Tech’s Divergence In The Second Half… And Retail’s Holiday Expectations 11/22/24
42:17 Share

Our goal is to empower you to be a Better.

Better you.

James teachings.

I was able to learn and .

become financially independent .

in my retirement.

Join the club with jim's best deal of the year at C N B C D com slash club, like for friday, terms of restrictions, supply.

live from the market to decide a mazda on a night with that out, not yet another record close. This is fast money. And here's what's on tap tonight, a tail of two tech trades, software stocks outperforming the ones red hot summer over the last six months.

Does the rally continue or is the trend about to reverse? And thanksgiving, maybe next week, but we are already counting down to Christmas, will talk to the CEO, one of the countries biggest outlet mall Operators, for his read on the consumer this holiday season, plus the dollar drives to two year high, starbuck quietly closes in on its best levels of the year. And on this friday, each of the .

traders is armed .

with their good to me.

everybody, i'm time of madison tonight from a licensee comedy alive from studio b at the as the echo on the test and I ice and guy adami and remotely really be a walk one and all good to be. Thank you very much. With with a big divergence in two pillars of the tech trade, software and semi stocks heading in different directions in the second half of the year. The I G V etf up IT sounds like I give up that IT looks like .

that up twenty .

two percent ince july. While the S M H chip etf has gotten crunched down more than six percent, top software names making major moves higher in that time. Oracle service now sales for snowflake all of double it's while big chip stocks continue to train lower lam research amid micron crawl come down ten percent or more.

So will the second half separation in continue into the year? And let's get to that. But why don't we begin with your reflections on the fact that here we go again, another double record high, the S. M, P, fifty nine, sixty nine, close to six thousand, and lead me to the tech.

Go stopping. IT. No stopping. Now I had told you, if I said Tyler matheson, there's to be a headline this week that russia fired icbms into the ukraine.

What's going to happen in the market? And you'd be, well, you would said to me to be like what the sp. Easily down one hundred handles.

Yep, the vixit north of twenty five goes up one hundred dollars. Ten year yids are probably significant legal or on a flight to quality. None of that happened. So I guess if nothing else, that just shows you the resilience of the broader market and passive investing being fourth, you first and foremost in everybody's mind. With all that said, I mean, you have to say at some point things can get a little dicey here given all the geopolitics out and all the other things we want to talk about later in the show.

Yeah, let's let's move on then to the question of the this outperformance.

Yeah, the one guy in and you can see to say .

this how we let the show before we get into IT, what are you thoughts on the market? And a is a little defensive.

Tyler. I'm not i'm happy to talk about this because I think, uh, we're going to maybe you can talk about the permits of semis, although maybe this is that conversation right now. So it's partially because I think we've Priced in so much good news that you had a day after, the day after on NVIDIA. Other words, stock finally dig.

give up a little but down today, right? I there IT is.

But as we argued even yesterday, and I think even the three point four percent move today is something that all things considered, the zoom into those numbers, the fact that I think they kind of downshifted successfully in terms of the guide. But software is moving because IT is really seen as the next reverberation. Now you throw A L on the water by what happens.

Well, you get, get ect. Really what I think is happened. But to me, then the ripples go away. The ripples is go away eventually. And I think at some point, what we've seen other times as software have has actually followed sams.

And I think that happened again, I think software ton of upgrades this week, but we heard of from everybody from snowflake, even data dog, who I think in six percent of their AR is is actually an AI customer base. Yet that base tripled in last year. That's the kind of thing you do in software, and none of these valuations make sense.

And we've talked about this with plantier. I think IT was thirty eight times forward sales, which is absurd. But the argument here is that if you're playing AI, you're playing IT to the the enables and software platforms have different ways to do IT. And Frankly, that the way a lot of the consumers are reaching up and more importantly, enterprises happening right now, and I think IT continues .

thoughts on the broader market. Hitting new hides on the door of the smg within a hair of six thousand or pick up on tim thinking on the semi versus software.

So going to be defensive and offensive. And I avoid the question first and then answer its second. nice. So in terms of the broader market, listen, I think we're in essentially everything rally right now going into the video print. I think a lot of us spoke about how we are a bit concerned about that.

We'd like to see IT perhaps trade a little flat or perhaps to just be A A bit more definitive in terms of postings before going in to that print. I think that kind of explains the move that we saw post earnings because I was yet another blow out quarter. I think questions about black supply and ability and back ordering and pool ford of a of ordering there, I think those those concerns have been.

And then in terms of that divergence between what we're seeing from s mate and I give up a lot of those things that takes sells work, for example. But the question was and this is also with some of the hyper scales, this A I related capex spin needs to be justified. That was the prevAiling wisdom at the time.

And and these companies were coming under pressure because investors really didn't feel like they had an accurate answer to that question. You saw sales first, trade off. I don't know what IT was twenty, twenty five percent post earnings.

And so a lot of those names have have gotten beaten up coming into the print. And so that that explains a bit of IT. Essentially, you have like a star player, like a video dragging up the rest of the baLance. And so you've kind of been mired in that drag because again, there's been a massive divergence between A I related capex spin and then capex spin .

going for where do you put money now? July, bill, as between the semis and the software stocks, where would you go?

So things that have a much Better place to be, even more profitable business, they have much Better, Better ble get read 你 i'm always going to prefer something going in， but I think what interesting he me is for this dynamic was seeing with india and everyone now because a little Better, how doing? I don't think that is necessarily sustainable without much longer time to 比较 完了， but one of ten six abroad within ten.

Is this is there something wrong with those other stocks that haven't participated along the chips? Or is this just that in video is doing everything right? Or has has this immense tail when moving IT forward?

I think .

that the average something does not have this mode of the world. 北京 were the actual programing languages is something that even and is something that build around something something that thought of is not it's really takes a very penalty of IT。

All right, we've got a newsletter now on an A I company that is looking to go public. Julia barston has the details. Hi.

Julia. That's right.

Tired core wave and A I cloud platform is looking to go public next year, aiming for evaluation more than thirty five billion dollars as according to a reid's report, and is likely to target raising more than three billion dollars from a share sale. Tyler, this looks like a sign of life for IPO market. There's been a lot of speculation that the IPO market will open up next year, and this would be a thirty billion dollar valuation company in core rape. Looking out for that one back of a deo r.

Julia. Thanks very much. A major average trying to regain their post election momentum this week. They did kind of the out the S M, P.

And as I all login in weekly gains are more than one and a half percent. The dow also setting, as we've been talking, a fresh record close today. But where do they go as we enter the last few weeks of the year? Let's bring in bleakly financial C I.

O. Peter book far, also a cnbc contributor. Peter, welcome. You talk a good bit about this being a too lane kind of economy. What does that mean and what does that mean for the equity markets?

Well, we have a fast lane that includes OA income spending that robust still a helped by not just income, but the wealth effect of higher home Prices and stock Prices. You have anything related to A R spending, and you have anything related to government spending in the slow lane. You have the lower to middle come of consumer of manufacturing that in a two plus year recession, you have th Epace o f h ousing t ransactions a nd e verything r elated t o I T a t t he s lowest p ace a nd t hirty y ears, and you've global trade that is rather muted. So while we see the GDP number, the aggregate running called a two and a half percentage, I think it's much more uh, mixed under the hood.

When you've got uh, interest rates, the market interest strates on the ten year and others at the levels at which we find them today, is that going to make IT harder given where stocks are valued for stocks to move higher?

It's a great question because I do think that is the biggest chAllenge we have. What I believe is a bon bear market that started a few years ago after a forty year old market. And I think we're just still adJusting to this rather sharp rise in interest strates in a very condense period time.

And it's not just in the U. S. I see the japanese four year bony eld close at the highest of since two thousand. And this week a european yells are off their highs, but they have take tired. So I think there is this global rise in interest rates that will continue, not withstanding central bank attempts to lower short term interest rates. The most notable market thing that has happened over the last couple months has been the short rise in interest rates in the face of the fed low in charter magistrates by seventy five, six points.

Tim has a question here. Peter, how about notable in the dollars move? And what does that do for your view? Or someone litter around the world too? I mean, there people have been talking about spain is a great market, the best market, certainly best economy across europe, but dollars move seven and a half percent since the since yellow started moving higher.

And now there's probably a us dollar eu differential that's economic based upon differentials on central bank. So i've just curious what you think that the dolphins to multinationals here or where the opportunity from the or is for for multinationals that get Better and more attractive here? Well.

the dollar actions interesting because, yes, it's rAiling against the euro, the pound, the yen and some others, but it's weakening against the Price of gold. So is the dollar really strong or is IT weak? Or is IT just the Better of other fia currencies?

With your point about europe, while we had pretty disappointing uh P M S uh today, both in the manufacturing and service on top of expectations that then got built into the december E C B meeting, where were now pricing in A A fifty percent change that the E C B is gonna cut fifty basis points the E C B now while their Mandate is inflation, it's clearly shifted to the growth side, which is not their Mandate. It's more than unofficial one, but they're cutting the fed, maybe not in december. It's fifty, fifty there.

And that accounts for that weakness. In addition to that that that economic weakness, uh, the dollar, generally speaking, we know it's chAllenged. It's chAllenging the end because the B, O, J won't raise interest rates in the face of persisting two percent inflation.

And to your question, what IT means for earnings? It's gonna a headwind for multination earnings if this dollar stay strong as the quarter progresses, but also is a liquidity shock if the dollar continues to rally, at which the market obviously is ignored up to this point. But if he continues, I think you will .

get some attention.

Want to jump in? I do. That's a financial turn.

by the way. Liquidity, liquidity.

Tyler was right to mention, as was ten, ten year yields. But Peter, two year yells have going up lockstep almost then if you had told me, you know, where ten yells would be and what's going on with the fed, I would have said the yield curve is steeping in a major way. That's not happening. What are you thoughts on the yield curve?

Well, the two are interestingly going into the september meeting when they caught fifty, the december twenty, twenty five dead funds futures contract was yielding about two eighty five today is yielding close to four percent. So we've taken away the market is taken away more than a hundred basis points rate cuts because we've seen the response in the long into the curve. We've seen the economic data to hang in.

We've seen the inflation data hang in. And I think people just got wait too ahead of themselves. I do though expect a further bear steepening where the ten year yield is most likely going back to five percent, while the fed, while not cutting as much as we thought, is still looking to cut you or termination rates.

But most importantly, j. Pol should not ignore the behavior of the bon market. When he spoke at the last f. Rosea meeting, he was rather dismissive of the rise and monitor rates, and I think that that's a mistake if he continues .

to be I just wanted before we let you go, I want to get your thoughts on commodities. I know you are bullish, ed, their long gold, silver. You like oil and gas. why?

Yeah we were long we remain bullish. Uh, I think the gold stories still has more legs to IT. Uh, I know I had to move after the election, but central banks are not going to stop lying gold just because trump one just as they we're not going to stop line if Harris wh, that's not in a matter to meet seven years old.

The odds rather cheap. The energy stocks, we believe, a very attractive and continue to hold them. And I particularly like also the fertilizer stocks .

in the ex space.

which have gotten very big. Now I, I.

I, I thank you very much. July is A A trade here that comes to mind based on what Peter said.

Yeah, I think if I look at the erie bk, any of the and the condition with only expected, but I think there are a good opportunity is, I think just have a little bit selective on the one but real capacity.

we talk a little bit there in that previous interview. And tim, you mentioned earlier the dollar eighth straight weekly gain, jumping to its highest level in more than two years, closing in on parody now with the euro one to one. Tim.

thoughts here. Yeah, again, I think you have a dynamic which is now Peter highlighted, those are terrible pm. s.

across. Meaning while we had an ism here, that was actually pretty salad. We know manufacturing in a recession in the united states.

We know that the services part of the economy is not only the part that that is the consumer, but the part where there is a bit of inflation. So I think in this case, the dollar strength is actually positive. Now remember, we're trying to also input upon a world where there are terriers are there is at least a policy response.

Some of IT is fiscal policy. Some of IT truly is the dynamic that could have a higher terrorist being a barrier dollar positive for now until ultimately you get a case where this is really a drag on the U. S. economy. So I think there's a limit to what the dollar can.

I think the break at this level here, I think I can rise up to one ten, and I would get back to those asset classes that have been phenomenally resilient in the face of a higher dollar because history ally, this kind of a moving the dollar would have destroyed gold IT would have destroyed the Price of oil. And I understand there's a little bit an oil disruption trade to the market this week. But um I love energy here I look at the move in the xop this week and that was the kind of a move that tells me these are names to .

get back into one one and .

your reaction yeah I think you brought up a good point about multination. So he was like about in the interview how dolan is apologia when I didn't degree. But I think when you start layering on the terms and what the blow back might be, the response might be, uh, from china, from europe.

As everyone diggeth this, I think that's something to keep an eye. The gold trade, I can agree, you know, I know bit corn is kind of getting all the headlines in terms of the move that it's had over the last couple of weeks. But I think gold's offers you upside in a much more steady, progressive up to the right type type.

That was seventeen minutes. The content right here.

I mean.

golden content.

I mean, how long to seventy? And what's you?

How lunch takes? About forty? yes.

Yeah, very nice .

sky coming up.

We got a bit coin battling to break the one hundred thousand dollar barrier while the break you could come and how high the crypto currency can run. We've got that next. Plus the retail giant taner outlet jingle bell rock.

And into the holiday season, the CEO Stephen yellow joins us for a closure. Look at how the consumer stacks up for the biggest shopping season of the year. Be right .

back experienced the power of C N B C prose best deal of the year. Track your portfolio from every angle on one optimize platform ms and restrictions apply.

I walk about to fast money, everybody more records for bitcoin as the cypher inches ever closer er to one hundred thousand dollar mark, the coin getting within one hundred and fifty dollars of that milestone today. The critical currency now up more than forty percent since the election day. How much gas is left in the tank bond?

I think it's equally uninspiring and concerning. So I mean, as I mentioned in this run up near one hundred thousand dollars, I think kind of underscores effect that there's broad institutional adoption. The retail is still our seller. Massive supporter and administration has come out and and essentially said that they're going to be probe coin along with ginza stepping down. With that said, this has a long history of boom and bus type of trading cycle. And being that it's devoid of us, essentially an entrance value, you're kind of left at the mercy of the hurried mentality in terms of needing to be the first one out and not the last one out of the door. So I think that and then you look at the look at microstrip gy, you look at the fact if and work and everything is kind of getting that everything rally type of boost, I think IT is a little bit speculative .

in nature at this point.

Of course. What does not everybody tims that? An amazing job with coin base.

Ba, coin base start though, this is one you talk about. Get over your skies. This is IT in spades.

This is a company's public train close to ninety times next years. Numbers is now approaching the levels we saw in twenty twenty one. So I look at bit coin, I don't understand that, but I do understand valuation and this thing. If you've enjoyed the run, I think you've got to take some money off the .

table and coin base. Tf, there are some start. I think they're now north of a hundred billion. So there's a dynamic here in bottle win reference the gary against, and we all expected that. I mean that just that was going to happen anyway.

The reality is that more regulation in the form of the ACC being on board is really what big coin wants. We talk about the trump two point out is possibly being a world of less regulation, and there's certainly yna ics that's helping other sectors. So I think this is about institutional adoption.

I think this is clearly and as a class where bitcoin as an argument, um I think there's a lot of less uh, ephah arguments out there for other parts of the digital space right now. But that's just you know, I think it's a matter that was part of my call on coin base. I still think IT is that on rap, there is no question.

Um if you look at the rally, we've had an equities. There's been a part of this. We talked about the parts that have been rilling, the whole called the main world, the whole extreme speculation world that comes with digital assets and some of the stocks around IT is been part of the last three weeks and really since election.

And I think that's something that is something to be concerned about as bonomy. Having said that, i'm not going to fight this energy right now. Yes, a lot more .

fast to come.

N, B, C pro and C, N, B C, that comes lash pro, black friday terms and restrictions apply.

I everybody walk back to fast money, a four pack of fast movers catching a ye, the day first time you got starbucks jumping to its highest levels in a year as the coffee chain continues its revamp under new CEO brand nickel and appeared detroit automatic ers raving up ford highest levels since the summer. Gm, nearly three year highs.

And finally, super micro jumping another twelve percent to day, bringing its gains since ata more than seventy eight percent. Now that is its best week on record. The server maker hired a new auditor this week and said IT has a plan to release it's long delayed annual report. Even with the gains, though, the stock is only where IT was a month ago. Let's start with starbucks I thought about because because guy that brings .

me is a nice man is not only gets you those.

but yes.

Well.

a good yeah.

he start getting back to the the dynamic car. You've got the CEO factor where we I think starbucks got the boost IT actually has followed through on a couple very important initiatives. I think the expectation is possible while starbucks is a brand where Operational people fill IT, there's much to be improved.

There's nothing broken with that brand. okay. I mean, the bottom line is I think that's what nickles really pointed out. this.

This is a company that if anything, and I know IT seems perverse given that they have shown more Price inflation in some of their products than others. He's basically saying we're not given the house away. We're actually not even necessary be promoting.

So they cut out a couple these promotions. I think they have focused on the instore dynamics. I think they've focused on where they have.

And I just feel like and now feels like there's someone running the company for a while there. We are having trouble getting economic forecasts and quarter forecasts out of a management team that were anything close to the mark. I think that is much of the improvement in the stock. And in the as the fact that starbucks is a great global brand.

you got a got a real management in there. Now, Julie, I think tim hit IT there that the customer experience is everything. And I think starbucks lost focus on the customer experience.

IT got expensive. They have so many drinks and and things on the menu is that, that they can keep up. And they had they had drivers and phones and walkings, and they are trying to serve them all, and they weren't serve in any of them very well. Maybe nickel is going to turn them around. What do you think?

I think investors will always appreciate when a story gets a little bit cleaner and that there's a refocusing on what made a company great and what is competitive position is I think it's really hard when they're trying to be all things to all people at all times of the day, when they clearly have a model that works best, when they focus on what they're good at, which is more towards the early part of the day.

I also think the opportunity that was talked about earlier in the week of divesting or J V Operations in china could be very interesting for them because I think that, that really hasn't been the market that they had hoped that would be. I think there's just so much more competition than their expected. And so then there's a lot fundamental here .

that looks interesting. Guy want to talk? start.

I mean, they reported basically the day before halloween team. So I won't bo, but I mean, the Operating margins came in year of the year was fourteen point four percent. Last year, almost nineteen percent north american comes were miserable. Mean, IT is not a fAiling business, but it's a struggling business. So yeah maybe drawn on the cups and making things a little sleeker.

But I think the fundamental problems that the stock was under pressure for four year and a half have not gone away as an analyst just came out and downgrade the sock seventy five thousand Price target and if IT gets there. But there's one of two levels, probably the average um Price target of all animals across the streets. So I think is probably fair right here.

Now if we going to take a quick break coming up, we going to sit down with taner C E O steel for a look inside what could be a record holiday season for retailers, the numbers and what's driving the rush right after this back the fast money everybody to sees that we're counting down to Christmas. There's just a little more than a month left to get your shopping done or started. But how is the consumers stacking up for this holiday shopping season? Were joined by tiger CEO Stephen yellow off in the house for his take welcomes .

even good to see.

I'm really impressed by a ninety seven percent occupied y in your in your businesses that is really something in .

this day and age. Oh, IT speaks to to both the outlet category because a lot of retailers ers that want to play the outlets space, but actually speaks to retail in general. I think retailers really hot right now. Brands are hot and the consumers definitely resilient and they continue spending.

What are you seeing in your stores as we head into this holiday season? I assume you're optimistic as as why would would you be? People seem to have money. They seem to to be spending money freely.

Well, october is great for sales. I think that momentum definitely Carried into november as well. And the customers coming in and they are buying big baskets, they're buying a parl, they're buying gifts.

The gift giving started very early this year. You know, november first was really when Christmas decorations started coming out and sana class started coming out. A lot of shopping centers where kids were lining up to get the pictures are taken earlier than usual. And the reason is because thanksgiving being as late as IT is this year, there's five fewer shopping days between black friday and Christmas.

You know you have in in your business, i'm guessing the toward to have been in the outlet to category for a long time. And then there are probably some newcomer's coming in.

You know a lot of the director consumer brands are getting into the outlet space because well, let's take a mac well, in a all bird was in the outlets space for quite some time. Um and now we're seeing brands like safra. These are full Price brands that have never been in this space before but see an opportunity to get in front of a customer they may not ever see in any of their their channels.

How's the customer mixed ed changing if IT is at all the customers your target?

Well, we're being very deliberate about going after much Younger consumer. Um the Younger consumers is proven that they like to shock bricks and water, and we want to make sure that they know that we're there. And the best way we do that is by um give just how we communicate with them, digital communication.

A lot of a tiktok, you know, the the big thing on tiktok is your hall. And a lot of folks like to go into the store. These kids, they buy a bunch of stuff, and then they they open IT up on tiktok, show their friends the things that they bought. But more importantly, they tell him the brands they bought, where they bought them and the shopping center that they shop.

You come on off a great third court to beginning of the month. You talk about focusing on diversifying the tenant mix and peripheral land.

So to that.

yeah so you know we have a lot of opportunity to bring a customer and that we're all competitive to get the customer off the cost into our shopping centers. And that power shopping experience like the one that you've .

had a river head.

right? Just you know that that's something that know a lot of our customers, our core customers really looking for. But that new customer that were trying to get is somebody who's looking for more of an experience. And so what we're trying to do sort of vivid from the shopping center business to the experiences business shopping is part of that experience with Better products, Better food and beverage options, Better things to do when they are there. So we keep the customer on sight longer, get them to spend more money during that today.

Steve IT, so wall street, the ano community, I think, is rewarded the Operational success and the rents, spreads and the the occupancy that that uh, tile talked about. How about op? I think they're also rewarding. No, the opportunities outside of outlets and the baLancer allows you to be potential opportunities. Talk about that where there's other growth opportunities outside the traditional .

that you're used to. sure. We're going. We think that are the team that we've built and our our our management, our listing and our Operational team is as greatest we are at outlets, and that's really our core business.

We've learned. We've learned that we can also execute in that full Price space as well. We're bought a new shopping center, actually bought existing shopping centre hung for alabama that we got fourth quarter of of twenty twenty three.

That's now we've got a full year with that shopping centers part of our catchment. And you know, we think that, that's a business that we can expand IT to. And like you said, our baLanced position for growth.

Congratulate ve. Thanks very much for being with us. Have a happy of the season. Thank very much. What's not around a little bit here. You what what's interesting to me is here's the company is eleven company that has gone through a pandemic, a transition a from a to online shopping, what people go on line, but people still want to go out, they want to hunt, they want to find things, they want to touch things. And that to me, and they want to find bargains.

Well, there's a couple of things that image in the pandemic that, that were really brought to the forefront in terms of that pint of demand for experience. And he spoke to that, really having to be experiential anchor tenants that are bringing in a Younger demographic. And I think that Younger .

demographic for a lot of food beds .

for camp was also overlook and thought to not have the the directionally spin power and being able to anker around them. You have a longer tenant, a sorry, a longer consumer that's going to kind of grow into that business along with you already.

You know, if you had a whole, excuse me, a store branded credit card, you might want to check the interest rate on IT. A cnbc report finding dozens of retailers hiked up aps to record levels just before the fed started cutting interest. Strates, gabby, road from rouge has the story. Gabbi, welcome. good. Happy with us.

Tyre, it's always going to be here. So over the last year, at least fifty of the nations largest retailers increased the apps on their store branded cards. Companies like maces, gap, pecci and berlinton.

Now star cards have always had high interest rates, and the fed rate increases, of course, pushed those even higher. But retailers kept raising even after the fed stopped. So between september of twenty twenty thirty and the temple of twenty twenty four, the average A P, R at a retail credit card sword is thirty, twenty, twenty four, five percent.

And that is one point five, two points higher than the arago period. And this happened at a time the prime rate did IT move up or down. So we gotta call IT what IT is.

This was just all of about sharing on profit before the fed to began easing monetary policy. Now companies like bike lots, berlinton, Michael and peco have some of the highest rates of the industry at thirty five point nine nine percent gap. And T, J, X. Are right behind at thirty four point nine nine game.

Seems so happy about this, right?

I think the.

Positive edge, exposing .

the .

corporate .

dinis .

and bond.

Oh, wow, wow.

I remember .

I have another three.

four and half percent. And that much is .

this whistle stop on the way to forty percent. You know, we could get there.

There are no regulations really in place that are banning a interest rate caps. You, of course, president electrum actually did say that he wants to impose a temporary ten percent PS. So people going to get their finances online.

Of course, the banks will say that this will up in the financial industry. Nobody will ever survive but I mean, even if we have a got thirty five, thirty six percent cake are going to hear bank say that. So I do think we would have an appetizers by partisan support for something like this.

Does this apply to the only the stalker? So if I get a card, often these cards are, for example, I have a nord stream card is great with the room. Of course I do.

It's a not when i'm not at the tangle outlet OK, but but it's a VISA car. yes. So is that is that a different category? So it's a little .

bit similar and a little bit different. So you have some of these cards that are like the maces card, right? You can only use at maces, but then maces also has an amx that you can use outside of that. Your nordstrom sa is a car that you can use outside of your yes, either way, all of the rates were hit.

Yeah.

all the rates were high. She's great to shine a light. And so i'll say this as well.

I think the average rate on a credit card in the united states is twenty three percent. It's about one point two trillion hours of credit card debt. And I think the linux rates are now what to a thirteen year high. So i'm glad he did this, and that's something nobody y's talking about.

Any thoughts follow on here? Well, I think there's .

a couple different tradable dynamics. There's some of this is positive for the retailers because this has been if you look at the financing arms and historically, IT works until IT doesn't. And i'm talking about some of the then you get in the g mac and other places.

But as you think about the recovery that's gone on through the retail space and how they do control their customers, some of this is through yale. Some of these is three points. And it's worked to get customers back into the stories.

But I Julia, I saw you not in your head there. I sent you flipping through all of your credit cards right now. It's seeing which ones of the ire rate.

no. I mean, I think it's a really good point, right? We know that we're over a trillion dollars of credit card debt. These rights are being increased, and none of IT is really that important as long as everyone has a job. But the minute we have any kind of weakness in the employment market, all of this is gonna start to look a wild.

No, truly. Thanks, Gabriel. Thank you very much. Keeping in the position.

Yeah, yeah, good.

good stuff. Are you coming up? IT may be a short week, but it's still jam back with earnings.

That's next week. What option traders are watching is the market gears up for results that next. But first, it's a charter, a loza one, two, three, four names that our traders eyes are firmly .

fixed on right after.

Back to fast money. IT is time for your chart of the week. And today, we decided to ask each of the traders what chart caught their attention the most. Tim, you go first. Well, it's only because we talked about .

a lot of different charts that caught my eye this week so much that was kind of different faculty. And and I stalled and I stalled until I finally came up with ibb. And I bb isn't a difficult one to come up with those for this week because when you think about where we've been in the former, in the vaccine space, but in the biotech space, the pressure from harf k.

Jor on doward to what IT means for these stocks, whether actually is an existential threat or really, really just a whole lot of noise. So I think this sets up for an opportunity. And again, I would look at an M G, I would look at a gilliat specifically, especially when you look at gilliatt's pology business.

This isn't just about a the vaccine space in the things that are seemingly under some pressure. Here is an open, quick action. anyone.

Now let's move on, bone. And what did you pick?

And we've talked about vulnerable latisse. We've talked about year day performance. I looked at hie o credit spreads and and i'm really looking to make a bulcke for the market going forward. You know, harking back to the days of tina, where we had no alternative but to put money to, no, there is no alternative. We had no alternative but to put money into the equity market. My argument here is that if credits bridge remain tight and continue to train lower, yes, the risk free rate will offer you an alternative, but you will likely see ebb flows between risk off into treasuries and then risk back on into equity. It'll take a wide of that credit spread before the the higher levels of the cap stack offers the the the risk war that you'll need to see from that.

Oh my good.

You're next to early october. China put a basically through the buzot at the economy in the stock market, and alibaba a went from about eighty three or hundred seventeen. Tim came on the show, I think, in the middle that move when restrained one fifteen and said, you got to sell some upside calls.

David tepper d talks about buying everything not down, but that was short lived. But you know what? We've around trip the entire move. If you've been waiting, here's your opportunity. So the charter of the week for me is alibaba. On this pullback, we're writing a trend line and think if you ve been waiting to buy the stock now the time, tim, you're not.

I think that's a great call and know guys very kind here. I was selling upside calls probably in the one twenties, but I still owned the position. So on some level, i've written back down the underlying even though I did take advantage of the highball, they've got now probably forty five percent of that market cap in cash. I like .

bobo july. You're turn.

Yeah i'm really interested in the move beside self. You know this is a company that has really strong distribution advantages in its relationship with coke. IT has seventy percent incremental shoppers that are are in the energy during category that weren't there before they are called women. Um and I think what's been interesting as it's been clearly mismanaged um up until this point and what we're seeing is probably the potential for activist involvement. And so this week, if that's really rally pretty, I from here.

very interesting. I didn't I I didn't know. I look at the tiger, I didn't know what I was. So it's a drink. You learn, I, I live, and you learn .

this .

good stuff.

I can be some thoughts and self. But I was a kid. They tried to RAM that down .

our throats.

And remember that old thing.

kilometers and meters thing. Actually, that's sorry.

You assist y thoughts, that's my thoughts.

OK, are you coming up? We're gonna zoom into another monster week of earnings, what options traders are betting on ahead of ones of software stocks results more fast money .

back .

in two minutes.

Walk back to fast money big later earnings out next week. There are just some of them, and option stratus are betting one of these names is about to zoom higher on results. My co joins us now with the action. I wonder what stuff that could be my .

a well IT would be zoom. So on the heels of the big mood that we saw today and ahead of those earnings, zoom traded three times the average daily options by him today and calls outpace puts by about three to one. Now right now, the options markets, implying a move of about eight and half percent that significantly larger than the eight quarter average.

But maybe not surprising given the big pop, the stocks. So the last time they reported and one of the contracts that was seeing the most opening activity with the november twenty nine weekly ninety strike calls, we saw over thirty five hundred of those trade for a little over two dollars. And thirty cents of contract buyers of those calls are ously betting that the stock can exceed that ninety dollars strike Price by the end of next week. That would represent a move of at least eight percent or so to the upside.

All right, my thank you very much. Let's trade that one and any of the other earnings that are coming out next week.

I think my son of something in zoom, i'll tell you if you could, Carter would say this is a barracks to port versa going on over the last four years or so, they're really kicking microsoft teams in the rear end and Operative margins are on the rise. So I think zoom can surprise some people to the upside here for sure.

Zoom is very easy to use compared with some of the others.

To me. I I like the call. I do like I said, I like the fact that this company actually makes money.

Um they don't compare to where they wear the peak a coit. They're finding other ways to monodist. It's not expensive. And therefore, or any good news on growth, I think we'll move the stock.

You know any other names that you're .

watching for next week?

I think next week, we kind of interesting on the retail side, i'm really, really curious about more understanding of where we are with the consumer. Uh, I think north stream always gives a good flavor of the ub and consumer. And then you contrast that with maces. You get a good sense of how we're looking coming in the holiday.

Yeah look at all those retailers ors coming at best by nodes from dick calls, as well as well bath body， you know the bathroom .

bathroom.

Yeah, I didn't agree. I mean, the real earnings are super important, particularly with target still looming large in the back of my head particularly. So are we going to see this divergence of higher and lower higher earning, lower earning income consumer? Or are or is out just a warning shot that the proverbial canary in the coal mine in terms of trouble that we might see, particularly talking about the interest rate and savings rate conversation that we just had?

Last segment, any thoughts on crowd strike?

And I think I like crowd, but I like palo alto more. If you want to get into IT, I mean, they they just got a downgrade. I think the stock was on a basically lower left upright. I think the pull back in palo alto is when you want to be buying here.

Thoughts like if you were brave up to step in, if you had the temerity, you go want to step in a big craft strike after a fiasco on steroid. The bottom here is this is a company that was expensive going into that. There was a reason that people were concerned about the fall out from these large enterprise customers, notably delta airlines, the public battle royal.

But ultimately, IT gets back to the growth that they have here. And relative to some of the peers, crowd strike, especially the area that they're in, in cyberia think IT goes higher. A lot of people need these, need these guys. And you can see IT in the growth in in in the top line.

Julie, any thought here? A crd strike panel auto, the security stocks?

yeah. I mean, I the thing I love about security is that no one ripped out existing security systems. They just lay or more and more of them on top of each other.

You really have to have a lot of technical expertise though, if you're going to be a long term investor in these stocks because their level of differentiation is highly, highly technical. But I think crowd strike right here looks quite well. Position.

all right. Let's take a quick break and come back with your final trades for our final trade. Let's go around the horn july. You get to go first tonight.

Thank you. I thought isn't a conference you up today? It's been a real train map, but I think the new management team has the right idea.

right time, next style. You the man, always great time here. I I think .

every .

time you're here.

I probably tell you those goals. And G, D, X on that cell off is ready, picked up some ground off of the election in this, going higher already from one.

to use a word .

of one of my colleagues, if you have the temerity, the stomach of the google losses, I think you might regret not starting everything into a car position.

Anybody for the university of virgins watching to be in the hall and.

Say Johnson and problems alia there go. Thank you everybody for watching first money.

All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of C N B, C N B C universal, their parent company, or a pilot tes, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable, but neither cnbc nor its a phillida's under subsidy areas warrant its complete ness or accuracy, and IT should not be relied upon as such. To view the full fast money displaying, please visit C, N, B C dog forward flash fast money disclaimer.

your. for. Black friday terms and restrictions apply.