Closing Bell: Is the Trend Still Your Friend? 11/22/24
42:09 Share

And look too closely, but I like sank, told the info scot Walker. This makeup break hour begins with the study, somewhat stealthy rally Carrying into the end of a winning week. Here's a score card with sixty minutes to go in regulation.

The vents. Mark S. M, P, five, modestly positive, be seated up a little more than a quarter of one percent on the day, though that is being restrained by some more sluggishness in some of the mega roads cks out there in video.

In fact, the biggest drag on the index falling, let's see, about three percent on the day and is now down below the closing Price from before the company reported strong results to raise guidance on wednesday. The w industrials, they are out performing. They are up about eight ten of one percent actually.

So is the evocative as m here about that much? The Russell two thousand makes another run above the twenty four hundred markets, not far from what wouldn't be its first record high about three years, helped by upbeat readings on the consumer in retail earnings and a services sector. Gage this morning and then there's the tire list run in bitcoin.

IT is now trading above ninety nine thousand ninety nine two fifty at the moment. I got actually but a little closer than that two one hundred thousand dollar mark as the buying frenzy. Roles on its riding hopes for wider adoption under the incoming trump administration.

We will keep an eye on that one for sure. That brings us to our talk of the tape. How long will these favorable trends remain, investors friend, as we are even stronger seasonal period with the bol's confidence riding high well as warm pie, cofounder of three fourteen research, warn, great to see. Thanks for coming on today.

Think that me .

so as I gather, war and you're kind of not in the mood to necessarily fight this. This up trend as we faced the last several weeks of this year just seems like you have the fundamental case. The fed is is in this kind of orderly easing.

Obviously, the market technically has has held this nice trend. Is that accurate? I guess what would you be looking for come next? Yeah.

I think that is basically accurate. You know the markets clear a lot, I think, concerning hurdles here. And now we were stuck with like the most seasonally bullish here to the year. So we the elections behind this earnings for the most part now are behind us the fest cutting. So that was all anticipated events.

When you go back to the beginning of this year, and this is the dynamic we've been talking about, been talking with you on this network for the Better part this year, that strategist h investors in general were just pessimistic on the bone market company twenty twenty four strategy forecast back in one year go implied two percent gains for the S M P five hundred. And so our view is that this was going to create a chase dynamic throughout the year. Ah and so all the pullbacks are shallow.

They're quickly bad. Everybody has to catch up. And now where in the seasonal bullish window you can't fade this. I think that the market set up down the strong finish even though we think context q action. And so yeah, i'm not i'm not going to fake that, but I I am starting to look ahead twenty, twenty five and see some risks out there.

And we are showing this chart that you may that track the strategist consensus targeting for the S M P. Five hundred. And you have this end of year jumps in the projected target level, obviously, as strategies come out and refresh their outlooks for the coming here. Is this now at a level that you would be concerned? Let's say the consensus looking for about eleven percent return to twenty twenty five bars are just the fact that kind of everybody is .

revising higher IT is an an area where i'm starting to get concerned. And so this just for a moment, we have to get all the status targets in there to to really have a full view of what's happening.

And so but the early returns around and like like I said last year stages made the mistake of being too keeping their arguments too low and just being too barri shed for twenty twenty four and y're not going to make that mistake again to seem so the early jarkko get worthy is like sixty six hundred, twenty twenty five target and and from current target level, that's a twenty percent increase and eleven percent apply gain, as you mentioned, for the S M. P. Five hundred.

And both of those numbers are are basically the highest we've seen at this point. You always this rise at this point here. This will be the biggest jump and we see as we roll into an counter year. So we went from just skepticism coming in two twenty four to a optimism going in the twenty twenty five.

And that is the condition you see for you know don't want to be alarming, but that's what you see around major market tops, every one of the the bear markets we seed for the last twenty five years has started with strategists. Well ove S M P five hundred spot level. So if this is where the the rest of the the strategy come in on their targets, that yeah this is a concerning backdrop and IT makes the .

market more yeah, obviously, crab becomes harder to please when everyone's expecting great things. If we do run into some kind of turbulence, maybe it's after the turn of the year, there is some historical precedent for some weakness into an auguries day. You know to post election, you're all the rest of IT. Do you think that, that volatility might come from a another growth scare? Or is you gonna kind of the overheating yields going higher story?

Yeah, I think it's a little interaction of both, right. And so I think under the surface, did i'm not ready to say that the recession is here or anything like that alarmist. But what I can say is, again, go back last year, fifty percent of odds of a recession based on the bloomberg survey of a kind and is that number has dropped to twenty five percent.

So basically, everybody is on the no recession kick in. When you look at the signal areas of the economy, they are weakening. And that's an interaction of interest rates weigh on things like housing.

And so I think if if rates don't keep moving down, and that's not my expectation on the on the long, and that is that I think you'll continue to see the growth scars pop up. So where are out right now that the big question I have for twenty, twenty and five kinds U S. Economy handle this, say, seven percent plus more gates. And right now um the evidence says not I M not so much it's it's not A A great environment for those those leading edge areas of the economy.

I know you look across asset classes for your um your investment model, and I know you have golden there. A bitcoin is kind of on gold corner here and is dominating so much of the enthusiasm in the action. What do you make of this run in crypto, which also seems to have kind of kindled A A little bit of an echo boom in some other risky reply to the market?

And yeah, that's absolutely right as the pattern we've seen post election is just like go from quality to low quality. Has been the swing egypto bitcoin has been the leader in in that dynamic. You know how can you be anything but polish on on bitcoin?

To be honest, i'm not a huge crypto guy or a bitcoin max moto, anything like that, but the administration throws there behind the asset like this. I think it's a big deal. And so IT looks like this is gonna just an ultimate an existent al win for bitcoin and is going to be adopted by the industry.

I was talking to some funds that really specialized the clients of hours, and they think that a huge portion of bitcoin has been lost. So some of the supply has been has been kept. And they also think that in the order for this to be a big enough asset for the industry, IT might have to go p to like three hundred thousand dollars, you looking like that.

So once the industry starts a dop and you get this kind of every billion, you don't in the way of the momentum. So yeah, our model ism at the three percent big coin position, which is a max decision for us. And the one question I do have is gold continue to thrive in that world with bit my view that some of the gold sell off that we've seen in others dollar string and stuff like that post election. I would shock that up to this just crazy bitcoin rally and IT kind of winning the battle of what i'd say are d basement assets right?

And and of course, all happening with with the dollar actually very strong in a Miller .

yeah I mean the dollar golds been downtown. The thing is so that bring bit going doing well but golden downs, ses, every currency, even the euro, which is getting kill right now, goes down post election. And so yes, I mean it's um I think that is when you you have to take that dollar effect out. But when you you look at that, you can see there is some real gold weakness going on under the services.

Yeah and I definitely was time right after that the size of election result. Let's bring an tabs, mall of rain and James and Victoria fernando of cross mark, global investments into the conversation. You welcome to evolve, Victoria. I know that you've have been focused on of all the assets may be a little bit defensive in your mix, says any of that change based on conditions over the last of of weeks or expectations about policy or market action.

We haven't had a huge shift, mike, in our broader outlook. We still think there's warning signs ahead. And some of the things that you guys have been talking about, obviously, there's weakness in the labor market, and we have to see how that comes to fruition or if that does.

In regards to you know the quits, ray, the continuing claims going higher, companies talking about potential layoff s coming next year, evaluations are quite high. So we are a little concerned as to how much more room there is for this growth component in the market. But at the same time, just like you guys have been talking, I don't think you want to stand in the way of the momentum that we're seeing right now.

And there's good reasons for IT. You've got the fed and not just the fed, but central banks globally lower rates. You have a more business friendly administration coming in.

If they don't get corporate tax rate cuts, they're not going to go higher, probably am and less regulation. And then sentiment is just really strong right now. You look at bull bear ratio at a three to one advanced decline line.

Is strong. You are speaking earlier today about all the the money you see flowing into risk in your assets. So I think there's momentum this market. I don't think you stand in the way of the, but we are still taking a little bit of a guarded approach for what we think may be coming next year.

And tavis, I me just building upon that on some level. This is kind of help bone markets go, right? People have fun over here. And then the main core of the market seems to just be repricing to discount, you know causes economic scenario market been very rotational since the election, you know banks working cycles working responding to Better than expected. The economic data you're finding fault with, with any of that are you're seeing any potential hazards bubble up?

Not really. I mean, everything was very goldy locks right now. The problem is we know IT doesn't stay this way for long.

And if we don't have a period of labor of weakness next year, by december of next year, this be the longest period of full employment in the U. S. And the world war two.

So journal, what happens is either we will fall in to the recession or things will overheat again, and the fed will be forced to raise rates and cause recession. But IT always eats the same way. And so I I think everybody is playing a very similar game, which is moment of a strong right now. Economy looks good and um I think the the the soon as sign of any weakness anywhere, uh you'll just end up getting an overreaction because the the the multiple got so high over the last last twelve, fifteen months.

right? There's no data about that right where at twenty two times former learnings for the s MPI folder. Now that forward estimate does continue to take higher, but no doubt or at you pretty much close to to multi decade highs.

There 2 is obviously a lot of the folks want to rationalized that to some degree and say it's mostly weighted in these mega cap stocks that actually have under performed over the last few months。 We have had a badding out of the rally. It's following earnings growth. Is that enough?

yeah. First, I would correct you. I do not think two thousand and twenty five .

consent assessments are taking highly .

think this school was not going up but twelve month ward, think uh, to me, the biggest rise for next year is the two things that driving multiple across the index or A I in the infrastructure bill. So you look at uh sector PS um verses where they were in two thousand and nineteen. And every sector outside of energy is more expensive than that was a two thousand nineteen.

But if you look at the medium stock across every sector, the only sectors, whether median stock is more expensive in nineteen or technology and industrials and is all because of those two narratives. So as you said before, like these club, players have really started on a form of way. And I think a lot of that because of have sex anxiety.

And if that just continues into the next year and the infrastructure bill spending starts to is not going to fall off a clip. But if this just starts at to level off, we lose these two narrative, that becomes a very different market. And so I think the safer place to be is in the the non AI, non infrastructure bill related names that are much cheaper because I think that your whole economy outside of that looks decent right now, but certainly Better than I would have thought six months ago.

Yeah, Victoria, I mean, the credit market certainly reflect this idea that there just isn't that much macro risk, default risk least based on how things trade at the moment, which I guess should give comfort for some things like even smaller cap stocks. And you have a belief that some of those long left behind the areas of the market are due for a chance to participate or as the window close.

Well, I if we're going to have a soft landing, the those are the areas that need to kind of have a comeback and really support this economy. But you're right. I mean, we think of recessions historically and the usually a credit event that is pushing us into recession.

You look at credit spreads right now. High yield ld spreads as low as they were before the great financial crisis, investment grade as low as they were back in the summer of one thousand and ninety eight. We are seeing no warning signs coming out of the credit market at all.

Again, I think that's feeding into this optimism that people have in this very bullish cinema. But we do need to see some turning in some of these other areas. We've started to see a little bit energy has started to turn around a little bit.

You have been doing Better, but we need to see kind of a break out and relative to the market as a whole, and we're not seeing that yet. Staples, another one where we'd like to see a relative break out and see some strength there. Then I think that put you on a little bit of a more sustainable growth pattern going forward.

And then that would speak well to small cuts. But for right now, that's a little too risky for us and our broad scheme for our clients. So we're staying with some of the larger names and and the areas we like, especially financials .

and .

industrials. And warm before we go. I love you have your way in on oil here because you know it's made IT made a little bit of a move IT seems like the street is pretty skeptical on anything lasting. But how does IT set up in your work right now?

Yes, a little tRicky. So our model is bullish, but I am having a hard time personally getting behind that. I think that you know maybe we found the bottom here in the very near term, and we're going to make a little bit of progress near term.

Deficit still remains, and there's a lot of skepticism and out there in the futures market from hetch funds. I think the big dominant factor, though, the reason I think there's more downside than upside if we go out like three months on crude oil is the fact that we all know hope that come back to market with with their oil. And this is like we just said, this is the seasonally strongest period year for the stock market.

IT is by far the seasonally weak st period of the year from thanksgiving to the end of the year for crude il. So um yeah I mean, there are some things to like and we have stabilized you recently, and I think that could persist for a week or so. But once we get beyond thanks giving in to december, I don't want cruel exposure.

And just quickly, I mean, the energy stocks have actually had a pretty strong bed since the election. Is anything to make of of these periods when the equities really outperform the commodity? Or is this just a natural gas rally story?

It's a little bit natural gas is a little refining and it's a little bit, I think the trump trade so like everybody throwing like just the signal, low quality trade and old and energy is getting caught up in that know IT goes back to what Victoria was saying, like if if this can actually be A A true soft landing, like a beautiful and macular soft landing, that all those trades can work out.

But know year three, available market is kind of late cycle. My view, I don't want to go on all in on that bt, personally. So yeah, I think it's problem to be a special something .

usually comes along to rebuild the wall of warrior at some point. Warn tavis Victoria, thanks so much appreciated. Never good weekend. Let's send over to apart and evolves for a look at the biggest names moving into the cloth, say, Christinia.

Hi, mike. Well, elastic on paced for its best day in about a year after a reported surging revenue from its cloud unit and a Better than expected earnings outlook, analysts said. Bared also upgraded the stock of software company to add perform from mutual, saying the company has made an unexpected turnaround and is becoming a leader in A I search, and that is why shares are almost fifteen percent right now.

Meantime, reit shares are falling in a report that advance magazine publishers is looking to establish a credit facility using as much as one point two billion dollars of its taken redit. That's, according to a person familiar with the matter, advanced ones contain and is offering reit chairs and about eight percent discount to yesterday's closed. And so that's why shares are done almost eight percent today.

Like interesting all right, that's that's kind of an interesting combo. Advances publications and read IT. Thank you. We are just getting started here. Up next, citys meter warrior is back and breaking out her playbook for hedge funds in the new year.

So join me a post nine with her forecasts after this way for life in your product exchange, you're watching closing bell on C, N, B, C. Our goal is to empower you to be a Better, best music teaching. I was able to learn and become financially independent in my retirement.

Join the club with jima's best deal of the year at C N B C D com slash club like for friday. Terms of restrict and supply twenty twenty four has been a strong year for heads funds with long short strategies on track to nearly double their average annual return to the last twenty years. Or next, guess says next year should present even more opportunity.

Metal warrior is city north america's head of capital introduction? She's you a post now I could to see you here. You were near the end of a year in the S.

P. Five hundred is up twenty five percent um do people not come to you and say you look, I could have own that for a couple of basis points. And why do we need to hedge? Why do we need some complex strategies out?

There has been a good year for had fun performance and not just because the market has been up. You remember, there's a very amount of multilateral summer and the ton of uncertainty leading to the election.

If you think there's gonna be continued maco uncertainty, if you think there's gonna geopolitical uncertainty, if you think there's going na be rates uncertainty and if you think there's gonna fundamentals are back and play, you want to be hedge. And what's interesting is post the election, our analytics show that growth leverage in the system among hetch funds is at twenty minutes. That leverage is also up, but not quite as high, which tells us that shorts are active.

So you think shorts are active? Or did they come into this period maybe just a little bit defensive and they haven't caught up?

I think it's a mix of both. One thing that we notice, if you look at t for example, our security landing just noted that last week for the third week, among four of the four prior week, TMT was the most shorted sector. And the view there is if you have to present the impact of potential tariffs.

Potential AI regulation. And again, rates, you now have an environment where there's can be winners and losers, and that's what hetch funds really do that stop picking and and differentiating between the winners and the losers. So there is that stock picking in fundamental assessment that happening?

sure. The other piece of that, I think that is a pretty consensus expectation, is that deals of various kinds will start next year. I maybe people don't talk about IT so much, but IPO s are tremendous potential contributor to head fund performance. And of course, M A with all exactly .

that's the view that the regular or environment next year is going to be friendly er towards the ma environment, not just in terms of volume of deals, but also the left tail from deal breakage potentially being mitigating being lower. And that should also lead to more optimism on the IPO environment and the has active participants in that .

deal environment. And just circle back to the idea that an end investor has the choice between I will just ride the market IT with some proportion of my money I have beta and all all seek to pay for alpha for some kind of a hedge's and strategy where you're different tiers do not feel as if people say, look, the markets of twenty percent two years in a row I don't want to worry about.

I think they can certainly say that. I think it's again, what sort of headwinds do expect. You do expect dispersion and differences. You can just own the markets or you can own the right stocks and you can participate in shorting of stocks that could amplify some alpha to your a portfolio. That's what IT is.

If you look at your portfolio, you want to have diversification, your portfolio want to have those alpha generation, generation opportunities and you want to be hedged. When there does come, uncertainty does come up. And especially again, and talking to our clients, the tech sectors, really interesting because beyond the max 7， we talked with your earlier commentator here that the breath in the market is increasing, and that's again going to create some dispersion. And if you look at the supply chain, people finding lot of opportunities there. So I certainly you can own the market, but it's what are .

you anticipating for the and you have a differentiated view about the A I investment. yes. And you think that everyone is not mean there's probably plenty of things to pick out. I took note this um that kenric in made public comments suggesting that the multi strategy heads fun world is maybe picked, maybe the interest is raining or that it's played out. Of course, he runs one of the biggest ones and most successful ones, but I just wonder if that matches up with what you up there.

I think there's there's been a ton of A A U M growth in space. And it's again, what are the alpha generating opportunities compared to cash rates and risky rates in the interest rate environment? And again, if it's an alpha stock picking environment, do you need the hedge market portfolio aspect that those firms offer? And if so, how big of an allocation is that into your portfolio? I think when we speak to our alligators, it's less about do we need multi strate or not? Is what's the sizing and that's the question.

And what about globally because you want to talk about dispersion? I mean, U S. First is the rest of the world is incredibly split right now. So is there interested in there? Is that kind of people looking to kind of shift among the wreckage?

Yeah, I mean, tempt a global story, right? You look at the supply chain in asia is a big factor, and that's a certainly tempted of global story energies, a global story as well. If you look at in europe, energy security and energy transition again, while Green energy and electronic ation as a sector maybe not doing well again, there's winners and losers.

If you look at A I, you need energy to power A I, and it's a global story as well. In europe, it's evaluation story. That's what our client are seeing.

And in japan and asia and particular lot of our clients ing opportunities for engagement and governance. And so you are seeing global opportunities and hedged opportunities. And so we think hedged ones a great place to be.

and we seem not to be able to escape the cyp to question. Does i'd even really come in to play for, for the funds that look .

at I think our clients look at every opportunity from an alpha generation perspective, and I has to fit the investment and meandered, has to fit the liquidity profile, has to fit the ultimate goal that they're trying to achieve. So it's case by case. yes. OK .

probably probably not necessarily crypt only.

Thank you. Thank you. Good to be.

Here are up next bitcoin bounding, hitting a record high earlier today, now nearing one hundred thousand dollars to see that within a few hundred box. M. J.

Eric Jackson is standing by to break down that move and what he thinks is next for the cypher space. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following a closing bell podcast. On your favorite podcast, i'll be right now.

Experience the power of C N, B, C prose. Best deal of the year. Track your portfolio from every angle on one. Optimize plm.

I, well welcome back bitcoin on a tair since the election hitting another record high today and closing in on one hundred thousand dollars. Join me here at post nine cypher to bol em j capitals. Eric Jackson makes his case for more upside.

It's faster by talking all week about how the kind of high risk, high reward part of the market, whether it's kind of aggressive growth tech or of course, crypt or related, have really got in the tellWright here talk about bitcoin specifically. We think we know why it's here. But how much longer can can this supportive action continue?

Well, I think a lot of people that I talk to say, well, it's just gna kiss one hundred thousand and that's going to pull back. I mean, because it's a big round number and it's had a great run. But I do think there's a chance like that hundred thousand milestone could be rethink for a lot of investors.

Both the institutional sovereign, uh, retail and the bunch of cattle is still ahead. I think usually when we're in these bullish crypto periods, thanksgiving becomes a springboard and not actually the name on the coffin. yes.

So I think there is going to be a lot of discussion about next week, and I think that could be a catalyst. Obviously, we've got me of the new c regime coming in. I think I know the strategic reserve, I think is huge.

I think there's going to be a lot of other countries are saying, well, if the us. Doing this, why arent we? So that supports an underlying did. So I actually .

have to get to a point though at some point where you genuinely believe that's gonna A A strategic visit, right? In other words, I can just be the atmospheric of oh, much more we needed tion. And they seem to be in favor of this thing because the bulcke fundamentally always comes down to just reasons for supply demand to continue to right?

There's no question that we're going to see some tangible names you ahead of the S, C, C, know in charge of know whatever the committee is going to be. And so we're speaking out uh, over the coming weeks. And I think I think those names, you know the fact that they there's real structure that's going to be coming into place around crypt, au and and bitcoin, I think I think those will be catalyst enough themselves even before there's actually hopefully A A tangible strategic reserve announced.

There's a little bit of of of irony, I think, in the fact that the the original bitcoin premises like this is kind of this perfectly engineered asset class platform, eeta. It's verifiable. IT is what IT is and it's nothing else.

And then you have all the derivation place like microstrip gy, which is essentially a leverage version of a bitcoin, the raising capital, high valuations to flow back into bitcoin. And they are telling the market we're coming and buying more. They are not trying to get a great Price for IT, right? So what did you make of yesterday's really kind of ugly downtown side reversal? Mico is bouncing today, but why in that form?

I own IT. I think yesterday was a sort of a culmination of not really it's almost like six or seven straight days of like massive like ten percent plus gains from strategy, I know. And there is how to .

be no moves .

like that gently. Well, I mean, no, I questionably trades at a premium, but grey scale traded at a premium for quite a while. And so I think this can continue.

I think IT IT does deserve to trade in a premium given its size, given its kind of know a really leadership in this space. Are they going to be other corporate to that come in to follow IT. So I think that this tune continue to play for know the next couple of years, I owe IT. I still think it's going to be around IT. It's the dominant the fact that couple of days ago, higher dollar volume in via and and title was remarked.

But again, I guess I come down the side of I would worry when you have so much hot money retail flow into a single name, which is telling you all we are is our bitcoin baLances and IT trades at four times the bit point value.

Yeah but I think compared to twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty one know we really haven't seen like a craziness know crypto fever a of you it's it's been a bitcoin rally to this point. A theory um is sort of not taking the off. I mean, maybe it's participated a couple in the last couple of days.

Salona is really emerging. Mean coins are starting to heat up here. And so but the alt coins, you know besides them, haven't really done anything so far. So I think we've got to see that a broadening out of the rally and .

cypher o at all wall street, they know before they're wait until the coin started to right before you get nurse outside of crypto and crypto equities, things like you know, names you've known for a while, the firms of fin tech stocks, the stuff that really was boom m bust in early twenty twenty one and then crashed. It's moving again, right? Is that just muscle memory? Is that just an echo of what we saw before?

What else has happened? There's been and false down a couple of times for the Russell l in the ark like names. And so now we'll have to see if this post election rally and them sticks.

But in a lot of them, dureing haven't participated you. About eighty months ago, I came on the program and I was a bang in the jump for carvin a and it's had a huge run since then. But at the time, there's really know the stock was down ninety plus percent from its eyes, you know, hi debt, struggling consumers.

So they said. Where was the bullet case then? And but there are a lot of names like like carvin a that are you, I think, still depressed relative to the historical names, but just on a multiple basis if they get a little bit of growth, uh, many of them are are now profitable or about to be profitable.

And that was sort of like key, key cattle for carbon. A so I love a firm. I love um up start again.

I love pelletan in particular pelletan been forgotten about. They have a new CEO come in jji ones or watch them. I think there are a bunch of these names.

Root insurance is another one that that sort of been forgotten about. So watch these names. I think in the months human ID pop this, I i'd rather have you the majority of my money and names like that is opposed to all on microstrip. Gy, at this point.

Well, yeah, I of course safe and diversified those other names really quickly. You said all start again. I mean, didn't write IT all way down from what you like. twenty?

Twenty one? no. I mean that I didn't talk ticket for sure, but no, I was a big ball when I IPO in twenty twenty and obviously had an enormous run from there, kind of got a crazy so microstrip gy, like almost, but did get out of IT.

But you know, they ve been writing their time, mean they in a firm, I mean, a lot of people said, well, the consumers struggling. How are these names going to do well, they are doing well. They are they are managing their their downside well. And and there there is a demand for for their .

service. Go, thank you up nx for track the biggest movers as we head into the close, Christina.

standing by with those. Well, we have potential future trump political players adding volatility to one bio farmer name and a big stocker versus for a software. Y I explain next.

Eighteen minutes till the closing, ballets get back to cristina for a look at some keys, dogs to watch.

let set with my journeys. One of the top gainers in the S M P hundred today after Geoffrey said the stock could be due for a rebound following its post election day slump. S so shares drop sharply following trumps win and a selection of vaccine skeptic arf k junior for H H S secretary.

But yesterday majora shares actually turned higher after g pick mag gates withdrew, which is maybe a potential sign that trumps other controversial nominees may experience the same fate, and that shares up six and a half percent that APP shares losing steam zo and in the red despite surging after reporting results yesterday, he was a strong quarter of overall booted by performance in cloud stored services, and there was a flurry of vanities calls to Morgan stanly barkly walls for all their Price targets because he shares down almost four percent. But for more on this quarter, tune the next hour for A C, M, C. Exclusive with co. George korean. And that's coming up soon. mike.

Happy friday. Thank you very much. Will do still ahead. Amazon making another big A I push open the ani in its funding battle with open a ye the details on that coming up pass the next barbon hammer the box office is getting big on wicked and guide or two this weekend. So what might not mean the theatres bottom lies i'll discussed from closing becomes back come next Operative retail results on tap for next week will run through what to watch when macy and norge room report learnings that's coming up and much more when we taking inside the mark. We are now in the closing bell mark zone court and brings us the big move in gap chairs and look ahead to key retail learnings out in the week ahead brought a big weekend for the box office, Julia bordon on the key figures for two studio tent pole films and kate roney on the waitest amazon funding for A I start up anthropy c so cord, actually pretty, I guess, positive responses to some of the retail numbers in the last day or so. What are we looking for that?

Yeah, absolutely. I think most were Better than expected for the quarters, but with some cautious maybe for the holiday season. So the retail E T F X T really outperform in the S M P five hundred this week. Gap ink, one of the name surging today. Following that Better than expected earnings report, I spoke with gap ink CEO, rich dixon and an exclusive interview about the progress of the transformation.

The parl industry declined uh, a point to half, uh, and we grew share, uh, in all of our brands. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of sales growth is the seven consecutive quarter of share gains. Uh, so so you're really seeing the sequential progress in our reinvigorate ratee driving top line.

No, that might a dancer in a paro, but target called that weakness there. Rosters c said higher Price necessities are pressuring each is direction ary spending ability.

Now we hear from more repair l on discretionary good sellers next week when the exporting goods maces coals stories from best by and a couple of others report ahead of that things giving weekend, which we, of course have these associated shopping holidays and gaps, is that the early holiday sales IT seen a quote off to a strong start while targets quarter disappoint IT. But he did set sales records for its circle week. That's that early holiday events that they are now pretty much holding every october annually. Retailers of consumers will buy when they have a reason to. So like maybe it's the events black friday and cyber a monday that will get consumers willing to open up those poke books a little for the direction your items you've ta give .

them a reason yeah for sure. And that would seem to offset the kind of oh, it's a short holiday shopping this and based on the old math of how many days between thankyou, skiving and Christmas and that seems like IT sort of feels up whatever space is needed.

Yeah exactly. It's a discussion point, right? And I think IT just IT does have fewer days where maybe retailers are able to deliver for customers literally and figure timely. Yeah, but just because are five shorter days doesn't mean most likely that people going to buy one left toy under the Christmas tree at the end of the day, they just going to get their act together a little faster. Retailers Better .

be able to deliver red. All right, Julia, supposed to be a big weekend at the movie. Tell us about IT.

Well, it's already starting off as a big weekend at the movies because we can has already grows nineteen million dollars from previous and parameter s graduate or just brought in six and a half million dollars from preview. Now those two films could give a much needed boost to the box office. That's down seven percent from last year and down twenty seven percent from the same period in nineteen.

But wickets, massive marketing blitz, is the new playbox to turn movies into cultural touchstones. Wickets has over four hundred partnerships, which universal says reach over two billion shoppers. Partnerships ring from starbucks and legos to skids on sl.

Meanwhile, paramount graduate, or tuesday, a reported one hundred million dollars on marketing, including six red corporate events, a 4 color C。 M. That they built here in hollywood and a trailer that they release simultaneously, and more than four thousand networks, digital platforms and radio stations to reach as many as three hundred million customers at the same time. Now it's not just the studios hoping for a big weekend. IMAX and M, C will also benefit if audiences go out and see illar for all the big budget equals that are set for released next year.

They're trying to jillie, I wonder. I mean, people clearly have been trying to map the the wicked gladiator to duo, along with, you know, Barbie open hamer from last summer, year ago, last summer. Are we seeing in the evidence that people are actually doing that? See, both movies in one day? Mean, that was such a organic phenomenon. IT seem that just took on a wife of its own.

I think it's less about trying to get people to see both booths in one day that's a big time commitment, and more about this excitement to go out to see the movies in general. Know people have a lot of time over the holiday weekend. Maybe they see one one day, one another day.

And I think the other thing that's really key here is that these are movies for very different audiences. There maybe one audience that goes out to see wicked, another that goes out to see gladiator. And yes, there could be some overlap. But just like Barbie and often time time, there was so very different films, they're clearly not competing for competing with each other for audiences, which is one reason why I think this idea of a arma hymir phenomenon or a wicket aor phenomenon, you know, they're not a competing with each other.

Everyone wins here, right? Or in my household, that would be a dad movie and a daughter movie. Maybe we all go to both, but that's kind of how the break down is.

Now what are the chances is that the slate that's remaining for the rest of this year sort of rescue the box office for twenty twenty four, there was a bit of a log jam. You gonna have a rush of of late year holiday. The movies well, coming up before .

thanksgiving ving. There's movant a too from dizzy, which is expected to be a huge family film and then told the end of the year you always get these Oscar movies. And so that's when you're starting to get some these more prestige tight movies that may not be massive box of over the course of the weekend but could have more the hold over that through the end of the year.

The real box office numbers could come next year when we have this backlog of films sequel to avatara and capt. In amErica from disney, there is a new mission impossible movie from payment on. And these films were all delayed because of the and write strikes.

So we're going to see the really big budget and potentially huge box top this movies coming out next year. And I think there is a hope that you go to see movie this weekend. You'll see a ton of trailers.

I feel like every time I go to the movies, I see more trailers. And that all is most. Are you excited to see more movies next year?

Yeah, that's that's the game. Twenty minutes of trailers are july. Thanks so much, kate. Talk about this, this new amazon investment in tropic.

Yeah, I gets the latest. So amazon doubling down on its tempo pic, announcing another four billion dollar agreement into the AI start up. The total is now eight billion dollars, by far the largest outside investment by amazon and its three decade history.

This is really amazon's horse in the AI race. Amazon, in this scenario, minority investor and does not have a board seat. But IT is a major endorsement for anthropic.

And so it's a start. If IT was founded by former OpenAI executives and is competing with the OpenAI, cash is a key way that these A I start of time to compete. They are very capital intensive and access to cloud computing and chips are key for all of those. As part of this, amazon to become android s primary cloud partner and they're going to use A W semi conductors, which do compete with media to train their models make.

And on that point, kate IT is interesting because on one level, you could view IT as amazon essentially funding a very large customer of of its own. And I know sometimes these payments, like with microsoft and OpenAI, they were really in the investments were in the form of cloud computing time.

That's been one of the criticisms of these types of deals in this type structure, but it's becoming quite common. Mention microsoft open eye. One thing that people have been sort of chirky about, I meant i've talked to a couple of folks said here today, he said amazon at least, is committing to anthropic as their horse in the race.

Well, some have said that microsoft is now sort of hegemonic yy, moving away from the open eye relationship. The news today is underlined for a lot of people that the anthropic amazon relationship, yes, IT may be fuelling amazon growth in some ways. Some have criticize that arrangement, but they are committing to sort of that being the one versus microsoft, maybe spreading their bets. Google, you've seen them do the same thing, but we have an interesting dynamic and the regulatory environments different. So seems to give them a Green light .

to be able to this step deal to do things like this and maybe experiment and and see you were at these can thanks so much. Have a great weekend as we headed to the clothes, about forty seconds to go in the week, the S, M, P, five hundred hanging onto a, again on the day of about four tens of one percent for the week. IT is up one point seven percent, but really is somewhat the lager.

Based on some of the weakness in NVIDIA and other stocks that lead that index, you see the equated us and p vi al perform up about two and a half for the week. The doubts gna go out on the day with about a one percent year or husband and all week of late day strength as a lot of etf lows have come into this market and they often be by right at the close. I think you the coding down.