Market Mayhem On A Monday Morning
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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Guy Dommey. Guy, how are you this morning? I'm well. Very well, thank you. And you? I'm hot to go, buddy. It is Monday. I just buddied you. It's Monday morning. It's 930. If you're listening to this, I got a little smirk at a Guy Dommey first thing on the show.

on a very, very busy week. We're going to come in and we're going to talk about what was implied as far as volatility guy for the week because we have CPI Wednesday. We have PPI on Thursday. We have the consumer confidence on Friday. We still have some

earnings. We got lots of tape bombs coming out, but it's interesting on the open today, we have an S&P that's down 1.6% and we have a NASDAQ that's down a little more than 2%, already realizing if you had gone out on Friday afternoon and you just wanted to buy

volatility into next week with a VIX that I think was what, 24 or so. Here we are with a VIX near 27. You're already realizing a bunch of that move. We talked about it last Monday. When you start to see the volatility bands widen like this with a VIX that was still, you know, low 20s or something like that, that's not good. Usually it means more downside. Do you agree with that? I do. And, you know, we've been warning against

I guess, situations or circumstances like we find ourselves in now. The rallies seem like, okay, that's it. We're bouncing here. We've seen this before. But I would say, and maybe I'm off by a day or two, but since the 18th or 19th of February, something has changed in terms of

the way the market's trading and these rallies have been violent but they've also been somewhat short-lived and as we've said a number of times no volatility is sticking around here it's not a one or two day event now it's been probably over the course of a couple weeks or so and I think

You know, the market's not used to and market participants are not used to trading in this type of situation. And what I've said, and I think you agree with this, they better get used to it because I think it's going to be here for a while. Yeah, no doubt. You know, it's interesting. We talked about how the S&P was flirting with this 200 day moving average, an average that has not

been below in more than a year and a half. And we're right at a level here, 56, 80 or so in the cash where that was the top guy last July. And we had a precipitous sell-off into that August 5th low. We had a bit of a crescendo. I think at its lows, it was down nearly 10%. I mean, right now we're down almost 8% from those recent highs. I think the important part to me is that the S&P is still only down 3.5% in the year. The NASDAQ's down 6.5%.

or so and we're starting to see just this morning a lot of Wall Street strategists kind of ratcheting down their expectations for the year. I think coming into the year where we had an S&P below, I don't know, slightly below 6,000, we saw a lot of 6,600 targets. We saw a lot of strategists not lowering their S&P EPS expectations for the year. It was still 13%. Well, our main man, John Butters over there at FactSet,

He's been telling us over the last two months, we're starting to see strategists, analysts lower their earnings expectations for this year at a faster pace than they have over the last five and 10 year periods. You know, you mentioned that July. So we typed, I think we topped out around July 16th or so last year. It's called 5670 or so ish. Right. And then obviously, as you just said, we cascaded lower in

into August, that August 5th day, I think everybody remembers. By the way, I think you know this as well, that sort of coincided with a significant move lower in dollar-yen, yen strengthening. And oddly enough, Dan, we're seeing that right now as well. Dollar-yen now below 147 for the first time in a while. So, you know, I'll say this, past resistance becomes support. So we should find support at this level, I think, in the short term. We'll see how that plays out. But

Your point is well taken. And, you know, the fact that the market is seemingly just sort of cascading lower without a lot of, I don't think necessarily dramatic news or earnings news. I think that's something to watch. Now, clearly, the market is scared by some of the commentary we're hearing out of this administration, what have you.

But just as that common territory can scare to the downside, can equally scare to the upside. And we've seen that a couple of times. Yeah. And there was an article on CNBC. So talking about the headlines, the administration was saying Trump, an agent of chaos and confusion, economists warm, but a recession isn't in the cards yet. So we was talking yesterday about,

you know, about the economy. Hard to predict. You know, this is one area where I kind of agree with the administration guy. I'd love to get your take on this. You know, Treasury Secretary Besant has been out there talking about I think we covered it last week on the pod. Just kind of like the economy needs to go through this period of detox, just the sorts of things that the markets

and the economy have been addicted to over the last 15 years. These are something that you've been very outspoken, I guess, as long as I've known you going back to kind of 2009 and 2010. But we have never had an administration. We have never had a treasury secretary willing to say we might suffer some near term pain.

Yeah, yes. But, you know, I don't think they're saying that to be, you know, pragmatic or to sort of I think they're saying it because they probably see it and want to get ahead of it, quite frankly. But OK, I'll give you that. And I've said this so many times, you know, I can't count anymore. But, you know, people seem to think recession is a bad thing. And I understand that it's not pleasant to go through. But.

You know, the last I looked at the last economics book that I read, recession is a natural part of the business cycle. And for some reason, we think we sort of able to alchemy them out. So, yeah, they're admitting that we might go through a tough patch. That's fine. I don't think there's anything wrong with that.

But the reasons they're admitting it is the thing that I think has spooked the market, because maybe they see something that until recently nobody's willing to admit or willing to say. Yeah. And I guess the other point is, is that we did not have these constant flood of tariff and trade issues.

you know, headlines under the last administration. And we just didn't see the need to kind of ratchet up a trade war with our biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, um, and the EU. And I think that's the thing that a lot of strategists coming in this year, I think, and I was one of these folks that at least as a talking head was just kind of very out front saying, listen,

let's assume the base case scenarios, right? There's going to be a lot of rhetoric, but the rhetoric has gone on now for about six weeks. And it's one of the reasons when you said something was afoot on February 19th, you know, the economy, while it was weakening a bit because of the cumulative effects of inflation, which we've talked a lot about. I mean, one of the big reasons why Trump won was the dissatisfaction with the

pace of inflation and the trajectory of the economy, despite the fact that GDP was running near 3% and unemployment was about 4%. So I guess the point is, is that if things don't get better soon on the economic front, then we might find ourselves in a difficult situation where the administration's forced to do things that maybe they don't want to do. But you also make this point all the time.

The things that you can control in the economy and thus the markets, you know what I mean, are probably not the sort of things that are going to get the market and the economy going in the direction that you want. And if you want to play chicken with the U.S. economy and thus the global economy based on some policy that might just be a bargaining tool, that seems like a pretty difficult place to be, especially when you have a stock market that is attributed a great deal to the wealth effect in this country, when you have a stock market

housing market right you know these are all the sorts of things that maybe things do get out of control and you can't kind of fix you know i think you used this expression last week on one of the pods it's like when you try to turn a battleship or an air calf carrier you know what it means really quickly because you're reacting against some problem that you've caused that might be a really tough place to be yeah and i think that's exactly what they're trying to do and i think

Maybe going into this, a lot of people thought it would be easier than it's turning out to be. And the pitfalls have been there for quite some time. We have talked about some of the concerns seemingly for the last year and a half, and those concerns never went away. What went away basically was the fact that the market kept going up and it just sort of silenced a lot of those voices. But the

things that I've been concerned about, again, have only gotten worse. And when you see somebody like a Warren Buffett just continue to add to his cash position now north of $330 billion, that Buffett indicator that we talk about all the time, which probably went north of 210% or so, which is obviously levels that I don't think we've ever seen before.

it raises some concern. And you talk about sort of turning this aircraft carrier. You know, we can argue whether or not the aircraft carrier needed to be turned around. Personally, I think it did. I think we were headed down a wrong path. But to think there's not going to be anything broken along the way or things sort of getting knocked away in the wake of that aircraft carrier, I think is foolish. And I think the market is one of those things.

Yeah, and it's hard to talk. We just mentioned our trading partners, which are our allies. And then you have China, which, you know, we put an extra 10% tariff on. I think they're north of 20% right now. And you just think of, and we talked about this also. I mean, we are putting our foot on the neck of China at a time where, you know, their economy is really weak. There was an article.

In Reuters this morning, China's consumer price index in February missed expectations and fell at its sharpest pace in 13 months, while producer price deflation persisted as seasonal demand faded and households remained cautious about spending amid job and income worries. Now, there's been talk about added stimulus. They want to kind of target the consumer a little bit. But, you know, when you think about this tariff war being ratcheted up,

And you think about when we basically are putting tariffs on our goods going there, this makes the situation for their consumers almost more difficult. And then it leads us to some sort of geopolitical situation, possibly as it relates to Taiwan at a time where we are literally battling with our closest allies. When you think about what's going on with Europe.

how we might be siding more with Russia than we are with Ukraine when we are talking about destabilizing NATO to some degrees. This gives China opportunity, especially as we are kind of right in the middle of what's going on in Israel and Gaza. Thoughts there? Because this fading sort of alliance in Europe, I think, has multiple, multiple ramifications on multiple different levels.

Well, I think there's a reason why I just read earlier today that President Trump, I think, is going to China over the next month or so. So, you know, I think they're obviously aware of that as well. And I think what you're saying is it emboldens our adversaries. And I would agree with that as well. And if you're China sitting around and watching what's going on, I think, you know, their wants in terms of Taiwan have not gone away. And I think

We'll only see those things sort of ratcheted up. And, you know, it's just a global politics are playing their way into the stock market right now. And I'm personally, I'm surprised it's taken this long, but they're clearly tectonic shifts going on in terms of

relationships, allies, redistribution, all those different things. And I think the VIX at 26 or so was starting to figure that out. And that's why I think there's some concerns. And that's why I think you heard a lot of the weekend talk shows, some of the talk about, yeah, maybe there'll be

bit of a, you know, I don't know what terminology they use, but a bit of a difficult patch going forward. Yeah. And when you think about difficult patches, it brings me back 25 years to this week, Guy, when the dot-com bubble burst. Now, you and I were sitting on trading desks. We were probably very active or as active as we've ever been in the late 90s because it went from an

all-out mania where anybody you dealt with, whether you're on the sell side dealing with the buy side, you're the buy side dealing with the sell side. I mean, it was like all out just enthusiasm. There was some skepticism. Obviously, I told that story on the pod with Danny Moses last week where, you know, we were sitting on a trading desk where we were skeptics, but the volatility just made it. It was just like being a kid in the candy store if you were nimble enough to play that. But many of the strategists, many of the

analysts covering these spaces thought it was never going to end. And that first 5% lower, let's say a move like we just had since February 19th, no one believes that that's the top that we're going to go through a protracted bear market, or no one wants to believe that, right? And especially in these modern times where central bankers have been very accommodative to market volatility to the downside, right? And the biggest or the easiest way to think about that

was back in Q4 of 2018 when the S&P 500 dropped 20% and it was possibly growth fares. It was possibly based on, you know, higher interest rates at the time the Fed had been raising interest rates. But let's talk a little bit about the psychology, you know, 25 years on because a lot of folks want to make a very similar argument about this AI enthusiasm as they did to the

dot com. Now, there's probably a lot of differences. But when you think about that period, you think about what's going on, could down seven and a half percent turn into down 15, 20 percent pretty quickly. And then maybe the Fed doesn't have the tools that they've used in the times past when we've had corrections in the stock market to kind of, you know, buoy things a little bit. Yeah, but you're going to hear grumblings or rumblings around, you know, the Fed's got to be more active. I mean, that's coming to a theater near you. But, you know,

I've said this for a while. I don't think lower rates are the salve that's going to solve any of the potential market problems. As a matter of fact, I think it just makes some of the market problems worse. But, you know, there are clearly going to be cries for rates to be lowered. Rates are too high. I understand that. I don't agree with it. But your other point, I think, is well taken. Why can't we see a move of the magnitude you said? We've seen it before. And, you know, I think it's the...

the prolonged market rally is just sort of prolonging, to use the word again, the inevitable of what we probably should have seen. And if you, again, just let market forces work the way they're supposed to, you know, I think we'd be a lot better off. I mean, that's just me pontificating here. I think, you know, we try to control things that we have no control over. And again, you know, the market's going to do what it wants. And, you

It's funny, you know, in the first administration, again, this is not political. This is just factual. They talked about the stock market performance being a report card for how well they were doing. And quite frankly, they did pretty well in terms of the stock market. Now they're not looking at the stock market. You can't look at day to day performance.

permutations and moves. And to me, that should be concerning for people because they're clearly focused on the stock market, but I also think they clearly understand what we might be on the verge of. Yeah. Before we get to the concentration in tech,

Because again, I think that's something that most folks think is very obvious. One of the things that's leading to the downside, we just talked about a NASDAQ composite that's down nearly 8% right now with today's down 2% sort of move. We have an equal weight S&P that's basically unchanged on the year. And I think that's telling you a lot, right? So we know what's leading to the downside because we have all of the fateful eight down on the year.

except Meta right now, which is up a few percent. It's up like 5% or so in the year, but then you have things like Tesla down 35% round trip, the entire move since the election. Even a Broadcom today is down 3.5%. That's a company that kind of blew the doors off. One of very few semiconductors, which was able to beat and raise meaningfully. So let's talk about tech in a second. But the thing that you and I have been most focused on over the last week and a half have been the bank stocks.

and money center banks in particular. And this has come at a time where we've talked about risk asset volatility in almost everyone other than stocks, and now stocks are starting to catch up. But when you see JP Morgan on a day like today down 3%, you look at Bank of America that has had, I think it was down 10% last week alone, guy, down 2%. And then it's Morgan and Goldman are all down 3% today. So what are the bank weakness saying to you? And for

financials broadly, I think you and I brought this up. Look at on a day like today, Apollo is down 4%, KKR down 5%. These were some of the biggest beneficiaries of the market in the last few years. These stocks were out of control to the upside. All of them are down more than 30% or so from their recent highs. What is that saying about the health of just the deal market in general?

People got excited about the banks last summer. There are other people, by the way, that correctly got excited about the banks earlier in 2024. And then as it became clear that candidate Trump was going to win, obviously these banks started to rise in a pretty material way on the hope of, again, more deals, more M&A, deregulation, a favorable environment, uh,

optimism about both businesses and the consumer and all those things. And I think that was sort of the tailwind for the banks. I think the market is coming to the realization that, oh, wait a second, you know, deregulation, we probably priced it in and maybe it's not as important as we thought. And then B, I think in terms of M&A, you know,

Maybe we're not going to have the robust M&A environment. But I think the most important thing is, Dan, banks are not immune or impervious to a slowdown. As a matter of fact, banks are some of the most cyclical industries that are out there. And I think people have forgotten that as well. So if there is, in fact, a downturn in the economy or things that are slowing down,

Banks don't win to that, regardless of where the yield curve is, regardless of where interest rates are. A slowdown is not supportive of banks, especially some of these banks trading at price to book or price to tangible book that they're trading at. Yeah. And, you know, we started with banks because I'd throw it right there.

in one of the Trump trades, right? So the other one that I just think on the surface was a Tesla and a large part due to Elon Musk's proximity to the president that has roundtipped the entire move. On November 5th on election day, Tesla closed at 251 and change. Right now it's trading at 246 and change.

Bitcoin, I think on November 5th, was trading around 70,000. It traded 80,000 last night. It's trading 82,000 right now. So when I look at those, it's just a proxy for some of the Trump trades. They are not doing well. The stock market is obviously one of the biggest ones. And we started the show by talking about how they don't care supposedly about the stock market and, you know, that while they're not predicting a recession, but recessionary environment.

would kind of suggest that the stock market might go into a major correction. So thoughts here on the Trump trades fading? Well,

You know, if you look at it through the lens of Tesla, it's clearly faded. You know, if you look at it through the lens of the energy sector, it's clearly fading. You know, drill, baby, drill is a great mantra, but, you know, it might not be supportive of the underlying commodity. And therefore, the stocks that comprise the energy sector are going to be affected as well.

Banks, clearly, we just talked about. There's some other individual names that I'm sure people got excited about on the back, specifically crypto stuff, which we'll talk about, that are obviously fading. So the bloom is off the rose. And I think, you know, historically, honeymoon periods last longer. I think we're in a different paradigm now. And people, you know, they really want instant gratification. And two months into this administration, and obviously a lot can change, you

They're not happy in terms of the stock market with the things they're seeing and hearing.

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Let's hit tech here because one of the things that was meant to be a Trump trade and one of the reasons why I think we saw all of the major tech CEOs kind of line up to donate to the inauguration changed a lot of policies like DEI. They were right there on the dais at the inauguration. We saw this out of Google last week.

that they were pressuring the DOJ to drop one of the major suits right and this is probably one of the things listen these guys probably all had some gripes as it relates to what the FTC and the DOJ had been doing to them or threatening them over the last

five years or so, but I think it's important to remember that a lot of these actions started under Trump 1.0. He loved the fact that he got them to bend to their will, but these stocks have led to the downside again. So when you think about just the downward volatility, as I'm looking at this

Today, guys, we are 25 minutes into the opening. Apple's down 4%, Nvidia's down 2.5%, Microsoft's down 2.25%, Amazon too, Google nearly four, Meta down 3.5%, Tesla down 7% on the day. Now you and I feel like that has a lot to do with fundamentals, but to me, optically, it has a lot to do with the fact that now they're focused on fundamentals again. Every single person who bought it since the election is down on the trade.

Yeah. I mean, that's one way to look at it. I'm sure there are a lot of those people. I think quite honestly, I mean, over the last few years, it's been a tough slog if you've owned this stock because obviously we saw a huge move to the upside, but I can almost guarantee you, you know, most market participants did not take profit thinking this thing was going to continue to accelerate. And here we are. I mean, if you've watched Fast Money, if you listen to Market Call,

you know we've been talking about 240 level for quite some time and as we're sitting here right now as you mentioned i mean we have a stock trading 243 which as i like to say is close enough for government work so when you have something that was basically 488 and you get down to 243 i mean i'm not smart but i can do that math this is a stock that's now down by 50 over the last couple months so you know that's a difficult environment to be um profitable in if you've been trying to

buy and hold a name like this. Yeah, and going back to that whole dot-com anniversary here, this is a good example of a stock that just kind of, you know, I think Reddit went public somewhere. It was about a year ago at $34, guy. It was trading just about a month ago at the all-time highs.

of $230. It has been cut in half from its high on February 10th. So when you think about that sort of price action, we've talked about Palantir. And I think when we look back, let's just say this goes into a protracted bear market. Let's just say very similar to .com, there was just froth that just should not have existed in this market. The level of enthusiasm by investors, not only

overshot to the upside but has the potential to overshoot to the downside if you look at a palantir down six and a half percent the high here on the 19th which was the dead ass high of the market was 125 dollars here we are now at 80 that sort of unwinding of these trades could take a long time and it could take the nasdaq much lower you can hear the word panic a lot over the next couple days is my sense you know panic selling and you know they're

panicking out of these individual names, which may or may not be true. I don't really have a view on that. I don't typically use words like that unless I actually think it's happening. But what's fascinating to me, and it always has been, when you see moves of this magnitude to the upside, nobody ever talks about panic. It's fundamentals and how well the market is behaving and all those different things. What works to the upside works to the downside as well. And I think for too long, people have sort of

lulled themselves into this sense of security. The market, if it does go down, it's only a one or two day event. And at least for the last month or so, we're learning that it can last a little bit longer than that. Now, there will be levels to sort of trade around. And I think we sort of talked about one in the S&P 500. We mentioned sort of 240 in terms of Tesla. But there are other things going on right now. There is an unwind. And my concern has always been

Passive investing is great when things seemingly go up every day, but when passive becomes active and people start making decisions based on whatever it is, redemptions, forced selling, margin calls, any of those things,

it be when it's active, it's never active on the way up, Dan. And I think, again, we're seeing glimpses of that now. Yeah. And, you know, we bring up Reddit, we bring up Palantir, we talk about the faithful aid. There's a whole host of names in the software space that just have not acted very well for a long time. But I think you and I are both focused on the stuff that's more cyclical, like you just mentioned, banks, energy, that sort of stuff that's more interest rate sensitive, small caps is a name. We don't even really have to get into that. But,

That's an area that is very sensitive to rates in the economy and the like. Before we get to the economic data and we close it out there, Guy, Adobe reports this week, this is a stock that's been very volatile on earnings over the last four quarters. It's probably moved about 12.5% or so. The implied move is maybe...

eight or nine percent what's interesting to me in the software space there's been a bunch of disappointments a lot of folks thought the next leg of the software trade or of the ai trade was going to be in software as you saw co-pilots and agents deployed just this morning we wake up service now is making a three billion dollar acquisition of a private company moveworks um that is a

basically a plugin. It's a chat bot. It's an agent, right, that they want to deploy across their products and services. So we might continue to see a lot of tuck-ins like that. Adobe is probably going to be an acquirer of companies. Stock's down 35% from its summer highs of 2024. This is one that

never got on its horse as it relates to generative AI, because a lot of folks think that this is a name that's going to be disruptive. I think this is a really important earnings report, both for what they have to say about they're going to go hard into generative AI. They're going to try to tell a story. And if investors aren't buying it, that will say something about the psychology of investors as it relates to generative AI.

I mean, it's interesting you bring up Adobe. It's probably close to a $200 billion company. By the way, this was a $700 stock-ish in the fall of 2021. And since then, at $443, I mean, you can see it has not done well in terms of what the broader market has done and what the NASDAQ specifically has done.

But in terms of levels, I mean, you know, you want to play the game. $440-ish or so was the low we traded down to in March of 2021 before we had this meteoric rise. If you go back to the summer of 2022, having sold off, this is where we sort of topped out at in August of 2022. And then you just go back recently, Dan, you'll see that we basically just traded down to about $440 or so there.

in May-ish of last year. So a huge level of support without question. Understand that we violated it in January. So

We're at huge support levels, huge technical levels for so many of these stocks. Adobe is one of them. I think you're right to bring up the importance of it. But I'll say this as well. I mean, this is a stock that's been mired now for the last almost three and a half years, if not longer than that. Yeah. And the other thing we got to hit real quickly is the consumer. And, you know, you and I were talking about Walmart two weeks ago into the print. We thought it was a very important product.

you know name for two reasons one what they're going to have to say about a consumer and we know that they've been benefiting from this kind of higher inflationary period you know that stock sold off 16 percent from those recent highs all-time highs a couple weeks ago costco reported last week and since that report it's barely seen an uptick there was a miss um i think on revenues and the guidance was a bit squishy and now that stock is

is down more than 10% in a straight line over a couple of trading days. What did you take away really quickly? What the retailers had to say about the consumer? Because I don't think there was any that had anything particularly good to say. I think both of them were trying to be cautiously optimistic about a consumer that might be facing some headwinds right now because of inflation.

But what was your take? Yeah, that's one of my least favorite terms in Arizona laundry list, cautiously optimistic being one of them. But you're right. I mean, they used it and people continue. I don't really understand what that means. It's just sort of a clever way of getting around something. This I will tell you, though, in terms of a move. I mean, this is one of the biggest moves we've seen in Costco in quite some time now. In December, we saw the stock go from about 990 or so. I think we traded down to maybe 900 at the end of the month. But in terms of just

speed with which we've gone lower. We haven't seen a move like this in Costco in quite some time. What does it say about the consumer? Well,

It says what I've been saying all along. I mean, the higher end is trading down to the Costco's and the Walmart's. The middle to the lower end are trading down, but they're not trading down to the dollar stores. And you have to wonder really what's going on with the consumer. If I hear one more person talk about the health of the consumer, I think I'm going to scream. And again, I think a lot of people conflate or confuse the consumers want to spend or they're spending with whether or not they should be spending. And it's pretty complicated.

clear to me that they shouldn't be. Now, the pushback will be, wait a second, Guy. The unemployment rate is 4.1%. People have jobs. Yeah, people have jobs, but they're not combating inflation with their earnings. They're combating inflation with credit. And I think you're seeing it in the banks, and clearly you're seeing it in some of these retailers. Yeah. Costco, really quickly, Guy, you mentioned that $900 level. It was also the level it broke out at essentially 9, 10 or so after the election. And

It went as high as 1078. That was just about a month ago. That 200-day moving average is 911. That low from January was 900. There's probably a level, as you would say, that you could trade against on the upside if we were to kind of get back towards there. All right, last thing. CPI Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and consumer sentiment on Friday. We've had volatility around CPI over the last few months or so. Do you expect those numbers to be market-moving?

Yeah, I do, because I think people are going to look at CPI and PPI as hopefully relief. You know, if we get sort of a cool CPI and or PPI, I think people will sort of then say, well, wait a second. With the slowdown in the economy, with the way the stock market is trading, now we're seeing softness in CPI and PPI. The Fed has to come to the rescue. So, yeah.

I think if you do get soft numbers, that's exactly what's going to happen given the levels and given where volatility is. The flip side of the coin is, and this is not the good side of the coin, if those numbers come in hot, then obviously we have a bit of a problem. Then the Fed is sort of stuck. So you better hope we come in softer than expected if you want to sort of get a relief rally because anything on the hot side of things, especially for CPI, could further derail this market.

Yeah, no doubt. All right, a little housekeeping really quickly. Mark Mahaney of Evercore is going to be on the pod. It's going to drop tomorrow morning. Mark wrote a book called Nothing But Net a few years ago. We had him on the pod back then. It was basically his lessons of covering the Internet space for nearly 30 years. I knew Mark all the way back when, when he was at Morgan Stanley working with famed Internet analyst Mark,

Mary Meeker, we used to talk probably a few days a week. And so we're going to get his take on the similarities and the differences between the implosion of the dot com. So that drops tomorrow morning. And also, Guy, a few weeks ago, I guess it was two weeks ago now, we had Fast Money Live. We did the show from the Nasdaq. We had an audience of 125 people. We sold tickets for it. It was amazing. It was a cocktail thing. It was a behind the look event.

at the Fast Money, how it's made, and we did a Q&A afterwards and stuff. It was a great day. They're doing another one, June 5th at the NASDAQ. Where can folks go? Well, I'll just tell you, because you don't know where. It's cnbc.com, I think, slash Fast Money, slash events or something. Just Google it. We just launched, I guess, the second event late last week or so. There's still tickets available. So if you want to come and meet Guy and Tommy on the set of Fast Money, go ahead.

Go check that out because we're really excited. That was a lot of fun. Wasn't a lot of fun. It was great. People got there around 4 o'clock. They got to meet Sandy Canold, our senior executive producer, obviously Melissa Lee. The four of us, the five of us came in, chatted with the audience, watched the show live. We came in and out for some Q&A. We did a formal Q&A after the show. Then we had a cocktail hour for about an hour, hour and 15 minutes, and

And we were able to sort of meet everybody. And it's, you know, hopefully people enjoyed it as much as I did because it was really neat and fun to meet people, people from 30 different states as far away as Alaska and Hawaii, three different countries, including obviously the United States, Canada and Ireland.

It was a really a lot of fun. Yeah, it was great. So go check that out. If you want to get tickets, you want to come on June 5th. You know, Guy and I obviously have no stake in it other than we are on the program. We're just kind of helping them make the show aware and we know how much demand there was. There was a huge waiting list. So those tickets are going to go kind of fast. I mean, the last thing, Guy, you said you don't like to use the term panic. When we think about August 5th of last year, that turned into a panic.

And there's no doubt about it. And we had a quick intraday reversal. This market was down about 10%. We had a VIX north of 30. I mean, that's kind of how I see at least a near-term bottom put in something similar. And again, history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. And that's something, if you and I go back to the sort of reversals that we've seen of 10% declines in the S&P 500, at least putting an intermediate term kind of bottom in, all of those ingredients have been something that's gone on and culminated

in one day's action. Yeah, I agree. I agree 100%. I mean, it was panic. I mean, if you don't believe me, you can just look at what the VIX did that day. I mean, it traded north of 60. Now, obviously, we haven't seen anything like that probably since COVID. And I'm not sure we're going to see something like that again, although...

you know, I'm not so sure that given what's going on globally in terms of some of these currencies and moves and what have you, we won't. So, you know, if I'm watching things, Dan, I continue to watch dollar yen. You mentioned the VIX, you know, watch bond yields, falling bond yields. Are they good? Are they bad? What's really going on here? And obviously CPI and PPI this week, I think are

Yeah, I would just say let's look for the banks to firm up if you're also looking for a bit of a bottom. You know, the volatility on the upside is going to be in the fateful eight because it's sooner or later people just going to rip those sorts of things. So those are the things I am focused on. All right, Guy, Dami, you and I, we did a fat. Well, I don't know if we call it a hot 30. It's a little more than that. But you and I are going to be on the market call all week. Our new time, 11.

We have Carter Braxton Worth on Monday. Our friend Liz is going to be out for a period of time. We're going to miss Liz, but that's it. Check us out every day on the Risk Reversal Pod and then Market Call Monday through Thursday, 11 a.m. We'll see you all soon.