Closing Bell: Fed Decision Preview 11/6/24
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Kelly, thanks so much. Welcome to closing baLance. Got water your life from post nine here, the new york stock exchange. This make a break hour begins with the post election rally the first day for stocks in some two years as president trump is elective. Once again, i'll tract the biggest movers into the cloth.

And yep, there are many today, many things moving with sixty minutes to go in regulation in the major averages, ripping higher all day long, almost three percent of the nz, two and a half percent for the s and peg. And look at that, you're three and a half percent of the doll yells, walk there up to along with the dollar today. And you just heard about bitcoin getting above seventy five thousand.

We're watching that closely. IT is pushing seventy six thousand at this very moment. And how about tesla of a stunning fifteen percent at its highs today? It's just about right there as well well as black rox rick reader about all of this in just a little bit and then former fed governor Richard Clark to join us two to size up tomorrow's big bed decision.

Don't forget about that. IT does take a start. Talk to take the road ahead for the markets as a so called red sweep seems likely this hour.

The only real question now the margin, let's welcome in our panel solar alternative vasant management stand Greenhouse high towers step in any link and wealth fargo's Chris harvey, they're all with me here at post nine step, i'll give you first. I mean, you could bear like ten different things that are surging today, asset classes, individual stocks. I mean.

it's prereduced when we have to talk about some of the moves. I may talk about that later a little a bit later, but I think the message is that this administration is going to bring faster growth, maybe a little bit more inflation. That's what bot neels are telling you.

The ten year has raley seventy five basis points in the september eighteenth s when the fed cut, they're ready telling you was already forecasting Better growth, maybe a smit, more inflation. I don't think inflation is going to be run away. Um I think what's going to be really interesting Scotties. We're onna get less government spending, but we're probably going to get a business investment cycle now because all the companies that i've talked to, all the CEO, they were waiting for this, they were waiting for some sort of clarity. And thank goodness we actually got an answer, by the way, you know, I was worried about that.

wanted to clean.

wanted to and I was clean. So terms are still a question is, is just china is IT around the world? Looks like terrace, probably ghost to maybe like thirty percent for china, maybe it's one to five percent for the rest of the world.

I think that's manageable. I don't know if that's really that inflationary. So the people the fact that people are nervous about that, we have to watch IT. But I think overall, obviously, very good news today on top of what we talk about yesterday on half time ready in a growth cycle in the economy growing two and a half percent, the consumers doing OK, manufacturing doing OK. So I think the momentum can continue when earnings are going higher.

and that's why stocks are going anywhere. The backdrop was good no matter what happened last night. IT just appears obviously more favorable able um for many areas of other market, clearly given the reaction today.

Chris harbin, the good news is you raise your S M P target to fifty eight thirty. The bad news is fifty nine, twenty three men. I mean, you're a little low now. Aren't you still even though you raise IT what what's to go on here?

Yes, Scott, we're just having a hard time. So we have a multiple of almost twenty two times on a two seventy number.

We are focused .

now down the compensation. That's where the value is. Its mid cap is small caps.

Small cap is more of trade. Meat cap is where you want to park your bets up. cap.

It's is hard for me to justify those numbers. That doesn't mean that, that stocks you're gonna come back in IT. Is I I can't get there right based on valuations. Another thing. So I find the value I find the opportunity down the captivation Better evaluations haven't participated and you do have a pretty strong as stuff in was saying you have a pretty strong economy. We're gonna some ema and things are gonna start to get exciting from here.

You say we have underappreciated economic growth, solid earnings, tight credit spreads and positive momentum. Ah um we being you guys.

you no I I think .

the market market so if you be restituted that we were record highs even before the day. We are only one and half percent from highs before we got the trump bump.

which which is why we're moving down. The captain sation, the small caps and mid caps, they ve really have been performed, right? If we look at twenty five, people still think that GDP is going to be below two percent.

That's not a great environment for small cars. But in actuality, economy is much stronger than that. And that's one of the reasons why small cap s are moving. Yes, you have a trump trade. You have certainty, you have the fed moving, you have take credit spreads, but ultimately, the economy is stronger .

than people really like the market cap, wait, like the S P five hundred because the big names, the big market caps that making the biggest difference within the index itself are just not going to do as well. It's like you're making a barris h call at the market. It's just your more nuances because you think there's greater upside in things like the Russell, which by the way, I didn't even mention that. I mentioned that at the top is up six percent afford, but that's a kind of day IT.

Is there a lot? But but I also would be remiss. I didn't mention what was down.

which staples and utilities well.

but also some of the names that would be associated had vice persons and Harris one, sun run, clock power, sonos a and some of the retailers that do a lot of importing like five below and the dollar stores, they need a lot of stuff overseas. You're going to terf plays, is the other sort of this. So it's like like there's a lot to celebrate, a lot of doing well. The defense names, the home builders are having a little bit of trouble. I just feel the need to baLance IT out by .

pointing not everything is up. Some things are that I understand. What does this now mean for where we actually will go from here? This is not a, you mean, you tell me a one day phenomenon. I'm not suggesting that all these asset classes are going to go up by the same degree from here in perpetuity, but I think things feel like theyve been reset here with not only the win but the magnitude of IT. The idea of a sweep i'll be if we still don't know what the house margin going to be, and that's critically important as well, is at a two seat margin, is at a seven seat margin big time. Money managers are watching that margin because that .

matters as you should. I mean that you can only lose one, obviously, with a two march, you can only lose one or two loving because if you want to pass things and there's things to be done, particularly the extension of the T C, G. A sometime in the midst of the year or at the end of the year. I think obviously .

the sweep that's the tax cuts.

right? The tax cuts and .

jobs for we go real stuff.

Listen, I don't know that there's been a reset per say, but I think as I think I loud here the points that Chris articulated, the economy is doing well stocked at all time. High credit spreads are tight. And now being greeted with maybe not as dramatic of the loosening program is perhaps you previously thought, but still rates are on their way down. We're going to get a twenty five basis point cut this week.

Are they on their way down? Are they really on their way down? What what of this resets where rates are actually gonna?

They are not we've been talking about this old year. All of us on this program. They're not going down as much as the market at Prices at one point and probably not as much as we pressed as recently called IT a week ago.

But like rates are still going down. They may not get to the mid trees, but I think we probably get to the mid fores and then recess because the inflationary impact, if any of the time. Listen, if you do put sixty percent tariffs on chinese goods and ten percent tyres on everyone else combined, you're talking about a boost to GDP.

If I was a traditional academic economies doing this, you'd that somewhere around a one percent boost to otherwise baseline view of inflation, a one percent tage point increase is not nothing. I don't know that it's going to be enough for the president if if someone were to argue was gonna by one percent, he would find himself derailed. But I think the feet, while I going to want to wait and see exactly what gets passed, what gets instituted and win stuff.

I mean, all find good today. Market obviously loves the news that IT. But at what point are yields rising and backing up even further a problem?

Well, I mean, certainly something to watch to consider, but I actually think that it'll stay around these levels, if not go down. You forget about with inflation, productivity. And if productivity actually improve, inflation will improve or maybe IT doesn't go up as much.

We have to watch friday. china. China is going to issue their fiscal policy probably more stimulus, and we need to see how much stimulus that is and doesn't offset some of the tariff.

S so that's something that i'm watching as well because if they actually can get their act together and grow, that will add to also into in lation. So you know, look, we're watching rates. Um um more are interested in earnings thinking about nine nine percent growth this year.

I think you can go low double digits next year, especially if you do get some sort of reprove on taxes or even if you don't, you're having the Better growth cycle. And that, I think is much more important. You know, I have said this for a long time.

I would much rather have higher growth and a little higher inflation because that helps earnings, that gives company companies pricing power. And so I think the valuations, yes, they're rich, Chris. But guess what, there are so many sectors out there and there are so many stocks in large cabin that are not trading at twenty two times forward investments. This is much more of a stock picker market as well as sectors getting the right sectors. You in in your portfolio.

you talk about yields as on the cost of the fed today. Okay, really cares. But at some point, I mean, we had cared now with the more we don't care. When do we care?

I think we care at four seventy five. I think we care. We definitely care five percent. But foreign seems like the hand, the range, I think the range is three and half to four and half.

If you look at break evens or inflation expectations, just come two and a half you put on reel at another two. You're at foreign p that's pretty healthy to seventeen y's point about inflation. I'm not sure everyone talk about inflation and trumps s going to be very inflationary if you go back to his first three years, C, P, I, X, food, energy was one seven to two four.

That's not high inflation by any stretch. imagination. Further more, if it's drill, baby drill and we start bringing down oil Prices, that's that inflationary either.

And the last thing I would point out, and maybe i'm seeing things during earning season, i'm not quite sure. But what IT looks to be that the market investors are paying for unit volume growth but not Price. They prefer universe.

They want companies to grow unit vms. They want growth and they're not to focus on Price. And that's true CEO.

You're going to take notice of that. And that's really interesting. What we talk .

about are we underestimate also the ability if we Spark a new I don't necessarily want to see a new economic cycle, but maybe we prolong IT. We prolong IT more so than than people have thought. Can we grow our way out of the issues with the deficit? That sort of the right thing that Larry think the journal I think IT was yesterday week is like a run on week because I think that the points making, I mean, through infrastructure spending and these new growth opportunities because of AI, you increase your GDP growth and thus you can grow your way out of these buy IT.

This is Larry think is smarter and richer than .

me a lot at last, at least a little .

lot about. But yeah, i'll take the dramatic under on our ability to grow out of the deficit. That's not that's not i'm I M lac. I don't think that's going to happen at all about the new economic cycle yet.

Listen, a, you're going to get some deregulation, going to get some MMA, although I I would cautious caution people the jy that to get into politics are too much but the jade dances of the world and in that group will lump in mark rubio and josh holly. Just google IT does matter. There's an alternative way about thinking about things that they view away in which they view the world that's not in the traditional republic. And oxy j. Advances has had positive things at different points to say about lena han.

He's connected in in the in the tech world right time. They are dying to do deals. I the bright gsa last night I selection coverage, let's remind our viewers what he told me about all of this pent up demand, especially in tech out the valley.

Here's the problem. All large companies and silicon di, all large tech companies are basically have taken their entire ema team and they put him on the shelf instead. What they're doing is buying backstop dividends and buying more GPU.

I think we're gonna be Better serve when we get back to a proper functioning uh, you know, merger and acquisition in silicon valley. That's always been part of the heart beat of this place. And I think on a republican administration, you're going that I agree .

with everything you just said, listen, the banks are not up because this is going to be a surge of of checking deposits being opened. I mean, clearly, I N A you go. I have seen organ stand the meeting.

You see the private.

We're looking. We're looking at the same screen.

We are looking clean. Just .

saying, there is this thought again. Lennon is gone. You will not be heard of the F, T.

C. John and campo is gone. A deal, jack. But there is this alternative way by thinking that thinks my point is just a listen, you're going to get ma. Let's go back to the main point there.

You're going to get ma, you're going to get divided. You going to get my bags is going to be a friendly. Banks are the central part of that of that discussion.

agree. Banks like leaning, leaning into the banks now, definitely into the banks.

We are talking about a reset. You've had fifteen years of upward pressure, regulatory pressure. You are now.

You peaked about a year ago. You had bozzle free being watter down. You have a several decision and now you're going to have a very, very friendly administration.

This is different. Furthermore, you're right. Lacon is probably gone. She's been holding up a lot of ema.

What's going to happen to the banks is you're going to get multiple U. R. T. You've ve gotten multiple expansion. And now the capital markets business, ema, ipos, trading IT is all going to speed up. We may be looking at at a super cycle in .

the M A mark. stuff. You you want some of .

these things.

I hope you right. Don't golden. I only think you are on the private equity players.

And I own bank of america, wells fargo. I want true is american express. I am fourteen percent of my portfolio is infinite financial. I am way overweight. I have .

been adding to banks all along. Use bullet .

to bag today. So and I don't because I think that the valuations are still very attractive. And yeah I mean, Christ mention its capital market, its fees, its investment banking fees.

that blue way expectations and .

tide wells I attitude today. yes. So they're gaining mark chair and is all the things that Chris talked about, capital markets of vesting banking, wealth management, net new asset growth, which has helped also buy higher asset Prices.

And then you have the asset cap that eventually is going to get lifted. And they are so behind in asset growth, they're down one percent in asset growth since two thousand seventeen. The banks by the five, five other large banks are forty two percent in asset. So can you imagine the catch up that they're going to play? Now the stock has had a heck of a run, but he is still trading IT about one point four times spoke and I think is very attractive.

You set on twelve percent cash .

right in one of the portfolio.

I mean, that's a sizeable cash .

is del Y.

I. Let's move from beyond the ideas you are they suggested.

So we're looking at a lot of industrial names. Um we like that space a lot. We think that cyclicality, again, we do like the banks.

We do like the communication space, but we don't think you performs as well. We want to start adding more sliced. We want to add a little bit more economic sensitivity.

So that put us in the industrial space, that puts us in the banks and financial. And then we're gonna start to look at things now. Now that rates have come up, a lot of the home, home related stocks are tanking today. And that might be a space that you want to own longer term.

So two things, one on each other points. First, I respect of the financials I happen to see today that that's aggravate who's like a long standing bank. Analysts over IT more constantly put out a note today that commented at this past earning season, I might be power erasing or peti apologize.

This was the best of the twenty two years, the best quarter SHE seen in the twenty two years that she's been a bank analyst. So clearly something positive is going on here, the financial and the point about the industrials with with present trip winning and with presumed sweep of the house as well, there's talk maybe the inflation reduction act. Some of the Green subsidies will be scaled back.

Certainly, some of the Green subsidies will be scaled back. But the inflation reduction, I am sorry, yes, the inflation reduction act much like defend spending where they put each nutten bold in thirty seven different states. There are spending being deployed throughout the entire country here in red districts in red states that probably not gonna derail ed.

It's pretty popular. It's creating jobs, creating in quotes, it's spending money in districts, and it's gonna have some support here in the industrial space. Some of those names have done exceedingly well. We've talked about him on the show over the last six, twelve months. I don't think that the talk that the inflation of dog fact is being repealed or anything like that is going to come to fruition and a lot of that .

finding spending is going to stay in the pipeline about stuff that wasn't long ago. I A month I know what weeks were. China did the big stimulus, you know, and David tepper came on squad and look, he's super tactical. He could have you know changed his view based on market moves within an hour, a week or a month, who knows um but that was viewed to be a new investing environment. Is that change now because of I mean, the terrible still in place, but that soon to be president trump y again is talking about not only doubling down on them, that chains, that trade?

I don't think so. That's why friday is so important. We'll get maybe more stimulus or we'll get more details about the stimulus.

The stimulus that china put in place six weeks ago was just as large as the stimulus that they put in place during covet IT was massive across the spectrum of monetary policies and fiscal policies. So we will get more details this week. Um and whether it's more stimulus or not, it's still coming.

It'll help to offset higher terrors. But I think you're gonna get more. They gonna have to do more.

But you still like you like india Better than china no matter what. Anyway.

I think that india is definitely win under trumps for sure. I think china is short term, medium term kind of a trade. I think india is much more longer term given the population size of one point four five billion people in their in their country, forty of them are under the age of twenty five.

So think about productivity and innovation and growth. And you have prime minister mody, who's very fiscally savi. They are going to spend one point seven trillion dollars on infrastructure between now and twenty thirty, and there going to be the third largest country between now and thirty. And so I want to be part of that long term, Scott.

I just want to quickly take the other side of the china argument. China, we all know growth has been slowing. Property issues, blab a blaw.

We all know this, the one leg of the stool that's really been holding up that country. He's been external demand, particularly the united states. And I think that there's more to discuss on this topic, but I think the risk to china is severe. That these terrifying our ownership, our delta ious and perhaps do more IT depends if IT depends .

on what you think the terms are going to. And we don't know if IT goes to twenty nine percent and then they increase stimulus and that sort of thing and then they will be able to offset some of IT. And by the way, like we're grown in a two.

Have three percent, I think so bad, right? So I mean, europe is a mess, right? But india is not a mess. Japan's is not a mess. So I think that, that can help the overall global demand, which Scott was one of the reasons why i'm adding to an energy position today.

okay. Um you know we should do that. I forgot to do that.

No, going to create. It's okay.

I don't mean to steal what you showed the rest of your apple .

added what energy potion so a it's been crummy. But there the number one oil field service company in the world. Technology is amazing.

They get no credit whatsoever. They just did a deal with in video and didn't even get mentioned. And if you believe in drill, baby drill under drop, you're going to need more services. And these guys are the number one player.

All right, we were there. Live there.

It's O, K. 谁 想听？

China, india? U. S, best.

U, S, is best.

There we go. I got to have some last word. I would have felt that I was definitely don't agree. Now here, let's send IT to see a mody now for checking how the semis are faring in today's session.

Ma s gott chips overall are trading higher, but T S, M, C shares are falling on fears that president elect trump and post herbs on taiwan's chips and prioritized domestic manufacturer following comments that he made last week. Remember in video and every hyper scale rely on taione semi for its cutting edge chips.

Terra s could also weigh on the semiconductor equipment players and researched killing core and s ml that had the highest exposure to china in the smaller tf. This while super micros res remain under pressure following weak second quarter guidance, CEO says it's working urgently to find a new auditor that is feeling dealest concerns. We're looking at the stock down nineteen percent, Scott.

and I see. Thank you. Seem a money. Let's send IT out a kate rooney for a close to look at the big moves and Robin hood and interactive brokers today. High cake.

there's sort to all of this market activity you guys have been talking about, is really a boost for those brokers, firms who got shop higher as well. Rob hood and interactive of double digits today. Both of those firms offered election prediction contracts and overnight trading, which is helping hear.

Robin hood did put out some stats about this earlier. They saw the biggest equities overnight trading session since launching twenty four hour markets. They saw about four hundred million contracts at eleven times the usual overnight notional volume.

Top traded symbols for them. A lot of those momentum and trump trades named like coin base, D J T and video tesla. And the cues were in the top ten.

A lot of cypher to activity to, they point out bitcoin and dog coin, one of those me cyp dio currencies at elon mask as chat. There is nscc factor for robot hood as well. Companies had a tense relationship to put him lightly without regulator under chairman gary dancer. Trump s has talked about firing cancer. It'll see what happens.

There are the agency, though you will also notice a Robert and gas potential removal seen as a win for roman at at least in any sort of less hostile stans towards ript u would be good thing for Robin han and coin base as well, catching in a active brokers chairman though time is Peter he. He's going to be coming up on closing bell over time. Next hours.

Got good stuff. K, V, only. Thank you very much. We're just getting started.

Hear up next more on today's big post election rally and the move in yields black rocks. Rick meter, i'll join us where lives in new york stock exchange. You're watching closing bell on cnc.

Find yields hiding their highest levels since the summer following donor trust election win and just ahead of tomorrow, spread decision for more on where they might head from. Here, let's bring in rick reader, black rock's chief investment officer of global fixin. Comes great to have you on such a huge day like this, right? Thanks for being here.

Next, I have my Scotts a big day. Big nights was lot night.

What's most on your mind today is, as you see, all of these different asset classes ring so heavily.

So it's pretty incredible. I mean, at first of all, the the results, we are incredible that obviously grades on through the evening. But listen on the equity market, I mean, this this is if you think about the growth dynamics that are to that are going to persist, actually, me, that's been already Operating at a good level.

The growth data that's going to to be good. The property of the equity markets pretty incredible. And and by the way, even that beneath the service, that drop in volatility that you're seeing is pretty no, I would say like you can own equities when involved and volatility drops, you can own some convexity.

And so that's been super exciting today. Obvious ly the dollar. And then the shift to the yield curve has been has been pretty extraordinary, returned about the show before the front end of the curve while yells have backed up and still is Carrying really well. So that shift in the yield curve been the, I think rightly so, moving, sleeping out quite nicely.

I mean, did did we just for gasoline on the the bull market and and throw a match on that? I mean, what what has actually happened here within the last, yeah I don't know, twelve hours yeah so .

you know I think I think the last of all the show I said, I don't really like multiples, but IT feels like we're long and we like equities. But he feels like being speeding down the highway to try and get to where you're going to and feel great. But it's probably going to keep going.

And there are two things happening, though. I think you are profound. One, the technicals in the equity market are extraordinary. The amount of cash that's out there, you don't really have any sellers.

Do you know a IPO market and the byblus or profound who you have an amazing technical into your point, know what? What was chAllenging is the multiples are aggressive and you have to count on to get to the forwards on these multiples, you have to count on significant earnings growth. Well, you just got a kicker of maybe nominal GDP stays considerably higher.

And by the way, I read with the commentary earlier, you've gotta keep nominal GDP up and that tell you out run the debt, but maybe we keep domino GDP up and then the earnings U. S. Companies are Operating leverage machines, a nominal GDP. And so you just got a got a nice tail win from that.

Well, I mean, it's good that you agree publicly on television with your boss is one of the peace.

Yeah so I it's what I do. And by the way, it's just straight math if you say to that. So the average crosses the united tes about just another three and a half percent. If we keep nominal GDP above four, four to five, you can actually and then you think about gash, there are things we should do. We ve got to do around spending.

There's other ways to actually create spend that's got some velocity to IT, if IT spent on infrastructure, that if you create that paradise, it's the only way that you can actually outward on the debt problem in this country. We've got to do a couple of things. We ve got to we got to end up producing the death, the span.

We got to get the interest costs down. And then ultimately, if you grow fast enough, I think it's just straight math that, that you can actually if that is the only way, I mean, quite Frankly, is the only way to do that's not a pernicious ous impact on the economy. This idea that we're just aggressively cut spends and the economy and until spend, it's just you don't get there.

But what do I do with the prospect of of higher growth as we spin IT now towards the fed decision tomorrow? And what policy is going to look like in twenty five? Um all of that obviously has the possibility of leading to protracted inflation, if not a pickup. So how should I think about, you know, the idea that, you know what, maybe they're not gonna cut even nearly as much as as we thought because they're not going to be able to.

So years across the first one, I think inflation, the descent of inflation has already happened like we didn't think inflation is coming down much for or any further form here, no matter, no matter what, we think inflations gona run in the mid tools for for next year. So I think that decent of inflations come down.

So if you are fear reserved, did I think about I mean, to me, it's a no brainer in terms of guys, you've got ta get that funds rate down to four. And if you get that funds rate, so you do you do at twenty five in november, you probably do a twenty five in december once you get the funds rate to two, you ve got inflation two and a half. And then there's a lot of policy evolution.

There's a lot of things are going to learn and then you make a determination from there. I don't think IT is that much of a chAllenge to get that rate down to a four level, which is still, I would argue, restrictive in many ways. But then IT becomes, you know, the question of do you do do you execute the further cuts in the next year? And that becomes questionable.

It's part of why I think the front of the yield curve, which is pricing that today, it's like, wow, there's not a lot of downside. And if you go further out the yield curve and then you've got a count on inflation, stay down, maybe the fed cutting more, then IT becomes a tough fer trade. And again, why I think you earning thirty year treasury ies is a bed on term premium bed on what going to do on the debt and the deficit. But you don't need to do IT with the yell as flat as IT is even though we've steep in somewhat.

Is there something that's up a lot today that doesn't make you a little uncomfortable? Like let's say you think, okay, well, it's up a lot. And I think you can go up actually a lot more. I'm thinking of things like the dollar, for example.

So yeah, I think the dollar, you know particularly against europe, I think the dollar can keep moving. You think about what the central bank has to do in europe, but what the cb has to do in terms do you want to get rate down a bit further? Think about we don't know what's going to have with the regard to IT to tariffs, what's going to have in the growth there.

So yeah, I do think that that's good. Got a more room, everyone. I think that, by the way, I think the one that's pretty incredible today is the high yellow market is up on the day you think about what's happen, the interest rate to know, I still believe in this.

This is income, income in in yielding asset that is impressive and that's got listening. And I think know every time I go through the data on what we're going to spend on capex around technology, AI data and or energy like that, I know that is just a persistent demand that I think is, you know, it's been a generation. You've seen anything of that sort of wilk.

So i'm not terribly surprised that continues to have in different forms, whether it's cloud, whether it's other parts of IT. Not terribly surprised about that. And finally.

I go no, no, please.

no. I think I think in your discussion, the financials I like the financials, and I think the a boy that you've got a series of tail wins in terms of with the shape of the curve is doing what they would ema we talk about once. That way. I have to think consumer financial credit ard is such a is if you believe you know this, this idea we are have a pernicious ous downturn and the consumer was going to a get hurt significantly when there was businesses credit card businesses at such a generate a lot of earnings said know that O E, I still think it's Price reason reasonably well.

Here is lastly and briefly, is something that you didn't like yesterday, that you like today, or something that you would just all together stay away from.

So this time, I think, you know emerging markets become interesting, know when they get cheap and off. Do we need to take a lot of risk in im today? Not really is if you're getting plenty of yield in other parts of the market, do I need to take a lot of risk in emerging market? So that part of the market today, I still think, is there's probably another point in time for investing in the their parts that I think you're interesting an acute, by the way, I do think that conversation earlier, I think india is interesting from from an acuity point of view. But but I know why that part of the market must and there are so many ways if you're fixing going to create yield and they're quite Frankly, I still think the big companies that have data and access the data, the equity market are going continued to perform.

believe IT there. Appreciate is always rk banks are being here, a big thanks market. Such a rick reader, black rock up next former fed by chair rich food back with us will give us this forecast for tomorrow.

S decision by the bed. What I might mean, fear money. And as we look out as we head out, I should say we're kind of look out to look at the major averages. We are back on the bell, look at that at me downs, a Better than fifteen hundred points, Better than three and half percent.

We're back on the government of this.

Well, now the election is over. The moro's bed decision is front and center joining me now, Richard cared of kiko, global economic advisor in the force of former federal reserve vice chairman.

And welcome back. Nice to see again, a good, good to see you.

It's going to .

happen tomorrow. Well.

I think IT with a high degree of confidence. I can say they're going to cut rates by twenty five h basis uh points. Uh, they may not do all that much more tomorrow.

I don't think there will be very significant changes to the statement. And of course, there are no dots. So I think all eyes is usual on the chairs press conference, but do expect twenty five basis points tomorrow.

How do you think a trump presidency is going to impact see next year?

I think i'm glad you finish the question in that week because I don't think it's really going to impact policy tomorrow or december. I think japan, the committee has made clear that rate decisions in twenty twenty four depend on twenty twenty four macro h data uh, but obviously, policy does need to be data dependent because inflation is still running a above the two percent a target um and the controls of fiscal policy um and other decisions, including our regulation, will have an influence on the outlook. And so I think there's the year evolves. The fed and markets will get Better sense of how that's all gonna work out um but I think is too soon to tell with any precision. Um what I could mean depending on the details of policy.

but what you see on like to say you what what is on paper is not necessarily what's in practice. So yeah, what's been talked about or at least speculated on, I think will make our baseline for for the yes. If if if we're able to reflect the the economy and the way that he's suggesting by certain policy manuvers that he'd like to do, does that increase the likelihood that the fed won't be able to cut as many times as maybe we thought even as we've dial back our expectations .

as IT is IT could be? Scott, you know, in september, the committee, more or less through the esp rejection, established a working baseline of fifty bps. This year will get twenty five tomorrow, perhaps another december uh and then potentially you know four more cuts next year.

Um I think those will depend on the flow of data, on particular of inflation, where to stay stuck um and not be drifting down towards target. We get fewer rate cuts a next uh, year, uh, I think um so I think that, that will be a function of of the outlook. If inflation continues to decline, I think the fed will certainly continue to adjust policy. And so I think in that sense, the traction that policy a has on the economy is really gone to be influencing the weight the fed thin about rates next year.

How are you thinking about the issue of the deficit? How might they be thinking about IT? As you know, some very smart people are opposite ing on IT, including lari. Think of a black rock who who says you can get out of this mess. You just got to keep nominal GDP growth high enough to do so well.

yes, but but I think what you have to recognize is unless you get even more surprises on productivity growth, higher Normal GDP growth could mean higher inflation. And I don't think the power fat is gonna sign up for for that. So that depends on how you get the nominal GDP h growth.

know. I think we have to acknowledge sky, you and i've been have done your show several times. The U S. Economy has been remarkably a resilient um we've had Better than expected growth in twenty, twenty three, twenty twenty four um and so there is a possibility of getting you know even stronger growth and that nominal GDP through that through that channel. But to the extent and highnam inal GDP would be driven by higher inflation, I don't think the power fed would sign up for that.

Leave IT there to be continued. I appreciate your time is always Richard, be well, thank you. right? That's it's cleared up. Next solar stocks are dropping, tests less stocks popping, we'll drill down on what's behind those big move is one more back.

We're less than fifteen from the bell to pick the Stevens. Now for a look at the biggest names moving in the solar space.

Give up. Hey, scot. Well, IT is carnage across the board. Four solar stocks with the ten fund tracking fourth worst day in four and a half years amid fears the president elect trump will try to repeal the inflation reduction act, which he is called the, quote, socialist Green new deal sina va.

Is the biggest loser, shutting half its value with sun run and array technologies, also big decliners. Now, analysts say a total repeal of the iron ray is unlikely, with J. P.

Morgan categorizing the changes as, quote, a scalable stead of a sledge hammer. But these socks very much trade on sentiment, and this creates a headline risk. Got now.

I kept. Thank you for p. Steve and shares of tesla, another big move on today session filled above joining us with more. And I think we can figure out the reasons why here filled.

Well, when you as close as elon mosque has become to the president to elect your shares of the stock of your company, definitely going to benefit shares of tesla. They're up today, fifty two week high tickling, three hundred dollars a share. Three things stand out about the relationship between elon mosque, president in elect trump.

First of all, is there a potential rollback in evy and senate that would definitely heard some of the smaller players in evs, but tesla has the size in the scale to withstand that. So essentially, king of the hill gets a little more share next to oversight will be limited. That's the expectation. IT was certainly limited in the first trumpet ministration. And that means robot taxi development should accelerate.

A lot of people are saying, you know what we thought before? Maybe we move that up six months a year as they try to roll out the the next boo taxi as you take a look and shares of test livers of the S M P five hundred, we're going back to the beginning of the binding administration. Check check that out, Scott. Difference in performance that may change under the next administration.

I noticed earlier too you uber was down earlier because the robot taxi idea, presumably now it's positive now, but certainly under performing relative field of many of the other big names. So we will watch all that. Thank you.

Is always that fill about still ahead. We're going to run you through the key earnings to watch you over time. We still have those coming down, including lifting.

Welcome, and tomorrow don't miss my interview double line. Jeffrey gun lock is back immediately after fed chair powder news conference, three black eastern time. You think we have a lot to talk about? I do the back after this.

We are now in the closing bell markets own C, N, B, C senior Marks, commented I, and told her to break down the crucial moments of the trading deck, plus to set up on some p earnings reports and over time, dear to boss on lift semma mody watching ball come and ARM holding mico turn to you first. What's most impressed you?

Well, first of all, pretty vociferous response. I mean, just the the sustained gains over the course of days, the first and you know days like this when you do have just this powerful upside， there are not one off minimum you can say that, that yes, sure. At some point it's going to be affaire, at some point are going to be overheated right now.

The S M P five hundred, it's kind of pushing above it's sort of train path that's running a little hot IT should cool off. That's one thing. The second piece of IT is it's not in discriminate across the board.

In fact, that might be one of the weaker market breath days for being up to and a half percent of the S M. P that we ve ever seen. It's like not even two to one up to down.

And you have twenty percent of the S M P down at least one percent. So the market is figuring out who's relatively Better and worse position. Most of that rate sensitive stuff down to retail utilities, housing related things like that.

So that's where we sit right now. And there's also room, all the stuff that's moving very, very aggressively today. Whether it's yields, whether it's the dollar, they're still below where we hit as recently as the spring.

So it's not as if we're kind of carbon out new ground and it's really adding this brand new dresser to the equity market. So all the long, it's been the case that if els are going up for a Better growth reasons or expectations, that's fine. Obviously, inflation expectations.

So taking higher in the market base measures, you have to keep an eye on all of that. But you know it's it's just tough to fight this time of year when the market had sort of settled back a little bit of of the pride a few weeks. And actually a lot of stocks are are based and ready .

to go a good for fifteen hundred points. Your point on retailer ers are obviously the prospect of terror is going to be most cute. There is the national retail federation president was talking about yesterday on on this network. So in other words, without tesler today, yes, and amazon today, the question ary space might be negative, if not barely positive. One of the strong as areas today lifted by those two stocks principally.

it's actually still gonna up. But yes, you're right, because housing related is all in there today. The whole gods are all in there.

So yeah, it's definitely kind of picking IT spot and that's not necessarily a negative thing. But you know it's funny because people are saying, well, look at that. The betting markets figured out the result. We have A A clean result the next day and all that to the good. Well, the stock market clearly had not fully rePriced for the implications of a clear trump in until today.

Right about a talk to about lift. I mentioned to fill what uber was doing today be in relation to tesla, the autonomous driving. But what do you see?

Well, live shares, they went the opposite way. They're higher ahead of that print on a bunch of autonomous vehicle deals. Following a ub footsteps says a robot taxi complex really hangs over ride sharing.

Investors have swung between seen robot taxi as an existent al threat verses a boon that could establish right cheering as platforms in a new age of driverless cars. That is the longer term. In the newer term, though, investors, they want to see healthy bookings, continue progress on profitability and color on the recently announced ash partnership. They can help a Better compete with its large arrival. All that that those got lift is down about four percent year today versus ubs, up about twenty.

I thank you. M watching calm and ARM tell more.

Two big and I conductors I got calm will provide a good gage on smart phone sales where unless are expecting the company to generate over six billion dollars and quarterly sales up about twelve percent over year. However, the state of its relationship with apple will be key at growing concerns that over time, apple could potentially pull away from qualcomm to design its five g chips ahead of the support.

Jack Morgan did cut its Price target on the stock to one ninety five from two ten, though maintaining an overweight rating. China will also be topical following trumps Victory as well. Any color on a potential takeover of intel? We're cine shares up over four percent ahead of its report.

And for ARM holdings, which is that to report earnings tonight is the licenser of designs to semiconductors. Investors are expecting twenty six cents adJusting on eight hundred eight million dollars in revenue. It's not in a heated dispute with coal com over a licensing fee. Investors will want to know if this dispute could lead to a larger legal battle. Scot and the potential cause we're looking at shares up about thirty percent in the past three months.

Appreciate that. Thank you very much. I mean, wonder you with the fed decision of mark and president trumps reelection, tive, if we need to further adjust, are calculus for both growth and then rate cuts in the year ahead. As I asked which car.

I think we're definitely in the process of adJusting where we think the destination of short term rates is, and we were doing that already. I think that's what's fascinating about this process is it's acting as more than accelerate to some of the trends that we were already watching. Economy, surprising to the upside, pretty good productivity growth, by the way, recently and even is now expected that to continue.

And you know, a little sticking is on the inflation. We've pauses in terms of the disinflationary process. All that stuff was happening. And now maybe that's more of the same way we gonna get confirmation of something like that. We've been running in one's growth, that really strong levels for a while percentage.

The deficit as a percentage of GDP has been going down for a couple of years for that very previous is that we should just discover this possibility that we can grow faster than the the happening since the peak deficits in the the mic years. And neither we've had fast to grow. But yes, that the idea being you can kind of really make up some ground on that front.

And you'll say, I mean, look, so much is yet to be known. I mean, we really talk about about spending cuts from the government. They're not going to really hinder the economy.

Are we really talking about the mass deportations, all this other stuff that is sort of maybe the more complicated implications of what happened. It's supposed to the right up front. Let's have the Candy first and we're going to get tax clarity and we're going to have perhaps a little bit more of .

the regulatory environment, if else mean the very think of bed may may just reset the narrative in a different way about the possibilities of dealing with the deficit in the next you couple of years in which I was viewed largely as well. I don't know how you're going to deal with this become a problem.

but I was always semantics in my view. In other words, that was always people insisting that four percent or four and eight percent and ten year was you the market was afraid of further deficit is supposed to you know, that's pretty much right for where the economy is growing. Clearly, it's not key holding the economy back very much.

Clearly, it's not a really unusually high rate based on history. So yes, I do think that changes the conversation, but is also really in a way kind of validates tes the way that the economy in the markets have been dealing with. Rates in the deficit levels to this point will .

leave IT there. We are obviously going to go out with a monster gain today in so many different national products will highlight stocks goes up Better than fifteen hundred points right now.

I'll see tomorrow .

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