Closing Bell: Market Frenzy Fading? 11/18/24
43:03 Share

Squad box tomorrow lifestyle icon Martha Stuart, a wide ranging interview about one hundred book and business empire roadworks CEO on the company's latest safety controls stay ahead of the market school box tomorrow six and to C, N, B, C.

and welcome to closing about mike sent tolly in for Scott walter. This make a break hour begins to with Scott stocks continuing to regroup one week after setting their latest all time high on that post election reflects rally. Please look at the score card with sixty minutes to go in regulation.

Yes, A P five hundred getting a modest lift, but not sixty percent of all stocks trading higher on the day. You see it's up by about four tens of one percent right now. The naznai is facing the upside to start the week up six tens Carried by test apple.

Some of the other crowd favorites of of the national that one hundred you see text up almost four percent little bit of size, and apple of almost two percent. Now we also have a turn about in semi with video trading soft into wednesday's earnings released, but the average chip stock finding some belief that the access D T F right that but a big under performer relative to in video. Now pressure from the bond and currency markets has eased a bit.

The ten year treasury al slipping from recent form on highs. It's down, you see about four point four one percent， the dollar index backing away from the top of a two year range as well on the day. So that's allowing for advance in struggling commodities, crude oil lifting by three percent to start the week again.

That's been depressed ah in the last several weeks in gold is firming after a pretty stiff post election pull back. You sit up one point seven percent on the debt. All that takes us to our talk of the tape with six weeks left in twenty twenty four in the S P, on pace for a second straight twenty percent annual game, how does the risk reward equation break down for the rest of the country year? Let's ask the panel.

New york life investments law in goodman vantage rugs, every sheet eld and invest cos brian love IT they are thank thankfully, with me here and post. Can you see everybody? So learn is a big question of kind of watch change changed how maybe IT has changed how much as the market figured out over the two weeks or so since the election and and where that brings us right now? Because that seems interesting. We're having a little bit of a stop and think moment the last several days.

I'm having a stop and think right moment right now thinking about you just said there are six weeks left in the really hard six weeks in one day. But you're exactly right. The market is trying to decide which of the trump trades to fade in which to follow.

And from our perspective, there's a pretty clear line on this. You follow the trades that are not just supported by potential policy change. We're all gonna going back and forth around what's likely over the next couple of months, maybe couple of quarters, but follow the trades that are related to the underlying economic trends that might be accentuated by that. So these dynamics were seeing in interest strates, in currency, little softer of the top today, but these are the trades that I expect are likely to persist.

So you think that therefore is more upside? Two things like treasury yells and the dollar at this point. And and what does that mean perhaps for equally.

I think we should expect to see inflation and interest strates, in particular, more volatile as well as higher over the next several quarters. And that's because we see not only a growth and pulse from stronger economic data, but the likelihood that we see policy support from the new administration in those areas.

Now in in both cases, those a dollar treasury eds moving higher are chAllenging for equities, not just from evaluations perspective, but also from a real economic activity perspective. Market rates moving higher, no one pays the fed funds rate. Everyone pays some version of the market rate. And so that can be chAllenging to economic activity over time. And I think that's why we've seen some of the injection over the past few days that we've .

seen every it's been fascinating because even on the up days of the last two weeks, IT hasn't been one of these buy everything type of days on downtown. It's a little more mixed rotation going on here and the market trying to separate out groups that are more or less advantaged in the current moment. Where does that bring you as somebody who tries to play both side?

Yes, I think is a very dynamic time because I as lawn was saying from an interesting perspective, if rates don't go down meaningfully, you have a lot of cyclical stocks that are very expensive that have been pricing in meaningful rate cuts over the next year. Yet you also have other sick stacks that are still quite cheap training like there might be a recession. And so I think as the data comes in on those less expensive stocks, that and if the economic backdrops mains benee to potentially a bit positive, there's a lot of opportunity for upside. And yet, if you continue to see where to stay higher, I think IT could be very chAllenging for a areas specifically within housing on in certain industrial that are pricing in a real resurgence of domain next year.

What do you think accounts for that distinction between, okay, some cycles, les the loves and is willing to pay up for and some have been left behind?

Yes, I think those that are considered to have strong industry structures, the market just automatically projects any positivity onto um so for example, people think there structure uh deficit in housing, but actually affordability is what drives housing, right? We would all love to live in a larger .

home in the best neighbor .

od with the biggest yard. So I think that um there is room. But because of this structural argument about housing, housing GTA bit, you have a in industrial and in transportation where there is considered to be strong industrial structure that we've gotten a bid.

But if that doesn't come to play, it's come to formation. It's going to be tougher. And then you have other areas like airlines, but you consider me one of the worst industries ever, right? But we've had a really structural shift in the airline industry that could be very favorable playing now. And so these valuations are still very low.

Interesting, brian. You know we can talk about lot about whether there was a pivot point two weeks ago in various policies or not. But leading up to that point, bond market was under way for a couple of years, up sixty percent.

Earnings were already rising and broadening out. Even the yields were going higher. We were expecting a little bit less than the way that was.

A lot of the stuff that we we feel as if um the election had a lot bearing on. We're already under way. Um what does that mean for you in terms of an investor figuring out if things are played out of this more to yeah.

they were very much underway. And in fact, I created a chart early in the year showing trump, vee bide and for three thousand days, and they were pretty much sitting on top of each other. So everybody who gets all build up around a change in administrations, but you're right, they were sitting right on top of each other.

Now, if you were a member trumped surprise Victory in twenty sixteen, you did initially get to move up in rates. You did get signal als over defensive that faded. And why did that fade really around the fed having to raise rates? And eighteen, but even more so, the uncertainty around the trade war.

My business investment slowed, interest rates came down, defensives outperform. You look back four years later, grow stocks one under trump, grow stocks one under the eight years under brock obama. As so there in lies the rub.

I think what we're all kind of discussing here, it's almost like a warshak test. You see a butterfly, I see a sale boat, right? Some people look at this and say, I see tax cuts and deregulation rates up clinical.

Others all look at this and say, I see fiscal consolidation. I see tabs, a lot of uncertainty, hard to make industrial policy when you don't understand the rules. That's gonna be a waight on economic activity.

So bit of A I was saying I like lawn. I go back to the fundamentals. Leading indicators of the economy are pretty stable, not accelerating.

They are pretty stable. Feds gna lower raise, but not as much as we once hope. Then that's why you're seeing a little bit of a shift back to quality and magic apps here.

And to me, the question isn't so much you let's figure out today what all the policy implications are and what the mix is going to be in. How are bears on the market? But whether really just that hope among a lot of people of relief on taxes, on regulation, more lin, see on ma, like all these things that you can kind of beak in, if IT just makes investors more tolerant evaluations where they are or access a psychological cushion learn. I I think .

there's absolutely a psychological cushion and that's part of what's making professional industry is a little nerve because first of all, were none of these policies have happened yet, right? And so you typically have a little bit of pull back in the election related trades just as the market adapts to, oh, right, maybe six months away from a lot of these these ideas. But also we think about a tax cuts. It's likely that we will see an extension of the individual tax cuts beyond that. Really, truly, who knows?

Not as if the market was carefully pricing in the tax cuts expiring and what that all meant after next year.

exactly. And and then if you think the growth impulse that that brains describing, that's an an extension of something that already exists. So what type of reacclimatise you get from that? Not much. You think about the elements of of trade and terabits, the of revenue that could bring in, not very much.

And you think about the underlying economic environment relative to twenty sixteen, in the last time we had a new trip administration, that was a we hadn't seen inflation very much for fifteen years. Yes, that's not the environment that we're now. And so I think that the A I essentially extended the last cycle by a couple of years, and now a lot is looking a little long in the tooth, but there is some of this signal backdrops.

So it's, I think, potfuls ly. A construction is becoming more and more into focus. This idea that investors, even if they expect a good economic backdrop, are going to have to make some portfolio changes to make this next couple years work.

Every if you look at the areas below the surface where the market has really asserted, it's view that things are going to matter a lot in terms of policy. Health care to the downside, banks to the upside. Those have been really the most persistent. Do those make sense to you? Would you like to push back against either of those?

Certainly, they actually do make sense to me. I mean, I think from that from a banking perspective, the likelihood that basel three is pulled back, I think is a decent certainly, I would expect more m na. I mean, there are some debate about like it's all ema gna go through.

Maybe not, but I think probably a Better envionmental. We've seen know there's always a question around consumer finance. Um will there be more regulations?

If there are more regulations, there's likely to be lotless credit, which would be very bad for the economy. So i'm not sure that would actually happen. So overall.

I do think that time, but the critical issue was flew on day one because said, oh, that lafeu .

caps go away. And I think there very specific things, if if you want the to be good, that the credit system of all the way I did, because you need to be able to fund the default. And then on health care, I also do think that IT makes sense.

I mean, R, F, K really is looking for a new paradigm in both food production and health care that has the potential to really revolutionize the health of this country and have very important economic implications for the current companies that are benefiting from that on probably not to the upside, except for those who would adapt dramatically, but also from an overall economic perspective. Real opportunity for entrepreneurs in healthy food, in nutrition and healthy, more preventative types of medicine know R F K is said for the Price of all the that we would spend on oceanic and cov for the G, L, P, one drugs. On behalf of that, you could give every american a healthy meal three times a day, and every person who needs to lose weight a gym membership.

I think he's actually really serious about trying to promote these policies. And so I would be cautious on companies that could be exposed to this um but from an economics and point, we're spending over thirteen thousand dollars per percent in this country talk about attacks on health care that is a massive to defect to tax and we have the worst health outcomes of all developing countries. So I think that there is really, really a Mandate for change here that's very exciting on but does have important implications for stocks.

But don't you have to, like, go all the way, start with he gets in there in the job?

Yes, yes.

yes too. He finds he can be effective in effecting this change in this massive segment of the economy within a couple of years, yes, and changing the behavior of the person. I mean, that just feels like it's how do you put .

money behind that, right? So I mean, change in the behavior of an average person does take does absolutely take time. But when you have a food supply that is actually talk like you just remove the aspects of that food supply, you can make a difference very quickly. I am i've in my own life seeing the difference of of food on.

I do wonder if you would have the other side of IT being like, actually I was epic is a shortcut to doing a lot of those things.

The R, F.

K does not believe no, I, that in this to general.

yes, yes. So I would say the political will behind this, I think, is very significant. Musk is behind this just as much from recognize is how he got elected. So we've never seen this level of political will behind this type of movement. And to have people in power who can really .

make a difference, right? That's an interesting take because I really do feel as if you know if if Donald t made the list of the reasons got elected, I mature like healthy food is near the top of but I know what you're saying in terms implications of rf k in that.

I mean, why is R, F, K been appointed for health and human?

Because they are.

And that's not only make amErica healthy again to make amErica healthy again.

Brian, you mentioned earlier that you feel like the things that kind of migrated us back to the quality and cap that is interesting. You kind of dichotomy in terms of yet a quick rattly and low quality risky stops, speculative data leverage right after the election. Maybe that's just sort short covering move and a mean reversion move, but you think we're still in that mode where it's like the quality is going to continue to our performance .

that has for a couple of years. I do. And you know typically, you need some type of catalyst unlock the other parts of the market.

Usually what what we've been looking for is the rate cuts and a reacclimatise economic activity. A rate cuts aren't going to be the magnitudes, not going to be as the same as what many had expected. And we'll see what we get on the policy front.

But to your point, these things take time, right? This is not a shovel ready country. We have found out what's the propensity to spend your tax cuts.

So we'll see I wouldn't be surprised if in twenty five, we see fed lowering rates and leading indicators picking up again. But i'd rather see a little bit more evidence of right now. For now, I think it's still favors the higher qualities.

And you interestingly, with regards to sector leadership, IT is always fun to look at the policy platforms of each of the candidates. Are now the incoming administration get a sense of what that means. I'm not sure how often IT plays out precisely the way people think.

One of the examples I used all last year was in twenty sixteen, and everyone thought traditional energy would out perform clean, perform right underwriting. Everyone thought, clean what I perform traditional. So IT does depend on the direction of the economy and what the monetary policy authorities are doing.

You mention that portfolio construction kind of becomes more important. Now along what access is that matter? Is that a us versus rest of the world is right now is a really, really loud consensus that us is going to maintain its advantage? Or you know, stocks, bonds, how do you treat fixed income in a portfolio?

It's all of the above. I mean, for years, we've been talking about an environment where inflation and rates we're likely to be low, higher and potentially a lot more volatile and how that might be an environment where the quality large cap conversation that friends been having is maybe not a winner, right?

Um you have to put together now major mega trend with respect to not just A I but the energy infrastructure that are that are building IT um along side a very different rate and economic environment and concerns about deficit moving forward. That's an environment where with a strong economic backdrop, where credit, I believe, is incredibly healthy, but where duration is not necessarily not at all really our favorite place to take risk because we expect that rate volatility. So credit but short duration credit um if you want to baLance your duration, look at structured credit, look at the municipal curve, which funds a lot of the infrastructure we've been talking about.

Um from an equity market perspective, I agree that as we look forward the next year or two, we're likely to see um moments where economic growth surprises to the upside. We've been saying those. But overall, you're looking at growth likely slowing from a very high base closer to the U.

S. As long term trend. That's an environment where large caps are probably going to outperform over a couple of quarters where the mega cap tech is still an important part of your portfolio. But again, baLances with some of the the credit dynamic that helps bolster when you have A.

A bad sure ever imagine the attention on industry structure and dynamics and also maybe ma gets a longer lease. Are there industries you would look at where you could say, you know what the structure can actually be improved or fixed and therefore is an opportunity or vice version.

So I mean, think you could see more ama in financials in particular, right? All these regional banks kind of potentially rolling up over time. I mean, people talk a lot about biotech, and I think the issues and health care make the large pharmaceutical companies and large biotech companies looking very acquisitive in their activities. But I would say also, you know something that we paid attention to, the industries that have changed because of and so on.

I you have spoken about in the past of the telephonically industry with three major players, and we think much sticker plans that people appreciate due to the proponent of family plans as well as the long runway that they have for rolling out of broadband through fix wireless and through and through through through fiber. So I think like that an industry where ema has really helped you have inexpensive stocks on, and they're not as great sensitive, they're as economically sensitive. So it's nice to have part of the portfolio that deliver a yield around into five percent um or actually more with byblus for all three players. That or you don't have to be constantly worrying about where rates are going now.

Now it's true. It's an interesting combination there. Great conversation. Hit a lot. Thanks a lot. Learn every and brian, let's set over the Christinia part in envelops for a look at the biggest names moving into the close ristal. Hello.

hello, mike. While shares of super maker super micro computer have been getting crushed just over the last month, down over fifty percent of me a list of problems, but you can see the stock of twenty seven percent day on hopes that IT could avoid one of those problems that would be a nasdaq d listings despite an almost twenty percent year to day stock job bear danny's urgent vestals not to overlook rocke shares.

Their new bullish note on the streaming service highlights long term potential in the improving streaming industry. They pumped up or bumped up their Price sugar to ninety box from seventy as well. And that's how you can see shares are up almost seven percent on that note.

right? Good tea. Thank you. I see again in just a moment we are just getting started up next. Government says the song show is here to break down what he's expecting from video earnings this week and what to take for the tech sector in the year ahead. We alive in your sarcastic jar, watching closing bell on C, N, B, C.

Experience power of C N B C prose best deal of the year, track your portfolio from every angle on one optimize platform C C pro c friday terms and restrictions apply.

Tech trying to rebound after the nash tax worst week in two months as investors brace for in video earnings later this week. Our next guess is looking through the volatility and sees more opportunity protect in the year ahead. Sound show is co head of public tech investing at golden sex as management joins me here a post night.

Good to see you. Good to see as well. Um obviously, it's the the event of the week in video numbers. Stock is like backing off just a little bit here. Lot of noise around you know the pacing of blackwell and all the rest of IT, what you read on, on what in bedded expectations are for indeed a and how it's prepared to do yeah sorry.

expectations are four beat for in video. And I think in some ways, the reason why expectations are so high is because the cloud companies have actually given us a video as earnings already, right? It's like fifty percent of every dollar of cap decks is being spent on an NVIDIA GPU cloud. Kep becks went up by nine percent this quarter and aggregate. So we expect very, very high bar for like them beating because that's that's what things, right? And so like you know, the key to watch is going to be around black well, right, black well, the next generation platform and some early indicators around that are very, very positive, and we're going to continue watch that.

So you have this report this morning or overnight about how maybe there's a little bit of a log jam and installations of black. Well, because of overheating issues, we've known this was something that was, you know something had to be figured out yeah at the same time, a bigger picture debate seems to me over the last several weeks happening about whether the pacing of improvement in the AI models is at this point you to justify that much more, let's say, twenty, twenty six levels of further investment.

How is so let me hit on both of them. So like black, well, this is their first four ray and is doing something beyond just semiconductors, right? And so it's not just semi conductors that are selling, but they're selling an entire system solution. So obviously, they're going to be up and downs because this is a relatively new for here for them, but this is one of the best executing companies out there. And we have no doubt there are going to be able to solve the heat disappears issues over time.

And your second question, well about the large language models, how the next generation is really not showing the same to the approve me.

right? So that's the report that we saw an open. It's some ways you could spend that as a positive, right? Because these guys are not .

gona stop trying to improve the words the sun cost policy says we've invested this much even if it's slowing down.

we have to so I think that great big debate in the market right now, right, is like everybodys looking around. We've spent a half a trillion dollars on A I infrastructure and everybody's around saying we're all the applications. Where are the use cases for this thing and what is the and the natural conclusion is that, look, there must be some kind of like slow down coming.

But think I think what people are missing is that these cloud companies are investing for their existential relevance over the next twenty years. Does do you think google or amazon want to be your second or third best large language model out there? yeah. So they're pressing ahead. And I think this question about our life is a good one, but I think there are other factors .

have played right now. At the same time, you've seen this recent burst of our performance of software dams relative to the average semi like non NVIDIA semis. Does that seem like it's sustainable? And and what do you think is behind? yeah.

So I think it's really, really interesting to set up for software, and we were very bullish software as we go into twenty twenty five.

Software has been one of the worst performing sectors over the last couple of years, and it's a combination of higher interest rates, weaker fundamentals and some secular concerns around what A I is going to do the software, right? But we think that the none AI parts of software are really set to, you know, rebound this year. And we saw IT from results like cisco.

Cisco reported positive bookings for the first time. And so you have the AI ecosystem and then you have the non AI ecosystem, and we're actually starting to see positive momentum for the non AI part of the ecosystem. We should read bullishly for a lot .

of software time. Does that mean I mean, I doesn't have to be one of the other, but does that mean that there's gonna be the shadow over other semi for a while, whether is because of trade concerns or just the cycle?

I don't think so. I think it's just really starting point matters, right? Semis have massively outperforms soft as a starting point. They benefit from the build out of this AI infrastructure. And at the margin, there is some soft and some concern. But I think what you're seeing over the last week and you solve one of the biggest rotations software sum is that we've seen in the past kind of twelve, eight months is really just a function of the starting point.

And IT, we're at a moment where a lot of the themes people are most focused on almost seem like they are separate from test rate is about the various policy things. It's about whether the cycle accelerate from here. Terms of the economy, where do you think the bay side is set up in terms of okay, everyone was a little crowded red in yeah seven in the midpoint of the year where there's a lot of enthusiasm.

I think some of your prior gets to talk about A I infrastructure. There's a lot of enthusiasm around that. The stocks have actually been some of the biggest performers. I was on the hill last time talking about giva nova like three months ago. And you know that's been a great stock.

So I think we're continue to see upside in that group, but it's not the kind of enormous upside that we've seen in the past, right? And so we're kind of going back to the max seven. The max seven actually has retreated a little bit during this.

I S very little.

yeah. So like I think there's a little bit of this like enthusiasm around nine, eight, seven stocks, but we're actually started to find more opportunities on the max seven side. And one of the names that we were getting increasingly very bullish on its facebook and meta right now, the market has been very, very focused online.

Who can build this most powerful and strongest model. But ultimately, the markets going to fix state on what models are actually getting used. And lama, like if you look at the fortune five, one thousand companies, lama is being used by nearly forty percent of them. And so you know.

they're winning. They're and they are used internally .

that yeah and exactly. And so like there is actually a tremendous amount momentum. And if you look across the max seven and you say who has the potential to be able to tap into a massive new like a dressed market, we think it's matter.

right? Yeah, I mean, been a been a pretty popular stocks. Y, if I can Carry out from here. Yeah, some. Thanks very much. All right. Up next, the parade of retailer learnings kicks off tomorrow will hear from star retail analyst matt boss with what he'll be watching for walmart, target and more coffee bell. Be right back.

Welcome back getting some crypto o news that just breaking kate runing has that force I K H my so .

we've got a couple of cyphered headlines here. I'm going to start first with report here from the financial times. A Donald rum social media company is in advanced talks to buy backs, that is egypto trading venue you owned by the inter continental exchange, that's the new york stock exchanges parent company as true social does look to expand beyond online conversations, again, this is according to the f the media group here has is owned by president like Donald trump and according to this report is closing in an all share purchase of that cyp to exchanges are citing two people familiar with those talks. We've reached out to both companies.

We can see shares of trump media up more than eight percent, and then back was up as much as forty percent of IT is now halted for voluntier ity. And then separately, while street journal that reporting that president elect trump is meeting with the CEO of crypto exchange coin base that is bright ARM, showing the journal hero exciting people familiar with the matter, they are expected, according to this report, to discuss personal appointments to the second administration. Trump has been an avid bakker of cypher, is showed up at crapo conference and is according to report, talking to grind armstrong about the sec commissioner.

In particular, armstrong g has backed publicly hastor pierce as a potential commissioner. Mike, but a couple headlines to bring you there. We don't see you share to point me with move on that.

But anyway, back you well, we do have big point itself up close to ninety two thousand dollars, up a couple of percent eight. Uh, maybe on some of that as well. So good, good to get that.

I'm sure chicken with you on that a bit later. Now it's a big week for retailers on wall street, walmart, J X, gap and raw stores all getting ready to report results. Turning me out post nine to discuss the set up and his top picks into year and is jp morning matt boss matter to see you?

Great to be back, mike?

So the backdrop is, I mean, I guess the consumer continues to kind to be resilient and consumer confidence levels have gone up a little bit. Election, on the other hand, maybe get some tariff questions. But just more specifically in terms of potential winners and losers this earning season, what has your focus?

yes. So you noted on the resiliency of the consumer. I'd actually make the argument in two thousand and twenty five, the wealth effect is material.

We calculate fifty four trillion in wealth that's been created since twenty nineteen. You have the equity gains, you have housing. And then on top of that, even dynamic such as bitcoin are are important for for the middle income consumer.

It's the low end. Where is you cited? That's where they're still a bit more pressure in terms of the inflationary pressure that remains at peak.

That's where I think the tariff dynamic could bring a wild card to watch but into earnings, its value and convenience of Prices, we think stand very solidly. And we're looking at the global brands. We're looking for global brands with a discount that can compound burking stock. Lululemon would put tapestry in that camp real floor. And so a number of different opportunities.

So those would seem to be obviously beneficiaries of the sort of wealth effect and generally flush consumer. And then when the value the value changes, seems like that been a consistent story for so long. I mean, I look at A T, J, X and IT trades at this premium valuation.

It's two and a half time cells and then coals. Is that like point one times and below two billion or market. Can that just keep diverging in that way?

So what we've coin this as is a selective recession, where again, you have the high income consumer where the dollars are planning, they're being choice for and the low income consumer, that's what's holding back. But what's interesting is nearly fifty percent of consumption is coming from the higher. So that's really the consumer that matters.

That's where that fifty four trillion an opportunity, what's happening that consumers is being choice for. So that consumer is still shopping for value. You're seeing the trade down.

And now I think if you can see stabilization at the lower, that would be the next leg, for example, for off Price retailer or which berlingo in would be your growth story? T, J, X would be your compounder raw stores would be also be your compounder. I wouldn't forget about all these as well on the off Price component more and more in small .

cap burning ton. And maybe it's just like a total outdated conception of IT has been secured red outerware, but there has been .

this weather dynamic work. yes. So near term, we are out with the a preview today on on three q.

The weather is been tough if you're trying to sell out or where it's been. Golf weather nearly every day, nearly every day in september, in october, in the whole country, precise. Now, some outliers.

Again, we actually raise the numbers on burrelles ton into the print coming up. Abc, roby, I think, is setting up for a beat. As as you noted calls, we took numbers down.

Bath and body works, we took numbers down. So I think it's a real mix bag with winners and losers. That's for the third quarter.

Now onto the fourth quarter. Again, I go back to some of these macro uh these macro o factors. And to me, I actually think hot is gonna be real bust or modeling two to three percent across the peril.

That's basically back to prepare demise. And that's what I think we now have this set up is were Normalized. You have the brick modern relative to e commerce growth that's back to Normalize. And what matters going forward as as you said, consumer confidence with now the election behind us and what do some of these drivers look like for both the high and the low incomes? Twenty five.

we have heard plenty of commentary about some retailers trying to get ahead of potential terf impact. Is that gonna start to be material in one direction or another in terms of a pull forward or anything in the next few months.

So it's a great point across our coverage. China exposure on the sourcing side is doing roughly seven hundred basis points in the last four years. So a number of retailers and brands across our coverage have really moved their feet in anticipation of this potential outcome.

Now looking forward to me, IT all comes down depressing power. So as I look across the space, athletic, active with innovation, handbags and accessories or you can really illustrate value as well as quality. And then I think looking at pricing that you've taken in the us, a number of brands have really been on this value spectrum. And so I think in a scenario, so if terrify do in fact happen as are being proposed, I think what you'd want to avoid would be companies is battling on Price, a companies with a quality value perception today. I think that there is meaningful opportunity Price increases as long as you can back IT up with .

I you mentioned luu and I I assume that kind of covers a lot of those things you mentioned in there. But I guess you feel as if whatever competitive issues have been discounted.

I think the real key is if you go back eighteen months ago, their creative designer passed away. They took a very conservative posture with newness as a result. That's what you see on the floor today as the calendar turns into early twenty five, I think give a catalyst with news.

You have a catalyst in addition on sizing and then the innovation rams as well as the marketing. I think you're already starting to see IT in the fourth quarter. I think the inflection for the return to growth in north amErica is in the front half of twenty five and then IT scales into the back half of twenty five and into twenty six. Competition, to your point, is fierce, but I think lulu is still a winner multiyear. interesting.

Yeah, we're shown that, that chart looks like I would have some room to run if if IT worked out. Mac.

good to see. Thank you. Great to be. Ond right.

IT up next, we're tracked in the biggest movers as we head into the close, Christina standing by with the cyril.

Well, we have an activist investor winning board seats at a healthcare giant, and the N. B. A has settled its legal fight with a media company. Details on that new deal next.

Less than sixty minutes told the closing file. Let's get back to stina for a look at the key stocks to watch.

thanks. Well, cbs shares popping today after I start a deal with activist investor gen view capital for four board seats that comes after months of pressure from investors to boost shareholder value. Glenvoie C E O Larry Robins, who will get one of those seats told clock on the street earlier today, the company has to reverse losses from its medical advantage business. Listening in.

we think that the board members that are joining, particularly guy lesly and dug, bring tremendous Operating experience, tremendous health care experience and can be helpful as the board unifies in order to try to improve the execution on this phenomenon.

Lection Warner brothers discovery, also in the Green today after I reached a settlement with the N B A over a breach T V contract, the T, N, T parent will not receive a package of light games in the us. Starting next season, but will receive some international rights and free access to those highlights. You can see shares up almost three percent like cristino.

Thank you. Still ahead, Robin hood stocks soaring. We'll tell you what's behind that big bounce. It's coming up on about.

We are now in a closing bell market zone. Robin hood hitting a three year high today. Kate roney has more on that move. But to your boss on a good news for tesla as taking down uber shares epic events on the high profile CBA pic, pushing some of the energy names higher OK. Quite a move in Robin hood here in this analysis.

Yeah, make up about ten percent today. It's been continuing this post election rally. We've seen in Robin hood that anal is upgrade though, as imagine appears to be the driver today.

So you had need them upgrading. Roberta, do a ye about forty percent upside baked into that court today over their riding. Robin hood is positioned to be a major beneficiary. They say, a more positive regulation within the crypto space while emerging as a leader in the equity and options offering. They also point out the Robin hood has had a kind of play IT safe on some of the product offerings to try to avoid enforcement action from the c, but under a new S, C, C chair with president like down on try out that could allow the burgage firm to launch products a bit faster without fear of retribution. They were issued a wells notice by gar and ciller's encrypt o, in particular, that has been reported also that dan gallagher, whose Robin is chief legal officer, former S, C, C, commissioner, is now leading the short list for trumps sec chair of stuff already up about one eighty hundred, eighty percent so hard this year by yeah k.

In fact, the chart since the typo is extraordinary this point. We mentioned that the three year hie, of course, I did trade much higher in that initial birth of enthusiasm about me. Mean stops and encrypt open. All the you've laid out there really does underscore that it's basically a crypto proxy. Now as much as Robin who who talks about retirement, I said and all the rest of IT, that seems to be how IT trades .

one hundred person, mike, it's been interesting to watch sort the jack's position between some of the product for is whether it's options and derivatives and then getting into into a sort of an interactive brokers side of the business. And the more professional that kind of boring side of the business, we talked about this a bit then looking a little bit more like a bank.

While as you said, they are really a high growth, almost mean stock tide name at this point. You've got clipper. You've got D J, T. Really picking up in some of the voluntier ity. That's really what some folks have been chasing and you see in the chart. And if you as imagine ince the IPO, it's really IT went through a search of the high during the pandemic in game shop, interest rates started to go up and IT tells play the story .

if you came out there, yeah, it's A A high volatility play on other high volatility place, essentially a kate, I thank you. Da uber pretty high volume cell off today.

yes. And you know what? This isn't a new story, but i'll tell IT to through a stockpile, look at uber and tasia share performance over the last few months and especially since the end of october, they really moved in opposite directions, largely in this idea that a robot taxi fleet from tesla would bypass the existing ride chair apps and come for their customers with self driving cars.

About a regulatory landscape is thought that I could speed up that disruption. Still, though, IT is a big stretch. Even if there is more favorable federal framework, tesla still needs proven technology, and its fsd software so far from fully autonomists like the bigger may be less appreciated.

A threat to uber. And left is way more, which is right now delivering over one hundred and fifty thousand paid driverless rides per week. Markets like 3， Francesco and ali. Yes, we mos also pernent with uber in its next expansion markets, Austin at atlantic. But IT is not clear that we o needs a platform vers using its own, which again IT is doing very successfully here and severances go on expanding very quickly.

I really is fascinating um deep because right now in uber, of course, is a solid profitable company. This is an eight billion dollars swing lower in market cap based on these things that may happen way down the road.

Well, the tesla may happen weight down the road. We move bal taxi fleet even though it's seven hundred vehicles, but they're delivering one hundred and fifty thousand rights per week. So that is the clear and present threat.

The bull case is that uber lift could be fleet managers and that these rebel taxes would sit on top of these apps. But like I remember when we weren't like you to say that they needed to create the APP, I mean, wo has been able to do so just fine here in santana goes. So it's still this kind of pushful. We don't know where it's going to go, but I say the threats already here with me.

Yeah, that's a good point. And so you know markets questioning that first mover advantage. Thank you very much to pepper. We have some some personal moves for the department of energy that's right.

making we are seeing shares of two energy stocks jumping after present elect trump s nomination of show executive Chris right for energy secretary. He's the founder and C E, O of oil field services company liberty energy and also sits on the board of directors of oko. That's the small modular nuclear reactor company that's backed by sam altman, right, is aligned with trumps call to increase fossil fuel production.

And the executive has said, quote, there is no climate crisis and we're not in the midst of an energy transition. Now energy is the top S P sector today, and every component is in the Green LED to the outside by E, Q, T, diamond back and how a burton, one of the immediate actions could be a reversal of the pause on new allergy permits. But beyond that, the permanent reform the industry is seeking isn't directly controlled by the deal.

We, but still the energy secretary has an outsized role in communicating the U. S. As energy policy and can also make recommendation so that mike is part of the reason why we're seeing this response in oil and .

gas docks and pepper with there be a kind of a mirror image effect on you know that the alternative energy plays obviously has been some move the suggestion calling back some of the the Green energy type money given rights stated suspicion of of that side of things.

So that is definitely open question here, and it's interesting about right, is that liberty energy has not been investing in things like direct air, air capture and carbon captures that other majors like like show you know axon, chavez and oxy have all invested. So they don't have the same you know skin in the game as IT where which just speak to a little bit of a write thinking for the industry.

But on the flip side, a lot of these renewable projects are now economics driven. And so there's a lot that say that they while the incentives are nice to have at this point, IT is not a need to have. The other thing is the most impact for incentives, the I T C, in the PC. Those were in existence before the inflation reduction or ng. So everyone I speak to says that .

those look pretty safe and certainly not under the direct command of the energy secretary. An in any I Peter, thank you very much. All right, as we had about thirty seconds till the clothes you see, the S M P five hundred der, it's up a little more than one third of one percent fairly.

Now arrange all day to down just below the flat line back is about six tenth of one percent. thanks. So hard to move.

Text, you can see a big top in oil. A T, A bit of a dollar has to give to humility. I going to do IT closed you about when out something over time with more than great and.