Markets Brace for Nvidia 11/20/24
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supply i'm scot walter and you're listening to C N B C halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. You record this live weekdays at twelve eastern listen in. Carl, thanks so much.

Welcome to the halftime report. I'm sort walked, ed, their live from the swap impact conference here in difference this go. Do you have a big hour ahead as we debate the current market set up?

Get you ready for a video earnings tonight, of course, joining me for the hours a day, joe terranova Carried firestone, Steve wideband talking things here today as well with us in a moment, we will check the market structure lower across the board. Welp, the dose trying to go positive if it's read on the flat line and make a caps, mostly negative today too. But joe, let's set the stage here.

H, because that is all about counting. Download video today. Shares up fourteen percent in the last three months. The options market is implying in eight and a half percent swing in either direction post earnings. You want to tell me what your own expectations are for this ultra important report?

Well, I think it's critically important for the market as you've already described IT, just from the perspective of we've got this entrenched bullish momentum and the expectation that you could have an end of year rally.

And I think if there is one, one variable that can defeat that premise that can actually halt the end of year rally, it's in videos earnings tonight, and it's a disappointment and it's a disappointment on the upcoming court that ends in january and seeing that figure come in light of the thirty seven billion dollars, I actually think they probably need to do forty billion dollars to get the excitement us in the stock and exceed a lot of the expectations. And I also think there's a tursi effect, Scott, on the entire semiconductor. Let's understand something. The S M H is down basically fourteen percent from its july high, and that's with in video being twenty four percent waiting of that etf. So I think it's critically important the kind of restart the semiconductor industry momentum, which appears to be broken right now everywhere except in video itself.

Steve wise, but spoke, says today since the start of twenty twenty and video has reported an earnings triple play as an e psb to red beat. They raise guides on fifteen of their nineteen reports. And ives, of course, the star analyst over wedbush today says expect another mike drop performance dropped the my performance.

Is that how you see IT? Well, yes, you know, I think it's important to to understand what to what the companies stock did, what the shares didn't, the aftermath of those quarters, in fact, they have beat them all. But yet the stocks sold off in a few years because there is a whispering number, which joe is sort of looting to there.

You know, from my standpoint, the way I look at is I don't expect a big beat. I don't expect a big miss, neither missing or or or beating slightly out. The question. Of course, what i'm looking for and what i'm going on, which will last more than a day, is what demand is. They'll talk about demand and that's going to be critical.

Now I haven't said that if they do miss, of course, and hold tech complex this new gic reaction down h however, I think that could be a buying OPPO tune band bark comes down. But overall, i'm expected demand to be ratified. We see that across the AI complex and that the evolution, you know is still the biggest uptake in spending in any technology that anyone can remember, including cloud, including web, including everything. And that's going to continue. And ultimately, that's all you have to be concerned about.

I mean, the fact the matter is the White, this is not a demand story at this point, right? It's a supply story. How quickly can they get these new chips to market and you serve them up to the hyper scales who were paying for them. On that note, ives continues today, joe. In his and his look ahead to the earnings, he says we continue to estimate for every one dollar spent on an invidia GPU, there is a eight to ten dollar multiply across the tech sector, which speaks to their firmly bullish view of tech stocks for twenty twenty five. Other words, it's this rising tide that will continue to lift all boats.

Um you know what's I have to tell you, i'm somewhat sceptical on that because I don't know that we've seen that effect. That seems as though more recently, we're seeing a narrowing in terms of what the performance looks like for technology companies overall. Got as I said before, a lot of I me conduct their names that are struggling some software names that are struggling in this environment as well. So um I think after this report and as we move into twenty twenty five, i'd like to see what dan is talking about maybe brought out a little bit. Um it's certainly if we see a continuation of the amazon, the alphabet, the microsoft continuing to spend to the degree that they have been spending, I think the opportunities there, but I don't know, i'm somewhat skeptical of what .

is suggesting .

just brand.

join us now on the phone. I hi way, I want to bring in josh to look ahead as well. Obviously, held the stock for a very long time just as one of your largest positions.

I've trying to figure out what what the knocking, if anything, would be on on the story even if it's a good one, if it's the fact that the magnitude, if you will, of the beat has been shrinking. Know it's hard to find any any negatives in in this story. How do you see IT going into the print?

You going to tell you what the number one potential negative my days. And I don't know if it's going to come up during the prepared reMarks or if one of the first analysis in knee q and a portion decide to to bring IT up, but it's going to come up. And the answer to this, uh, issue is going to be, I think, a one of the most important aspects of what gets discussed.

There were reports over the last couple of days that NVIDIA had several times political back to the supplier of the rap for blackwell graphics processing units because of overheating issues when these tips were connected together for custom bills, this is really important. Custom bills are are the highest margin thing that happens in A I right now. So you have this issue, you have server racks that are designed to hold up to seventy two chips.

And there are reports that some of these we've had reports of overheat ing now in the last year. So people have command said, no, that really been resolved. That was months ago.

Don't worry about IT. That's no longer in issue OK great, but it's stold the back of people's minds. And I think even when that comes up, that is what investors will be hanging on.

Is blackwells launch problematic? Or is that all systems go? None of us on a on a show that stop trading have an edge on this. This is engineering stuff. I choose to believe that invidia is good enough to have resolve that issue, but the way they answer questions about IT is going to be very calling to the street.

How big does the guide have to be at this point?

Well, I think the guy has to be up. I don't know how the magi de, but if you look, look, jen wang said, black welcomin, here's the word he used, not my word, although I use this insane. So you have to have a guide of that matches with that kind of terminology, right? Um so that is A A secondary ary risk here is that the guide up isn't digital.

And I want people to realize and i'm sure people to realize this is the company that over the last elf month, they hit the forecasts that we're expected. Um we've seen profits of over sixty billion dollars, not revenue profits that take fifteen fold increase since january of two thousands twenty three eight. So it's really tough to keep people as excited as they have been, and it's really talk to keep racking up guided the extent.

So I don't know that has to be the biggest guy that they're ever done, but IT probably has to match the terminal sae. And I was like, that's another big uh, factor that will decide whether we get rather or Green after the break. Well.

you'll be with this tomorrow. I appreciate Colin, and you'll be with this tomorrow to react to ever happens tonight. And we look forward to that.

But I wanted to hear your perspective going in. So Carry, you don't own the stock, but you do on alphabet, amazon, apple, microsoft and meta. So this matters to the degree you think that this report tonight impacts the performance of mega apps for the remainder of the year.

Yeah, exactly. And of course, IT matters because NVIDIA is not the largest capable sation company in the world and the market is just anticipating breath lessons about this. It's interesting that joe said forties, the number IT feels as if every single day that number to be for next quarter is going higher.

So it's a pretty high bar. And if they are manufacturing problems and they don't hit forty, that will take the market down tomorrow or for a few days at least. And the buyers of all these chips talk about what they're doing with A I constantly.

IT has become the catch word, A I R, catch two letters of this year twenty twenty four. If you look at earnings reports, all A I, A, I, A, I. And if you can't get the chips, that's a problem. And that would be very, very impacted if you can get the chips, if no manufacturing problems, but they just take the number down somewhat. I made if it's not thirty eight, thirty nine, if it's not forty, fine. I don't think the market is going to respond horribly, but I do think the market is going to be very impacted if the number is light on gonda and if manufacturing is the problem that would affect all of tech.

Know you know it's interesting why there is a note out today that reference the ecb. Okay, the european central bank, which said the following about an alleged bubble in A I stocks, they warned about that related to artificial intelligence, which they say could burst abruptly if investors rosy expectations are not met. They note the market, particularly in the united states, has become increasingly dependent on a handful of companies they say, perceived as the beneficiaries of the A I boom. Should we be worrying about that perhaps more than we are, which feels like we're not at all well.

Um I I think IT always is a concern but the but the concentration in a few companies in the magnificent seven goes back a few years. So it's not just related to A I first off i'd say D, C, B, stick to a monetary policy and that stocks now there is without a.

you tell him to stay in their lane.

stay in their lane, baby stay and their lane. And and that there's a reason why they don't have lot of technology stocks over in europe. Now if you take a look at stock that have had a major move relate to A I, they've settled back to your point earlier.

If you take S, M, H, right, which is twenty thousand stocks, there are winners, their loose. So the ones that aren't leverage as much to A I like the quality comes, for example, of an on semi have fAllen back. But yet A I continues to be.

What would we talk about? I believe, our timing differences. So look at microsite here, tell you there's no feeding frenzy in A I.

The stocks don't have your multiple les that are past with their fun males deserve they do. But is IT catastrophic ally, hypotension ally. I don't believe so. And I think that again, these are timing differences. If they are ahead ed of themselves on the fundamental, then we'll catch up to if they pull back.

Joe, do we believe that that any negative news regarding in video would weigh on the idea that you have what some have suggested was almost a free rain of of the market going up from election day to inauguration day.

absolute and the single biggest risk to the bush moments over the next thirty, forty days in place?

I don't take that back from joe we to work on his idea. You want to take that question just all all that writing on this report tonight for the for the view, which has been you know overwhelmingly positive from the result of the election until inauguration day, that the stock market is going up. They may have a couple days here in there that that look on even but that the the coast is clear. It's so to speak until in August day at minimum.

Well, I guess I would play devil s advocate there because I don't really think that you can extrapolate because we've had a nice run in everyone's been new for about no regulation. We're going to the us centric. The us is key. The dollar is king or queen. I just don't know that we believe that or IT should be believed by the market because there are many obstacles.

As we know, inflation could be picking up if we if we have tariff on every import, we know that health care companies are going to be affected, that consumer products companies will be negatively affected if there's all sorts of changes in how we eat, how we are allowed to eat. I just don't feel the market has focused on what negatives could be out there and forget about whether china bombs taiwan or there's a nuclear event in europe, you know, forget that. But even just what we know is positive, things unravel and they can unravel fast. And the market is up twenty three percent this year after twenty six percent last year. Let's not look at IT as if it's always going up at that type of pace.

That's not the market. We're a we're going to document a number of moves that you have Carried coming up in our program. So I don't want to do that now, but you use the word on traveling, which feels like a good word for your our chart the day, which is target.

It's on traveling, that's for sure um because it's having IT had its biggest earnings miss in two years, they cut the full year forecasts. It's a new low. It's the worst days. Ince may of twenty two let's bringing a steff any link she's going to join style. So I don't know what you wanted do with this one today stuff, but just give me a reaction, I suppose.

Well, first, informal. I think this is certainly a target specific issue. This is not a consumer issue, especially when you have that haves like amazon growing revenues at eleven percent, walmart at five point three percent, same store sales, costco the same thing.

Those are the winners. There's no question about IT. I did think target was part of the winners. Clearly, they're not they're losing share.

There's no way to talk about IT differently, right? And IT does speak to the execution lack there of and also just the lack of consistency. So I was nervous headed into the quarter, talked about yesterday on half time with corny.

I was nervous because of the last six quarters, the company missed four times a and they they met once and they beat once. Now add another miss. So what you do, look, there's not much good in this quarter.

We talk about Operating leverage all of the time when margins go higher and revenues go higher, and you really see that draw down to the bottom line. Well, this exact opposite happened when they're Operating margins for four point six percent. Yeah.

hang on two seconds. I've got some breaking news that I wanted get to welcome back to you because I want to really know if you're going to sell the stock. I think our viewers want to know that.

But I do have news today from fed governor Michelle l. Bowen and it's really interesting news um at that he says, quote, inflation progress appears to have slowed. SHE sees great risk to Price stability.

The side of the fed still Mandate also positive possible, excuse me, that we see determination in the labor market. So you know that's about it's about this hawkish of view. I think that we've heard from anybody associated with the fed in some time.

The I know that chair pol, you recently spoke down in dallas where he certainly made IT clear that the fed was no hurry to go on this a cutting path. But I think most still think that we're gonna get another rate cut in december. You can look at the the, the, the fed funds futures here as we sort of think about what lies ahead for the fed.

But this seems to set the stage for maybe a decent coming up. I don't know a from from somebody who declares themselves uh, to be an independent thinker uh, in all of this you still have a probability here of fifty five percent of a rate cut in december. But look at january going down to fourteen percent.

The idea being that, okay, the fatal cut again in december. But then maybe all bets are off for the months that follow. And certainly a fed governor boomin throwing some cold water on the idea that know a lot of cuts are are coming because, as he says, inflation progress appears to have slowed.

I just want to get those headlands out their stuff. But I I want you to answer our question of the day on this stock target. Of course, are you selling IT? No.

no.

i'm not selling IT. I think it's dead money. I think it's a showing me story.

I ouldn't be surprisingly. And activists come in. I think they need that. Something has to happen with corner in his team to get Better in terms of execution. But i'm not selling something that's trading at thirteen times reduced numbers, which I think i've been really reduced when you actually have some of the product initiatives that they have put in place that are working. I E digital growing eleven percent beauty at six percent traffic actually wasn't bad at two point four percent, Scott, it's the conversion of that.

So I think as they make these changes to the product side of things, which they will they're in the process of doing, I think they will eventually get IT, right. But like I said, the last quarter was perfect. They beat, they raised.

And then this quarter, how do you do that? How do you beat and raise one quarter and then just the very next quarter you miss across the spectrum. So it's a show me story. It's disappointing. But at the valuation where IT is, i'm GTA stick with IT.

All right. So I appreciate you. thanks. We'll talk you again soon that Stephanie link. So we watch the market reaction.

We could take a look at bond yields of those booming headlines as we bring in our half time headlines are now jeffrey client p. He is swap chief. Global investment strategies here at impact is nice to see you.

Thanks for coming on with us. Let me just get you to react to a headline like that from governor boomin. I mean, the ecb is is cutting a bunch and maybe we're gonna cut as much as we once thought. Governor bowman suggests that he certainly doesn't appear to be in the camp just to keep cutting interest rates. Meeting after meeting after meeting.

well, certainly had impact on the currency, right? So the dollar has climbed as a result of this. You're going to go higher cash els in the us.

So that's been a bit of a drag on international performance. But the key is we are going to get additional way cuts overseas. Inflation is below two percent targets in most countries around the world.

Fact, we might even see fifty basis point rate cuts from sweden and new zealand and maybe even the cb and certainly canada. What we're seeing is that lifting P E, ray shows in canada already up one point since they are ding rates in june, and we've already seen those markets move away from tech leadership to financials. Financials are the best performing sector overseas key beneficiaries of right cuts. I think that's the story for the next year.

You think international markets are going to outperform the U. S. In five.

I think they can, reaching a convergence of economic growth around the world. The U S. In canada, in china are slowing.

The rest of world accelerating is manufacturing. In the third quarter, european earnings growth exceeded that of the s MPI retied. ally.

See more that next year accelerating from .

a much lower base. Easy, busy and sure.

Um but that also tells the potential risks um that that exists. I mean, those economies are much, much weaker than the united states. Are they not?

They are. They're more dependent on manufacturing than the U. S. Is U. S. More service spaced economy. But I think we're seeing an improvement in the train of, of course, that to put at risk by terrors, but we are sing and improving in the PMI was a great gage of manufacturing activity.

I think that continues to rise. You suggest twenty, twenty five could be a year of hurdles, those that your word hurdles for stocks. why?

Well, a lot of volunteer li, we've got potential fiscal policy tightening in eur. Believe in or not, they're addressing their deficits where the us. Were not.

So that could be a little bit of a drag on growth. But at the same time, these terrified es, I think, are absorb yes, they're going to generate some headline risk. But I think for the most part, we ve already seen adjustments.

Look at european automatic ers. The shots were down seven and nine percent after the election. Yet the currency y is already just about the likely amount of the tariff move, meaning no net impact on the cost or the sales impact there. So I think there's some .

is the principal party. Your argument um of why europe perhaps looks looks more attractive is that there's more opportunity for multiple expansion in europe than there is here because the markets are more full.

so to speak. That's the key. You're looking at a Price or multiple of less than fourteen times learnings for international equities. I can here like a nearly to a coke where you ve got a four P E point difference to essentially companies and tell the same products to the same customers around the world.

Do do you feel though it's going to be in the competition for investor dollars? You know, have a new administration coming in. There's a lot of optimism around you. All of the economic policies, extending the tax cuts, deregulation, we get to terrify a moment of because that's a separate issue. But given the optimism that exists for what's about to take place, people who are bullish suggest, because of an incoming administration, aren't investor dollars going to flow to the trade and three united states equity markets?

I think they have I think that's what would you seeing post election. I think is we digest of this and going into next year, what we see is that virgins of global economic growth and think that the economics over the policy that's really gona drive markets.

You've looked at the idea of terrifying in terms of what they mean for performance, especially over in europe. IT seems to me from the impacts that you look at and you have a list of potential impacts that the the net, the sum of all that is not that much of a big deal that the markets can still perform well even in the face of terrace because they have proven that they've been able to do that in the past.

That's true. And so it's certainly we loop back in the first administration that was the case. But this president elect trump has talked about a lot of terror, sixty percent of china, twenty percent across the board.

But if we take a look and may be a more realistic ternary of ten percent across the board tariff s the I M F in their latest world economic outlook in october, looked at what would be the global impact of that IT shaved zero point one percent of a global growth next year. A very a small number we can talk about, about why, but it's less important than the reality. The terrorists just don't have the dire impact that a lot .

of the stand when you look at china, for example, or even india, which we've been talking about on our program for you, I don't know, eighteen months, two years, the amount of optimism that has existed around india, what do you see related? There's they're still opportunity and markets like that.

India is everything going right? It's exact opposite of china. We're kind of everything is going wrong, but the sound trading at twenty four times earnings. So it's in there. And I think if anything should start to go wrong in india, those thoughts are vulnerable to a pullback in the same way that should things begin to go right in china.

those things can we do for a bash? Just spending some time with us. Jeff, thank you.

Jeff clintock here with us. H wab impact or I still ahead. We do have, as I said, fresh committee moves today from Carry Steve .

y system as well will document them next experienced the power of C N B C prose best deal of the year track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized .

are welcome back.

Let's go through some of these moves that its earlier that we have today Carry you up first you you bought more E P M systems and you bought more pay com. Tell me why you well.

both of them are software companies. So that was one reason why they declined as the whole AI move moved up that part of the market. So these are two companies, good long term growth, very, very good valuations right now.

We had some industry and also company specific factors with each of them that are starting to turn around. So the stocks have come down. They could not absolutely in terms of their relative multiple, and we're seeing some signs of improvement. And so we thought they were attractively Priced and we added to the positions.

You trimmed booz Allen, you trimmed health equity and then you trimmed blackstone. I want you to start with blackstone. We are talking so much these days about the financials and private equity in this part of the you know new optimism around private equity and eggs, hits and dry powder and less regulation. And like, so why did you trim that?

Well, I think that was a weight of management of the portfolio issue. Blackstone had been one of our largest positions. IT has been a fantastic stock, enormous enthusiasm about private equity over the next few years.

Steve swards men, very best friend of Donald trump. We've seen them together. A lot less regulation. I mean, a perfect storm on the upside.

So we just term some because we thought that was the right move to do, but we're right message is you sell high. It's very high. The others. So how that quality is traded up with the financials, tell that when you trade up with the financials. And also and also booz Allen on the defense had been very, very strong and we took some profits there.

Okay, why you bought more lidos, you bought more vert.

right? Look out T A third of came out on their best with yesterday earlier this week raised guidance over a five year period or margins as well as for revenues. And then yesterday can out with supervised announcement, which is that in in partnership with compass data, they have now developed a new cooling rack.

Judge spoke about cooling rax before. Vert is a pure play here. And they have developed one that can, that can go back and forth from air cool to water cool, water cool, being set ted down and also mention a bully billion of the contract. So all stocks up fifteen percent yesterday.

I still think it's cheap, and I think earning existence will go up as they sell this product to more, more data centers in terms of light us let us like whose down is down twenty five percent, whose down down little more because with doge, with cutting back on spending, uh, what you have is a lot of employees, civilian employees working in Parker defense. I believe those will be the first to go when they cut costs because that these est wants to cut no united center. And I believe the stocks have reflected that now. And light is in the sweet pot in so many other areas like health care, like technology is set to. So that's why attitude.

right? Good stuff. Thank you for that. Let's get the headlines now with silvana ha.

Now hi silvana. He's got good afternoon. In the case that became a flash point in the immigration debate leading up to the election. The man accused of killing georgia nursing student later, Riley was found guilty of murder today. POS Anthony about I was convicted on all counts, including felony murder, and faces life in prison.

Iata, who was in the country illegally, was convicted of killing Riley while he was out running near the university of georgia campus and happens. A report from the consumer financial protection bureau found major student loan services are allegedly made handling payments. Multiple lawsuit accused services of pulling money from borrowers account even though they did not consent to auto pay or taking incorrect amount for those enrolled in auto pay.

And rock entertainment group, which host cleveland cavaliers owner, and gills sports and entertainment properties. Total I C A wills a formal bid for A W N B A team officials in cleveland. The city is well position for women's team, the w MBA has said. IT plans to grow the league to sixteen teams by twenty eight. Got all .

right. So bon to thank you. That's so bon to have now. okay. Up next, mix and toli has his midday world.

We serve some calls to do, and we hope to hear from brin as well on NVIDIA. next. Back care and experiences oswald impact our senior markets commentator mike and toli join us now with his midday word. I'm obviously wanted get to take on in video but first, what you making these booming headlines that moved yeah reinforcing .

this sort of growing sense out there that everybody's revising up their sense of where the neutral rate is. There just might not be that much air underneath where thread funds are right now and and where they ultimately are gonna settled, just in best case, neutral scenario. So it's definitely giving an extra little firmness to the yellow complex at the moment.

They never really did come in that much um this week, pretty much at the upper end of their range. The dollar similarly at the upper end of a two year age. And I feel that one of the things let's keeping the stocks indexes in this kind of hold and turn and wait and sea type of mode right now, the us. And people I to spend into all the last four days within the range of november six, that was the day after the election. So it's really about burning off some of those immediate excesses and and wait and watch meanwhile, an absolute speculative frenzy going on in other parts of the market with crypto related in short .

tween and means that yeah in video, does that get them have to potentially get the market out of that range?

IT probably does. I do think that it's probably healthy that the stock is coming in a little bit because again, I got really stretch in a whole pile on the fact and I was setting the bar pretty high. I think going into the numbers of maybe we're cooling IT little bit from here, but yeah, there's no doubt about is really the last big piece of the whole kind of A I mega cap growth, uh, capex expectation thematic cycle that we have for this year. So obviously, it's good to a matter now the reported in August, obviously, invidia didn't trade that well off IT, but the overall market didn't necessarily follow IT down. So you have to keep in in some mike dx.

also on the bell, as mike and told our senior markets commentators take a quick break, will come back calls of the day, including a big downgrade today for a blue chip bank name. Take about IT next as this too calls of the day. I want to start with J.

P. Morgan. Downgrade today to a perform from outperform open hyper joe, what do you make a this call?

I can say that I disagree with the call. Look, i'm still gonna stand with the position. And for those that are concerned about their positioning, let's give you a tactical reference for a point that would be two.

One, you have a Price gap from election night in place right now goes below two twenty one. Maybe you want to neutralize the stock, but look, jp Morgan for to continue to outperform. Let's remember the thing that J.

P. Morgan was, was a defensive oriented play while we waited for the financial sector to actually perform. Now the financial sector is performing.

So I don't disagree with this call. I think there's other places you can turn to in the financial sector. Doesn't mean you have to sell G, P. Morgan, though. I'm going to stay with IT.

Yeah, you have goldman. I mean, I know joe is too, but you do as well. I mean, David's salomon telling artlessly y picker a short time ago, you know it's pretty optimistic, right, starting to see an unlocking of the capital markets, he said, market responding to the new administration being more progress, th guo deregulation and and like.

yeah look see you know it's a Better management company that management continued execute as they have, which is recognized the mistakes they made with retail and moving on from them. So that's risk of management. That's what you want in a bank in an investment bank.

And the pipeline for all these investment banks is tremendous and golden just happens to have a larger share. So I continue to like IT. And every time David speaks, men, you just have to have to take notice because he tells them as IT is no flaw if he says it's getting Better, it's getting Better.

Yeah netflix joe target raised to a street eye a day seven hundred books from nine twenty five that's coming from pivotal research.

Anos communities finally seeing what a lot of people have recognized that this company is clearly right now in the sweet pot. They've gotten passed a lot of the chAllenges with password sharing, the ad tier subscription and now they're able to focus on the future and live events we keep talking about. It's the future. It's not just sports. It's could be entertainment and it's ultimately going to be news.

Joe, thanks are coming up the battle of the investment advisers, what swab is doing to lure more clients to its platform. We will speak with jobs head of advisory services, john baily, from here at impact in separate csco. Next, we are back live at swab impact in safran, cisco.

This conference brings together thousands of registered investment advisors from across the country who are using the swap platform. Join me now as the company's head of advisory services, john bai. Welcome to ceive to twenty conference.

How it's grown. Obviously, you have forty five hundred ten now as wealth management continues to be a key area of growth for the company. Is that a record amount to of of net new assets? correct.

That's IT. That's right. Two hundred billion dollars at this year. We had a fifty one billion dollar third quarter. This industry is a powerhouse .

of growth for swap. IT is is also getting more competitive, I think in ways that we haven't seen. I mean, just yesterday, we have the Robin hood you know acquisition.

It's biggest today, they they're buying trade pmr. I mean, the upstarts, if you want to call them that are common for the incoming, you are one of the incoming. I mean, how do you view the landscape?

Well, we see a bull market for advice out there in the financial services space, and it's been a pleasure of serving advisers for over thirty five years here. h. ob.

And we know that to be a partner to these firms, you have to have both scale, a breath of capability as well as commitment. So we are forty five or portend five trillion dollars of assets for advisers. We've been added for thirty five years. We've been billion a platform to support the space. And there are having great success .

in the mark place. I've seen no estimates that the industry now is IT seven trillion. It's nine trillion whatever number that is you say is going to grow so exponentially large over the next ten years to how big it's been .

an amazing run that this independence space has been on IT to nine trillion dollar industry today, but there are still thirty five trillion dollars of assets sitting traditional advice model. So plenty of market opportunity. And our job is to help advisers go get that a market opportunity, helping them grow, compete.

And six tek about helping advisers. Guy, I think our viewers are wondering questions like, is artificial intelligence a disruptive force to the R I. A community or a tool?

It's definitely a tool. Sky, we see advisers today cautiously optimistic about how they can use artificial intelligence in their businesses. They are certainly working on some of the core competencies around automation and and data competencies, and we'll be leaning into artificial intelligence with us over the decade to comment about .

non equity assets we're watching. You know obviously crypto is been doing incredible since the election. Bitcoin, another record, hide the day. And how are you thinking about that um in the offerings that you have for your clients?

Yeah non traditionally, there's a place that advice have been expanding into for over a decade now. I started with alternative investments, and that's a big part of our platform. A years ago, I was a difference maker.

Today, it's business as usual offer, especially if you're gna serve the ultrahigh netware to ten million dollar plus client. We certainly are hearing and talking declines about crypto. Think about these advisors reforms.

They see the portfolio from the from the top view and so they think of cypher as a part of the allocation. We'll see if we get to spot trading sometime down the road. We certainly need support from regulators and lawyers .

kers to help us get there. So if the traditional portfolio, let's say, for the last fifty years was for argument six, sixty, forty, okay, what is the traditional portfolio of going to look like for the next fifty? As you think about crypto, you think about alternatives in all these other asset classes that people want a piece of got we work .

with fifteen thousand advisors nationwide and will be listening to them to determine what direction that allocation will go. And certainly, the addition of alternative sinson and crypto is as an additional asset class, will probably change that mix over time. And we'll stand up the capabilities .

to help them get there to enjoy impact. Thank you for sporting impact, right? It's good to be here.

It's john bi swap head of advisory services up next. We just mentioned another record high for bitcoin. Brain talkin' is standing by.

We're going to get her take on that. Of course, we'll get her view on in video few hours ahead of that print as well. Are my brain talking to? Does join us now, brain, it's good to see you. I'm glad we could make this work. I want to start your hand crypto u as we look at big point above ninety four thousand, what's your view here?

I mean, bitcoins of one hundred percent for the year. So continues to defy the next sayers. But really where I am seen where you see a lot of the the excitement speculative furber is like if you look like a microstrip gy, it's a fifteen percent today, six hundred and eighty percent for the year, just really quite incredible. And so I think that the post presidential election, post trump, I think the marked spin clear that there's going to a be more deregulation, there's gonna more animal spirits and you're seeing that getting Priced in, of course. Well, I had a .

time yeah pushed in. Almost ninety five thousand today are in video gotta hear from you. You are a long time holder of the stock. How are you are thinking about these earnings tonight?

So the market i'll take the market first. The options market is saying it's going to be upper down about eight and half percent to me. I think the prince is gonna be great.

I wouldn't be excited about any move up or down on the print. It's gonna on the call, and I really feel it's gonna all about blackwell, blackwell, blackwell. And if I listen to vertige call, which I did, they're increasing their guidance on data centers.

Microsoft is clearly saying demand far outstrips supply, and we want to hear that as well. And so think that we have the potential were actually going into next year. You know black well actually starts to reacclimatise think earnings for this. And so that's what you want to see if there if if we don't see that, you could see that plus eight point be mine as eight point six percent, but definite. Listen to the call in the q na.

And if we know it's it's a supply issue. It's not a demand issue, right? Nothing that I mean, he's already jennen ones are call the demand for these chips insane. So rarely know what the story is there. It's whether they can continue to supply these chips or whether you'll be able to supply these new chips at th Epace t hat w all s treet n eeds t hem t o, I guess, is the best way to put IT.

I think, you know, we'll see what the whispers numbers are on the growth of what they say. But I think that we are just still in these early days of spending, and I think it's still hard for us to collectively believe that one company is just dominating this space. And so I think everyone saying that when is gonna stop, when is is gonna stop is just like there's no data points out there that i've seen that says this is even close to even leveling off. And so I think that going into the print with video basically at all time highs, I think we have this opportunity to push for that and go to new hires because I just don't see demand waning and supply will also denly catch up, right? So if they can't meet supply, I think that's a positive for the name.

Yeah, we'll see almost one hundred forty five bucks print. thanks. Appreciate you giving us your perspective. We'll see as soon finals next.

Guys, we're going to stay out in some Francisco tomorrow from one market and visit with brad gardiner on the other side of invidia earnings talk, all things tech, her sort of the end of year checking, if you will, with the tech investor on what he sees in the year ahead. And we can't wait for that. By the way, closing bell today. I've still be here at impact with lisa Sanders will talk to swap s in coming CEO reverser, mac mathias, Jason snipe, Daisy aska looking ahead to invidia to Carry what's your final trade?

Final trade c next resources is an energy company specializing in natural gas. It's located marcel s field, penny sylvania, ohio, west Virginia. Regulations will be Better for them.

All right? Thank you. Device.

yeah, i'm with brain. The they say is be damned. Coins got one hundred written .

all over IT. Okay.

we're going to hold you to those words. Don't forget that. Show your nova.

What about you?

I like Carrie talking about natural gas. It's breaking out. E, Q, T is the way to play.

Thanks guys.

Also see on the bet you've been .

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