, back to school will see how a creative that actually was looking for revenue about three to five percent. Remember in August, they already raise the outlook.

Jot four years old today. Happy birthday to the jot IT is thank you very much. All right.

what's your final trade? Final trade is E Q D. E Q T rather ever focus on natural gas.

E Q T is breaking out OK. Is that in the joy? E Q T is not .

in the joy OK.

It's in the .

joy prospect of .

in White matter.

I think that the cracks right now is over for now, and I think it's good trade back up to the old house.

O K belsky .

we love spend cap stocks o and o and on shoot sixty percent gross margins, thirty percent revenue.

Girl sand row, quick .

financial big case for financial als and .

twenty five is a happy man. alright. Thanks everybody. The exchange begins.

Now you've .

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