Closing Bell Overtime: Shift4's Jared Isaacman on Earnings, Space Policy Under Trump; Ares Top Private Market Ideas 11/12/24
43:27 Share

That's the regulation. State state global advisors in the world gold council ring the closing about and near stock exchange in select doing the honors of the nasdaq. Well, the reason rally taking a pause at least for today as the S.

M, P. Five hundred ends in the red for the first time since the election a week ago. That's the score card on the wall street with the action is just getting started.

Closing, welcome and closing well over time. I work in red in with john ford, who joins us from washington, D. C. Yeah.

little light off the dome, but but not mine. Well, the doll in the Russell, two thousand. And big under performance today as treasury yields keep getting higher and now investors are awaiting earnings with several big names, including spotify, sky works into the car, carbon and flutter and IT will have instant analysis, of course.

of all those results plus shift 4 payments， founder and co geert isc men breaks down his companies disappinted in quarterly results and how fin tech will fare under president elect trump.

Well, let's get to the market panel. Why I don't we vital knowledge founder adam Chris fully and wilmington intrust head of investment strategy and C, N, B C contribute. Megan shoe, welcome to both of you, Megan.

So the um the major industry mostly lower. A lot of people wondering what a second trump administration is going to bring for equities. You say there are puts and takes. It's unclear. But I wonder particularly what your take is on big tech because whether it's in video and the likely china export restrictions that we we're going to continue to see, whether it's apple, amazon, google that have at times has been in a president trumps cross hairs IT looks like I could be if you know um .

yeah I think you are really describing the dynamic that we have been focused on, which is that a trump two point o economy is probably one you know our overgone message is one of wider distribution of outcome. So potentially higher highs, but also potentially lower lows through some of those risk of policies that you've dimension so well on the network.

As IT relates to technology, I think this is a perfectly example, excuse me, of a sector that kind of cot caught in the cross hairs of those policies. And I think here IT matters magnet de of the policies as well as timing um and when you think about regulation, so a lighter regulatory touch, particularly right now when artificial intelligence is at its really a and a very critical part of the of the technology picture going forward, we think that, that would be helpful for big tech. But then if you move into the latter half of twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, terrorists probably become a little bit more of a focus and their big tech is at risk from retaliation as well as supply change disruptions.

And then overarching, all of that is really the interest rate backdrop, which moved tired today. And we don't see moving meaningly higher from here. I think to see the ten year, you will move much above four and a half percent would require a bigger rerating of growth expectations than we expect.

Um but that would be a headwind to evaluations as well. So overall, we are still constructive on big tech and technology, but I ouldn't be moving too much out in terms of over wait. We think you need to maintain that exposure and keep along term.

uh, time prizing. Now as we've been talking, sky works results have cross the initial move on that is higher. We're not ready with those yet, are we we are of pepper Stevens has those numbers. Pipa.

hey, john e so for sky works, earnings coming in at one of fifty five adjusted, that was three cents ahead of estimates. Revenue at one point zero two billion, that was in line with estimates. Now non gap.

Gross margin for the period was forty six point five percent. That was also in line q one, twenty twenty five revenue guidance was a slightly soft now company did say that A I is poys to ignite a transformative smartphone upgrade cycle, propelling demand. And they said that are there in the early stages of this multi year trend. You see there shares up about two and a half percent. Guys.

alright, thank you. And you fully want to get to you on technology. You don't know if you want to talk about sky works, but i'm curious about some of these marketplaces.

Shop fy had a really strong day, up twenty plus percent. I believe APP love in a is up just about doubled in the past month. Sharp fy gave a big strong holiday forecast.

It's q four tends to be influenced by payment volume. So we've got spotify different from sharp fy coming up this hour and a slightly different space we're going to talk to shift for. What do you see potentially happening here in digital marketplaces and payments that investors ought to be paying attention to?

I think for a lot of these companies, they have such powerful growth tail with that their own most agnostic to the regulatory of the political environment, which is why you know this like this for yield spate. And he saw we can allow them where economic sento groups, these names tend to shine.

They almost take on a utility or stables like characteristic um of being almost a safe haven at this duality to them of being both growth and and say having the same time. Um so I don't think there's a time, I think anxiety politically when IT comes to to tech of this, they are going to be impacted not depending on what happens with M A A policy. Supply chains could be a risk depending on how terp terror shake out. But um I think it's more kind of investors taking a step back and looking at what would the implications be for the estis growth, what the implications going to be more importantly for rates in the inflation. Um as these polices are down.

i'm i'm gna hit the pause button because we've got instant card earnings out in dirge. Bota has those numbers for us. I D hey.

Morgan, stock is volatile in the after hours, is initially up by more than two percent. It's now lower by about six percent. Let me give you the numbers. IT was the beat on the top bottom line guide, and so is the mix, which is probably hiding the stock right now. Uh, E, P, S, of forty two cents versus twenty two cents, expect it's a big beat.

Their revenue of five of eight hundred and fifty two million dollars versus eight hundred and forty four million and expected beat on all of the other matrix from the third quarter of the key ones anyways, including growth, transaction values, orders and adjusted ebata. The q for outlook, like I said, is mixed G T V. That gross transaction volume um is about in line with the midpoint, the midpoint of the streets.

Expectation um is in line a justice about dao a little bit and that is likely what is hitting uh the shares. This is, of course, a measure of profitability. So you see inside card or maple bear shares down more than seven percent now.

Okay, they are to boss, thank you. Spotify earnings around july boson has those numbers, Julia.

spotify missing on the top and bottom line, but we see the stocks shooting higher enough. I was trading health about nine percent that reflecting a gross margin beat. Um and so some mixed expectations, mixed guidance for the fourth quarter.

The companies E P S of a dollar forty five year s sort of aspects of a or seventy two revenues of three point nine nine billion year o short of the four point o two billion year o estimated growth margins though of thirty one point one percent ahead of the companies is forecast and the street account estimate of thirty point two percent months, the active users of six hundred and forty million, also one million more than expected, while pre room subscribers of tune and fifty two million also ahead of estimates. Now for the fourth quarter, the company is guiding to revenue that is short of consensus, but also guiding to monthly active users and premiums, m subscribers as well as margins ahead of estimates. So what we seem to be seeing here are some pricing pressure here.

Some scriber growth is quite solid ahead of estimates for an average revenue per premium user of four, seventy one year is five cent euro cents later estimates. But investors seem to be liking these numbers here, particularly those grows more margins, and we see the stock now up ten percent. Morning back video.

it's a big move for spotify. Julie burson, thank you. I am i'm going to go to you on this because we see two big moves in opposite directions right now with instant art and spotify. I want to get your thoughts.

Yeah, IT looks like responsible. Y you know, a big part of the story for them has been margin expansion, cost control and ongoing premium self growth. And IT looks like the kind of a hit and all three Marks for the quarter.

On the guide, you have to look at details. I think for insect, it's more issue of just this dog had a big wrong elevate and expectations. That doesn't seem like there's any major fundamental issue in quarter or the outlook.

And then for sky works, um know the guidance to december of expectations. One of their big peers query o couple weeks o had very bad guidance. So it's some of her relief that they are also not guiding below for the deeper quarter. Um but I still think some anxiety about uh the overall health of the smart market um of this sportful market and then just share laws and certain devices.

Okay, we've got more earnings to bring you flutter results context brr has those for us. Hi tsa.

Hi there, Morgan. Flutter has a big beat on top and bottom lines. Earnings per share adJusting come in at forty three sense versus the ten cents.

The street expected revenues of three point two billion ahead of the the consensus here. The consensus on revenue was three billion a came minutes three point two four eight billion to be exact. Okay, the key earnings metric adJusting evita up seventy four percent year on year to four hundred and fifty million.

That's one hundred million above consensus. U. S, revenues higher by fifty one percent over last year. U S, eba, a profit rather than the expected loss. In fact, the company is raising full year guided slightly because of its performance internationally in the release.

Further warns that customers have been winning so much money though on nfl games in the fourth or that IT largely eradicates the big wins in the third quarter just off a call here with seo Peter Jackson, who tells me IT wasn't as expensive as IT was for competitors because falls pricing accuracy y is producing margins that are much higher than its competitors. And also this foobar season, he says all of the in game wages that partly action means the volume of bets at peak moments exceeded super bowl action. You can see the shares there are about seven percent. The call start shortly.

All right, context. Thank you. Megan closes out for us my questions about the consumer into you four are just talking about shop fy. They give a bullish guide that had investors in that stock excited up door dash that had a strong quarter on the top and bottom, ines. But you gotta a contrast that with what home deep POS said about consumers stretched by high rates and inter cards, guide was mx. Which ones of these should investors pay attention to expecting whether the consumers is going to continue to have spending power into one, three, two, four?

Yeah, well, that's the hard part, is really taking all of these mix signals and trying to filter out the noise and figure out what we are hearing from the consumer. And our view is that the consumers is holding up well. I certainly has been a continued upside surprise for twenty twenty four.

We do expect some slowing into twenty twenty five, and that's reflected in our estimate for GDP to slow to one point eight percent next year. But consumers are definitely, as we look at the array of different company commentary, being more discernment, not stopping purchases or um really pulling back on activity, just being a little bit more selective, maybe smaller purchase, zed. And I think that is a result of some slowing in labor market as well as wage gains and some reduced access savings, all of that's going to come together so that the consumer is still in good shape but not going to be as much of an upside driver for .

economic growth going forward.

All right, Megan, adam, thanks to you both. And now get your knockings out because cover earnings are out, the stock is pop in. Kate Rogers has the numbers, kate.

Hi jane. Hoping on this strong report for q 3， E P S beat reporting fifteen cents Better than the eleven cents estimated revenues, also a beat here, two hundred and forty four million above the two hundred and thirty four million the street was looking for, adjust that even, but not thirty three and a half million, also above the twenty nine and a half million estimated same store sales.

A big beat for the quarter, up eighteen point one percent, much Better than the up twelve point two percent analysts had estimated on this report, also raising its full year outlook, up from its twenty twenty four guidance given back in August. Now expecting fully outlook of net new cover restaurant openings between fifty six and fifty eight. That's up from fifty four to fifty seven, also projecting same store sales growth range of up twelve to thirteen percent.

That's much Better than the up eight and half to nine and a half percent previously forecasts cov, a restaurant level profit margin now in a range of a twenty four and a half to percent to twenty five percent, slightly above what IT had previously guided and also a guiding for adJusting ebata in the range of one hundred and twenty one million to one hundred and twenty six million, also much higher than the previously given range of one hundred nine million to one hundred and fourteen million. The stock is up just under ten percent now. IT is up over two hundred and thirty percent year to day. It's neck neck with sweet ery actually for the best performer of the year. Pack over you, Morgan are right.

Hey, Rogers, thank you. Now let's turn to see your markets commentator, mike and toy for a broader look at semiconductors. mike?

Yeah, more than you know the video was up today. You see skywards bouncing after results just a little bit ago. But in general, the longer term uptrain in semiconductors is now being called into a little bit of question.

This is a five year of the uh semiconductor e tf the socks, which is market captained ted and ever against the full benefit of in videos move. But you see here, it's been pulling back and it's chAllenging. It's two day average.

This is nothing too extraordinary about that since that averages in an up trend, but IT definitely is not participated in the last little run of of indexes h to new highs. And take a look at the relative performance to the S M P. Five hundred.

And you really go back almost, I don't know, three and a half years or so to early twenty twenty and move first at this level of relative performance for the semis relative to the S M P I. Now what that generally means is you prefer to see semi among the leadership groups. It's not an absolutely crucial thing.

We have some attention being turned to more non tech growth sectors and other signals, but it's definitely worth keeping in mind here. Typically, if you want to have a maximum bolas, few semis ought to be participated. We know the real story between the divergent performance in some of the winners and losers in this group.

Take a look at the market caps of broadcom relative to coal com and experiments in. The reason this is interesting is they all had almost exactly the same market cap about two years ago. And then, of course, broadcom enters into the sweet spot of A I demand and it's added about four hundred billion of market cap. Where is you've had very little added to the likes of texas instruments and crawl on based on their end markets work well.

i'll take a very interesting might. Thank you. Um well, up next ever course, mark mehanna react to spotify results. He tells us what he wants to hear from management when the analyst call begins at the top of the hour. That stock is higher over time, more than seven and half of plus. We're going to discuss the biggest opportunities in the private market right now with areas global head of wealth manager and over times, back into.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back. Accidental petroleum earnings are out. Pippo Stevens has those numbers, pippa. Hey.

we're going to mix quarter here. Four oxi adJusting eps coming in at one dollar. That was twenty six cents of heads of estimates, but revenue was seven point one five a billion, a little bit short of the seven point two three billion that wall street was looking for.

Total production for the quarter was one point four million bells of oil equivalent per day. That was a little bit ahead of estimates. Now the company did say that they saw the highest quarterly Operating cash flow this year during q three and that they've made significant progress in their deliveries ing efforts, achieving nearly ninety percent of their short term and debt reduction target suck up about one percent here.

guys on a pippo. thanks. Well, spotify shares are shooting higher and over time, despite a miss on the top, bottom lines, let's bring in ever core I S ahead of internet research. Mark mahaney, the markets here look good. Mark, tell me what you think i'm particularly interested in, the impact of the strong dollar on this company and the significance of the subscribe beat.

Well, the six subscriber beat was was niche, was solid. IT was somewhat modest though I join, I think, a real outlier here and why the stocks up seven percent as we just got record high gross margins and the guidance is thirty one percent. This is a low gross margin business to begin with, but thirty one percent gross margins as a record high and the guidance temples that it's sustainable.

I E the next quarter, a gross margin guidances kind of roughly in line with this quarter, but that's been the overhang issue. Won spotify shares since their second area since they're offering since since listing, you know what I was five years ago, the business doubled in revenue, but gross margins never moved. The stock didn't work. Then when the girls margins move the stocker key up, more evidence of today. So like we continue to like this star.

So is this a cost cutting story? They've done that to this point, margins and certainly had upside. But i'm curious about the overall gross story here.

Is this an audio netflix? Or do they face some of the same chAllenges that all of the you know content description names that aren't netflix are facing? But on the audio side.

it's a very different pitch than the netflix, very different structural set up. The netflix. Netflix got gross margins almost double what spotify has because they create their own content.

And there isn't this huge consolidation among the you know video contents suppliers are on three major video libraries out there good for all of us in music. However, there are three major labels. And so that's why the girls margins are so much lower.

It's spotify. But over time, I think theyve gotten slightly Better terms from those labels, and they've been able to rolled in more kind of advertising or promotion type of revenues. Look at your artists are label and you wanna break globally the best, the biggest platform out there is spotify, and these artists and labels s are paying to get promoted on spotify.

That's very high margin, a contribution for spotify. So I think that's that's really helped to and then maybe podcasting has really come through. Look at our influential podcasting has become just in this country.

And you know the leading power star globally and in the us is spotify. I don't think they monodist that podcasting platform well enough yet. So that's sort of the upside out there, but i'm very intrigued. It's been a very successful pivot. But this company of the last couple of years, I gave a lot of credibility for that.

I was exactly where I was going with mark was the podcasting business because that does seem like a small collection. A of several that had very, very large followings are really making all the money in the podcasting world. And everybody else hasn't totally figured out how to crack the code and monodist. And I wonder if you think spotify will be the company that does that.

I think they will, but it's primarily the artists. There's a few of those forecasters are making huge amount of money because they're able to reach large audiences because people love their contents. So they got these massive following.

Joe rogan, now the spotify has is the platform is big enough. Now they created the marketplace that's big enough. They no longer need to do these aggressive exclusive distribution deals and pay out in multimillion other contracts to get people on their podcasting platform.

It's already established. So I still think this is a small part of spotify business, you know single digital percent revenue contributor. But I am intrigued by, you know, the power podcasting now any ability for spotify to Better monitise that over time.

I want to buy new growth areas for the company because, look, this is a stock that's gone a hyperbolic over the last twelve months for good reasons. But if you want to buy now, you need to have new Green field opportunities. And I think podcasting is still one of those.

So in light of that, this premium now become a key metric that moves the stock because we had to miss on the top and bottom lines. But we know the premium results for the quarter and the guidance surrounded we're Better than expected. And IT does raise the question at a time where consumers are continuing to tighten their belts and opt for ads supported platforms. On the video dreaming side, the fact that prem premium is growing, yeah.

i've fill a different .

direction by you on that question, which is i'm really intrigued by the opportunity they talked about IT on the earnings call last quarter. It's not in the press release want to hear a managment talk about this quarter, which is what about that super premium offering you mention last quarter? Like eighteen box a month, I may look at two fifty two million subscribers as globally, i'm sure they're five to ten percent.

So we're talking like ten, twenty five million people who would pay twenty dollars for and they love music so much. They have, of course, are people like that who would for something extra, those rapid all together. How do your books unlimited, you know podcast unlimited, music unlimited and maybe some exclusive new um music you get to hear the new whatever album twenty four hours before for everybody else does like I know they're real music die hard people out there.

We all know that. And I think there's a real opportunity for actually spotify to take up pricing over time. So i'm waiting to hear when they get that, when they're able to announce that.

okay. We'll be listening to the call. mark. Thank you for breaking down the result with us.

With the stock higher. Another stocked the tire right now is rocket lab. We've got those earnings out, and there are shooting up eighty and half percent right now. IT was a beat on the top and bottom lines for rocket b earnings, a loss of ten cents per share that was a penny Better than estimates.

Revenue also Better than expected coming into one hundred and five million versus estimates of one hundred and two million ah that represented a fifty five percent increase in cells in terms of the guide and saying adjust that ebadi loss of thirty point nine million dollars is what's expected uh IT looks like for for the current quarter that is Better than estimates adjust to gross margin for the last court, I should say, adjust the gross margin of thirty one point three percent, also Better than estimates for q four. Rocket lab is expecting revenue of one hundred and twenty five million to one hundred and thirty five million. That is also Better than street consensus and sees q four adJusting eba loss of twenty seven to twenty nine million, which is basically in line with expectations.

The company also talking about its electron electron rocket, which is its small rocket, and the fact that they have so far launched twelve and that that's a record for the year with more launches, is expected to go in november and december. Speaking to development of the heavy the medium left neutron rocket in the space systems and that all of those businesses together really propelling IT looks like this guidance that would be a record amount of revenue for the quarter. In q force, you can see shares of fifteen percent. This is a stock that has been soaring triple digits since the start of the year. don.

Yeah lifting off and over time for sure, lab next areas, global hel ahead of wealth management on how the private markets will perform under a second trump administration and where he sees the biggest opportunity. I S right now and check out shares of tyson foods, the big winner, and the S M P five hundred, the meat producer bringing home the bacon or maybe having something to crown about meeting annas fourth quarter estimate, thanks to a huge turn around and its chicken division. And that's partly do to lower feed cost.

You're write that.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc, Jessica ada. Follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Well, come back to over time the post election post election market rally taking a bit of a breather today as investors prepare their portfolios for twenty twenty five in the incoming trump t administration. Our next guests says private markets need to be a part of your allocation. So joining us right here on set as areas wealth management, global head at rosh down, that rosh is great .

to have you welcome.

Very great to be here. Let's start right there. When IT comes making the case for private markets in retail industry portfolios, what is IT?

Well, it's really simple that they're just too large to ignore. And you know the um the democratization of alternatives is is important that it's sort of sets the backdrop. There is more access, is more education.

But fundamentally, the private markets really draw for the public markets in size. If you simply look at the breath there, um there's twenty thousand companies that have over hundred million in revenues, ninety percent of private. And so you really are you really can't invest.

If you're not thinking about the private market, the way we think about IT is it's not an alternative anymore. The private markets have such diversity. That was how we would go to the public markets originally to find a diverse set of opportunities today. It's the private markets that, that provide that diversity.

And we see stock market at record high or hovering right near record high. IT seem like the sixty forty portfolio was working again, finally, the first time in a while, at least for now. So when you do look to the private markets, what's compelling, especially as you do look to twenty, twenty five in a new administration that at least right now seems to be exciting. Animal spirits .

sixty forty narrative is um is increasingly dated. And in our narrative that's one hundred percent of the public markets, zero of the private markets.

We there's day .

trading and then there's wealth management and they're very different things. The private markets really solve several different client issues, durable income lacking today, some sort of .

a defensive .

instrument. And so private credit has has filled that and will continue to be a solution. So many wealthy individuals have really concentrated risk. And so the diversification of secondary strategies is solving that issue. And then tax is a solution that's lacking often and in particularly in the public market is is very hard to have tax sufficient solutions. The private markets do that really well for real estate and infrastructure.

Rosh, thanks so much for being with us. My question has to do with, I guess, the category of wealthy individual. That's maybe not your typical wealth management client, but is now being pitched this private market idea.

I guess my concern for that person, that family is around, around liquidity and transparency. It's going to to be a little bit less than they're used to and just being able to look at an APP and see what the Price of your stockpile folio is, right. So so how much education preparation does there need to be for that potential private .

market investor? As a great question. In fact, the dialogue around liquidity and volatility correlation is driving a significant amount of the flows, the the wealth channel for alternatives. So we find the perfect place to start is to have a conversation around the clients goals and think about what is the liquidity they need. inevitably.

And for decades, retail investors have overpaid for liquidity of ninety percent of their portfolio and liquid assets, and the top financial advisors have to spend an an order mounted time keeping the clients invested during the downturns. So after you've done appropriate liquidity planning, alternatives still will be in the private markets, will still provide great solutions for a higher risk adjusted return. Volatility is another discussion we have all the time where the volatility can be a distraction. Correlation is a is a conversation we have all the time in our education thinking about what's the right construction in a portfolio that addresses the clients goals.

So one of the other things that areas is involved in and has gotten some attention lately, given in the fact that the n felt Green let areas is one of four um firms that is now able to invest in football teams is sports investing. What kind of opportunity is there uh for individual investors through the wealth channel?

What we love talking about sports areas is one of the first to have a dedicated strategy for sports media. And IT was really almost a half thousand years ago around covet where the narrative started to become clear. We all see the demand for live content.

We come in on monday and tuesday talk about sports. We don't talk about much else anymore. And so the media writes the ancillary real estate opportunities.

Everything that goes with sports assets globally is a addressing market in the trillions, and it's one that we think individual investors can now be investing in early. And there are many different ways to do IT. You can do through european and football.

You can do through f one. You can do IT through the nfl, whether you said we're one of the few teams um that is um involved in the the minority stakes. So again, to my comment about correlated assets, the great thing about these sports assets is theyve been growing at you know the mid teens, low amid teens last ten fifteen years.

That's really just an equity opportunity and a majority owned opportunity today in one of these areas is known for as flexible capital. So we can provide an increased amount of debt, can we can expand the the capital structure, and that will create value addition to our history there. So we're excited to go to market with some sports and media strategies in .

the near term. And a very is thanks for joining me here and .

said great to go .

to time now for a cnbc news update with kate Rogers. kate?

Hi, john. Former massachusets air national guard jack to sha has been sentenced to fifteen years in prison for leaking military documents in march. He pleaded, he admitted rather to collecting, classify the military documents and sharing the secrets on the social media platform.

Three former detainees of the notorious above grade prison have been awarded forty two million dollars for their treatment there. A jury today held of Virginia ed, military contractor or responsible for contributing to the detainee's torture and this treatment twenty years ago, the contractor C A C I says that will appeal that decision. And apple and eight twenty four are reportedly in early development on a film about F T X founder and bank man fried. According to multiple outlets, the movie will be written by girl's creator Lindane and based on the Michael Lewis book going infinite, which details .

bankin freeze, rise and form. Roger, thank you. We'll shift four shares slumping up to payments processor miscall streets, three quarter profit and revenue estimates, but up next founder CEO jerd isag man, on whether he is seeing signs of a cutback and consumer spending and more.

Welcome back. Shares of fin tech company at shift war payments closed out the day five percent low after reporting three critter earnings this morning, which showed the company missing wall streets estimates. But joining us now is jared t.

Issac man founder, and CEO. Shift for payments. Jerd is great to have you back on the show.

No, thanks. I'll having back Morgans grapes.

So you did actually post A A record q three and in terms of your results, but are you be the street had a very high bar for you to hurdle IT does seem like narrative full your guidance and specifically volumes or what analysts focused in on. So um I guess what are you seeing right now in the payments processing space, especially across the many industries and and customers that you do serve, whether there is restaurants or hotels and hospitality airlines down and on down the line?

Yeah you know just yesterday, we hit our all time hires. Uh, so i'm not surprised the stock took a little bit of breather. But if you look at our kp eyes, whether it's never revenue, volume rose, profit or eba, they all grew over fifty percent year over year. So honestly, I think when when investors realize that they can annualize q four and realize twenty twenty five is kind of in the bag that that will be back to making new all time high.

So um and and with respect question, you know know how's the consumer holding up where we seeing spending a changes um restaurant certainly soft to a little bit um you had some same source two three um but we've started to see a little bit rebound in doctored hotels are back up to growing same store cells. Um sports entertainment is doing awesome. E comes doing really also, I think these people are not, you know, in a rush to grab for the hundred dollars state dinner .

as much as they used to be. And we've talked about that before. So something else that you did in the last couple of weeks as you launched this new pay with crypto o offering and that enables merchants to accept crypto to currency for both e commerce and also POS systems at a time where we are seeing bitcoin other crypto currencies rally aggressively right now, what do you anticipate in terms of up taken actually seeing a utilitarian use for some of these crypto currencies?

Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, this was this was never a major bet for us, but we've had a small script to innovation center for the last couple years. Um we've got a very big global e commerce customer that I think you know well more and that's moving into all these new countries.

And in those countries know this is a master Carter or not necessarily your primary forms of payments. So I think like the ideas, we always want to invite more payment traffic on our rails. And it's honestly, it's responsible thing to do when you process for is, is much of that.

You know the restaurants, the hotels, the stadiums are shown many different types of customers we touch at this point, offering up a variety of different payment. New geography were again, these in master parties doesn't have the same present. So we announced our group is one of our first beta customers. Uh, blade is going to be another one of the beta. I think largely, i'll be incremental volume on top of the transactions that are .

already taking gertz to ask about international a little bit more. There have been expectations that you would have been up and running in more of those international hotels and restaurants. You say now that in place. And i'm wondering what are the conditions that matter most on the microsite for you to really continue to see demand in those international markets where you've now got that infrastructure set up?

You know, it's a good question. I mean, you know as as I mention, I mean, we grew payment volume well north of fifty percent year over year. So i'd say like we are largely not like our results are not necessarily driven by same store sales growth. I mean, look, you know one percent and two percent here in their same cells has an impact. But largely like when we think about going in the europe, we're talking about taking the same kind of one third share of the restaurant and hotel market that we have here in the us. We've teeter ourselves up really the organic and organic investment that you really drive large scale adoption of, of our rush on hotel and stadium products across europe and and even another markets we mentioned this quarter will be going in australia, new zealand and that that amErica is well in twenty twenty five.

And Jerry, i'm going to ask you a too far here and that is with a second trumpet administration coming in for twenty twenty five, what that could mean what you're anticipating both for your company and for the payments processing space. But also given the fact that last quarter you did make another your second history making space flight, what you expect the policy piece on space look like two, especially with someone like elan musk.

the mix yeah. I mean, look, I think that this new administration coming in is clearly gonna things that are very pro business. And I think remove some of the red tape and regulatory chAllenges across a number of factors, whether it's the M N A front or you you advancing crypto currencies and stable coin. So I mean, the market is clearly responded uh over the you know over the last week that this is probably very good, very good for business um and and I think sheer this position, I incredibly well to take advantage for that of that. You know turning to the face front.

Uh, i'm so excited for what this uh means for space X I mean, you know uh you for you IT, it's almost spent like controversial to give contracts to the company that has the uh the best product, that the lowest cost in basics that almost had to throw money away and alternative dors just to appear not to be too too e on friendly, when really is taxpayers. What we should care about is low. The best product is cost.

Let's let's get a lot of starting links up there and improve connectivity across the world with return amErica and national ots to the move on. The incredibly helpful for the APP. But you know making sure again, american park taxpayer dollars are going to the right place for the most impact. Um right now that's gertie zed men.

Great to have you on. Thank you.

Thanks for CEO shift for which .

john stock ended lower today private half percent, but is still up ten percent in the election.

All right. Well, stocks may be near all time high. The total shareholders yield is approaching record lows. Up next, mic totally looks at whether a turnaround for investor payout ts could be on the horizon. The right that.

Welcome back, mike. Sand toley returns to the look at why the total shareholder yield is approaching record lows. mike?

Yeah, john. So this is really just another sign that the starting point for a future investment returns is a little bit chAllenge versus history. So total shareholder real is just the dividend yield of the stock market plus whatever companies used to buy back their own share.

So buy back plus dividends over time. This goes back to some sixty years from bank of america, and we're pretty much to low into the range largely. That's because the dividend you right now is about one and a quarter percent, but then you have a similar amount added by byblus s, which is our cash kind of by companies into a investor pockets.

But it's still not really enough to to make IT that much of a cushion right here. I knows a lot of excitement about a potential trillion dollars in sharey backs this year, but that's not really that big as as a service to the size of the overall stock market. So where there is the capacity for these payout ts to go up divided, pay out pretty low. Companies have a lot of cash. Maybe that's one of the the more bullish ways of looking at this as well as, of course, uh, more going into companies that already are generous with their, uh, cash distribution plans.

Okay, make tally. Thank you. Up next, all of the overtime earnings movers that need to be on your radar as more analyst calls get set to kick off stay with us.

Welcome back to over time, take a look at shares of rocket companies. That's not the space company rocket lab as rocket company tech company mortgage lender earns were in line company beat revenue expectations. IT said both purchase and refinance market share were up year over year. However, fourth quarter guidance coming in a little light on the top line, those shares down almost nine percent. And over time.

and all right, well, do hetch ones to deliver more alph a history ally with a republican or a democrat in the White house. We're going to break down those numbers next and be sure to scan A Q R code on your screen that's right there right now to register for C N B C delivering alpha investor summer. That's in new york. It's featuring some of the biggest names of wall street.

Going back to overtime tomorrow is cnbc is delivering alpha investor summer in new york. Should hedged funds be cheering the upcoming change in the White house? Well, lesly picker looks at which political party tends to deliver more alpha for that industry, less.

Hey, john, I A hedge's actually generate more alpha under democratic presidents than republican ones on an average annualize spaces. Hedge funds under perform the S P, I D, regardless of who is in the White house. But when it's a democratic administration, the underperformance is about one hundred and eighty basis points.

Where's with republicans? IT is more than three hundred and thirty basis points. This is based on data going back to one thousand nine hundred ninety one, collated by H. R. far. Now if you step out two thousand eight, which was an a Normally in many ways, they tend to under perform, but republicans do get a very slight alpha edge. And the total net asset flows were higher under republican ministrations, then democratic once since one thousand nine hundred ninety one, even though the democrats served six more years in the highest office over that time organ.

this is really fascinating lesly. I mean, IT raises the question, does the hedge fund industry y's performance and flows impact the way that participants are donating to the two political parties?

This a much bigger gap here and and a kind of surprising result. S according to a recent report by open secrets Morgan, hedge plans have been contributing far more to democrats than republicans, despite some high profile G O P donors like kan fin and paul singer. In fact, the twenty four election cycle individuals in the industry donated thirty one million dollars to democratic candidates, well, amount just sixteen million just, uh, went to republican candidates. Of course, the industry is not monolithic, and their donations may have more to do with their personal beliefs than whether they think the president will impact returns and flow skies.

All right, lesly picker, thank you. Looking forward to all the delivering alpha coverage ah. And in the meantime, john, we saw the market take a breather here, but tomorrow, inflations on deck and CPI very much in focus, especially given all the fed speaker getting indeed.

But i'm going to end this hour where I began thinking about shop fy. It's just at such not spotify, which had earnings with shop fy. It's at such an interesting level after this twenty percent game.

Uh, today it's kind of somewhere to where I was at some highs. I think in a twenty twenty one before IT had a bigger pop up above one fifty a share and then came down. So can I continue powering from here in the whole digital economy that IT sort of gotten off sides for a while post cover?

Yeah, it's a huge move for that name to your point shop, ify, spotify, rocket companies, rocket lab. Always lots to talk about here over time. All right. Well, that's going to do IT first here. Fast money begins right now.