Closing Bell Overtime: Shift4's Jared Isaacman on Earnings, Space Policy Under Trump; Ares Top Private Market Ideas 11/12/24
2024/11/12
Closing Bell
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Adam Crisafulli
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Jared Isaacman
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Leslie Picker
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Mark Mahaney
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Megan Shoe
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Mike Santoli
以超过20年的华尔街报道经验，目前担任CNBC高级市场评论员的金融专家。
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Raj Dhanda
Megan Shoe认为特朗普第二任期对股市的影响存在不确定性，大型科技公司将面临政策风险，监管力度和时间点至关重要。利率背景是影响科技股估值的重要因素。
Adam Crisafulli认为特朗普第二任期可能导致经济结果分布更广，高点更高，低点也更低。许多科技公司拥有强大的增长潜力，对监管和政治环境相对不敏感，但供应链风险依然存在。
Mark Mahaney认为Spotify的成功在于利润率扩张、成本控制和持续的付费用户增长；Instacart股价下跌可能是由于预期过高，而非基本面问题；对智能手机市场的整体健康状况以及某些设备的芯片短缺仍存在担忧。消费者支出韧性强于预期，但预计2025年将放缓，消费者正在变得更加谨慎，但并非完全减少支出。
Raj Dhanda认为私人市场规模庞大，不容忽视，已成为投资组合的重要组成部分；私人市场在规模和多样性方面优于公共市场，私人市场不再是替代投资，而是提供了多样化的投资机会；60/40投资组合模式已经过时，私人市场可以解决多种客户问题，特别是提供持续的收入和防御性工具，以及多元化和税务效率高的解决方案；私人市场投资需要对流动性和透明度进行充分的教育和准备，在进行适当的流动性规划后，私人市场仍然可以提供更高的风险调整后回报；体育媒体和相关资产的投资机会巨大，体育资产在过去十到十五年里一直保持着稳定的增长。
Jared Isaacman认为Shift4 Payments的业绩强劲增长，消费者支出存在差异，餐饮业略显疲软，而酒店和体育娱乐业表现强劲；预计特朗普第二任期将有利于商业发展，并减少监管挑战；希望政府在太空项目中优先考虑性价比最高的方案。
Megan Shoe points out the uncertainties of a second Trump administration's impact on the stock market, highlighting the potential risks and benefits for big tech companies. The interest rate environment is a crucial factor influencing tech valuations. Adam Crisafulli suggests that a second Trump term might lead to a wider distribution of economic outcomes, with potentially higher highs and lower lows. Many tech companies possess strong growth potential and are relatively insensitive to regulatory and political environments, but supply chain risks remain. Mark Mahaney emphasizes Spotify's success through margin expansion, cost control, and sustained premium subscriber growth. He attributes Instacart's stock decline to overly high expectations rather than fundamental issues and expresses concerns about the overall health of the smartphone market and chip shortages for certain devices. Consumer spending is proving more resilient than anticipated, but a slowdown is expected in 2025, with consumers becoming more discerning but not necessarily cutting back entirely. Raj Dhanda argues that the private market is too large to ignore, having become a crucial component of investment portfolios. He contrasts the private market's size and diversity with the public market, emphasizing that the private market is no longer an alternative investment but offers diversified opportunities. He deems the 60/40 portfolio model outdated, highlighting the private market's ability to address various client needs, particularly providing consistent income and defensive instruments, as well as diversified and tax-efficient solutions. He stresses the need for thorough education and preparation regarding liquidity and transparency for private market investments, noting that after proper liquidity planning, private markets can still offer higher risk-adjusted returns. He also highlights the significant investment opportunities in sports media and related assets, emphasizing the consistent growth of sports assets over the past decade and a half. Jared Isaacman notes the strong growth of Shift4 Payments' performance, pointing out the variations in consumer spending, with the restaurant sector showing some weakness while hotels and sports entertainment are performing strongly. He anticipates that a second Trump administration will be beneficial for business, reducing regulatory hurdles, and expresses hope that the government will prioritize cost-effectiveness in space programs.
Deep Dive
The discussion explores the potential impact of a second Trump administration on equities, particularly big tech, considering the dynamics of regulatory policies and international trade restrictions.
- A Trump 2.0 economy could see wider distribution of outcomes, potentially leading to higher highs and lower lows.
- Big tech might face challenges from increased regulatory scrutiny and international trade policies.
- A lighter regulatory touch on artificial intelligence could benefit big tech, but timing and specific policies matter.
Shownotes Transcript