Let The Good Times Roll with Brian Belski
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Visit eye connections that I O A warm welcome to the other tape podcast. Guy, I am always joined by dan and dan, how are you? Dani moses.

how are you? Hi, guy could see you.

Well, IT is good to see you try to have some enthusiasm here, by the way. On the flip side, after the break down and a great conversation with brian belsen, y. Brian, of course, the chief investment strategist, head of investment strategy group global markets B, M, O, capital markets. That's a mouthful there.

Good thinking like any cfs bfp. Yeah, but he's brians always fun.

He's always colorful. And I, by the way, we had him in march and we had a conversation with them. He was very bullish back then.

One of being very right, we will discuss my freshman year of high school, danny, was nineteen seventy eight, if you can believe that. And in the summer of one thousand nine hundred and seventy eight, one of the great debut albums came out. Of course, that would be the cars album, the cars, and one of the hit songs on that album.

And there were many. But let the good times roll. And that is what what we're seeing right now in the market is we're sitting here on this thursday, we have an S P five hundred approaching six thousand, which by the way, a lot of strategies, pretty six thousand Price target by the end of the year. I didn't think in my wilding's streams we'd get here, danny moses, but here we are. So baby, let the good times roll.

Yes, the good times appeared to be rolling here, guy with, uh, I think because trump decidedly there's no lawsuits pending and then the senate is republican potential looks like the houses. So people feel like there's an obvious man date that is going to be able to go out and achieve whatever.

So I know that we've the banks benefit that certainly one's exposed M A N M N A targeting companies are Better finding out there anyone associated with the consumer financial protective or was under the watch of them is obviously ripping because people feel like that will be gone. There's a lot to digest here and all the obvious winners that we saw so forth. And I never going to talk about gold as well, guy, which I know kind of sold off here on that news, right?

So I think it's buying opportunity. And the only thing obviously was the today and a big clip I saw there was nothing too exciting on IT was the best pal of if trump res, where you live. And he said that i'm not leaving. That was a little bit leanto deco there, obviously. So wolf of wall street, we got go on there.

So we don't guy headed into, let us say, the election. I think all of us were position. We've been asked the question and fast money a bunch, you know, heading into twenty twenty five as far as banks, dogs, what do you prefer? And for all intense of purposes, I think we're all gold in a Morgan.

You look at the backlog of the IPO, you look at the potential for ema no matter what like, no matter who won, you know, we thought that there's a good chance that lean a kind under both potential administrations was going to be out. They really put their foot on the neck of mega cap tech for the last couple of years, which I think we can all agree with. A V, C the other day who are you know out the valley and he just said that he lost so much money for people.

You don't mean when you think about IT. So I get all that. But dani, let me ask you is when you think about just a move that we saw in banks, you know, it's really hard to chase if you love that theme about capital markets, know opening you more standing goal sex or R D at all time high.

And you saw the move that we had on wednesday after the election just a parablist, straight up ten percent or so. I look at jp Morgan as a little bit of both a money center, but also think that has been getting stronger and stronger over the last decade or so. You know that was up nearly twelve percent on wednesday is down for nine percent today. So I just wonder if some of these gaps are meant to be filled because I was a little too ephod in the banks. Yeah, I think that again.

because the house may go republic lin, from an oversight perspective, obviously, that gives the banks a lot more anyway, bozzle three, which is already been rumored, I was seen, should be Priced in that these restrictions would be kind of pulled back on the banks. Theyd be fine. And again, these are utility stocks are trading really at a premium to point.

But IT is indeed a certainly a positive. No one's going to short these socks right now then point or pie people that were still underweight them. So I am not saying that they're going to go up much farther than here, but I don't know if I would be a seller here of these names.

Listen, the markets up, rates are stable. Quote, I say that roads right now. And so I think to say place to me, but you want to get a good point, I think you need to separate the wall street banks from the regional banks.

And the regional banks are up on potential ma, right? So we've seen a list of potential F, T, I see chairs. We ve seen a list of potential next federal reserve chairman exit or so. A lot remains of V, C, M. But I just think IT was kind of shoot for access questions later.

I talked about valuation, probably wait too often. But since we're talking about the banks on mention IT now, J. P. Morgan reported their third quarter down on october eleven.

The stocker then closed that day around two hundred and twelve dollars is for context, they said tangible book that day was ninety six and a half hours. So when J. P.

Morgan at current levels are when IT traded up yesterday to an all time high, yesterday being wednesday, I mean, you have a stock. It's now trading and i'm rounding up at ted two and a half times tangible book. For context, these are levels that we last saw a financial crisis.

Now not to suggest that can go higher, but you have to sort of understand in terms of that metric specifically, this is a bank as great as IT is that right before very eyes has gone n itself pretty expensive. And I only mention that because it's important one and bared actually. I think yesterday downgraded the stock with a two hundred hour Price target on IT, which is interesting, something you don't often see. So you know these banks about great runs, I think brian will talk about more room to the upside. I don't want to sort to get ahead of myself, but you know through certain lenses evaluations, a lot of these banks have gotten pretty expense.

And then I mean, that's a really great point. I love how guide profit by saying maybe I spend too much time thinking about valuation, but there are times that IT makes sense. You J P.

Morgan, I M just looking at their earnings over the last you know, five years, six years or something going back to twenty and nineteen, there's been two years of down earnings, right, and then expected next year to be a peak earnings, but then again in twenty twenty five, down seven percent or so. So when you see that sort of volatility in earnings growth, IT should trade at a multiple that is not peak right from tense. Does that makes some sense to you? Yeah should trade a multiple .

of book in a Normal ari environment. If people think they're going to overrun on their act with, they'll give you a little bit more juice. But again, I think of some regulation and two names that we should talk about our company and discover, I will see that measure now appears to be all but good to go through. And that becomes a very powerful company when you scale back to C, F, P, B and regulations, potential that actually protect consumers.

So for for those people out there who are celebrating, obviously the really wealthy don't have to worry, but the people that are happy about this act coming election, that have credit card bills and and are very baLances and so forth, you're in for a rude awakening when you start rooting for the C, F, B, T B dismantle because love with the stocks that really okay. You had syncing Y S, why a vivo credit card under the scrutiny, the C F V V with late fees, they were trying to mitigate these late this, guess what came on bread financial, B, F, H, C, A, C, C, sub prime auto company, right there was under the preview of the C, P. So when you start to see, see those things rally, you should scare the sub prime consumer. So yes, on the high end, on the people that are wealthy, they are excited about this good for you. But if people on the low and they're excited about IT things, you're going to get incremental worse than I do .

believe in the financials. You know, then a few minutes you mention gold. And obviously, on August fifth, we saw a huge dowdle ft and gold on the back of everything else.

I was sort of a off day wednesday of this week, we saw with equal k, it's going crazy. We saw a pretty significant move to the downside in gold at one point. I think that was down eighty dollars or so today.

Thursday, we've recouped about half of that. I bring that up because much like the equity market, the south and gold have been shadowers and sholom and seemingly they find buyers pretty quickly. I will continue to say the.

The gold market is a harbor of something. I'm not exactly sure what. But with that said, regardless of what is a harbinger of, there's no denying that it's working right now for sure.

And it's definitely my opinion to buy because I think your politics, you're you get a little bit worse. Listen, I was a new york reaction. I watch you guys yesterday on mark hole, and you nail IT with liz.

When the dollar has a move like that and jump up, gold will get hit and you gotta pick a bite point. I know dan had mention potential. Maybe you could even try a little bit lower, which I disagree with.

I was seen the door to keep strengthened. Dollars down today goes up. People flew into crypto, in my opinion, in bitcoin, because they see that as a win, win for the trump Victory.

And plus it's bad against the machine. So the big yes buyer of goals, still nothing will change. If anything, I think after this election and even more confident that goals going .

to be a great place. You know, it's interesting is I understand you, a president elect trump will talk about the santin of the dollar stuff, but he's the first president in my lifetime during his first administration that actually would publicly say that the dollar was too strong.

Because I think he intuitive ly stands the problem that a strong doll creates, which is really counterweight I get but i'm not convinced that he you know will not be more of a weak dollar policy president. He's talked about that. And quite Frankly, given what up against, he's right to look at IT that .

way yeah and again, isn't that commentate with the pressure he might put on power and whoever follows him to kind of continue to lower interest rates, right? So you'd have a dollar that's weakening there too, but isn't that just the case for higher inflation, right? And so like that's the thing.

You know if some people are questioning th Epace o f g rowth, right, we had three percent of thinking. Q two, two point eight percent. So a minor step down in in q three. If we have a scenario where, let's say, china never really comes back online in a meaningful way despite all of the stimulus that they're been putting out over the last few months or so, we could find ourselves in that stack relationing environment that we've been talking about a bit for, I almost feel like, for a couple years or so.

So I think the biggest risk to the economy right now, the biggest risk to kind of risk assets in general, is that reflation in inflation and having some of the stuff become somewhat embedded. And you know, one of the first things that trumpet administration wants to do is mass deportation, right? So if we see upward wage, you know, pressure and like that's going to a become embedded in the economy to some degree. So you and I and daney, we see no shortages of potential headwinds to the economy. But right now, risk asset .

standing are not saying that at this podcast after the twenty twenty election, right before biden, I I took control and IT was a split congress. So so you didn't have any one party controlling all three, right? So that was what I was.

But we felt there were more guard rules that was much easier to quantify things that how could be others rules and regulations. And to your point, I feel like for the last few days and listen, I was obvious ly Priced into a degree that he would win. But again, I reiterate Price then and I think the house in the center of group up link and so now then everything's just ripped apart and now it's like almost like a canvas here.

How is onna play out? IT will be bumpy. I don't want to sell or short into this really, but you just on valuation.

But listen, the things you just mention, policies in the terrace, those are distinct lation, ary period. You can convince me otherwise. That is up cutting taxes.

Well, you're going to grow your deficit if people continue to want to ignore that deficit. I just watching gn lock on. I thought he had just did a great interview scotcher just now before we came on this.

He said that exactly right. So again, at some point, we're onna have to pay for this. But I think people are just focusing on being very short sider right now.

We'll do with the rest latter. Well, the bond market is focused on IT because since the middle of september, when the fed cut the first time fifty basis points, obviously today, thursday and a didn't twenty five, we've seen ten yards go from either side of three point six percent. Till yesterday, wednesday, we ve got up to almost four and a half percent.

And ten years, we've pulled back a little bit. So the bond market is telling a story, dad, I think it's time, a story. Everything you just talked about, the optimists will say it's tong a story about this reacclimatise the economy. Where do you come down on this .

or power was just quoted or you can turn about ten year yields goes well? No, because nowhere near where they were a year ago. Well, I don't know power watches the bond market, but we could be at five percent rather quickly in in a few days.

And so I do think like we've been talking about, I think for a wild economy, strengthen and I see leads itself to a liar ten year year potentially that inflation is coming down, but it's still kind of there. And then to your point where where's the term premium kick in, people's concern about the credit quality of the U. S.

I don't think anywhere near that yet. That would be obviously lights out. So I think part of the reason the markets following through today on the rally is one we got through and two, ten year yields came down today.

So it's kind of a Green sign go for us, don't be concern, are going to control them. So again, I I can't predict where they're na go. I just hope if they do go up, they go up for the right reasons, meaning growth, and not the wrong reasons.

meaning are dead. You know it's again, again, I know you spend a lot of time about the like investor psychology, right, and how IT works into different market cycles. And you know we just talked about a lot of things that a lot of investors don't seem to care about, right, if you put them all together.

And you know, one of the things that i've thought about a lot this week in general is just let's talk about the election for a second. You know, everybody was wrong. You know this reminds a lot like two thousand and sixteen.

The poundings were wrong. The political class were wrong. I mean, that seems like a lot of investors were maybe pricing a bit Better. This prediction markets, which we were saying feel like .

they were I was going to say the betting market seemingly got IT. Now whether they were spot or not will never gonna, but those were the things .

that actually got a right, right. So I guess my point is, is like, here we are. I don't even think the trump campaign thought I was going to go this way.

Not a red wave, you don't mean. And maybe they felt like they were limping into the end of this campaign. And the reason I bring this up is because it's not too different with markets.

The way the markets were signal yesterday is that this is a one way train forward, right? And so we know that is not from a to b in a straight line. And so that's the one thing that worries me a little bit.

I'm just going to bring up these names like a jp moran. Again, we just talked about that was up twelve percent. It's giving back a third of that swab is another name that was up, you know, whole hack a lot.

It's ready, started to fill in that map a little bit. So these are the things that i'm going to keep my eyes on. There is also this notion that maybe the regulators, the F T C, the D O J, or to take their foot off the neck of mega cap tech. There has already been some conversation about how IT might not push for a break up of google. This was a thought that was becoming very prevalent as we got more towards the remedy phase of some of these cases in in the light. So to me, I just feel like these things have the ability to change, not on a dime, but as risk assets get further and further away from the norm, get further and further away, I just think that it's important to remember how these things can go the other way to Denny.

You know, you do have six weeks left here before the end of the year, really nine weeks before even trump takes the rains, right? So there is a time for you so you're write if things you could see a pullback potentially happening. But I think that within those sectors of people believe were the biggest benefit ery ies, those talks will probably be bought on weakness.

We're going to have a level here in a few weeks. Two, three weeks were Normally other than something happening out of left field. Nothing really bad. It's happened a couple times less decade in december, but I don't see that really. So I think we're a kind of emotion.

I don't see huge bubble. yeah. So think about divide a government again. IT seems like what was that like every six months a year we are talking about government shut down. This is what happens though.

And you have the house and you have the senate and you know you you're leading up to one of these situations where you know you don't have a shut down, you actually don't get need to get concessions from the other side. That was always the pushed in the poll. And again, like I don't know about you guys, I can't remember the last time we've seen an administration that has such strong views.

They've actually been able to apply a lot of those views to a prior administration, right? And now there's really no checks and baLances on that. So I do find IT very interesting and and maybe things could go a lot longer than we think they will, at least on the psychology that we are in pro growth environment.

But I think, guy, the things that you are saying about deficit spending, lower taxes, hired inflationary pressures from reassuring. That's what the trade war is all about, all inflationary. And at some point, the chickens have to come home to before .

we get out of here, danny, because you have a good news for this, these types of things. You know, i'm a big believer where there's smoke, there's fire, and you start to connect dots a little bit. And I mention that through, again, the lens of this super micro computer.

We talked about IT. It's an object disaster. I'm not advocating buying IT, selling IT, none of those things. But i'm asking you if their dots to be connected here in terms of what IT means potentially for the AI trade given the size of this company, its peak in march, when is out of the. P five hundred and given to some of the customer base that IT has in its customers of we joked on .

monday with then on on the tape on monday that I said, if you're going to put out bad news, make IT tuesday night after the election, which is what they did. And just to be clear, this wasn't an official earning by S M. C.

I because they don't have any earnings, because they don't have an auditor. So to your point, I think it's been a bad way for the last several weeks to express the theme. And A I I think he continues to be that way, I think is they do nothing.

Is that a canny an the coal mine? I think it's company if they've been over ordering or you know doing something with their accounting, I still believe and I guess the takea way would be their orders will never come to vocation because they won't a company anymore. But again, I think there's n up demand, I think, to offset that potentially.

So i'm not gonna a huge breakthrough, but again, it's a wake up call to if you want to express the theme with an A I you know I think you Better be careful on the gods. You know IT IT actually adds more creators to in video trading, potentially even more of a premium of people to decide to come out VC. I and slow expressed that trades.

So I know we're going to get that our next big event is video earnings. Obvious ly coming or so i'll see what happens here. But IT continues again.

Free train city. I I can make the exact opposite argument about like its relation to in video, they're the third largest customer of invidia. And if there was a lot of goods is going on here, know they've lost two auditors in the last year or so.

And this is a company that was started out the year, I think, in the small cap index, went into the S M. P. At the very near highs.

And now you see what's happened. You'll get the start of this is when they reported earnings, they were expected to seventeen percent margins, gross margins. And I came in at eleven percent.

That was half of what dellis had. And dell actually hasn't moved up that much as this thing has melt IT down of late. And so you can make the argument that maybe a bunch of in videos sales are not going to be recognized going forward.

And this is a company where ford estimates have not come down at S. M. C. I at some point. They're gonna to cut their forecasts in a meaningful.

And then the neck on effect is what does that mean for NVIDIA? And what does that mean for pricing? Because if you lose a big customer like that, 我 forward your pricing power， you know, declined dramatically.

I bring IT up only for the obvious reasons, and then for the following reason, because one could logically think the addition of S M C I into the S M P five hundred some degree of rigor from the people that actually make the decisions. As IT turns out, that rig was clearly not there, given the things you just said. And then magnify that, add across a couple different things and understand that sometimes people just get lazy. So as much as we like to believe these stories, as much like to believe the Elizabeth stories, the same bank man fried stories, sometimes the rigor behind IT is not there at all, and you wind up with situations like this. So I just urge people not to believe everything they see and read sometimes with this guy.

I would add to that. And again, i'm not discounting IT at all. I don't i'm just saying if if videos is truth about the demand, which I can even fill in the chips, all i'm saying is they would have to other places.

But you mention obviously such the auditor, golden sex and bank amErica were bankers for the debt deal and the equity deal that they did in the sprint. And so that was all done. Obviously, you want to feel good that obviously underwriters are looking as well. So hopefully, it's not a complete and other thud that was on obviously the way they're doing accounting yourself, the singers potential issue. I'm just trying to kind of separate from the macro a that is the A I trade that still seems to have legs here.

That's all. I think it's fair. We would not be doing our job if we didn't bring that up because, god forbid, three, four, six months from now, this thing were unravel based on what we're talking about and we didn't bring that up.

I feel pretty bad. And yeah you know what's interesting also, I love the point that you I haven't seen anybody make that point about the rigor of the folks that add some of these stocks to the S M. P.

Five hundred. And you know, is IT brings me to test for one second. I'm not gonna labored this by any means. I was waiting for IT.

Yeah, but before this rally over the last couple of days, tesla was trading at the exact level IT was in december of twenty twenty when I went into the S. M. P.

Five hundred. And my point is like, of course, I had to go into the S. M. P. Five hundred and had this massive rally from under anything that was like forty box to when I went in at like two hundred and change or something like that. But IT seems like the S M P dozes all of the time. You have a massive period of performance in an you put IT in the index and then IT just becomes a drag for years.

Trumps to have all these criminal cases turned out. Now you would assume that musk has all the agency investigations potentially thrown out. So he made a big gambling on this. Obviously, IT paid off in near term.

I will just tell people whether you truly want to go look at the track record of musk tesla, the way that he treats employees, the way that he treats the regulators. Do you really want to extract that and bring IT into the government? right? And and so I don't know about you a little nervous about fsd being approved now in the U.

S. For changes, not because I would not want to do IT because other people will. They could be unsafe so people should have their intense up a little bit here.

Here again, i'm not in the stock anymore and I said it's started trading off fundamentals. It's very difficult and certainly treating as far ways that ever has with fundamentals. I'll come back to that story at some point then, but it's certainly not training anywhere near reality.

And the important part here is the stock has gone from you two fifty to basically three hundred dollars in two trading days. You can do the math as IT relates to market cap s near trillion dollars know. The one thing I would say about this is that if you take a lot of the scrutiny, a full self driving, right, and then you can get closer to autonomy.

One of the biggest issues, I think, of that autonomy event was that people just couldn't see when that was going to happen all the sudden. Now you you get a lot more clarity about how quickly they could do IT. My comment on that day and fast money when I came out was like, listen, he's never hit any of these targets.

And a lot of the reason for that was because of the regulatory scrutiny about how he was just kind of thug his nose at the agencies at every turn. Now if all of that is gone in, the valuation is largely wrapped up in full self driving and autonomy. IT should be rerated.

Does that makes some sense? Like know, I get that i'm not saying that they're not going to have some problems if they start rolling this stuff out sooner than expected, sooner than IT should be done for safety reasons. But again, that's the investor perception because that's what a lot of the true believer s have been buying this stock for.

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The last time this gentleman joined the stand was march eighth of this year. So welcome back to the undertaking podcast with brian bell. Skee, of course, brian and is a chief investment strategist and head of investment strategy group global markets B M O capital. How are you? I'm great.

How are you? You look.

sort of you look troubled by something. What I was that because he's back here with us. Guy, that's IT. No, I was worried .

about how my voice was going to sound because i've been on the phone or on screen now I mean, after the election, you know, twelve hours yesterday.

I just want to say this. So when you're here in march, we had not had more fun with a gas that we had with you because a lot of status and we have a lot of great, great strides come on the pod. We haven't come on obviously fast money with us. IT was kind of like brian belsky unless .

a little bit, by the way, brian bell unleashed unplugged also brand bells balls on right in terms of the market. I mean, so that was march. This is now november.

And you you were extraordinary ly optimistic and posh for a lot of different reasons, most of which I didn't degree with, all of which came to fruition on europe. And so let's go from there to here. What's change? If anything, what you sort of got right, what didn't see coming and we will get into what you think is coming ahead.

Well, thanks. We're incredibly humbled by that. We really are. I mean, I think I am what I am, and that's all what I am to pull the pop I quote for those of first first, and I think why people got IT so wrong and maybe why we got IT so right is I I think we're part of the the last of the lost generation to pull bill mary wine from strikes.

I don't think status, look at the things the market like the way that we do. We really live and die by the notion of the stock markers and market of I think so many people that do that. I do uh are so fixated on making the big market call and so focused on what the P E number is times the earnings number and that your market target is not that simple.

There's other things you have to do with and I think to that managing money, which we do the third part of our job, we've run U S. Strain, canaan strategy portfolio strategy really keeps us humble but also convicted in terms of how we think about the way that I that is guy, is that if you tell an investor get out, there are not coming back, right? There are coming back.

And so there's ways to be much more thoughts about that. I go back to look at this year, things that we got wrong, maybe we are, are more so on the stocks side, things. So we nail the sectors, we nail the market.

I wish we would have been more bullish on directionally maybe and communication services. We did that for more of a portfolio o construction site. thanks. But from the the way that we approached twenty twenty four was this barbell this thing, man, from a sector, let's be big and tech and big and financials.

And we were early, but super redant financials in maintaining tech took some balls, especially considering, however, body was really start to worry about IT, the concentration, everything like that. And so I think going forward, where we were maybe a little bit early on, was this whole notion of Normalization. We started talking about Normalization in our twenty, twenty three year ahead, which we published late in twenty twenty two.

We still think that the Normalization trade is on this year. Was cotton quotes ceiling and emotional because of the stupid election, which think god that were done with that? That was, if you think about what twenty and twenty three was, twenty and twenty three was the oversold rally and text docks.

Twenty twenty two was was the notion of of inflation and fiscal and motor policy. So what we're doing is we're unwinding all that many where no, that shit course. I think twenty five actually is our chance to become more Normal.

So now we going back to march of this year, yeah, financials were non consensus here. And if I go back and remember, there were a lot of reasons to be very cautious in that sector. As you just said, IT took longer than you probably thought to play out. But over the last few months, several over the last couple of weeks, they're playing out in a major way. So does this late run that we're seeing IT backs up your thesis without question, but give you pause the magi .

ude to the move? No, no, because I actually think that the majority of my institutional clients are massively under exposed financials. They are good mutual friends, got anal, well worth, thematic and fundamental investors.

Again, we're not just buying the B, K, X etf, right. Our theme along was by scale and a lot of people who know what the hell that means you want to buy big money banks says they got big baLances to multidirectional onal. Last just number one, the asset management business is a scalable business.

You can throw P, E. Firms and their two like black on scalable business. And then lastly, the broader business is a scalable business.

You just describe more standing and basically in few senses.

Is that fair for me the way that I look at IT because I spend time at miral inches, for me, it's the last of the big box retailers that is mary inch now because it's the largest stand alone kind of broken firm. But remember, during the credit crisis, all these brokers became banks right to protect themselves. So I think what is gone on is we took the call and we involve the call, first of all, scalable assets in march.

And then in the summer time, we said when we up a number from fifty one hundred and fifty six hundred, we said, hey, listen, I know that we've been kind of skidding on the regionals. Let's start to buy a basket original that we said we want you to own if you're going to play ay thematic the really big ones and all, by the way, the really small ones, that's clear the shit out of everybody because people are still living in the the march volatility twenty, right? Guess what if you're doing the fundamental analysis and your dig in in the weeds and you're looking at X, Y, Z bank in your same great management, great asset quality, the conservative and they are really good in terms of their long quality, that's a great big.

And if you're if you're a consumer, this is just common sense. And you are in bosman, montana and you own a big store and across the street is close bank, the CEO, the bank or the manager, the bank that have bears with three years. Are you going to get alone from clash bank? Or are you going to get alone from jp? You get one from .

we've talked about at all the time the importance of small regional banks to the economy. I mean, if you think about small businesses dominate landscape across the country whose services a small business .

is small regional bank s, so you're sport on really small banks, not U. S. Bank, a regional bank, but really small bank. I I think um may be wrong. I often am first citizens, uh is one of the best, if not the best performing big we've wit for three years in our small makeup portfolio. And so I think that going forward, and here's evolution of of the call, right?

I think given the fact that less regulations for banks are coming most likely coming with the new regime, I think that, that the best chance for consolidation is going to be in those regional banks because, oh, by the way, brothers, they cannot compete with Morgan standing. Jp, more again, what jane fraser and A D C. I've done at city group, they can't compete with them because they know the baLance.

So I bet, you know, I don't know anything, but I bet true is combines with somebody or you have another U. S. bank. Does I think at that level, they need to actually combine .

part of that is that they can be particularly competitive with the all the names that you mentioned, an environment where like the financialization of everything is happening, right? So you use the example of the guy who runs the bate store. But you know, if you think about two thirds of the employers in our country are small, medium size businesses and alike, and everything is getting more sophisticated, you probably need a bit more scale than that little body bank or whatever. The example that right?

That's why know we always think about the number seventy percent of the economy. The live bread of the of the economic perspectives in north amErica is just call IT. Can the united states are the small middle p companies, both private and public? So if you think that that's why the really small bank and the really big bank works as why the kd banks are amazing, but also sharply Y I mean, come on, that's the deep portal for small make cap companies and so of from an enterprise perspective and efficiency perspective, I mean, this hold the mine thinks the terms of playing themes and buying star back in march.

I think I was concerned that the unemployment rate would start moving higher. I was right, but I was early and timing, but it's playing out. So we saw the unemployment right go for I think three, four, maybe three, five, up to four point three as we're sitting here today, it's four point one.

So in some degrees, I had that run, right? What is played out though is the impact on the market. When does IT impact the market? Or is IT still historically low? It's within sort of your range of Normal thing.

You not all concern ics. Very critical of how we do what we do at a mois, going back and judging what we've written about in the past. And I remember right before I came to B.

M, I was at this firm called open hyman. We had a great single in there after the created crisis. We built a really cool team there.

But I remember some of my stuff. I went back about a year ago looking at what we were talking about, three more back in two thousand and eleven, and very different. Who was going on here? I remember him. And print, if we could just get on employing people that give you perspective .

when you go back and read something like then put IT in the context of where things are now because, you know, I can get hyperbolic, but then to your point, you look back in history and a way to second, let's just out of temper thing that's a sorted, you know, knock things done a little bit here. So things speak to that the importance of going back in history and reading some of the things .

you've written yeah real things that i've written, but then also lived like we're in the process of writing a year at peace. So we're looking at how four years of ball Marks start. So just to repeat, we came.

Up with this call in two thousand and ten that a twenty five years secular bull market start in two thousand nine. And we're napping stubber rapping bullsh. We really believe okay.

And so in a secular world market, you can have single bear. We had one two thousand eleven. We had one to twenty eighteen. We only twenty two. And so the new second ball Marks started in october of twenty two. K nobody called that a ball market because we're so afraid to be wrong with, I want to be right, is not able market IT dollar up twenty percent then C, B, C, that twenty percent where people market, come on, man, anyway, you don't you have to go to where the pop scape, to where the pop is going. Anyway, that was my little.

well, let's do this who have some breaking right recording this. So the fed came out with a rate cut decision. IT was united.

Five best point cut. IT was unanimous.

Let's just go over a couple of ability and get reaction here. A fed tweak language to labor market conditions have generally eased. The unemptied rate has moved up but remains low. We just hit that a little bit, removed the reference to further inflation progress, noting inflation has made progress toward the committee two percent goal, which remains in somewhat elevated.

The fed said for a year that they were not gone to wait until they have got to their goal to start cutting interest rates, and then they've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving towards that two percent targets. They may maintain the language saying that risk achieving employment inflation goals are roughly in bonded. So that's from bloomberg. So talk us a little bit about what you take away from that.

Depressor is going on right now. I speak I think it's really good that they went back and start talking about that really in terms of left in new forward guide point is they have some confidence in what they're doing, and I think that's good from the dool Mandate types of things. They're not just focused on.

I talk about unemployment, but they have to also address on the inflation side. And given the fact that the stock market is doing what it's doing, think there's been more and more talk that the said out there believing that maybe they are not going to cut as much as everybody. thanks.

I always caution people, and I probably dist caught on the fed futures, but I was here in march and I think people are baked in too many cuts next year as well. So going back to the whole perspective side of things, my quick, smart as comment would be too. So last time I check, and i'm just a dumb poo x lash. I irish kid from minnesota, one hundred minus four is what?

One hundred and four .

is ninety six six, ninety six percent of the countries employed bone not drop the mike. So um obviously trends we double digital S I think going to the back. So it's not only just reviewing what we written, it's also reviewing what you ve lived through, but by this jobs.

So I was a Young lad, clearly eight years old back in one thousand nine nine the duck e house of wall street. That's my joke. Some people going get that um but look at up I remember sum of nineteen ninety my boss built on the the firm the daily get everybody in the firm on the same floor.

Think about this, jumped up, literally jumped up instead on the top of a filing cabinet. You don't know if any cabinet IT is a GLE google anyway and he said iraq and the cake, I think we're heading in the recession. We need to cut cost.

That was the meeting. Go back to your desk, start working. So we get called in the research director's office and research structure. Onic colon was our name, but rest or so he said, research four month later, the bear market, after having a three year bull market. Remember the board market after the eighty seven crash.

So eight, eighty, eighty nine, ninety, at a bar market for three months, three, four months, and then the newspaper gan and ninety. So you have lived through this before you think about the little bear market. That was a signal bear market within a big secular ball, eighty two, two thousand.

Kk, so if you think about the construct of that, I can well and should happen again. The history can be repeating itself. So that's the kind of perspective that we're very blessed to have been doing this for a long time, but through IT. But I think being in the public space in having a published opinion means something out there are not just spouting IT off because you think that, but you have to stand beyond your words and do .

the analysts behind IT because IT surprise you. The duration of the sell off get smaller and smaller in terms of just absolute rations. I mean, think about August fifth, that cell blasted forty eight hours. I mean, i'm just using that obviously anio tally, but I go back and rattled off five or six of type of two, three.

four day events. You should you ask me before what we a mistake? We should have raised our number August fifth, I wanted to, but I also thought that we may get another retest of August faith.

And sometimes in this business, you over think and you want to be too cute. I've never been never been accused of being q before. But um but at the end of the day, I wanted a bit of more of a pull back and we should have done that.

But I have I think I might have an answer for that guy. And the answer is even after this market rally, I still don't think people really believe in equities. I still know they they're trying to come up with reasons why not to believe it's still duct the GDP.

And oh my god, h trump's gona kill up with the terror s all this negativity, negativity, negative, negative, negative. In the meantime, go, go. So you think about IT, man, since ninety eighty two, we had this big forty years old market.

The majority of the performance of total return in bods came from performance, right? I believe the majority the total return, the extension going to come from yal. And I do think that there's going to be more more money come on auto bonds in the stocks in there, I say amount pissed people off a more more money, private equity and coming in to equity. That's where the next chance of monies and to come from.

Yeah, you made the point earlier that a lot of computer is in the strategies set. They make the mistake of basically ly taking the earnings number and the enterprise and Price and and there you go, you have something there.

So at twenty one to have time, twenty two, you suspect you know we're going to come in, let's say, you know, on the low end ten percent year over year earnings through this year, I think consensus is calling for fourteen e percent next year. Are we likely to see a lot of multiple expansion because, you know, fifteen percent year over years kind of baked in the cake right here. A lot of folks are saying, well, twenty one to have twenty two time because starting is very expensive.

If we don't see a sort of like acceleration of foreigners like the mag seven in there have been a huge contributor, right in a huge part of the ability that kind of hit that ten percent bogie that we're likely or ten ten percent this year. Can all the other sectors make up for that? Or we just going to see just so much money coming out of the bond market? To your point, going into equities is just going to to push the value and that much higher in, I guess, does that make IT that much risk? You are right to continue to buy at a level that now we're just unbated .

from the low and twenty two were movie rao rao goes, yes, and cuba, good in junior and is said of the dinner that the waist comes over and says, what kind of you one apple, a peach he is both right. So what talking about all I I think it's going to be both earnings earnings gonna be higher than everybody looks in here to see some multiple expansion. We do a lot of work and have my entire career on sectors in earnings.

Revisions are a very important part of us. We run a division index are probably awesome people looking at F Y two over F I in fiscal year two earning exactly. But we look at the trend is not about the absolute number number about the trend, right? So if you take a look at the mag seven and earnings revisions and then plotted against absolute growth, growth looks like it's p IT is what IT is.

We get IT, right? We're still twenty five, thirty percent grow and just keep in the math simple. But revisions are starting to even out. But the other four hundred and ninety three stocks are bottom ing out and growth and revisions are going up.

Kay, now you magnify that through the small midcap universe that we've been really bullishness on in, not just saying that by small cap, we've been in print on IT know something that I talked about I see in march under my theme of jacky moon, everybody love everybody on a little bit of of everything. I really believe, guys, ten years now, we're going to be kick in ourselves that we did not buy more small mid capsules because of the cash flow in the earnings. I really believe from a fundamental perspective, we're going to have a broader out of earnings growth again as to go in to pick on our friends score.

Financial financial financial financial sector analysts are way understanding banks because they would ve over reserved right the box act paying dividends. We've had absolutely no way, this whole notion, a bubbles and A I we've had no baking deal, no I P S, no consolidation. When we start to see that rap up, maybe get little a bit more, but the banks, this to that.

So let's just say a bunch of these companies that have see what we are, the CEO, a company called perplexity on the podcast. I want to say guy was at back in feb and that time ah I think he was february, march.

And this company, I mean, there are x like deep mind OpenAI a start, this little thing and they're building something in around these large language models they call IT and answer engine, not a search engine, and they're going up against, you know, OpenAI and in microsoft and you say yourself, okay, well, when he came on ipad, IT was the series a at a billion, then they did a series b at two billion. Now they're dealing a sea or A D at nine billion. This is all in one calendar year, right? So if you want to bring this company public and in gold and jp morning and everyone else is all over this company, know how do they grow into that valuation.

If a bunch of. Companies was like anthropic, which is last value at forty billion. You know, open the eyes is the easy one, right? IT was last value at one hundred and fifty billion.

I think they're expected to do maybe ten billion dollars in sales and twenty six, you know they're losing lots of money. Won't that be like a you got to get your antennas up a little bit if we start to see all that banking activity? There was an article in the information just yesterday talking about crypto IPO are coming again. This is as G, P, S, like twenty one. No, it's kind of what i'm saying.

I don't think there yet. It's just kind like mortal lives up like this. Guess what? You can only book that again if you actually just like .

you can only see that kind of that you .

are with yeah yeah and remember peaks and ema when they coincide with M A. The majority of M A being done with stock. That's not good.

You don't want that. You want them a with cash. That's a lot Better. So we're not anywhere near seeing that type of unwind in that. I think it's gonna really interesting if you start to see consolidation in other areas with respect tor, less regulation could be consumer companies, could be health care companies. I think financials and energy.

you're going to be ably the i'm guilty of the simplicity you talked about, but i've heard you mention correctly, by the way, once again, that you should be paying a premium multiple for earning sera united states based on a number of factors, not at least of which the advance we have over the rest of the world. So what was historically rich does not team is rich now given the correlation between other areas.

So you know you've made the argument that you know twenty three times in terms of S M P. Multiple is not unreasonable in this today's world. Does that still exist?

Is not unreasonable. I think we could see two to three more multiple points higher. Again, this is where being too simpler stic with taking that number times two seventy five number of next year, uh, where you have to also look at we run a discount casual divided discount model in the market.

We look at macro regressions. We look at historical regressions of P E. And things like that.

So if you do that, we're not we are in then look at historical performance atterson. We're not stretched even as you said, up seventy percent is the bear market law. Actually, we're we're not stretched. And so going back to the twenty twenty one thing, two twenty one you have the four horses of the apocalypse SE. So who the force, the means, the spaces you ve well, a bit coin. But then also I throwing, like the Cathy wood, not just respect type of yeah type of investing, which is you know hit homards right hit homerun all the time, which would be great if you can hit homewards. But i'd rather hit singles .

and doubles and be right curve. Tony in had more assists in college as a basketball player. Sand ago state that he had strikeouts in his career.

I love that that were .

dilated .

and sorry, drove that. right? Zero percent interest rates in in combination monitary policy and fiscal policy, the opposite happening now, right? So in terms of if you're thing that twenty twenty five going to be a kid, a twenty twenty one, no, because of look at the impact of of aggressive monetary policy in combination of aggressive fiscal policy and where we were as a society. I'll still kind of locked up watching the boob tube and again, we're getting back to Normal yeah so that .

makes perfect sense to me. And again, I I think twenty twenty one is not a great comparison when you think about just all the backs and in the low quality companies that we're going public in like and I think you know the excitement around cyp du IT felt to us, you know, he started doing the podcast, what guy in january twenty, twenty one, and we got super barrier h, we were really close to a lot of the stuff.

I had certain consulting relationships in the event banking space. Guy was obviously very close to a lot of bankers, a lot of IT just felt like he was a free for all, you know. And so IT wasn't shut the beam stuck stuff too.

Yes, I was kind of ring in the bell. But now what what we have here is we have A A tran in stock, which is tesla. You I mean like that's that's true.

You don't mean like make no mistake about IT and soap me I I just some point in twenty twenty five. There's no doubt my mind this continue to go. And guy's point is that the cell ops keep getting smaller and smaller. At some point, there's going to be a sort of disconnect and that makes some sense. You like the july, August thing turns into a october thing and we have fifteen percent lower.

something like that. yeah. So again, not to talk out both sides of my house to would .

also be Normal and .

and again, I made the comment before, if you go to a uh high net twor k client and say sell and I come back. But I think what you have to be, you have to be very thoughtful and you say, you know what, I think we can take some chips off the table. And that's Normal to have these types of annual performance that we had in twenty three, twenty four.

Given the fundamental backdrop and given the concentration, the likelihood of another twenty five or thirty percent year next year is low. And i'm not going to steal my thunder for my your head next year. But at the end of the day, I think it's still can be positive and still be in a bull market.

But I think the cross current are beginning. And all, by the way, it's good. It's positive that we're not going to be this crazy anymore.

What do you make of the move in interest rates from that mid september fed rate cut of fifty basis points that was expected from three point six percent at ten years, we got up to, I think, four forty seven or so yesterday, yesterday, wednesday and is we're sitting here today, is still four thirty five giver take that move? Is that based on the perception economic growth is gonna accelerate? Or is there some sort of combination of a bunch of factors.

this combination of growth can be but um we don't have an unemployment. The bond markets based, we given a finger to fed funds futures into the economy that have been wrong, wrong, wrong. Um but I also think it's too going back to I think people are reichard money. I think people replicating money and selling bonds.

so add the bond market into whatever. So could knows. My next follow, is there a rate in the ten year that will concern you or as long as that keeps going up based on the things you just talked about, it's actually encouraging sign.

In march, we talked about the average ten year treasury last seventy five years, five percent. I think five percent IT doesn't bother us fundamentally. But I think that bothers the crowd. The heard I think that i'll freak people out. And I think ultimately.

that could provide a .

buying opportunity. Stocks go down. We don't like one stock good down because people lose money, people forget that, right? But I do think some sort of a respect at some point would do everybody really good to kind of hit a reset because I do think that we need to kind of accelerate how are looking at stocks and how imaging money and kind of stop focusing on on the market overall, start focusing on individual stocks.

So guys point about rates. We also have this issue with the dollar that's up dramatically. So when you think about that, going back to that sort of earnings growth picture, we know us multinationals rely a great deal on overseas cells in the lake.

How how do you make how does the dollar strength? How does the yields kind of maybe higher for longer scenario? How does that play into this S M P earnings picture that you have for twenty twenty five?

You know, it's interesting that the correlation between the S M P five hundred Price performance in the dollar is actually quite positive. Everybody thinks it's negative, but it's not meaning dog goes down, the stocks go up. It's actually if you look out over a longer term time period, what does that mean?

That just means that it's also a picture of strong economic activity and U. S. Drink in general.

So all this whole are below that. The U. S. Dollars is not going to be the world reserve current. I think I think we have to talk about that for a while. Then the press thing, god. And so I do think that there's a lot of rhetta c out there that president trump ants a week dollar.

I don't know about that, but we don't know anybody know. I don't think he knows what he said. Let's talk about this because one of the things they are really like, what you said about you guys do look at socks.

You obviously look a whole heck a lot of sectors and some your strategy just don't 现在 granular。 So one of the bigger drivers in the S M P this year has been obviously megatons. We just spend some time on the tech.

But if you look at the microsoft, which is down still at least ten percent or so from its fifty two week high, at which are all time high at a time where today, and has actually all time the S M P trading at all time high, you have an e lilly, right? So the G, L, P ones we never agreed. That was a big Maggie trend. I think novo notice and elli were one point three trillion dollars together. And so when you think about and you just talked about a running out that doesn't bother you that, that folks are coming out of some of those very crowded sort of mega trends in some ways.

Is that kind of bullish for is very bullish are seen for those big tech talks. Are there the new consumer staples? I can believe lilly now is is the largest dog in the S M.

P. Five hundred health care sector just astonishes me. And we have representation in our portfolios about that.

Does that make me worried? Hundred percent of because of the dominance of the the way class drug stuff. So we're constantly looking at how we can be a little bit more forward thinking on that.

I do think to answer you a question, I think it's very positive that we are seeing some distribution saying these bigger names, IT doesn't mean that they're gna be going down, doesn't an that they're actually going to be under performing overlying periods of time, especially microsoft. But that does mean that you want to start looking especially technology down in cap. If you think oracles down in cap ative, microsoft right into other names that aren't those big giant.

Doing that. I mean, guy just made this point and he's done in a bunch on this pod and on fest money. And you know a company like entier that now has hundred and twenty billion dollar cap is expected to do what three and a half billion dollars in sales in the consensus.

You know, growth is like twenty percent low, twenty and earnings and cells growth for next few years. How do you ever grow into that direction? That's what investors we're doing earlier this year.

What is the stock cup on the year? guy? It's up two hundred and twenty percent simple like that.

So I feel like there's definitely like some stuff is getting picked over a little bit because IT R. T. Has Brown that little bit.

We've been very lucky and bless that we bought pelling era while ago and we added to a little bit during some recent weakening in August. And that's what we're talking about in terms of just implicit stock back. Here's a masterful manager of the business that knows the business that has the technology process that has delivered with respectful earnings and has a growth trajectory and is respected in the industry.

And so that's the kind of name you want to be in, and that's where you you want to continue to diversify out of these big guys. Doesn't you sell only big guys? But I think the next wave is worth, I mean.

to get down a year. But it's fascinating about that is he's been telling the same story since they were. We're publicly traded company people just starting to listen to him now.

But the story really hasn't changed. It's just, I think, people's attention of change and now understanding what has been put in forth for quite some time now. With that said, the move has been extraordinary. Congratulations on APP. But there will be a point where I think to make a portfolio sion about a name like people here.

right? That's a great example. The tell the attending a time one more time and IT depends upon you know from just up waiting perspective, when you're running money and looking at risk, just a returns and all kind of stuff that if you're going to have a five or six person position in or seven video, you're not going to have a seven percent position in palen teer, right? Maybe one or two percent in those that run more constant positions that have four, five percent positions in county. You get a look at that when you have a big move like that.

Let me ask you this question because, no, I do think it's interesting in the context of what we talk about. The commodity market is been telling an entirely different story up in terms of the move lower a lot of these things. V, V, what's been going on theoretically with the strength economy? What's the disconnect there? If there is.

I remember being on the show. C, B, C, half time, and there's give me shit for being underweight energy this year. And like why underway energy? I don't look at the charter.

W, I, next question in, because the correlations are so strong with the underlying commodity, if you look at the the C R B metals index relative to the S P five other material sector, it's a great chart. Even even stronger correlation with the respect of canadian materials obviously is a bigger part of the index there. In here in america, you have chemicals and other things you can buy with respect, three percent sector through four percent sector.

But it's clearly that's more a global growth story relative to what's going out here in the U. S. And in given the fact to from the makeup of our index, it's a smaller part. So think about how ridiculous that is. Energy four person which think about IT.

It's peak, but I think you're right and it's the same with financials at one point. Financial think we're eighteen percent of the S M P five hundred and now it's mid single digits .

h in the old days. Now we're probably aging ourselves. Remember used to say says financial s go to go the market in even as G E. Goes to the market member.

Now it's in video. Yeah went to go back for one second here because I think it's interesting that crude basically unchanged and was as high, I say almost ninety and they ve got down to sixty six, I want to say a month and a half ago. But and guys brought to stock up a lot and has been very positive on his exxon, outperforming the S M P. It's up twenty four percent, the commodity you can get out of its own way. You know you see the drillers that are down on the year ver on ah well, that's A I was going .

to go there. You go back in. Chevron announced seventy five billion dollars stock buyback and earnings release at the balls high of their stock Price. And the stock is never look back. I mean, that put a giant bulley on their back if you go back and look because the administration and got on their s yeah, the really interesting story. Anyway, please continue.

So think about wind's the time to start looking at that relative to switching out of x number one, two, don't be so quick because trump saying drill baby, drill l to go buy energy because has had the fundamental and all by the way, when you're running U S money.

d really want to be massively overweight. Actually have been drilling the last couple of years, was actually more capacity drilled here than to the trumpet .

admires in the strategic patrolling reserve has been to. And all I can think is they're going to be more cap, acs are going to be more jobs, all kind of stuff and and whatever.

But I think going forward, just look at the Price the mode look at is doing, and that's kind of your best the greatest time to buy those things guys is when when you have some sort of global growth scare, and we're not there yet, but maybe we will maybe if maybe it's china. China needs to do something. Probably china is gonna, mulata and more. That would be my guess to try to .

keep pace anything out there that you're looking at sort of on the horizon. And that gives pause the whether it's bank of japan and what's going on there in terms of the currency moves, the geopolitical stuff, potential for china, taiwan, I can write all off all of you for a more. But is anything that you are looking at we don't talk about .

is not just political. I think you know for us, if IT would be a reaction elerson of inflation and or going back to sediment and if we start this stupid stuff on the ipl front, in the, uh, consolidation front.

that would worry me. What would cause a reacclimatise? A IT would be a demand thing or support? I mean, it's what, again, the answer a lot of time for some combination. But to be one of the other would be from the supply side of things or just all acceleration of demand.

The thing that makes more sense for me is more than reacclimatise mand. If we start to see that. And I think maybe that's why the fed is doing and what it's doing.

we've always enjoyed listening who to talk about your journey as a strategist. I remember when you were I was actually a miral back then, and I remember how much the folks on our desk relied on the sort of stuff that you were saying. And one of the reasons that I thought you you know, back then you were one of these guys as you were nimble, you always kind of nimble, but you also had a longer term outlook.

And I took a lot for you to kind of change your mind because you did work on a level that maybe some year other. And I just go back to what you said a earlier about kind of the strategy cohort. I mean, some of the mark are narrow in the way that they think about things and look at the market. So talk a little bit about, I guess, that evolution and what you can lean into now sometimes we do .

to receive some heat. Walter loves to get under my skin little bit. And how, you know, I say something about another state you think .

like another name. No.

I IT drives me crazy that sometimes people aren't held accountable for coming, saying something, and then they don't back IT up. And I think, you know, listen, god, as you do a lot of things, you had actually numbers you meant. And i've been fired three times on wall street, and you have to kind of go through the pain.

And i've had a fight and scrape for every single thing that i've done. I don't have the fancy, fancy N, B, A. And I declared Victory after level one of my C, F, A.

And I just had to work and fight for everything. And I worked at really small firms until I got the moral. And at the end of the day, I think people guys has been so focused on there's so afraid to be wrong and they don't want to be right.

And that's what LED everybody to become. So mac role. And so quite, and I always pleaded with people, remember your advice, people are listening to that and make IT be losing money.

And I really caused people, please, please, please understand. And the greatest thing that i've ever been able to doing my career, sit across the table from somebody that i've lost money for, that is a massively humbling. And so I think that makes us different in, again, I don't disperate IT.

There's a lot smart, more equant people than we are. And and there's there be a lot of people that do this after me. But I would just caution everybody, have some common sense, know that what you're saying means something to people and really have some accountants for what you're seeing and saying we do because we're blessed to be able to run money. But if you don't run money, please just understand that you have a lot of responsibility.

No, it's fair. No, you got to take ownership without question. And you're right. Mean, there is a responsibility when you talk about these things because people do listen. And other side of the coin that I am guilty of more times than not is you also want to sort of try to warn people of some of the pit falls out that you've live through and you've experience and you don't want necessarily people to have to endure. And sometimes not bringing that light is just as bad as you know, trying to look at IT through the other .

s as well yeah into that point. I mean, our careers living through the late nineties and watching those returns year after a year starting in ninety five, right? And everyone knew that there was a bubble that was forming.

You didn't know when I was going to pop. And then we had a protracted bar market. And then you think about the lead up in the returns into the financial crisis and what happened there.

Then we had a protracted their market. This goes back to the point guy made a bit of ago, is just like the cellos gotten short and short. The Better markets have gotten short and short. So it's kind of for some of us, we spend a lot of time thinking about what could go wrong, you know, going forth, especially when you have a mike in front of your face every day.

the week. I'm so glad you brought up nineteen ninety five and guy was stacking about that kind of a pro long pull back that we need. Nineteen ninety four man was like the betan death march.

I remember that, oh my gosh, I was. We were so where I was at date, at the time, and I was so scary. And then you think about in the nineteen ninety five was up too much greats. And speech about a rational exists, everybody thinks, is about tech, nothing to do.

A tech that drives me crazy when people talk about the about tech, just like the about disco, about what seventies, not about the nineties, were about the nifty fifty in the consumer, stable stocks in big cap concentration, right? As G, E, goes, so goes the market. And so we thought the market was super excited.

And then over sun, we had the big pullback in the fall. Then I was gripped and ript. Here comes a tax tracks, and that was IT. And so when you can live through that in history isn't necessarily provided to what can happen the future. But I sure can teach you and have a road map in terms of how .

things could happen. Thank you for the road map that we this year you can twenty twenty four, we suspect you pretty right in twenty twenty five. So I think our listeners, our viewers really appreciated brian belk.

Thanks for coming. Well, have you back early in twenty five, and we look forward to a brand.

thanks. Thank you so much.