Closing Bell: What’s Not to Like? 11/08/24
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Welcome to closing balloon mix and told info Scott NER lives from post, not of the new york's stock exchange. This make a break hour begins with the bulls stand peeking through landmark levels to polish off. The index is best week of the year here to look at the score card with sixty minutes to go in regulation.

Further follow through the wednesday's huge post election baLancers taken the down industrials as you see there past the forty four thousand marked the S P five hundred above six thousand for the first time you see the S P F about half a percent on the day, a decisive election result and expected growth friendly policy mix under a second trump c ministration. Has investors discarding cautious, reaching for risk. The volatility index is now melt in fifteen or so from about twenty two a week ago, although this is a little bit steady today, even as the index make a new high, tesla shares are the biggest upside contributor to the S.

M. P today, given elon musk closest to president elect a trump. The stock of thirty percent or self on the week eight, nine percent today, and treasury ies are steady a day after the federal reserve deliver a quarter point rate cut, with more possibly to come. The ten year treasury yield is actually tracking to be down a bit on the week after I had that break pop to a four month and four forty five on wednesday. It's now four thirty or so.

IT takes us to our talk of the take with an already strong bull market getting an extra kick from anticipated policy help and the fed loosening policy into a sturdy economy, what's not to like? Let's as camera does in new age wealth chief investment officer is great to see you to see you. It's sort of the line at all up like that, that looks like Green likes as far as you can see. Is there anything to bring into the conversation to complicate the story?

I do think we have to respect the uptrend, which has been just so very powerful this year. And clearly, through the election, we remove the tail risk of potentially higher corporate taxes and maybe higher regulation, which is certainly something that the market is celebrating. We cannot ignore that valuations are very stretched at twenty two and a half times earnings.

We also cannot ignore that earnings estimates themselves have actually been getting trimmed over the last couple of months. And so you're seeing this divergence brew where the upside of the market really driven by sentiment, driven by valuation, not necessarily because of fundamental change in the earnings pictures. So we think we have to watch that the most closely over the course of next couple of months.

And I mean, the valuation has been certainly a little bit of shadow on the market for a while more so now twenty two and have times that you mentioned is pretty much as high as it's been since the post pandemic boom when earnings were probably a little more depressed. And you mention yet two seventy five is where S P earning for next year being cut back to a little bit. So whatever you say, it's still twenty one times next year number. I guess you would counter that by saying in a bull market if the stories lined up and right now, you have this ability to believe that either the cycle can sustain itself for longer than we expected or IT can accelerate to a degree in a private sector friendly way. I may I think that seems .

to be the chat. And I do think that valuations at the at the end of the day, need a catalyst order to be able to be a true weight on the market. And what you typically see is that evaluation start to fall when you're cutting growth estimates, when you're cutting E P S estim, when people are getting more concerned about the outlook.

So even though we're now pushing up against those twenty, twenty hides into your point, those were twenty twenty hides based on depressed earnings and the fed that was growing money supply at thirty percent, you were flooding markets with liquidity. Very different story. But until you start getting a question about growth, then we do think that valuations keep potentially drifting higher. Is why valuations are a poor timing tool really helpful for the five year? Not at all helpful for .

one in terms of timing or at least tactical considerations right now. You can't really stand in the way of that kind of momentum move we saw a couple of days ago. Usually that tells you again, you say the trend is pretty dirty. But what about your expectations for whether we need to cool off little .

what we are over? Bot, if we look at things as something simple as the R S, S. So IT is expected or or would not be too much of a to see a little bit of a digestion.

But to your point, you did see that read search. You saw the number of twenty days highs surge to fifty five percent. You had folks like jeff to graphs saying that you've effectively gotten escape for oc.

These are things you typically do not see at market tops. IT does not mean that you can't digest the power of the move mostly if we have something like a CPI that comes in a little bit hot next week, which can jostle markets, for example. So of course, we have to keep those things in mind. But usually the track record of breath searches is positive.

IT is IT certainly eventually positive. Almost everything we could dial with ahead twelve months or so IT IT usually resolves to the upside. Let's bring in key learner of tourist wealth and center cho a point with capital management into the conversation.

Keith, love your take here on where the market has brought us at this point of the six thousand level. It's above most strategic targets for the end of the year, well above the medium. I think where do you think we should expect to go there?

Will hate my great to be with you. And Cameron and crew are it's it's been a strong market and and we've been trying to keep things you know pretty simple in our work, right? I mean, you've talked about IT sticking with the prime trend, which is still positive.

Uh, we do have the fetch l on on our on on our side, even if they skip a meeting, they're more likely to ease and raise at this point. We have global such of basks is and and we need to look more at forward earning estimates of the blended estimates. Those are still moving higher or beer at at a slower pace.

And they have before valuations, which the discussion has rounded around our discussed is high as as cameras mentioned IT. It's tough to make a short term trade evaluation. I think that tells us more about the long term returns are likely to be someone lower.

We also know that credit spreads today or lowest level in decades. So that's also showing some confidence as a whole. And then finally, you know seasonality when we are up big through october, more than fifteen percent for the S M P. Five hundred. Uh, the file two months have been up ninety, eighty, twenty times.

So I has a positive, Michael, you said like when everything seems like it's it's all working rows like what's gonna hit us? I mean, there's probably something from love, field sentiments and or maybe a liberate stretch, maybe some choices. Ss, after this round number. But all in all, we still think that you want to stick with that primary .

up to and fair up and sanda. If you as you talk to clients here after the election and you had this focal point of anxiety and expectation around IT, now we have resolution. The market has relaxed a lot.

We're up twenty five percent in the S M. P. Five hundred years to date. What would you be telling them in terms of whether r the world has changed in a favorable way or it's more the same? Or should we expect some?

yes. I mean, you know, this is post election, and we knew that half the population was not going to be happy with the outcome. And so I am dealing with clients that you know are unhappy.

But what I focus on is that the elections are over and the markets like certainty. And I agree with Cameron as far as there is massive and keep that there is massive in the markets right now. A few weeks ago, I called the s five hundred at six thousand five year and and know we hit today.

So now we're looking our base case is sixty one, twenty four year. And we do think that you know the marker is going to continue. This trend is going to be strong. We look at consumer sentiment, it's up. And you know we do think that the year is gna end, you know well.

yeah, that would be another just couple percent from here. Sixty one, twenty eight camera. I guess the question too is whether the character of this bull market has changed at all.

You know, there is this sort of pretty clear message on wednesday's market action, where IT was like, okay, let's just execute the textbook trump trade, which is small caps, 分 angles and circles value to some degree。 And then actually a lot of stocks were down like defensive stuff and yellow sensitive. To what degree are we making any kind of a short pivot? Or is IT again, not necessarily much of the IT?

Seems like we played that twenty sixteen playbook for one day. VS. What happened in twenty sixteen is that lasted about two months, and then I started to give IT back up. So one of the things we're watching really closely as growth verses value, simple ratio, but you continue to see growth still outperform even post election, which just suggests that maybe some of that leadership in the mag seven that everybody is expecting to start to fade, at least for now, is hanging in their maybe that is because of text less strength. So clearly, there is a difference today versus what we had in twenty sixteen.

And so it's a question of do we see a continuation of things like the small cap trade? Even though you are seeing small cap earnings continue to get cut, valuations aren't that cheap. So clearly, there's a lot of questions as to how far we can extend the tub trades.

Yeah, he's waited on that just in terms of whether it's time to step away from the sort of growth quality leadership we've seen in this market for a while. The market captain S P, and decide to get either more circle collar or look for lagers.

Yeah you know it's it's interesting in our work. You know our overweight right now or from three different aspects. We have technology, which we've been overweight most of this year.

We think the AI stories intact and earnings are attack were overweight financials even before this. We think of the economy day's brazilian credits tight emanate picks up. That's all good for the financial technicals are good.

They're also overweight utilities, which historical have been defensive, obviously little bit of a the rival player on A I yes, A I didn't feel great about utilities today. I feel Better. So we is almost as if it's not just it's not just take I mean, this week to your financial, industrial, energy all up over five percent.

So IT, I just don't think it's at all. And I think there's opportunities within and again, playing IT from those three things specifically installed filter to the us. I always say globally, mike, I mean, IT is a big week of of us our performance. We've been teen USA for some time. And no, that's that's going to happen on the trump trade of two thousand and sixteen and we think continues into the end of the year.

Yeah, I mean, does get tRicky at some point if the argument is values going to take over from growth and the us. Is stoked to outperform the rest of the world. But you strangest things have happened, but IT seems like those things pushed against one another a little bit. no.

yeah. And that's why we're not I mean, we're pretty much neutral on value and growth. And I will say, I mean, I think it's good for us to be thinking about what can go wrong.

I mean, Cameron related to this, like in two thousand and sixteen, that was I could be a bigger surprise. Yields were two percent as opposed above four percent. The deficits a lot bigger. And so far, the market is really focus on all the positive aspects of lower taxes to regulation and really kind of putting off the, okay, what happens with terrorists and orderly, the policy outcomes is wider. So at some point, I think theyll be account baLance for that market and sentiment, but maybe that's going to be a little bit the light, maybe as later this, you are really more likely in the first quarter ah that we have to deal with some of the policy and certy yeah I mean.

what what standard basically reflection's policies into an economy that's been kind of barreling ahead for a while and we've tried to get inflation to control sort of a funny mix sanda. Wondering what your thoughts are about the bond market here. It's, I guess, commonly said that IT seems like treasury yields could be the orbital of whether this policy mix has runway, whether equities can hold valuation.

We've got a little bit of a scare from among some people that the ten year yield was gonna maybe on anchored here. It's not yet done that after the fed cut by twenty five basis point point. We've kind of calm down. How do you think about bonds as an of these levels?

I think bones, right now for your end, I think there's going to be study as far as that goes because I mean, the only thing that you know we see is that you are pretty good right now. And we think that that's gona you know finished the year. But for twenty, twenty five, the concern is, as you mention, that if inflation share to take up, the fed might pass and then that might know kind of up and things just a little bit.

So we're really keeping a close I on that, especially if tf are implemented in the way that the trump administration has mentioned. If they're opposing like a sixty percent, a terrifying chinese goods, you know, that really could throw things around. But we really think that, that just postering in order to come to the negotiating table and implement Better trade agreements.

So you know that shouldn't matter of us because that would heard U. S. companies. And I do think that the administration knows that .

yeah well will see. I mean that that also mimic twenty sixteen, seventeen actually right with the market quickly seized upon the the positive aspects of policy. And then twenty seventeen was full of trade war headlines that would hit the market at least turn.

And maybe we get the reverse this time because we don't get the negotiations around taxes until the end of twenty twenty five. So the prospect of actually lowering the corporate tax is something that we will get towards into twenty, into twenty six. But we could get heros s right away and have to contemplate what that means for things like the dollar, what that means for signal companies. So maybe instead of getting the good news first, like we got last at time in two thousand sixteen.

we get the bad news first. That could be, although I ve often thought that the best kind of tax cut is one that's on the way. I mean, because if you think about IT was a year before the law was passed, the market was willing to just pay for the the prospect of IT over and over again.

I guess the other piece of IT tactically um and Keith, i'll ask you this, you mentioned seasonal effect. You mention this tendency of strong years to finish uh very strong and this this compulsion of people make sure that they're participating toward the end of a year is positioning right now among investors is exposure to the market. Do you feel it's low? Is IT middle? These are still room for d to expand safely.

I think body mal hier, I think if we remember right before the election we saw the protocol rao Spike, the vics was above every age. So very quickly we've seen um that that fear grab the window and we saw the fixed plumet, as you mention, the earlier partial ratio kind of plummet as well.

So I don't think know the one thing I was like to write down in november, december of doing this is like seasonal tim tends to be trumped by the trend, no point intended. So I do think that's probably something more wary for the the first quarter, but I do think we have a bit more to expand before a year. And I don't think sentiment is extreme at this point because there was so much nervousness and anxiety ty heading into the election.

Yeah, I do guess that's the question. Cameron is is kind of just how much has already been burned off and doesn't matter because you you hear people say, well, there's no reason to sell at the end of of a year. And so therefore, the market can can just continued .

up and higher in. The question is, does that create a pull forward potentially of returns from twenty five into the end of twenty four? Because we do know that if you're sitting on big games because you've had a strong year, why would you recognize those games in train positions today versus waiting a couple of months and delaying tax payments for sixteen months. So we do think that is likely that we do get a chase into your end. But then that creates a scenario for twenty twenty five where you have even higher valuations, even more stretch positioning, which is why our base case for twenty twenty five is more high single digits to mid single digits types of returns, very different than the twenty percent plus that we've gotten this year.

sure. Although maybe on top of I guess it's like thirty seven percent over the last twelve months. Many people we take that um we'll see, Cameron.

Good to see a key and sand to thank you very much. H appreciate the discussion today. Let's take over to see the motive for a look at the bigger named moving into the cloth I see forty .

four minutes left and trade my shares of SONY ARM pace for their best day in more than two years. After reporting second quarter results, earnings grew almost seventy percent over year, beating estimates, while revenue fell short. The results were boosted by strong growth in its gaming and network services division, with city animals crediting cost improvements from the latest playstation.

Meantime, shares a pinter are plunging after fifteen percent, about fifteen percent after we reported weak revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. The company's CFO telling animals on the earnings call yesterday that a slump and advertising revenue is likely to continue. Pint still beat on the top and bottom line for the third quarter and improved a share we purchase plan of two billion dollars, but IT hasn't been enough to boost the stock today.

Mike, all I see, thank you. Talk to again soon. We are just getting started up. next. Former fed governor fresh kin tells us what he's expecting for next week. C, P, I friend, that is after this break, the B, S, P, still holding above six thousand and out above forty four thousand, where like the year of stock exchange to watch you closely baLance.

C, N, B, C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. M, cnbc, Jessica, and follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks rally again today, adding to huge post election gains. The dw crossing forty four thousand for the first time and the S P, five hundred crossing above the six thousand mark. Investors bracing for a big week economic data next week, including the C, P, I, print on wednesday. On me now to discuss what IT could mean that the feds december meeting and beyond is fredrick mission and he is the former federal board governor, antsy nbc contributor and and wr ick, it's great. Heavy here.

I mean, you know yesterday's fed decision and and chair pill's press conference really convey a sense of comfort by the central bank in terms of where they seem to be situated in the way of policy, not wanting to really stoked too much drama or suspense about the next move. Does that does that fit for you? Does that make sense given the conditions?

Yes, IT does. Uh, the inflation numbers have been looking good and actually the economies been very strong. Uh, but that's good news as long as inflation numbers are good and coming down on this glide path to two percent, which is to see what's happening, having a strong economy is just a terrific thing.

I mean, the fact should never be seen as being hostile to to economy is doing well. IT only wants to limit the economy when it's growing so fast that in fact, inflation is heating up and that doesn't seem to be happening. So so far so good. This is looking, uh, nobody would have expected the beach as good as IT is now that the fan is really looks like it's getting in soft lending that that IT wants, it's big issues are going to be coming down the road, by the way.

which are those issues? I mean, do they include the the coming inflation numbers? Because there has been a little bit of a sense that, yes, massive improvement going in the right direction, but perhaps a little bit of a pause in the disinflation process.

So I am actually looking long return that um but also remember the monetary policy takes a long time to have the fat uh, we've just had a extraordinary election, uh, and the election of Donald trump, uh, as president. Uh, that's going to create some some very interesting chAllenges for the federal reserve. So one of them is the issue of fear reserve independence.

Uh, many people know truck was extremely critical of the federal erb when I was IT lowing interest rates to his lighting. Uh, trump tends to be a low, interesting man. Justice says he's a arf man. He is a low interest man.

And uh uh when j power comes up for for renew its it's extremely unlikely that I get dominated and then who knows so trump t put in and uh uh and interesting ly a uh you know so far the trump points worked out not because they were all great, but because j power was brilliant and deal with congress so that in fact only the good at point he's got through. I think that that's less likely to happen uh, in the future, jay is is is do to be there s so in fact, that posits huge chAllenges for the face, particularly that i'll be coming up with towards the next election. So uh, that's going to be a huge chAllenge for the fed. A lot of pressure on the fed to to keep rate slow, to boost the republicans that could lead to a lot of inflation. Particularly if trump chooses somebody who is willing to be, quote, a low, low interest state person yeah I mean.

of course, people yesterday pretty unequipped says obviously he does not prove to the president has the authority to fire or demote him so he's going to serve about his term. And that being said too, even though there is the potential, as you suggest, for a lot of friction, the feed is already easing, the economy is already strong. It's almost as if there been nothing really to blame the central bank for at this point. So you know why would would that come to a but .

because this is two years for now. yes. So that be a very, very, very different environment. Uh we just don't know ah and IT might be that the fed uh is fed with some inflationary pressures and has to raise rates and trump would be a very uh, upset about that and that could mean a that he'll pick somebody please they talk about but he wants to choose somebody who who agreed to talk to him up uh and consult that interest rate decisions.

That's the something that should not happen and should not be something that thing the independence the fed has actually served as extremely well uh, in terms of actually keeping inflation under control. Uh, and it's been a linch in of both academic uh research saying that that's good and actually the congress of the president in the past have done that. Truck has been an exception in recent years and I could get even more difficult given given this time around, I think he's not going to make coke make the mistake of appoint to somebody like jpl instead who want something who we can pressure much more.

What would you look for in the way of market behavior to suggest that there was anxiety building about the implications of a fed that was less independent?

What you even see a little bit about the long boundary. So uh you know the the the boundary line is watch is very, very uncared. And by way it's not just this issue of the dead depends the tolin, the terrace s so you know again, two things are proper set about a macao ics is and uh and in most cases, uh, the terrorist action will create again very, very difficult problems.

The end uh because they would if they get get implement, we don't know uh that would actually raise Prices. Uh and in fact it's like a we all a supply shock and make IT a supply shock, something that raises Prices, which creates more inflation. And then the question is what should the fed do about IT? So the I don't see a problem uh, for the next couple of years right now.

But boy, two years from now, it's gonna a very, very difficult environment for the fed. Uh, and we just don't know how it's gna play out. I get really, really this this presence is gonna play out either. Uh, but but uh, particularly, I think that there will be super big chAllenges for the federal reserve at that time. And uh you know what the president does matter on that uh, particularly at some policies yeah I mean.

I guess to some research suggestion that the feed out to look through one time Price adjustments to the terrors but who knows what that means and what else is going to be going on at the time so as you suggest, maybe some room for plenty of of drama as we .

go on with the interesting times, which is great from perspective as a scholar, but not necessary great for the country .

yeah some would say great for you know for the news business too. We'll see if that place that I really thank you very much, appreciated. I up next, rbc Laura cavasa is breaking out her post election playbook sh'll tell us where she's casting opportunity in the market under a trm administration SHE joins me a post night after the spread. And don't forget, you can catch some ago by following the closing bell podcast on your favorite podcast. 不比 我 大。

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnb, Jessica and good. Follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get to your podcasts.

Small cap surging since the election, with the also two thousand having its best week in more than four years. But is that try getting ahead of itself for is there more room for IT to run the test? R B C S Lorry cavasa. And here a post nine lora could see you. This is part of a general set of questions of what, if anything, has changed to given what happened with the election and just general economic conditions and exactly how I should play out from here.

So so look, I think with small caps in particular, we got another reason why they could continue to do well fundamentally. And that's apparently a by the USA trade. And so if and I would also have corporate taxes on to that.

So you look back to the history of the first drop term, we had three distinct trades into small cap. None of them lasted IT was a very fickle market. But in twenty sixteen, we ve got a big surge up on economic optimism around trump.

Twenty seventeen. Another one on the corporate tax cuts, which small caps of benefit more from. And then, if you remember, this one is a little more complicated.

But in twenty eighteen, when there was all that optimism on the china trade war, that china's gna have a recession, rest of the words ongoing to catch a cold, but the us. Is going to be OK. People surged into small caps then that all unraveled at the of the year.

But we did see president for that. And I think there's you know a combination of trade. There's a combination of tax cuts and just general excitement. You know, you have to remember, half the country or more elects the president. We do usually see risk assets take after because the winner does usually get that endorsement.

Now you could also even add just an anticipation of more emini activity and just a general may be higher metabolic capital markets. But what about the other address? And aside from small caps, I mean, essentially it's sort of interesting how the ten plate for twenty sixteen was, well, you got A S and back. Well, that's the stuff that has been for months, at least on the very best.

So you know what's interesting after the day after the election, I went back and looked at elections and leadership shifts in the market. IT started out as a small, large project. IT shifted into a growth value project.

And looking at a bunch of other stuff, back in two thousand sixteen, we had already started to see a shift into growth. And that that lasted for quite some time. When biden got elected, you saw shift in the value.

And that lasted a number of months. But I came away from the study thinking, know when we get these political leaderships ships, even if some of these style ships and markets have already gotten started. There just does seem to be something about changing the political dynamics that results in a leadership shift within the equity market as well. So I think we have to take seriously the idea that some of these things, even though they got started already, may have at least a little bit more room to run.

Does the at least expectation of some of the policy movements give cover to where valuations all right now as I really change the equation in terms of what you can expect the market can deliver given how far away from yeah.

So I think let's just look at corporate taxes and isolation. That's an easy one. We all lived through that one. And what I remember about that twenty seventeen period and even kind of twenty sixteen was we didn't know exactly what the new rate was. Gonna IT was kind of all over the place.

By the time we really got to what I was announced as and the legislation was passed, a lot of the trading had already happened. And so this babe idea that earnings can be higher because taxes are going to come down, maybe it's just a paper e right? This increasing, but that can boost animal spirits.

And I think some of that is feeding into the market right now. Now I will tell you, I have cautioned people when I heard trump speak in new york at his speech at the economic club, he did talk about the tax cut with conditions for domestic producers. I'm not sure the street fully understands that. I don't think we really understand exactly what a taxi cut might look like, but I think the market is getting trumped. The midst of the doubt on that.

Yeah I mean, that has been the pattern too, right? You sort of front low the anticipated benefits and then see if the details conform to that or not. I also, I mean, we can think back to twenty seventeen where IT was like company by company that was pressured to come out and suggest how they were going to spend the tax yeah mean, it's it's a crazy thing to .

you know that was telling my team that the first time I started reading earnings called transparent because we wanted to get that color from companies on one hot was going to benefit from and to what exactly they were going to do.

Now we already also, interestingly, have you know a capex boo mostly seemingly happening because of A I and and some of the know the fiscal measures out there. So is that gonna accelerated from here? I mean, I just seems as if, again, it's a lot of the policy stuff is an accelerant to what's already been happening.

So I would say for taking about tech AI specifically, I spent a lot of time during this on this during the campaign season, both candidate seemed to come out in the same place to me as friendly to A I, you know, at trumped speech. Again, he was talking about how we needed all this additional electricity, a generation. I think that was maybe bitcoin, not AI, but he generally has seemed to be supportive of that.

And that was something I was very focused on to see if we were getting any negative comments on A I R tech because that would be negative for the market. And Franklin just didn't see IT. Now I do think there's in a sort of a separate issue.

When we look back over the last few months, a few quarters, a lot of companies have been talking about how their orders are slowing down. Their customers are hesitant because of the uncertainty associated with the election. We've kind of moved into a situation where the elections, not uncertain, but policy is somewhat uncertain.

Um i'm going to be curious as we're reading the off of cycle reporters looking, listening to conference presentations, is that uncertainty alleviated enough? I think that's another thing. Markets have been cheering. I'd like to see what companies are saying about that.

Thanks is I mean, you could always find an excuse to not do something or to worry and it'll see if company know you talk about people, some complain about front loading oris to get ahead of terraces and all yeah so could be noisy yeah no.

it's true. I was interesting about the market action today. You mentioned tariff. I mean, it's an update in the market, not you know as off to the races as we were the first day after.

But I was looking at the performance, the defensives are leading, materials is lagging. Um there's been this whole debate, my meetings at least. Do you play attention to the twenty sixteen thumped playbook or the twenty eighteen playbook? If you're worried about the troops, the markets not down today, it's managing to take IT and strike.

But i'm seeing that old tariff playbook from twenty eighteen showing up because back then he looked from march to december at the height of the china trade war. IT was the defensives outperforming. Materials and industrials were lagging. And industrial .

isn't quite conforming to that today. But the rest of the are but is this selective? So are very great to talk you.

Thank you. Great to talk you too. All right, up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. Sima is backdoor.

Mike has been a tough day for two restaurant stocks, those names coming up after the short break.

But twenty minutes till the closing ballets get back to sima for a look at the key dogs to watch.

Mike shares of blooming brands are on track for their worst days since doing of twenty twenty two after reported a weak outlook and declining same source sales. Traffic at outback stake fell about four percent. Bone fish grill fell about eight point five.

The company also refrangible part of its brazil Operation, but that did not boost results. You'll see shares down nearly ten percent. Let's talk about sweet Green also moving lower after the salad chain missed on the top and bottom line sense or sales go six percent.

The company raised its sales outlook despite today's job. We are looking at the stalk up about two hundred and forty percent this year. mike?

wow. Yes, not too bad or i'd seem thank you. Test the shares touching their highest level since April of twenty twenty two is optimism around the trump administration impact on the company, boost the stock that market cap crossing a trillion dollars again today. Joining us now is jet door shermer of woman blair, who has an outperform rating on the stocks or jet um if you had to explain with some level of specificity why the stocks is up so dramatically over the past couple of weeks around the election, could you bring you back to what IT means for the company?

Yeah, I think so. I mean, you can have two things going on and you have a little bit of the year and yang, mostly on the end. On the positive side, I guess, which is you less regulatory burden on tesla of look at the big opportunities for tesla, it's probably gonna be, you know, and this takes away. Or if you take a step back and you say, hey, tesla is not just an auto company, but IT, is that a bigger whether it's an energy how we look at IT or an AI in? And one of the big risks for robot taxi, which they just rolled out a month ago, is the regulatory burden on that.

And so I think what you're seeing here is a reduction of the risk that iran's involvement in the trump presence, he is going to be able to probably ease um test let in getting a over that um auto automated a vehicle A V uh heard of on the negative side, you clearly have uh the I R A and risk around that, that's hitting all of the solar names, some of the solar names that we cover right now. But if you also dig under the covers in a bit deeper of what trump has been saying, you know it's unlikely that he's going to be targeting domestic content and tesla has more domestic content for batteries, for energy storage and for autos than uh, in including event of any other company. So I think that's what's just to find the move here and is clearly a momentum move. Well.

exactly. yeah. I mean, I guess that we have been at these Prices before and even higher stock is around four hundred at the peak, but there has been a huge deceleration in terms of you know obviously, growth rates and earning the estimates being caught for this year. Next, you think the market is going to continue that kind of look past that.

I think it's probably in this the opposite of shoot force asked questions later. You're getting all the benefit right now because you've got a couple months before any policies can be enacted. And so I think I think you're getting the you're getting the best case scenario, and I think that's gonna continue to play out here.

You know if you looked at you know if you cut the tax credit for evs, that would have a pretty meaningful hit to growth margins for tea. So obviously, you're not getting that to play out. And I think this last a while.

yeah, there has been a lot of talk to other auto makers would be more disadvantaged of those EV credits perhaps went away. But I obviously, that's a kind of hundred percent profit margin revenue for tesla. They get bored.

So just be agree with from a long perspective, if you take duration of a long term, you know that would be a real positive for for a test.

right? We will think I appreciate you. Have a good weekend.

Thank you. Thank you. You too. Thanks for help. All right.

you got IT still ahead. Cheers of expedia and airbnb moving in opposite directions. Full fill down on those movies coming up.

Took a chairs of cloud flares sinking in today's session and stocked down about four percent after issuing weaker than expected guidance. Don't miss an exclusively with the city of cloud flare that's coming up in overtime at four pm. Easter are up next.

It's been a big week for the banks will break down. What's behind that sectors bounce? And what if I mean, for the space in the new year that are much more when we take you inside the. We are now in the closing bell market home. Seema mody is watching two travel stocks moving in opposite directions after earnings plus y picker break down the big in the banking sector this week and vanity sagas on whether the sharper de in fin tex stocks maybe overdone sima A A couple of travel names moving on results.

Yeah, we have idea. higher. Airbnb, lower. Let's start with the expedia though, mike, because h shares are rebounding after the online travel Operator raised its outlook and CEO are and go and reiterated her focus on efficiency while also finding new markets growin R B C capital bread erick and touting expedia home rental site verbo, which return to growth for the first time in over a year.

It's a sign to wall state that expedia c's marketing initiatives are starting to pay off shares, up about four percent. Meanwhile, airbnb missed on earnings and lower it's twenty twenty five outlook due to rising costs associated with expanding overseas, where executives say it's unpenetrated. Bank of amErica writes out from a valuation perspective, is trading at a premium and that there are other ways to get exposure to the leisure travel trade investing. Now more people are returning to work. You'll still see A V, B up on the air.

Back to my all right. see. Thank you very much. Lesser, the banks have a really quit yet.

They sure haven't, mike, that spider bank etf up more than ten percent this week alone, on pace for its best weekly jump in a year. Most of those games, of course, coming from the day after the election, or investors bit up the sector on further ground, potential deregulation. When ask, where are there ison earlier today whether the election changes her outlook to a group, CEO gene fraser said what we are expecting broadly this to be pro growth and beneficial phrases, said the election results unquestionably helps the prospects of deal making and .

financing we see of a good positive outlook. The pipeline is strong, and I think now it's game on in areas that have been more unrestricted. So we're expecting to see the return of the in a much more meaningful way. Now we've been waiting for that, that, that whole ecosystem has been rather gummed up. And now with the valuations that we're seeing and with the markets very much open for business, I think we can declare the poses will be back.

Now among the big six, Morgan, stanly and golden sex, two firms perceived to harm the most upside in a revival of capital markets were the biggest weekly gainers this week. Mike.

all right. Lesly, thanks. Yeah, that golden move is pretty stunning. right? Take a quick look at shares of spirit aro systems. Seeing a pop in just the last few, a voters report said boeing was close to a funding agreement at the spirit, which is one of bowing key suppliers. The report says the agreement could be announced in the next few days.

That pop did dissipate a little bit there, but you can see on that each day chart where did respond to the headlines. Macan zi, a pretty active couple of days. Infant, yes.

you've got upstart, which uses A I to inform long decisions, up more than forty six percent today, by far its best day in over three years. That move really represents how thin tech is now becoming part of this trump trade. Toast is fourteen percent higher.

And then there's the cyp du proxy stocks that have been surging along with bitcoin. We today, Robin is Robin od is up twenty eight percent and twenty days is fifty percent higher on the back of the election. Animals are trying to figure out whether that move is warranted.

Though coin stock is showing signs, it's very close to being overboard. The question now is how sustainable this rally is with potentially less regulation. And a procyta president, museo s. Dandolo a, says that names like shift for so fight and marketa are poised to rise. And even though you've got block and a firm trading lower after reporting results yesterday, a more friendly business environment under the new administration could boost chairs long term given the built these payment firms focus on S B S. Mike.

for sure, although make you you mention the expectation of perhaps lighter regulation on cypher and bitcoin and other coins of obviously responded to that anticipated and then responded to the election results, what specifically do you think folks in that market are anticipating here?

So the big regular ory shift that the industry is expecting is a change of leadership at the top of the scc Donald mp. Explicit promise to fire chair gas law on the campaign trail, who remember, has brought more than one hundred enforcement actions against crypt l companies. Truck can do that all together, but he can install a new head of the commission, one who might go softer on the sector. And analysts say that that is a big part of what's driving in days and Robin hood higher since both are facing legal fights with the regulator. And IT certainly helps that more than two hundred and eighty procyclical lawmakers, one house and senate seats this week, which bodes well for finally getting a cricket do bill passed into law, which is what a lot of banks have been .

holding out for bike? So aside from a lighter touch on enforcement or going after these companies for alleged fraud, what might be in that bill? I just keep trying to get my head around why the value of the assets going to go up if in fact, the government is is now sort of endorsing IT as an aside class.

let me there a couple of things here. So one, Donald trump s is talks about to establishing the national crypto s stock piles. So we take fifteen billion dollars with a big point that the government already holds. And instead of auctions and off, he would permanent keep that out of circulations. That's just great for Price dynamics. But in terms of the legislation that might be passed through if they repeal something called the one twenty one on its a niche accounting bulleting from the sec, IT would really open the door for banks to custody crypto currencies like bitcoin that is a real game changer. And what I hear a lot of players on what you are waiting for.

yeah IT does make sense especially because you know, me and others thought that once the bitcoin etf came out of was already Priced. And clearly I wasn't. I responded after the fact too.

So anything of broadening the base of owners seem to seems to help IT mccants. I thank you very much. Appreciate that as we head into the clothes, the markets, the indexes have lost a little bit of altitude.

Here you see the S M P five hundred slip just barely back below that six thousand Marks, still about four tens of one percent for the day. Market breath has actually been a little bit mixed below the surface, you have essentially only about fifty percent of all volume in the S M. P.

In the new york stock exchange is to the outside the dw. Trying to hold on to that forty four thousand level. We still are on pace for an extraordinary strong week across the board.

Four point six percent upside in the S. M. P. Five hundred on the week. The next stack is not really been the center of things.

But the russia two thousand had that huge one day repricing on wednesday of six percent. This is now tracking to be up eight and half percent on the week and the back eighteen percent on the year to day basis. So after a half a year when nobody wanted, any small people have migrated back in that direction in the volt index. Looks like it's a lot of fifteen a one ago, twenty years strict that's going to do IT. The ploy bell was in into overtime with modern branch.

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