Morning After: Implications For Tech & Markets | Okay, Computer.
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Well, emini pick up in twenty twenty four. Well, this year marked the return of ipos. Listen to strategic alternative of podcast from R B C capital markets to get fresh insights on the transit market forces impacting deal flow across sectors and find out how companies and investors are preparing for pencil surge and deal activity in what signals to watch forward this year. Listen and subscribe to strategic alternatives, the R B C capital markets podcast today, wherever you get your podcast, I welcome to a very unusual episode of okay computer podcast. I'm DNA than I am joined by guy a domi guy hawara.

How are you? How are you? How are you IT is a fascinating day in terms of know the lens of we look at things through the risk assets, the markets, individual stocks, a lot to talk about.

Yeah all gone. So this is the opening. This is wednesday morning. We had the election last night.

Um I think you guys all know what happened uh, there, but you know this sort of volatility that we're seeing guide in its upward volatility in most things. Just to kind of set things up here. The S M P S up about two percent and aza x up about two percent.

The ten year us treasure yield is up twenty basis points to four point four five percent at the highest levels since july. The us dollar index a massive move higher, up two percent. Bitcoin in trying to get new all time hires um up seven percent.

We're going to get to some single names and some kind of sector stuff in a minute and try to kind of pass through some of the potential implications of this new administration. We also affect meeting tomorrow um where that pretty hotly anticipated twenty five basis point cut. I think there are ninety nine percent probability again when you're looking at the cm E D watch tool.

But like you said, vick is down twenty. So let's just kind of a talk about the mac ro for a second here because I think it's also important know that the S B, N as that are also making new all time highs here. So a whole sense of enthusiasm, if you will, for risk assets.

And my question to you is, doesn't make sense and is IT likely too? steck? Okay.

let's try on rather this a little bit. Does IT make sense? Yes, I think is the short answer.

Is that likely to stick? I think that's where we have to start to sort of drill down a little bit. And I would answer that question no for a number of different reasons.

But let's look at these things. Wanted to time. The first thing that I looked at today is obviously the bond market.

Then I said, okay, what is the anticipation? What is the market starting to Price in? So then I looked at the Russell through the lens of the I wm.

Is we're sitting here today. Now the rusal is making a new fifty two week again through the I wm. Two thirty six and change the prior all time high was back in november of twenty twenty one dance.

So three years ago when we got to about two forty years. So so what the Russell is saying is near the account there, there's a thought that small businesses and mostly the small regional banks were going to a benefit from less regulation. And I think the market is taking excuse from that.

But don't underestimate the bond market. Now the naysay, I will say yields moving higher a function of the going to be more debt, more debt to finance potentially higher inflation. I think the optimist is looking at the move in yields and saying it's the economy is going to be accelerate to the upside, and that's why yields are going higher.

So there's a lot to look at today, clearly, and i'm still trying to figure red IT out. But the two my biggest to take ways on top of everything else is the Russell in the bond market. Yeah so small .

cafs regional banks you know regional banks less uh regulation, they should go higher. But to other point about small businesses and in this environment of the economies about to inflection, they should do Better. I just want to make one point about yields, treasury yields.

So interestingly, at the end of twenty twenty one mega cap text stocks were absolutely raging. I think that was the beginning of multiple trillion dollar caps at the time. Fed signal that wanna start raising interest rates right to battle inflation that they kind of in twenty one.

And when you think about where fed funds was and you think about where the ten year was, the ten year was below two percent gave at the time. I think he was like kind of one sixty or something like that. So here we on the ten year at four forty six now, yields went up pretty dramatically.

In twenty two, the stock market sold off pretty significantly. I think at one point, the nazi was down thirty seven percent. In the S.

P, T, lose was down, I think, twenty seven percent. Some of the hardest hit stocks were some of the biggest magic cap tech. We know that meta, in NVIDIA, in tesla, in netflix, sold up about seventy percent.

So here we are now with rates higher, you think they're going even higher no matter what the fed does to tomorrow? I I guess the question is, is at some point, do these higher rates kind of way on these long duration assets? You and I will not know that, but that brings this kind of this next point in a way is that let's look at the max seven and let's see how they're performing today because there's lots accused that we can take from the last trumpet administration how they felt about mega atteck.

We know that trump in particular was not happy with mark zuckerberg, but sixteen and in twenty twenty, I think there's a lot of reporting that he thought that no zuker berg finance the kind of get out the vote in twenty, twenty and then lost. And we know this guy holds bridges. The other one is interesting, going the opposite way.

When trumps started the trade war in putting terrify china, he excluded iphone, uh excluded apple products, which was actually a very good thing. So it's not just like a manual how he might treat mega cap tech, but today metas down two percent. Guy and and apples, you know, up one percent.

We also see, you know, google trading very well. Maybe the thought is they've kind of SAT these last couple of elections out. And we know the D O, J is all over them where the couple of cases, you know, maybe they're kind of take the pedal of the metal.

That being said, and I just wanted, before I get your opinion, two of these big justice department cases, one against meta and the other against google, were initiated during the first trump administration, right? So it's not exactly clear how the next one will take this. In the last point i'll just mention is that last week when a vice president elect, vance, was on the joe rogan podcast, he said he hates big tech.

okay. So and he actually has said in the last, I don't know years that he actually like lena hon. And he is the head of the ftc and she's been the one bring a lot of these cases. So no, a lot there. But like give me your sense on big capacity and how they fair well.

lean economy that you can hear that name more and more often. I think over the next couple of she's the ftc chair. I think you know she's been in that role, I want to say, since twenty twenty one or they are about.

So I think the major reaction is her days are numbers and then went, but he started to unpeeled unin sort of pull this thing back a little bit and say, you know, you just mention what jay event said and maybe she's maybe she's the exact right person that this samina straying one in because, you know, she's going to be hard on big tech. I think you're right to bring up facebook. I mean, clearly the stock market is answering some questions today on the back of an obviously addle Jones at an S M.

P. Making new all time hides. You have an under performance in facebook, which makes sense. And I do think there's a bit of a bulls out there, but I think google might actually wind up being the winner here is in some, I don't know, perverse. I understand what I just said doesn't sort of line up with that, but I think taking to sort of I think the bullies is going to be off of google and the bulls, I might find itself more in terms of a facebook. And if you want to play a little bit of stock market here, I think the paris trade for the next few months might be long google, a long alphabet and short facebook, short meta.

Yeah, that makes some sense. I think the most fascinating story in mega p tech is clearly tesla. The stock is up on nearly fifteen percent as we're speaking right now. It's trading near two year highs, twenty twenty three. We know IT topped out just above four hundred dollars back in late twenty twenty one.

And you know, what's gone on here is that elan MC eo got all in behind trump, I think is probably fairly safe to say that some of the stuff that he was doing with the ground game in pensylvania, the way he put in this is clear. This is not just my opinion, put his dumb on the scales of of twitter. And he is, you know, hundred percent entitled to do that.

He owns that company is uh a private social network. You know he really helped the administration. So when you think about a couple of things, musk and tesla particular, they need those EV credits to make the cars are cheaper for consumers.

Um he also wants terrorists on chinese imports of evs. okay. So um in some ways, you know it's hard to tell whether that helps our hurts.

From a competitive standpoint, IT makes his cars more competitive, but that depends what the chinese end up doing right as far as terrified. Because we know that yeah they make a lot of cars in china. But you know this is tesla.

Who knows how this thing shakes up thoughts on the tesla situation because it's broader than that. It's broader than x or twitter. IT really brings you to space sex and starling. And that's probably the most difficult situation if you're thinking about this as mosque is going to have a major, major seat at the table during the next administration.

yes. And obviously, that's the next one. You want to look at this test and just talk about what potentially could happen here.

So if elan musto have a role in this administration, and let's been talked about a number of times that I think the volumes been ratched up in meaningful way over the last month or so, what does that mean for his ten year tesla? Now I think there's some to say. Well, he can do both so we'd have to step away from tesla.

What does that mean for the stock? And something i've said over the last week. So and I reiterate on this show is five, six, seven years ago, I think elan must leaving tesla could be catastrophic for the stock.

I'm not certain that the case now, you know, they might be text, might be a place in their sort of arc where new management, a new administration, if I may use the word, might actually benefit tesla because maybe theyd be more focused and not as scattered in terms of some the other things that he's been looking at. So I think in one way to look at IT, aside from the obvious, might be beneficial for tesla. IT might be beneficial if elon musquet ve.

I know lot of people might push back on that in terms of the levels if folks are interested. And we talked about this the number of times, you know tesla route to the two sixty three level, which was prior resistance over the last year, year and a half. And quite Frankly, then if you look that stock traded from two sixty five all the way down about two forty years.

So so those levels held up. Now obviously, with the news about the election, you have a stock that sort of approaching this two ninety level, making a fifty two week. So maybe it's reestablished a new range. But know, I think somewhat countersuit ably if elan musk to leave tesla, maybe the new york is lower in the short term for the stock, but I actually think long term that might be a benefit.

Yeah, that's a pretty fascine point because if we go to look at apple, you know at the time that Steve jobs and obviously he had to leave for health reasons in the end of passing, but when tim cook took over, I mean, this is when the stock really got supercharged. You IT wasn't long after that buffer t went all in the company started um a huge buyback. I want to say this is back in twenty twelve.

I know um you know jobs passed in in twenty eleven and you it's been off to the races. Obviously you know the stock is not in immune to sell offs or whether people rought market sell offs or tions around the product cycles and the legs. So yeah, I can see tesla really benefiting from somebody who's less controversial.

You know, because the other the other point here is that the political discord is not likely to settle down any time soon, right? And so there are a lot of other options for people to buy evs right now that wasn't the case, you know, five, ten years ago. So IT will be interesting to see how that goes.

Aren't here's an area that I think is probably the most interesting of big tech because IT doesn't have a lot to do with regulation, but there has lot to do with supply chains that has lot to do with, you know, access to probably one of the most important pieces of tech going forward for a very long time. And that chip. So today, guy, let's start rave here.

Taiwan semi, as you say, is one of the most important come, maybe top three in the world, right? And so they dominate the manufacturing of high N G, P S, which obviously in video dominates. Okay, they are in taiwan.

Um we know the geopolitical situation there. So let's game this out for second stacks down two percent. That's the needs, right? So the idea is SHE kind of get in bolden, you know, the by administration had sent many at times that they were going to defend if there was any aggression towards taiwan.

But you know, trump is very transactional. And you know, I could see him cutting some sort of deal with SHE that I might benefit us. But by the same token, if there is any hick up about production of high and GPU, because no, make no mistake, about IT, we are in now a tech war. We have been for a while with china, but the stakes have never been higher. As a relates to generate a.

you talk about game theory, let's talk this out real quickly. I think you brought up the salient points. Obviously, the bite administration, I think, was steadfast in the camp of taiwan and the sovereign taiwan. I'm not certain that's gonna the case under the second trumpet administration.

So to your point, does that involve the chinese? Are to continue, are there aggression? And i'm using that sort of with air quotes, but to rattle IT things up a bit, I think the short answer is yes.

So the neuro reaction in taiwan semi makes a lot of sense, but then you have to sort of play IT out a little bit more. And this is not just meet talking. I mean, this is the CEO and video. Then, two years or so ago, talk about the existential risk to their company was, in fact, hostilities in taiwan.

So I think you have to look at your video position and say, okay, how does this play out? And what are the chances of something bad happening there? And is that a potential black swan for the chip trade? I think the short answer is yes.

I don't put IT in north of fifty percent, but I think there's definitely somewhere between the thirty five and forty percent chance of something happening over the next few months in early next year. And I think the same is going to be true on the other side of the well, not the other side of the globe. But in terms of what's going on with russian ukraine, you know, I think ukraine is going to be forced to go to the negotiating table.

I think something clear going to happen there. And then they have to ask yourself, does that embolden russia, or does that put them back on the hills and the people go into their corners for a period of time? But that's what you have to be thinking about right now. But I think I think that china's iwan situation didn't get any Better over the last twenty four hours. I think I actually might got a little bit worse.

bring ukraine into. This is kind of interesting with russia because you remember when russia first invaded ukraine in early twenty twenty two, a lot of U. S. Multinationals pulled out of.

They set a very interesting precedent, right? So if china were to be the aggressor in some situation with taiwan, what might happen for us multinationals? Als, in one of the reasons that this is so much more important, obviously, than what's gone on in ukraine ine, and not to minimize by any means the plate of the ukraine um people in the aggression of russia.

But think about how much our companies rely on two things, manufacturing in china, but also access to their consumer. So I think we've talked to many strategists, economist, if there was some situation, some sort of black ade of taiwan and there were some hick up as far as the ability for these chips to be manufactured there and ship, there is no amount of reassuring that's been done. We know that taiwan semi set up um a fab uh in phoenix and they just started producing some chips, I think.

But these things take five years to come online. That would be a massive, massive disruption, right? Let's move to the chips act here, guy, because this is something that trump has said on many occasions he thinks is a horrible deal and the and make no mistake about IT when he said deals that were negotiated by his predecessors in its first administration, or horrible deals he did, everything is power to unwind them.

Obviously, the iran deal, there was the trans pacific thing in asia. There was A U, S, M, C, A. Know there was a whole host thing.

So you think about who are the beneficiaries of this? Intel was one of them. But interest. Interesting situation because the stock is obviously washed out here.

I think they get what billion or something like that guy, or you know, as far as remark. But there was also rumors maybe a month or so ago that calm might look to buy intel. But calm actually, rather than declining to comment on the rumor, they said we're not going to consider anything until after the election.

So I just talked about regulation and how this could be a lot more favorable. And then the case that you might make is that intel is really important company here for the future of kind of sovereign I in the lake of manufacturing and everything like that. So talk to me a little bit about how you think the chips act plays out and who do you think are the beneficiaries today? This morning, which is very different.

Let's say yesterday, the intel trade is going to be fascinating over the next few months because to your point, clock on basically said we're going to wait and see what happens on the election front. Well, you know, what's now is happen on the election front. And you know, I thought incorrectly, by the way, there have been a number of reasons to oil on the homeland security front that didn't play out.

But now with the potential of and with the potential sort of this reassuring thing that I think more, more people going to start to talk about, I think intel is a winner. It's up four percent as we're sitting here. I am be honest with you.

I'm surprised it's not double that. I mean, if you had told me again the outcome would be a star as IT was and say, where is intel? I thought the stack would be trade in north to twenty six dollars.

And maybe it's just a matter of time before IT gets there. But if you're looking for trade and by the way, this is not saying that intel is figure out out their business. If you look at the last quarter, IT was not good at all, but just on a number of different metrics, non market related, that worked to intel's favor. I think that's the trade you want to be looking at right now. Yeah and going back .

to terrify IT was interesting. I read something I think he was bend time. In strategical this morning and he was talking about, you know, tarifa um know trump wanted to put tariffs taiwan semiconductor you know this is something that if that were to happen and we were to get to trade war over chips again, this taiwan, not china, this could be a huge problem, right?

If you think about right now, you know invidia sitting the catbird seat as far as pricing is concerned on their chips because there's really no competition if you were thrown terrorist on there for U. S. Buyers of those chips and they are already paying through the nose for those sort ts of things. You know that could be an interesting thing. So again, we're just going to continue to monitor this sort of stuff in a pine as IT comes out over the next few weeks.

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I gotta hit this guy because this is something that I think you and I have been talking about on fast money and our our pods is that if we get into a different regulatory environment as IT release to ema goldin in Morgan stanly are are really in a spot so unique among the banks. So here we are. We're thirty minutes into the trading day.

Golden sex is up nearly eleven percent, eleven percent. Morgan Stanley, up near ten percent. These are the sort of moves in banks that you just do not see.

I mean, right, I mean, especially from all time highs. So let's talk about the J. P.

Morgan, up nearly ten percent also. I mean, so these are the top three investment banks. These are the three investment banks that would benefit most from M.

A, from an, the IPO cycle being reopen. Give me the four one one on how you're thinking about banks. And would you be chasing in this up here?

Well, I wouldn't be chasing IT here. I understand with the markets looking at, I also think there's been a sense that regulation is gonna ort of go away. And these days, we're going to be, once again, I don't know, unburned with the regulations we've seen and once so sort of go away, they are gonna be IT to have this unfeared access to things that they had in prior administrations, and that makes sense.

So I think to a certain extent, that's why the market is bidding these names up and that's why they are putting a different valuation in terms of Price to earnings and Price to book. I get IT. But at a certain point, regardless of what you think about regulation, these things become expensive.

So for example, I look at the command sex now, approaching six hundred dollars new all time. How you mention J. P.

Morgan. I mean, these stocks were relatively time in terms evaluation just a year so ago. They've gotten themselves very expensive. And but quite Frankly, jp Morgans on the top of that list. So I think the bank move today makes sense. I understand what the market is looking at, but I think a certain point, values in a matter, and I think people going to take a long.

hard look at IT today. Let's talk about some ema potential on some things that maybe kind of wake back up a little bit to some of the things that were maybe rumor a couple years ago, maybe some of these copy, darling, but also some of these names that have benefit from, you know just a general AI um in the private markets. One of them is perplexity.

We've had a CEO urban two of us on the pod here is come on fast money a couple times. This is a company that kind of differentiates themselves from ChatGPT and anthrops claude, that they actually use their models within their own application, which they call an answer engine, not a search engine. Interesting company.

I use IT every day. They're raising money right now, supposedly purr. The information will put the article in the showed tes near nine billion dollars raising five hundred million two years ago, they raised at a half a billion. And then I was just skipped up as doubling, double doubling. And I said, do a friend who's a VC in a very successful VC.

After I saw this article, I said, you know that they should sell themselves like almost immediately, like twenty billion dollars, and just kind of walk away because the jury still out on these sorts of models, whether they're going to be, you know, a great use case, whether were going to be able to be monetized. And this was yesterday at like four thirty, and he was like, yeah, but who could do IT? And I kind of had to exclude all the next seven, right? Because we know that never had a lot of regulation headwinds.

So I throughout names like adobe, oracle sales force, which don't seem that logical. But then if you think like oracle cloud business, this is something that would be an interesting bolt on in the light. So we went in twenty four hours from none of them could buy something like this, right, too. okay. Now anybody potentially could maybe not like a meta that has a back.

And and I guess the point here, if you think about IT in a broader sense, is that what would this do, the innovation, if all the big guys start gobble up all small ones, right? Like that's the way I would say because obviously we are A T bed of innovation and a lot of IT has relied on immigration, and that's another issue we're going to get into that right now. If you think about that urban, it's first generation.

He came over here six years ago, I think, to work at deep mind, which was owned by google. That's where he got his training right as far as you know, creating generative eye. So there's a lot of stuff. Tighten your thoughts, guy, on just a shift twenty four hours.

You make great points. And you does IT stifle innovation. Or does that sort of open the flood gates for in innovation, understanding what kind of exit you could have with, and, you know, three or five years? And I think to your point, I think the jury is probably out on that.

But knowing terms of what could happen here, I think you're right to sort of throw out the obvious names and look at some of these sort of secondary in tertiary names, but saw another name in a mix. IBM has not been shy bad acquisition. Remember of the red head deal where they seemingly paid through the nose.

But I want up being I take a life raft or life preserver for them and that's what's we accelerated their growth. That's not out of the realm possibility for company like that. So you right to mention oracle and sales force and adobe author IBM in the mix as well means something is clearly gona happen.

But does IT stifle innovation? Or does IT have a renewed sense of optimism around innovation? I don't know the answer to that, because I think you can make a coach an argument either way. But I think the point you're making about the the obvious five, I think they're out of the mix right now.

Ah you interesting that you bring up the IBM again. It's that too different than my point about oracle you know with a perplexity references, it's a consumer facing product, right? IT would make no sense on the surface for an IBM or oracle to do that except for the fact they want to take market share in this growing public cloud space.

And so to have a property like that, I would make a lot of sense. One thing I just wanted to hit before we get away from the thanks in in you know the IPO market, there's an article, the information again, we'll put this in the shown notes this morning and the article is golbin jp morigi morning standing eye rye to clients as IPO prospects brighten. So this is something that we haven't heard the idea of crypto IPO since late twenty twenty one, early twenty twenty two.

So the fact that that's coming back so guy, talk to me a little bit because you and I I mean, we've spent a lot of time mon crap out since we started these podcasts. I want to say, four and half early five years ago. And for all intensive purposes, almost every major use case that was being described in that last world market has really fAllen by the wayside.

The only thing that really stood the test of time is this idea of the store of value, right? And just go ahead. Look at eat. You know, that was the promise smart contracts and it's all you know tion layer being built on what's massively under perform bitcoin, why there's been no really interesting applications that have come from IT.

So everything we're seeing in the markets right now, all this yolo and stuff and everything like that idea that we're going to see a bunch of cypher, I P. S. Does that make you more bullish or less? bush? Less.

definitely less. But it's not out of the realm of possibility. I think they're a lot at listen, I mean, Michael sellers probably at the top of the list. This is obviously a great day for him. And mr.

Oddly enough, by the way, it's not at an all i'm high the stock but you what's within a whisper of that? It's now a fifty billion dollar company with bitcoin either side of seventy four thousand. I mean, at least today he's looking like a genius but does IT open the flood gates for this? I think yeah probably in the short term, yes, but you know this as well as I do.

When those floodgates are open, you're going to get a lot of drug involved in that as well. And it's gonna not unlike, I think, what we saw Sparks, you know, a few years so ago. So this falls under the category be where what's gonna en over the next sixty nine because for every good company that comes out, there are probably we tend that are not.

I just want to make a couple quick observations before we get out of here. Just kind of look at, I mean, fact set screen. So snap guy is percent read IT down a little bit.

So again, what is that saying? It's saying that x, which, by the way, you know, twitter 3 had marked down。 There was a story out last week.

eighty seven percent.

Down from forty four billion. So all the sun, you start seeing a scenario where you know x can be just unfathered in whatever they want to do in elan. Now you know one of the reasons why you think about why he bought IT, he wanted to create the supermarket b or payments in e commerce goes on and on and on, right?

Well, let's say there is regulating chAllenges to some of that. Will they have all gone a way for all intensive purposes, right? So does that make sense that you would sell snap because you see a resurgent sort .

of twitter make sense to me. If you trying to figure out winners and losers, are you want to sit around and see you know how things shake out for snap? Or do you want to sort to get ahead of the curve standing that at some point you're probably buy a back cheaper? So the best set, the markets making in the very short term and everything that you've talked about the last twenty five minutes make sense in the here and now.

But the question I think you have to ask yourself is, can we take a step back and go to thirty thousand feet and say, okay, is this going to last or this going to be a fleeting thing? I think for some of these, they're going to be fleet. We talked about the banks.

I think it's going to be somewhat fleet. I think the boldness ye on the back of semiconductors through the lens, what we talked about that's gona start to magnify a little bit. I don't think the market is fully taking consideration what can happen there.

So I think there are going to be some winners that are yet to sort of identify themselves. And it's interesting on a day where, again, president electrics seems have a Mandate. You would think the defense talks are training Better.

They're not. So there are so many cross current out there. Some make sense, don't make sense, but I don't think necessarily any of them. We're going to be all that last thing.

last thing. And maybe you can help sort this out for me by baba. Pint out out the care babbit and down only three percent. okay.

So you let just focus on baba is in that we talked about a lot, right? And I felt like from a technical standpoint, from a sentiment standpoint, he was making a barrier to bullish reversal. IT broke out at ninety.

This was when we saw a lot of that stimulus in september, right, that the stimulus by the chinese and I went nearly to one twenty in a straight line over a few weeks. Well, since round tripped a bunch of to that, it's try to get ninety six dollars again. We talked about the break out at ninety helps me make some sense what why would chinese um you know e commerce consumer facing e commerce stocks be trading down on this result?

I think the thought is and again, I don't know anything, but I think the thought is the new administration are going to be much more um difficult in their negotiations with the chinese. So almost by definition of chinese playing from weakness, we're just gona start to, I think, take advantage of those weaknesses. And I think that's what the market looking at.

But the flip side of the coin is if you back them into a corner, what's onna happen? And I don't think the market is taken that leap yet. But I think what IT speaks to is the weakness of china's going to be exposed by the new administration.

That's gona hurt, obviously, their markets that sort of make sense, but went backing a corner what's going to happen? And I think that's going to read the next determent of the trade. So again, there's a lot still as to play out there.

And you know we're talking, you know this markets been open for a half hour. So, so it's very early on. But you know you can start to see how people making their bets.

Last one, byd, which just overtook tesla in evy sales, okay, in china. So it's a local chinese manufacturer back by buffet, by the way, is down almost six percent. Um ribbon, which is obviously a domestic one, is down seven percent here.

Lucy is down a couple percent. X pang is down five percent. That's chinese news. Chinese down three percent. Mean the clear thing here is that you know tesla is going to lose.

right? yes.

Yeah so um just a lot of interesting knock on effects every once in a while I think regular viewers of fast money listeners of on the tape, I know everyone in a while I call you no still domi largely because on a daylight today you'll say, okay I know IT feels great um I know the markets are screaming. No one can see them acting any other way into the close. But give me here for one. One, does this thing stick today? Because, man, if IT doesn't, you know, from all time highs in the major indexes with some of these names that are screaming, that could be, I think, a really seminal moment for this market rally over the last .

call year and half. Yeah I myself, i'm bit of a limb. So we had A S, M, P.

Five hundred traded north of fifty nine hundred. That's the all time high. But as we're sitting here right now, yeah, S N P, that's up about a hundred handles.

I think by the end of the day, you can give at least half of that back, if not more so. IT douthat, up now, twelve hundred points. I think IT probably sifted and maybe up five hundred or so.

And people say that's great. You know that Price action wouldn't particularly good, especially if you have some huge volume in some of those names. But the things to continue to watch, in my opinion, is the bond market. And I think regardless of what the broader market does, I think you are going to see yields continue to go higher. And I think the optimists is gonna yields are going higher because there is a sensitive economy is going to do Better.

I think the other side that coin is yells are going higher because this is going to be more debt and the debt service on needs is gonna at levels where you know the markets are prepared for, which theoretically makes bone yields go higher. So i'm watching obviously, a lot of different things. First and foremost, i'm watching to see a yields continue trade today.

Yeah, if there's one thing that we learn from trump's first administration is that they'll be a whole heck out of uncertainty is not something that you can put you your finger on a kind of through line about how that administration will act towards the whole host of different things.

I think you're write on yields, guy, because again, if you want to sell that, what are you gotta do? You ve got to pay a higher LED for that right in a period of uncertainty that would make more sense. So i'm with you on all that.

I listen. I really appreciate you being here. That was A A kind of interesting ride across a whole host of things in in a very quick manner because everyone's trying to process this stuff very quickly.

And I think a lot of these guesses that you and I are making right now, some were gonna prove true, others are not. But again, uh, you know, stick with us here. okay? Computer, where to try to break IT down for you every week? Guy, I really appreciate you being here two later.

folks.

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