The Election Front and Center 11/5/24
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What's next for amErica the morning after breaking election results critical insight from campaign insiders, how voters are thinking about the economy SAT box, wednesday is special time. Five A M R C N, B C. I'm sa walter.

and you're listening to C N B C S halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in.

Hi, thank you very much. Welcome to the half time, the port of scotland, the front and center this hour, what else? The election and the fate of this bull market, no matter the outcome.

We discussing debate with the investment committee today, joining me for the hours Stephanie link, bill Brooks, Jenny hering ton, jim levinthal, robs seachange. We have a supersize yesterday because this is a very big day. As you know, for your money, we'll check the markets we are who called the highs the day for stocks up across the board, S, N, P.

And the as deck are good for one percent or Better. Uh, the doubles knockin in on on the door. There stuff are. Go to you first. Uh, thinking about the fate of this full market in this rally as we had into this day and goldman's axis, tony pas kalo says, buckle up.

I keep a close sight on the bond market he says, where the bias has been to sell the belly and or the back end for equities, the clearest scenario to me, or any assemblies of a clean outcome is implied volatility gets hit hard and fast. We know, you know, looking into volatility, the fixes down a little bit today. Maybe on that note, markets like to try and suss things out, but how are you feeling about stuff?

So I think that in no matter who gets saying it's going to be the mix of congress, that makes the most that's the most important for the overall markets. I think investors overall, we want to mixed congress because unfortunately, that means nothing gets done. And I don't like to say that, but that's what the markets want.

They don't want to worry. So if you get a sweep on either side, I think that's where you have more volatility. I one hope we have an answer tonight or tomorrow.

I don't want to have to wait until saturday. And if we don't have an answer, again, more volatility. But let's just step back for half of a minute and just look at this economy.

The I S M services number this morning was the best since january of twenty. Twenty two new orders are almost fifty eight, right? Pricing is not going higher to actually stabilizing.

So I S. M service, is that a function of the consumer? And the consumer is doing just .

fun based economy. I think that was the best back to back services prints in a long time. Yes, what you are talking about and .

also we've been talking about manufacturing and the grid and electrification, that's the other part of the economy that's doing really well. You edit at all up GDP is running two and hf, three percent inflations coming down. I mean, that leads to about eight to ten percent earning truth of running at about nine right now.

And that's the thing is the most important to me. So I know there's giving a lot of relativity the next couple of days. I am looking for opportunities to add to my favorite themes. We've talked about manufacturing, talk about housing, consumer acceptance so we can go through IT and a little bit, but there's a lot to to like .

if we get to pull back. I think the way you lay IT out is much in line with the way that greg up of the wall street journal laid out his view of whom ever wins tonight and in the days ahead, which is likely, you know, the way these things end up working is going to inherit IT ahead of an economy yeah, the step just laid out and maybe that's why jim ubs today says equities are attractive regardless of the result.

Pyper sana reiterates sixty one hundred for their twenty and twenty four year and S P Price target. Adam Parker, who's going to be with us tonight as part of our special coverage of try variant, told me yesterday the bulk es intact. Unless we get a policy change, how do you, how do you put IT into your own words?

I concur with all of those assessments and with steph anise and know there's some other things going on. This besides the election, there is obviously the fed meeting and twenty five basis points baked into the cake. And this is another cut in december.

I mean, there's a little bit of question about that, but it's still about eighty percent probability you ve got china's people's national congress meeting and maybe are going to get some more clarity on stimulus there. There are reasons to be optimistic about not just the U. S.

Economy, but the global economy going forward. And I would point out that it's often foolish to change your investment stance on the basis of the outcome of a presidential election. Certainly not saying IT doesn't matter and there are some pretty drastic scenario that could come out. But for the most part, in my investing career, if you change your investing stance based on what's coming out of an election, you're more likely to be wrong than to be right.

There's a lot of history on them, maybe at the the highest of levels. But obviously, once you get down towards the ground, so to speak, there are different trades that would potentially work based on who actually occupyed the White house.

I think I I, I do agree with that. And I was trying to make comment in the broadest st sense of don't go out and sell the market tomorrow because you don't like the outcome. I can remember people who have done that in prior elections and regretted IT mildly.

That's my comment. Don't make some global comment of, oh, now I need to get out of the markets, leave the country. I just don't think that's .

the right thing to do, jane. Bank amErica looks at different result scenario. Let's just take the split scenario, brother hair is or trump, and assume that congress is split based on whoever ends up winning.

Haris split status quo clears the overhang. Equities can rally under that scenario. That's what they suggest trump split um they be largely neutral.

They say because you you have the possibility of terriers uh, higher than the ones that are already in place still um but you don't get the tax cuts right that's not forget the tax pets are expiring um president trump, former president trump, a pink has made IT no secret that he'd like to double down on that if not increase them further so they suggest that that's not gonna happen if you get a split with the trump reelected. How do you look at the the scenarios? Well.

now starting at the beginning, I look at IT like it's been a very, very close election whole time and is essentially in fifty, fifty and and of those fifty, fifty odds, it's binary, right? One wins or the other winds.

So I think the markets largely Priced in that those odds, right? And it's not like i've been trying to think of the right way to digest IT, which it's not like apple, where you're like either they're going going to beat or are going to miss, but they might eat by a lot or they might miss by a lot where you have binary odon beat or miss. But the magnitude is different.

This is a very finite outcome that we've known and digested for a long time. So I think the markets digested kind of like what each size policy is. I don't think you will be a radical change.

It's interesting, Scott, because when you talk about under a trump, we've got terrorists, we would like he'd like to extend the tax cuts. But even with the divided congress, like we're probably not going to get those extended. 嗯， with that with those risks out there, one would think the mark would be lower than IT is.

So I was joking round in the office today saying no one's really paying attention to them. And IT reminds that pop icing, which was gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today, feels like we're kicking out the reality of the fact that tax is probably are going to be higher in in a year from now. Terrace are probably going to put a crimp in the economy. There is not great stuff coming.

however you look at IT. So look at the the prospects of reduced regulation, more of a hug business, if you will, um a more uh easy environment for M. A activity there mean different kinds things you can think about the kinds of companies and stock.

but I think that's being thought about that's probably in there. And you know what IT manifesting the market trading at twenty one and a half times, twenty two times learnings. Right now, I think that scenario is in there.

So stuff says, but we've got a pretty good economy. We ve got two and a half percent G, D. P.

groth. We've got two and change inflation. We've got earnings growing in the eight and nine percent range. I think that's really manifested in the valuation .

that the market certain sectors is a there in a very good stuff.

broadly speaking. I think it's .

in the market that but .

some people are, some people are. People write, you and I are and so the answers is, yeah, there's tons of opportunity for you and me but if if you're someone who just is like byan dex es by the S M P, I think that I don't see how IT rally to these that sixty one hundred Price target that someone put out there. I don't see how really is there. And to your point exactly.

is a hard time kind of that mean, to be fair, I think you thought a hard time seeing the market rilling to the levels to take go to, let's be honest. okay. So um many of the more cautious things that you've said or thought would happen haven't happened, right?

And that's why I always fully invested because I know that I always be barrier H. I always conservative. I also know that they are losing bet is to not be fully invested. So I kind of like expect the near not great case scenario, but I stay fully.

So dividend grower have been a big disappointment, right? So in an environment where you have the potential for higher interest rates for longer, right, if you're going to inflame deficit even further and then you have to figure out ways to pay forward and the prospects of interest rates on the either in the belly or the long end of the curve going up and staying up there for a longer period of time where you optimistic about your dividend strategy working in that environment.

So one new ones, divided growers and divided incomes. Stocks are two very different bees. So you could even put like apple and a dividend growers category, because every divided that's going, I invest in dividend income stocks.

And so those are the companies that have much lower earnings. Frankly, they don't grow their dividends as fast. They are kind of the slow and steady.

And so within the dividend income space, got you one hundred percent correct. And a higher yield curve does put pressure on them because it's seen as a bond proxy. But i'll argue all day and john N.

I got into this on the show a couple weeks ago or argue all day if you need income, if you don't want to have bonds, right? Because all you're going to get is easier then within that slice of your portfolio where you need income. Give IT an income. Stocks are still favorable. So when you say disappointing.

it's only on a relative base. no. But i'm thinking of things like, look, I mean, you build utilities, for example, you start to get a more yeah are but that's my point. You have one of the hottest trades in the year, certain no, you vista is the think the best performing is the p stock still ahead of in video? And you know the prospect of higher rates started to wear on utility stocks.

Does that not isn't that what traditionally happens? Now maybe this is a little different because you're still playing them in a little bit of different way than traditionally in historical you have, but none the less. There are things think about as you relate to certain sectors.

I mean, there's not a lot of sectors that performed tremendously for the past couple of months. You tell these being one, we ve moved away from our utility exposure because of the fear of higher rates. Industrials have been on fire.

We moved away little Better from industrials. Now I think that s look at the market broadly from a position exchange point going into this election that we've seen a little relief. We've seen a handful percent down in the S M.

P. The nasdaq hasn't made a new all time high since july. So I think right now, as you look at the stuff said a split congress, if we get an answer there tonight, I expect the market to be higher tomorrow.

And and because of the position, we've seen some profit taking now, there are some different risks that we are looking at as as things evolve, continued higher rates will be ahead went to this market, but I still remain very bullish. And I think the S P gets to sixty two hundred this year depending on who wins the president of election. There's other, other, other sectors like currencies, the euro and mexico peso. Those can be at risk of the transfer tory, the dollar maybe at risk in the Harris Victory. So there are some ways in currencies really do drive positioning.

I think you want to talk about chips, for example um because you their husband talked from the the speaker about you know getting rid of the chips. Act semis have not traded all that well lately and taken video and Brown come out of the mix. It's a mixed bag, if not weak.

I think you need to to think about that. How are you thinking about you know that that sector you have the prospect you've already had you rattling of exports of of chips, china and things like that, which could get more contention under A A trump administration. I think you need to think about all these things.

Of course you do. And they've had a lot of really good runs, right? Some of them you mentioned.

I mean, I own broad connect, been very happy with IT. I was buying IT when I was trading at fourteen times forward. Estimates is trading at thirty five times forward. Now however, A I does not go away, and that has been the big driver and a lot of different ships and a lot of different companies out there. We are in the second inning in A I, we're going to spend a trillion dollars tween now in the end of the decade on this theme alone.

So you want to find ways to play that IT may not be in the chips because maybe everybody does own in video and who's the uncommented buyer? Maybe everybody broadcom, when they didn't two years ago. Now they then now they do.

But there are other ways to play IT. So i'm going to stick with broadcom. Not happy with the valuation, but I do like the mix because it's not just A I is still in twenty five percent of their business.

Forty percent of their business is software. And then the other amount is actually the cyclical businesses that haven't even bottom yet. So I think that's gonna.

The earnings striver lam research has not been good. That's my only other that I own in the sam. And it's not been good because we haven't seen wake of the equipment spent increase.

And people are very nervous about the your exposure in china, and that one has been disappointing. But there, there is value in that particular name. So I think you want to be very specific within the do you agree.

bill, with the majority, I would say of the calls today that equities are attractive regardless of the result because the backdrop itself is attractive. You have a strong economy. We know that the feds cutting, we know that who cares if it's smaller, slower than we once thought. If you do have pent up demand um for deal making and you know other things that are going on, you agree I I agree.

I think the the background is very, very well set up for A A relief ally. We've seen the market is done in the aftermath of two thousand and twenty two thousand and sixty two thousand and twelve. And I think the fact that we pulled back recently sets up for that, and we are very heavy tech.

Again, I noted that the nasdaq hasn't made a new all time high since joy, but a lot of these names have been looking in videos or top position. You were on the list in microsoft and alphabet IT. I think a lot of them are really set up pretty well here to to actually take the leave and the seasonality, the nasdaq leads come november.

So I do think depending on who wins the election, there are things that would be concerned about Harris wins. You know that you're going to have the chips act. What's the moment time has been in recent years? triumph.

You don't know what kind of terrors and come in place. I running a medals, one to do A P, P, T, sd, on the terrace, what they did to the medals. With that, hold back the chips in, in the aftermath in the in coming years. So there's a lot of question Marks that will get answered.

right? We're abb season for give me for taking a while to get to you, but let's get your reviews here. You've what everybodies had to say here on the desk. And now I want to hear how IT all factors into your own thoughts on where this market may go in the weeks, if not months ahead.

I tend to lean into what Jenny saying a little more than what the other guys are saying today on the desk. God, in part of that has nothing to do with the election. There are three things that typically lead us to see increased volatility here in the short run, and that's what we've seen.

Momentum deterring breath is in forward earnings. The estimates are determining and that result could lead to uh, continued volatility. We also saw a dangerous divergent in early october, divergence in early october where equities were ignoring higher interest rates and cuts to forward E, P, S. And writing on fragile valuation.

Now that's that's alongside the positives, which are not we are going to have a clear election winter at some point in the next weeks or month maybe and november in december, typically the best two months of the year um mostly when we've already had a positive year because investors wanted delay taking gains until the end of the calendar year. And so you know, our take is we respect the positive trend. That's why we're invested.

The s MPI under could see some near term volatility, no doubt about that, but we likely ultimately see a chase into the year, and that is volatility that you should take advantage of from an opportunity standpoint. The other thing that the viewers should be aware of is regardless of the outcome, we've seen positive returns under both regimes. I think when we get to twenty five and get so little tougher because our base cases for a low return next year because we think valuations are onna struggle to expand further in the bulk of returns need to come from earnings growth.

And the big question is, will valuations have a reason to contract next year? So might be like a two thousand or two thousand and eighteen kind of sideways ge choppy market where you have to be a stock paper, you have to pay attention to that in. We do think that that's an environment where we can we can add value through stocks selections.

You just sound, you just sound hold. You just sound more cautious to me on the backdrop then, then maybe I would have expected and maybe more so than you've been in recent conversations that we've had on this very show.

yes. And it's because of those dangerous divergences. We talked about some of those underlying friends in momentum in breath.

They're not healthy. Some of the earnings and forecasts were exceedingly high for next year. So it's really a show me type of market.

And you look at IT, when you look at the mag seven, they do have really high expected earning growth. The other four ninety three have been getting triumph. And so we've seen more recently this research wing of the market, and those are not necessarily healthy sites.

IT doesn't mean that we're running for the hills because this the economic trajectory that both of both stephane and gym and bill have been talking about is really, really positive. But because of where evaluations are, it's become really show me. So let's see what happens, right? So I think our bet is if there is volatility, which we think there will be, we should stand at the ready to take advantage of that.

Now we'll see, you know for sure, stuff where where things go. Again, I just note the fixes down seven and a half percent today, still above twenty. I'm higher. Some suggest that IT is, by the way, on on volatility. And I thought IT was interesting from strategies, which noted the put call data that they track around the election and the fed.

By the way, we have a fed decision on thursday, too, that the put call day is Spike to the highest reading since roughly the october of twenty twenty three correction lows this yesterday, marking the second highest daily put call prince since late twenty twenty two. A lot of protection, they suggest, has been bought over the last few days. And you can see IT through vics futures, unusual with the S.

N, P, where IT is, which is really only a few percent tage points off of their highs. If we move you once again to the sector level, make a cab tag. Apple and video have been fighting IT out for the largest make a cat stock in the market.

And video failed to close above apple yesterday, but it's been around there. Do we feel like those stocks are totally Price for perfection now? Was that to take away from the the critical learnings week that we just finished and we don't you get in video until, you know what, three weeks, two weeks.

their Price to perfection, for sure. But they do have the growth. They do have the earnings.

I don't think that you're we're in a bubble in terms of AI. As I mentioned earlier, I think we're in the early innings. I personally think that amazon, of all the max seven is the most attractive.

I think they have the very best quarter. We get them via a couple weeks, but the best quarter of the others and the Operating profitability was astounding. Seven hundred and eighty basis point improvement in A W S.

Year over year is incredible. The U. S. Numbers, same store sales at eight percent, international twelve percent.

Both segments also saw increased margins. And so they're doing a great job. The stock has lagged for the most part of the other names. And so that's the one, you know, I was buying IT ahead of the quarter that someone I would still be buying. And again, if we do get volatility in the next couple of days, that's what I want to continue .

to be adding to. Let's take a look at plant here. It's our chart of the day because IT has hit a new record high following that blowout earnings report.

Our own joke, or nova, took a look and obviously shared his view on IT going into the print. So we had to bring back to share his view coming out of the print with a stock up near twenty three percent. You can wax poetic.

You can drop s superlatives like karp did. You can do whatever you want. Dan ives called IT the masterpiece print the messy of AI.

Unbelievable and waivers a demand as IT relates to A I from government and an enterprise. Scott IT really was just a spectacular growth. The commercial business growing fifty percent of, the government business growing forty percent.

And guess what? This still scepticism. We talked about this yesterday. The analyst community .

does not believe the move .

in palin teer. The average twelve month Price target was twenty eight dollars. All they did today was bumped up to thirty three that thirty three percent lower from where the Prices today.

They're still six cells, ten holds and only four buys on the stocks. So I think the most important thing for long term investors is this, find another software company, an emerging software company that is actually profitable, turn profitable, able. And twenty twenty three, that has the type of exposure to the artificial intelligence revolution that pantier has.

Very few software companies have that. And I think what happens now is that forty, which was previously the ceiling, I think forty becomes the floor for the stock neck. The stocks is trading near fifty one dollars.

Today, a lot of activity in the options market. Fifty doa calls, sixty thousand calls, the stock could easily pulled back. But I think on to pull back, this is really a foundational name, a core equity holding. When you're thinking about A I and software companies with exposure to A I that you want to have a ownership with.

the root wants a chance of thirty five, thirty eight, joe suggested in my night, thirty five, thirty eight, that's you. Thirty five, between five and thirty eight. That's where he's going to tell you right now why.

But that's where he suggested he would not. Thirty five dollars and thirty eight cents? No, no, no. I 他 问 他 OK。

Now I I would love the opportunity. This is one of those few names that we definitely missed. And I think when you talk about what they're able to accomplish, you know, you talk about drunk Miller and both, they talk fat pitches.

This was a name that that really had a lot of momentum and is continue to rally. They put up the numbers. And anybody still short this name and got blessed, there is no way that people are short.

So for us, you know, we didn't take the chance on that. You can't own all of IT, but I think all of the names that, that are really driving, I think, thirty five or thirty eight dollars, we come back down there. This is a name I want to be buying down there and have with our portfolio.

But we do take a lot of risk tech, the videos we have, the broader es. So it's more about hungering down. You you don't want to swing at the fat pitch if you ready, have five to three and and you just need to kind of get through things. So that's kind of way I looked at IT, but I I do regret not going to .

get here for sure. Favorite software name joe is this is undoubtedly or I don't want you to be my words .

that put IT in your your words without question pantier. It's been a remarkable year of appreciation. Very quietly, there is another name that i'm keeping my eye on. Resurrect the name that used to talk about years ago. Pull up a chart of tWilly o for the viewers, if you can tWilly OS making a nice little recovery.

I've got my eye on that one will see work, god stop you thanks and enjoy. I know you will to turn novit. By the way, we talk so much about the election, we're live tonight for IT have the results as they come in reaction from the biggest names in business as well.

Starts at seven thirty eastern from back here, the new york's stock exchange of live coverage in the overnight hours as well. More results. Asian and european markets will keep close size there and then walks gone to pick up tomorrow at five am eastern time an hour earlier than Normal.

So we'll be all over IT coming up. We got some committee moves to tell you about Jenny just got into a name. It's down twenty two percent in the past six months. Well, is the bottom in probably think so, should tell you why.

Are you following the half time report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting APP. Follow the half time pocket now. What's next for amErica the morning after breaking election results critical insight from campaign insiders how voters are thinking about the economy money vote swap box wednesday special time five A M E R C N B C.

Got a move to tell about it's devon energy Jenny buying IT again because you previously sold IT at the end of twenty twenty three. So they report today right right in over time. I mean, why you buy a back.

So I bought to back last week because I think this is kind of at the bottom, down twenty percent on the year. And here, the numbers, the numbers are so compelling, ridiculous. So well, first of all, backing up, I think we're probably at this point in a stable to slightly positive oil environment.

I suspect that we're going to see oil ranged from between sixty and color. Eighty devens break even press on oil is about forty dollars of arrow. So they're really profitable from here. Taking IT down from there that stocks trading at three point seven times cash low per share.

They're producing ten dollars and thirty four cents of cash low per share this year, thirty nine dollars stock you're expected to produce ten and a half next year, ten sixty eight the year after that. So it's a huge cash for the story. It's got a two and a quarter percent fixed in ideal and then another two and a quarter percent variable.

So you ve package that up. You've got a four and a half percent highly likely dividend. But here's the kicker. During the second quarter earnings call, they actually increase their share by back by sixty seven percent to five billion dollars, which is twenty percent of their market cap.

And that to me says, hey, the management is pretty sure that this is a low to meanwhile, they just did an acquisition for and what are they doing with all this cash? They're in backstairs, but they're also making me smart acquisitions. So it's largely permanent based, but then they just require a company called Grace and mills and that's bucking.

So they're expanding that. So just a really good kind of math, cash flow, dividend and stable story. And IT goes to the point before, even though even though kind of negative, this one's camelon IT goes to subsequent in not buying the home market. You can buy individual stocks.

And I like the Price on IT. okay. Um we do have other names in the space that are on the move today.

Diamond bx, step this, yours. We can take a look at the the stock here. There IT is down almost two percent.

P. S, did miss once you read. I mean.

it's up thirteen percent the year. One of the Better energy stocks in the group. The quarter was fine, was strong and actually fourth quarter production was increased. This is not about this quarter or even next.

Porter, this is twenty twenty five story and dever the ema that they did this past year, it's going to five hundred and fifty million dollars a created per year between now in the end of the decade. And I also sit think that in two twenty twenty five you're going to see asset sales and more buybacks and their break even is at thirty seven dollars of a barrel. L so I know we will think about the same thing. I mean, they're money. They're maintain free cash flow and they're to return to shareholders.

And one thing like I would love to bought that, but he doesn't. So I just go where I can find marathon .

was a top and bottom beat.

A little you on that. They crushed expectations. Talk about returning cash to shareholders. They've done that and they bg back half of their stacks since twenty twenty one.

The refined ers are are a cost tense of business, especially to to build them out. Marathon patrol is the leading refiner in the U. S. And there is not enough for finding capacity. So this the name .

we love having in our portfolio. Okay, i'm gonna skip over boeing. Thank you. okay? They they .

strike is a more period.

Good win resorts. They had a top and bottom. Miss Jimmy, what you got, what you got a stock down was nine percent.

Yeah, i'm going to stick with this. And this is something I believe in for the long term. I know many people look at casino and says it's a treating vehicle, but there's things going on here in particular, developing things like the casino in dubai, almazan, that I want to stick around for IT.

This is a company with a long term strategic vision. In that context, having a quarter where you have a miss doesn't really worry me. I would worry me if there were no significant downturns in the business.

They grew the business year over year. There's healthy trends and lost vegas in boston. Macao still suffers a little bit but is coming back. So I don't see anything fatally wrong here. It's just they miss the quarter that happened.

I mean, but the stocks it's beyond just missing the quarter. The stocks under perform the market dramatically this year. We're like a bull market yeah and this stock is a stinker yeah.

Well, you know I think you know the scope I am going to save for the people who are watching, I don't actually believe that the prior past performance of the stock is indicative of the future. I believe the fundamentals of the business are what's going to drive .

the share Price forward and why the fundamentals of the business are so good. What why isn't the stock reflecting that?

Sometimes that happens, Scott? No, no, no, no, no. I'm good list.

There's a there's examples of there's examples. This is a conversation very respectfully. I say this to you. It's a conversation similarly that you and I ve had about things like delta, general motors, city groups. Sometimes, unfortunately, in fundamental long term investing, you have to wait.

But if you're doing IT right, if you are truly analyzing a company correctly in the long, long does work out. I very strongly believe I M anna ized in this one correctly, and I believe I will do what delta did, what general motors has done, what city groups has done. OK.

now I got to go to you on clean and clean.

Yeah, yeah. Jay wasn't another one, by the way.

Another one, by the way. I mean, IT is what IT is. I don't know else to tell you other than the fact that i've asked you before, if the environment is so great.

well, the environment isn't so great.

what is wrong with clever and clifts?

Thank you. You set that up perfectly.

The environment .

is clio coil. Steel Prices are down forty percent year to that story. When you look at this share Price and people ask me about this on the street, and i'm telling you.

when you look at the share Price, I like grown .

a football right now .

and and .

everybody else, when you look at a stock Price is down like this, you have to ask yourself if there's something wrong with the company or is there's something wrong with the industry. The industry has sucked this year. I mean, I can't put IT any more clearly.

And because of that, pricing is down. Clever and clifts has done the right things in a really losing pricing environment. We've bought stelco on the cheap. They have just closed that they have controlled costs really strongly. Now it's all about whether the upcycled and steel Prices is going to occur.

I'm going to give us a little more time with its steel Prices down forty percent, I think that the steel Prices are ready to go higher and with IT a much bigger cleveland Cliff to perform accordingly. But man, I got egle over my face on this. I'm not walking away from that.

Scott. I know that. All right, we'd like that. You, I an, as we said, vertex pharmacy, ticals rob searching and they raised their guy and they did a top in the bottom. B yeah.

IT was driven by strengthen their sites, CS fibrosis, chase Scott, that there's continued momentum in this core business and there's potential for additional approvals in twenty five trades of thirty one forward p, but they have hugely premium profitability, large Operating margins and press h low margins three times the industry average. In fact.

coming out, we have a big call in the facts to day why one firm says the financials could be the big election winner based on the results. Tonight, we're back just two.

What's next for amErica the morning after breaking election results critical insight from campaign insiders how voters are thinking about the economy swag box wednesday day special time five A M E R C N B C.

We are back on a half time report out muscly picker with your cnbc news update just moment ago in palm e beach four, a former president Donald trump cast his ballot, joined by his wife millennia trump. After casting his ballot trust, spoke to the person, said his campaign was doing, quote, very well everywhere.

Fulton county elections officials in georgia today said several bomb threats that were deemed not credible targeted five locations in total, and two of the locations were temporarily evacuated. Georgia secretary of state brad raf. s.

Burgers said some of the bomb threats were, quote of russian origin, the country, the county is seeking a court order to extend voting at two locations past the state wide deadline of seven P. M. And the number of first time home buyers shrink to a historic law.

This year, the national association of realtors issued its annual state of the market report. This week, I found the median age of people buying their first home rose from thirty five to thirty eight, while the share of those, uh, home buyers dropped from thirty two to twenty four percent, analysts say, is largely due to home otherness costs. With the media home Price now at four hundred and thirty five thousand dollars all sent back to you is .

got lesly recipe that thank you lesly picker are call the day up in hymir. Raise this Price targets today on a number of big bank. So they're favorite, they say, is golden sex, which build uu goes are going into more of the note the minute. But let's kick goldman as they suggest. It's the best one right now.

Well, a lot of banks and financials are at the top into the valuation bands, but they continue to make all time highs. And for gold, we really love the trading division. We will also like the investment bank in going into next year.

So we've lead into this more recently is a new add for us. And I think i'll continue. I mean.

this moment here is terrific. They also recommend bank of amErica city. Uh, Jimmy jeffrey, J.

P. Morgan, U. S. Bank core. You want? Just take that very quick. And I go to speech.

Jimmy. I'm so i'm sorry. Yes.

you win me.

okay? Yeah, i'm very strong. Is sorry.

Strongly bull thinking about clifts.

And i'm not why do they occupy some brain .

space today.

but we're on the banks OK. Thank you and should be picking up steeper yael curve that helps that interest margin. All this volatility in the markets is good for trading. There's a lot to like about the bank.

right? right? So city, the targeted goes to one of seven from ninety one. Rob J P. M, goes to two forty one from two thirty two. It's an outperform as they reiterate out, performs on on bac, on city, on golden sex, jpm and and jeff.

yeah top holding is jpm. But I think if you're putting incremental money to work, you want to look beyond the biggest names. Jeffery trades at fifteen times forward amErica twelve times be more of a regional bank beneficiaries is of net interest income with a step, a yellow curve.

I think one thing these lower rates are going to stimulate capital markets activity, ma volumes and this huge backlog of P E. Exits that we've been waiting for a side. You know, I think jp Morgan is gonna an unbelievable enescu ary. If they can manage expenses. Jeffrey is one that's really interesting to me.

Idea staff. Bank of amErica wells Morgan, standing on bank of america, said they take the target to fifty six from fifty.

I mean, the group is up seventeen percent from the August lows. So it's had a nice run, but the quarters were fabulous across the board. I was investment banking, these capital market wealth management, nett new assets, all were Better than expected, and they also controlled expenses, all of them across the board.

We haven't even begun to see in that interest income cycle if we do have the step field curve continue. I think that's a twenty twenty five story and bozo three and game that, that capital requirements going to be less than expected from nineteen percent requirement in terms of raising capital on the ground ships to nine. And I think as a result, you gonna have that access capital come into shareholder returns, buybacks and dividend increases.

And they're all cheap. I think you can own the big names. And you also know that I recently bought wells fargo, asked the cap gets lifted. I think that stock will be a ten percent easy.

alright, coming up. We have big calls a day on housing, on hotels and health care. We're back after this quick break.

right? That was good for four or four more calls today. Marriott reiterated neutral mazoe. They say they are waiting on the sidelines. What do we think, Jenny?

Yeah, I I think it's silly to weight on the sidelines on this one. So we've on this for ten years, it's annualized return is ten percent over ten years gives us like a hundred and ninety percent return. And that's just the kind of company mario is they just deliver.

And it's because their capital intense light, they deliver a huge free casual and they are just consistently grow. So they trade at twenty four times a premium to the market, comfortable paying that because in this case, you get that level of consistency. So I don't think you wait for you to break out. You just buy every throughout .

the other day, right, waiting for the break out. It's interesting to know here the Price target was raised to two forty six. It's obviously above two forty six.

This is where Joshua, I disagree. I don't think there is a break outcoming. I think it's a slow and steady over the long run. So Joshua, looking for a pop, i'm looking for just a steady trajectory, ford, that we've had for the past years. I don't see why that .

doesn't continue for the next time. Well, I mean, no, a break out doesn't mean he's up. I mean, looking for a quick pop.

What do you think that means then? Because it's already trading at twenty four times earnings, so it's going to break out to.

But I think IT could be at the start of he would say I think of a trajectory higher. I mean, a break out doesn't mean he's looking for the stocks to just pop and see later.

And I I always think of a break out is like a pivot point where something starts to sharply go. I look at as just a smooth .

speer mp next time but I don't think was talking about I lily top pic eleven hundred forty six dollars at Morgan Stanley robbert.

You know they revenues were up twenty percent year on year. The black buster drives, the glp ones came about twenty percent below expectations. I think you know that makes a little choppy, but these one of drugs are an incredible second, our growth opportunity. Nearly half the world's population can be beneficiaries to this. And so we're continuing to say long the name, although we trim IT back in may on the show.

sky mass tech upgraded to buy target seven, target one seventy three. There i'll be something. If the target was seven something as a record high the day you .

owe that and then hick, blast your revenues and have come out of this terrifically up on eighty, ninety percent year today, this day of your infrastructure, they put across diversified revenue streams and communications, Green energy, natural natural gas pipe pipelines. So I continue to think this thing is really breaking out. And going to, I went seventies.

reached the midpoint, d was told, is next.

We're back with our senior markets. Commentator mike sent told you, join us now with this middle word, which is what is on your mind today. You know.

we closed yesterday in the S M P, pretty close to a one month lows. So IT feels as if everyone expects any kind of a clear result. It'll be a bit of a of a path for rerir king one way or the other. So without looking at the the specifics of what's working and what's not today, to me that the primary dynamic where sort of back up to where we were a few days ago before we had that spill on, on thursday, so IT seems as if people don't want to let the market get too one direction. But the other piece of IT is yields going up is very consistent with this pretty hot eyes and services number we got. So a lot of the things that you think might be repricing a particular election outcome is also flowing in the direction of of what the macro o data and the underlying market trend has been, which is a little bit more of a special leadership top.

yeah. What about the fed meeting on thursday? It's like the big event that no one is talking about for obvious .

reasons for sure. Um I mean, I think what's interesting is after you got that good I M services number didn't really change the expectation for what happens then I think we're still okay with with the feed that can be deliberate and even go meeting to meeting if that's what we need based on how the data are coming through. So I not think that they're not high stakes, but I do think that they are manageable and and we can sort of live the implications of whatever that messages .

on thursday i'll see in a couple hours on closing bell. That's mike. totally. We will do finals next.

Well, a big show through a black east n of course, on closing bell with the tech investor glen catch law n goodwin, ryan detrick k and a stage a oso and Kevin gordon swap t to that. By the way, i'll be back starting at seven o'clock eastern for our cnbc special election coverage.

Is life right here in new york's stock exchange? Um don't forget that again, in seven o clock, western will have results as they come in and talk to the biggest names in business. Two rob final is .

what amErica should be a beneficiary of a soft landing, high quality phone books stable the positive base in rising along an volumes along with that interest margins.

And it's also cheap. Okay, good stuff. Thanks for being with us today. We'll see you soon. Farmer gm.

amazon picking IT for its all weather capabilities, okay.

two percent on the day. And what is a Green day across the world? Jenny arron.

the all american disney, because I believe in american ability to spend no matter what happens tonight.

Alright, bilbo lidos much .

cheaper than partier and has a those defensive contracts as well as a strong emphasis in the IT space. All right.

stuff to pon. They beat, they raised electronics on fire, gross marges expanded and the spin is coming in eighteen months.

All right. I will see a background closing bell in a couple hours time. The exchange begins. Now you've been listening to see nbc halftime report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at twelve etern only on cnbc.

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What's next for amErica the morning after breaking election results critical inside from campaign insiders how voters are king about the economy your money, your vote swap box wedding day special time five A M R C N B C.