Closing Bell: Rally Roadblocks vs. Catalysts 11/20/24
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Optimize our guys. Thanks so much. Welcome of the closing bell. I scowled her life from swap impact twenty twenty four, the comfort and sanford cisco. California swaths chief investment strategist lisa saunders is good to join me in just a moment with her outlook for the new year ahead and later will talk to the companies in incoming CEO record as well.

In the meantime, let's show you the score card here with sixty minutes to go in regulation and sixty minutes to go until in video reports. It's critical. Earning stocks are mostly lower the day, although a few sectors like health care, materials and energy have been higher throughout the day.

Loss is not big, but nonetheless, it's a bit of a downer aside from those sectors there. Most mechanics, including a video, are lower today as well for watching yells to as fed government Michelle l booming suggests progress on inflation installed. To talk more about that IT, just take us to our talk of the tape, the road ahead for stocks. Let's welcome in swift chief investment strategist lian anders. Nice see you.

Nice to see you too. Welcome back again the impact.

It's good to be here as always the sock mark OK um your outlook is pretty good, at least in the near term, which you say the momentum still favors the bulls, correct?

IT. Does a momentum as an actual factor has been a dominating. And the good news is I got a lot of questions about doesn't this alarm you because the last time momentum was the dominating as a factor was in the late nineteen nineties.

But the fundamental factors most highly correlated to momentum now are things like strong baLance sheet and a strong key cash low versus in the late nineties. The factor most correlated to momenta was negative earnings. I do worry a bit about the sentiment backlog.

There's a little bit of uh itself that doesn't suggest a problem, but IT does mean that there's some sort of negative catalyst. The pain can be a little bit more severe. So i'd put that sentiment in.

The risk is only you say that because it's picking up a little bit of of steam. Chris eran, who comes on our program often from strategie, says at woody flows started to bubble one of the tactical risks we see percussion for early twenty twenty five sentiment. I mean, there there is a reason why sentiment is positive and there's a reason maybe why sentiment has grown more positive since the election result. Do you feel that and is that justified? And have you changed in any way your view of the markets for the new year as a result of the election?

So I think what what's been characteristic of this market that goes beyond the the election because IT started back in mid july is wearing a backdrop now of much more fierce sector rotations in a relatively condense period times so measured by things like sector dispersion is really kick in into high gear. I think that's likely to continue.

Um and I think increasingly as we get to inauguration in there after, a lot of that will be policy driven terf turban. So I think it's gonna a tRicky environment to try to trade around sectors. I think they'll be more sort of common threads at the factor level then at the sector level.

singles over defensives. In other words, I mean, the things that have been working are gna continue .

to work that yeah, I think momentum will continue to do well. But the rotations at times since miss jelly when this really started, have at times has been into the more traditional defense. You've got a day like today where healthy care at the top of the leader board from a sector perspective, I think we will have these fears.

Security at a time will have money heading back and interest back into the max 7， the mega cap names, but at times, based on maybe sketchiness in terms of an uncertain outlook. Look, regard to policy, you might see some money snuggling more toward those classic defensive areas. So it's not really a broadening out a traditional sense because IT sees fierce wep saw rotations, and I think that continues to be the name of the game, certainly in the first step next year.

Do you think in video tonight without talking about in video as a specific stock, does IT have the potential to either lead us back into the mega caps in a larger way or underscore exactly what you're talking about, the dispersion that's taken place and a movement back to more economically sensitive areas, dust rial s financials and things like.

I think you know, stuck like in videos always be make or brick, just the nature of the popularity. But it's not just in video now seeing huge action of microstrip, gy and plenteous actually performing Better. So IT is still that A I story.

And I think if we can cut to keep the momentum in the numbers that supports that theme with the markets because demand outside of A I and tech is not great. So IT really is an A I story and you have the bill weathers that either allow that to persist or maybe throw a wrinkle in. I don't have an opinion on one in video is going to report I don't cover the stock.

But um I think in terms of the traditional snacks or maybe the ability for manufacturing to rebound, I think that's at the mercy of uncertainty with regard to Terry policy. And obviously, we're not going to get that cleared up until at least the start post inauguration. And we have to remember red that in two thousand and eighteen, the goal, obviously, of tariffs is to boost domestic manufacturing.

But using the icon manufacturing index is a proxy. Once the trade world started, I is a manufacturing industry and I is a manufacturing index crater. Now we're in sort of this low and manufacturing at a low level.

So maybe you don't create from here, but it's hard to envisioned lift in advance of knowing what Terry policy is going to be. And I would apply that to things like capital spending, too. There's just A A pause of businesses are a gate to put. They have been pulled back on the capex on M A activity, and we don't clear up that certainty for a couple months.

What has been your take as you've watched what someone you know characterizes the more speculative parts of the market, those things around cypher, for example, as know, bitcoins at ninety five thousand have really taken off since since the election. That is that, is that a sign of raught y sentiment? Is that a sign of too much speculation? Is IT completely justified because of policy changes that are going .

to happen in the hingson? Well, even on the regulatory side, although we can make an assumption that there's going to be left ric regulation applied to crypto, we don't have the fully answers to that yet. But yeah, that's arguably one of the more fundamental reasons why you've seen that excitement there.

Uh, but IT also, I think is indicative of some raught that's now it's sort of in the cypher space IT. Was there the mean stocks a couple of years ago? And as a sign of frothy sentiment, IT has to be in that potential risk of color. You know, momentum Carries until IT doesn't and the downside of that is more severe than if you don't have that thought. The piece of the of the recipe.

how much of a wild card do you think yields are to wear? The market may go obviously sensitive to movements that, that we've seen. I bring that up because of the headline earlier today from fed governor boman, I thought was about as hawkish as we've heard directly from anybody.

Certainly of that stature write a fed governor where SHE says inflation progress appears to have slowed greater risk to Price stability for fed's Mandate possible. We see a deterioration in in the labor market. I mean, she's she's making the case that she's an independent thinker um on the board. That's pretty hockey, right? So if we're resetting our expectations for rate cuts at a time where we're already having a backup in yields, how much of rescue think that is to the I think I you may know.

I think we're ably talked about this. We've been of the view for a while now that we're in a very different secular error than the great moderation period, an era war. Inflation is likely to be more valuable.

That's not the same thing as saying inflation is high, is going to stay high, but bigger swings and inflation. And I think we're in a secular backstop that looks a little bit more like the thirty years that preceded the great moderation, the period for the mid sixties to the midi ties. And that was a period where bond yields and stock Prices moved inverse to one another, the opposite of what was happened during the great moderation.

That's because bond yields were more connected to what was going on and inflation. So yield moves up, reflecting inflation being let out of the bag, again, negative for equity and vice, vera. So I think yields connected to the growth trajectory without attending concerns about another lift and inflation of the equity market does fine in.

okay. So what you're saying is yields going up for the right reason is good and is acceptable.

Yields going up on the inflation side of things, I think would be a tougher digestion. So it's really what that connectivity is, whether it's the growth connectivity or the inflation connectivity, I think is a driver of the impact that bond als have on equities.

I mean, still is a limit though to which the stock market would accept. Yeah, I think the .

psychological and and maybe they're more psychological and technical. I think you know foreign half on the ten year, next would be four, seven on the ten year ah I think that would probably be some periods of indigestion on the part of the market as we've seen somewhat recently. But but beyond just those short term psychological trigger points, it's that what is what our bond ods connected to which side of the the Operation .

you think the number of rate cuts matters for, for next year to what the stock .

marketing return? I think it's sort of the terminal rate um that that matters. Kathy Jones, who you know my colleague are fixed incomes strategic and I do a podcast and we just taped one early this morning and we got on the subject at least the next speed meeting. And we're both in the pause cap .

for december yeah given .

what we know now. Now we've got important inflation reports between now and then, and we've got another job report between now and that. So but given what we know now, I think there's a case that the fed just takes a step back and says, let's wait.

But again, that needles going to move in terms of things like probabilities based on the fit future market, based on the incoming government. And we've got P C E. We ve got C P.

I, and we've got a job report. so. Tell me what those are going to read. And I could say maybe more definitively that the feds going to move or not.

We will see markets obviously still pricing in december. And then after that, IT feels like it's anybodies guess once you get the turn of the counter, we'll see and we'll talk to many times, i'm sure. Lisa, thanks, lisa.

Sounders joining us here. Bs impact twenty twenty four. We are counting down, of course, two in video results out over time today. Let's send a two Christinia parts levels now for a look at what's to watch for from that report in one hour, nine minutes and a matter of seconds, Christina.

exactly. And what to watch for in videos. Guidance for the january quarter. It's the focus because IT reflects the ramp up in the black world chips as the latest situation of the videos s covered graphic processing chips gp s used in A I systems and what everybody y's talking about and spending money on.

If that number doesn't hit the thirty seven billion dollar consensus, the that tells investors that there are issues with black well shipments. Supply concerns really have been looming over the last few months, and that's also why the stock is pretty much moved sideways just over the last three. But to drill IT down even further, the whisper guidance number, you know the number that shared with clients, that's closer to thirty nine billion dollars last quarter in video, failed to hit that whispers number, and the sock actually fell six percent of following day.

The western number is higher, this time around thirty nine billion, to reflect a rampant black sales and a higher networking max, another source of income for in video. The second important number is gross margins, which are likely to come down as per in videos CFO collect case. The show is expecting about seventy five percent for, and then seventy three percent for, this current quarter is dropped because in video does have to deal with lower yields of black world chips.

You know IT takes little while to wrap up for more complex system. And so overall, you got guidance and gross margins along with color on whether the black world chips will hit full production. Any issues with overheating? We know that, that was a story just two days ago with the information.

And then um if there's a black toe for large language models also known as the scaling law, another debate within the AI world IT sounds really complicated with this quarter could be quote, the least important quarter in two years for NVIDIA as bank amErica puts IT because fundamentals are really understood by a lot of people in the market. Black holes expected to hit full production in the April corner. So coming and then you also have the narrative.

There are other things that are working in the market right now, not just in video, especially post trump. So IT may be boring, as I saw on one note from a numbers perspective, but it'll be important for a greater market impact given the over seven percent weight in the S M. P. Five hundred and and the eight percent weight in the Q Q Q. Scott.

you get a sense, Christina, about the overheating issue that it's much to do about nothing? Or is there is the potential that we are going to be more concerned about a supply issue as a result of that?

So two things. First, uh invidia to damage control. The moment the information article came out with only three courses, they are dell CEO as well.

Coral CEO tweet out that they're excited about the shipments are with some of these ships of art and ships. So showing that in video is going to try to downplay the overheating problem if there is a problem. And then the second part is all of these channel checks that comes from analysts, they're checking out their suppliers.

They are asking where you're seeing overheating. And the vast majority are saying it's not necessarily an issue, especially because the full rap of of these chips are supposed to happen in April, not right now. So they saw a little bit of time or before we may see any type of impact to revenues and official slowdown. So again, the rap is only expected, which is why we're calling this boring right now.

Yeah, alright, good, good insight and perspective there. Christine a, thank you, Christine. A parts and envelope that bring mca methyl now of capital area planning group and in video shareholder Jason's snipes of autism capital advisers.

Both are C, N, B, C contributors. Great to have you both. Obj, not good to first because you're the shareholder here. What are your expectations going in? Are you are you concerned in any way.

No, i'm excited that I mean, one of the things that super interesting to me, this dog, has had seven straight triple plays beat on the top and the bottom. I and raising of the guidance, Christine, is that respecting eighty three percent revenue growth year over year, a double on data centers, almost one hundred percent over a year. So I think IT IT is about the guy going forward.

Again, the whispers number as percent I mentioned is thirty seven billion, and I think they're be above that number, which will be positive for the stock. And I think the market is really leaning into this because there has been obviously a little bit of digestion since the trump liz in the market. And I think going forward, this this could be the next catalyst for the rest of the year.

So i'm excited about the print. I think it'll be sand. I think we'll see our a triple play for for in video.

Yeah let me just ask you about the whisper number because you whenever you talk about a whisper number um IT means that expectations are incredibly high, right? You're not you're not just able to reach the number set by the street. You've got to reach an even higher level, and they've been able to do that, right?

As you said, the triple play you beat on earns, you beat on rev, you beat on guide. But IT shows you that the bar of this company remains especially high. Let's not forget these stocks, a group have up trading like a monolithic stock, is extended itself from the others, which I would say makes the bar even higher.

One hundred percent, guy. I mean, what's what's another interesting note? Know if you remove them from the equal weight semi conductor index, you know, obviously, and videos up one hundred and ninety plus percent, that index is actually down four percent.

You see A S M L A M D land research, obviously down, not trading as well, clearly. So yes, the bar is very, very high for this stock going forward. But you know when we've heard from all the hyper scale throughout this year about the capex spent on AI compute, that's not slowing them.

We continue to see that guide continue to raise in terms of spending and all those belt ways lead back to the video. So that's why I think um this will be a strong quarter. And to Christine, as for I think the next quoter will be even stronger. So that's what we're side about.

When you look at these stocks now, you've deep mega capt yourself for the most far right. You don't own in video when your microsoft, but you one of the few investors who actually come on on our our shows, you know know the whole basket. Why not?

Well, I think a Jason and everyone else has been on the network today has made a very strong bullet case for why and video can continue to go to the moon, right? But I also think you have to consider he mention that all of the spending that's happening in the name, uh, all the spending that's happening in the space from all the hyper scale is some of that is going toward creating chips internally that i'll compete with invidia, right? So the moment that we get a headline and from the microsoft, whoever else that they've successfully created a chip that has the same level of compute power for a half, the Price is more eco friendly b blah. There goes half potentially of in videos markets.

right? How realistic is that to happen in anytime?

I think is very realistic if you consider how much money is being spent by A M, D. In partnership with all of those hype, the skills is talking. You got google on their roster.

You get microsoft on their roster. You, you get amazon their roster. All of those companies are working on separating themselves from being so dependent on in video. And invited is very dependent on four names for hyper scale names.

Let me, let me just erupt the conversation for a moment. We do have some breaking news, are now on the sentencing of the founder of archaic s capital, our steep koc. As that for us, see, what do we learn? Yes, god, a bill, one of archaic s he has been sentenced to eighteen years in prison.

This just happened moments ago in new york, candid done by a judge. The execution was looking for twenty one years in prison. He's only getting eighteen here.

And of course, the defense recommended no jail time on the idea that he would not be every peat defender there. You see him walking into court earlier today, the scot, but eight, eighteen years in prison here for a bill, one of archaic s. Scott, Steve, thank you.

Appreciate the update there. That's Steve covered. Let's get back to our conversation now. I mean, what I said earlier, these stocks are not trading as a group, as a man anymore. They they've differentiated themselves. But how much of the results tonight are gonna dictate how they trade from here forward?

Yeah I don't know that everyone is gonna pin the rest of the mega cap tech names to what in video does is pretty much of four gone. Conclusion among traders that in videos is gonna do well. The absence s market is giving us something like in eight percent. You have either way.

so well realistic .

looking at taiwan semi and everything else we can infer from what we've seen the bread firms we've seen to this point, the whispers numbers you're talking about is probably gonna to the upside. And that probably tells us that somewhere from a one forty four Price point today after I was trading regal north of one fifty five, that to me is an extremely attractive exit point, not necessarily fully from the position, but a place to start timing that position for folks who are literally just trading the omentum, not the people that are holding on to that name. For dear life j.

you have a sensor of the same kind of question because you have an apple, you have amazon, you have a video, as we said, you have microsoft, you have alphabet. What's writing on those stocks tonight?

yes. So I think I think milka makes a great point. And you as well, I think they absolutely do not train as a mod live. Every every one of those company has different idiosyncratic stories to them. And I and of course, I own most them with the exception of meta.

And I do think going for with this new administration, I think part of the story that theme has been playing out has been deregulation and what's going to happen with the doj. Obviously, there was news earlier this week about google and the decoupling of chrome and what that potentially might look like for the stock. You know that's a google story.

There's other stories for the rest of them. So but I do believe you as as large linger models continue to grow and we start to see the second derivative move of software and started to see the use cases, and we've seen somebody for sites move over the last couple of weeks. I do think the hyper scale is do well going forward because I just think that technology A I is still story. I I don't necessarily think they'll see the growth that we have seen over the last two years, but I do think they they deserve a mainstay. Peace in your powerful live going follow.

Now come. What about the rest of market? You know the idea that if there's this new optimism around a new administration, deregulation, more deal making, stronger economic growth, that it's going to be Better for cyclical stocks, the things that have worked are going to continue to work industrial's financial. Some of the other .

areas pretty think I hear that argument that, that kind of heck's back to that chunk trade, right? We talk immediately after the election, all the names that we're going up in the right direction were based on the assumption that deregulation is going to be great for energy and health care and so forth and financials. But I think that more importantly, we need to look at individual names, right?

A name that give you that going to be really important tonight for me personally is going to be polite to right. I think that polo to is realistically gonna have more outside next year, potentially more outside than the video will. I know that's a bold statement. You think i'm crazy to say that.

But the reason that I say that is if you look at an administration that is extremely hostile le to china and you look at how much action there has been with trying to trying to penetrate our important um infrastructure from a cyber defense polo to is going to be very important in helping to protect that. And but I can imagine the federal budget has to increase exponentially. Palau has the highest number of federal contracts right now. All of that annual requiring ing revenue that comes from the fed is gonna flow again to parallel. So I think that a more attractive story than a lot of the others that we're talking about from the incoming administration .

here in this space. You have you, pal. Well, so too.

don't you? I do, I do. And I love everything that welcome. Just say know in terms of the platform platform strategy that they have recently appoint in moving from billing to the annual reoccurring revenue model, I think it's going to be fantastic for the stock is up thirty one percent year to date.

And you know all this talk we're talking about A I and A I can pute. I mean, cyber absolutely going to play a significant role as a relation to all the capacity. Is spending in those those models continuing to grow? We need to protect these models.

And yeah I mean, the new wars we're fighting today, our data wards, right? So cybersecurity continue to play a role there and absolutely agree with the fact that there are space in the government business and the government spending continues to to move forward. Your polo ila will continue to to take that you and appreciate as a result.

guys will leave IT there. Appreciate you very much. Jason. Thank you'll see what in video a delivers mark of my novel talk to again soon. But it's good to see here in person and impact, not a method chip are we're just getting started up next incoming Charles swap CEO rick worster join this here. I'll tell tell us where he seeing opportunities for grow at the company as he gears up to take the home.

I'll join me after this break we are alive in santanu go IT impact twenty twenty four you're watching closing bell will come the backward up to this. Our goal is to empower you to be a Better investing u. James teachings. I was able to learn and become financially independent in my regiment.

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come back. We are alive the day at the swab impact twenty twenty four conference and safran cisco joined now by rick burster, Charles swap s president and incoming CEO. It's nice see you out here.

Nice to see you ve got .

got a lot of people here, got about what forty five hundred attends. What do you really hope to accomplish here, other than having everybody gather in the mosconi .

center wall when we gather here? To me, that feels more like a family reunion than a business conference. Together, our our industry is aligned on making a big difference in the financialization clients, and we gather once a year to to celebrate that and to talk about how we're going to continue the progress in the success we've had in helping millions of everyday america.

Let's talk about how you're going to do that because you're going to take the home about six weeks from wall. How do you think your vision for this company is going to differ .

in any way from his by big shoes to fill? Our company is spent around fifty years and for forty nine of those fifty years we have had two CEO, chuck, Robin and while vetture and when while to over the company, we were eighteen billion dollar market cap company, one trillion of client assets. Today we're one hundred and forty billion dollar company with ten trillion dollars of clan asset. So I think the story here is one of continuity.

Forty three million client broker accounts mean which part of the company do you see as the biggest growth opportunity moving forward?

But we see growth all over the firm. There's a boat market for advice in our country. So supporting independent advisers, we see big opportunity there.

We also seen opportunity to do more for retail clients to help them with their wealth needs, to help them with their lending needs, anything we can do to help a client on their financial journey. That's what we're committed to doing. And when we do as well.

we're onna grow as a company OK. You put that interesting a bull market for advice. You're obviously not the only ones you see that, okay? The landscape is is becoming more competitive and and more crowded.

I spoke earlier with john, bit of of your advisory services, and we talked about the upstarts coming after the incumbent. Like you, Robin hood does IT a deal yesterday. But how do you view that competitive landscape only increasing from here forward? And what does that mean for you?

sure. Well, we invite competition. What we care about is, is the success of the everyday investor and the more competition and more that forces great outcomes for clients.

You know, we ve been in this business since one thousand nine hundred eighty seven. No one has been more consistently committed to the R A community than we have. And and in that time since one thousand and eighty seven, we've seen lots of new entrance.

They come in, they attracted to the growth of the independent channel. But then they realized the platform that we built, the capabilities ties that we have and how much it's gonna take to invest. And then they realize also that we don't charge in the custody fees for all of that. And so often, there's exit. So we've seen a lot of people come in and come out of the industry, but we've been there consistently since one thousand nine .

hundred eighty seven. Let's talk about somebody issues face in the company, at least as as the analyst community on wall street seized. I saw a number of notes out today or recently, which seemed to be still concerning about your cash sorting issues.

Customers who are who cash leet who are moving from lower yielding and um higher yelling accounts for you um to higher you ding accounts works which are not as as profitable for you. Red burn atlin ic today, they reiterate their cell rating. They say they remain cautious on that issue.

Dica bank recently talked about that risk as well. Bank amErica reiterates under perform on on chop, and they all talk about that issue is IT. How big of an issue do you see that for the company going forward? And what do you still need to address to turn some of those negative ratings on your stock in a more positive .

ones at first is are related to cash, the ones helping clients transition from bank sweep to money markets where they can earn higher yield. Is we for last eighteen months, on's rates increased. We have been out there telling our clients to get a higher yielding money. Funds are to go to fix income because ultimately, we want what is best for the client. And if we know we do right by them, we're going going to succeed as a company, helping them achieve their goal.

But you make less money on on that move.

We do make less money on that move, but that we make lots of money across our business. We consistently have forty percent margins from our standpoint. We do see we believe we see of a bottom ing of of cash levels what we want in bank sweep is what's truly transactional cash, what individuals need on a daily day basis to uh for their stock purchases, for whatever they may need that cash for.

We want investment cash to be in a place where can earn the highest held. And we think we've got into the levels where that's relatively and baLance. And what we've seen the last two months is actually our bank sweet baLances grow because we feel like we've bent at those levels and that were .

seeing stability. The issue though is what happens if interest rates remain higher for longer mean yields have obviously backed up, potentially leading some to move to higher yelling accounts.

While our cash p has grown the last couple months and we remain in a high interest rate period at at some point, there's a level of transactional cash the clients need in their account in order to live their life. And in that amount of money is regardless of where rates are. And we believe we're at that position or near that position and and that's that's the behavior we're seeing from clients are .

lesly quicker interviewed a golden chair in CEO, David Solomon today, you said a pretty optimistic on the outlook, deregulation, the idea of doing more deals under a new administration. What's your own view on what twenty twenty five going to hold for the markets with a new trumpet administration?

Well, tell you, we just surveyed our our trading and oriented investors and two thirds of them were bullish on stocks and sixty five percent of them were bullish sh on the economy. So what we hear from our clients and and what we see in the market is optimism for the future.

What about your own view?

All my own view. I listened to lisa. Our business is growing very steadily where number one or number two, in the two fastest growing segments of our industry, we're focused on serving the needs of forty three million client in doing that exceptionally well.

Do you feel like a is consolidation in your in your industry done? And if not, is the environment going to be more conducive to IT under this administration?

why? I don't know that consolidation is done. I I don't think IT likely is I think some of the smaller competitors will likely need to consolidate to chance of competing against some of the big firms because scale and efficiency is really important in our industry, but it's something we continue to lean into as well.

Well, will see what happens in the year. Had read every show your time. Thanks for our next so much. Best of luck to you to begin the year.

You like the helmets s CEO up next we're breaking down what's behind bitcoins, big run and what that might mean for the rest of the cypher space. The bells come and right back here a trap impact. This experienced .

the powers of C, N, B C prose. Best deal of the year. Track your portfolio every at black friday terms and restrictions apply about .

twenty minutes to the closing bell. Bitcoin on a chair, as you know, recently, almost ninety five thousand dollars. Now let's send IT to machen's cigala for more. It's been unbelievable to watch really since election day.

He really has been. Scott, you got bitcoin pushing to yet another record high, this time near ninety five thousand dollars, as wall street launches more ways to bet on bitcoin new options. T, T, E, T, S are going live on the nazi and nicer this week, which is really the big unlock that institutions have been waiting for.

Galaxy digital trading team tells me that the'd observed significant volume in black rocks. I bit etf options was just listed on the nazarene tuesday, with notable trading activity extending out to january twenty twenty seven. That's the midpoint of Donald trumps term, more than eighty percent of options volume.

On day one, we're called orders to buy bitcoin, meaning that investors are expecting further upside to the trade. And blackrock forty four billion dollars spot c coin fund is just the first of the U. S.

Based asset ish worse to offer options. The other providers are setlist on the icy this week. And this is key because creating a new margin framework for bitcoin weaken hetch positions and make leverage bets is how you amplify your returns, which is a big drop built to retail and institutions.

Bitcoins fresh all time high, also hitting as the president elect reportedly considers adding a cyp T O position to the White house, the latest in a string of bullish promises to the industry. We seen inflow to the spot, crack to etf surge since trumps decisive when those pop PC coin funds now collectively holding over one hundred and fifteen billion dollars in A U M. Scott.

we ll see what happens to. It's gonna interesting to watch this between now in the end of the year to see what levels we might be able to reach. mackensen.

Thank you, kanzi. Cigala, with the latest there up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the closed Christine a parts. And evolution is standing by with that, Christina.

Well, this time we have a tale of two retailer, ge target and million sonoma shares, moving an offer of directions once and shoppers are cutting back, says sales are great. Why the difference we .

discuss next or approaching fifteen minutes before the closing bell back to the Christine and now or look at the stocks that she's watching.

What do you say? Well, you have the biggest earnings miss in more than two years with drinking profits and investors are punishing. Target shares are other retailer on track for the third worst day ever after the retailer also cut its forecast heading into the critical holiday season, the company said, despite their lower Prices, people to start spending as much when they shop, and the affordability is still a major concern for consumers.

That's where shares are down twenty two percent. Meantime, million sonoma, though shares are sorry and on track for record clothes after IT reported a beat and lifted its guidance so literally the opposite of target, the home's gid goods retailer said, I saw market share gains and improving sales despite this, quote, difficult environment. Shares of twenty seven percent also tend to mad money to ight for an interview to see a law alber, uh, and later on the evening, six P. M. Esterton got.

we will, we will, Christine, to thank you, Christine. A parts in our still ahead top chip analyst's y has gone is back to breakdown what he's going to be watching for when a video results hit to take them over time. Plus we're onna run you through what you expect from snowfall earnings at the top of the hour as well.

We're back on the is out to this break. I come in up. Next we get to set up for NVIDIA earnings, hitting the in almost thirty minutes, thirty one minutes and thirty seconds are there about start chip analyst day c aska.

Standing by with everything you need to be watching for in that report. Take inside the marking zone. Next, we're now in the closing bell markets, one cnc senior markets commentator, mike and tall, here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. Lus top chip analyst parenti stac recon, or what he is expecting from in videos, report just moments in overtime and seem a body looking ahead, the snowflake also reporting, by the way, in over time mix and tell you first tells which on your mind, as we wait for this big report today.

you know, the broad markets got the S. P. Five hundred is really just been in this orderly, tight little band for four, five days. Honest sly, just waiting for the next incremental thing. Obviously a big one coming after the close.

But as the broad market is kind of just turning and rotating around, trying to stay above the election day close, which is where we are now by a couple of percent, I think there's this a junky type action going on in, in a more specular parts of the market. You look at APP loving, microstrip, gy lemont in a month to day basis, they've doubled on, you know, I will see the crypto excitement, but IT seems as if there is a mimic ation of one part of the market. So you have this speculative juices flowing in. The rest of the tape is just kind of hanging out in a very benign way, just trying to consolidate and wait for the next .

fundamental move. I mean, when you think about what in videos is going to mean what, what are your thoughts on on that?

I mean, mechanically, the market is implying at eight percent point move in reaction to the numbers. That's what the options market says right now at seven percent of the S N P. Mathematically, the eight percent move is material to the overall index.

And I do think IT IT is also about confirming of timeless ines, of rollouts, of next generation. All that stuff is going to get cancelled into the twenty twenty five outlooks, which you've already done to some degree, of the spenders of the investors, the capex sources on all this stuff. So IT matters a lot in the short term.

I think more tactically in the longer term. Meanwhile, outside of the video, S, M, S have had a rough patch. So you just sort of wonder if there's going any coat tails at all on what you might have to say.

No, that's a good point. You may come back in a minute. Let's bring in I aska now star analysts from burns stands good to have you with us on this important day. Most important thing going .

in is what I looked. Everybody is going to be looking at the data center number both in the porter and more important, I think in the guide, that's all this mattered for video. I mean, for for quite a lot like that's what matters build to that number, right? I think you looked to IT at it's the rap of black.

Well, that's supposed to to starting q four people are going to anna see where that isn't importantly like where that can go into the beginning of next year beyond, especially the cross over happens, which be from hopper to blackwell. I think the other thing the people we watching is and that was the issue that kind of hit the stocks last earnings, and they sort of suggested gross margins were taking down a bit into the palast just because of some of these new platforms are launching. They're very complicated.

They're got more high than with memory. They have optimize cost at. And so people want to get some comfort that the gross margins are not going down too much. And that important as you go into next year and more of those platforms ramp that they aren't going down even, even further.

And but in general, let me what's going to drive everything is just what is that data center? Where do they pin the data center number into the end of the earth? And that will sort of drive the exit rate when people start to shape their calling for twenty, twenty five estimates.

Yeah I mean, the estimates that I don't know, the whispers number thirty eight and a half billion dollars maybe. But how significant are you thinking about this overheating story? And how meaningful, if at all, IT might be the own work, the work you you've done on IT yourself, what can you share with us?

IT does not look like IT was meaningful at at all and and looks so that that article came out suggested that there were some overheating issues at the rack level that may potentially cause you know delays down the line down not long after I came out like dAllen, some others actually put out the road announcement, said that they were shipping.

And then there were some news of fort yesterday that suggested that issue needed to work with several quarters ago. So I was old news anyways, you have remembers you're ramping these new classrooms. And again, they're very complex. Things like this will always happening. So the big question was, was at something you know out of the ordinary was something more Normally does seem like IT was more Normal and and again, seems like IT was an issue that was sort of long, long settle anyways that doesn't seem like IT was a problem. I'm not to worry about that.

Okay, we'll see what happens. States I appreciate your time is always the inside coming in and we'll talk in the days ahead and stay. You ask on its a big report. So is snowflake sima working to tell us so it's not forget about this important report tonight?

Yes, all about videos. Got a when snowflake reports earnings and vestas will be looking for two things.

Are more companies migrating their workload into the cloud? And if so, are they willing to pay a premium? Um so in other words, in demand, along with pricing holding up amid competition from the likes of microsoft, snow life has gone from IPO darling to a big under performer in the software sector, prompting its CEO to leave in federal, succeeded by former google adg three, the romsdal I.

The goal now aroma swarm is to convince walls with that snowflake is benefiting from the AI craze. The information reporting today that snowden ke is in talks with OpenAI rial anthropic about getting customer access to with large language models. That would be a vote of confidence with the stocks down about thirty five percent this year going into the print.

Scott will look forward to that one. Two seem thank you. Quick programing note, don't miss my interview tomorrow. altimeters.

Brad gerson, he's going to join me when we're at one market on the half time reported new tomorrow. So that'll be big as well. mike.

Now you think about what's gonna blow this market in either direction. And thought I was interesting at the top of our show to bring things full circle. Is sunder saying, know what? I think a pause in december and then you put the four man headlines on top of that.

And maybe that's more important than anything because rates have backed up. The market spent a little sensitive, to say the least, about that. And now if you're going to start getting a more critical debate in that room about the number of cuts we get in the new year just makes things a lot more interesting.

right? IT does that the more of the data are ambiguous enough in the next few weeks, where IT really does feel as if december is a fifty, fifty years of its implied er, if you start getting fed rhetoric trying to lay the groundwork for a pause, IT does does suggest we're in just this a little bit of a limbo state. It's not so much if the market can handle fewer rate cuts.

We're already doing that. We've already Price that a lot of cuts the markets near highs. But what IT is, is this period of you don't quite know how the policy priorities are gonna set you exactly sure about you know rare yields will go in a um you know less rate cutting environment.

So I do think that IT, this creates a little bit of of a shadow. Again, fourth quarter tailwind should be in place. There really wasn't that much of a of a beyond the initial burst of of a broad election by, but there was a tony rotation under the surface.

So I do think you do have the makings for a little bit of of a rethink happening an ongoing basis. Again, the margin itself isn't doing anything in the way of missteps, are suggesting that the trend is changing. But you know, we already were up at twenty two times earnings and up twenty five percent for the year. So you might need to make positive rather than the absence of negatives are just pure vives and momentum to get us appreciably higher from here.

All right. Well, we will see what happens within vid, obviously. Michael, thank you.

Michael toler, our senior markets commentator. We'll go out mix to me. We will have a nice little move here into the close. And he made, in fact, positive but IT .

all road we doing video, obviously C, N, B, C, that comes lash pro, black friday terms and restrictions apply.