Closing Bell: Stocks, Rates & Risks Rising? 11/15/24
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Walk a closing baLance, go walk and live from post nine here, the new york stock exchange is make a brick out begins with the future of this rally as big earnings loom. Next week will ask our experts, including the warden schools, germ my siecle over the final stretch, what's at stake for the post election pop for stocks? Let's take a look at the score card.

Here was sixty minutes to go in regulation. We've been in the red all day, perhaps to speed your power. Told that gathering in dallas yesterday, you saw IT here alive.

The fed in no rush on cutting rates, yields to the short and moved up on that. We are watching all of the closely today, there you go. Ten year, fourteen, six, two year, though almost four thirty, right?

We're keeping an ion in video as well because IT reports earnings next wednesday. That's gonna big. You'll hear a lot about that IT just take us to our talk of the tape, the run for stocks and rates and where both might go from here. Well, let's welcome in the world schools jermey say go it's nice to see you as always.

welcome back and kids got how concerned .

are you about this back up and rates?

It's not surprising and um because of the strings of the economy, because of a the trump programme um which I think is negative for rates, could be positive for stocks but not positive necessary for rates. Scott, I am looking at the what the the june fed funds futures now said. I mean further looking at the mother of joie for that june meeting.

Two only two cuts are built in for including the december meeting. So we're going to have a cut in december. The market is saying only one cut in the next four meetings to get us to the middle of next year. All over one hundred basis points of cuts have been wiped out of the fed easing process since that uh, september, uh, large fifty basis point .

cut you something yeah.

that's troubles in the market.

Are you good with that? Or you don't really think they needed to overdo IT?

You turn you I look I think I think you know the fed says the long run fed funds rates to nine. Is that way too low? I've been saying that for a long time at somewhere between three and a half and four.

Now we're four point five eight now, so where we still got a little ways to go. But what has to remember that if we are going back to Normal interest rate structures, the ten year on average is between one hundred and one hundred and fifty basis points above the fed funds rate. So even if we get if we get to three and a half to four, that still says the ten years is going to five.

And if trump in x every single tax cut that he wants to, if he puts those tears of sun, then we're talking about potentially higher. So that is a headwind for equities in twenty twenty five. To what .

degree to what degree is that a headwind does IT change your whole forecast? I made twenty .

twenty five. There are a lot of student. There's a lot of very positive things about the product in first of all. Yet the extension now announced that the republicans have taken the house.

I think there's no question that we're gonna an extension of the two thousand seventeen tax cuts, and that's very positive because as we know that the democrats, we're chomping at the bit for raising the corporate tax rate, cutting the couple games, right? I one, none of that, that that is very, very positive. Less regulation is very, very positive.

In general. I think we need a lot of mergers of small midsize banks. We need a lighter hand on other mergers. Although is some ambiguity about whether trump is how entire pro surgery is, I mean but basically that that you know trumpet is the most pro dark market president in our history in the sense that he judges his success or failure as a president more by the stock market than anyone that I ever remember or I ve ever read about. So he's not gonna something purpose that is going to tank the stock market.

Now that doesn't mean that they're not going to be a bar market or that he can prevent a natural no upset downs of the business cycle and unintended consequences and geopolitical events. But i'm saying is that he always keeps one a eye on the stock market. That is a very, very positive factor for the stock market.

But the bond market is concerned about very different things, real growth growing up. That's good for stocks, but actually that means higher interest rates. We still don't know about their fs.

We still don't know you know what is going to one with the deportation and the situation really could rock a major industries. Take a look with the vaccine manufacturer today, kind of out of left field when no one had predicted that, that they know from Victory. Could you take those stocks? So there are still a lot of uncertainties.

I think listen to we've had two years of twenty percent gains that way above the average. Know my feeling is, is that you know we should be sad with a five to ten percent gain in twenty twenty five. Um I I think that the higher interest rates of an optimistic earnings estimates and some of the firms were were talking about twelve thirteen percent and increase for twenty twenty five when they said hitting reality that we won't have another twenty percent in twenty twenty five.

You think there's just too much ambiguity right now on exactly what the new president is going to get done, how quickly. And then you, jack, oppose that, I suppose, against the prospect of higher rates. I mean, at what point do you feel like you've got enough clarity to make what you feel like is a well educated view on what you think stocks can do next year?

Well, we did get some great I think guys, I said, I think at minimum, the twenty seventeen tax cuts can be extended. Now there are other tax cuts, a lot of them that trump is promise they're gonna be much harder. But the market is, I think, sign a relief again, as I said, looks like the corporate tax rate certainly is not going to go up.

I mean, trump is going to try to get IT down further. Whether you succeeds or not, it's certainly good. IT won't go up. Capital gains taxes won't go up. So that uncertainty has certainly been resolved there.

However, the uncertainty concerning turfs and and the potential effects on how hard they go on deportation, how that affects certain industries are quite a bit. Agricultural industries, construction industries, as we know, how's in industries which are already going to be chAllenged by higher interest strates. I don't think the that thirty year more the rates going to go down into twenty, twenty five at all.

So there are still some outstanding uncertainty. We got some certainty, thank goods. We got a process that everyone agrees that trump is a winner.

We don't have that problem. We have the tax cuts to be extended. But that uh certainly doesn't clarify everything. And I think that trump will have the on clarifying everything uh, in the next two or three months okay.

I appreciate your perspective, professor. Stay with me. And let's brought the conversation, if we could, with more guests that any link of high tower advisers, ali flin phillips of over mier woods deficit, nbc contributor, how is great to have you here with us on set what you make of what the professor has said?

Well, first is great to be here. The professor thought, brought up a lot, very good things. Made one thing, even with this week, two thousand and twenty four has been an incredible year.

It's really been so because you've had the soft economic landing, lower interest strates and really solid earnings in both technology and other sectors. So first, we really pause on that. The other thing is um history has our back. If you look at presentation, the time between inauguration days and presentin elections the last fifty years has only been two times on the market spent down, and that was two thousand and two thousand eight. And that was when you are we're in a recession .

in a severe able market. How much you think we've pulled forward though, because the burst was so sudden and big. Now it's cooled off obvious sleep this week, but we did have a pretty large pop off of the result of the election we did.

But to us, that was more for relief rally IT wasn't innett ly endorsement of the new ministrations policies. IT was more than the fact you actually had a fair election. You actually now have a certainty which is good. So from that point of views, we think this pull back, I was quite natural this week again, like the market got a rich or back to something more. But the key thing more than anything is picking your spots, finding great operose going forward where you have trans are not based purely on administration but really turns a long term trans of .

really good companies yeah really .

make those points of view yeah I think I agree with a lot of IT. Um I think that look, the market is digesting what the trump administration what does that mean for growth? What does that mean for inflation? And now you also decide and have a fed that's probably going to be much slower in terms of rate cuts.

Here we go again, right? I mean, I company, we didn't learn our lesson back this past year. When we started in january, everyone was thinking seven cuts.

So so we've just kind of die gest that that all being said, scot, we're still up two percent in november, both the next act to and the S M P. Five hundred. And so you're still having a pretty good month. I think that there is a big this interpretation in terms of the inflation data.

And I think the of the course pi and ppi in in the series is not great, but is because we are growing faster and will take faster growth and a little bit more inflation from an investment point of view any day versus the reverse because that gives companies pricing power and IT also helps the margin story. And if you have amid single digit revenue growth in a two, two and a half percent GDP world and margin expansion, you can get to eight to ten percent earnings growth for this year and also for next year. So I just think we have to just settle down and realize we're growing faster.

We've a little bit more inflation. Maybe the neutral rate is at four and a half percent. We can live with IT because by the way, we have a consumer that just won't quit.

I mean, there was retail sales numbers this morning. If you think think about on a year over year basis running at four point six percent. You had an I S M services number a one about a month ago.

Note near sixty and that this is really a good time for the consumer even in the face of higher inflation. And so I think, yeah, you want to pick your spots for sure. I love that we're seeing the.

Burning out. I mean, the Russell one thousand growth is actually down two percent today. The Russell one thousand values only down forty basis points. And so you are seeing an expansion into participation.

and I like that. I mean, what do you think about that, professor, that you know, rights go up there are going up for the right reason, have a little more inflation, but you're going to get a lot more growth. I mean, we can some would certainly take issue with the notion that the neutral rates at at four and a half, I me that maybe fifty bps heavy to some of the other projections that i've heard, but that neither here nor there happened for ah yeah about the idea that we can tolerate higher rates if it's .

further right reason well agree with the you know seventy one hundred percent about stacks uh stronger real growth is great for stocks um but is a great for bonds no um long term bonds. If stronger real growth brings higher interest rate, again, good for stocks, good for the economy are right, but not good for the bone holders ah so that is know everyone who was no telling me, oh my goodness.

In september we're going to have mortgage race back down and in four and a half five percenters, something not for a long term mortgage, you got an adjustable rate mortgage and that's still gonna go down a little bit. But most americans don't want that. So you know this is you know extreme boxes that we had seen about you know housing because of the fed lowering rates. Um I don't think that, that is looking so favorable now OK.

So so I mean.

we do I think everyone knows how how much construction is done by immigrants are legal and illegal immigrants. How is that a out? That's a big question.

You talk to people in the real state industry um they say, yeah, we need some clarity on that particular issue. I was real important industry. So we need query number things, terrorists, equity on the immigrants we need. We need query on a number of those factors. We got that on some that is very good, but there's, you know, still other questions.

Are we have to answer that? Do we end up in a competitive environment, cash verses stocks? If let just say the professors right maybe don't want to hold bonds given you know rates continue to back up there remain higher for longer.

What about the idea that I mean higher rates gone to be good once again for cash to some. Um but then again, you know, if you have the prospects of a faster growing economy, you still make get some cuts. You're probably going to get cuts. I am the baseline earnings you're going to live up and then stocks can do pretty well.

And one thing is also, you want to have bounce, so you want to have those stocks, which we all knows a great inflation had gever time that's brillant tors are where you create real values and hours of owning high quality stocks. And we go in to the housing sector, which the professor just talked about. But the nice thing is also in her that is good to have some bonds.

I just don't want people load into a four percent that is not a competitive rate over time, but just going into some stocks. So for instance, in the housing sector, IT is one of those cases where we are at a forty year low in terms of turnover. Equating houses is nearly doubles in the two thousand and nine teen.

And so if people be able to tack that and to be able to upgrade that really important asset to us is really critical. And that's something for like a home deeper would do very well that a sherman Williams think about IT was a paint. It's a low cost, high value added thing to be able to upgrade home. And those are source of opportunities. See on the equity side.

def, I mean that that's your your space this year, right? Wasn't wasn't that one of your top ideas?

Yeah, home deepo. It's it's one of my largest positions as well. I mean, can you imagine when we do have a favorable rate environment and mortgage rates do come down, hopefully eventually below six percent with the pent of demand is going to look like? And in the meantime, home depos on an amazing job in terms of profitability and improving their same store sales.

They made an acquisition and S R S. So they're increasing their pro mix. That's good. Think that the evaluation is the only thing that's a little stretched.

But if you believe in a recovery in housing, that means your earnings are depressed. And so I think that this is a great story. And I expect, by the way, next week, I think loads is gonna just fine as well.

And I think right now, you want to own the improvement companies over the builders. The builders have had a great couple of years, but I still look to buy weakness. And something like a dr. Horton, for sure.

professor, are pretty ugly day for mega cap stocks as I look at him here. And we spend the conversation forward towards what's going to happen next wednesday when in video reports in video is down to day, obviously had an incredible runs up, still eight percent or they're about over a month. S I mean, how do you look at what you think they have to deliver? I don't need numbers, but in terms of the degree of which they need to be to make those stocks look like the place you really need to be.

well, we know when you sell thirty five times earnings or or more, there's no room for error. Even matching expectations is not enough. Uh, they have been bringing home the bacon and they have been beating them. I think the A I store is still intact um but again, there is very little room for air and they are also affected by long term interest rates as they are long term assets. These make a cap stacks.

I mean, I think about I mean, even though I think that interrupts are not going down as much on the short end, they will go down money funds that will be going down to the low trees next year. And i'll tell you, divided paying stocks are a lot of them that are three and a half four percent well covered with inflation protection and growth possibilities. And we know how many trillions of dollars you know on the sidelines in those money funds. So there's still gun powder there, I think, to prepare the stacks forward. But I think there are gonna some headwinds of those uncertainties and those higher long term rates have to we have to navigate through stuff.

A new position for you this week was rock well, automation. why?

Yeah so you know i've been on the rehearing theme for over two years now. I think it's attention, lion dollar opportunity. Most of the stocks that I own that you know I own is quanta services.

They're up fifty percent plus year today. We've had a nice run reflecting a lot of this good news. Rockwell is actually down seven percent on the year, one of the best in class companies in the business with a greely strong management team, a new CFO.

By the way, that was a very proven track record in terms of margin expansion and product innovation. Their end markets of bottom ing, they're taking costs out. They have very conservative guidance and easy comes ahead. So I wanted to try to find another, another name in on this theme, but that IT wasn't reflected in the valuation just yet.

okay. I G P ones, given the degree of uncertainty that exists around health care policy in this country, some would you know suggest maybe that anti was up, if you will, um with the expected nomination of ark junior, you still like those stocks. How are you thinking about those stocks because they are on your list.

We do like them because you think about obese is still a global issue and globally, people really want to address IT as we know it's tied to so many other severe health issues and these are finally drugs to battle those things. Um both eli eli novo notice they have first mover advantage. They have huge motes in their business.

They likely buy the drugs that are competing with them. And it's on those cases where they actually have a Better return investment because they don't have to build out marketing infrastructure. They already have that. So particularly with this most recent collection correction.

we really like these companies even with them. What may be a changing calculus. You factor that in, in the way you're thinking about these stocks at all? I mean, some suggesting maybe the group posts are moving as we speak as a relates to not not only these kinds of stocks, but the vaccines makers.

Eta to us is always a great reminder. These companies are around by really smart management teams that can pip IT as we have new policies come to form. So if you look at those long term trends, identify issues that really need to be tackle over time, and you find companies are trying to target that, that choice is a great long term holding IT might be sideways for the next six months. But the key thing is, are creating create value over the next couple decades.

All right, we'll leave IT there. really. Thank you. step. Thank you, professor. When you have your outlook for two twenty five, you give IT to us first.

okay? I mean, that idea will be there. Thank you.

You appreciate you. As always, fresh germy single, let's send IT up a Stevens now for look at the biggest names moving into this friday close high.

He got talent tier heading a record high after the software provider said IT is moving its listing to the nasdaq from the new york stock exchange effective tuesday, november twenty six, at which point you will also be eligible to join the NASA one hundred index entier overtaking vista today to become the top S P. Stock this year.

And bloom energy is on track forward's best day on after announcing a supply agreement with american electric power supplying up to one gig out of fuel cells to power data centers five person or upgrading the doctor overweight, saying the agreement provides proof concept that the company's products can power large scale data centers. Those shares up fifty nine percent. Scott.

I think thank you back shortly. We're just getting started here up. Next star technician jeff to graph is back with us to tell us is navigating the Sunny space ahead of the video. Earnings next week gave us this overall market. You too, we are alive in new york is stock exchange and you watch closing bell on C, N.

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supply as that reading is lowered to day tech, the worst S, N, P, C sector. This has the post election pop pulls back and investors brace for in video earnings next week, let's bring in jeep to grah renaissance macros, chairman and head of technical research. Welcome back. what. What's your message here what you're seeing for let's just say, the rally as IT stands today?

Well, the really is a stands today's Scott. Thanks for help me, first and foremost, little overboard internally in a trend market, not a momentum market. So this move that we've seen after the election didn't change any of our mentem work that would suggest that were in escape velocity.

I think we're a know another leg higher, but I don't think it's again, I don't think it's going to get away from us. That implies that were going to have consolidations. You want to buy those consolidations as they get over soldier as they get to do good support levels.

And I think we're still more in A A signal bias or tilt a few well verses defensive. If I still think that that's the right call, I will say it's tRicky because semiconductors are not really holding up and that's a pretty big cynical sector. So that's our industry groups that one area that's inconsistent with what we're seeing, but i'm still bullish, and I think we're going to be in a decent spot through the into the year, probably into the inaugural. Then will we assess how some of these things have held out?

It's been a really interesting, you know, a view of how semis have traded versus software. For example, the latter of the former down, you say that you want to rotate out of semis broadly. Can you be more specific on on why you think that and how broad yeah look.

I mean, it's it's related performance for us, cat, that's where we draw the line. And so we've seen most the trend conditions in an equal weight relative performance on the semiconductor index for the Russell one thousand, really with the exception of the texas instruments road com. And in video, there's a lot of bad charts there.

That's everything from calm to microchip to um to micron for that matter. So in videos is kind of the exception to the rule, and that always makes us nervous when one stock is swimming against the tide of the entire group, forget the market but want to swim against the time of its own group. That's usually something that we try to avoid in, in, in mass. So we're a little bit cautious on in video probably then that you might otherwise expect even the chart.

I mean, IT is one tide though if if in video delivers a blow out quarter, is that enough enough itself to raise all the other boats?

IT might be. But you your previous guess hit something professional, hit something really important. It's Priced, it's Price for upside.

And so there are high expectations. And that's usually a point particular when you have deterioration in the group that you want to be careful. And that i'm not overly barry shed on the video. I just think IT probably trade closer to one twenty before we all said and done. I would say if we get a good oversold condition in video that might mark the m bottom low for the group.

So actually be kind of exciting for us to see that because they'll usually take out even the leaders by the time the group make some type of so seeing an oversold condition in in video might actually be a cleanse c process, not all that barrel. So I just keep that in mind, but i'm not going to swim against the tide of the group with one name even if IT is a dominant play in A I given the expectations where they are today and you mention software, mean a lot of the software names are improving. They look Better. We think that IT makes a lot of sense to relocate dollars away from some of these deteriorating semi conductor names and look at some of these software names that are starting to break out because they do have good momentum there.

What do you see in the retail charge that make you optimistic there?

Well, know the good news about the overall market, god, is that there are a lot of break out. There are a lot of good looking absolute charts. I can't say on a reliable basis that the retail space is is table pounding by ni means, but at least on an absolute basis of tolling up.

So if you look at the xr t or some type of v tf equivalent or even the industry group, we do see that these names are improving. They appeared to be drafting out. That's what we hope to see.

We'd like to see a little bit more revenue strength here with these names. But obviously, going into the Christmas season, starting to get a little bit of a boost out of these names would be helpful. It's part of the cyclical call that we have. And again, I think that those charts on an absolute basis of fine, i'm hoping to see a little bit more relative performance between now year and the to provide a Better runaway for twenty .

twenty five since health care is a popular topic today for a variety of reasons, some obvious, some maybe not. Um you look at a buy attack where you suggest it's oversold to the point where it's bullish, you think and and how soon?

Like this group has been the pain of our existence for twenty twenty four, we call in our top and try and play for twenty twenty four back a year ago and the biotech were working up until about a month ago, and then they just kind of gave up to go to others haven't really done mug. So it's been a struggle.

I would tell you that the the three year performance risk adjusted performance that we see in the group is as bad as anything we've seen over the last forty five years. Obviously, health care not going away. So I like that set up.

But we broke the relative performance of biotech earlier in the week. That to us is a bad sign of a good sign. I would become a contrarian in that group if we saw accessible tf outflows, if we saw the option positioning in a Better spot.

But we just don't see IT yet. I think there's a lot of concern about this nomination of R, F, K will see if that kind of set some type of low from a sentiment standpoint. There's a lot of a lot of concern around that, but I don't see IT yet.

The numbers that we look at, which is we really wanted see some type of cleaning or washing out of that group. And unfortunately, until we get that, when we see little strength breakdowns, you're Better off to step aside until you see some type of you know more vigorous activity of people trying to depress things to the downside and just giving up on the group. So we're not quite there.

And unfortunately, do you think the nomination expected nomination news is, is the reason for that the way the chart looks like IT does today?

I think there's I certainly think there's some of that. I mean, it's really come to the four here in the last week. So I do think that there's something to that.

It's it's clearly not not the entirety, but it's an easy thing for people to get emotional around and make decisions around. Had a big picture stuff that really doesn't have a long term impact. So those things are always interesting to us.

I mean, we've talked about that before in the show that policy uncertainty is almost always best to be used control. So the more concerned the public about those things, that Better you are to be to be bullish and be on the other side of that. So I don't think that has read fever pitch yet, but that some of watching for us, we go forward.

Good weekend. We will see soon. Thanks, jeff. Thanks, I jeff. To grab up next terf talk, dominating earnings causes us companies prepare for a second drunk term details and industries that could be impacted the most will discuss after the break.

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We are back on the bell the amount of publicly traded companies mentioning their offs on earnings calls as sort recently as you might expect as they gear up for a second trump term. Megan cassella here with more on that developing stories still.

Megan Scott, that's right. We come through the transcripts to get a sense of how much of an issue this is becoming for companies. And with help from C M B C S data team, you can see here the number of S M P five hundred calls where tariff s came up more than double between the second and third quarters this year.

More mansions in q three that in all of last year combined. And executives are talking about a different ways of handling the terrace s shifting production, boosting the basic c manufacturing or rerouting supply chains to minimize their impact. But we also found no shortage of companies talking about passing the cost on to consumers through higher Prices.

And this is just a sample. But all the companies you see here, some auto companies, personal beauty brands, industrial suppliers, consumer goods, all talking about lifting Prices and IT raises questions, Scott, about inflation. But IT also runs counter to what we've heard from the protection of camp, this idea that foreign countries will be the ones to pay the Price. Scott.

meghan, thank you for that. Set up Megan to sea. It's get a closer look down at how those potential terrorist s could impact one key importing business, the wine industry.

Joining me here post nine is U. S, one trade alliance president then ban N, F. welcome.

Thank you, Scott. I mean, it's friday. So people are thinking about this, I suppose. I mean, you have seen this movie before, correct?

Under the house administration, you had twenty five percent terrorists on european and food beverages. So does that experience make a difference in how the industry itself is preparing to deal with the potential of IT? Again.

I think IT really does, but I think it's a learning opportunity both for businesses here in the united states but also for the trumpet administration and the us. Trade representative.

They're starting, we believe, to understand that when they put terf on products, they need to ensure that the damage stays in the target export markets overseas and limit damage on products that are particularly depended upon by small businesses here in the united states like restaurants. So that first round of terrify, which you referenced around the the illegal subsidies to airbus devastate to the us. Restaurant industry. It's a particularly sensitive and complicated business and we're hopefully the administration understands that the next round .

of terrorists need to avoid that. You say it's complicated, so let's explain why. So because i'm not sure everybody understands just what happens from producer to your glass tonight, wherever you you may have IT. So you're french or italian wine producer, for example. Okay, you have an importer who sells to a distributor who sells to a store or a restaurant, is the importer who pays the terf passes IT off to the distributor who then passes IT off to the customer. Do I have that that chain?

correct? You're exactly right. Effectively, this is the dumb party on wine store problem.

There's no such thing as a dumpling on wine store. A french, italian wine producer has to sell IT to A U. S.

importer. The U. S, importer has to sell IT to A U.

S. Distributor, exactly. This is the three tier system of distribution.

And those businesses have to sell IT to U. S. Restaurants and retailers. And because of this, us.

Businesses, mostly small, independently owned, make four dollars and fifty two cents for every dollar they send back to france. This is incredibly different than a whole swap of choices the U. S, U, R will have.

I'd contrast IT, for instance, with, let's say, french fashion goods. A french, a french producer can manufacturer. They can import IT themselves into the united states.

They can set up their own store in north part one, dallas or the gallery and houston, and take a hundred percent of those revenues back to france. So when the us. T R is making choices about what products to tariffs, they have to begin understanding which products damage export markets and which which products damage small business.

Is here. Solve the problem. A glass of cab right tonight, instead of the italian read that I was gonna have.

but it's not so simple. Is IT absolutely not those same us distributors by law, they distribute us domestic producers. So when us wine distributors are damaged by Terry on imported lines, IT means they don't have the financial capacity to bring on new domestic producers. So IT actually hurts.

The sale of U. S. Ones does IT raise the cost of us produced wines.

The real problem is they lose access to market. And this is why you the nap of valley ventnor are against wine tariff s why amErica is against terrify tariff on imported wine due damage to hundreds of thousands of small businesses in the U. S, including domestic .

point producers. So I mean, we're still no obviously feeling i'll be IT not to the extent we were before the the effects of inflation overall and supply chains, things like story's facilities, the cost of storing wine, the importers and then distributors store a lot of wine in in facilities before they reached the retail or the restaurant level. Anyway, how have you seen costs impacted on those looks?

Supply chain has been a disaster. Costs everywhere have risen. Small businesses around the country have been heavily impacted by inflation.

And these are the types of things that the trumpet administration in the U. S. T. R. Is gonna to really consider as they start to implement tariff policies to try to impact discriminate tory trade practices overseas. They can't do IT at the cost of american workers.

You run a merchant here in not far from the stock.

explains correct.

That's anticipate having to spend a lot of time in dc over the next few months.

making your case we do. I mean, the good news is small businesses all over the country are starting to tell their story. And people in congress, I think, are really interested in hearing how important these products are to businesses in their own hometowns.

Will leave IT there. I appreciate you coming. All of us. Thank you. That's been N, F, U, S, one trade alliances president up next. We checked the biggest movers into this friday close after Stevens is back but that.

hey, Scott, one chip stock is getting a big side of diff after outlook. Him up short the name to watch coming up next.

We are almost fifteen minutes with the closing belt back to the of Stevens now for the stocks and she's watching kipper.

It's got alibaba shares are sliding after the after the chinese e commerce giant post and mix q two results earnings beat estimates, but its revenue fell short of expectations amid weak consumer spending in china. Shares are still up about thirteen percent on the year, and applied materials is in the red q 4 beat on the top and bottom line， but outlook for the current quarter fell short of estimates via bank calling IT, a solid report but said the company failed to meet a more optimistic investor bar.

Yes, but thank you. Pips even still ahead. New data showing some serious strength in the retail sector will drill down on those numbers, break down what's to watched for from retailer earnings next week.

It's coming up next. On the up next, we will tell you how president elect trump pick for H. J.

Could impact pharma stock. That and much more inside the marketing. Next, we are now in the closing go markets. Cc ini.

Marks here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day plus and other people s with very latest smooth and farmers today, and there are some big ones and cornea and looking ahead to reach our learnings there out next week. First take the ghost mr. Sand told right here with me, what is what is your view here as we am this week.

mostly relatively orderly, had a retracement back to some pretty obvious levels for the big indexes I would take. Grocery thousand is back below where are open the day after the election. The S P.

Five hundred is really been sitting all day on the pre election highs from the october. So it's one of those. Let's see if this was for real.

Even within that, it's very rotational. You've talking about just a heavy pressure on the familiar mega cap growth leaders of the nasdaq. You know, one third of stocks are up today.

So it's still this market is trying to sort potential winners from losers in the second moment. We know treasury yells are pretty close to where we think they might start to press a little harder on stocks. Maybe they are not there yet that .

what this is about you think .

more than I think it's all part the same mix. yeah. I mean, look, we're pricing out a lot of what the fed was thought to be doing in terms of rate cuts, in terms of degree and pace, but it's happening a long side, you know, Better than expected economic performance and maybe an accelerate to that if policies come true.

So not for bad reasons. You have the U. S. Dollar index up to the very top of its two year range. All that stuff says something very similar. I also think this pull back is probably Better than just kind of uninterpreted sprint momentum chase higher because that was gona start to get unstable based on what some of the best apart of the markets were doing like he .

was heading in that direct. yes. So couple days fast up and right then maybe he took a little bit of the the isle out, which you suggest. Good thing, i'll come back in a minute.

And just a pus is watching stocks today, which which are obviously are moving on the discussion about whether r fk junior is is going to be confirmed as H H. S. secretary.

Exactly he's got. And right now though, i'm hearing a lot of people saying that we need to assume that he will be confirmed and go off of that. And so that's why you're seeing vaccine stocks getting hammer today just across the board.

And there's a lot of anxiety about what will happen, what this will mean for the rest of the pharmaceutical industry, right? H S controls not only of so many different agencies across the board, F A, cdc. And so people are really concerned about the uncertainty that this brings today.

The x pi is done about five percent. And this just speaks to the fact that people don't really know what's going to happen next. IT is early. We have to see exactly um what he would do again if he is confirmed, if he does get that seat. But again, a lot of anxious today OK Angela.

thank you and people's to corney reagan watching retail forest. We have learnings come in next weekend and data today. What do we need to know? Yes.

got you know the total retail sales are strongly than expected, but the core retail cells were actually fell slightly in october from number. And remember, many retailers ors again offered early holiday sales in october this year, so that's in those numbers. Two sales, electronic sores was two point three percent months over month. Online sales jumps slightly, but sales were lower at clothing stores, furniture and sporting good stores.

So when he comes to the big retail reports at ahead next week, i've got a lot walmart certainly looked at as a proxy for the broader consumer home depot that was Better than but is still fighting against high rates deferred big home improvement projects, which is likely gonna be a similar story, will hear from lows next week. T, J, X, it's been a top pic for city. T, D, calvin, hitting all time high ahead of its report over, although of course, marker watchers want to know if this uncertainty that executives has fighting for months now has alleviated maybe at all in the early days of the fourth core now that the election is over and maybe too soon to tell, but we're going to ask those questions anyway.

right? Yeah, we will. Thank you. court. I'll talk to see in court in region, mike said totally invidia next week. Let's go next wednesday. The trade hasn't done well.

What do we think IT hasn't done well. It's been hanging around now really at the levels that with the highs from back in the summer, in june, what I think is fascinating if we didn't have an election to kind of preoccupy ourselves and all these attended issues, I think we've be having a much louder debate about A I and weather, in fact, to to to wall.

I know there's been a lot of this chat self IDE notes you're trying to play one one side of the other, but some folks inside these you training models had been saying, know the next generation is just not been as bigger leap as we expect to or as the other one. Now question is, is that me? You just have to throw more hardware at IT and make sure that you redeem what you've already invested in that would be favorable to NVIDIA.

I think it's going to be trading off of twenty, twenty six demand estimates once we get these numbers on wednesday. Not so much about what the the latest quoter reported, but you know gefter graph was saying overall semis have been a big liability for this market. And the question is the other platforms, right? I mean, you have some of the other the amazons and the microsoft had been very, very a you know how to hard can get out of their own way.

What's your take on what's been happening in the bitcoin and crypt to space? I asked this as coin base two minute warning here. Coin based up another ten percent today. Yeah, it's up fifty six percent in a months and a big portion of that has been since.

And you know Robin hood, too. I mean, what you can know about this frenzy is that volumes have gone through the roof, interest has gone through the roof and coin base, whether, in fact, IT makes all the sense in the world and whether the Price can hold up here of the coin itself. That level of activity is beneficial for coin base.

I thought a hard time getting a clear answer on, okay, what precisely is likely to change in the new administration that makes bitcoin headed higher. That means that the industry can flourish even more. And most of what you hear is, well, the line between fraud and no fraud or something that okay with regulators and not okay is going to move in favorite industry IT doesn't mean that, that suggests Better products, more products, more uses. IT just means as a store of value. And as ohio for just capital.

find out the ultimate deregulation trade. Think about that, right?

Less regulation, clearing the way to do what, right? And if the argument later, that's the point. If the argument is, well, maybe some institutions that have had to help hold their nose and or maybe not get involved because IT seemed like the sec could just wipe IT away yeah that maybe they're back in and they can sustain IT. But now ninety case, an interesting number.

Yeah is ninety wanted a half as we speak? It's another four percent today will go out of decidedly negative, especially for an as deck, which right now is down more than four hundred. That's a loss of greater than two percent today, also two thousand under some good pressure to obviously backed up yells affecting that trade.

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