Stocks Surge To Records After Trump Victory; Palmer Luckey On New Defense Tech 11/06/24
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That kind of regulation, boston scientific bringing the closing about the new ork stock exchange, C V B financial core doing the honors at the nzz x animal spirits were awake and a record closes for the double S M P five hundred nasaa also the double transport to have got a record hy for bitcoin investors just for position after Donald trump's sidenote Victory. That is the score card on the wall street, but actions just getting started.

Welcome to closing over time. I gan brunnen Johnny d is off today. We are awaiting breaking news this hour as vice president commoner Harris expected to speak any moment at Howard university. We will bring those reMarks when they start.

And we have got a big line up to talk about how a second trump administration will impact your money, including Thomas Peter phy from interactive brokers, Andrew industries founder palmer lucky and grey croft founder Allen patriot. Plus a wave of earnings is on the way, including coal com, ARM, wolf speed lift, tripped by and many, many more. But let's get right to this record setting rally.

Joining me now is one track global advisors, head of research and the cnbc contributor, tom lee. Tom is great to have you on fifteen hundred points for the doubt today. We haven't seen a move like that in a couple of years. Where do we go from here?

wow. Well, I think Morgan today is really example to show you that the market did not rise in a an election outcome. If I did, we'd be trading flat. I think it's real evidence that many investors, and this is something we could tell talking to our clients diarist ahead of an election because they thought they'd a lot of social unrest, tic eta. And so I think moneys being put to work, but in a way that reflects there's quite a lot of animal spirits and what in the sector's people are choosing the small cap.

I should know we have qualcomm earnings out. We're going through these results will bring me and just a moment, a mix and toy is also with us now. So so my i'm i'm going to go to you on this one.

And that is the fact that we have seen this trump trade in play today. Where's the strengths of the dollar against other currencies? It's the rip we've seen broadly in equities, especially those from deal makers to banks to anything that's considered more cyclical and economically prone to a stronger growth.

And and d regulation um bickle in higher as well. But we've also seen some some cell fs when in this market under the two, there been a lot of speculation on whether the so called trump trade as IT was being defined coming into today, was going to actually pan out and play out your thoughts. Well.

IT certainly is playing out that IT makes sense that IT is at least as an initial portion. And I think on most of those fronts, it's been mostly just an additional kind of push behind some of the trends that i've been staring under the surface. Again, we've had social leadership for a little while right now.

The dollar has been relatively firm, yields have been lowing up since the fed cut rates and economic surprises of a positive. Now it's just about kind of applying a little bit of that twenty sixteen playbook and maybe sharpening IT a bit when IT comes to things like small caps moving, obviously, banks just piling on, on the gains. I do think there's going to be a question as to the starting point.

The starting point right now is not quite the same as IT was in two thousand and sixteen in terms of valuation, terms of inflation, in terms of deficits, in terms of recent growth rates in the economy and also arguably even in in terms of investor posture of the market. Have been flat for eighteen months before the twenty sixteen election, and we're at forty percent in the last eighteen months year. I don't think animal spirits have been to sleep. They've just been essentially energy that much more with this potential policy. Max, okay.

we've got call come earnings ready to bring you sima mode has the number. Sia.

we're gonna solve a beat from coal com on earnings and sales plus news of a fifteen billion dollars by back on earnings, two dollars and sixty nine cents adjusted versus the two fifty six estimate guidance for the first quarter. A little light on sales, but E P, S was mostly above the street. Welcome does say it's making inroads, inroads in the automotive market to big winds manufacturer lee auto adversities bends are adopting a snapdragon elite will see surging here in overtime. Morgan, up over ten percent.

Alright, see memo. Thank you, tom. I want to go back to you. Yes, we just got qualcomm results. We know semis have been a pretty strong trade all year long as has big tech h. Does that continue here? Or do you continue to see a rotation into other parts of the market like small caps, which has had their best day in three years?

I think IT IT depends on investors time frames. I I think many people who are buying tech and A I with a long term shouldn't be concerned with them into your and but I I think there's going to be much Better opportunities and small caps or regional banks or financial because it's kind of the backtrack Michael talked about that they're languaged for multiple years. So there's an opportunity for them to catch up. I think another risk is that know many the technology companies might be built somewhat hostile from a new White house perspective. So I think with the exception of a few named like tesla or twitter or or x really about many, these may come under scrutiny.

And I should note the rustle two thousand hitting a highest level in three years. Mike, what is the bond market telling us here, especially as we do see this .

bar steepen ing of the yield curve? Yes, it's always, you know kind of multiple a causes usually when ever you see this type of a move, clearly, there is an expectation that we will have stained perhaps uh, rapid growth or at least able to kind of keep this growth pace up in real terms. Then there's a little bit of a bump to markets, ed, inflation expectations in there.

I'm not really sure there's a lot of a fiscal influence to I am a little bit skeptical of that, making the tween real time necessarily get to the long into the bomb market for sure. Those who believe that is in fact the case. But I do think that of clarity on that, I think the significant part is the stock market and the economy can make their peace with yields at this level with the steepening of the yellow are fed probably gonna M A little bit more and in a sort of decent set up in terms of absolute level of yards. If the economy hangs in their .

learnings are growing and time, we might not be seeing impacts from fiscal yet. I'm certainly there's a lot of debate and discussion around how all that will materialize twenty, twenty five and beyond. We do have a fed meeting tomorrow.

We actually have four central banks, uh, with decisions tomorrow. So globally, largely, we are seeing this easing cycle kick into a higher gear here. How much does that matter? How much does the fact that you have the overhang of the election clearing out here matter? And also just good old fashion seasonality.

all of them actually matter. Um you know the vicks market is telling us that all these concerns have really come out of uh, pricing because fixes down big. The fed meeting tomorrow, I think, is really important because um I mean, I have a lot of our clients asking us about yields, and I think the fed isn't going to be comfortable with the long and rising.

That's a technical of financial conditions basically are setting free cut. So I think the fed is dev. And I I think you'd like to see yielders, um you'd like to maybe even try to talk those down. So I think overall, it's gonna a good way to finish the week. I think it's actually a positive till one.

Okay, timely. Thank you. Oh, never mind, I take you back. We're going to keep this conversation going. So tom, in light of this broader conversation, the fact that you have been bullish uh, across different parts of of the equity market all year IT does seem like sp five hundred and six thousand is very much in sight. Is IT time to revise your estimates, especially if you look .

to next year. Yes, margin is november six. We still have eight weeks left and six thousand is you know like less than one hundred points away. That number is clearly too low. I think the seasonality tells us the upside is somewhere between five and as much as ten percent into your and but if the S N P moves ten percent, I think the rustle two thousand, I should point out I B M making a three heart know that could move way more than ten percent, thirty forty percent because the medium p the Russell is ten point seven times or earning. So I I I think there's a lot of opportunities if the S M P five percent to year.

And okay, we've got more earnings lift results out. Dirty bossa has the numbers. I D.

hey, a very enthusiastic response from lift. Investor shares are up nearly twenty five percent in terms of revenue was a beat here, one point five two billion dollars versus one point four four billion expected. That is revenue growth, thirty two percent year over year reporting a gap loss per share of three cents.

We're not going to compare that to estimates since we did not get an adJusting E P. S. But IT is largely the guidance that is powering shares higher third and and fourth quarter guidance largely positive above expectations.

Only bit of softness is in q four gross bookings, but investors are focusing on that, adJusting eba guidance for both quarters. Much Better than what the street was expecting. I did get the chance to talk to see o.

David. Richard. I asked him about that recently announced dorax partnership. He said that there's overlap between the customer sets, but it's smaller than people think and it's going to drive bookings over time.

It's gonna drive frequency, and he's already seeing the quick adoption of linked accounts. He attributes the higher guidance to just Better demand and being able to fulfill at the supply side of that equation. I also asked him if anything changed with incoming second trumpet administration. He said that they've worked with administrations of all different types over the years, noting that the gay economy is now a significant part of the larger economy.

Morgan, right, both to think you shares a lifter up more than twenty three percent right now. Leo will break down this results tomorrow at eight forty am stern on school box. ARM earnings are out and sima mode has those numbers sima. We're going to strong beat from .

ARM holdings four cents above consensus on its bottom line. While sales also came ahead eight hundred and forty four million dollars versus the eight hundred and eight million dollars estimate, the company says it's seeing record levels of royalty revenue and continued strength in licensing sales. Remember, ARM does license its chip designs to a number of semiconductors, is also sharing a positive update on its partners with meta. On lama three point two, which uses arms, CPU were looking at shares down about three per set. I would point out a circuit arter guide did come in line with expectations and the bar was pretty high going into this report.

Sima, thank you. Don't miss the first on C. N, B, C. Interview with ARM CEO. Tomorrow at ten I am you turn on squad on the street. Mike, going to get your response to these results, especially given the fact that for lift in particular.

big move yeah um this is not the kind of market where um you know neglected and hated stocks are gonna react in a mild way when you get any kind of an upside surprise. So I would interpret IT that way. Just the upside in terms of ridership and h and revenue is just enough and h it's a very twitchy market for anybody who was shorter under and then that be my take gun on the immediate response there.

All right. Uh, tom, want to get your final thoughts here, especially we did see this monster move in equities. And just how much of this is potentially pull forward? Just how much more room there is to run here? What you'll be watching most closely as you do position yourself for as a trump two point of future Morgan.

I think maybe the most important thing for those tuning in is to realize twenty, twenty four has proven this is an incredibly strong stock market. You know, rising eight at a ten months. It's really maybe one of the it'll end up in one of the ten best years ever in history, the market, but that means investors shouldn't be skeptical.

I mean, there are now fundamental tail wines coming into play with animal spirits and the fed. Davis h. So I think people should just sort of be ready to buy the dips and stay invested.

A and mike, are as we do go through earnings here and that continues, uh, how much does that now contribute to or continued to contribute to the narrative versus of these more macrophages of the discussion?

Yeah, I think in general, it's still supportive and we're most of the way through the the market capitalist, at least to the sop five hundred, uh, most of IT kind of fAllen in line with the longer term expectation of a return and broadening of a earnings score wth.

But I do think that there's going to be a maybe a more forgiving nature, uh, for some companies or at least for the market as a whole initially as investors feel like they want to kind of grab hold of the potential maco tail wins that time talking about. I don't think it's it's necessarily all clear stalling with this phase of IT where kind of hope come first and then reality might intrude. I'm going to be mindful of weather. Investor and trader sentiment gets a little bit over excited in the short term. I don't think that's necessarily an imminent threat, but that's the kind of thing you would look at as we get toward iran and people maybe continue to chase and get their growth expectations to be a little bit elevate.

We've got more earnings. Take two results around Steve. Quebec has those number of Steve.

Yeah, we're gonna shares are down a bit here on these results liming random off to revenues or a slight beat at one point four seven billion dollars adjust. The street was looking for one point four three billion dollars. As for E P, S, this is a loss of two o tube her shared.

That's a gap loss not comparable to estimates guidance. A little light here for q three, just barely underestimates. But they are also regarding the launch state or launch window rather for that new grantham total game and fall of next year, we see shares here down nearly four percent morning.

Okay, you've come back. Thank you. Make go back to you. I'm going to ask you a question that you're probably gonna realise at me for but doughy ah and I know we can pop o IT and say that no, this is old and its outdated at set up. But the fact you do with the double and sports closing at a record high, how much of a positive signal from technical standpoint is that .

it's absolutely positive when you have more stocks and more to stocks going up along with the broader market, I see a little more as a removal of a negative or the the avoid IT have a negative because usually what you don't want to see is one making a new high and then the transports lagging behind and not confirming IT. Although by way, I think conventional doubt theory, but also want the utilities to be joining as well. They're not supposed to move contrary. So we'll see if that has a little bit of of a starter step in that trend given where rates are going.

We've got health beauty earnings out in. Courtney reagan has those numbers for us. High court. I more going to another strong quarter for elf beauty, beating the street street estimates by quite a what large margin coming in with earnings of seventy seven cents.

The street was just expecting forty three Venus, also beating three hundred and one million dollars compared to two hundred and eighty six million estimated. Then they are also upping their full year forecasts for twenty twenty five for both revenue and earnings. So the revenue guidance is now above the street.

The E. P S, however, is about a, the midpoint is slightly below where the street is guiding. And I would note that they had a pretty big, big year in this quarter, as I noted.

But the guidance for E, P, S is not being pushed up as high, which is somewhat interesting still, shares reacting positive, up twelve percent. They were up as high as twenty percent just a couple moments ago in the CEO notes, a twenty third straight core of sales and market share. Games there for health, beauty, back of you. All right, courtney, and thank you. We've got wolf speed earnings out.

Mo Morgan grade picture here from wolf speed first quarter uh results a smaller than expected, adjust the loss on its bottom line. However, revenues did come in below street expectations and its second quarter outlook Morgan, uh, downbeat worse than expected, its reducing its capex, sky some common areas.

We poured through the earnings report about driving Operational improvements, taking action to enhance sufficiency, a line the business with current market conditions. One of the issues this company has faces just higher expenses related to silicon carbine, a key component that goes into the semiconductor sector. As you may remember, this is a company that just won a grant from the U.

S. Chips that or is on is on tap to receive that money. So we will see how this specific financial performance could impact that dispersal of funds and of course, the election to a big part of IT. Let's look at shares. We are down thirty percent in overtime.

More to come now. right. Sim, thank you. timely. I'm going to go back to you because we saw golden take a bit of a breather today, but bitcoin had a big surge, john. Ten percent at record highs broke through technical levels we saw earlier in the year. Your thoughts .

um I think I think big coin is moving up for the right reasons. Um president trump is running out of platform that was not only pro bitcoin but really the notion of bitcoin potentially becoming A U. S.

Treasury treasury reserve asset and the U. S. Potentially becoming the largest holder of the coin over the toshi.

So I think that if someone was constructive on the idea that digital money is secure and it's IT got validated because financial institutions like ackrill ported now, we might have the U. S. Government actually owit as reserve asset. So I think it's very bullish, ed, for bitcoin and some of the proxies like microstrip, gy or similar or the big coin miner. So IT, I don't thin's too late to own IT here.

okay. timely. Thank you for joining us, mike and holy. Thank you. We will see a little bit later in the show with the dough surging fifty hundred points, the S M P of two and a half percent and the nazi pinioning up almost three percent today.

Will the defense sector getting a big boost following the election results as well? In defense tech, AI, silicon valley, these are growing more important for the government's innovation in national security and on the battlefield. So what will that amic look like under a second trump administration? While joining me for a first on cnbc interview is Andrew cofounder palmer lucky. He's supported Donald trump in the election and palmer's always great to have Young welcome know I did not just .

in this election I supported in last time around and I support him in twenty sixteen. And I don't know if you know this, I actually want a letter to download trump p in two thousand and eleven telling him that he should run for president. I've been on the tech for trump train for longer than just about anyone. And I i've been i've been puni shed for, have been fired for and, you know, finally win. It's it's kind of nice and I won so much, tired of winning, but i'm get there.

great. So so if so, if a troubled administration approached you to work with them, the administration then would you look.

I think that i'm doing a pretty good stuff inside of Andrew. I started the Andrew because I wanted to help transform U. S. National security, save taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars by making tens of billions of dollars.

I think that's probably, or I would need to be now if someone calls me up and says there is this incredible role where you can make an incredible impact of, i'd probably have to answer the call. I've got a lot of my ego wrapped up in believing that what i'm doing is the best thing I could be doing for my country. So someone would have to convince me that is the best thing I could be doing.

I think it's getting hard given how things are going in the end, all i'm actually feeling good even without me in in the administration. I think me to change canada. He very much wants to baLance the budget.

He wants to save money. He wants to get more for less. I'd think it's pretty interesting. You saw trump s last time around get personally involved with the negotiation of major D O D contracts, including with things like air force one. I think that something you ever really seen with presidents in a long time, direct involvement in trying to get more for less out of our defense budget, I think that's great.

I I actually also think the president trump is not going to politicize the the defense procurement apparatus, which I really appreciate to your contrast that think you saw senior democrats saying we need to take away contracts from people on the basis of their political views because we were are injecting themselves into the democratic process. Anderson, a non partition company. I'm a republican.

I am the founder, our CEO brian jim, tho, he's a democrat. He fundraised for camera. He, he hosted fund raisers for other democrats and cycle as well.

But the idea that we need to be the strongest military in the world is really non partisan. Thank goodness. Outside, maybe like jill stein.

I don't know. Okay, i'm glad you brought up their force one because we did see that with the air force one, we thought with thirty five as well. But in the air force one case specifically, part of what was notable there, there was the shift to a fixed praise contract that happened and and IT shifted risk from and the financial uh, ties associated with risk from the government and thus the taxpayer to the company, which in that case has been boeing. And we've seen that showing up in quarterly earnings and everything else with charges.

So IT raises the question, do we see more of that type of contracting moving forward? And I know you and I have talked about this in the past. What does IT mean that you need to actually increase defense spending then to get more? Or can you do IT with less?

I think you can do IT with less if you do IT right. Look, I strongly believe in contractors being accountable for what they do. That is lutches to have a business model that allows companies to fail at what they do and make money.

And the more they fail, the more they make that. This is the terrible thing about cost plus contract. You can also make more money by doing a lesser job, a worst job, by being late, by being more expensive.

And and now i'm worried that you have major defense contractors, including boeing, including razon, saying that they are going to move away from even biding on fixed Price contracts into a certain integration. That's an attempt to pressure government out of business models that do make sense for the taxpayer. I I said IT again, i'll say set up before, say again, my goal is to save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

I don't think that sticking with the current contracting model is going to get there. I I think if you select the right companies, you with the right business models, you can succeed and spend less. I think another great example is a little bit outside of duty.

Look at, for example, what space sex has done in space launch, making launch literally a thousand times cheaper than IT was when you have the government doing traditional cost plus work with a variety of different airspace contractors. I think that, that is the type of innovation we need to bring to the D O. D.

There's a lot of things that we could be building for ten times less, a hundred times less, maybe even a thousand times less and be more effective. That's the way we going to get to the mood. That's the way we're going to get to mars. That's the way we're going to come in multiplying italian eventually extra solar civilization and is the way that we're going to defend free shipping lanes in space or asteroid colonies and everything else that's not going to happen on a cost plus space.

I'm glad you brought up space x, because space ex plentier Andrew as well have really forced the path for defense tech companies, new players, upstarts to come in and do work with the D, O, D and others in government. And I wonder what you think in on mush is going to bring to the table with this administration. However, that that role plays out when we are talking about cutting red tape, cutting bureaucracy and cutting spending. Well, at least .

particularly defensive, elon actually tweet last night that we need to uh, figure out how to be smarter and defense spending and that we need to incentivize more innovation, getting more companies involved. Really, we just need more competition.

Remember, we've seen consolidation and see end of the cold war from dozens of defense contractors winning major programs to know eighty percent of the money going to just five companies, thirty percent of major weapons systems contracts, having a single bitter that lack of competition is not healthy for our country, is not healthy for our economy, certainly not healthy for our military. I often joke that other defense companies have raised more money off of my success of the world than we have. And that's for saying something, given that we raised billions of dollars in our last round was at a fourteen and a million of evaluation. And I think that that is a that is a really good thing when a few years ago, there was a point where, since the end of the cold war, and real amount here were the only defense unicor sense, the end of the cold war in dern hir work over a billion dollars.

We're going to have to wrap this up. I appreciate the time we ve got to get to vice president Harris, who is stepping onto the podium at how university with her confession speech.

Good afternoon. Good afternoon. 对。

Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. good. afternoon.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

So let me say, and I love you back, and I love you back. So let me say, my heart is full today. My heart is full today.

Full of gratitude for the trust you have placed in me, full of love for our country, and full of resolve, the outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for. But hear me when I say, hear me when I say, the light of america's promise will always burn bright. As long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting.

To my love of dug in our family, I love you so very much. To president vide and dr. divide.

And thank you for your faith and support. To governor walls and the wall's family. I know your service to our nation will continue.

And to my extraordinary team, to the volunteers who gave so much of themselves. To the poll workers and the local election officials. I thank you. I thank you all. Look, I am so proud of the race we ran and the way we ran IT and the way we ran IT.

Over the one hundred and seven days of this campaign, we have been intentional about building community and building coalitions, bringing people together from every walk of life and background, united by love of country, with enthusiasm and joy in our fight for america's future. And we did IT with the knowledge that we all have so much more in common than what separates us. Now I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now.

I did IT, but we must accept the results of this election. Earlier today, I spoke with president like trump and congratulations ted him on his Victory. I also told him that we will help him and his team with their transition and that we will engage in a peaceful transfer of power.

A fundamental principle of american democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results. That principle, as much as any other, distinguishes democracy from monarchy or tyranny. And anyone who seeks the public trust must honor IT. At the same time, in our nation, we owe loyalty not to a president or a party, but to the constitution of the united states.

And loyalty to our conscience and to our god. My allegiance to all three is why I am here to say, while I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fuelled this campaign.

The fight, the fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect amErica at our best, that is a fight I will never give up.

I will never give up the fight for a future where americans can pursue their dreams, ambitions and aspirations, where the women of amErica have the freedom to make decisions about their own body and not have their government telling them what to do. We will never give up the fight to protect our schools and our streets from gun violence. And america, we will never give up the fight for our democracy, for the rule of law, for equal justice and for the sacred idea that every one of us, no matter who we are, are where we start out, has certain fundamental rights and freedoms that must be respected and upheld.

And we will continue to wage this fight in the voting booth, in the courts and in the public square. And we will also wage IT in quieter ways and how we live our lives by treating one another with kindness and respect, by looking in the face of a stranger and seeing a neighbor, by always using our strength to lift people up, to fight for the dignity that all people deserve. The fight for our freedom will take hard work. But like I always say, we like hard work. Hard work is good work, hard work can be joyful work, and the fight for our country is always worthy IT is always worth IT.

To the Young people who are watching IT is 还 拉 一下。 So the Young people who are watching IT is okay to feel sad and disappointed, but please know it's gonna okay on the campaign. I would often say when we fight, we win.

But here's the thing, here's the thing, sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn't mean we won't win. That doesn't mean we won't win.

The important thing is, don't ever give up. Don't ever give up. Don't ever stop trying to make the world a Better place.

You have power. You have power. And don't you ever listen when anyone tells you something is impossible, because IT has never been done before?

You have the capacity to do extraordinary good in the world, and so that everyone who is watching do not despair. This is not a time to throw up our hands. This is a time to roll a bar leeves. This is a time to organize, to mobilize and to stay engaged for the sake of freedom and justice and the future that we all know we can build together. Look, many of you know, I started out as a prosecutor throughout my career.

I saw people at some of the worst times in their lives, people who had suffer great harm and great pain, and yet found within themselves the strength and the courage and the resolve to take the stand, to take a stand, to fight for justice, to fight for themselves, to fight for others. So let their courage be our inspiration, let their determination be our charge. And i'll close with this.

There's an ad and historian once called a law of history, true of every society across the ages. The ad is only when IT is dark enough can you see the stars. I know many people feel like we are entering a dark time, but for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here's the thing, america, if IT is, let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant, brilliant billion of stars. The light, the light of optimism, of faith, of truth and service.

A two. And may that work guide us, even in the face of setbacks, toward the extraordinary promise of the united states of america. I thank you all. Mega blessed and mega bless the united states of america. I thank you.

That is vice president comm la Harris at her own motor Howard university, delivering her concession speech on the heels of the outcome of this presidential election, saying that he spoke to president elect trump earlier and congratulate later on his Victory. While quote, I can see this election, I do not can see the fight that fueled this campaign going on to talk about how they will continue to wage this fight in the voting booth, in the courts, in the public square, inquired their ways, including how we live our lives, and that this is not a time to throw pounds, but a time to roll up sleeves.

Well, wall streets rallying on the election results with record closes across the board and the financial sector saw the biggest jump, with brokers searching as well, including the actor brokers, which close at a recd high touring is now th's Peter phy and interactive brokers founder and chairman. It's great to have you back on the show, and that's exactly where I want to start with you. The fact that we saw this major move in financial stocks, including your own, in part perhaps because investors are anticipating deregulation here and more capital markets activity, are the moves warranted?

Well, I don't know if David warrant ted to the extent that they have been. But you know.

we certainly .

are looking at Better, Better environment from a regulatory standpoint, and that is going to be a great develop because, uh, regular the regulators up to now have been, uh, yes, you know, we had fine left and the right. Everybody in the business was fine for hundreds of millions of dollars. And I don't know to what end, but it's good that, that is going to be over soon.

We we seen massive moves in the markets over the past college twenty four hours across asset classes. We saw another online trading platform, Robin hood, saying that last night was its biggest ever equities over night sessions since launching a twenty four hour market. What have you seen .

on interactive brokers? Are we had absolutely the same experiences affect the overnight before. And uh, yes, the the overnight trading volume is is, is very substantial, is growing very, very quickly. I think that in a few years, there will practically be no difference between trading during the day and trading at night. Liquid to be equally good twenty four hours a day.

I do want to ask you, and last time you're on with me, we talked about the prediction markets. You have launched these products, these forecasts contracts. We saw them being traded coming into this election yesterday.

We had venture capitals keys boy on I asked him about the prediction markets and and he said that he think this is going to be quite exciting. The biggest issue here is liquidity. But that as you see more and more liquidity come into the markets, um that there really could be a big opportunity here. So I wonder what you think it's gonna to see more liquidity coming for prediction markets and also how big of an opportunity this is going to be or already is for interactive brokers.

Well, I think I think this is going to be a huge market because we are basically asking existent al questions from people like uh, global warming economic indicators as to uh, what levels they will reach. And this is this is going to be a larger market, in my view than the actives market, uh, maybe in fifteen years also because it's going to take A A long time to grow, but IT will grow very, very quickly. And IT is basically a global marketplace. So uh, IT is IT is going to be the questions are equally relevant for beat people, people wherever they live around the world.

interesting. Thomas Peter. Phy, thanks for joining me today.

Great to have you on. Thank you.

Here's another name in the financial space that rally today, bg c, which hasn't been mentioned in the same trump trade basket as DJ t or tesler. A bit going, but perhaps you should be. B, G, C is a financial services company run by Howard lta ck, who is also the cocher of the trump transition team and has been a key adviser and booster during the campaign.

B, G, C, among other things, recently launched futures exchange, F M X futures exchange to rival C M E group as well as ice and cboe, with all three of those stocks bucking the rally to end the day in the red. So maybe another trade to watch there up. Next, firmed venture capitalist Allen, and now the tech sector in the VC industry could fair under president electron s. Second, second administration.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to, over time, the aza closing at a record high after your Donald trump was president elect. Tech investors now digesting the longer term impacts for the sector journey is now is Allen Patrick. He is provider and chairperson of prime time partners. He is also a long time democratic donor. Allen is great to have you back on the .

share welcome you provided you.

So i'm going to start right there. What does a second trumpet administration mean for tech policy?

Well, I hope the standpoint of the venture capital industry lets to mention that red tech policy, factual capital does well in almost standing administration. But because primarily exactly today, industries are not a major fact, because all these Young companies that are started up early stage companies are fittis with active capital.

So whether president like truck one, or whether ice president, paris one, that tric couple goes on, finances goes one less and has before. What i'm concerned with today are a really brutal issues. I am concerned that I hope elect truck doesn't go true with a lot of the things that he said during the campaign, which were hopefully campaign, uh, shout out rather than are really going icy that be implemented deportation. Uh, tips, tax cuts of all those I think are not great to the.

I think we're having some technical okay, which had a little bit of technical glitch ah with a shot there, Allen. But I think we've got most of bit I I am curious about the tax piece of this because that's gonna be front center looking to twenty twenty five because you do have tax policy that was an active back in two thousand seventeen and some of that is poised to sunset. So it's sort of top of the agenda given what you just said about venture investing and given what IT means for the start up landscape. Would tech policy that is more favorable to to business though actually be a good thing?

Well, questions, you know, being a clon is a major target of what everybody's concerned with the terms of tech world at her, a activities with the and the entry edit really as well as just department. And i'm assuming that present electro so long mouthful, but every time I have to say that, uh uh, will I be dealing with that? But I think that you don't extension me for the technology growth of Young companies is extremely important though.

Or we have an in a entire competitive at this year, uh IT, IT, IT suck up Young companies early that growth, uh, and they are four cuts, so of a long range growth of a lot of Young, a small venture type company. So I very much in favor lend. This company is nurture and controlling.

I am not in favor of ending up with four, five can behave, said, uh, really a quiet, everything I budge or I watch or favor of, uh, a grow for a broader base and let our technology market dish have been a perfect examples of the A I feld we've seen in the last year. Hundreds of companies are started out. Obviously, any of them or this, some of them will fail and others will grow.

And hopeful ly will have the updating to become independent. A large growth companies on their own brother become divisions of some of the major companies of the country that we we're delivery. Uh, I uh, I I think that word, a very good time adventure industry and prime time, which focuses on a investing in anything that the services, whether its technology for products, uh for the elder generation, uh over sixty and their very concerned with Better care, medicate, service, maintaining financial stability.

We have a wild inflationary enviro that's not good, retired people who have to give one and a fixed amount of money. So work if we have uh irregular, uh, big swings in the financial markets because sense of speak uh, poison more inflation, that's gonna a big concern for older people who have to live. Well.

we'll see how this all plays out. Alon patra koh, appreciate your time today. Thank you. You we have a quick update for you. Nbc news is now projecting commute Harris, the winner of mine SHE, gets three of the four electronic votes in that state but does not change the overall outcome of the election. Of course, still ahead much more on this record post election market, Riley, and how to position your portfolio ahead tomorrow's fed decision when we are joined by cfr s sam, stop, stay with us.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C, N, B C, Jessica adding to follow and listen to c nc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to, over time, the now zag closing at a record high after Donald trump was made president elect, tech investors now digesting the longer term impacts for the sector journey. Now as Allen Patrick h. He is crew finder and chairperson of prime time partners.

He is also a long time democratic donor. Allen is great to have you back on the show. Are welcome .

you provided.

So i'm going to start right there. What does a second trump administration mean for tech policy?

Well, I, from the same point of the venture cabinet industry, lets to mention that red tech policy metric capital does well in almost state administration, but because primarily execution interest strates are not a major activities. All these Young companies that are start up early stage, the companies are filed with the capital. So I, whether presently truck one or whether by president parish, one metric couple goes on, financing goes on less than has before. A what i'm concerned with today or really bitter issues. I have concerned that I hope president truck doesn't go true with a lot of the things that he said during the campaign, which were hopefully campaign, uh, shout out, rather than what are really gonna policies that be inflected, ted, for the best deportation, tariffs, tax because all of those, I think are not grateful.

I think we're having some technical okay, which had a little bit of technical glitch h with a shot there island, but I think we we got most of IT. I I am curious about the tax piece of this because that's gonna be front center looking to twenty twenty five because you do have tax policy that was an active back in twenty seventeen and some of that is poised to sunset. So it's sort of top of the agenda given what you just said about venture investing and given what that means for the start up landscape, would would tech policy that is more favorable to to business though actually be a good thing?

Well, questions, you know, a conky is a major target of what everybody's concerned with, the terms of tech world and her, a activities and the the and time edition, a really as well as just department that i'm assuming that present and true so long mouthful. But every time I have to say and I I will I be dealing with that, but I think that you don't response me for them, technology growth of Young companies is extremely important.

And though or we have an and a anti competitive at this year, uh IT IT, IT sucks up Young companies earlier. That growth uh, and therefore cuts of of a long range growth of a lot of Young, a small venture tech company. So very much in favor letting this company is nurture and controlling and I not in favor vending up with four, five, ten.

They able, uh, really, why are everything I butch or I butcher or favor of, uh, a grow for a broader base and let our technology market nh, i've been an perfect examples of the A I field we've see in the last year. Hundreds of companies are started up. Obviously any of them or that some of them will fail and others will grow and hopefully will have the opportunity to become independent, uh, large growth companies on their own, rather becoming divisions of some of the major companies of the country that we were element with.

Uh, I I I I think that word, a very good time adventure industry and prime time, which focuses on investing in anything that the services, whether is technology for products, uh, for the elder generation, uh, over sixty and their very concerned with medicine, medicine. So be maintaining financial stability. We have a wild inflationary enviro that's not good, retired people who have to give one, but I fixed amount of money.

So work if we have irregular uh, big swings in the financial markets because of sensitive speak uh poising more inflation, that's gonna a thing. Concern for older people who have to live out of money. Well.

we'll see how IT all plays out on Patrick h. Appreciate your time today. Thank you. You we have a quick update for you. Abc news is now projecting commute.

Haris, the winner of mine SHE, gets three of the four electoral votes in that state, but IT does not change the overall outcome of the election. Of course, still ahead much more on this record post election market rally ends. How to position your portfolio ahead of tomorrow's fed decision when we are joined by cfr s sam stovall.

Stay with us. Welcome back. All three major averages finishing with the size of record closes today found Donald trumps presidential Victory.

Let's bring in CF a chief investment strategist, sam stovall. Sam, great to heavy yon. We know who the forty seventh president's gonna be. We know the senate is going to be republican LED the vertical still out here on the house. But walk me through, assuming we either get a split congress or a red wave, what that's going to mean now for the markets?

Well, more than good to talk to you again, but I really think the republicans would prefer a red wave, the reason being that a split congress works best for democratic presidents. We've had six times since world war two, which that occurred, and the market gained the average of sixteen point six percent, rising eighty three percent of the time.

Yet under republicans of split, congress only delivered seven point three percent returns a and a much smaller batting average or frequency of gains. The best performance for republicans, however, was a red wave in which the market was up nearly thirteen percent on average and posted a seventy five percent frequency of advance. So what we're heading toward right now is optimal for republicans.

That's interesting because so much of the common talking points out there, uh, are that a gridlocked government, uh, is actually a good thing. The markets like that and basically what you're saying specifically in the case of a red wave, is that no, that that performs much Better?

That's right. Maybe you could justify by saying that, you know, people call the democrats the party of tax and spend. Well, if there is some control on that spending through a split congress, something that really would only benefit both sides of the isle and that would get approved whereas thers would not, uh, possible. That could be a reason behind IT.

So we shift from fiscal policy to monetary policy. We have a fed decision tomorrow largely expected to cut another twenty five basis points. Perhaps what's more unknown is what the trajectory of future cuts are going to look like. How does and I realized there's a chinese wall, but how does the fiscal piece of the puzzle now help shape or not shape with that trajectory looks like into twenty, twenty five and beyond?

Well, I think IT continues the momentum uh, that we generated today because we had very good returns of across the market. The mid in small cap stocks finally had their day in the sun. Uh and also a majority of the sub b industries did quite well LED by financials.

Uh, but I would tend to say that we think the fed will cut rates when they announced tomorrow afternoon. There is not gonna a summary of economic projections coming out or that lots that will come in december, but we think that there will be a cut in december, but then they probably move to quarterly in twenty twenty five. So another a one hundred basis points cut in all of next year. So the fed will likely take A A more measure approach.

I have thirty seconds left to you. So very quickly, record high. We move higher from here.

Yes, we do. I think that we have a very good chance of possibly a three peat in twenty twenty five. And if not, we have a very high possibility of a positive return with an average, average least six percent.

Okay, sam, so far that was quick. thanks. You got a lot, and I appreciate IT my pleasure.

All right. As I mentioned.

a record day for the major averages. Add the transports to that list as well. In the rustle two thousand at a tize level, in three years, you saw every sector except utility. Well, you saw financials. Leave the games here that as a press here over time, fast money begins.

Now cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc. Jessica ada. Follow and listen to C, N, B, C, business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.