Closing Bell: Can You Trust this Market? 11/12/24
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At work of two closing balloon on my sands, told in for Scott Walker, we are alive and post nine of the new york stock exchange. This make a break hour begins with the rally taking a rest on the seventh days since the U. S.

Election after a swift near five percent surge since the start of last week in the S P. Five hundred. Let's take a look at our score card with sixty minutes to go in regulation that S N P are barely off right now. Actually just pretty close to the flat line had been down more than half a percent around the midday lows down industrials. But a little more the outperformer recently is settle back up more so is down about six tenths of one percent.

And as that one hundred hanging in there, there would have been sideline in the immediate rally after the elections, with the likes of the video and microsoft today playing a bit of catchup, you see each up one and two percent there, giving support to the broad market. A small cap process, two thousand, in a more note, will pull back after a blistering sprint to the verge of a record high on yesterday. Is that one point six percent, but still up more than nine percent month, the day the treasury market reopened after the monday veteran's day holiday, and the sellers have rushed in person in the ten years years, I see what's back about four point four percent at this four point four three.

It's not far toward those, up from those immediate post election highs in yield. And that takes a store talk the table. Can the markets pro growth risk on message of the past week be trusted? And how has a changed to set up into the years? Final stress.

So let's ask our panel so far as liz Young Thomas met life investment management drew and thorough e investment management Emily level everyone here with me a post now i'm great to see all thanks. We've been I guess the question here is that was a pretty assertive you know, this is what the election means. The anticipated policy makes prosecutable small cap, and we've talked about IT. There's also returns that we're in place before, and I wonder if it's a matter of where we are right now as we as we assess um where the markets have gone.

Well, I think yet you're right, first of all, to note that the trend was in place before. So all we really did was give IT more fuel to keep going, and that's what we've witnessed now. We obviously made back a lot of what we pull back today.

I think don't focus too much on the one day move, right? It's not as if OK it's over. We had this big you four season and now we're done with IT.

I think they're still room for things to keep growing. And and you have to also think about the momentum is intact. The internals are strong.

We've got seventy four percent of the S M P trading above their two hundred day moving average, sixty eight percent of the rustle trading above the two hundred day moving average. So there's just there's a lot of tail in behind this. And I have learned the hard way that fighting momentum in this market is a losing battle.

So I still think that there's more room to go yields today, sending a little bit of a mixed signal. And I think maybe stocks are starting to get tripedal ous about that. I think when yields get to four and a half and god forbid, approach five, that's when it's really going to pressure stocks. And obviously, read in front of a CPI report, I think that makes sense. A little bit relativity in the bad mark?

Yeah obviously a little bit, maybe a sensitivity there. And drew w, we waited on that a little bit because it's kind of incredible to see the market just decide that we're onna get a reacclimatise growth. The last jobs report was a soft to one that kind of put the the fed on the dubious past. Now we're pricing out rate cuts and there is this general anticipation that we have a growth driven move higher in yellow.

How do you wow, I mean, the in place for employment before the storm adjusted numbers that came out less as everyone discounted them. But the reality of IT is labor market is slowing. We're seeing that. If you look at the small business survey today, they're component of that, that suggest we should be expecting unemployment ate to move higher the next couple of months.

So if you talk about you know, the market thinking about higher inflation risk and then pricing that the ten year notes and the idea that maybe you're going to get some slowing and activity but not enough really to get the fed to kind of move aggressively. Know the heart despite the landing is the landing and you tend bump er around a lot. And I think that's what we're seeing, where growth is going to be slowing, inflation going to be somewhat stable and that means yields are overdone at these as .

they shouldn't be the side, they shouldn't be the size. So in other words, um it's based on a premise of a reacclimatise not expect you're .

not going to get at any time soon. And in the meantime, you're going to get get data that suggests that there's actually to confirm the slowing that we saw before the election.

And Emily, I guess, you know one of the ways to read how the market has, has taken the news the last week is, well, we have one less reason to worry about an out right downtown. Maybe we're going to give the data little bit wider birth because, you know, we think there's going to be policy help along the way. Has the general investment kind of backdrop change for you much at all?

You know, not very much. I would say i'm we're really focused on investing in companies, not not in you know of broad markets or our countries, and I would say know the other sort. So there's the deregulation part, which is obviously very little and pro business, but then there are these other contents to policies terrify immigration, which you're actually you know spending cut, cut of the that our government would actually quite countless cynically and and could be constructed ary. And so you know, when we think about investing for our clients, we want to focus on, okay, where are the companies that are in control of their own destiny, that have the ability to grow earnings through a variety of different cycles? And how are we out of balancing the growth and an industry outlook within our funds so that we're able to provide positive earnings growth, th and our performance for our clients through any economic cycle?

One of the talking points was that companies themselves were saying on conference calls and elsewhere, well, we might wait until after the election for some kind of clarity, wherever that might mean and however that might affect their own business. Do you think that happening in the companies you're following that there's any real kind of shift in priorities or acceleration or pulling back from one area another?

I do think so. I mean, I think you heard this a little bit with some of the know anette ally around consumer spending and investments as well. And we saw with some of the rental equipment businesses saying, you know, people are holding back on relevance on maybe smaller project starting in part of that is rates.

But I think part of IT was political uncertainty, ty. So I do expect that could be, you know, a little bit of a boost. But in terms of sort of fundamentally what's changed in the outlook for the economy, I would I would say that there is a potential for more inflation on the end of you know the spectrum where trump is implementing more of these um protections of policies.

And um and then there is also you know the potential for that to have an impact on already relatively we can consumer. So we're really focused on, you know again, investing in these businesses that can grow sort of we saw shop fy today as an example, companies that can gain share in an environment that can grow earnings because they're seeing great Operating leverages in their business. Those are the type of businesses that we want to be industry for our clients in this environment that feels, you know pretty rich, valuation wise. So you really need to have confidence and that earnings 的 growth continuing to to beat expectations。 Yeah.

that is an interesting starting point when you talk about where valuations are, where credit spreads are incredibly tired already. And I guess IT changes the equation in terms of what that even means. If we have you kind of growth supporting policies and the fed trying to trim rates all to the good, but has the market already front room and some of that?

Well, I think there's a lot of cross current in even just that questions. If you think about the headwinds that we might face or that the market might face that we weren't facing the beginning of this year, we're on pricing fed cuts. We've now got only about a fifty to sixty percent chance of twenty five pips in december, a pain january.

And now we're doing this on the expectation of actually tighter monetary policy then we had before. To that end, though, you still have a feed that seems pretty comfortable with where things are. They're comfortable with where the labor market is. They're comfortable with the direction that inflation is going.

I think the market right now has almost decided that growth the growth offset will be big enough to stand in the way of any other headwinds that might come its way between, let's say, now and inauguration or between now and, let's say, february. There are a couple other things that kind of rock the boat. We've got the debt ceiling happening january first, but that's expected to be offset by draining the treasury general account.

So there's a lot of things that I still think could rattle markets, but you can't fight the sentiment here. And I think the surveys that we're going to start getting, the survey data that we get, which is we refer to a soft data starting in november, is gonna really positive because people just feel Better. The uncertainty is behind us. This process class idea is now in front of us, and there's sort of A, A positive vibe check that's going on. So I think we're going to get some positive sentiment indicators that should at least Carry us through the end of the year.

Yeah, that's almost certainty we're going to continue this in sec. But do you want actually get over to Steve leason? Mini apple is fed president neil cascara speaking in the last hour. Steve has some of the details. Yeah.

lizz has the general sentiment. I come back to that just a second. I been the apples for president cash Carry, suggesting his inclining to cut rates further near turn, but offering doubts about how far the fed may cut into next year.

He said that he plays surprised to the upside. IT could give the fed pauses cutting in december that's implying he would cut in the absence of an inflation surprise in december. And that's how the markets Price cost Carry added. The fed is unnecessarily close to neutral. Now that's more evidence the fed would cut.

But he went on to say IT, maybe that the neutral has gone up at least in the short term because of, among other things, higher productivity, which would be a higher neutral rate that is kind of accessing fewer cuts in the medium term in a higher terminal rate or stopping point for the fed cost cost offer that he expects the strong labor market we see now and the economy to continue into the coming months. On the election, he said the fact won't model new policies from the new administration or the new congress, so we'd become clear what they are. Terrace are not viewed inflationary.

If they are one off, they could become inflationary with a series of retaliations. When I asked whether he was concerned the president, like would interfere in fed policy, said he confident the federal focus on economic goals and not respond to pressure from wasted. So mike, this idea about next year being a little more and certainly a developing theme from the federal is over this point, which I think so yeah.

And this kind of comes into tune with obviously how the markets have have tried to a kind of replace things at this point.

Yeah, i'm looking, mike, at that pricing. And IT is dynamic, I guess, is the best way to say IT. We have a cut building for december, january, a pause and were around fifty, fifty for march.

But maybe the best way to look at this is the november twenty, twenty five fed funds contract. And if we have that available, I don't know if I asked for IT before I wanted to talk about IT. Anyway, it's about three ninety.

What does that tell you? That tells you the fed is pretty close to where I was. I was two eighty. So the market has baked out one hundred basis points, and now it's really awake and see it's depended upon tomorrow, we get the inflation numbers that's important. Later on, we're gone to get some other data as the month goes by as this was suggested. And then we have to start thinking about what policies and what is the net inflationary result and growth result of all those policies that could .

be coming down. The pack are steep. Thanks very much. What you read on all that? How just interacts with where the bomb market this .

position right now? And for me, the biggest thing is trait is higher yeah uh and most likely it's going to ue to move higher the world in the early stages of a productivity cycle. And the productivity cycle, I think, is going to make the early nineties like a little soft, right? It's going to be a very big productivity cycle because it's happening across multiple all industries at the same time.

And then you have the overlay of artificial intelligence, which will allow those interactions to those areas will be able to interact with each other and actually boost productivity even higher. So I think if you're going to lead to a giant productivity cycle, you're talking about a higher neutral rate. IT means the feed right doesn't cut much more.

That's all of you. We think they have another seventy five in them this cycle and they're done and they will probably skip december because I don't think that, that is going to be as much as I think may be a little markets weakening. I think you know our views that inflations can be somewhat sticky here for a little bit, and that'll be enough to get the people on the fed who are concerned about inflation to to just take a pause.

That is an interesting part of the do know kind of made the point here and there that when you have the fed starting to pivot to be little more concerned about growth, the thing they're looking for is labor market deterioration, right? There are most focused on the weakest st of the components of the whole economic. Yeah.

I tend to think that the fed focuses on one thing at a time. We'd like them to focus on two things at a time they said they'd do Mandate, but in reality, the either looking at inflation or looking at growth and use us for looking at growth. They are trying to look at the labor market because that's where the other southern datas and they never look pose at the same time.

And so right now, that seems like you they've kind of seconded the inflation story away a little bit. They're focusing on growth. But I think if you get A A number that seems sticky tomorrow, especially after some of the other sticky inflation data we ve gotten, they're going to have to wonder if that downturn is stolen place.

Emily, one of the, I think, standard pieces of the playbook here in the last week, and this goes back to twenty sixteen two, is that the us. Might be Better positioned either outgrow the world or be a source of of a destination of capital. You focus globally. What IT does that make sense to you? Or the opportunity that still seem good overseas?

I think in the short term, that doesn't sense. I mean, you just look at know what the dollar is done over the past over the past week. That's something as international industry that we have to fight again.

And you do have these long cycles where the dollars very strong and we've seen now. And I I think that this will be continuation. I think um you know we need to find businesses that are able to to benefit from that outside of the U.

S. I think that you know the real benefit of investing outside of the U. S. As you can have these incredible high quality businesses with the exposure to the same structural growth.

A I, for example, you know, that are sort of key picks and shovels and producers of this, but they're trading at lower valuation. So you know, in the long run, what we think drives the stock market is earnings growth. And so if we can, you know dalan on the earnings growth and be very confident about that, we think that over time, that, sorry, we will play out. But in the near term, I do you think the dollars I had went .

for international investing and there is just on the on the earnings point, seeing a lot of stuff now we're most of the way through the season where it's like, well, IT wasn't a ganging busters. Be rather anything like that. But if you take out energy, IT looks still like we're on track. Is that start to enable people to look in a more favorable way at the current valuation? And just wait IT out.

I think that does if you're looking at at on a broad market basis because but we've talked about a lot through twenty, twenty four earnings have been dominated by those major players, and we needed some of the other sectors to come in and pick up the slack if the tech players weren't onna dominate as much. And that has happened.

And I believe the numbers, if you take energy out, I think our earth is actually about eleven percent, maybe twelve percent, something like that, which is in line with what we've seen for a lot of the prior quarters. In coming into this quarter, expectations were only about three to four percent. So this has been pretty good. If for running out, lets say eight percent growth, we pretty much doubled what we thought I would be the trouble with earnings right now is that the bar has gotten so high, the market has raised the bar so high that you have to beat and you have to be exceptional at beating and then you have to beat and you have to raise guidance in order to just get even a muted upside in the market. If you be and don't raise guidance, you don't even lower anything, you get punished.

So you didn't beat the byline hurdle from the most aggressive muli manager headphone part.

That's so I think that's what we're gna face in twenty twenty five expectations. They are still pretty high, but they have been coming down as far as earner's growth in twenty five. But I think that hurdle just continues to get higher.

And drew, finally, just cross asset classes. You sort of suggested you think things are pretty fully Prices across the Robert for having some kind of multiyear productivity boom and and other things that seem like they're falling into place. Is that not justify some of that?

I mean, IT argues for thinking carefully about I could use instead of instead of other access because, you know, if inflation goes down, right kind of somewhat credit negative. But yeah, IT doesn't have to be margin negative ah for these companies if there's a productivity story got IT.

yeah. So in other words, equity have of a path out more so than some other right. Great tokyo.

Thanks so much as you, Emily. Let's ended over two kate Rogers for a look at the biggest names moving into the cloth. I K.

hey, there are my so shares of ties and foods are climbing up more than seven percent. That's after the poultry processor reported fourth quarter results that beat wall street expectations, also raised its quarterly dividend by two percent. The company is said the results were boosted by its improving chicken cells and g nova stock is tumbling after C E.

O Scott tragic told the financial times he's holding off on his search for new offshore wind turbine orders, saying he wants to wait for market conditions to improve. The announcement comes shortly after Donald trump's reelection, which has added some uncertainty to the sector. As you can see, shares are down around seven percent. My back over you.

absolutely. Thank you very much. Another big mover were keeping an iron is am jen and ellia pebble is here with the details on what's behind that. Angela? Ga.

hey, mike. Yet kenter fit jelled analysts putting out a note this afternoon saying that they found some conserving data from engines face one trial of maritime de. Remember that the experimental of pity drug that we all have our eyes on now, people on the drug saw decrease in their bone mineral density.

That, according to the analysts, they lay out two scenarios here, maybe that patients just are losing this bone mineral density naturally during the course of weight loss treatment, or this be a non starter because IT does look like it's dose dependent based on these results. Now maritim works differently, the novo and I G L P ones and canters pointing out that this has been an unknown from that phase one data. Now we've reached out to amend, and i'll let you know when we hear back.

We have not hear back from them yet. And amy has already said that it's moving forward with maritim interface three, and we're expecting the full phase two results by the end of this year. So they're still luck to come from this. But you can look today, stocks is down about seven percent.

mike. yeah. And delicate. And that moves come on. Heavy volume is taking about one hundred and fifty points out of the dw Jones industrial average. Thanks very much.

We're just getting started here up next, more good standing Sherry poll is back to break down her year and playbook. And later I look at the key in supporting results after the ballot. We are like in new york stock change. You're watch closing bell on cm.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C N, B C, Jessica adding, go, follow and listen to C, C business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks taking a breather from the post election pop, but the major averages in a number of sectors are still up nearly five percent more just this month. So here's the rally gotten ahead of itself or is there more runway ahead? Let's ask Sherry paul, of more distantly private. Well, Sherry, good to see you. Great to see you. So you have to Operate where the long term in the short term, you know, to come together and figure out what is change of what hasn't maybe when IT comes to things like, you know, this new policy pressure, anything else what your sort of top line thoughts of this?

My first for thank you for helping me my top blind thoughts are that when IT comes to investing on a whole lot has changed because my strong recommendation to to clients right now is to invest in enduring themes that are orange driven, that trans said presidential or policy politics um so those themes continue to be attack. They drove the market this year.

They drove the market last year that they continue into twenty twenty five center on a atheistical, which we can get into a little bit more with regard to policy, that we're back to policy volatility. And that typically brings three to five percent swings in the market as the conversation around what might happen continues to accelerate. Um but what we know about policy, even with the republicans, have a triple crown IT usually means that they'll be a lot of talk and also some theyll be a decision day. Um so we're hedging that, but we're not necessarily investing in those outcomes because those are conversations.

They're not earnings based. Now when you mention the longer term themes that you think remain on course, like the air investment team, I can imagine a world, if didn't happen to have an election this year to where maybe there would be a little bit of a pretty good debate going, honest, to whether we've hit some kind of a plant toe. I know there was no some talk last week about this. Maybe the next generation of ChatGPT is just not bearing, is much fruit terms of acceleration and also some conductors, it's really hit or missing their so I just wonder where that particular theme sets up for you.

right? Well, you know, it's a great point. I think where is this is in the larger conversation and the globalization. So deglobalization, which requires a reimagine of supply chain and onshore manufacturing and also disrupts with the human labor composition of globalization, was which can be expensive.

And so I really believe that, that becomes the accelleration around A I, uh, particularly and automation and manufacturing wherever you can replace human later, you're removing yourself from the geopolitical consequences of those outcomes from a manufacturing standpoint. And reminds of me a lot about what happened during the pandemic. Were that in the pandemic, I think like less than fifty percent of people in the country had ever deposited a check via their iphone and h. So that became an acceleration of what we invested in at that time, was the remote of everything. Now it's the automation of everything, uh, that would position companies for cost production, productivity enhancement and also controlling outcomes in a world that may continue to the global lives.

It's interesting because if you hear the stated intent of a lot of the a policies is not just the global ization, but bring physical manufacturing work back here. You know, this very long lived kind of objectives, not necessarily companies making a decision to just get more efficient or or find IT a way around. Well.

that's why I love about the cafe markets, right? Because there is. So again, we go back to enduring things that actually drive earnings.

That's where investors should be, and that's how our portfolios are set up right now. Now they reimagining a difference sort of U. S. Space manufacturing renaissance may be multi year out. It's also fundamental inflation from a costan point to corporations. And so the incident of there then is, well, if we're going to do that for greater political civil, then we should be pushing automation in a way that can bring about cost savings. And maybe we end up in a baLance which as IT relates to earnings and profitability.

I wonder, I doubt your particular clients would have really had A A very sudden change of mood over the last few days. But the market character really did somewhat shift in the direction of a lot, a little got lathered up in some areas, small cat meme stocks, crypto, a lot of the stuff that moves fast, tesla IT. Seems like I just got this birth of energy into IT and other stuff maybe got neglected or or set aside. Does any that speak to you and in terms of whether risk appetites are rising or or if it's just a passing well, you know.

it's a really good point because we've got like lots of money sitting in cash accounts that are taking payments ts every time but cuts rates. So if you want a little bit of taste to what formal looks like we got in the last seven days, and that just requires a mental ship, people to get out of cash into a market that will likely continue to accelerate.

What about just fixed income as the categories ies is doing its job in a portfolio you're not interested in terms of based on what what the economy might do?

yes. You know for people to say, why should I continue to own fix income? But right now, for us, it's an air bag in a portfolio that's really how we describe as the clients.

And so if you're extending now is not too late to extend, especially get the bumps and yields like we did over this concern around inflations associated with terrible icy, which should drove the ten year of but if you're extending out in that five to seven year, arrange should get a nice little pay bump in terms of Price appreciation as rates continue to go lower in your locking and good income that provides an income hedge to the innovation trade, which just by nature will bring more volatility to a portfolio which is different than something going wrong. 哼， that is the key for people is that volatility will start to Spike. IT doesn't mean that things are going.

I just think you say that I was just pointing out yesterday, if you looked at like the second half of the nineties, IT was actually a pretty volunt market. The vicks never really one below twenty. And yet markets were going up and IT was capitalizing a lot of a we .

were in the front into the innovation rex volatility. This is an innovation volatility that's different than oh, while things are breaking volatility. Uh, so a reset is not a recession and reset is not necessarily a correction just to reset sometimes.

Yeah, see you forget one of those. Sorry, good to say thank you all right up next early coin base and Robin hood d investor were shown Williams react to bit coins fig bounds plus where he's seeing opportunity in tech post election. And don't forget you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell podcast. On your favorite podcast, we will be right back.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I see nbc. Is Jessica adding to follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get to your podcasts?

There's widespread .

optimism that the trumpet administration, which is stated that they wish to embrace crypto currencies and make amErica the center of crypto currency innovation worldwide, is gonna have uh, a much more forward looking policy towards this new industry.

And I I think what you're seeing is the market reacting to that in the White house um with president prompted a full quoted endorsement of crypto to and so we couldn't be in a Better position to finally get some clarity and start to rebuild the crypto industry in amErica again. That was robot hood CEO lad Kenneth and coin base CEO brian armstrongs speaking on the future of crypto o currency into a trump presidency. Bitcoin trading new record levels and up thirty two percent since the election.

To me now post nine is venture capitalist for Shawn Williams, his nearly investor in both Robin hood and coin base. Among several of the things going to see you again. I mean, just when IT comes to the the crypto piece of this obviously burst of excitement, most of the storyline as well or promote brother adoption in and maybe to be a little bit less kind of chasing after some of these businesses based on allegations, fraud. But what how does that look to you in terms of whether there in the industry behind IT and whether it's still a right .

investment opportunity? Well, first of all, I feels really surreal to see the founders as publicly traded to CEO. Now when I met them almost a decent ago and we were completely different environment, I think, with cyp do in the digital currencies, unlike the public equity market, you have the technicals and fundamentals in public equities, right? You have the technicals in cyphered by sale dynamics, but the fundamental are largely depending on regulatory and kind of public intimate. We're in the environment now where I actually think the fundamental will outstrip the technicals for the first time in a very long time. So I think you'll see a lot of explosion and you'll see that growth and you'll continue you to see the adoption kind of take place.

Main street, what are the components of the fundamental? It's tough to chase this down like when really want to get down because a few years ago is supposed to be like new ways of lending and all the rest. That seems like that's calm down.

I have really thing is about the regulatory and the public sense me is a speculative asset class, right? So what are the components of artful fundamentals, right? It's how much people are excited about IT, how well the adoption is, how you know sexy to assets classes. So up to this point, he has been all about technicals, but now the undammed als are largely being skilled by the regulatory and by the public environment.

When IT comes to technology isolates the publicly traded stock, I mean, there's a lot of divergence even within like sunni conductors and software feels like the markets really aggressive and trying to separate winners from from losers. How do things look to you just in terms of a lot of the major sources of new companies, new growth themes?

Yeah, well, my job is to pick winners around the curve. So we're looking five, twenty years out. What's happening now is this huge tech tonic police shift that's happening with A I i've only seen the two other times in the last twenty five years, right?

We have the internet and we have software taking over the world, right? So now with A I, everything that's related to IT is rising, the entire ocean is shifting, and all of the companies are benefiting from IT. So in our world job to look around the corner, what's going to be next?

Of course, we're making money and investments now in this A I space. But the things are coming around the corner. Quantum computing and in quantum protection, protecting security and infrastructure from all of the power that the quantum computers have. So think of siber security, yes, for quantum computing as quantum protection. So those of the things that we're thinking about, but in this environment were super excited about .

everything that that seems like this. Yeah, it's a few steps down the line IT see to me, to me because part of the the story line when IT comes to the A I build out is this is one of those big shifts where scale matter so much. You have the data, you have to be able to invest very heavily. So at almost more, excuse the advantage toward the establish massive company.

hundred percent when we were investing in coin base and Robinson d in instar twelve years ago, they would raise of five or ten million dollars series a. These A I companies are raising at two hundred and fifty million dollar series a and are valued at a billion or two billion dollars because they are raising five hundred million dollars in the first year valuation, doubling, you know, every six months. So that's a complete that's a tectonic plate shifting thing where inter card is kind of AIoT internet of thing, a marketplace type thing. A much bigger scale, much bigger team, requires much bigger assets.

So IT would seem to me then if you're looking for founders, you have an idea and maybe they can kind of work their way into some corner of of an industry. It's probably harder to to find that many of them. I mean, who can get to that scale quickly?

Well, you're not only looking for those wales in those big AI companies. I get shark on shark this and we look at tones of consumer products and we know that entrepreneurship democratized well creation and and a drives growth in this economy. But they're plenty of areas outside of A I that people are still investing in, even none. Technology businesses are even booming and bright.

And if you're looking just across the landscape, I mean, things like the possibility of terrorists or how what are the tax rates going to be in a year and a half? How much of of that has to enter into your process?

You know, again, we're long term investors. I know when the public at me markets people a quarter of a quarter, but for us were five in ten years out. So we don't really get too caught up in short term political, social, economic situations that are happening now.

Of course, this affects funding IT affects economy IT affects public centimo and consumer confidence. But for us, our companies are even profitable until well linked red him being public in five years after the IPO is when they really opened a speak into profitability. sure.

I knew you're also involved in the nfl. Partner of the land of balkans sports is now just IT seems like this feeding frenzy. People saying it's now an alternative of asset class.

It's not just you know this almost trophy peace type of an asset. Does that change the attractiveness of IT? Does a change anything about you know what these businesses might be worth?

Yeah, it's always been an asset class IT just hasn't been open to private equity and to people other in billionaire most what's attractive about sports outside of the nfl in a house kans, which obvious to speak about, but it's the reoccurring revenue stream that sport seems get from media rights and that's very similar to software companies.

So a lot of VC and private equity guys love the profile because their revenue is expected in for ten years from tear one creditor, ors. And they know that the top shows are all sports program, right? So this asset class is going to grow with non core late to the stock market, very lowest profiles. And of course, you have emerging sports industries as well, the pickle balls and unprofitable leagues, but those are more like early stage, you know, leagues versus the later stayed lease and all profitable, completely different .

risk return profiles. sure. I see the kind of start up leagues. They want to get a little bit of the media rights and have IT work for them.

I want to yeah no, there's no doubt about that.

But again, I guess the question I guess one question I would have is how do you feel the you know the professional sports landscapes apparent dependence on you, the betting piece of IT large the market or is at risk?

Well, I was investor in drain. Your online sports betting was one of the big themes that was driving revenue group for professional sports teams and league s in general, international expansion and media arrives online sports betting. So I think some of the emerging leagues are betting on being able to land those types of revenue streams from media rights and online sports and bedding.

It's still unproven and we really don't know the big four of sea dominate in this space. yeah. But look, I think there's a room for more than you know four winners in this space.

Ah well, the big four also had the history in the data and you need the data for the Better for great to thank thank you. Right up next, we're tracking the biggest mobs as we head into the close cake is danny back with the hi again.

My one stock is climbing after an activist investor unbuild. The stake that mean to walk is coming up next.

About sixteen minutes till the closing, ballets get back to kate for a look at the key stocks to watch.

check IT hi make shares of honeywell are popping after activist investor allied management disclosed its five billion dollars stake in the industrial. The investor is pushing honeywood to divide itself along its two primary business lines, aro space and automation. Honey, well, as you can see, up around four percent and ten cent music is sliding. After the chinese streaming service posted its q 3 result， the company reported that revenue from its social entertainment services business fell nearly twenty four percent year over year. Those shares are down nearly five and a half percent back over you make.

Okay, thank you. Disney reports before the bell on thursday, and the clock is taking on incoming board chair games gorman's process to identify babbage's successor. Jollie born joins us now with a look at what we know now. Hi, july.

Hey, my well incoming board chair, James board. Gorman is known for running a smooth succession process for himself and Morgan Stanley, where he's credited with incentivising the two runners up to stay. He's also known for his former consulting attention to protocol, creating systems and rigor source is tell me now going on is a chance to potentially over deliver and surprised with the successor announcement earlier than expected like he did back Morgan stanly. I'm also told that the board wants to get the media off of disney back now.

While two of the four internal candidates, entertainment coca, dana waldin in parkhead judge tomorrow are seen as the leading contenders to replace, egor gore is working with a recruiting firm on outside candidates. E, A, C, O, Andrew's son has been floated, though I hear the board is more likely to go with an internal candidate than with him. Now sources tell me the message from the board is that succession will not be delayed again. Mike.

all right. h. Julia will look for for more clues as as these reports. Thank you getting some news now out of OpenAI, Steve. Quebec has that for Steve.

Hey there, my gig opening, I cofounder, greg brock men is returning to work after a leave of absence. This is according to a new report just out in bloomberg. Broken man took a leave of absence earlier this year.

This also came amid of just a wave of top executive and cofounder accidents at the company. Most recently, IT was cco mira morality, who departed the company. But blue berg, reporting now that broke win, told employees he is returning to work and working with CEO sam melt man for a new role at the company.

What he'll be moving for, we've reach up to open up for comment, and i'll let you guys know when we hear back my alright, Steve, thank you. Still ahead, inter card among the key names supporting and over time will break down top themes and metric. Every investor needs to be watched about you.

We are now in the closing bell market zone. We are on earning slot with three reports out in overtime today that are on our rather to VOA on instincts take Stevens on deal ctr and context r with flutter. So dear jack said as a forensic er so inter card is the best performing by far of the major good economy stocks this year, doubling its value.

Investors are for continue double digital top line growth and Better profitability. As always, guidance will be key. Last quarter to, as I look, was a ad of expectation sending shares higher. I'll also be looking for color on its our partnership inked earlier this year to chAllenge door dashes dominance dash partnering with lift. So could that present a new chAllenge for instant ard?

And finally, its smart shopping carts offering is expanding. So how might that impact mart? Inspective.

all right, dear, thank you people. Oxide all reporting and and been a rough, rougher od for the stop. That's right.

Micou dental has actually under performed to the broader energy sector this year and results we know will be impacted by the decline in commodity Prices of the already release its oil and gas Price realizations for the quarter, which for the us were down six percent and a twenty six percent uh, relative to cut OS numbers. Now during the quarter of the company closed at twelve a billion dollar acquisition of crown rock.

And so analysts will be looking for an update on the synergies as well as plans to shore up the baLance sheet given the company's leverage ratio is now higher than its peers. Oxy has also invested quite a bit in carbon capture products. And so commentary on how they're viewing the inflation reduction act, which has credits for carbon capture, will be interesting. We heard from x on CEO daring woods this morning who said that their low carbon division also relies on those incentives. For any commentary there might will be interesting.

Yes, so many cross current paper has relates to policy in this group. I mean, there was also the commentary that obviously greater incentives to dw more domestically is really feeding into what already looks like a pretty well supply market.

That's right. While president Donald trump has said he wants to drill, president elect Donald trump has said he wants to drill. Baby drill is really unclear whether or not the industry will actually heed that call because, of course, as you said, the market audio looks oversupplied.

We had OPEC out with its world report today, bringing down its demand forecasts. And so it's not as if executives wanted increase their output so much into a market that's already looking pretty well. Supply for twenty and twenty .

five and not too. You know, people were too heart, pippa. But I did notice that natural gas actually has a little bit of a sport in the last couple of days. And we just talking about whether here there are other forces.

yeah. So we did see some production come offline in the gulf of mexico. I had of that storm.

And so that was about sixteen percent of output in the gulf was offline. And then we also had some pipeline madness in the permanent, which also reduced output. We also have drillers being cautious given the decline in that gas that we've seen recently. And now finally, I mean, here in new york, and we're starting to get a Robert of that fall weather at long glass. And so that has to definitely increased the bullish case and also they was heavily shorted and so cashing some of those shorts off guard, certainly increasing that big bounds we saw yesterday.

especially yeah the end of summer in november ah in the northeast I had is a fact thankful apa, a katsu, a flutters a new name .

for some to some. This is the parent of fan do. But the real story for flutter is like a line out of Jerry Myers, like, show me the money.

Come on. Show me the money. The street is expecting earnings of ten cents a share on three billion dollars of revenue.

Fluttering growth engine is the united states, and it's putting all its efforts here and listing on the new york stock exchange. And january looks like it's really paying off at investor day in september. The executive teams work at all the reasons that investors should expect solid returns.

IT insists its product innovations are leading industry. They showed off new customizable bedding options, launching wka, a really popular slot machine game on the force of casinos. They launched that on eyeglass, and its C.

E. O insists its size and its international scale create it's this firewheel of customer acquisition and profits and performance that help us stay the number one sports book and I gaming casino in the nation. The stock was down a little bit today, but up to year to date, about forty percent. So IT really has performed incredibly well after IT listed on the exchange january.

exactly. And it's what I met by a relatively new name to some us investors after that new york stacking change list context a thank you very much. We will look out for those numbers as we hated in the final minute of trade, and we are looking at just the modest pulled back across the board in the major index.

The S. P. Five photo did rally up from middle toward the flat line about an hour ago, but is now down about a quarter of one percent. The russia two thousand, that one point eight percent. Keep in mind, it's been the leader kind of out of the blocks this month post election.

If you are giving back almost two percent of that today, dw, industrial average also weight down by M G to a ge large degree is also down that point eight, uh, or eight, nine percent. A market breath, definitely negative and actually has been rather like for a while. Right here.

We have only twenty five percent of all new york stock exchange stocks. To the outside, the leading stocks, there are some of the old magic cap winners of the first cap of this year, with the video and microsoft doing their part to support hundred, five hundred as well. A tony, well, national dot 道， 我 肯定 是 overtime with more than britain and job。

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