Taking Stock of the Rally 11/8/24
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I'm scot opener and you're listening to c nbc halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. You record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in.

I call thanks so much. Welcome to the half time report on Scott walking in front center. This house is amazing week for the Marks as socks posed in on yet another major milestone.

We will discuss the debate with the investment joining me for the hour today. Everybody here first tin ryan belsky SHE is a kotik Kevin sims. And we will check the markets where or up nicely across the board.

The S N. P, as I say, just shy of six thousand got within a couple of point, will track IT through this hour and let you know the moment IT gets there, if in fact, IT does. But brand IT has been an incredible week. It's great to have you with this here. Bank of amErica flow showed day, says conventional wisdom they're talking about trump two point o election to inauguration day is a risk on window of opportunity that how you see that .

I do I think that the election has cleared and obviously what everyone expected didn't happen. And now we have the republicans will say in in charge of washington. I think we have less regulation if you feel animal spirits in the market already, right?

I think he saw regional banks that posed to ten percent the other day. And so I think that we're going to have people excited about the economy next year. I think there's going to be different spots that do well next year.

I definitely think the brainy is gone to continue. And I think that we have to think about inflation as rates are coming down. We're all going to continue to talk about deficits and deficit spending, but interest rates cause inflation, not deficits. And so I think four years from now, we're talking to be talking about deficits. And so I think as long as inflation is going in the right direction, the economy set up to do really well.

Why do we have a window of opportunity for risk on here for at least from election day to an August day, if not further?

I think we do. And we were very lucky enough to change our target to sixty one hundred. And we did.

We saw that there was still a lot of money on the sidelines. You saw that reactionary trade on wednesday when people piled into financials. As you know, I love to say financials, financials, financials.

We really believe that people were under invested their sky. And so when you see that type of move, that only exemplifies that. That's number one again to what brin saying we've been saying for once now that the broadening out is happening and that is actually really, really, really positive.

Now i'm not going to sell my thunder r for my forecasts for next year. That would be great to for up twenty five percent again next year. I don't think we're going to be however, IT actually could be more a positive or quite Frankly, because you have more companies that are earning Better, that are more attractive ly value, yet performance from value dividing growth, small mid cap. And I think I think next year is going to be really the year one of this phase .

of Normalization OK to take stock, if you will, of this, we can know how you're thinking about if there is, in fact, a reset for expectations on what the market can do for the next you five weeks or set like seven weeks, excuse me. And then beyond that.

I think the reset is really on the magnitude, the rally that we could happen to the metal to the end of the year. Excuse me. Um I think many of us thought that with this value of uncertainty lifted, that we would see similar to other us presidential years that we would see irri into the end of the year.

However, I think that we saw glimpses of prior to the election, you know some of the resurgence of that mega cap growth trade and that concentration that we had seen people were really hungering down for those that did have strong growth positioning in areas that had done well earlier in the year. And we saw that, that that broadening out that we saw on the third quarter was really winning. So I think Scott's more about the fact that this trade, this potential red sweep in washington has created enough positive business momentum and sentiment that you're seeing that broadly out continue where we hadn't seen that strength coming into the election. And so I think it's a little bit less about uncertainty being lifted, actually think it's more about a more prescriptive approach to positioning through .

the end of the year. Now OK, you you ve got people who you know had some cash on, on the side. Maybe we're a little high and cash and we like I don't want to miss out on on what the flow show is talking about. If if there's this window of opportunity, to say the least, then maybe you have a flood of money come into the market to try and take advantage of that between now and the end of the year.

You can almost guarantee IT because it's an opposite to sell. The news here, you had so many people nervous about what would happen for the election, what's going to happen with respected fed cuts. I was really these thrilled and just enjoying a very boring meeting yesterday.

Another was one sound by at the end, but for the most part, twenty five basis points. Well, telegraph was perfect, I think twenty five basis point cut for decembers on the table. Maybe you take a pause in the beginning january, but the broadening out is for real. The higher markets moving on momentum is real and cash moving off the sideline is.

well, okay, I thought what we would do, which which could be constructive for our viewers, is take stock of the things that really, really work this week in video. Let's let's just start there. Eight and half percent game this week.

IT finally talked apple in terms of its market cap, joins the doubt a day. It's a new record high. today.

There is the market cap race between these two companies, three point sixty verses three point forty. In terms of invidia, you own the stocks. So how are we thinking about something that obviously works really well today? We will start here within video.

I think that the playbook was set up that if you listen to a google, microsoft, amazon, meta, they talked about spend, spend, spend. And we all know in video getting a chunk of that spend. And so their earnings come out, I think, of november twenty of that.

I just and so we're gonna crash IT again, and I think Johnson delivers the goods. And so I think after we've had these earnings come out with the hyper sketchers who are just printing cash and then spending that cash, we know it's gonna to NVIDIA. And so I think this trade is gonna last at least another few quarters in terms of people moving to in video.

And you have the opportunity, right? The stock was between one hundred and hundred and thirty for a couple months and basic now. And so now it's it's breaking out of that. I think it's gona break out going into the earnings.

That's basically how Jeffery's france is thinking about IT. They look at this stock along with marvell and then broke as having the most upside because of exactly what we said. The hyper scales are accelerating their spend.

They're telling you they're going to spend poor. They're tel, they're telegraphing what's what's coming and to bring point, well, where does the majority of that money go? Probably in video with some others.

I think Kevin said at best, we're going to buy the news, I think and jenson is going to deliver the goods. We're going to buy the fundamental ahead of that. What's really interesting about the semiconductor space as an industry we're been talking, excuse me, a long time about stock picking right in the dispersion side of things have been increasing dispersion of performance to, uh, fundamental performance, technical performance, valuation. So that really speaks to honing in on the issues that you want to be in, in NVIDIA, clearly is the leader.

brock brock as well.

So then you get to think about OK. So when is AMD going to get going if you want to start thinking about stock picking and getting in early, that's why we're kind of looking more and more A M D because maybe the next big performance push in twenty twenty five can come from a stock.

Yeah stock is had a decision week with everything else, a rising tide is ultimately be going to lift many, if not all, boats. A, M, S, up about five percent on the week. Kevin, you own in video and broken.

invited, for me, is the best of times worse, the time story, because the god entered into the doll. Jone's industrial average today, which is a bench market against our flagship dividend portfolio. And yet your hand cuffe promoting IT because the dividends like a rounding error on the other side and grow strategy, we own IT, you know crushing IT, and we're really excited about that. But it's going to make IT my job top for a benchmarking against the door.

Maybe there will be a divided story to talk about IT with with this company in the future from .

our right there.

I don't know they'll going have so much cash fall all over the place that maybe they'll need to return some more to shareholders. We shall see tesla up almost thirty percent this week. Trillion dollars in market cap, highest lever since April of twenty two is a new high. Obvious reasons by now, you know, obviously the proximately to power and think that we've suggested or or characterized IT, characterized IT as with musk playing such a prominent role throughout this cycle.

Yeah think I mean really hard, hard week for the shorts. That's just like a continues to be a window ker trade. Putting does not a good idea to short like one of the most innovative people in the world. So I think right now, when I look at looking at the hottest st contracts right now on the options market of the top ten, tesla zero date to explorations are three of the top ten options traded at the day in call buying. So is definitely a lot of like ephori around this.

Is IT too much? So is there too much? We get IT.

We get IT, right? We've all seen mask and trump. Yes, we know he's going to have access.

He's already a large government contractor, as you said. Does that even increases that worth? Is just surging.

I think once things settled down and that ultimate you go back to the last earnings call, they said in the first half of the year, they're onna. Have, let's just say, the three series with the sudan, like the new model, the robot taxi is further out. I have a tesla autonomous is is kind of there, but it's not there, right? Is a difference.

And so I think that in the first quarter, as we all settle down with the market, I think you're gona continue to save volatility. But do I think you know three, seventeen, that's that's A A great stock. I I would be somebody in calls right now. But if I warned I would be selling calls here, I think it's pretty topic IT.

Would you do that too? Because you guys have employed a somewhat similar strategy at times as well.

So we only tested our gross strategy, were thrill with the performance. We're going to be selling calls today.

Yeah, you just think I think there's just a little too much in in one week.

I do. I do you think there's little too much in one week? But to brings point, the option premiums, what you can get, what you can generate, it's like picking low hanging fruit. So IT gives us the opportunity to still participate in some upside but generate massive premium in the center.

What the most interesting stocks to the week, I think, was uber, you know, because in part on the election in there was a moment where uber was down that the next day, and then I recovered a little bit. It's going to be down on the week. So as so many different things, especially in the growth space, have rally, this one did not.

You bought IT. I find that interesting. Tell me why. Yes.

I bought IT. Personally, I think it's interesting. I think there is a pair trade happening in the hedge fund world with long test like short uber or vice versa, right? Because these algorithm trades flip lap all the time when the we robot day was over, uber was up like six or seven percent the next day, because everyone s like, okay, uber, fine.

And so I think you still have this pair trade happening right now. So uber under pressure, I think, once again, over the next few months that dissipate. What I did though is I bought I bought uber last week, really like seventy three, and then I sold the january eighty calls and collect IT around like two, two, twenty two dollars and twenty cents and premium for three months.

But if you actually go in, tesla and uber, have a partnership, if you want to drive, if you want to be an uber driver, tesla will give you two thousand and credits to to buy a tesla as a driver for uber. And so I think a lot of this stuff is overblown. I think ultimately, there's going to be two winners in the space for different reasons. I thought IT was a good entry point. I think there's just some algorithm pair trading happening .

between the two .

you bought you at two. Yeah, we bought back in August of twenty twenty three because in the industrial space at that time, we were kind of confused about what was going to be driving, literally driving industrial domestic growth or international growth. Uber is technical industrial stock.

And so we still like the name a lot we would be adding. But also you think about the sector composition should never been industrial, just like this should test a consumer directionality. If you're running sector money, you absolutely have to have some exposure to those names. okay.

The other thing that worked pretty darn well, financials up five and five percent as a sector, but some of the names within the space, golden sex, up thirteen and a half percent. These are all gains this week. Organ stani, eleven.

Bank of america, eight and half wells in city, 8。 J, P, M, seven percent. Kevin, you bought some more J P. Morgan in in your devo this week. We did IT before the election.

Scott. We had to call away on standard exploration tion on ten, eight and a, two, twenty two and a half when you and I were talking before the show is sometimes stocks get called away. J.

P. Morgan pulled back a little bit, built and filled in our whole entire position. And then we saw what happened on wednesday, which was fantastic.

So that was a scenario where we didn't have any covered calls going into the election. But since then, we're writing them, and I would expect that we will be doing so on. Jp, more going again next week mean.

there's a ephorus sweeping through the hall of investment banking areas of these institutions. Now thinking about these bright horizons that lie ahead on ema and all this pent up demand that that out there, regulations coming in, how should we think about this space now?

Yeah there's two legs of this. It's deregulation at you know sort of the industry level and so and accelerate to realizations to portfolio companies, particularly the private actually space. If you look at areas like industrial's technology um and consumer, you also Scott, although he had already been deluded, this changes the game once again for bazo three and game.

And so you're to use two lanes of potential acceleration for financials. And so know in the last thing is, is really thinking about if there is a thrust for growth. You could even touch that regional banking component of IT because their credit book might look a lot Better at the end of next year than that does now.

So IT makes sense. I think people looked at two thousand and sixteen, and we're sort of looking at that playbook. It's a different playbook today. But IT doesn't mean that there isn't .

the same type of impulse for finances now in america. Excuse me, up to bye. From neutral over at city Price target to fifty four in the risk reward, paradise has seemingly changed. Now you have full blown tail wins rather than some tail wins. But potential headwinds, I will hear people talking about headwinds at all now in this space, unless you were to get, you know, the economy slowing down, but people are even taking that off of their bingo cards.

I be really happy if we never talk about Price to tangible book. Again, everywhere we talked about all the the I think what we're seeing is the theme is finally working. What's the theme scale? So bank of america, because of america.

N J. P. Morgan, because of the gold standard city group of the turnaround. Morgan stanly, because it's the last of the big box retail in terms of the broken age business, golden sex because of investment banking and so that the scale business regions because the of the regional banks that have over reserved that are probably going to see some combination and or use that over reserve money to buy what back more occupational tive than IT .

by guy privately, ally people appear. I mean, does anybody owned .

the p firm stocks on?

Because I mean, those are rip to. We can show some of them on the week areas, K, K, R, blackstone, blackrock. I mean, a lot of these places have just had incredible gains this week.

The assets lie, right? The assets that these P E firms that acquired when interest rates for zero one percent, pretty amazing. And so what's can end up happening now when you start to see interest rates settle in there, I think you're going to see even more activity. And so given the also private lending that a lot of these private equity companies are doing, I think these stocks are very, very good.

We have a newsletter er, I want to get to requip. We will come back to our conversation in a moment, but pippa Stevens is going to tell us what's moving with boeing here.

Hey, Scott. Well, boy is reportedly expLoring a sale is jepsen unit, according to bloomberg, which said that the sale of the company, which makes navigation charts, could fish as as as much as six billion dollars as boeing IT does seek to lighten its a dead load now this comes after boeing CEO Kelly odd berg told cnbc last month that he would rather do less Better than doing more and not well when asked about the possibility of having to shed assets. You see there, the stock is fractionally higher.

Sky, okay, all right. Pip, thank you. Pip Stevens, with the update their shen was talking about you regional banks, the Russell up eight percent this week. It's the best in june of twenty, june of twenty twenty. The K, R, is having its best week in a year. How are are we thinking now about a renewal for regional banks without some of the overhanging that we've been talking about for the last two years? IT feels like.

So q four of twenty, twenty, we are saying the economy is going to expand, and when the economy expands, you buy smoke at value. And so there's actually an etfs. V, we saw that.

We saw that the end of twenty twenty one IT was a great trade, but what IT owns is the regional banks and industrials. But IT has a quality screen, and that was up nine percent the day after the election. And if you wanted to own a quality regional, I think that s balls, a good way to do that.

I do you think it's interesting about what chain and hit on if you really get like a bozo three redo or take away a lot of these banks have not been doing loan growth, and that's where this growth with private credit has come because they've been doing the lending that the regional banks have been not willing to do. And so that could open up if that actually transport ires with the regional banks actually can start growlin again. I will say it's like as long as rates, you know, you have to look at the baLance eet S V B collapse because they had a poor treasures that remains about you. But but I think playing high quality regional banks, that etf is a good .

way to do that. Yeah, I mean, bozzle three was already gonna be watered down from what I was initially feared. The banks and ceos had successfully sort of Bobby, for that to happen.

Now you you have a fully deluded pond of a regulation as a relates to that, right? There could be even more water down at this point, right? All that's beneficial. Yeah, I think people .

were buying the big banks because the liquidity, just like they went to big cap tech when they didn't know what they want to do. Now I think there's a Better feeling that from a fundamental perspective, you have a bid now for some of these regional banks, especially like the brain. Talk about clean, baLanced.

When you look at small cap banks, like below ten billion dollars, a lot of these companies have amazing cash flow, great, great baLance sheds. Some of them actually even paid dividends. And so I think that's something that's been kind of lost in the era of investing the smoke out value. So very big believer s.

So on that note, I find we mention we get into the regional because we talk about the Russell having such a strong week up a bit percent. Tony pesaro of golbin sax just put his weekly, no doubt, where he's talking about what he calls a quote, shift in thinking where he says for a long time now you've been paid to stay in the pocket and simply own snp in its off the shelf captained ted form.

I tend to think the next phase of this game will favor equal waited strategies, which is to say, S P W over S P X IT just speaks to you don't necessarily need to lean so in to watch the biggest that now you actually have runway for. What is mid caps, small caps? Equal weight versus cap s and p.

What do you think? I think I think it's it's very easy to give this argument because you know that I have been quick constructive on small caps for some time. However, I think what you really want to think about is what is the what the drivers of that move to large cap growth, for instance. And you are really looking at IT in terms of what brian was just saying. You strong baLance sheet, strong free cash flow, the ability to be a force, if you will, in a time of uncertainty.

I think now what you're looking at is that historically, you know, when do smaller companies do well when they have a foundational tail wind of economic growth? Boy, that seems like it's gonna a catalyst to in a lower rate environment, right? We're probably not going to see rates going down as much as maybe we had thought a few months ago.

However, the trend based on powers commons yesterday is clearly to the dog ward direction as is inflation. The last thing, scot, is that it's really about the universe of these companies and the representation of some of these more signal businesses. If we are looking at a potential industrial influx of activity, there is a lot more representation in this universe in small cap. So I think it's more it's less about just a cap trade and valuation, and that's the important thing. I can't just be about valuation.

There has to be catch coin base. This week, Kevin simpson, you own in, in, in the Q, D. Vo, it's only up forty five .

percent this week.

IT to a record high. 你 know people pointing trumps the bit point。 President IT was just one of the asset classes that ripped along with so many different other things in me caught on, quote, trump trade honestly .

didn't think was gonna up forty percent in a week. So i'll confess to that. But IT was a proxy for crypto to actual business to returning to profitability trades with the thirty three pe, again, its inner grow strategy. We'll get to a few other names in there today and have a lot of fun on the friday. But when these stocks rip, boy.

and they rip, what about what didn't work? You know, staple els utilities, brian, they did nothing this week among losers and staples s dollar brand form and dollar general archer Daniel IT loses seven to, you know, four percent, respectively. There china names, obviously, given part of the announcement today, the package over five years to tackle the local governments hidden debt, a lot of the china related names are down.

Bond proxies, as I said, staple util lies down. Because if you do have the prospective of higher rates, if the feed is going to be a little bit slower, if the trump agenda is more reflationary, uh, then you have the possibility of rates of the longer and deficit, deficit increasing rates going up, bond proxies going down. Yes.

I think we learn prety quickly. That is not just about new power generations and all of that with AI coming in utilities, you actually have to run a business that has me cash flow and yields. And so I think that's why utilities got really, really expensive um in in the third quarter.

So I am not surprised we've been underweight staples. All you are long the only staple stocks we own in our us portfolios, our costco, walmer. And so the other areas have been expensive.

I think people are hiding in those names and they're not growing anymore. And so from a product and space is undammed, don't think people are using that those products. Eia, about health care.

you ve got to pick your spots.

A lot of them were down this week.

I think farmer, I think you know R, F, K, junior gets a position somewhere on there. And I think with farmers next year, that to me is the area where you could see there's a lot of mess and will see would actually what position you actually gets, what what you actually able to push push through. But to me, I think within the farm, a name, not health care in general, but farmer, you wanted just be mindful of where his eye is on because I think that will cause a ton of headlines on the wrong way.

Yeah, yeah, to say the least. And so important, the car before the horse, two in in many respects, shine. How shall we look at at this space?

Well, I think the other thing that you're seeing is that you we've always viewed healthcare as being a combination of both offence and defense. However, there's a lot easier ways right now to garner offence in your equity portfolio. And so and there isn't this overhang. I think you know when you look at the platform for truck two point o, that health care question remains. And so that's why even on the private side, Scott, looking at that realization of health care companies in the private equity space, maybe not quite as much of a cat yis is those other sectors that I .

mentioned earlier. Quick break, we come back. Brin has another new buy will tell you about that.

Kevin. Simpsons got a handful of new moves as well. We'll do all of that after this quick break.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I C N B C, Jessica adding, good, follow and listen to C N B C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Are I welcome back to get to these moves that I mention? We have brain bot dell.

yeah you do that. Michael dell houston base. It's in bay sky. Um okay.

so that's why I just give shout is .

you know never never .

sumption.

So you I just give china given to china. okay。 So so if you go back to the NVIDIA discussion, we had early hyper scale ers are telling you what they're doing.

And I just give you a line that sought you that on the call, he's like I grow this supply constraint. Hardware cannot keep up with demand and data centers are not built overnight. So you have that in.

Jensen talks about Michael dell in a vi and dell all the time. Couple of that with the issues going out to S, M, C, I, which both dell and H P, I think i'll be beneficiaries. And so I took the opportunity I about at last week at one thirty I sold though the january one forty five calls and got over seven dollars of corey.

Um so Kevin, you degree is huge cock. Mim, my guess is that runs up there before and I get called away, but that's that's what you do with cover calls. I think it's a .

good trade over the next three. Ah stocks spent up eighty percent just about year to date. So we will continue to follow that one, obviously.

Thank you. And shut out for all our friends down and used them. I, Kevin, you you bought more of the C.

M. I, and you bought more of a max. Tell us about those before I get to the others.

So every stocks that I own doesn't go up forty percent in the week. There were some stocks that the post trump er away went the opposite direction. And I think for the wrong reasons, the cma group was down most likely because of the fall of a Cliff and volatility, thinking that the trading volume might be down.

So which look, that is an opportunity to add to a trading volumes of eighteen percent year over year. We talked about this in the past as a dividend play, return to cash, return cash to shareholders through share buybacks. And in december the past three years, they've initiated a special dividend that's just been increasing, increasing, increasing. We think that could be as much as six dollars plus this year, and that's not a guarantee, but we want to be in the name before we bought IT on weakness.

you trimmed texas pacific prince gonna very upset with you. But yeah, neither here, neither here nor there.

We only only eight hundred and seventy three thousand and acres in the permit in bed in texas, a big place.

Now, you looked at me is very territorial.

You looked at me squirrelly, when we bought this at all the right reasons. So so we bought this a month ago in the grow strategy.

IT was up a hundred percent.

And why wouldn't you? So one hundred percent profit. Here we go into this name.

We bought IT at nine fifty right now. It's like thirteen hundred and change. So we just forty percent profit a couple weeks. So we trim thirty percent of IT.

Not to say that they can call higher, but I mean, it's it's almost insane to think about how some of these moves that happened. And this is a royalty play on mineral rates, al gas, oil, water. So so we really like IT from an infrastructure play and a data center play. But there are times the right cover calls and sometimes there's time that just takes.

Are geographical experts, by the way, of are suggesting that it's actually Austin necessarily.

He was born, he went went to the same high school.

He went to college. Where is from?

So I said, I said .

he's. Yeah, we got factors all over the play week. Thank you very little for the email. You you know who you are, but the ring was very specific, and I hope they're laughing them. You sold covered calls in apple and you sold covered calls in walmart.

Yeah, not to get too serious on a trading show, but we had made sure that there were no covered calls that we're gona be in existence. So everything that we had inspired on or before eleven one, we have got burned a little bit. In two thousand and sixteen, we remember these lessons, same thing, same practice, and twenty, twenty, no option heading into the election night, things rally, be able to participate in all of that.

And then on wednesday, we sold calls on warmer. We sold calls on apple. Just taking advantage was still high volatility, still tremendous strength. And this is this is a way to add some hedging to your portfolio, but also some great cash one OK.

Thank you. Let's get the headlines now.

a pip of Steve and type a hey, Scott, special council javita is looking to pause the trump criminal case to assessing what he calls the unprecedented circumstance. The notice came as part of the prosecutions motion to vacate all pending deadlines in the election. In reference case, Smith says he will decide by december second how to proceed.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin ntn yahoo o has appointed a new ambassador to the united states, the U. S. Born a heel lighter who previously served as chief of staff in the finance ministry.

And we replace ambassage Michael hazael that yahoo said lighter was a highly talented diplomat with a deep understanding of american culture and politics. And at least four wildfires are continuing to threaten parts of new jersey fuels by a dry and unseasonably warm conditions in the northeast, which has put the region into drought. Though some rain is in the forecast over the weekend, which could help firefighters dampen the flames, causes for the wild fires are still under investigation. Scot, back to no.

i've pen. Thank you. You pick the Stevens coming up. Josh Brown hitting the cell button on a key name in his ortons lio. He is going to join us next and document that train.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I C N B C, Jessica adding, go, follow and listen to see abc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Point a half away from S N. P. Six thousand, as you just saw there will monitor that.

But mike and totally IT just speaks to the kind of week this is then our senior markets commentator, of course, is here for his mid. They were the downs above forty four k. Nobody Better really to take stock of all this than you.

Well try, Scott, really is kind of pathology. Resistance type action is very hard to push back too forcefully against just the magnitude of the aggressive moves, the response to that volatility crush, and everything of this happened this week. What I do find interesting is there's plenty of stocks that people are finding an opportunity to light in upon on.

People are focusing bet, whether that is on the year to date, leaders, which really Carried the day yesterday and into today or whether IT was the one day burst of rotation into circles and financials and the like. So it's it's enough to Carry here six thousand nine to think in itself has a ton of significance except that it's also twenty five percent of year to date. It's also comes at a point when the S P.

Is looking a little bit overboard. That's not necessarily a really entitled that's more strength. But now you should set expectations accordingly to how fast you can pile up gains from this .

moment on return. People are talking on that note today. Might that you have a risk on you clearing event that could last from election day at least to inauguration day on the of january?

I definitely think that is the tail wind and there is no doubt that, that remains in place with something would have to come along to disturb that. Um but that doesn't mean you go up every day doing mean you know pullbacks. And if you look at things like the path from election day through an inauguration, at some point in there, usually you have some gift back. Maybe it's january is business, but even at that, we already up a few percent from right before the election. So you know you have to just I always feel as if you don't get hurt setting expectations low if .

you remain involved. Of course, where we are, right? Let's see on on closing bell, we got within a point of six thousand on the and p josh Brown is going to join a snow with his trade update. And I do know that while we're in break, we will probably cross six thousand just because that's the way things go in TV. We're back after this.

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I walk back, the TV gods were looking out force today. We did not cross six thousand during the commercial break. Will keep watches we welcome in josh Brown. So give me your thoughts on this week before I get to these moves because it's been quite extraordinary on many levels in many different things. Josh.

yeah, I think it's such a great affirmation for investors everywhere that risk is rewarded over long stretches of time. And I was just looking my first appearance on cnbc, talking markets with with the viewers, the S. N.

P five hundreds at twelve hundred or twelve fifty or something. So it's up four hundred percent in the last almost fifteen years. And you not every day and not every month. And there were periods of time during that stretch where we had taken huge steps back multiple, multiple times.

But the overall king message has always been, you won't be rewarded every day for the risk that you take, but if you take intelligent risks, things are ultimately be going to work out. And and I think that affirmation right now, whether we hit six thousand today, monday, tuesday, is not the most important thing. The most important thing is that people are listening and they are taking care of themselves in their portfolios accordingly.

right? We to watch that as we talk to about these moves. So you sold sweet Green.

That's number one. Tell me about that move and what why you did that? Yes.

week Green went up, went up a bunch after I bought IT and it's a recent position of mine and I brought on technicals. They reported last night the stock was I to know off like five ten percent. I thought I was a good report, the guidance they gave a range where maybe was a little bit of a disappointed and I saw a couple of firms either just reiterated or one firm lowered its targets a this morning.

So uh, I don't feel terrible that I walked away from the trade. IT may set back up. I may want to get back in. It's still on my screen.

IT was a goldman downgrading today to neutral. Yeah, they had a had to buy. They maintain their forty dollar Price target as we know.

It's where the judge one thing with me is that I have a lot sure to the space already because of the stock we're about to talk about. But i'm also in the shake shack and at a certain point, like you have to you have to pick your favorite.

okay? So sweet Green is toasts, so to speak, but toast is not. Yes, I say that way because those shares are surging today. New fifty two week high, highest level since december of twenty one.

Yeah, look, this business added this company added seven thousand net new locations over the last nine days, and they are now one hundred and twenty seven thousand restaurants utilizing toast products. And the beauty of what this company does is they get themselves in the door via the payment gateway. Anyone who's ever bought a muffin in an airport understands, know the screen and you hold your phone up to IT.

But once they're in the door with restaurants and restaurant chains, that opens up the potential of all of these other solutions they sell. And what they found is that when companies, for example, use their White labeled ordering solution, so like being able to go on a nap and order or something from your favorite restaurant, because toasts is providing their technology, the loyalty of that customer goes up and the frequency of ordering, and that is the growth business. Annual recurring revenue, which I think is the most important part of this story, hit one point six billion as of the last quarter.

Judge, that's up twenty eight percent year over year. There aren't that many companies in the payment space that had been able to grow at this pace, and now they're doing so profitably. So I feel that my early interesting in stock is now being vindicated by the actual results, and i'm to stick with IT.

All right, just for clarity sake to um just saying that sweet Green is toasts in josh's polio you never know.

never know people sweet will be fine but again, I I know I can hold everything to a small profit there, but this one i'm going to step with .

wasn't making a broader comm. And obviously, thank you, josh. good. We can tell me on the side josh Brown to set up his next.

We have back and we have to set up for you next week earnings. Cisco systems wednesday after the bell, brian bell city that stuck at at fifty two week yesterday.

What you think you know people forget that cisco uh actually is a great barbell opportunity with some of the more expensive a named in tech. And we honor in valdivieso th and stock increasing dividends for ten years a great name.

Disney is thursday before the bell. What do we think about disney here?

Yeah one of the streamers that are actually making money um we would probably rank at forth we still think that bob bikers doing a good job in terms of taking out .

capacity there shop a fy is tuesday. You are on that too. Yeah.

we owned in canadian dollars in canada and we owned in U. S. Dollars in america.

But you think about a really the belt whale of our economy. We talked a lot about on the show today. Small mid cap companies, both private and public and shop fight, is the portal .

for small and cap U. S. dollars. Dollars strong this week?

yes.

What do you think about directionally stocks in general, which you've had a good week Carried obviously in part by tesla, amazon. But is there renewal for these kinds .

of stock to you? Yeah, I mean, we didn't I know we were going to talk earlier about home deepo and lulu and some of these names and in the restaurant space in the recovery in the in the real g of starbucks, that there are great stock picking ideas in consumer directionally.

And we think if we talk earlier about how we think burnings and financial companies are understand that we think consumer directionally companies, especially into next year earnings, are way understand. And you want to take look at the consumer direction, you like your take out tesla and amazon and then look at those great companies in terms of how they're earning. Okay.

OK, uh, we'll take a break. Will will come back. Uh, we will talk about a stock.

I mean, I know everything has been talking about everything that up, we will talk about a stock. They're spent on a six week losing street. One of our committee member zones will take you around next.

I walk back stock I was looting to was bhp. It's about to have a six week losing streak. It's down again the day by five percent.

Brain talking and owns that to hp group. What's going on here? China.

china, china. I think we're probably going to easy as a tax loss this year. It's just been brutal like it's done nineteen percent on a prize, fifteen, if you say the five percent, five percent divided and will have the base in australia when the largest miners of iron, copper and coal, but it's china. And so in told china, actually the market believes that these stimulus plans are actually going to move through the economy writ large. I think these will continue to be under pressure like all of the other china derivative trades today.

Mean energy has been so interesting. That is the best performing group under president by in the worst performing group under president trump. S just seem so counterintuitive to how we would would think about the stocks.

IT does what? I think this is just great because obviously, ly, in the commodity space of iron, and you think about china building build deans, that's what they really need. They need B, H, P, and just they're overbuilt there.

And so that to me is like A A different structural headwind. But I think within the energy space, I don't think it's gonna a drill, baby drill. You listen to die on back in the other companies.

These companies are still in fiscal discipline. And I think you're going to keep with the best and breeze companies in the energy space that fiscal discipline. They know investors need that if they are going to want investors to stick around.

Yeah, materials have had a decent week of one and a half percent and certainly had a they've on to perform this year, up ten percent. But just about everything is Green, will take a quick break, will do files next.

Well, we did IT moments ago, the S M P five hundred hitting six thousand for the very first time ever. We're a little below there, but trust me, we did. We first hit five thousand nine months to the day ago, february eighth, twenty twenty four.

This year we had five thousands. Only take nine months to go a thousand S M. P.

point. It's that's the kind of year it's been pretty remarkable by belkis. We watched this market will track for the rest of the day. This you find a trades yeah, yeah, it's amazing.

OK, it's amazing.

I was in what the choker was for but want you give me you a final trade since you're .

so getting thank you so much and thanks for head. A glaser, bank corp. G, B, C, I, K, tana, amazing bank. right? Good stuff.

I bit bit T F. I think having his past, I think there's lots of institutional .

ownership and sentiment and cities.

I think, are the pretty C A group printing money and think there's going to be a special dividend of over six dollars.

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